USDJPY / 4hDue to the upward trend in the Daily and Weekly timeframes, we expect the scalpel to descend from the blue area to the yellow areas. Then continue the uptrend.
Bigpicture
The bigger picture for cryptoWyckoff distribution, accumulation, and redistribution patterns have played out since MAY 10th 2021. SOL one of the first top cryptos to burst out of it's wyckoff pattern and set new alltime highs. I believe select cryptos will follow a similar parabolic pattern just like SOL.
ADA nearing completion of it's wyckoff.
MATIC preparing for it's parabolic run.
XRP preparting for it's parabolic run.
ETH and BTC will set new ATH as well if they play out similar to SOL.
Short-Term Short - After that could go either wayThere's a good chance rejection at trend point of control (PoC) is confirmed and we get some kind of retrace from this prevailing bullish impulse that we've had.
If so, we are likely to come back down to at least the first point of support at which point there are a couple possibilities:
a) make a higher low and begin proper large-scale accumulation
b) make a lower low and return to PoC
c) slowly bleed as supply absorbs all demand as well as eating demand orders from the books -> breaking below horizontal PoC in the major support zone and finally capitulating into an extended bear market / accumulation period
Minimum 6-12+ months before new ATHThe DI/LRSI is printing a power shift signal (orange background on indicator).
This occurs when either the ADX trend strength crosses over 25 or when it's already over 25 and the bulls/bears switch who's in control of the trend suddenly.
The latter signal is being printed on this week's candle.
With the weakening descending top and flat support, we can see the bulls have less power with each attempt they have made to return to previous ATH, but the bears have not been getting weaker (always returning to same support).
This is a classic signal of trend reversal when found at the top of a previously strong uptrend.
All together, this suggest there is only maybe a 5% chance at most that we see ATH again in 2021. Much more likely, it will take until late 2022 or later before we see a new ATH or massive double top.
List Of Bitcoin Bear Markets & Corrections vs TodayLet's zoom out and look at the whole journey of Bitcoin since 2011 on an Heikin Ashi chart. We might think corrections down to 93% is unreal, but look how possible it actually is. Do you see the pattern?
2011 - 93.61%
2013 - 75.40%
2013/15 - 86.96%
2018 - 84.22%
2019 - 72.02%
2021 - ?
Sure, if you look for hopium, you'll find it. With half of Bitcoin network is now offline, Binance being banned in UK, i don't see any reason for this correction to stop at 50% and even re-visiting $13k doesn't look off the charts.
Change my mind.
10 Yr Yields About to Break?When looking at the 10 Yr Yield chart, the price is currently sitting at a key area of support. A breakdown of that support could lead to a massive move to the downside. This would be enough to send equities and commodities soaring.
A bounce from here should take yields right up to two big areas of resistance - first, the recent high around 1.75 and long term resistance at ~1.98-2.00. A breakout of those levels, although highly unlikely, would signal the market actually pricing in rate hikes in the near future. If that were to happen, I'm also assuming equities and commodities would not like that one bit.
Another probable scenario is a temporary bounce up towards the resistance areas, followed by a rejection of those levels. Then, the most logical place for price to move would be down, down, down.
Don't underestimate how important this move in the TVC:US10Y will be for equities and commodities, regardless of which direction it will be.
The featured content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. Everything shared here is my own opinion. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment based on your own personal circumstances. Please subscribe to our channel if you like what you are seeing!
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Disclaimer/
On average, 90% of all stocks move down with the market, and 75% move up.
The wave principle applies to some extent to individual stocks, but counting the waves for them is often confusing and does not have much practical significance. But since the company has a large capitalization, we assume that the state of the shares depends on the psychology of the masses./
You know what Facebook does and what it is like without me. I can only say that the decline of the empire is slightly delayed. Also, Facebook does not pay dividends.
Chart features:
1) Many triangles
2) Relatively good ratios in all figures.
Weekly Market recap 17: rut into safe-havens?Overview: What's happening?
The risk assets have been confirming their short-term weakness and the need to correct and digest recent gains. We can see that most of the stock indices are in negative territory these days. The big technical picture of DXY also suggests possible upward momentum. We can expect the increased volatility in the Forex market in the upcoming months as USDJPY is approaching the long-term triangle's inflexion point.
What patterns are driving Forex?
DXY has formed H&S pattern on Daily timeframe, which is another evidence of a possible reversal, especially that it's formed around the long-term support. If DXY breaks 91.00, I want to be long on USD against some relatively weak currency.
USDJPY tells us the story of the approaching volatility storm in the Forex market. The pair formed a long-term symmetrical triangle. If the triangle breaks out in either direction, it will have a powerful impact on the market as both USD and JPY are safe-haven currencies.
No-brainer: short the weakest!
At this point, it's good to look for short-sell setups in indices. The logic is simple - consider the indices that got hit the hardest by the correction and historically have been underperforming relative to other indices. HK33HKD and IN50USD are good examples of such relatively weak indices. What's left is to wait for specific setups in these instruments according to your strategy. HK33HKD behaves interestingly - recently I mentioned it's been relatively strong for a short time due to capital inflows from Mainland investors. Now the underlying relative weakness came back and shrugged off recent sentiments of the Hong Kong market.
Summing up
There may be nice short-sell setups in indices these days. Watch out for the breakouts of the key levels in DXY and USDJPY and proceeding volatility.
Weekly Market recap 16: Preparing for the next leap. Global view: What's happening?
While global coronavirus cases rise to 100 million, the risk assets keep rising as well! DXY remains relatively neutral, as it's range-bound between ~90.75 local resistance area and ~88.75 long-term support. I'd confidently consider trades in USD related pairs once DXY breaks either of the range borders. For now, it's better to abstain from USD trend continuation setups.
Meanwhile, major stock indices form trend continuation patterns. The consolidation period in the global markets is the best time for the quality trend setups in the relatively strong indices.
Betting on the strongest
I picked three strongest indices at the moment: US100, JP225USD and HK33HKD.
You can see that the American tech index has already recovered from the pullback and makes new highs, while the leading Asian indices are consolidating. Nikkei has been in momentum since it's come out from the 30-year range. Chinese economy looks best during the pandemic compared to the rest of the world. Initially, China A50 index, which represents China Mainland companies was relatively stronger than the Hang Seng index as the political situation in Hong Kong affected the latter one.
Now, investors see the discount that appeared in Hong Kong stocks priced higher in Mainland exchanges, which motivates big flows of investments back to Hong Kong. It resulted in the short-term relative strength of Hang Seng compared to China A50.
Trading tactics for buying Indices
1. The strategy in Asian indices is simple - buy the breakout the market closes above the recent consolidations (HK33HKD - above 30000; JP225USD - above 29000).
2. Although the best entry in US100 could be the breakout of 13200, I guess it still makes sense buying it intraday for a short-term momentum gain.
Conclusion
There is not much going on in FX market right now as USD keeps being bound in the range, meanwhile the major stock indices present trend continuation opportunities.
Weekly Market recap 11: Getting ready for the next legWhat's happening
We've been consolidating for two weeks already, with the last week being more of downward pressure. The broad markets are consolidating near their respective resistance/support areas. The ultimate event I'm waiting for is the breakdown of 90.50 support and the continuation of the downtrend in DXY. I believe when we see that breakdown, the trend momentum opportunities will come in many fx pairs and stock indices.
Strategy
During the consolidations like now, it pays off to be patient and particularly picky, as the moves tend to be not lengthy and often choppy. For breakout traders, it's better to focus on the short-term consolidations with the numerous confirmation signals from the price action, and conservative profit targets.
Weekly Market recap 10: Here we go!What's happening
Last week marked the beginning of the continuation of the long-term downtrend in safe-havens. The market already offered short-term momentum opportunities at the initial move after DXY broke down the last support at 91.75.
Currently, we're experiencing the first stop or apparently a minor pullback in the global risk assets, as each major asset tests its respective resistance level (support in case of safe-havens). DXY is mildly rebounding from the support around 90.50.
Traders should be ready for decisive actions this week as the trend in risk assets (or a downtrend in DXY) may resume in any moment.
Action plan
There are two major price action scenarios I'd be interested in trading:
a)Breakout of the current resistance level and the trend continuation. In the case of Indices, it pertains only to those, that are not overextended, such as DAX, S&P500 & NASDAQ100. If you look at Nikkei 225, it's been one of the strongest Asian markets since the beginning of November, so it'd be natural if it corrects before the trend continuation.
b)Reversal of the short-term uptrend of the safe-havens in the context of selling the pullback of the long-term downtrend. For example, if DXY approaches 91.75, look for short-sell setups in USD and JPY pairs.
Weekly Market recap 9: First signs of actionGeneral overview - Asia leads
FX market and the Western Indices were incredibly boring last week, with DXY, DAX and S&P500 staying in the consolidation. Asian markets continued to advance. In SG30SGD (Singaporean index), you can find some of the smoothest and strongest uptrends. The Singaporean market seems to be relatively strong, along with India, Australia and Japan, with a recent pullback present only in Nikkei (Japan).
FX: More volatility overall and the strength in NZD
With the recent data releases in the US, DXY got spurred to more volatility. So, we might see a directional move this week. It would be more interesting if the market closes at or below 92.00.
NZD remains a relatively strong risk asset, especially after positive Retail Sales data yesterday.
Western Indices
While the Western stock indices keep consolidating, some of them formed nice patterns, like DAX, for example. A breakout from such pattern can present potential opportunities to ride a meaningful proceeding trend (the breakout might be happening already!). The US Indices continue to be relatively weaker, compared to the European ones. I'd be particularly cautious going long in S&P and NASDAQ. Brent broke out from the triangle and pushing higher, confirming the risk-seeking sentiment, so there should be a hidden strength in Indices overall.
Weekly Market recap 8: Are markets preparing for the advance?Mixed west with strength in Asia
The week started with mixed markets. The US and European markets are still digesting gains staying in the range near their respective key resistance areas.
Asian markets show some signs of strength following NIKKEI's recent powerful breakout from the long-term range. Smaller markets like India, Indonesia, Singapore also show positive dynamics compared to the US and Europe. It seems like the risk-seeking sentiment is there, although it didn't get to manifest itself in the west yet.
What's next?
Looking at DXY declining for three consecutive days, it makes sense that inflows into the risk assets continue. Let's see how DXY will behave near the local low at 92.15 and eventually at the last line of defence of DXY at 91.75. This period requires additional patience and selectivity in setups and instruments in FX and major western indices. Although, for those willing to try Asian markets, there is an established trend environment to try out.
Weekly Market recap 7Elections week rollercoaster
After the last week's wild price action related to the US Elections, DXY erased my expectations about any sort of USD recovery. DXY went from the top of the 3-months range to the bottom (currently testing the grey area). The last line of defence before the downtrend in USD resumes is around 91.75 low (Black horizontal line at the bottom of the range). I will be aggressively bearish on USD when that low is broken down.
Two scenarios
1)Risk assets (see NZDUSD and S&P500) are currently testing or slightly pierced their resistances. So we need a decisive impulse in either direction to have a clearer perspective on the sentiment this week. My bias is on the DXY breakdown and the start of risk-seeking sentiment.
2)If risk sentiment begins, NZDUSD seems to have relative strength, so I'd be considering buying it over other risk currencies. On the other hand, looking at the USDJPY, we can see a long-term descending triangle that had just broken down on November 5. I expect USD to be relatively weak currency among safe-havens. Shorting USD looks like a good idea to me.
Weekly Market recap 6: volatility may take off very soonI believe the first breakout impulse of a new trend in the major assets can start during the next week.
DXY broke out the long-term trendline and held above, closing at the border of the current sideways channel at 94.00 (even a little above it). If on Monday DXY closes confidently above 94.00, I'll be surely bullish on USD and JPY as that may signal the beginning of the new wave of risk aversion sentiment. If instead DXY forms a rejection candle signal, the reversal back into the range is likely.
The major asset classes came to significant price levels
1)Brent broke the important support at 39.00, confirming the short-term uptrend (started at the end of April) reversal according to the trend structure.
2)Although S&P500 hasn't broken September low yet, it's consolidating under MA(100), that adds to my bearish bias on stocks.
3)Gold is also testing its major support level.
Possible scenarios
Whatever asset you look at, the full-body candle in either direction will tell us a lot at this point. We either enter into a volatile trending market (in case of DXY being above 94.00) or a possible short-term trend of medium volatility in the opposite direction.
The market may be pricing in the upcoming United States Presidential election on November 3. The election result can be a catalyst for a new trend across the board.
Weekly Market recap 4: We need patience hereThe glimpse of optimism
The market got back to the explicit state of the "certain uncertainty". You can see that the H&S pattern in DXY failed to push the USD higher. DXY couldn't even hold above the key 94.00 level for a considerable time.
The sentiment shifted from risk aversion to some hints of optimism as S&P500 managed to recover from the correction and even came close to all-time highs. Brent oil made a fake breakout of the 39.00 level showing signs of strengths as it's still consolidating near the key level 44.00.
AUD has been the weakest risk-asset currency recently. Even though it showed attempts to resume the long-term uptrend as optimism grew.
When things get blur
For the last week, the market has been digesting the gains from optimism as S&P500 and AUDUSD pulled back while DXY recovered from recent losses. Brent oil behaves remarkably, however. I cannot really see any obvious relationship of it with stocks and currencies for now; it's just consolidating. The market state is pretty vague at this point. I assume the trigger to the new wave of volatility may come from Brent. The closure above the 44.00 level can hint the bearish sentiment for DXY and attempts to advance below 39.00 can push the DXY higher.
If it's too gloomy, get rid of AUD
Among risk assets, AUD has been the weakest recently. On the AUDUSD chart, you can see the failed attempt to go above MA(50). If it breaks 0.7000, the chances are high that the long-term uptrend is finished. For some reason, AUD pairs have had quite a smooth price action recently, which implies the inflow of liquidity or the general agreement on the direction of the currency. Looks like it is "in-play".
I would consider shorting AUD if the global sentiment shifts more towards safe-heavens.
All in all, it's a good time to be patient now and look for the confirmation signs of the sentiment shift. The technical picture tells that currencies have been in the range for a considerable time already. The longer it stays like this, the more interesting the proceeding trend will be. The most important here is patience. Everything can change very quickly, and traders need to be ready for this.
Gold forming the Handle to the Cup since 2011 - longterm Gold might go up to 1,950 first. but we will see in the next hours. Could also start the big down move right now. But It's about to form the handle to the Cup since 2011... which could lead to new ATHs end of the year.
Shorttermn Short - Longterm Long
Bitcoin long-term still in the triangleEven after the Bitcoin halving, I have not seen people drawing out this long term triangle. So I thought I'd share this real quick. I drew this as a sketch a long time ago and it has been working out very well so far as you can see!
Since I see Bitcoin bullish in the long run and we are moving closer and closer to the breakout of this triangle, I think we can see it shoot up after the break the triangle.
Just wanted to share this for a bigger view on Bitcoin
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Thank you for inspecting my idea
I'm happy to receive any kind of feedback
Weekly Market recap 1Ok, boring first, as I suspected it would be quite a calm week for USD as it ought to digest its previous downtrend move. The USD has been staying in the range without any hints of what direction the breakout would occur in. So let's wait and see what happens the upcoming week. If there are some decisive moves towards the range boundaries, we can devise a plan accordingly. I would be more prone to consider shorting USD in general, towards the previous trend.
Gold has finally made a decent correction after the surge to the new all-time highs. Notice, that the level 1900, which is the high of September 2011, now became the mirror support. That's a good sign of the healthy bullish trend. This week it'd be nice to look for some bullish reversal setups based on the rebound from 1900 level and trend continuation setups afterwards. I'm not much into fundamentals, although I find a solid reason to stay long on Gold in the mid-long term as the interest rates will most likely remain very low for a while, and printing money continues in the US and Europe.
Now, let's look at something more dynamic. My main focus in the upcoming week would be on the strength of the European currencies (EUR, CHF and GBP). Their indexes are all in a strong uptrend with some minor divergencies. The kicker here is to timely decipher which currency of the three has the most obvious relative strength. First of all, I chose not to display GBPCHF, as to me that's a symmetrical triangle formed in a multi-year range, - fairly neutral condition to have a bias in any direction.
EURCHF has drawn my attention since the middle of May 2020, as it started to show aggressive signs of the long-term downtrend reversal. Although the pair seems to tighten to 1.0740, gradually, I see this pair going up in the mid-term . Therefore I'm long EUR here overall.
EURGBP is consolidating near the upper band of the local range around 0.9050. That recent price action tells me EUR might be stronger at least in the short-term .
And here is the highlight - AUDNZD . The pair has broken the long-term trendline started in October 2017, and confidently advances further. Australia, as the second Gold producing country in the world, should correlate with the price of Gold somehow. We can see a positive correlation of the AUDNZD with Gold since the middle of July. Last week Gold has corrected the strong upside move, but AUDNZD remained strong. That tells about the relative strength of AUD . I'll be looking for the trend continuations setups in AUDNZD in particular as NZD seems weak against European currencies too.
That's it for now. I'd be curious to know your opinions about other fundamentals that drive the discussed currencies:)
Nasdaq/SP500 big picture road mapI tried the chart be as obvious as possible. pay attention and have this picture in your mind
Zoom out and you will understand...73b for a video service????? come on get serious
1. Easy to copy paste it
2. How much money do you expect companies to spend on video service over long term?
Waiting for RSI divergences on multiple timeframes, there is a chance it will go up to 100b and then the real fun will start... with 2 hands & 2 feets i am going to short it there without a stop loss...
