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Bigpicture

MACRO View on USDCHFI wanted to make this post because I think it's important, as a forex trader, to get a sense of the big picture. Too often we get stuck in the scrum, gasping, churning for air, as bigger traders using less leverage keep their positions open, earning profits from massive moves over time. This post is meant to highlight the fact that over the last 7 years, USDCHF has hardly moved from a historical perspective. This pair remains locked in a tight trading range with no end in sight. I posit a different framework brought over from my equities background; Trade currencies that actually present volatile situations that can be profited from. Go on the hunt for the best opportunities, not the overanalyzed directionless nonsense that this pair and most majors have become. You will thank me.
by PropNotes
1
Thinking big picture - BTC AnalysisHey there, I will say, that compared to so many on this platform, I won´t dive into all these technical indicators this time and will keep it very simple, yet so much more exciting. So we have been consolidating between 6000 and 8000$ for a few weeks now and had mostly sideways price action. On this chart you see trend-based fibonacci extension using the past bearmarket of 2014-15 by connecting the high of 1200 and the low at 152 on the Bitstamp exchange. As you see you get a almost perfect prediction of the 19980 top in 2017 with some key support and resistance levels for the past bullmarket and bearkmarket of 2018. We are now hovering at a key level, the 5.618. As you might know, the 6.18 levels tend to be one of the, if not the most important levels of fibonacci retracements and extensions. Not only that this level is of high significance but further we now touched the highly psychological and technical area of around 6000$. I will not call for a bottom, but I say with the utmost confidence that the price levels we are at now, are extremely important regarding technical analysis. If you are open for more information about how to draw and use these lines, please check out my YouTube channel "Enlightened Trading". Also there you will get a deeper perspective on other charts which I have been looking at. So don`t miss out. Wish you a happy new year and to make some gainzzz, personally, physically and financially. All the best, Enlightened Trading
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by EnlightenedTrading
GBPJPY Ready for a Channel Breakout?Hey traders, We can expect a breakout from the channel to the upside. Nice bounce on monthly support (double bottom) and now close to weekly resistance. Good risk reward ratio RRR if you take entries on lower time frame. You will most likely get a retest of the channel resistance after breakout (resistance becomes support). If we don't see a breakout to the upside, use retest of channel support becomes resistance for short entry. If this was helpful, give a thumbs up and follow me for more. Thanks! Let me know if you have any questions in the comment section. Happy trading, Johan
Long
by tradingwalk
3
S&P500 Big Picture EW CountThis is my prefered EW Count for the S&P500 at the moment. I expect more weakness short term, currently we are in a smaller abc 3 wave move on the downside however once this is finished I expect a corrective wave 2 to be finished after this the last fave waves to the upside should continue. I expect this to be the last run up in the current bullmarket. This EW correlates the interest rate cycle currently we saw for the first time an inversion of the 10Y and 2Y interest rates in the US normally after this recession signal we still have 22 months to go and Market that goes up another 12% in this period before a big correction begins, this would fit with the EW Count of the last Wave 5 up in the bigger Cycle.
TVC:SPX
by JonasBenjaminFriedrich
DAX Big Picture EW CountThis is my prefered EW Count the German Market Index DAX at the moment. According to this Count we are in a Corrective Wave 4, which plays out as a triangle. I expect one more push to the downside 11000-10700 area, which would be a good buying level for a Swing Position. Together with the seasonality DAX is normally weak during August, we have clearly seen this weakness this year in August as well. Starting mid. Sept however DAX starts to perform strong again until the end of the year. XETR:DAX
TVC:DEU40Long
by JonasBenjaminFriedrich
GBPAUD Potential Shark PatternOn the 4 hour and Daily, there is a strong potential of a shark pattern completing for GBPAUD . As of right now, any pullback is for the short. Fundamentally speaking, the bearish sentiment falling on GBP and AUD strength aligns itself with the technical analysis on this pair. If and once price reaches the target zone for entry, look for reversal candlestick patterns as well as consolidation before getting into the trade. These are two key confirmations needed for the harmonic pattern to play out. Make sure to take majority of profits at TP1, wait for the retracement, and then ladder in positions for the buy till TP2. Let's see how this plays out.
Long
by nahmed21
Big Picture View on AUDUSDWe can see the impulse move to the downside on the left of the chart, indicated by the first pink arrow. Then there was a consolidation structure formation which completed 5 waves and broke to the downside. This indicates that we are in the second impulse move, indicated by the second pink arrow on the right. Based on the initial impulse length, we can expect a fall to around the 0.5600 mark which is still a long way down! Obviously this will not go in a straight line and there will be many trade opportunities on the way down on smaller time frames. Check out our trading signal service to get the exact entry, SL and TP levels for our trades. Happy Trading! Linton
Short
by Linton_White
Mirror, mirror on the wall say whats the best trade of them allZero risk volatility The main risk free rate of return is the US government treasury bill and that is one of the oldest bull markets we have today. With rates so close to zero, some argue the market have already peaked. Weaponized "exorbitant privilege" The US monopoly over the global payments infrastructure has been challenged by Germany’s foreign minister, Heiko Maas, after European businesses have been caught between the European Union and the US over trade with Iran amid US sanctions. If both Russia, China and now Europe create their own payment systems, the world can route around the weapon that is now the dollar and the world dependence on the dollar will subside. By weaponizing their currency USA risk loosing the dollar as world reserve currency. The zero lower bound When interest rates are super low, central banks can not lower them that much more. This creates a liquidity trap and the phenomena is well known. This becomes a big problem when the economy is imploding and needs stimulating. Since central bank can not lower the rates, the government will instead have to spend. Hopefully they will print money and spend on building (instead of going to war) out infrastructure. The Chinese "One Belt One Road" is a good example. If the Chinese succeeds, this will also contribute to shifting financial power away from the dollar. Loose cannons on a ship If the world starts to route around the dollar and the T-bills as zero risk might comes into question, the big question is what can replace it. It has to be something that is deep and liquid enough. Can you think of something obvious? Me neither. So if there is nothing obvious, a whole lot of money will start looking for something that at least won't go to zero. If government starts spending on infrastructure commodities might become a money magnet. Commodities The US stock market have already had a huge record breaking bull market and subsequently one of the sharpest dops. Commodities on the other hand has been more or less ignored for a very long while. Even though the world is eating more food and building more stuff and there is talk "peak in this and that", the narratives have failed to compete with that of IPOs on Nasdaq. If commodities starts going up in price, this will also add fuel to inflation which is a boon in a deflationary economy and will help to inflate the huge debt burden of the world (which is a reason why I believe those in power won't try to prevent it). Current I've been a dollar bull since it started to trade upwards some time ago and as the world stock markets started to go down. I think the dollar will strengthen as more problems in the economies of the world starts to surface. Then after that.... then I think commodities will start to trend upwards.
AMEX:DJPLong
by burgerben
BA Bull FlagBA has been bouncing around in this area for a while now after a really strong bull run over the last few years. As a big competitor in the airline business its no wonder it keeps its value even in tough times. The reason I believe this to still be a cheap stock and looking to see BA go further 1, 2, 3 years down the line is taking into consideration the space race we are seeing... or maybe you haven't been seeing it. Boeing has a major hand in space technology and its no secret that SpaceX is pushing as hard as they can to make it to Mars first and provide private passenger space trips around the moon. When you think we've seen everything already... stop and think again but in a much bigger picture and when I say bigger picture I mean literally out of this world. BA will see challenges in a struggling market just like anyone else but it is definitely an investment of the future. Pretty soon we aren't just going to need airplanes anymore. This Bull Flag is just one more step into another hopeful breakout. PSA: Needless to say this is all my opinion and I'm not a professional so please do your own research before investing.
NYSE:BA
by Bremcakes
BTCUSD Descending Triangle Check-in - Big Picture Set UpsWith the bullish action the last few days, I wanted to check the overall market structure to see if any major breaks had occurred. We are still ranging within this descending triangle since mid-January 2018. By my calculations it could be another 39 days - 59 days until we break out of this long term descending triangle. You can see that the range is tightening, which is a good indication for a breakout. Think of a spring coiling... My classical charting training says that the descending triangle is a bilateral pattern so the breakout could be either bullish or bearish. More patience required, although it is not unheard of for a break before the apex is reached so it could happen at any time if there is FUD or the Whales have other ideas.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by HelenaDashwood