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Big picture analysis on BITCOIN! (Over 100k)What is up my Tradingview family! as you know I have been posting bearish charts on Bitcoin in the short term but today I would like to share with you what is happening in the BIG PICTURE. When I saw a short term correction coming I took profits and reduced risk HOWEVER I never EVER sell 100% of my position on Bitcoin because this is simply stupid considering the big picture trend.. Its better to sell 20% - 30%. BTC ETH I am now in a very good place with a good chunk in the markets and USDT that I have been steadily deploying (AVG DOWN) back into the dip. This is compounding my portfolio! In the short term a correction could be over OR it could still see one more sharp leg down. (this is why your AVG back into the market) when you sell into FOMO its very nice because the worst case scenario you buy back near or below the price you sold - the best case scenario you buy everything at MASSIVE DISCOUNTS. In the big picture I expect Bitcoin to reach $90,000 - $100,000 then proceed to FOMO to $230,000 and potentially $250,000 per coin. This cycle is a repeat of the 2013 2014 cycle (in fractal nature) but can easily FOMO even higher than that one did. Stay profitable!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by High_Altitude_Investing
7
Nova Leap Health Corp (NLH)Executive Summary Nova Leap Health is a consolidator of an extremely fragmented space of home care and home health care agencies. Nova Leap buys them at ~5x EBITDA and subsequently improves EBITDA margin. As the company scales its operations, the operating leverage would lead to margin expansion. The stock price has an upside of ~100% in 1 year. Opportunity 1) Small Cap (50m) 2) Sell side has not discovered it yet 3) Flying under the radar Nova presently has a $2.1m cash pile and a long term debt of $2.7m, debt was $5.3M in August with a $2.7M cash pile Business Overview NLH is home care and home health care services company operating in Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Oklahoma, Ohio, and Nova Scotia. NLH all entered into all these markets (except for Ohio) through M&A transactions. Home care covers such activities as: Dementia care Personal grooming like bathing or getting dressed Moving around: getting in and out of the bed/shower Medication reminders Errands like grocery shopping and picking up prescriptions Light housekeeping Meal preparation Home healthcare covers such activities as: Skilled nursing At-home physical therapy Pain Management Caring for wounds Prescription management Customer Value Proposition Home care and home healthcare enables senior citizens to stay in their homes even after they cannot live completely on their own. Homecare crates a buffer from when a senior citizen needs to move to a nursing facility COVID-19 Tailwind Senior citizens living at nursing facilities suffered greatly from COVID-19. There were instances where a big part of a nursing home’s population got infected by COVID-19. Second, many senior citizens got locked down at nursing facilities and were not able to see family members for very extended periods of time for safety reasons. Needless to say, that was a real hardship. Thus, I expect that both senior citizens and their families (e.g., children) would be trying to avoid or at least delay moving to a nursing facility as long as possible which would provide strong tailwinds for home care industry and Nova Leap. M&A Strategy 1. M&A Criteria Nova Leap has the following acquisition criteria: 1) U.S. and Canada geographic focus 2) Positive EBITDA with strong reputation/brand 3) Normally 5+ year history 4) Opportunities for operational synergies 5) $1M-$15M of Revenues Nova Leap is going after targets that are too small for private equity players and as a result faces limited competition. The space is very fragmented, and Nova Leap has many potential acquisition targets in front of it. M&A Playbook and Integration Nova Leap buys home care businesses that are primarily private pay. After that Nova Leap makes incremental changes at the acquired operations. First, Nova Leap implements price increases where it is appropriate. Second, Nova Leap reducea overtime because overtime destroys gross profit margin. Third, Nova Leap consolidates the back-office functions such as accounting. For example, instead of an accountant looking after one agency, such account working at Nova Leap HQ would be looking after 3 or 4 home care agencies. Fourth, better scheduling using scheduling software. Operating Philosophy CEO Chris Dobbin runs Nova Leap in a very decentralized fashion. Most locations’ leaders have lots of autonomy. HQ are responsible for setting up standards and back office / accounting. Chris Dobbin spends his time heavily on M&A and overseeing the agencies’ leaders. Unit Economics The key operating drivers are the number of client service hours and revenue per hour. Revenue per hour has been quite stable and is ~$25. Cost per hour has also been stable: ~$16.50 - $17.00. Thus, the profit per hour is ~$8.50 to $9. Four-Wall Economics and Four-Wall EBITDA “Four-wall EBITDA” is of course a misnomer because there are no tangible walls to speak of, but the concept still applies. I want to analyze profitability of field operations first and then overlay HQ expenses on top of that. The key issue that Nova Leap is facing today is its small size of field operations vs. HQ. However, with a few more acquisitions and de minimis growth in HQ expenses (see more on this below), the operating leverage would kick in and lead to a disproportionate increase in EBITDA. In 2019 segment EBITDA margin (e.g., before HQ costs) was 11.88%. However, in 1Q 2020 and 2Q 2020 it was 10.91% and 10.39% respectively due to the COVID-19 impact. Revenue run-rate (ex-COVID-19) is ~$5M per quarter or ~$20M per year. With ~12% segment EBITDA margin, NLH should be able to generate ~~$2.4M of segment EBITDA. With the EV of ~$19M, the EV/Segment EBITDA is ~7.85x. HQ Operations The HQ team based in Halifax is small and includes CEO, CFO, controller, and business development person. This is purely corporate function. The HQ also has 5 accountants. However, they work with field agencies. Nova Leap wants to do 4 to 6 M&A transactions a year (there was zero during COVID-19 pandemic so 2020 number would probably be lower than this target). Doing these M&A transactions will not require hiring any more HQ personnel. However, Nova Leap would probably need to hire an accountant for every 3-4 acquisitions (maybe 5). HQ expenses are ~$280K - $300K per quarter when there are no M&A transactions. Let’s call it $1.2M per year. Scaling What the numbers above is mean is that Nova Leap needs to get another $1M of EBITDA to show the strength of its operating model. That would probably require $5M of capital. I expect that it will be done with a very small dilution to existing shareholders. Valuation and Upside Potential As I alluded above, current headline multiple of EBITDA is not particularly attractive. However, with getting more scale and proving the model, I would not be surprised if Nova Leap trades at 12x – 14x EBIDA in 1 year could generate a 100% upside Risks M&A Integration M&A integration risks are inherent for any roll up / consolidation strategy and NLH is not exception. 2. Leverage NLH has ~$2.0M of debt which is a lot given its EBITDA today. If NLH does not grow its EBITDA, its leverage can become an issue. Catalysts 1. Continuous M&A 2. Operating leverage showing up as the company continues to scale its operations.
TSXV:NLHLong
by JabroniCapital
1
Big Pharma comparative analysis ---> a great time for them now ?Timestamp (black vertical line) : Mar 1 2020 ---> Lockdowns worldwide due to Covid-19 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - GlaxoSmithKline plc ( GSK ) LSE:GSK GlaxoSmithKline plc ( GSK ) is a British multinational pharmaceutical company headquartered in Brentford, England. Price decrease of 9.50% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Sorrento Therapeutics Inc. NASDAQ:SRNE Sorrento Therapeutics , Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company. It is based San Diego (Calif.), USA Price increase of 230% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - As an ever greater number of companies seek to provide vaccines and enter the lucrative race of who will provide what and who will be awarded plush government contracts, we can see that not all Big Pharma stocks are shining, pricewise. Time will tell but if hindsight can teach us something, it is that whoever invested in this rather obscure and not well known company called 'Sorrento Therapeutics", the investment would have been more rewarding than a comparable investment into GlaxoSmithKline plc . Words of wisdom: if you have extra cash lying around, do a careful and thorough analysis first. That is true, at all time, and even more so now, in this Covid-branded and forever altered world. Francois Normandeau Institutional Research Director for ADX-BRIEFING P.S. Live Stream on TradingView on Friday, January 1, 2021, at 6 am NY time, open to all. See you there.
S
by Pine_Academy
Big Pharma comparative analysis ---> a great time for them now ?Timestamp (black vertical line) : Mar 1 2020 ---> Lockdowns worldwide due to Covid-19 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - GlaxoSmithKline plc (GSK) LSE:GSK GlaxoSmithKline plc (GSK) is a British multinational pharmaceutical company headquartered in Brentford, England. Price decrease of 9.50% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Sorrento Therapeutics Inc. NASDAQ:SRNE Sorrento Therapeutics, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company. It is based San Diego (Calif.), USA Price increase of 230% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - As an ever greater number of companies seek to provide vaccines and enter the lucrative race of who will provide what and who will be awarded plush government contracts, we can see that not all Big Pharma stocks are shining, pricewise. Time will tell but if hindsight can teach us something, it is that whoever invested in this rather obscure and not well known company called 'Sorrento Therapeutics", the investment would have been more rewarding than a comparable investment into GlaxoSmithKline plc. Words of wisdom: if you have extra cash lying around, do a careful and thorough analysis first. That is true, at all time, and even more so now, in this Covid-branded and forever altered world. Francois Normandeau Institutional Research Director for ADX-BRIEFING P.S. Live Stream on TradingView on Friday, January 1, 2021, at 6 am NY time, open to all. See you there.
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by Pine_Academy
SPY Weekly Higher Low Set?Ticker: $SPY SPY dropped down to lower lows WITHOUT any follow through. This gives bulls the chance to get some sort of bounce going to start next week. Like always, volume will be key if this is indeed a bounce or "significant" bounce. Bulls have to break 331.20 resistance to start the week in order for us to say our weekly lower high (319.80) is set. The $NDX or $QQQ, basically tech sector) is relatively stronger than SPY so I will keep an eye on that if it breaks first. If it breaks first, that can be an early indication for bull momentum and I may enter a bull position for a scalp. Remember, don't be bias, just go off of technical because the fundamentals will drive you crazy in addition to your emotions.
AMEX:SPY
by DerekTradeEZ
1