Get started

Big-short

The beginning of the BIG short !Another wave another short, a BIG short ! After the bearish confirmation with the break of the $3636 level on Sept. 27, the first bounce wave ended on Oct. 5, and the bearish acceleration on Oct. 13 with the lows supporting Fibo 50%, yet another wave of technical bounce is about to end. The opening short area starts at $3750 with a more important area between $3800 and $3815 (highlighted in deeper red). More acceleration could occur soon due to a confluence of factors : inflation data, FED interest rates, quarterly and the 50/100 weekly moving averages crossing downward (Death Cross). I will open SHORT positions in the entire area from $3750 up to $3815, with larger positions between $3800 and $3815 The long-term trend remains unchanged as from the first analysis on August 26, with a long-term target in the $2200 area.
TVC:SPXShort
by CryptoReggae
Critical view at world economyFinancial planners and news tooted alot of news in the last weeks, which are novel to anyone of us. Not playing devils advocate here, one could generally assume planners would like to keep clients funds and news are overselling events emotionally, to create attention. Taking a critical look might give clarity in troublesome times. Ive developed two rather simplified scenarios, namely bull (green) and bear (red). To be fair, each should be called bear, because its highly unlikely to see growth this year (sp and other index ratings seem to be slashed by analysts on the daily now). Regarding to the bull scenario, we could likely bounce back into ema region. pro -goverments are finaly mobilizing accordingly (looking at you, trump, johnson) -china seems to be getting back on track again -effective medication might be available soon, who knows The bear told me however, we cant comprehent real damage today pro -banks wont offer credits to small businesses as promised by governments (germany for example), because they dont want to risk credit default -people underestimate dangers and stop preventing virus care, second huge outbreak -fed , european central bank already blew their ammunition - more cash does not cure infections, unfortunatelly - they are not dry, but just creating more money is unreasonable- "bad" companies need to die one way or the other in captialistic systems -ripple effect accumulated to sum of those events -ripple scenario : people go full anarchy, recognising their real estate is dilluted, tax payers have to pay all this mess, over 11 years of bullrun flipped into massive wealth-burn (full bananas bear scenario, just a thought exercise) keep in mind however: -these are some of the best companies overall, technology and such, high margin, lowish maintenance - the rest will dump much harder In case 1, I would really consider cashing out and reinvesting at a cheaper point in time, as a long term investor - we hopefully not reach bottom again, but recovery above the next high will take its time - lower overall bip is not priced in yet In case 2 ? Idk, guns are pretty illegal in europe, so I rely on your opinion on how to survive this mess! However Id have an eye on cryptos, gold and funding local business or such! Trade save and keep diamond_handz!
AMEX:URTH
by diamond_handz
The next Big Short (predicting the next recession)Hi guys, I will be presenting a trade idea that is of a much larger scale. This trade idea involves predicting the next recession - something that is at the back of almost every investor's minds. I will be proposing an open trade at 45.06, which is represented close to the fibonacci 0.786 level, a stop loss at the 51.94 level (which is close to the previous high), as well as a conservative take profit level at 40.22 as represented by the fibonacci 0.618 level as well as a second, more risky take profit at 20.51, which is represented by the previous low. The reasons for the next recession can be summed up by the following statement: a bubble in the fixed income market. 1. Ultra low interest rates by government bonds push yield-hungry investors to corporate bonds, which offer a much higher yield. 2. This leads to the cost of borrowing to fall for these corporates, which in turn provides more capital for the companies to conduct share buybacks, thus artificially pushing the prices of stocks up (which is why we see the S&P 500 testing new highs despite cash flows out of the stock market and into cash and bonds being the highest since 2008) 3. Lesser transparency and covenants by these companies as there is inelasticity and a fall in bargaining power by lenders for corporate bonds. 4. The fallen angel risk as well as the credit downgrade risk has been rising and is at an abnormally high rate at the time of writing, reflecting that companies' debt to equity ratio is increasing. It is only a matter of time that companies will start being unable to repay or refinance their debt, and this will be exacerbated by a mass sell-off of CLOs in the event of a fall in consumer sentiments in the bond market, therefore increasing companies' cost of borrowing and rendering them unable to refinance and repay their debts. I am open to any criticism and I humbly accept that my opinion has many caveats. Do let me know if you guys have any opinions on this trade idea. Cheers!
AMEX:VEAShort
by josephtwe123
XAUUSD: Gold Prepeare for Big short coming soonXAUUSD Gold Prepare for Big Short Soon Now Gold did get the brief bounce expected up to the first target at 1286 witha spike high at 1289 before recoiling again. Another 'reluctant' rally. Now it's back on support at 1274 and this time DXY is holding up and trying to turn around to the upside. It has not broken lower, but so far double bottomed - conflicting near term signals, which gold is likely to duplicate. And if the Dollar is bottoming now, it menas gold is likley topping here, not bottoming as the chart might suggest. That pin bar of rejection from 1289 is very ominous looking. No longer want to play chicken with gold by buying the lows...this looks like it will break to the downside soon. Any move below 1270 will confirm this - look to short back to 1260 in first instance (stop above 1272) and close out here for bounce, potentially as high as the underside of the dynamic support at 1270 again before recoiling once more. Then, if/when 1260 gives way short again aggressively down to 1204 with stops above 1262. Now have zero interest in upside for gold from here. If it rallies will not be following. End of now.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by sumastardon
The big short? EURUSDHi guys, a little update to the trade idea I published earlier last week. Today we had a major bearish day for the EUR/USD, does that mean we can short now? A unexprienced tradre might think so, after all we got strong bearish momentum in the market today. However as a good trader we wan't to establish a portfolio for our trade idea. So lets look at other factors: The DXY Looking at the 4h chart, we can see that price has recently found a bottom after a strong sell off. As you guys might know, the DXY is inversely correlated to the EURUSD. If the DXY moves up, the EURUSD goes down, and the other way around aswell. Aswell as finding a bottom, the DXY formed a inverse head & shoulders pattern, a bullish price action formation. Combine this with bullish MACD divergence we got a indicator that price might correct itself in the future. Right at the time as im writing this, price seems to break out of intraday resistance, which would indicate a shift in momentum. But lets look further to widen our picture. The USDOLLAR Index Looking at the 4h chart aswell, we can see that price just broke trough resistance, and is now testing the last line of defence, a descending trendline. Though the break out of the range indicates bullish momentum, we need to see how the USDOLLAR index will react to this resistance, to determine wether we have a fake out, or a real momentum shift. Combining these charts with the information we already have on the EURUSD, the monthly hightest at resistance and the overextended bullish run, we could see the EURUSD head lower. However to really commit to a trade I'd need to see confirmation of a shortterm trendchange. This would be the break of the neckline on the EURUSD 4h chart, and a retest, aswell as a brekaout on the USDOLLAR and a retest. Nevertheless the confluence on this potential trade is massive, and it is a trade one wouldn't want to miss if it goes. My plan for the future hours/days is to await the break and retest, and then position myself short. I will keep you updated!
Short
by Schlabberlatz