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Biggerpicture

EUR/USD Short-term & Longterm IdeasWhats up TV community. just want to share with you guys my view on EURUSD. From yearly Topdown to Daily. We touched the Yearly Demand level & the 3Month Chart has a strong bullish candle which engulfed the previous bearish candle. (some bull signals) on Monthly timeframe we eliminated the last Supply CP and we created nice demand level with imbalance, which indicates more bulls kicking in. Now we jump to Daily timeframe and use our fresh demand levels to jump into the rally . Never forget one major thing. Follow your trading plan. i am just sharing ideas. If something big happens with fundamentals technicals can change never forget that. Enjoy your trading.
by IKA-academy
2
USDJPY ELLIOT PRICE ACTION BREAKDOWNFrom my own perspective, it portrays to me like we're in a correction phase. I mean, a general rectangular correction wave looking at the bigger picture on a monthly timeframe. Currently, we are in primary wave of wave C in micro wave of wave 4 and wave 3 got completed making a 78.6% retracement from the all time high. Moreover, wave 4 just go started which contains 3 waves i.e. ABC wave correction after making or attaining a 50.0% fibs level, expect price to push up to the overall time high. Then, from there we can look for selling opportunities to the down side. lets watch and see how the market plays out. TIPS: WAVE A = 3 WAVES WAVE B = 3 WAVES WAVE C = 5 WAVES
by Ifeanyichukwuxx
2
BITCOIN - Don't Get Out of Touch With RealityHello everyone, rouzwelt here Just take a look at the screenshot of Bitcoin daily chart below, almost 17X in a year. What does it tell you? Have you ever asked the question that why it should have risen this much? What's the reason behind it? Has it added additional 17X worth of value in 1 year? What fundamentals have actually changed during this time to cause such an uprise? Well let me say that many people confuse Bitcoin with Blockchain (crypto tokens with blockchain technology), the point is that the real value, the real driver is not Bitcoin itself (tokens) but actually it is the Blockchain technology, that's where all the things are happening, that's where all the innovation are happening, tokens are just tokens, they don't add value by themselves, so in order for tokens' prices to rise higher you always need another person to pay a higher price than the last person, but there are not infinite amount of buyers of course and as price keeps rising higher their population decreases and also more possible buyers come short of the required capital to be able to buy at those prices. When the last guys buying at the top realize that price is not going to go higher for a certain period in time they start to sell and this initiates a chain reaction. Well in crypto there are a lot of HODLers who play a big roll in crypto massive pumps, but you need to pay attention that as the prices keep rising there will be less new HODLers, because it will be more difficult as they need to put away more of their total capital for lesser possible gains. All these things makes it harder to see higher prices in short period of time. And as you know Blockchain is still very young, we have not yet figured out how we will be using it in real world, the first impression was to replace it with fiat money, but that's not the case anymore, at least with Bitcoin, and about the ability to be store of value, well you can't expect a young asset like crypto to be able to deliver on that until it passes some real world test which happens over time, definitely more than a decade. So the whole speculation about the real world use of Blockchain is still not clear. We might be using it for a whole different purpose in 2050. You can see in the screenshot that since the breakout of 2018 ATH, we only managed to see a increase in volume at 20 to 30K uprise, and we just saw decrease in volume to new ATH, that shows that the price was actually driven mostly by retails, and retails have limited amount of power, but after price reached almost 65K, you can see huge volume and supply entering market. that is where whales came to play, swallowing every little man on their way, and I don't think they're done yet. Believing that price can't fall lower from here is just a fantasy, as I don't believe the current price is anywhere near being balanced from mining and leverage perspective, but I don't want to dive deep on those issues here. (you can read my previous posts if you're interested in my take on those issues here: ) Another thing to mention is the zero to negative premium on futures market compared to spot market, which is an indication of lack of real interest from traders and speculators. When there is bull market there is always positive premium. Anyway that was for a general look at the market, but now let's take a look at 1H chart (main chart). I've been talking about my possible short trade setup idea in my last posts which was about a possible entry after the breakdown of the yellow uprising channel and the blue down trend line. I've been pointing the lack of demand and volume at these short impulses up, and with time passing I was getting more confident that price will soon break the channel. Well it has happened now and I've opened my short position at 32850 (you can find my trade setup idea here where I talk about it in detail: ). You can clearly see the volume increasing as soon as the channel broke, again that's a sign of more supply entering. I should say that I hate to sound bearish, I hate the bear market, it's more difficult to trade but you always need to be balanced, and you need to know about bear markets so you can position yourself to be able to enjoy the next bullish market. So right now I believe that there is a good chance to break the 30k support level this time, because price was getting weaker every time it bounced from there, as it couldn't even reach to its last printed high. I believe that interests in current price levels have been decreasing slowly since we entered this 30/40k range, and as long as that is the case then testing lower levels to find more interests again is a great possibility. So be prepared and use the best tool you have to deal with it, which is risk and money management. If you enjoyed reading this post then consider supporting me by hitting like and please write a comment if you have any opinion about it, and as always have fun and trade safe.
Short
by rouzwelt
4
BITCOIN - Mid-term OverviewHello everyone, rouzwelt here I want to start by taking a look at Bitcoin weekly chart, as you can see in the screenshot below, I have used 21 and 34 weekly EMA to indicate the possible dynamic support/resistance levels. I generally don't use Moving Averages for my analysis, cause I find them too laggy, but in this case It's not bad to take a look at them as we are in weekly timeframe. These 2 EMAs are actually widely used by traders to identify trend reversals and shift in momentum. Generally speaking, failure to maintain above these 2 EMAs is an indication of the bear market and vice versa. You can clearly see that in chart, whenever the price was below these EMAs we where in bear market and they acted as strong resistances. In the whole recent bull run price was above these 2 EMAs and whenever the price has fallen, they acted as support and we saw a bounce from them, but since we break below them for the first time since the beginning of the bull run, they are now starting to act as resistances as we have rejected once from them since then. I believe that if we start to see an uprise right now in the chart, the possible reversal point might be around these 2 EMAs as they will act as strong resistances, sure there can be a break above them, but we need to see that to be sustainable and don't get rejected after a few weeks, so we can confirm that they are now our dynamic supports. But now let's take a look at daily timeframe, another thing I'd like to mention here is the macro down trend line (green line) in the chart, formed from connecting our last 2 highs in daily chart. I believe that this trend line is the critical line for Bitcoin to be able break above, if we want to see higher levels again and see a new bull run or continuing of the existing one ( if BTC manage to do it before the end of the year). And as it is crystal clear, the longer Bitcoin stays below this trend line the probability of seeing lower levels increases. I'd like to point something out here, if we see a horizontal price action towards the trend line from now on, it almost takes 2 more months in 30/40k range, which I believe is the least expected move from Bitcoin at this moment, but it could be very bullish signal for me and for BTC, as our main support level of 30k becomes so strong that we will not see it breaks about 4 months. Such scenario looks very bullish to me and puts BTC in strong position again. So I just wanted to mention these 2 ( the EMA and Trend Line) so that you keep an eye on them as potential critical zones for Bitcoin in mid-term, as they can be clear indications for momentum shift in the market, technically. I hope this post is informative and as always have fun and trade safe.
by rouzwelt
2
BITCOIN THE KING -The Bigger PictureHello everyone, rouzwelt here This post may be a little more longer than my usual posts, so bear that in mind as I'm going to take a look at macro picture and fundamentals of Bitcoin and Crypto Market. Let's begin by going back to the beginning of the global pandemic, maybe one of few phenomenons that had the ability to change the world structure in every dimensions and when it started to impact the financial space and global economy, many were speculating about a long recession as a lot of 1st world countries like USA (I'm mostly focused on U.S. as it has the biggest economy and U.S. Dollar is the global reserved currency) were already in deep prolonged financial struggles, after all that could have been a fairly good chance to fix some structural issues, but you may know even better than me, they came up with the solution which it is the reason behind creating those problems in the first place. QE plans and money printing have gone wild since then, and all those crashes in stock, crypto and other financial sectors resulted by economy shutdowns where quickly recovered, but at what cost? The whole thing just grew the existing bubble even bigger and it's just a matter of time before it pops, but that's necessary if you'd like to see a healthy economy again. Handing out all those stimulus money to people who don't even need them as well as all that free time caused by shutdowns drove many to markets like crypto as they had all these free money and time to spend on such speculative assets. You should factor Bitcoin halving too, happening on that period in time and as we know, it is a catalyst for Bitcoin to take off and when Bitcoin takes off the whole crypto market follows. We had bullish news day after day as Bitcoin was breaking its ATH again and again, many were FOMOing in and talking about 100/200K+ BTC by the end of the 2021. Well we can say that's not the case for many of those 100K+ guys anymore, as we started to see lack of buyers and demand in 60k area. We all need some dose of reality every now and then as nothing can rise in straight line up in short period of time. Many talk about the institutions that are in BTC and believe that because they are in, price can't dump lower than certain levels. Well you need to ask yourself how many institutions are in? how many of S&P500 institutions are in? They're not a lot of them and retail doesn't have enough power to pump an asset beyond a certain level. In fact we saw big bullish news coming everyday when BTC was at top but the whole price action was sideways and we didn't see much happening. And that shows us that demand was fading away. You can't expect Bitcoin and crypto to just go up from now on cause they are printing dollar like crazy, as the market size is not comparable, there still is huge interest in U.S dollar. I want to point out something here, many new comers think that we all are going to be rich entering crypto, but that's not how it works, actually trading is more of a zero-sum game, whales institutions and smart traders need these new people in order to lock in their profits, they need them to buy the top so they can sell, and in crypto theoretically you always need a buyer willing to pay you a higher price than you have paid as crypto doesn't have any intrinsic value by itself, and price can dump massively if HODLers stop HODLing. From mining perspective I should note that, the gains in these months were crazy, I am a miner myself and I find it crazy how much a shitty ASIC miner could have mined during that period, these miners became profitable after this bullish run which is ridiculous. Look at GPU market, prices are insane, and this is causing an unbalanced situation in mining manufacturing industry, the mining devices are way over-priced and that can't be sustainable, eventually they should come down as a result of Bitcoin price falling, or at least the amount of mining farms grow to an extent that the prices get balanced again, and the former is more achievable at this moment in time. Now let's take a look at the chart, below is weekly timeframe of BTC in log format, and as you can see price was moving inside the channel since the global pandemic started, right now price has broken below the channel, and if we get the weekly close below the channel then it would be confirmation that the channel is invalid, what can happens after that is difficult to say, we might consolidate for a long time in the current range of 30/40K and we might dump to lower levels. But I want to say that in my personal opinion higher levels seem the most unrealistic one among these probabilities. I'm not ruling it out completely out of the picture though, but even if BTC manages to head higher at this stage, I believe it can't hold that for very long and would be unsustainable, that's because we need new money, new buyers entering. Look at Micro Strategy for example, last week it came up with a news that they are planning to buy huge amount of Bitcoins, they managed to fill their order at almost 37k in average, but what happened after that? price actually dumped. This news would have pumped the price massively if it had came before May 2021, and try to think it this way, now they can be a catalyst for a bigger crash if BTC falls below a certain level (24K), if their shareholders begin to withdraw some their investments, cause they are in huge debt and they should sell some their BTC to pay them in cash. We see a lot of bullish news coming everyday, but yet we don't see that reflecting in the chart, and that's simple, there are just not enough buyers at this point, and that takes time to change, as there are cycles in the market, we can't go straight to the moon, get that out of your head for your own good. We may never see a blow off top in Bitcoin like 2017 as that's the main talking point of many pointing it out every time: "we have not had a blow off top so the bull run isn't over yet", well if that's the main talking point, you know how this works, if everyone expects it then it never happens, as well as a dead cat bounce. You should not expect anything to happen, that's not how it works. Lastly I want to point out an interesting action which is happening in the chart since the start of the bull run, for the first time since then, we are seeing the volume increase at rally down in weekly chart and decrease of volume at reaction, that's an early indication of momentum shift in the market. We can see more supply entering the market and I believe many of those lucky guys who bought BTC below 15K, are starting to book some profit now as they have missed the 50/60k range and don't want to miss this range too. Anyway it's hard to predict where the price might end up in mid-term, where ever it goes you better have a plan, but if you are here for the long run and you don't mind waiting 5 or more years then you'll be fine cause long-term I'm still bullish, although I know that in short to mid-term BTC can head to lower levels, but I also know that there is still a long road ahead for crypto market and there are a lot of buyers who would enter this market as it is growing and that's what the market needs, new money, new adaptions, new institutions, and that certainly takes time, so don't lose your belief in the value it adds to our lives. I hope this would be helpful and if you have found something useful in this post then feel free to support me by a like and share, and write a comment if you have anything to say, I'd appreciate that a lot. Have fun and trade safe.
by rouzwelt
8
XRP Don't Be Afraid, Just Another Buying Opportunity imo :)As BTC tanked, bringing the whole market with it i see nothing else but huge buying opportunity. Then again that is at least my thinking right now. It is like going shopping when you see a massive discounts. Never lose sight of a bigger picture (look 4H, 1D, 1W charts), its likely that dumping is already over, if not we could deep a bit into the orange area, but not past it as that would be a bit weird in an alt season when is demand is huge. I am not a financial advisor so nothing here is a financial advise. Be well. BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by AVA37
5
CRYPTOCURRENCY - TOTAL MARKETCAP - WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF ??I`ve been in this market for 5 years now, and ive seen this bullrun before ! So therefore we should ask ourselves - when will the trend reverse ? 1. The 31st of Aug 2017 the marketcap was approx 160 B, and at the start of Jan. 2018 it peaked at approx 760 B before the reverse kicked in. This gives an 475% increase from August 2017 - Jan. 2018. 2. If we use the same pattern and go from 31st of Aug. 2020 the cap was at 400 B, and now at the start of Feb. 2021 we just hit 1400 B. If we use the 475% bullincrease we should reach approx 1900 B before we see a bearish trend . That will let BTC go too aprox 60 000 and to ETH 2500. 3. There will always be differences between 2017 and 2021 - adoption by big coorporations and more Institutional money, new traders ( RH ), Reddit / Elon Musk and The Doge Hype. But at the end of the day people generally wants to take profit, and when enough people do - and we eventually go into a profitsqueeze the tide will turn yet again ! What do the people of tradingview think of this poor but real analysis ? - Comments are very much welcome ! - Sometimes we got to zoom out on the charts to see the bigger picture -
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by Van_Geld
3
EURO DOLLAR CHART TESTING KEY SUPPORT LEVELHi Traders, As we breakdown the Euro dollar chart, the price is still in an uptrend as per daily timeframe. Price is testing a key support level at the 4H chart, which is in confluence with the 23.6 retracement level as per the daily chart. if price manages to break this support, then it can easily test the daily trendline. If the price honors the support level then the break of the 4H chart trendline is most likely to happen. The break of the 4H trendline will mark the end of the corrective downwave and can expect price to rally again. A safer entry would b after the break of the support level to the downside with a target at the daily trendline or after the break of the 4H trendline to the upside. For queries pls comment below and dont forget to like and follow for more.... Happy Trading
by Hari_krishnan_S_Kumar
Bitcoin long-term still in the triangleEven after the Bitcoin halving, I have not seen people drawing out this long term triangle. So I thought I'd share this real quick. I drew this as a sketch a long time ago and it has been working out very well so far as you can see! Since I see Bitcoin bullish in the long run and we are moving closer and closer to the breakout of this triangle, I think we can see it shoot up after the break the triangle. Just wanted to share this for a bigger view on Bitcoin ----------------------------- Thank you for inspecting my idea I'm happy to receive any kind of feedback
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sandro_S
Bigger picture of where BTC is going (Part 2)Just wanted to add to my last view: as many of you know me already, only when we pass 10,500$ with confirmations from OBV and other indicators, only then I will turn to be mainly focused on full parabolic bull run on my trades. Meanwhile I keep accumulating BTCs on my long term portfolio investment (I guess I will stop around 14k), and I keep on focusing on shorting the market at important resistances, only after we break the first most important resistance at 10500 with a bullish trend to break the big-term bearish move, only then I will start to longing the market at important support levels (And not only bottoms like on the last Corona crush)... I love how the market works out so nicely with my expectations on most times. remember guys, always have a plan, always play by your own rules, and always learn what you can improve, avoid FOMO, avoid emotions, avoid chasing. Also don't forget, I'm a speculator trader, a probabilities trader, my way doesn't fit everyone out there... as I usually recommend you should always focus on finding the mid-term trend and stick to it, this will give you most wins and the best steady profits out there with less risks, try to avoid leveraging, always use SLs, and you should be fine. PS: If you wonder what are these numbers, these are the monthly candles which I calculate for each run (personal calculations), you will also see them on my previous update.
Long
by Hedgehog_king
Bigger picture of where BTC is goingRemember my first "Bigger picture of where BTC is goin" which I posted on TV? (I posted these even before I had TV) I decided to post yet another one today. This is my dose of for the price prediction and when I start being fully bullish on BTC on my trades (Also when I start to TP my long term investment portfolio): * Since BTC is maturing from halving to halving, it only means that it also slows down in the big movement, I think this is necessary if we ever want to see world adaption and BTC above 1m$, because then it will be part of the global economy, and won't be as volatile as it was until today. - The curve from first bottom price on the big trend line (Purple), and until peak price, is getting smaller (I find it with my own math) - Which also means that the % growth on the parabolic runs is getting also smaller, and the % correction as well. - It takes more monthly candles to transcend important highs (Also we create more highs as resistance) - And we create more and more rising trend lines to ignite the next parabolic run - The fib' target levels getting more and more realistic to the profits range levels (I think this parabolic run won't go above it like on last 2) - A big confirmation should be with the OBV going above ATH as well, this will show that smarter money is entering the market (Each phase we have smarted money, first we had the geeks, then we had the black market, then we had the average person, institutional money and fomo of the rich people should be next, and then gov''?) * My overall idea is to split it into 3 target areas: 1. TP1: 30k-50k$ - should be at-least 60% out of Crypto 2. TP2: 55k-70k$ - should be at-least 85% out of Crypto 3. TP3: 75k-120k$ - should be at-least 90-98% out of Crypto Lets see how my chart will follow in next few years <3
BNC:BLXLong
by Hedgehog_king