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Bill Williams Indicators

BTC Expanding Triangle Whipsaw Pattern (Elliott Wave)The last few weeks on BTC have formed a huge whipsaw pattern, constantly faking out in each direction. This is common for an expanding triangle pattern, and this current triangle also has very good time relations (and lack of fibonacci price relations). Wave-e also broke beyond the a-c trendline as is standard for expanding triangles. Last week I said that we'd get one final run up to the highs and BTC would double top while some alts made new all time highs. This is exactly what has happened, and based on this expanding pattern, as well as the longer-term chart that I published in December, I believe the top is in for the rest of the year. The next move down should be extremely large and violent, probably ending somewhere around $30k towards the middle of this year. The b-wave recovery after that will likely be slow and followed by another c-wave before we finally end this major correction sometime in 2026.
Short
by Intuit
1
ETH Zigzag Short Setup (Elliott Wave)ETH has created a perfect zigzag pattern, with a triangle for wave-B. Since wave-B is a limiting contracting triangle, wave-C should relate to wave-a of B by 100% in price, and end around the apex of the triangle timewise. Both of these requirements have been perfectly fulfilled, and the standard time target of (a+b)/2=c is also satisfied. On top of this wave pattern, we also have the first wiseman forming on the 4hr, as well as momentum divergences on multiple shorter-term charts. At the higher timeframes, ETH and BTC have both hit long-term fibonacci targets, time targets, monthly/weekly/daily wisemen, and momentum divergences. All of these long-term and short-term signals and wave patterns are indicating a potential long-term top, and at the least a significant pull back to new lows. The 4hr wisemen on ETH gives us a good way to minimize our risk on this trade by putting our stops at today's highs. From here, we should quickly retrace all of wave-C faster than it was formed to get confirmation that the zigzag is over. After we have confirmation, we can be very confident that we are heading to new lows and will probably end this wave somewhere around $3,090 to $2,770
Short
by Intuit
1
TLRY Long-term Bottom SignalsTLRY has created several long-term bottom signals including the first wiseman on the monthly and weekly charts. This combined with momentum divergences and the 161.8% (a+b) time relation all indicate a potential long-term reversal is starting now. This also fits with my bearish stock market forecast because for the last couple of years there's been an inverse correlation between the index and cannabis stocks. I also believe we could see an old switcheroo here, cannabis stocks dumped and crypto pumped post-election in the short-term, now we could see the opposite in the long-term where we see a long-term cannabis bull market and a long-term crypto bear market. There's a high probability Trump does not create a strategic bitcoin reserve in the first 100 days, on Polymarket the odds are >70% that this does not happen. It's also very likely most state-level bills will fail initially. While some reserves could eventually happen it will likely be in 1-2 years when prices are much lower and the hype has died down. Meanwhile, the HHS has already recommended and the DEA has already begun the process of rescheduling cannabis to Schedule 3 several months ago, and Chris Christie has said Trump will completely deschedule cannabis under his administration, ultimately making it fully legalized. In my opinion, everyone is underpricing this likely future, while simultaneously overpricing the future where Trump actually kept his promises about crypto in the first 100 days. I do not think Cannabis stocks will ever be this undervalued again, especially after legalization happens, so now is probably the best time to be accumulating these stocks for the long-term while they're super undervalued.
NASDAQ:TLRYLong
by Intuit
3
BTC Long-Term Top Signals, Potentially Headed to $32k in 2026Bitcoin is currently exhibiting several long-term top signals, some of which stretch all the way back to 2019. Those include: Wave-D = (C+B)/2 in Time Wave-D = 0.618(B) in Price Waves a, b, c, f, and g are all time-similar forming a perfect diametric First Wiseman signals on Weekly, Monthly charts All three wisemen on Daily charts HUGE long-term momentum divergences on all long-term charts Manic market sentiment following Trump's promises and $100k prices (which he may not keep) I believe a deep, long-term bear market is highly likely from this point. It also appears that the stock market could be falling into a bear market as well. The invalidation for this forecast will be for BTC to make new all time highs. If we can reverse the wisemen signals and long-term time/price targets that have formed that would be extremely bullish, but at the moment that is seeming less and less likely. For now the probabilities are favoring major downside in crypto, stocks, and real estate. There's also other possible targets. While $32k in 2 years is close to the worst case scenario, a drop lasting only a few months and forming a smaller x-wave or something else is also possible. It will depend ultimately how this develops. To confirm a long-term bear market we should hit around $62k by end of Q1. If it takes longer than that, it's possible the bear market won't be as big. Right now, the important thing is that the market is at a clear fork in the road. If it can't push new all time highs then the signals clearly say that we are headed down from here based on the momentum, price action, sentiment and wave counts. How far down exactly can be determined in the future when there's more information.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Intuit
3
MicroStrategy Long-Term Top Based on Perfect Fib RatiosSeveral long-term signals on Bitcoin are indicating a potential top including long-term price and time ratios, long-term momentum indicators, as well as wisemen on weekly and daily charts. This made me look more closely at MSTR, which is also exhibiting significant signs of a potential top. Some of these on this weekly chart include: Larger Degree (red boxes) Wave-C = 161.8%(B) in price Wave-C = 138.2%(A) in price wave-C = 100%(B) in time wave-A = 25%(B+C) in time Smaller Degree (green boxes) Wave-c = 50%(a+b) in time wave-c = wave-a in price Complex structure potentially ending with a zigzag Based on all these factors, the chances of a top here are high. However, if we do make new all time highs it would be a good idea to reverse and go long crypto again, as it would likely mean that all these signals are just a MASSIVE bear trap and there could be significant upside left. For now, as long as we remain directly under these long-term price/time targets on both BTC and MSTR, combined with long-term sell signals, the chances of a trend reversal in crypto is high. There's also significant bearishness in virtually all global asset markets right now, which could in a worst case scenario last for 1-2 years, and possibly be worse than 2022. It is difficult to say at this point what the trigger for the coming crash could be, possible chaos surrounding the transition to a new administration, high rates putting pressure on commercial real estate and regional banks, some high profile financial failures, a major war, or something else that i can't predict
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by Intuit
TRX Perfect Bat Harmonic, Complex Correction, Double BottomTRX has created several simultaneous buy signals here. First we have the perfect bat harmonic, then we have wisemen on multiple timeframes, in a grey zone on the 4hr, perfect double bottom breaking all lows expect the final low, short-term momentum divergences, and a solid diametric count with at least 5 of 7 waves being time similar. All of these signs are pointing to a bottom forming right now, meaning the lows should not be violated and TRX will go to all time highs from here. If we do make new lows it is probably a good idea to stop and reverse, and look for a new potential bottom. For now, all signs are pointing up, especially the longer-term count which has us beginning a supercycle this quarter.
CRYPTO:TRXUSDLong
by Intuit
2
BTC Dominance Topping Out, Going to All Time LowsBTC Dominance appears to be in a potential 7 year flat pattern. This coincides with the end of 7 year bear supercycle on alt/USD and alt/BTC pairs. The end of the flat pattern is evidenced by wave-c relating to wave-a by 61.8% in price and relating to waves (a+b)/2 in time (yellow boxes). The false break out from the orange trendline, as well as the wisemen on monthly, weekly, daily, etc charts, and the bearish momentum divergences, are all further evidence that dominance has topped. From here, it looks like BTC dominance is going to retest the lows, and considering the likelihood of the end of a 7 year bear supercycle on alts, and the beginning of a new alt season, BTC's dominance could fall to as low as 12%. Fundamentally, little has changed about BTC over the years. While some activity can be moved to layer 2s, the main BTC blockchain is still slow and inefficient, with only 7 TPS most people will not be able to afford to transact on Bitcoin. This will make retail traders and economic activity move to layer 2s and other chains. One chain which will capture a large share of economic activity from Bitcoin is TRON. It has already captured the largest share of USDT, leading to high TRX burn rates. As Bitcoin's fees begin to skyrocket again following skyrocketing Bitcoin network activity, more of Bitcoin's activity will move to wrapped BTC on chains like TRON which are fast, extremely liquid, low fees, and accepted in most places. While this will allow everybody to afford to transact with Bitcoin, it will also cannibalize Bitcoin's dominance. Chains that are similar to TRON which can capture a large share of Bitcoin's economic activity by acting as Bitcoin's layer 2, and in doing so are burning their native token for fees, are going to see their circulating supplies drop very quickly because of money earned and burned from fees, and their prices increase much faster than BTC. It would not surprise me to one day see BTC completely lose it's dominance as the largest crypto to coins which have better fundamentals, especially where they have very high fee revenue and burn rates like TRX, and are significantly faster, more scalable, and turing complete. Either way, I don't think we will ever see BTC's dominance this high again, especially as regulations in the US and around the world begin to favor BTC less and create a fair playing field with other cryptocurrencies.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DShort
by Intuit
SMCI Battered Stock SyndromeI've seen this stock in the news a lot about some accounting irregularities (which have apparently existed for a long time with this company). Last time these allegations surfaced was August 2020 (stock is up 1000% since then). Anyway, wisemen on the daily, momentum divergences and harmonics look bullish here, so I'll take a small pre-earnings gamble on some otm december calls. Probably due for a relief rally right now and a strong earnings report after the close today could help close the gap around $50.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by Intuit
2
EUR/JPY: Tight range when other EUR-pairs are weak. HmmmDo you trade A) Before the breakout for a better price OR B) After the breakout for confirmation ? We usually prefer B) But it helps to think through some scenarios that could happen beforehand Looking at EUR/JPY - see how it is trading in a tight range? Well other EUR pairs like EUR/USD have been falling. That shows relative strength . Or put another way - the yen is relatively weak. The price could just break straight to the topside - or it could first try to break lower in a fakeout - before breaking to the topisde. If the latter does happen - it will be one of those occations we could trade before the =breakout ;) What do you think happens? Maybe the trend turns lower - and neither scenario above is right - could easily be.
Short
by jasperlawler
How to Use Trading Zones in CryptoHello, Skyrexians! Last two articles were the deep dive into the Awesome Oscillator and Acceleration Deceleration indicators by Bill Williams. In conjunction with the fractals and the alligator these indicators are the powerful concept in cryptocurrency trading. It can significantly boost your cryptocurrency trading strategy, crypto trading algorithm or you can implement it into trading bot. Today we will expand this concept with the trading zones - the periods on the market with the bullish or bearish superiority. Trading zones is not the popular concept in comparison to Awesome Oscillator, that's why using it can give you a huge advantage in crypto trading because even top crypto traders don't use it in their trading routine. Let's go through its concept. Before start observing the trading zones concept we have to understand what are the Awesome Oscillator and Acceleration/Deceleration. Awesome oscillator is the approximation of the market's driving force. Usually it starts moving before the price if this is an impulsive wave. During corrections it can flash the false signals. Before the driving force starts moving the acceleration changes its direction. That's why combination of these indicators is so important. What is the trading zone? As you know from AO and AC descriptions they can have 2 conditions: increasing (greed bars) and decreasing (red bars). According to this we can define 3 marker conditions: Green zone. Both AO and AC have the increasing columns. This is the strong bullish phase. Only long trades are allowed. Red zone. Both AO and AC have the decreasing columns. This is the strong bearish phase. Only short trades are allowed. Gray zone. AO and AC have the different directions. No signals can be generated by this trading zone
Education
by Skyrexio
SUNCAT Triangle Ending, Going to $200M+ (Elliott Wave)SUNCAT is one of the blue chip memecoins on TRON, with a strong community, consistent volume, and stable price. It's currently sitting at around $10M market cap. From a wave perspective, SUNCAT has formed into a perfect Neowave contracting triangle. Wave-a is the largest and most violent wave Wave-b takes more time than wave-a and retraces more than 61.8% of wave-a Wave-c relates to waves a+b in time, and wave-a by ~61.8% in price Wave-d relates to waves b+c in time, and wave-b by ~61.8% in price Wave-e relates to waves (c+d)/2 in time, and wave-a by ~38.2% in price Channeling creates a clear contracting pattern Based on all these fibonacci price and time relations, and based on the longer-term chart it appears that we are ending this triangle now and preparing for a move towards at least $200M market cap assuming this next move up is similar in size to the last move up. If it is larger then it's possible that SUNCAT could go to SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:1B + market cap. Either way, it seems like SUNCAT will continue to be extremely profitable for holders in the near future.
Long
by Intuit
Minimum Target for TRX of 22 cents in September (Elliott Wave)TRX has formed into a running c-failure flat corrective pattern, with wave-c forming a very large 5th wave extension terminal impulse. Glenn Neely told me last week when working on this count that terminal impulse patterns often go on for longer and further than most people expect, and this occurred here because wave-c was much longer and larger than what would have otherwise been expected, such as the max time target of a+b, and the max price target of c=a both being exceeded (red boxes). We're also seeing a strong bounce now which is a probable sign of a bottom right as wave-5 is equal to wave-1+3 in price and wave-1+2+3+4 in time. All these signs are very very good that we are about to continue the larger break out that I have been talking about for several months! The minimum target of 22 cents comes from the strength exhibited by the c-failure flat pattern which implies we should see a move that is at least 161.8% of wave-1 (assuming it is wave-1 and not something else). It's also possible wave-1 and 2 are mislabeled and actually an even larger pattern is ending at wave-2. This would mean that we see a move which far exceeds 22 cents in September! This all coincides very well with the memecoin strategy being employed now by Justin Sun which will bring tons of marketing attention on TRON as traders continue to get rich from memecoins like they did with SUNDOG and SUNCAT. I've also launched my own memecoin on Sunpump called FEELS which I believe could be very successful in the future, and is backed by a diversified reserve of tron-based crypto assets and memecoins.
Long
by Intuit
1
Books on trading and Profitunity strategy by Bill WilliamsIn this article, I will share books that were useful for me in the process of studying trading and the Profitunity trading strategy by Bill Williams. Bill Williams "Trading Chaos 1 and 2" ♡ The first and third books by Bill Williams contain complete and up-to-date information on the Profitunity strategy. The second book "New Trading Dimensions" is intermediate and less relevant. The book Trading Chaos 1 includes trading psychology (an integral part of trading), the basics of understanding the markets, candlestick patterns (divergent bars and determining the trend based on a pair of bars, the market facilitation index, volume and squat bar), Elliott waves (characteristics, determining waves using the MACD 5/34/5 indicator, an analogue of the modern Awesome Oscillator, and the Fibonacci ratio), fractals, trading in waves (impulses 1-3-5 and ABC correction). And also very important topics — how to work with your internal structure and how our brain functions (Chapter 11). The book Trading Chaos 2 (co-authored by Bill Williams' daughter Justine Gregory) includes a description of the Alligator indicator in combination with the Awesome Oscillator, divergent bars and fractals. And also tools for working on yourself - morning pages (Chapter 13, from the book by Julia Cameron "The Artist's Way") and autogenic training for traders by Johannes Schultz (Appendix 3). Tom Hougaard "Best Loser Wins" ♡ The book greatly expands the perception of markets, the approach to trading and deeply describes the psychology of trading. The book was first published in 2022 and perfectly complements the books by Bill Williams. John J. Murphy "Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets" A basic book on classical (linear) technical analysis, which also contains up-to-date information on Elliott Wave Theory in addition to the corresponding section in the book by Bill Williams "Trading Chaos 1". Alexander Elder "Trading for a living" (How to Play and Win on the Stock Exchange) A book on the psychology of trading and classical chart analysis, includes a detailed description of popular indicators and a description of the basic strategy "Three Screens" (analysis of the chart on the senior and junior timeframes), as well as an important topic "Risk management". Steve Nison "Japanese Candlesticks" A basic book on classical candlestick (bar) analysis. Thomas DeMark "Technical Analysis - a new science" Constructing trend lines based on the support price minimums and maximums described in the book led me to search for an indicator that displays such bars, as a result, I first became acquainted with the Bill Williams Fractals indicator, even before I became acquainted with his strategy. Theodore Dreiser "The Financier" ☽ A novel published in 1912 based on the life story of the American millionaire Charles Yerkes (1837-1905). The book shows how the financial and economic environment surrounding the main character (Frank Cowperwood) already from childhood forms in him the psychology of a businessman and stock dealer... Robin Sharma "The 5 AM Club" ☆ This book is not about trading, but about healthy habits. But for me the book became useful, including in trading, because I made the following conclusion for myself - it is important to rest (take breaks) every day, and not only on weekends and vacations. And it is worth starting with the fact that after waking up there is free time (about 1 hour) before business activity begins, i.e. either wake up earlier, or move all things forward, so that you can start your day easily. And taking breaks in trading is very important, so I recommend paying attention, for example, to the algorithm for removing limitations using neurographics. (◉ ‿ ◉) There are many good books, as well as good strategies, but I am sure that only independent deep study, practice, good concentration and self-control will allow you to find your own understanding of the markets and your own approach to successful trading.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by grigorykov
Deep dive into Acceleration / Deceleration Indicator Hello, Skyrexians! Last time we discussed how you can use the Awesome Oscillator to create profitable crypto trading strategies and which type of signals it generates. Today we will deep dive into Acceleration/Deceleration (AC) the next Bill Williams indicator, which can also enhance your cryptocurrency trading strategy. This indicator also can be valuable not only for manual trades, but also for developing your crypto trading algorithm, crypto algo trading platform, crypto trading bot, ai trading bot or grid bot. The main thing is to understand what is the AC indicator and which signals it generate, which signals we shall use in crypto trading like top crypto traders. Let's go! What is Acceleration / Deceleration? The Acceleration/Deceleration Oscillator (AC) is a technical analysis indicator developed by Bill Williams, a notable trader and author known for his work in market psychology and trading systems. This indicator helps traders identify changes in market momentum and potential trend reversals. How the Acceleration/Deceleration (AC) Indicator Works? The AC indicator is based on the idea that the momentum of the market (speed of price movement) often changes before the price itself changes. By identifying these shifts in momentum early, traders can anticipate potential trend changes. The AC is derived from the Awesome Oscillator (AO), another indicator created by Bill Williams, which is the difference between a 34-period and a 5-period simple moving average of the median price (the average of high and low prices). The AC is calculated by subtracting a 5-period simple moving average of the AO from the AO itself. Mathematically, it can be represented as: AC = AO − SMA5(AO) Where AO is Awesome Oscillator (calculated as the difference between the 34-period SMA and the 5-period SMA of the median price). SMA5(AO) is 5-period simple moving average of the AO. Now let's consider which types of signals AC can generate.
Education
by Skyrexio
Deep dive into Awesome OscillatorsHello, Skyrexians! We continue our series of educational content. Today it's time to consider the Awesome Oscillator, the indicator introduced by Bill Williams in his book "Trading Chaos". It can be very useful in your crypto trading. A lot of crypto trading strategies use this indicator. You can combine it with other indicators to create your crypto trading algorithm, trading bot or manual cryptocurrency trading strategy. Most of top crypto traders and top crypto trading platforms use it in their automated crypto trading. If you will be aware you to trade using Awesome Oscillator will be able to enhance your automated trading bot, manual trading strategy or setup grid trading bot more effectively. We think there is enough arguments to learn how to use this indicator. Let's start our deep dive! What is Awesome Oscillator? The Awesome Oscillator (AO) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis to measure the strength and direction of a market trend. It was created by Bill Williams and is designed to help traders identify potential reversals or trend continuations. Key Features of the Awesome Oscillator: Momentum Measurement: The AO measures the difference between a short-term moving average and a long-term moving average, using midpoints of each candlestick rather than closing prices. This provides insights into the market's momentum. Histogram Representation: The indicator is typically displayed as a histogram, with bars oscillating above and below a zero line. Green bars represent increasing momentum (bullish), while red bars indicate decreasing momentum (bearish). The Awesome Oscillator is calculated using simple moving average(SMA) as follows: AO = SMA(5-period) − SMA(34-period) Now let's consider the signals which can be produced by Awesome Oscillator with the examples.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Skyrexio