Bill Williams Indicators
NZDUSD D (Chart Update): Yet another upside Breakout has failedNumerous times price tried to break out to the upside on the NZDUSD Daily. It has always failed. During the last week of trading the same has happened, price wasn't able to stay above the important resistance area (marked by fractals), instead it went right back into the balance zone. It's possible a new down fractal will form soon, that would be another selling opportunity.
NZDUSD: Daily possibly Ending CorrectionNZDUSD has been in correction on the weekly since August 2015 after a major downtrend unfolded until then. This correction did not run up, instead it moved sideways with the Momentum indicator crossing above 0 on the weekly (indicating a major correction.) The daily chart didn't prove to trade well while this correction has been going on, many breakouts fail in this market phase and the trend trader needs to stay away until the next possible breakout tirggering a new trend shows up.
This could be the case now, after we saw prices trying to breakout of the upper resistance of this weekly sidemove and failed two weeks ago, we saw increasing weakness coming into this market with a new fractal sell signal forming. If price hits the low of that fractal a short position would be triggered and new lows could be possibly. Let's see if that is the one already...
SPX500 4h: Divergence Indicating WeaknessThe SPX500 has been rising ever since the worst start of the year in history. This bullish movement could come to an end now as we don't only see a divergence and prices starting to trade inside of the balance zone on the daily chart.
This four hour chart shows price already tried to break through a fractal and is now sitting just on top of what looks like pretty strong support. As this market keeps trading below the balance zone an eventual break of support is possible, which would end the daily uptrend for now.
Introducing Don's "T R A D E - M A P" Approach: Part 3 Of 5, MOPart 3 of 5. The above chart is a 4 hour time period. The goal of this chart is to confirm, on a shorter term time basis, that the breakout uptrend in Altria Group is valid. Indeed it is. Once again, the elements of Don's "TRADE-MAP" approach are:
1. T : Time and space (Fractals); 2. R : Repeating Cycles; 3. A : Advancing Trend; 4. D : Declining Trend; 5. E : Energy in Phase Forces.
Now the letters in MAP:
6. M : Momentum and Velocity; 7. A : Analysis of Structure; 8. P : Price Performance. There you have it: Don's personal "TRADE-MAP".
One item I must mention. The ideas I present are from a lifetime of reading and listening to others. In other words, I do a lot of bench-marking. I combine what I think are the "best practices" and discipline myself to use them. The combined efforts of some really great technicians are in my work: Bill Williams, Justin Mamis, Jason Stapleton, John Murphy, John Bollinger, Charles-Dow, Robert Precther, Harold McKinley Gartley, Ralph Nelson Elliott, and others too numerous to honor. I do charting simply because I enjoy it. Yours for better trading, Don.
AUDCAD possibly about to break out to UpsideAfter a short breakout has failed on the higher timeframes in Sep 2015, an immediate reversal occured and this FX pair went all the way from 0,92 to 1,02. Ever since it hit that high it retraced, but never went as low as the previous low in Sep 2015. A possible trend continuation could follow if the indicated fractal buy signal is hit. It would mean the break of important resistance and therefore following the move further to the upside is a possiblity.
How I Trend Trade Using Fractals and Moving AveragesUP Fractal = Resistance, buy on breakout
DOWN Fractal = Support, sell on breakout
If Trend gets going, hold on to position until price closes above/below purple line.
Watch for divergences in Momentum indicator vs. price.
Watch for major and minor corrections that could indicate a new entry point or a slowing price.
After a trend is done, prices will always retrace back into the balance zone, marked by the three colored moving averages. As long as it is trading inside of it, stay out of the market.
Once a fractal up or down gets hit after price was breathing in the balance zone, put in a pending order and wait for whatever the market tells you.
Repeat.
Repeat.
Repeat.
Combination Ichimoku Cloud, Pattern, And Alligator View For IWMThe chart above is daily, and is a combination of the Ichimoku Cloud, Pattern Swing Trade, and Alligator systems. There is a bullish and bearish case for IWM. The pattern swing trade shows a bearish bat the the end of impulse leg D (Fibonacci .618). Yet, if you look to the far right on the chart (bright green up arrow), the Ichimoku Ki jun-Sen (baseline) just went positive, rising above the cloud. (This may not be a positive because this is a lagging indicator). The red dotted line is the teeth in the Alligator system, and this is flat, as is the solid red line above it (the conversion line in the Ichimoku Cloud system). The recent price action in IWM has traded below the Ichimoku Cloud conversion line 6 times in the past three weeks, which I view as a negative. The scattered up and down green/ red arrows are fractals (this system created by Bill Williams in 1995). A rule of thumb is "do not accept a buy fractal if it is below the alligator's teeth" (dotted red line), and "do not accept a sell fractal if it is above the alligator's teeth". There is a sell fractal just to the left of the bright green arrow at approximately $101 on the chart. The three indicators below the chart are divided: RSI (top) is overbought; Vortex (middle) slightly positive with green over red, but sagging; CCI (lower) extreme over-bought). I see the signs of IWM trend reversal (to the downside) developing. One other negative not on the chart shown, IWM is still under-performing the S&P 500. It is 14% off its high of $129.10. I do own RWM, the inverse of IWM, so we will see. I hope this has been informative and helpful. Yours for better trading, Don.
Short ETH/BTC due to failed breakoutWe couldn't break 300 and the reason is clear. Volume is low af.
If that was leg one of a new wave it was hella weak. Where are all the buyers at? Waiting or shorting.
The Eye of Sauron looks down upon us and forces us into the nether worlds of the 200 zone. When we reach that level buyers will rush like mad at those prices. then we get exhausted, but people saw what happened on the first leg and they want in on the party and so we get another drive, etc, etc. It's quite simple. But there are rules to these streets. One cannot simply call an irregular elliott wave retracement a new rally when it is no such thing at all.
EURUSD GOES UP
WE have a double top, cant cross the 0.168 fibo level and the alligator start to open up... BUY
EURUSD SHORTIntro
Its been a long time since i posted something here, i was under the impression that posting here was like a game of prediction, as if you can have bragging rights if your prediction went ok. But at the back of my mind if i where a good trader why would i post my trades here what will i get. if not for the feeling of self accomplishment. Sharing knowledge maybe!
Then i learned that the mere impulse of thinking as such, mixed my trade with emotion and clouds my thinking. I also learned that predicting what the market will do will not be good for my business, instead what i should learn is to know what the market wants to do and react on that accordingly.
After three years of trading im still a novice, it sad but the only way to address that is to read up on books, do research to make my trades my own. For newbies like me i suggest you do the same thing and read up, there is no shortcut here there really is a learning curb, and there is no Holy Grail on trading.
Chart
On the screen are lots of indicators i mean lots. I know that my screen is cluttered but this is the result of all my studies and failure. Its a combination of "Harmonic Trading by Scoth Carney" "Fractal Trading by Bill Williams" "Triple Screen Trading by Alex Elder" Three of Moving Averages,MACD,Stochastic,Impulse. If you dont know these people you are not researching enough for your business. In summary Im short on this trade once the impulse system turns red. this not a recommendation for you to do the same.
Im still a novice at these considered a smuck in the trading world made considerable amount donations to the market but now standing my ground.
Learn your trades own your trades.
NZDUSD Could test 0.7175Trying to simplify trading and keeping it clean.
1. Price was trending lower in a falling equidistant channel. Support/Resistance identified at 0.7239 - 0.7175
2. To current lows, strong divergence to the AO
3. Y'day price was a doji so a possible bullish close today could further strengthen the bullish bias
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Trigger: Waiting for the AO to either cross the 0-line OR waiting for a classic saucer buy signal to initiate the trade. Initial stops at recent lows.
Risk: Initial risk at minor identified resistance of 0.6684. If this is cleared, then the trade should be quite a profitable one.
Pound Long1. Pound is a long on the weekly time frame
2. It has been making higher swing lows
3. It is in a squeeze situation on the Alley gator
4. Buy Stop @ 1.5691 Fractal
5. Set stop under blue alley-gator line when trade is filled.
6. This trade based on daily time frame
7. In buy zone on both oscillators
DAX30 - Ready, Set, Go?Dear Traders,
there has been happening a lot since my last DAX30 analysis eleven days ago. I have closed my short positions with some profits and kept quite until the beginning of this week, waiting to bring my long trades into the race.
If you remember, I revised my initial expectation from 'call' to 'put' as I expected the correction not be finished - or better, it was just about to start. The situation changed a bit which meant the (blue) 4 wasn't complete at this stage and had to be fully developed before we could look at any DAX30 long ideas.
The Question Now Is
Was this correction enough to complete the (blue) 4? There is a good chance that this is the case as the (Elliot wave) fits perfectly - and so do the indicators. But, there is still enough room for the DAX30 to correct. If you remember, I was initially talking about the area around 11,500.
It's A Matter Of Sink Or Swim
To put it in a nutshell, the German DAX30 has a perfect chance to take it from here, marching up, direction 13,000. However, if the latest (yellow) 1 gets touched (~ 11,803) the bullish scenario is off the table - for now. Everything above that is perfectly fine.
Bottom Line
In terms of trading this is a no-brainer. The chance/risk ratio is outstanding, if you are looking for 11,800 as a potential SL and 13,200 for a target.
I take the risk and give it a shot. Therefore I have opened a long position in all my public and private accounts.
Godspeed!
WTI CRUDE OIL - It's Just A CorrectionDear traders,
the most of us were hoping the oil price would drop forever, well at least those of us who drive a car or have an oil based central heating. But as the commodity market is no exception and no one-way system it had to stop at one point. So it did. The oil price is rising again and the question now is: Was that it? No more cheap fuel at the gas station?
The Answer Is No
At least not for the next couple of weeks. The price has to recover from its huge drop of the past few months. This massive drop is considered to be a (blue) wave 3 - the longest wave of all five of an impulse. However, as we all know four follows a three and the 4 is a correction move, before the initial (trend) move continues with the final 5.
To Make A Long Story Short
The current correction can last a few days or even weeks. A sensible target area for the (blue) 4 would be between $60 - $70a barrel.
However, the overlying trend is still strong bearish, so it is just a matter of time until the price turns soutwards for the final wave 5. Hence, you will be able to go to the gas station with a smile once again.
Information
I have opened long positions on WTI Crude Oil on all my public accounts, as well as a Brent Oil long position in my private account.
Cheers!
DAX30 - The Situation Has Changed A BitDear traders,
if you follow my analyses and my social media channels regularly you know that I was talking about two scenarios regarding the DAX30 since the (blue) four was seemed to be completed:
1) We stick to the plan and finish the job without any detour. At this stage I was talking about 12,300 as a milestone - which I finally got. I closed all my long positions, waiting for something to happen as it still wasn't enough to be a (blue) 5 but the market seemed to be wobbly on its feet. So I had a few options on the table and thought a stretched (blue) 3 may be one of them - obviously I was wrong but that brings me to my second scenario which is, at this stage, more likely;
2) We take a detour below 12,000 as I mentioned on Facebook a few days ago. Strictly speaking, it can actually take us anywhere between 11,500 and 11,200. Anyway, in this case the (blue) 4 was not complete but is now in the making! This scenario makes total sense and wouldn't even harm the overlying, bullish trend of the DAX30. It's the long overdue correction in a very overheated market.
Being Short In A Bullmarket
The bottom line is that the market is, overall, still bullish even if we go to the maximum of this correction which would be in the region of 11,200.
However, I took my chances and opened a short position yesterday in my Alvanda Mercury Account - and only in this account as this trade is counter-trend and therefore even more risky.
My Conclusion
This correction does the market more good than bad. My target (for the blue 5) still stands: 13,200.
Cheers!
DAX30 - Where are we at?The last few weeks went like a clockwork. Basically every target zone got hit, every support held and the price action matched perfectly into the overall image of my Analysis.
Now, since we have reached an ATH (all-time-high) at ~12.222 the price consolidated - which again - fit perfectly into my Elliot Wave count, as a small correction was overdue. On this note please don't forget that an overheated market is not automatically an occasion to sell!
So what do I expect to happen? Basically there are two scenarios from which I think one is more realistic than the other:
1. A-B-C correction is finished
In this case the DAX30 will break out of the short-term negative trend (red line) and continue it's ride direction North very soon. From there we, once again, go into a 1-2-3-4-5 count which will probably end at around 12.300/20.
As the indicators back this theory I think this is the more likely event to happen.
2. A-B-C is not finished, YET
In this scenario we will have to face a lower low which can be projected near to the last 4 (blue 4). A correction of this extent would not harm the still bullish environment in the DAX30.
Bottom line
I currently have a long position open in most of my accounts, aiming for the 12.300 level.
Bitcoin forming horizontal triangle? (Elliott Wave Analysis)The best advice I could ever give anyone about the market is to "Want What the Market Wants." Do not want what you want , that will produce anxiety and doubt. Align your personal beliefs with that of the market and then trading will flow like a calm river of success.
So that raises the question: What does the market want? On a weekly timeframe, the market has been trending down for some time now, and my indicators are still saying the weekly trend is DOWN. Solidified by the fact that we failed to break the weekly up fractal at 310, which would have changed the weekly trend from DOWN to UP. Bearing in mind the larger trend, we come to the 12H chart:
On this chart, I have labeled what I believe to be the most sensible Elliott Wave count that I came up with, which is a bearish horizontal triangle. Here are a couple of reasons why this count makes the most sense to me:
Wave A is most likely a three
Wave C momentum is relatively weak compared to Wave A
Wave A fractal top is still in-tact.
Fibonacci Time and Price targets are within normal guidelines for Waves A, B, & C
The predictive targets for triangles are relatively hard to develop, however, on my chart I have made an attempt at predicting the end of Wave c of D and wave E. Wave E in particular is very difficult to target, however, once it is completed we will definitely get a major swing down into the 100s or possibly double digits. I have labeled on my chart with green, yellow, and red dashed lines possible major support levels. Which one we will stop at I am uncertain of until we are closer to that point. However, there is a high probability we will stop at or near one of those lines based on Fib extension targets.
Once this chart is resolved we could end up getting another one of Bitcoin's famous Moons™ I think this is actually more likely to be the final doom that I mentioned in my first chart. My time-targets for the end of the major cycle degree Wave 4 start around April 20th, that doesn't necessarily mean that is when we are going to begin the major uptrend, but it is likely that once we've gone past that date that bitcoin will be ready for the next major cycle Wave 5, which will happen sometime before the end of the time target in August. My guess is that we start the next Moon™ in June.
Important Note: This chart is INVALID if we break 294 and particularly 310.
DAX Completes Wave Early And Starts ABC CorrectionThe day before yesterday, on Sunday, I have posted my latest analysis about the DAX30 (GER30) index, talking about the current waves 4 and 5 (green) and a possible target at 11.701.
The expected wave 4 (green) was pretty much spot on, the wave 5 wasn't really but I managed to detect the early completion before it was too late!
Unfortunately the wave has been completed early yesterday with a high at 11.606 which led me to close all existing DAX30 long positions in all my accounts with some profit.
So What's Next?
It pretty much looks like that the index has started its a-b-c correction, which could easily bring us down to 11.200 (former wave 4). However, I will not trade this correction setup but wait it to be completed and look for new long entries.
General speaking the correction actually comes handy and fits into the big picture. The Dow Jones was already struggeling with its high-rising and didn't give the DAX much space to the top. Say what you want but they are 'brothers' and generally head into the same direction.
Anyway, I keep my hands still on this one until the correction is finished.
GER30 about to complete 5-3-3 Wave
Trend is still strong bullish , looking at Ichimoku and Alligator. Setup is clear as well as the big picture. Red wave 4 is definitely complete, so we are working on a completion of red5-blue3-red3.
Target zone can be defined between 11.560 and 11.575.
Note: I bought Ger30 in all of my accounts.
BTC ELLIOT WAVE: BIG PICTURE & COUNTING GUIDEThere's a lot of confusion in Bitcoin right now, but the reality is simple: there was a big Elliot wave downward, and now we're in the corrective phase of that wave.
The Elliot wave is not a model or a tool -- it's a psychological phenomenon. It's the product of the behavior of a population of people reacting to an event (or series) and its unfolding. Therefore, it's the way markets move. It's the assertion that markets are moderately predictable because markets are made up of people, and people are predictable. (Events are generally not predictable, however!) It asserts that the market isn't about to move out of step -- an overnight drop to $175 -- unless a major new event occurs.
The following chart is by request. It shows the basic wave count of the major move since August from $620~.
I've used the tools developed by Bill Williams (New Trading Dimensions, Trading Chaos 1&2) to give a basic demonstration of how to count the wave. His methods and tools are the "training wheels" version of wave counting. The main two tools used are THE ALLIGATOR and the AWESOME OSCILLATOR.
TYPO: First five WAVES finished at red-line cross (3 impulse, 2 corrective)
BOOKS: The Wave Principle (Frost & Pretcher), Trading Chaos (both editions--which are very different) (Bill Williams), New Trading Dimensions (Bill Williams)
First sell Fractal Showing Daily SPYMarket has been whipsaw however we now have a sell stop
fractal setup on the daily SPY. Another area of entry would be up
against the Gators teeth redline with a stop at the jawline blue,
There is buy pressure currently and I see to much whipsaw without
waiting for that sell fractal.
Saddle point on GOLDAccording to Bill Williams trading system, there is a saddle point on this commodity,
alligator sleeping,
AO around zero
and price in the alligator mouth.
Buy-stop order on up fractal an Sell-stop order on down fractal,
