TRADE IDEA: MAT APRIL 18TH 15/15/17 BIG LIZARDMetrics:
Max Profit: $223/contract ($56 at 25% max)
Max Theoretical Loss/Buying Power Effect: $1277 (stock goes to 0); $1277 cash secured; ~$300 on margin.
Break Even: 12.77/share (7.6% discount over current price if assigned on the 15 short put); no upside risk
Delta: 43.26 (bullish assumption)
Theta: 1.09
Notes: I wasn't happy with what my screener was showing me for things to play this coming week, so figured I'd scrounge around for a few underlyings with high implied volatility that have earnings in the rear view mirror. One of these is MAT (50/58), which got taken to the wood shed last week.
Pictured here is a "Big Lizard" (Who comes up with these names?) that consists of a short straddle and a long call where the width of the short call vertical aspect (the short call + the long call) is less than the total credit received for the entire setup. Put another way, the risk associated with the short call vertical aspect ($200, since it's a 2-wide) is less than the total credit received ($223) so that if the underlying takes off like a poo rocket and breaks through the long call, you can still make money to the extent that the total credit exceeds the width of the spread (2.23 - 2.00 = .23). Ideally, however, you want price to remain between your break even of 12.77 and the short straddle at 15.00.
Obvious alternative plays:
The April 18th 13 short put, .62 credit, break even of 12.37 (a discount of 10.5% over current price), delta 33.95, theta .81.
The April 18th 15 short straddle, 2.56 credit, break evens of 12.44/17.56 (a discount of 10% over current price if assigned on the 15), delta 22.67, theta 1.8.
Biglizard
72% Probability trade on XLU (Big Lizard)The Utilities sector have been underperforming. With IV Rank of 67.5 and down around 10% since December we are getting at least some premium to sell. I don't want to risk a move upward, so I Sold a Big Lizard (Straddle at 51 and bought the 52 call) to eliminate the risk to the upside. This is a high probability trade above 70% and we make money as long as it stays above $49.82.
The Trade:
38 days to expiration on Feb 16
Sell 51 Put
Sell 51 Call
Buy 52 Call
Credit $1.18
Probability of profit 72%
78% probability trade on XLK (Big Lizard)With an Implied volatility rank at 49 I did a Straddle with no upside risk (Big Lizard) on XLK for $2.12 per contract. Our break even is at $51.88 price and with 50 days to expiration that gives us a 78% probability of profit.
The trade:
Sell 18 AUG 54 Call
Sell 18 AUG 54 PUT
Buy 18 AUG 56 Call
Over 70% trade on XOP (Big Lizard)Closed a trade last week and had no position in XOP. Today we had a -2% move down and around 9% in the last month IV rank is not great, but right now not many ETF's have over 20 Implided volatility rank.
So I decided to sell a straddle with no upside risk (Big Lizard).
The trade:
Sold the 33 Call
Sold the 33 Put
Bought the 35 Call
Total credit $2.16
No risk to the upside trade on OIH (Big Lizard)After a couple of down days in oil OIH have been affected. Now with an Implied Volatility rank of 27 it gives us a chance to sell some premium.
A big lizard (Straddle with no upside risk) is a nice probability trade to do in case it decides to bounce back up.
Trade price $1.24 per contract
The trade:
Sellthe Jul21 24.5 Call
Sell the Jul21 24.5 Put
Buy the Jul21 25.5 Call
Break even is 23.26
Probability of profit 70%