Time For The Long Await Selloff?IF Intermediate wave 2 finally ended, this will serve as the current preliminary analysis for tracking Intermediate wave 3 down. Confirmation of Intermediate wave 2 ending will take at least 3 more days, so this analysis is subject to change. Based on the most specific historical models that are relationally relevant to an Intermediate wave 3, the quartile movement extensions serving as checkpoints and likely bottom (pink levels on chart) for Intermediate wave 3 are 165.83%, 181.41%, and 227.27%. The models cannot agree on a specific duration in hours, however, there are pockets of agreement with the strongest at 168-175 hours, secondary is 185-192, third is 149-156 hours. The next set of data is slightly broader and places the quartile movement extensions (light blue levels) at 147.09%, 165.83%, and 306.68%. Strongest model agreement for duration is at 70 hours (which was the length of Intermediate wave 2), secondary is 112 (length of Intermediate wave 1) and 426 hours while third model agreement is at 155, 174, and 199 hours. The broader set of historical data has extension quartiles (yellow levels) at 141.46%, 176.435%, and the third quartile remains at 306.68%. Strongest model agreement for duration is 70 and 426 hours (which are unlikely for wave 3) with secondaries at 112, 142, and 224 (double length of wave 1). Third most agreement is at 168, 174, and 213 hours.
Preliminary forecast is the bottom around 174 hours which is around October 6th. The bottom could be between 4114-4156, but likely below 4140. The levels in this assessment will not change but the forecasts for the bottom will be updated in future forecasts as each of the 5 waves near completion. Intermediate wave 4 should begin more upward movement after Intermediate wave 3 has completed. September looks like a selloff, but October should claw back 20-50% of the losses.
Big_bear_roar
Early highs today, begin September selloff tooBased on today’s open, Minute wave 4 likely lasted one hour near the end of trading yesterday. This sets the table for an earlier high in the markets today before everything should go south for the remainder of the week. Using the most specific datasets for determining Minute wave 5’s duration points to it only lasting 2 hours with secondary at 3 hours. Fourth duration is 6 hours and fifth is tied at 4, 7, or 9 hours. The minimum move for this dataset is 101.86% extension of wave 3 (already surpassed at open). Quartiles are 116.85%, 121.90%, and 128.83% with maximum historical move at 198.67% (and likely well out of reach today). The next projections based on slightly broader data has the extension quartiles at 112.59% (4535.06), 136.765% (4560.80), and 147.05%. The duration models agree most at 2 hours, secondary at 3 hours, fourth at 1 hour, and fifth at 6 hours. The broadest dataset has the extension quartiles at 110.87%, 128.83%, 156.22%. Strongest model duration is at 1 hour, second is 2 hours, third is 3 hours, fourth is 5 hours, fifth is 6 hours, sixth is 5 hours.
Looks like Minute wave 5 began at the 4505.88 low with about 1.5 hours left to trade on August 30th. It preceded to complete Minuette wave 1 up with a top at 4519.24 and then Minuette wave 2 down at 4510.89. The index open today in Minuette wave 3 which should be followed by a wave 4 down and final final wave 5 up. With this analysis written within the first 30 minutes of trading on August 31st, Minute wave 5 is currently in its third hour and possibly ending Minuette wave 3. The market top is fixing to end prior to 1230 eastern time today around 4535-4544. Markets should be deep in the red after today which is setting up for a heavy selloff in September.