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Bigskycrypto

Bitcoin - Is it Time to Panic?At the low yesterday, the price of Bitcoin was down a little over 27% from the all-time high in March. In previous bull market cycles, we have seen many corrections of 30% or more. As was the case in past cycle corrections, we are seeing a lot of panic selling. Another issue is being in over leveraged positions and getting stopped out during corrections. Unfortunately, many inexperienced market participants are not familiar with Bitcoin's past price history. So, when we experience a large correction, they panic and sell when history has shown that these corrections are great buying opportunities. But, unfortunately, past history has shown us that many people will be too scared to buy during this correction and many won't start buying again until the price of BTC is back up near it's all-time high. If you take the time to study Bitcoin's price history, it is very clear that Bitcoin has been running in 4-year market cycles. This is especially true for the last two market cycles. From bear market bottom to the next bear market bottom, the 2015 to 2018 market cycle was 1432 days in length, and the length of the 2018 to 2022 market cycle was 1438 days. Even the elapsed times between events (bottom to halving, halving to peak, and peak to bottom) during each of these cycles are very consistent. Obviously, this market cycle trend doesn't have to continue, but I believe that it will, at least for this cycle. If that is the case, then I wouldn't expect the post halving bull market to begin until October or November of this year. Looking back at the previous two cycles, the 2016 bull market started 259 days after the halving, and the 2020 bull market started 149 days after the halving. There is always a chance that I am totally wrong and the peak in March was the peak for this market cycle and it will be all downhill from here. But I believe the probability of that is very low. I believe we could see a lot more volatility and possibly even lower prices leading up to the post halving bull market. The German and the US governments still hold significant amounts of BTC which they could sell adding to downside pressure. There is also the Mt Gox BTC that could add to selling pressure driving the price of BTC lower. But in the coming months I believe any excess selling of BTC will be absorbed by the market and eventually the current bearish sentiment will flip to Bullish. I will be using this correction and the time between now and this fall to increase my position sizes. But this is just how I am approaching this market cycle; every investor needs to do their own research and make their own decisions. I also make my decisions based on my long-term view and long-time horizon.
BNC:BLXLong
by Bigsky_Crypto
2022 to 2026 Bitcoin Market Cycle?Obviously, I don't have a crystal ball, however, just for fun I have estimated what the timing of this current market cycle may look like. I haven't made any predictions on the chart as far as the peak price or the price of the next bottom. Although, if the trend of diminishing returns continues I would expect a peak between $80k and $90k. If that trend is broken a peak between $100k and $200k is likely. What I have done on this chart is laid out the dates when each event may occur. I estimated the dates based off of the average elapsed times between the events from the last two market cycles. In doing this, I am making a big assumption that this market cycle will follow the timing of the last two cycles. So far this assumption appears to be correct. The estimated elapsed time from the bear market bottom on November 21st 2022 to the upcoming halving on April 18th will be 515 days. That is very close to the elapsed times from the last two cycles (542 and 513 days). But, that doesn't mean that the elapsed times between the remaining events will closely match the past cycles. One recent event that could very possibly alter Bitcoins market cycle is the approval of 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs on January 10th 2024. Bitcoin futures ETFs have been around for seveal years but they differ from a spot ETF. A Bitcoin futures ETF holds Bitcoin futures contracts to get exposure to the price of Bitcoin. A Bitcoin spot ETF buys actual Bitcoin which is then held by a custodian in a secure digital wallet. As we all know the amount of available Bitcoin is finite, and with the upcoming halving each block will produce half as much (3.125 per block mined). The approval of the spot Bitcoin ETFs will dramatically widen access to the world’s largest cryptocurrency for not only institutional investors but also retail investors. This additional demand for Bitcoin could very well exacerbate the already tight market supply driving up the price faster than previous cycles. Only time will tell how this current market cycle will play out. It will be interesting to use these estimated event dates to gauge how this cycle compares to the previous cycles. If we see Bitcoin hit a new all-time high well before the estimated date it could mean that we could see a left translated cycle. However, it could also mean that the additional demand from the ETFs will drive the price of BTC to levels beyond what most analysts believe is possible.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Bigsky_Crypto
2
My Bitcoin Pull Back ScenarioI want to start by saying that I realize BTC is looking very bullish right now. But with all the difficulty it is having getting and staying above $38k, I feel that this could lead to a pullback. At a minimum, a short-term pullback and worst case a pullback lasting several weeks or more. I could be wrong and BTC could just keep moving higher, but I want to keep an open mind, even to the worst-case scenarios. So this chart depicts what I see as potential bearish scenarios. Looking at the chart you can see four different scenarios. Below is an explanation of each scenario. 1 = Short-term pullback, $35K level holds and BTC moves higher from there. 2 = $35K level fails and BTC drops down to retest the breakout level around $31,500 and bounces higher from there. 3 = $35K and FWB:31K levels fail and BTC drops back below $30k, possibly as low as $25k. #3 would act as a secondary scare for a large number of crypto holders forcing many to panic sell, a wick down into the low $20k levels could be possible. 4 = BTC getting too bullish too fast going into the SEC decision on the ARK 21shares ETF. And the SEC rejects their application causing a severe sell-off. I am very bullish on Bitcoin long-term so I would consider any of these scenarios as a great time to add to positions. In reality many people will panic sell when they should actually take advantage of lower prices and buy more. In my last published chart, I showed how similar the last two market cycles were as far as elapsed time between events (Bottom to halving), (halving to peak), (peak to bottom), and even (Bottom to the date BTC hit a new all-time high). Also, the overall length of the market cycles, Bear market bottom to the next bear market bottom were extremely close, 1431 to 1437 days. My reason for mentioning this is because so far this market cycle seems to be following the same trend. Looking at the elapsed time from the bear market bottom to the halving, market cycle #2 (2015 to 2018) had an elapsed time of 542 days. market cycle #3 (2018 to 2022) had an elapsed time of 513 days. For this current market cycle the halving is estimated to occur sometime between April 17th and the 23rd. That would give this market cycle an elapsed time of between 513 and 519 days. That is very similar to the last two cycles. This leads me to believe that Bitcoin is still following the same 4-year cycle as the previous two market cycles. If this continues to be the case, it means that there is still plenty of time to build positions. It also means that any pullbacks should be looked at as buying opportunities. If this market cycle does in fact mirror the last two as far as elapsed time, then that would mean that a bull market peak could be expected in late 2025. Obviously, the price of BTC won’t move straight up as there will be corrections along the way and some will most likely be severe, possibly 30% or more. So, my strategy will continue to be the same as it has been for months. I will continue to DCA slowly into my positions and occasionally increase the size of my purchases during steep pullbacks. In closing I just want to say that no one really knows how this current market cycle will play out. And just because the previous two cycles matched so closely it doesn’t guarantee that this cycle will as well. But, until I see clear evidence that BTC is deviating from the previous market cycles I will continue to believe that I have at least six to twelve more months to build positions.
Long
by Bigsky_Crypto
1
Bitcoin Elapsed Time Between Events ChartI am once again publishing this Bitcoin chart (3-day time frame) showing the entire price history, and just how closely the last two cycles matched as far as the elapsed time between events. The reason for publishing it again is that I have added another event (when a new all-time high was hit). I then measured the elapsed time from each bear market bottom to when a new all-time high was hit. Once again, I was amazed how close these measurements were to each other for the last two cycles. Obviously, this isn't a massive discovery, but I find the consistency very interesting. It will also be interesting to see if the elapsed times for this market cycle once again come close to the last two market cycles. Before continuing I want to say that Bitcoin’s very first market cycle was much shorter than the last two market cycles. So, it is possible that the fact that the last two matched so closely was just a fluke. Anyway, I will be watching closely to see how this market cycle plays out. So far, the elapsed time from the bear market bottom on November 21st, 2022, to the halving which is estimated to take place in late April 2024 (approximately 512 days) should be very close to the last two cycles. Bitcoin Market Cycle #2 vs #3 Cycle #2 - Bear market bottom to halving = 542 days Cycle #3 - Bear market bottom to halving = 513 days Cycle #4 - Bear market bottom to halving = estimated = 512 days Cycle #2 - Halving to Bull market peak = 526 days Cycle #3 - Halving to Bull market peak = 548 days Cycle #2 - Bull market peak to bear market bottom = 363 days Cycle #3 - Bull market peak to bear market bottom= 376 days Cycle #2 - Bear market bottom to a new all-time high = 723 days Cycle #3 - Bear market bottom to a new all-time high = 717 days Market cycle #2 total duration (bottom to bottom) = 1431 days Market cycle #3 total duration (bottom to bottom) = 1437 days Just for fun I want to use this data to estimate when a new all-time high might be hit for this current market cycle. What I will do is split the difference between cycle #2 (723 days) and cycle #3 (717 days) which would give me 720 days. So, if I project out 720 days from the bear market bottom on November 21st, 2022, I get the date November 9th, 2024. Obviously, I wouldn't expect it to hit the exact date but I would watch for a new all-time high sometime in October or November of next year. Of course this could all be meaningless and Bitcoin could hit a new all-time high much sooner. Like I said this is more just for fun. If we wanted to take it a step further and try to calculate when this current market cycle might peak we cold add the elapsed times from cycle #2 (Bottom to peak = 1068 days), and Cycle #3 (Bottom to peak = 1061 days). So if we split the difference we would get 1065 days. So, if I project out 1065 days from the bear market bottom on November 21st, 2022, I get the date October 20th, 2025 for the peak of this market cycle. Most likely this is all meaningless but looking at the past price history of Bitcoin the bottoms and tops do tend to occur primarily in November and December. So this might not be far off unless this market cycle is much different than the last two. As I said earlier, I will be watching to see hoe this current market cycle plays out and how it compares to the last two cycle.
BNC:BLXLong
by Bigsky_Crypto
2
The BTC Diminishing Returns TrendIf BTC experiences another 80% drop in the percentage gain from the bear market low to the bull market peak, that would result in about a 422% increase for the next bull market. In U.S. dollar terms, that would equate to an approximate value peak of $80k for the next bull market. Of course, nothing says that this trend has to continue. There are only two data points, but technically, that constitutes a trend. I hope this trend is broken during this next bull market; I would prefer to see a much higher peak. I think an $80k peak for the next bull market would be disappointing.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Bigsky_Crypto
2
Possible Bitcoin Cup and Handle PatternI have felt for a while that the bear market low would be much lower than the June 18th low. The previous two bear market lows were both down approximately 85% from their peaks. A similar percentage drop for this bear market would lower the price of Bitcoin to between $10k and $11k. I'm not convinced the price will go that low, but I could see a bottom around $15k. But, I have also been impressed with the resilience of Bitcoin in the face of all the macro issues facing the markets. Because Bitcoin has been highly correlated with the stock market, I believe all of the macro issues facing the stock market will also affect Bitcoin's performance. I believe that will determine if the price of Bitcoin goes higher or lower from here. I always try to keep an open mind, and as such, I have to entertain the possibility that the June 18th low could be the bear market low. Looking at the daily time frame, Bitcoin is forming a nice cup pattern. Is it possible this ultimately forms a Cup and Handle pattern? Because Cup and Handle patterns are typically continuation patterns, if it plays out, this could lead to Bitcoin pushing back up into the $25k to $30K level. I am in no way an expert in technical analysis, so I would appreciate any feedback. Am I way off in my analysis? In some ways, I hope the June 18th low is the bear market bottom. In other ways, I wouldn't mind if Bitcoin dropped to $15k or lower because that would mean even cheaper prices, and I am still accumulating positions for the next bull market. My view is that the next bull market is still a long way off, probably later in 2024, so there will be plenty of time to fill positions. Again, this is just my opinion, and I could be way off.
FTX:BTCPERPLong
by Bigsky_Crypto
2
A possible Bearish Bitcoin ScenarioThis is my bearish scenario for Bitcoin in the short to medium term (Long-term, I remain bullish ). In my opinion, it looks like BTC has been forming a descending triangle since the June 18th low. Even though it looks as though BTC has broken out to the upside, I believe there is a possibility that this could be a false breakout. If this is a false breakout and the price of BTC falls back into the triangle and breaks below support, I believe the price will eventually bottom down near $12k. Although I believe this is possible, I would put the probability of it happening at 30% to 40%. With all of the macroeconomic turmoil we have been seeing lately, Bitcoin has actually held up pretty well. But my belief is that we have not seen the worst of it yet. I feel there is a chance that the stock market has not yet bottomed, and we could see another leg lower. If this is true, it most likely would pull BTC down with it. As I said, I remain bullish long-term but don't expect the next bull market to begin until sometime in 2024.
BNC:BLXShort
by Bigsky_Crypto
2
Bitcoin Descending Triangle?Is it possible that since the June collapse Bitcoin has been forming a descending triangle? Could we see a repeat of November 2018 when the price of Bitcoin finally broke down from the descending triangle it was forming and dropped about 50 percent? That drop ultimately formed the bear market bottom. How strange would it be to see a similar scenario play out in this bear market? The target price that I have calculated from the descending triangle is just under $9600, which would be a decline of about 86% from the peak on November 10th, 2021. That would be almost identical to the declines we saw in the last two bear markets. I want to say that this is my worst-case scenario, and I feel the only way this would play out is if macroeconomic issues significantly worsened. If Inflation unexpectedly jumps higher again, forcing the FED to substantially increase the next rate hike to 100 BPS or even 125 BPS. This would undoubtedly shock investors and most likely lead to the sell-off in the stock market getting substantially worse. Because Bitcoin has been highly correlated to the stock market, that shock would lead to a massive sell-off of Bitcoin and all high-risk assets. Obviously, this is all just conjecture on my part, and as I said, this is a worst-case scenario. I have also published an idea about how the June 18th low at around $17,600 could be the bear market bottom. I am trying to keep an open mind to all possibilities. It is also highly likely that the bear market bottom could be somewhere between the June 18th low and this worst-case low. Regardless of what happens, I remain incredibly bullish on Bitcoin long-term. A part of me would not even mind seeing this play out, as it would lead to an incredible buying opportunity. On the other hand, as I said, it would take a severe macroeconomic event to trigger this, and it might be better if we avoid going down that road.
Short
by Bigsky_Crypto
Bitcoin - Could This be the Reversal Point?I am hopeful that bitcoin could be at a reversal point. I am seeing a nice bounce off of the daily 50 EMA which acted as support and a reversal point during the last 2 pullbacks. Also, this would be a beautiful bounce off of the 0.618 FIB level. I'm watching for a strong close to this daily candle and then follow through to the upside. Also, BTC still has the 4 hour 7 ema and 200 ema just above it. First I would like to see BTC regain those two moving averages before I start believing this pullback may be coming to an end. The measured move from the triangle that bitcoin just broke down out of is around $48k but I am hoping that the recent low will be close enough. Even though this current pullback seems extreme, BTC is only down about 18% from the all-time high. Also, BTC just this morning finally touched the weekly 7 EMA after being extended pretty far above it for quite a while. To illustrate just how strong this run higher has been over the last six months bitcoin has not even touched the weekly 21 EMA since September 7th. During the 2017 bull market, there were approximately six major pullbacks ranging from 30% to 40%. If bitcoin was to pullback to the weekly 21 EMA right now it would be about a 37.5% pullback so it would still be inline with pullbacks from the previous bull market. It also aligns with some major support around $38.5k. Looking at the weekly and monthly charts bitcoin still looks very healthy and I won't get too concerned until I see a weekly close below the weekly 21 EMA.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Bigsky_Crypto
Bitcoin - Repeating Pattern?I'm seeing a repeating pattern in bitcoins price action. This chart is the 4 hour time frame but I also see a similar pattern on the daily which spanned the whole month of August. The pattern consists of three peaks that form a sort of dome pattern with the highest peak in the middle. As this latest pattern completes I am wondering whether it will also conclude with a large pull back. Not earth shattering analysis but just a pattern that to me looks like bitcoin keeps repeating lately.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Bigsky_Crypto
2
Bitcoin Price Action vs the CME GapThe reason I started looking into this is because I was wondering if there could be a scenario where the price of bitcoin could stay relatively close to $10k but the CME price when it opens on Sunday gaps down passed the price of bitcoin filling the gap from July then bounce back up to near the current price of BTC. The CME bitcoin futures price closed today at $10,620 so if The upper chart simply shows the CME gap which formed from the close on July 24th to the open on July 26th and has yet to be filled. The bottom chart shows what the price of bitcoin did during the hours that the CME was closed causing the CME to respond with a gap. I was curious how close the CME price came to the bitcoin spot price when it gaped, I was looking for any over shoot. Looking at the data it looks like the CME price gaped very close to the spot price with little if any over shoot. It is possible that the price of bitcoin over the weekend could rise instead of dropping back to or under $10k. As close as the price is to the gap right now I feel pretty strongly that the price of BTC is more likely to drop so that the gap can be filled rather then take off higher from here leaving the gap unfilled.
CME:BTC1!
by Bigsky_Crypto
2
Bitcoin - The Head and Shoulders formation Has CompletedBitcoin has now completed the Head and Shoulders formation. After coming close to breaking the neckline yesterday morning bitcoin did indeed break it this morning. As a result, bitcoin has experienced a significant drop in price, as of me writing this the price is at $10,598 after hitting a low of $10,510 a little earlier. So how low will the price of bitcoin go? I honestly cannot predict precisely just where bitcoin will bottom and start moving higher again. I can say that the measured move of the Head and Shoulders formation is near $9800. As you can see on the chart there is the CME gap which extends from $9665 up to $9925. As I said the measured move would be met at around $9800 but if the price of bitcoin does indeed get that low, I would expect it to drop further to fully fill the gap. It is still too early to say if the measured move will be met, there is also the long-term trend line (light blue line). This trend line begins at the all-time high set in December 2017 and extends to hit the high set in June of 2019. This trend line was broken when bitcoin pushed above it on July 27th on its way up to $12k. It is possible that it might provide enough support to limit the downside. It is possible that this pull back could only result in a re-test of the long-term trend line. Bitcoin has already hit a low of $10,510 and I estimate the trend line to be in the $10,450 to $10,475 area so the drop to $10,510 may have been close enough to act as a re-test. Only time will tell but that could have been the bottom and bitcoin could just bounce higher from here. Having said that though I should say that in the short history of the CME bitcoin futures, all the gaps have eventually been filled. Eventually is the key word here because it is always possible for it to be filled not now but later in the future. During the coming or I should say current bull run because I believe we are in the early stages of a new bull run, if the price of bitcoin reaches $50,000 and the following bear market results in an equivalent price drop as the last one (around 85%) that would mean a low of $7500 which would then easily fill the CME gap. So really the peak of the bull market could be even higher, I would say even up to $70,000 and still fill the CME gap during the following bear market. As always, I want to stress that I remain very bullish in the medium to long term. I have no doubt that this bull market will be the same as in the past, there will be deep corrections along the way. During the 2017 bull market there were several corrections of 30% to 40%, even if bitcoins price does drop to fill the CME gap that would only be about a 23% drop. A 30% drop would put the price of bitcoin in the mid $8k range and a 40% drop would put the price of bitcoin in the mid $7k range. These seem severe but they would still be in line with corrections from the 2017 bull market. So, in closing I would just say that there is no need for panic, I find it interesting that no matter how well bitcoin has performed whenever there is any type of correction people start freaking out. We must remember that this is all part of the process, I actually welcome these corrections which I use to add to my long-term positions and as trade opportunities.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Bigsky_Crypto
BTC Close to Completing Head and Shoulders PatternThis is a follow up to my last published idea. With the drop yesterday and this morning bitcoin has now almost completed the Head and Shoulders formation. Since the low this morning bitcoin has bounced but as of me writing this it is yet to be determined if this bounce can turn into a real recovery, possibly taking bitcoin back to and even above $12k. Or is this bounce just a dead cat bounce distended to fail sending bitcoin even lower possibly down to fill the CME gap. Coincidentally, the measured move from the Head and Shoulders pattern would take bitcoin down deep into the CME gap. Whichever way bitcoin heads in the short term I remain very bullish in the medium and long term. Looking back at the 2017 bull market there were quite a few deep correction along the way, so I fully expect the same this time.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Bigsky_Crypto
2
Bitcoin's Slow GrindSo since peaking at nearly $14K about two months ago bitcoin has been stuck in a consolidation phase, ranging from over $13K down to just over $9K. There were a couple times where bitcoin looked like it might be ready to breakout to new 2019 highs only to fail and drop lower again. My feeling is that bitcoin is slowly working it's way down to the yellow weekly 21 EMA, especially now that the 4 hour death cross has been confirmed earlier today (50 EMA & 200EMA). If you go back and study the 2016 - 2017 bull market you will find several examples where bitcoin after making a nice run higher would pull back into the weekly 21 EMA before moving higher again. As I said I believe this is what we will see again although if it does I don't feel like bitcoin is just going to shoot higher again, instead I feel like it will continue to be a slow grind higher. Now, I want to also say that just because I feel this is very possible it is obviously not a guarantee. It is also possible that the bulls will regroup and push bitcoin higher before hitting the weekly 21 EMA. Another possibility is that bitcoin will continue to pull back but the weekly 21 EMA will fail to provide support and bitcoin will just keep on falling. If this happens and bitcoin drops too far (sub $7K or even sub $6K) IMO this will damage the bullish structure that bitcoin has built since the beginning of the year. I believe we would then see another prolonged period of consolidation before the bulls can recover and start another push higher. As long as bitcoin remains above the weekly 21 EMA I will remain bullish overall. If bitcoin does drop significantly below the weekly 21 EMA I will then become short and medium term bearish although I will still remain long term bullish (years).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Bigsky_Crypto
4
BTC - The Genesis of a Bull MarketWelcome crypto enthusiasts! Today I want to go back in time to look at the beginning of the second Bitcoin 4-year cycle (2015 to 2019) and analyze how it transitioned into a new bull market. I am doing this to try and gain insight into the current (which is the third) major 4-year cycle (2019 to 2023). Looking at the 2015 chart you can see a large consolidation period, the second 4-year cycle began at the beginning of this consolidation period. You can see that this particular consolidation period lasted approximately 290 days until there was an explosive breakout from the consolidation on a marked increase in volume. As you can see just prior to this massive spike a golden cross occurred, you can also see that during this spike the 100 exponential moving average (EMA) crossed above the 200 EMA for the first time in over a year. Once this spike peaked you can see that there was a 41% pullback to retest the breakout level. Bitcoin eventually bounced off of the breakout level after testing it several times and then took off and never looked back, this was the beginning of the bull market cycle which lasted from the end of 2015 to the peak in December of 2017. So now let's look at this current 4-year market cycle. Looking at the 2019 chart you can see once again a consolidation period which lasted approximately 126 days. This consolidation period again marks the start of this cycle. Just like as happened in 2015, you can see an explosive breakout from this consolidation period on a marked increase in volume. You can see once again there was also a golden cross during the current spike and note that the 100 day EMA is just about to cross over the 200 EMA for the first time in almost a year. What we do not know yet is exactly how this will play out. Will we see a pullback just like in 2015 to test the breakout level? If so BTC would need to pull back approximately 45% which is in line with the pullback in 2015. Another question is, is this the start of a new bull market cycle? My feeling is that what we are witnessing is the start of a new bull market. However, this does not mean that Bitcoin is just going to rocket higher to new all-time highs any time soon. Looking back at the 2015 breakout, it took over a year for the price of BTC to climb to a new all-time high. I have no way of knowing if it will take that long this time but it very well could. Either way, as I said my opinion is that we are now experiencing the early stages of a new bull market cycle. My opinion is that we will see a pullback from this current peak, I don't know if it will be a 45% pullback but I wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback at least into the mid $5000 area. Up to this point, I have been trying to be patient and slowly accumulate but I will be accelerating my Bitcoin purchases on any meaningful dips. Strap in because I feel like it is going to be on hell of a ride!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Bigsky_Crypto
4
BTC - Is another Big Move Coming?Welcome crypto enthusiasts! I wish I had some brilliant market insight to share with you but I'm afraid what I am sharing here is probably more likely obvious to many already. Having said that though, I will share my opinions anyway. Looking at the chart I have published you can see that Bitcoin is once again approaching a very important medium-term trend line. It is this trend line that Bitcoin tested several times in November before finally failing and dropping about 50%. In the last chart that I published on March 2nd, I shared that I was seeing continuation patterns forming on both the Bitfinex price chart and on the Coinbase chart. On the Bitfinex chart, what I saw (and still see) is a symmetrical triangle pattern in the process of being formed. On the Coinbase chart, what I see is an ascending triangle forming, both are bearish continuation patterns. The big question I have now is how will Bitcoin react this time to the medium-term trend line? Will it once again prove to be too much resistance for Bitcoin to overcome causing another large decline? Or will Bitcoin finally be able to break through and start a meaningful recovery? I would love to see Bitcoin smash right through it and start heading higher. I would even be happy to see Bitcoin break through it and just continue sideways for a while. Either way if Bitcoin can break through, I feel that it will be a substantial psychological event that may signify that Bitcoin has indeed bottomed. Having said all of that though, I must be honest and say that I am leaning more towards Bitcoin failing once again. If in fact Bitcoin does fail to push through I can envision a couple of possible scenarios. The first is the most extreme scenario in which Bitcoin fails once again and has another substantial drop and eventually retests the 2013 high at $1175. The second scenario is that Bitcoin fails once again but only drops and retests the mid December lows around $3200 forming a double bottom which I believe would strengthen the case that the $3000 to $3200 level most likely is the bottom for Bitcoin. I will add that even if the first scenario was to happen, I still am and will remain bullish on cryptocurrencies long term.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Bigsky_Crypto
2
BTC - Continuation to the Downside?So, I really hate to be so negative but when I look at the weekly BTC price charts on both Bitfinex and Coinbase I see continuation patterns forming. I feel that the period BTC has been in since early December has been more of a pause to consolidate before continuing lower rather than building a base at a bottom. Before continuing I want to say that even though to me it looks as though there is a chance BTC may go substantially lower I still remain bullish on cryptos long-term (years). I just feel that it is going to be months, possibly a year or more before we see a major bull market again. Believe me, when I say that I would like nothing more than to be proven wrong. I hate the thought of the crypto that I do hold (at a substantial loss at this point) dropping even further. Unfortunately, looking at the Bitfinex weekly chart though I see a very clear symmetrical triangle or pennant in the process of being formed. Symmetrical triangles usually form during a trend as a continuation pattern and since it started forming after the huge drop BTC experienced in November/December, I would have to conclude that the odds are for a continuation to the downside. One question would be then, how far to the downside? I guess it would depend on how you define the pattern. If you look at it as a bearish pennant then it is possible that there could be a drop equal to the original flag pole, which would be a substantial drop ($3285 by my calculation). If you look at the pattern as a symmetrical triangle forming during a bearish trend, then you could simply take the price distance at the widest point (around $1200) and subtract that from the breakdown point to give you a possible target. Looking at the Coinbase chart I see a bearish ascending triangle pattern forming, also a continuation pattern. I would estimate that the downside targets for this pattern would be similar to the Bitfinex chart. What I will be watching for is for these patterns to continue to form, possibly a move higher from where we are now up to the upper resistance trend line before a reversal back down to the support line. What I feel would negate these patterns would be if there was a substantial downside break outside of the pattern without any substantial continuation. Say if BTC broke to the downside outside of the pattern but the low of the flag pole around the $3100 to $3200 area held and BTC recovered and moved higher. I would then have to reassess the whole pattern and the possibility that the $3000 area may well be a bottom or close to it.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Bigsky_Crypto
6
ETHEREUM: It`s probabvly TIME TO BUY!#ChanceoftheyearHey tradomaniacs and cryptoheads, welcome to an analysis of ethereum! My friends, I think it`s time to buy! BUY WHY? In this analysis we wanna take a look at time-cyclers which are clearly underestimates and not as common as the classic TA which is basically used to compare price-action or price-patterns. From another perspective looking at the big picture, we see that ethereum had an awesome run with the recent impulse-phase down from 5,60 up to it`s peek of 1.436,-! IS THAT CRAZY? Yeah.. the hype-train of 2017 was very fast and completly sold out and we`ve never seen so many passengers. But ever since the train was so fast a lot of passengers got shaky hands and sweaty palms. The train was very fast, as fast as no train before and the crowd inside the train felt insecure and fear crept in. The entire trip was an amazing journey of 399 DAYS and it was obviously time to rest and enjoy the result of this new world record. The impulse was over and we were heading into a correction which took excactly 399 DAYS until now! The market indicates more and more evidence for a new rally. New carbon has been delivered and the burning stoves are clened up and ready for an new ride.. Technical Aspects: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Timelines: All Time-Lines are pretty harmonic indicated by the low of the sub-divided SIN-Wave @ the High of the primary Sin-Wave. The Alpha-Waves are confirming that cycle and accurate time-lines are indicating a perfct cycle. The impulse- and corrective phase are showing the same running time of 399 DAYS. Price-Action: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wave 1 has been completed with the previous impulse @ Wave 5 and we`ve made 25513,25%. Since then the corrective-wave retraced down to 83,29$ which is still a very important support. This retracement indicates a motive wave, which is not a classic impulse but eventually a leading diagonal because WAVE C of the correction went below the territory of WAVE 4 but DID NOT touch the high of Wave 1 again. This means we see a confirmed MOTIVE-WAVE indicating an uptrend should tend to continue. The corrective Wave headed down to the 1.272 Extension, which is a very common level. The second picture indicates optimism of the market: The active trendchannel was very dominant and predimonated over the market-players behaivor. But since the strong sell-off down to the corrections low @ 83,29 $ we`ve seen two attempts to break out of this channel. The first one failed @ the 100 M/A (purple) which was obviously the target of the bulls which this impulse. The market smelled a chance and didn`t hesitate to push the price out of this channel again. the correction was very strong because the price danced around the resistance of the channel. THE NEXT PUMP got confirmed by a consolidation.. and not as ususal.. a hard dump! The 50 M/A and 1 00 M/A are about cross and care getting in touch for the first time since July 2018! THIS IS a very crucial moment for ETH and it`s future because the next move could be the the path we choose to go! Mac-D: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- During the correction the MAC-D used to bounce of the ZERO aka TRIGGERLINE and refuse to get above it. Since the first attempt to break out of the channel, we`ve seen that the market is not wolling to drop significantly below it again and flucuates around it. The BULLISH divergence indicates higher LOWS while the price-action indicates lower lows and looks likea triangle with the first attempt to break out. The classic retest should be the confirmation of this upcoming impulse! If we violate the MA-Comb, bounce of the triggerline of the MAC-D and and create a new higher highit will be time TO BUY ETHEREUM! Misspelling? Sorry guys.. I`m lazy! ;-D ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me. Any questions? PM me. :-)
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by Trading2ez
4
BTC - Possible Future Price Action?Hello, fellow crypto enthusiasts! Are you still out there? Of course, you are, you are not going to let a 40% to 50% dump in the price of cryptos scare you off! Having survived this bear market will only serve to make you stronger in the future. I am once again going out on a limb here to speculate about the possible future price action for Bitcoin. The last couple of weeks have been pretty rough with Bitcoin finally breaking through the 2018 low of $5755 (Bitfinex). Not only did it break the 2018 low Bitcoin also blew right through $5000 with relative ease and then eventually the $4000 level failed also. So, I feel that the old support zone was so strong and held for so long that I believe Bitcoin at some point in the near future will rise up and re-test that zone which now will act as resistance. I see this zone as running from the old 2018 low of $5755 up to about the $6400 level. My personal feeling is that this re-test will fail and the price of Bitcoin will once again fall into the $3000 to $4000 level. Having broken the 2018 low which held for so long I now feel that this will extend the bear market for many more months, possibly through the end of next year. Obviously, at some point, Bitcoin will find an ultimate bottom but how much lower will that be? I think that it is very possible that Bitcoin eventually could re-test the 2013 high of $1175. Having said all of that I want to reiterate that I still remain very bullish on cryptocurrencies long-term, we just have to withstand this bear market to see the rewards of the next bull market. I wish that was not the case and who knows I could be totally wrong and believe me nothing would make me happier but being realistic I feel that we have to be ready for more pain before things get ready. If we do indeed have many months to go before the next bull market, one positive aspect will be that it will give us plenty of time to accumulate our favorite cryptos or additional time to save up fiat to buy our favorite cryptos.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Bigsky_Crypto
3
The 2017 - 2018 Bitcoin Market CycleHello crypto enthusiasts, I appreciate you taking the time to check out my chart. This chart is a recreation of a chart I created back on March 31st, 2018. At the time the chart was included as an image in the analysis of another chart that I published. The chart I published was of the 2013 to 2015 Bitcoin market cycle, because I included the 2017 - 2018 chart as an image I didn't have the ability to auto update it so I am recreating it here so that in the future I will be able to update it. I also published a chart on Oct. 30th in which I speculated that maybe this market cycle was moving at an accelerated pace, twice as fast, when compared to the 2013 - 2015 market cycle. In my analysis, I made some assumptions, one of which was that Bitcoin had already bottomed. We now know that the assumption was wrong because of the sell-off on the 14th which set a new low for 2018. As I have said quite a few times in the past, I have no way of knowing when this correction will end or when a new bull market will begin. All I can do is analyze the price action and try to come up with different scenarios. I believe it is still possible for this boom and correction cycle to end up being much shorter than the 2013 to 2015 cycle which lasted about 2 years from the peak until the next bull market began. But it is also possible that it could still be many months before we see a new bull market. I still remain very bullish on the long-term future of cryptocurrencies and I continue to add to my portfolio on a regular basis but I also believe that we need to be prepared to wait quite a while longer before they enter a new bull market. I am not saying that there is any type of correlation between this market cycle and the 2013 - 2015 market cycle but I find it interesting watching this cycle play out and seeing how it will compare to the 2013 - 2015 market cycle when all is said and done. Here is a link to the chart I published on March 31st. Here is a link to the chart I published on Oct. 30th.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Bigsky_Crypto