BIIB bear trend breakout? BIIB has broken a long running bearish trend since Jan 2023
Entry @ 223
TP1 @ 255
SL @ 200
Fundamentally strong stock hence the far off Stop loss but still a 1:2 ratio risk reward
BIIB
Biogen Stock Surge 4.85% on Approval For ALS DrugBiogen ( NASDAQ:BIIB ) has received a significant boost with the Food and Drug Administration's accelerated approval for Qalsody, a drug aimed at treating ALS, a debilitating muscle-wasting disease. While the approval marks a significant milestone in Biogen's efforts to address critical medical needs, the company faces challenges amidst concerns over its earnings quality and ongoing transformations under new leadership.
Hope Amidst Challenges:
The FDA's accelerated approval for Qalsody represents a beacon of hope for ALS patients, offering a potential treatment for a devastating disease with limited therapeutic options. Biogen's collaboration with Ionis Pharmaceuticals underscores the importance of innovative partnerships in advancing medical research and addressing unmet medical needs. However, despite this positive development, Biogen's stock performance remains under pressure amidst broader market uncertainties and investor concerns.
Earnings Quality Debate:
Biogen's recent earnings report, while beating expectations, has sparked debate over the quality of its earnings performance. Analysts have raised questions about the sustainability of Biogen's growth trajectory under new CEO Christopher Viehbacher, citing ongoing transformations and challenges in key therapeutic areas. The company's stock reaction to the earnings beat reflects investor caution and underscores the need for clarity regarding Biogen's long-term strategic direction.
Strategic Initiatives and Pipeline Potential:
Biogen's strategic initiatives, including its Alzheimer's and depression treatment efforts, holds significant potential to drive future growth. The accelerated approval of Leqembi for Alzheimer's and the optimism surrounding zuranolone for depression underscore Biogen's commitment to addressing critical neurological disorders. However, challenges persist, particularly in the multiple sclerosis franchise, where competition and generic alternatives continue to impact sales.
Navigating Market Dynamics:
Biogen's resilience amidst market challenges hinges on its ability to effectively execute strategic initiatives, manage portfolio dynamics, and capitalize on emerging opportunities. The company's reaffirmed outlook for full-year sales, despite headwinds in certain therapeutic areas, reflects confidence in its pipeline potential and strategic resilience. As Biogen ( NASDAQ:BIIB ) charts its course forward, investor sentiment will likely be influenced by developments in key therapeutic programs, regulatory decisions, and market dynamics.
BIIB Overdue for Gap UpBIIB's at a support level, but it's also been gapping up significantly every 2-6 quarters for the past few years. Its last gap was exactly a year ago, so it's overdue for a gap up. It's also within a month of earnings, so management is likely keen on pushing for newsworthy developments. I'll be rolling far OTM calls every week until earnings given the upside for such a gap.
$BIIB: Monster trade, brace yourselvesBiogen has a monster trade brewing here, can't afford to miss this trade. I've been trading it actively since they received FDA approval for their Alzheimer's drug a while back.
The current setup looks very strong and implies a massive uptrend can start from right here.
Best of luck!
Ivan Labrie.
Biogen testing channel supportBiogen Inc. (BIIB) currently testing channel support, able to absorb weekly selling pressures.
From here, (BIIB) can recover and turn higher to channel resistance, eliciting gains of 20-25% over the following 2 - 3 months.
A settlement above this week’s high would accelerate this upward momentum.
Inversely, closing below this channel support would indicate losses of 20% over the following 2 - 3 months where (BIIB) can bottom out into Q4.
BIIB consolidation might get to end and a new move up possible.BIIB shares might the consolidation channel and prepare a move higher.
The reason would be that the market discounts the potential sales CAGR for Alzheimer's drugs, reimbursements being an issue.
If the problem gets solved, BIIB gets a clear path towards higher valuation.
Alzheimer's drug, from $BIIB and EisaiAccording to MarketWatch, The FDA approved the
Alzheimer's drug Legembi from
Eisai and Biogen
A quick look at the daily charts for $BIIB shows that it's already trading on or above major moving averages (ie. 9,21,50 SMA's). Also, seeing as this is a nice, green day for the SPY and BIIB has been beaten down recently, it's a nice long option for medium term traders and investors in general.
If I were to go long, a nice R:R profit target would be the top of the Bollinger bands with a stop loss below the "fast" moving average in use.
Good luck.
Biogen BIIB options ahead of earningsLooking at the options chain today, i would buy the $255 calls with
2022-9-16 expiration date for about
$3.40 premium.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
BIIB - Trend Line (Bull) ViewMy recent post was a bearish view for BIIB, it included some Fibonacci Circles and I am questioning my ability to plot these.
So I have posted a much simpler chart that shows a dominant trend line in green that should be maintained
Once the descending channel reaches this level price should move upwards.
Here is the bear view
BIIB - Bear SituationRepeating structure in green rectangle
Continuing the up channel
Red horizontals are the very similar points just on different magnitudes
It's a small trendline break but I'll take it.I took a small CALL option position this morning. Got the 5/13 $8 calls for $1.20. Now $1.65.
BIIB and PFE both report in the morning.
Biotech in bearish trend50sma has been an important moving average for this ETF.
We see 3 consecutive tests of the 50sma as resistance and a bounce lower.
As we see lower highs and lower lows, the bearish trend is confirmed.
I expect we fail again and test the blue line ($144.5).
$BIIB: Update, get long!I think it warrants making a new publication here, $BIIB has flashed a buy signal with tremendously good reward to risk, as it can resume the long term trend that can take it over $1600-2600 over time. Phase 3 clinical trials have gone really well for their Alzheimer's treatment 'Aduhelm', putting it in line with results obtained by $LLY's drug 'Donanemab'. I was long $LLY and have been trading in and out of $BIIB trying to time the end of the long slide since the FDA approval news came out. I think the time is now, to get in and sit tight. I've banked my $LLY exposure, but both companies will likely do well with their Alzheimer's treatments going forward and have solid trends, but the reward to risk favors $BIIB, so I'm only long Biogen currently.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan.
BIIB: Biogen, low risk long term buyReward to risk long term in $BIIB is very attractive here. I've gone long via a calendar spread before the latest FDA approval news, which turned out like a good long position when Biogen's Alzheimer's drug Aduhelm received accelerated approval. Following this, related companies which also have Alzheimer's drugs pending approval (like $LLY) received a dramatic boost. In the case of $LLY, their drug was approved as well a few days later. Both charts are very strong in the long term, showing signs of yearly uptrends present, indicating a multi year rally in these stocks is possible.
Accelerated approval means that the FDA approves the drug due to the possibility that it may provide therapeutic benefit to patients even though there is some uncertainty about the drug’s clinical benefit.
Aduhelm is the first therapy approved for Alzheimer’s disease that is directed at the underlying pathology itself (the presence of amyloid beta plaques in the brain). The clinical trials were the first to show that a reduction in these plaques is expected to lead to a reduction in the clinical decline of this form of dementia.
There is a lot of debate regarding the drug's price tag, as well as the clinical benefit it may or not provide, but I think it's a reasonable bet to make here, from a technical and fundamental standpoint. Valuation wise, the company has very low long term debt to equity, high free cash flow yield and a high earnings yield (trailing twelve months), earnings growth has been negative in the last year, but positive in the previous five years. There is a lot at stake with Aduhelm's potential success, so, don't risk more than you can afford to lose, consider that the yearly uptrend is invalid if price moves below 243.58 to define your position sizing based on your risk appetite.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
$BIIB Launches on aducanumab ApprovalBIIB blasted through long-term resistance on the huge news of the company's approval for a first-of-its-kind Alzheimer's treatment. This is a multi-billion-dollar market with effectively no competition.
BIIB: Biogen triangle breakoutBIIB has broken out of triangle triangle formation on strong signals from super guppy and MACD indicators. I expect this breakout to continue on both its solid technical's as well as the strong sentiment in regards to BIIB's potential ceiling. Two crucial stories to watch going forward are the potential appeals court reversal related to their multiple sclerosis drug patent and more importantly, the potential approval of their experimental Alzheimer's drug. I believe there is a good opportunity in the short-term with strong risk/reward. I anticipate some quick upside in the short term (5-10%) and will be happy to take profits. The longer-term picture for Biogen certainly has a ton of upside potential however, there is very significant risk. Biogen has a lot riding on the 2 drugs mentioned above and the ruling made on them has the potential to make or break the company's future. I believe once a decision is passed down we will either see price rapidly surge to $400+ or rapidly fall to $175-$220 depending on the outcome.
Biogen going down. NASADAQ:BIIBI don't see any impulse patterns here. There is an Elliott triangle that just happened, but this is a part of a correction, hence bearish. Goaling for the floor first in blue, then the two fib targets after that if there is more gas for the downward move. NFA
Biogen - Pivot Point - Beware EarningsHey traders, I was searching for potential pivot points for long call opportunities and I came across Biogen NASDAQ:BIIB and thought to myself "Hey! This looks good!"... that is until I saw they're expected to report earnings tomorrow. But otherwise, take a look at the chart above. One thing you will see...is that its been trading within a range. I highlighted this range on the chart using the labels Support and Resistance. The other thing to notice is where the stock price is relative to the Bollinger Bands. If earnings wasn't tomorrow, I would be more inclined to purchase a call here because the stock price is holding at the lower BollingerBand at 2 standard deviations. Stock price has a tendency to move back towards the 8 EMA on the daily chart above, so if we are playing the odds, this trade would be in favor to the upside. But this trade is invalidated since we have a major news event happening tomorrow.
So... let's see what happens. In my experience, if a stock breaches the lower Bollinger Band after an earnings report, it's no longer a valid long call trade. In the past, I have made the mistake in thinking with 2 standard deviations... I have a 95% chance that price will fall back within the BollingerBands within the lifespan of the trade. But often what ends up happening is the stock price moves in a "L shaped" pattern where the vertical end of the "L" is the drop after the major news event and the horizontal side of the "L" is the sideways price action the stock experiences for days ( sometimes weeks ) following the news event.
In this situation, the stock usually comes back within the 2 standard deviation range... but not until Theta decay has eaten up your call option's premium. So even if you eventually get the direction right, time will not be kind to your long call position. This is where applying the Put Credit Spread strategy comes in handy. With Put Credit Spreads, you are an option seller, rather than an option buyer. Time will erode the premiums of the spread making it cheaper to buy back later. What's even better, is if the stock moves up... then the Delta will negatively affect the puts making them cheaper to buy back.
Anyways, let's follow Biogen tomorrow and see if they beat or miss earnings and how the stock price reacts to the news. If it heads lower, we'll follow up in next weeks idea regarding the put credit spread setup.
