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COF - Capital One Drop and Pop LONGCOF is shown on 1 15 minute chart. The trade idea is to play the drop in a bank stock as a reaction to the sticky inflation report and the idea that a rate cut already baked into stock price is about to come off the table. This is a risky reversal trade. However, with risk comes reward. The idea is on the chart. I will take a long trade here anticipating a return of 2% and about seven times risk. A call option for an expiration of 4/19 will also be in the position, striking 141. See also
NYSE:COFLong
by AwesomeAvani
JPM Earnings Next Week: Will Buybacks Hold Up the Stock?NYSE:JPM reached New Highs recently with a huge number of buybacks driving the stock upward so fast and so high. The big bank has also been busy gobbling up regional banks for two years now. JPM's floor traders, trading aggressively in a few key industries, are doing well. However, Revenues and Earnings were down last quarter over the prior quarter. And Volume is trending slightly lower over the quarter. An overextended run into earnings often sees profit-taking ahead of or on the day of the report. Smaller funds are in speculative mode chasing the buybacks. Why did smaller funds rush to buy on earnings last quarter? Year over Year comparisons show revenues and earnings are up. Year over year often distorts current values. What matters is the most current data, quarter over quarter, for the Buy Side Institutions.
NYSE:JPM
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
BAC setting up to thrive from rate - cuts LONGBAC is showed here on a 100R(ange) where price action from the Covid lows to the federal stimulus highs to the fade and consolidation of Summer 2022 to Summer 2023 and another fade and reversal from it are seen on the chart. At presen, BAC has reversed upside. With Uncles Powell and Sam announcing likely three rate cuts in 24Q3 and 24Q4, I see banks including BAC getting a break with more loan originations and less pressure for high payouts on savings accounts which may be the capital sources of those loans. I see this a an opportunity here and now to take long positions before those hypothetical cuts get baked into the price. The same may go for WFC, JPM, GS and others. My first target is 44 at the " neckline" of the 3,4Q21 triple top.
NYSE:BACLong
by AwesomeAvani
JPM a financial rockstar in stampede mode LONGJPM on the daily chart has plain and obvious consistent momentum albeit with corrections. The markets are expected to thrive in this lection year and three rate cuts are projected in the net 8 months. The best time to buy JPM was both March 22 and October 23. I suggest the next best time is now before the forecasted rate cuts are factored into price ahead of the cuts. I just got notified of unusual options volumes for a price of 220 for the July 24 expiration which is not a surprise and is the month of the presidential nominating conventions. That is 10% above current price and suggests the options buyers are expecting price to be in that money by July meaning maybe a target for price is 225-250. No matter, I am getting mine now before the prices rise.
NYSE:JPMLong
by AwesomeAvani
BMRI: Hidden Bullish Divergence, New All-Time High Soon?Hello Fellow Stock Traders, Here's a Technical Analysis of BMRI! After successfully overcoming a significant resistance area, BMRI (Bank Mandiri) experienced a subsequent pullback, thereby establishing a new support level. Analyzing the trend perspective, it is observed that BMRI's price movement surged above the EMA 34 Line, which is a promising indicator of a bullish trend. Additionally, the stock has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, accompanied by an impulsive breakout represented by a bullish candlestick formation. Such patterns typically imply potential upward momentum and are considered positive signs for further price appreciation. Furthermore, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator has displayed a hidden bullish divergence, indicating the possibility of the ongoing bullish trend extending further. In summary, the technical analysis of BMRI reveals multiple favorable factors, including the breach of a substantial resistance area, a bullish trend indicated by the EMA 34 Line, a symmetrical triangle pattern breakout, and the hidden bullish divergence on the MACD. Traders and investors may interpret these signals as potential indications of an upward continuation in BMRI's price movements. As always, prudent risk management practices should be employed before making any investment decisions. It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/support area is reached. Please support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below! Disclaimer: Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered as a recommendation to take a long or short position on IDX:BMRI .
IDX:BMRILong
by financialfreedomgoals101
NASDAQ BANK INDEX ready to reverse ? LONGBANK is tracking bank stocks within the NASDAQ. I cannot find if it is market cap weighted or instead an unweighted composite I wanted to check this out to see if the banking sector might reverse and perhaps have some trade candidates based on relative strength or even rising trading volumes. On the 15 chart, BANK's price is in a descending channel or wedge. It is too early to tell if it is breaking out although it is sandwiched between the SMA10 and SMA20 as so in limbo at least of this time frame. The MACD indicator shows downgoing lines that had crossed one another above the histogram. This appears to be a bearish divergence. The mass index shows no signs of a rise into the threshold and trigger zone as it did on January 31st. Overall, I conclude that the price is still in the channel and not yet an early breakout. I will recheck this at intervals. Once a breakout is confirmed and even retested, I will find some relatively strong bank stocks from which to pick a long trade at a low pivot for a safe high return from the upside shown.
NASDAQ:BANKLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
BBRI: Rising Net Profit, Potential for a Bullish Run Ahead?Hi Realistic Traders. Here's my price action analysis on BBRI! BBRI has once again surged above its bullish trendline, maintaining its bullish trend. Additionally, the stock has shaped a bullish divergence and a descending broadening wedge pattern. These combined patterns often signal a strong likelihood of continued bullish momentum. Most notably, it has recently broken through the upper trendline, suggesting a compelling opportunity for further upside movement toward the target area. Fundamental Driver: In September 2023, BBRI reported a consolidated net profit of Rp44.21 trillion in the third quarter of 2023, marking a 12.47% increase from the same period in the previous year when it was Rp38.31 trillion. This positive development supports the projected outlook." it is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/supprot area is reached. Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on IDX:BBRI ." Please support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below!
IDX:BBRILong
by financialfreedomgoals101
BNKU- Triple Leveraged Bank Sector LONGOn the hourly chart, BNKU fell from a head and shoulders in late July , crossed under VWAP lines in a VWAP breakdown and pullback before an inverse head and shoulders type reversal now underway. The zero-lag MACD is confirmatory. I will take a long trade here. Projected stop loss and targets ( TP1-40% TP2 40% and T3 20%) are on the chart. I see this as a very safe trade with an estimated 12% overall profit expected. I am in a WFC trade and looking at ETFs DPST and KRE as well
BLong
by AwesomeAvani
Is it time to short the big banks with BNKD again?As shown on the 4H chart BNKD, a triple leveraged ETF inverse to big bank stocks has had ups and downs reflecting the chaos in the banking system with some failures and federal support or takeovers. Online banks are thriving while some smaller regional banks are challenged with a portfolio of bonds and treasuries bearing low yields. Price is presently at the same level as the high of December 22 and low of April 23. This level is acting as support also allowing for a narrow stop loss for a long trade. Price is below the high volume area of the long term volume profile which equates to the fair value area. Accordingly, BNKD is oversold and discounted below fair value into the undervalued range. It is below the mean anchored VWAP line and in the area of one standard deviation below that line. The zero-lag MACD shows an early impending cross of the lines under the histogram another suggestion of a reversal I will take a long trade with the stop loss directly below the horizontal support line by $ 0.25 while the first target just below the confluence of the POC line and the mean VWAP @ $.13.90 while the final target is $ 15.60 near the top of the high volume area. I see this as a safe long trade with a high R:R and profit potential.
BLong
by AwesomeAvani
BAC rising from support LONGBAC on the daily recently descended from an asymmetrical head and shoulders pattern near to or in the supply zone as indicated by the Luxalgo indicator down into the demand zone in late March and early May for a double bottom. Fundamentally, the banking system has been propped up by the federal central banking mechanisms and the situation seems to have stabilized. DPST and KRE banking ETFs have had some good days of late. On the chart the Luxalgo Echo indicator, a predictive algorithmic tool, suggests that BAC will rise during this summer and then bounced down from the resistance of the trendline of the neck of the asymmetrical H & S. I can easily conclude that BAC is ripe for a long trade. I will take an out of the money call option for DTE 9/20 striking #37.00. I will set the stop loss at 20% - Of the 15 contracts, I will close 2 after each 20% profit level is achieved and expect to make overall 150-250% by mid-August. Because of time decay, I will not carry these open beyond September 1st.
NYSE:BACLong
by AwesomeAvani
When Fear Reigns Banking Majors GainIn times of crisis, investors rush to safety. When risk shows in places of safety, bank runs begin. One's pain is someone else's gain. Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) & Signature Banks' combined assets at $300 billion is witnessing a flight to safety. At $300 billion, it is trivial relative to $23 trillion within the American banking system. Remember that the FDIC only insures deposits up to USD 250k. Both institutional and individual clients holding large deposits in regional banks are rushing to move their funds from regional to major banks. Between 2020 and 2022, regional bank index outperformed the broader bank index. Regional banks business was designed to be lean - collect deposits and extend loans to home buyers and local businesses. This was meant to be less risky relative to banking majors whose businesses were sophisticated and inherently risky. Hence the banking relief law passed in 2018, made regulations less onerous to banks with domestic assets of less than $250 billion. As a result, by end of 2022, US had 2,100 banks with $19.8 trillion in assets. Only ten out of these 2,100 banks had domestic assets more than $250 billion. Lax regulations led some regional banks astray with concentrated bets on customer segments and risk management of asset and liability maturity risk. With rates rising, tides receding, banks that were swimming naked became obvious. Chart below contrasts the impact of unrealised losses on select US bank's tier 1 capital ratio. It is little surprise that SVB imploded with such an adverse capital situation when unrealised losses were accounted for. Now as crisis of confidence in banking spreads across both sides of the Atlantic, depositors are rushing to move their money to larger safer bank and money markets. FT reported on March 15th that large US banks are getting flooded with fund transfer requests from regional banks. SVB has triggered a tectonic shift in depos­its unseen in more than a decade. Veteran hands know well that anxiety created by small shocks make larger crises less likely. JPM, Citigroup are among the beneficiaries of regional bank pains. To aid cus­tom­ers to move depos­its swiftly, these banks are tak­ing extra steps to speed up client onboard­ing. It is reported that these banks are reassigning employees to account opening linked jobs to handle workload and to hasten the process. HNI’s Shifting to Large Banks Despite the liquidity backstop promise extended by US Fed and US Treasury, depos­it­ors are moving funds into lar­ger banks such as JPM, Citi and Bank of America. This phenomenon is more so for accounts holding >$250k (the limit up to which is guaranteed by FDIC). The 25 biggest US banks gained $120B in deposits in the days following the collapse of SVB and Signature while smaller banks saw a net outflow of $108B during that period. This has been the largest weekly decline in deposits at small banks and poses the risk of inciting more financial instability. Citi’s private bank servicing wealthy individuals is opening accounts within a day com­pared to usual timeline of one to two weeks. Citi is reported to open accounts & initiate fund transfers even as new clients are under compliance checks. Larger banks are subject to significantly tougher regulatory scrutiny as a result they become attractive destinations for shell-shocked depositors. Portfolio diversification is not new. Long shadow cast by the debacle of three sizeable banks within a space of a week has exposed the fragility in the system. This has prompted depositors to diversify not only their portfolios but also their banks. Moreover, comparing the actual assets held by large banks to mid-sized banks: SVB and Silvergate, both of which collapsed had their assets largely held in bonds held to maturity or available for sale. For SVB, the maturity date was in the far future, posing liquidity concerns when a bank run ensued. By contrast, Silvergate largely had bonds available for sale but selling them all at once would have caused huge realized losses. Another interesting takeaway is the way in which each regional mid-sized bank adopts a different portfolio tailored for their specific clientele and their needs. Although, this allows them to fine-tune their operations and holdings, it comes with the downside of financial instability during periods of aggressive rate hikes and economic uncertainty. By contrast, Citigroup, JP Morgan, BoA, and PNC have portfolios that are well diversified with a healthy mix of cash & interbank loans, loans, bonds to maturity, and bonds available for sale. Crucially, their significant cash holdings allow them to weather the storm far better and eases any liquidity concerns for depositors. Capital Flow Towards Asset Managers Large asset managers are also witnessing an influx of funds. Seemingly the money is moving away from regional banks and into majors and asset managers offering access to money market funds. Money market funds which hold US Government Debt are considered the safest destination for large amounts of fund given the overwhelming uncertainty in the banking sector. They also have the added advantage of offering investors seniority in case of bankruptcy proceedings. Certain MMF’s are currently offering yields as high as 5.02% compared to a paltry 0.23% average for bank deposits, making the shift towards MMF’s a no-brainer for many. More than $300B has flown into money market funds in March taking the overall assets in money market funds to a record $5.1T. This also represents the largest month of inflows for asset managers since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Goldman, Fidelity, and JPM are the biggest beneficiaries from these inflows. Goldman’s US money market funds have increased by $52B or 13% since the beginning of the banking crisis on March 9th. JPM’s funds received $46B while Fidelity saw $37B of inflows according to data from iMoneyNet. Capital Flow into Gold Gold is one of the most prominent safe haven assets that investors look to in times of economic uncertainty and instability. This capital flow was seen during the 2008 financial crisis when bank deposits plummeted and Gold price skyrocketed. The same can now be seen on an even larger scale. Commercial bank deposits have plummeted well below even 2008 levels while the price of gold is teetering around $2,000/ounce, the highest price ever. Although, some gold investors choose to buy physical gold or jewellery, larger investors often opt for other instruments that are more cost effective such as ETF’s or Futures. This too offers the larger banks a huge opportunity to benefit from the inflow of capital into gold-linked products through their investment banking divisions. GLD, or SPDR gold trust is the largest Gold ETF. It saw a net inflow of $915M in March. The same can be seen in CME’s GC futures which saw managed money traders increase their net long positions by 5x or 83k contracts ~$16B. Trade Setup This case study illustrates potential gains to be harvested from spread trades as funds move from regional banks to majors. With rates remaining elevated the majors enjoy a comfortable Net Interest Margin. Rising deposit base by cherry picking high credit quality customers will enable banking majors to vastly outperform the regional banks. Therefore, this case study sets for three spread trades - (a) Long JPM and Short KBWR (1:3) (b) Long COF and Short KBWR (1:2) (c) Long C and Short KBWR (1:1) A spread trade requires that the notional values of each leg of the trade to be identical. Accordingly, the ratios above have been provided based on the closing prices as of April 3rd. Table below sets out entry, target, stop and reward-to-risk ratio for each of these trades. Long JP Morgan & Short KBWR ● Entry: 2.82 ● Target: 3.17 ● Stop: 2.62 ● Profit at Target: $16 ● Loss at Stop: $9.5 ● Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.7x Long Capital One Financial & Short KBWR ● Entry: 2.08 ● Target: 2.54 ● Stop: 1.9 ● Profit at Target: $21 ● Loss at Stop: $8.5 ● Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 2.5x Long Citibank & Short KBWR ● Entry: 1.01 ● Target: 1.19 ● Stop: 0.937 ● Profit at Target: $8 ● Loss at Stop: $3.5 ● Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 2.2x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com cme /. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NASDAQ:KBWBLong
by mintdotfinance
2
SLV the most short squeezed thing in the market.Silver has been shorted by everyone and currently, they don't have any actual physical shares of silver. Yet they have all these naked paper contracts that will never be backed up. The actual physical silver asset doesn't exist. The big banks will need to buy back their shorts if we push the price higher than 40. That being said this can be done if we all collectively tackle the big banks. With our winnings from GME and more support, we can get the silver value to where it belongs @100 dollars minimum. A quick look there is strong resistance at 30 dollars mark but understand that silver has actually broken out of the 25 resistance with the current push and momentum silver will have a great month at the very least.
AMEX:SLVLong
by mdaFaisal
1
USDCAD - Potential Trend Change - Mutliple Timeframe AnalysisHi Traders! The market is in an overall Downtrend since a very long time. We are going to walk trough these Timeframes: W1 - D1 - H4 - H1 We're going to explain only things which aren't obvoius on the first look. Let's begin with the weekly Timeframe: As you can see the market keeps falling since many months. But that has nothing to say. The interesting part is, that it seems to went in one or two straight lines - which means that the price didn't pull back much. This means that the price can easily rise. Why? Here is an explanation: Moving on to the daily TF: If you consider the last two candles, you'll probably recognize the Morning Star pattern. This is a bullish reversal pattern. Let's continue with the H4-TF: You'll surely heard about that the "Big Boys" or the "Big Dogs" moving the markets. These are all names for the Big Banks who are actually trading. Let's consider the price action a bit: We want to find out whether the BBs are buying or selling. As you can see we have much noise on the sellers side, but on the other side clear Up-Movements. So, we expect that the BBs are interested in buying - due to this low price. We are also looking for a Long Trade. One way is to wait for a pullback and buy at the 50 EMA and Support. Lastly, here is the H1-TF: Here we listed some possible Entry scenarios. If you have any more, let us know in the comments! We recommend to trade with a conservative target, because the market is still in a downtrend. Thanks and successful Trading :)!
Long
by swissmoneymakers
AUDUSD still at the BUY Zone and going into Magic Box (95% acc)AUDUSD still at the BUY Zone and heading into the Magic Box Target area, around (90-95%) accuracy. Big guys still in our back and kicking some traders who put BUY position with stop loss. Before it goes into their way, they will eliminate first some traders who have SL. Solution to this is via hedging Initial Target= 80pip+ 1st Target Sample Big Guys: 1. UBS 2. JP Morgan 3. CITI Bank 4. HSBC Who are these banks? They are just the big mover in FOREX, with lot of capital on their hand with no SL :-). Their AIM is to get retails traders out of the market although they know that their position are correct direction. It is just they dont have enough fund to accommodate these movers.
Long
by cfa
1