Time For The Long Await Selloff?IF Intermediate wave 2 finally ended, this will serve as the current preliminary analysis for tracking Intermediate wave 3 down. Confirmation of Intermediate wave 2 ending will take at least 3 more days, so this analysis is subject to change. Based on the most specific historical models that are relationally relevant to an Intermediate wave 3, the quartile movement extensions serving as checkpoints and likely bottom (pink levels on chart) for Intermediate wave 3 are 165.83%, 181.41%, and 227.27%. The models cannot agree on a specific duration in hours, however, there are pockets of agreement with the strongest at 168-175 hours, secondary is 185-192, third is 149-156 hours. The next set of data is slightly broader and places the quartile movement extensions (light blue levels) at 147.09%, 165.83%, and 306.68%. Strongest model agreement for duration is at 70 hours (which was the length of Intermediate wave 2), secondary is 112 (length of Intermediate wave 1) and 426 hours while third model agreement is at 155, 174, and 199 hours. The broader set of historical data has extension quartiles (yellow levels) at 141.46%, 176.435%, and the third quartile remains at 306.68%. Strongest model agreement for duration is 70 and 426 hours (which are unlikely for wave 3) with secondaries at 112, 142, and 224 (double length of wave 1). Third most agreement is at 168, 174, and 213 hours.
Preliminary forecast is the bottom around 174 hours which is around October 6th. The bottom could be between 4114-4156, but likely below 4140. The levels in this assessment will not change but the forecasts for the bottom will be updated in future forecasts as each of the 5 waves near completion. Intermediate wave 4 should begin more upward movement after Intermediate wave 3 has completed. September looks like a selloff, but October should claw back 20-50% of the losses.
Bigshort2023
NQ- HAS SCOPE TO XYZMTF Long leading into a long term short position
extreme link to BTC can see something almost exact to match
Has scope to be various ew counts and the main 2 both have scope to hit the desired zone with multiple confluence's
Would make sense in terms of seasonal pivot timing and line up nicely on multiple fib time pulls.
also i can the inverse movements within the DXY and falls in line.
could go deeper but i have moves on es and ym that would also corelate
Having said all of the above my secondary idea see's at at resistance currently with a small push to the upside with a pivot being placed and seeing us attack and the high time frame lows to form a true bottom and very first stages of a new bull run this year.
expectation of a very sideways first wave for a prolonged period that is difficult to enter with confidence then a very deep wave 2 that stops the feint hearted long term positions
followed by an extreme wave 2 that climbs beyond all expectations