Biogen Stock Surge 4.85% on Approval For ALS DrugBiogen ( NASDAQ:BIIB ) has received a significant boost with the Food and Drug Administration's accelerated approval for Qalsody, a drug aimed at treating ALS, a debilitating muscle-wasting disease. While the approval marks a significant milestone in Biogen's efforts to address critical medical needs, the company faces challenges amidst concerns over its earnings quality and ongoing transformations under new leadership.
Hope Amidst Challenges:
The FDA's accelerated approval for Qalsody represents a beacon of hope for ALS patients, offering a potential treatment for a devastating disease with limited therapeutic options. Biogen's collaboration with Ionis Pharmaceuticals underscores the importance of innovative partnerships in advancing medical research and addressing unmet medical needs. However, despite this positive development, Biogen's stock performance remains under pressure amidst broader market uncertainties and investor concerns.
Earnings Quality Debate:
Biogen's recent earnings report, while beating expectations, has sparked debate over the quality of its earnings performance. Analysts have raised questions about the sustainability of Biogen's growth trajectory under new CEO Christopher Viehbacher, citing ongoing transformations and challenges in key therapeutic areas. The company's stock reaction to the earnings beat reflects investor caution and underscores the need for clarity regarding Biogen's long-term strategic direction.
Strategic Initiatives and Pipeline Potential:
Biogen's strategic initiatives, including its Alzheimer's and depression treatment efforts, holds significant potential to drive future growth. The accelerated approval of Leqembi for Alzheimer's and the optimism surrounding zuranolone for depression underscore Biogen's commitment to addressing critical neurological disorders. However, challenges persist, particularly in the multiple sclerosis franchise, where competition and generic alternatives continue to impact sales.
Navigating Market Dynamics:
Biogen's resilience amidst market challenges hinges on its ability to effectively execute strategic initiatives, manage portfolio dynamics, and capitalize on emerging opportunities. The company's reaffirmed outlook for full-year sales, despite headwinds in certain therapeutic areas, reflects confidence in its pipeline potential and strategic resilience. As Biogen ( NASDAQ:BIIB ) charts its course forward, investor sentiment will likely be influenced by developments in key therapeutic programs, regulatory decisions, and market dynamics.
Biogen
BIIB Overdue for Gap UpBIIB's at a support level, but it's also been gapping up significantly every 2-6 quarters for the past few years. Its last gap was exactly a year ago, so it's overdue for a gap up. It's also within a month of earnings, so management is likely keen on pushing for newsworthy developments. I'll be rolling far OTM calls every week until earnings given the upside for such a gap.
Biogen testing channel supportBiogen Inc. (BIIB) currently testing channel support, able to absorb weekly selling pressures.
From here, (BIIB) can recover and turn higher to channel resistance, eliciting gains of 20-25% over the following 2 - 3 months.
A settlement above this week’s high would accelerate this upward momentum.
Inversely, closing below this channel support would indicate losses of 20% over the following 2 - 3 months where (BIIB) can bottom out into Q4.
$BIIB: Update, get long!I think it warrants making a new publication here, $BIIB has flashed a buy signal with tremendously good reward to risk, as it can resume the long term trend that can take it over $1600-2600 over time. Phase 3 clinical trials have gone really well for their Alzheimer's treatment 'Aduhelm', putting it in line with results obtained by $LLY's drug 'Donanemab'. I was long $LLY and have been trading in and out of $BIIB trying to time the end of the long slide since the FDA approval news came out. I think the time is now, to get in and sit tight. I've banked my $LLY exposure, but both companies will likely do well with their Alzheimer's treatments going forward and have solid trends, but the reward to risk favors $BIIB, so I'm only long Biogen currently.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan.
BIIB: Biogen, low risk long term buyReward to risk long term in $BIIB is very attractive here. I've gone long via a calendar spread before the latest FDA approval news, which turned out like a good long position when Biogen's Alzheimer's drug Aduhelm received accelerated approval. Following this, related companies which also have Alzheimer's drugs pending approval (like $LLY) received a dramatic boost. In the case of $LLY, their drug was approved as well a few days later. Both charts are very strong in the long term, showing signs of yearly uptrends present, indicating a multi year rally in these stocks is possible.
Accelerated approval means that the FDA approves the drug due to the possibility that it may provide therapeutic benefit to patients even though there is some uncertainty about the drug’s clinical benefit.
Aduhelm is the first therapy approved for Alzheimer’s disease that is directed at the underlying pathology itself (the presence of amyloid beta plaques in the brain). The clinical trials were the first to show that a reduction in these plaques is expected to lead to a reduction in the clinical decline of this form of dementia.
There is a lot of debate regarding the drug's price tag, as well as the clinical benefit it may or not provide, but I think it's a reasonable bet to make here, from a technical and fundamental standpoint. Valuation wise, the company has very low long term debt to equity, high free cash flow yield and a high earnings yield (trailing twelve months), earnings growth has been negative in the last year, but positive in the previous five years. There is a lot at stake with Aduhelm's potential success, so, don't risk more than you can afford to lose, consider that the yearly uptrend is invalid if price moves below 243.58 to define your position sizing based on your risk appetite.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Teladoc Trade [TDOC]A staple of Cathie Wood's ARKK Invest fund, Teladoc looks to be winding up for a big move in the coming days after breaking the resistance of a supply line that has kept TDOC stagnant since the peak of its small rally in June.
Now we find it at a key support level just outside of the trendline and finding support on our 21 MA as well.
I am long on TDOC with a stop loss at $149.99. At this point, if the green horizontal line of support would be broken, the next level we want to look at for a long would be $146.84. However, a break and close of $146 would be a break into my no trade zone.
Bonus points for the asset if it can hold and maintain price action outside of our green, downward sloping line of resistance now hopefully flipped support.
BIIB: Biogen triangle breakoutBIIB has broken out of triangle triangle formation on strong signals from super guppy and MACD indicators. I expect this breakout to continue on both its solid technical's as well as the strong sentiment in regards to BIIB's potential ceiling. Two crucial stories to watch going forward are the potential appeals court reversal related to their multiple sclerosis drug patent and more importantly, the potential approval of their experimental Alzheimer's drug. I believe there is a good opportunity in the short-term with strong risk/reward. I anticipate some quick upside in the short term (5-10%) and will be happy to take profits. The longer-term picture for Biogen certainly has a ton of upside potential however, there is very significant risk. Biogen has a lot riding on the 2 drugs mentioned above and the ruling made on them has the potential to make or break the company's future. I believe once a decision is passed down we will either see price rapidly surge to $400+ or rapidly fall to $175-$220 depending on the outcome.
Solid Biosciences Announces $90 Million Private PlacementSolid Biosciences Announces $90 Million Private Placement
Solid Biosciences has entered into a securities purchase agreement with a select group of institutional investors and accredited investors for a $90 million private placement, which is expected to close on or about December 15, 2020, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.
The private placement includes new investors Suvretta Capital Management, LLC and Aspire Capital Fund, LLC and existing investors, including RA Capital Management, Perceptive Advisors, LLC, Bain Capital Life Sciences, EcoR1 Capital, LLC, Boxer Capital, and Ikarian Capital, LLC, as well as certain board members and executive officers.
In this private placement, the Company is selling 24,324,320 shares of common stock at a price of $3.70 per share.
The Company expects to use net proceeds from the private placement to fund research and development expenses, including the advancement of SGT-001, and for working capital and other general corporate purposes.
finance.yahoo.com
Biogen - Pivot Point - Beware EarningsHey traders, I was searching for potential pivot points for long call opportunities and I came across Biogen NASDAQ:BIIB and thought to myself "Hey! This looks good!"... that is until I saw they're expected to report earnings tomorrow. But otherwise, take a look at the chart above. One thing you will see...is that its been trading within a range. I highlighted this range on the chart using the labels Support and Resistance. The other thing to notice is where the stock price is relative to the Bollinger Bands. If earnings wasn't tomorrow, I would be more inclined to purchase a call here because the stock price is holding at the lower BollingerBand at 2 standard deviations. Stock price has a tendency to move back towards the 8 EMA on the daily chart above, so if we are playing the odds, this trade would be in favor to the upside. But this trade is invalidated since we have a major news event happening tomorrow.
So... let's see what happens. In my experience, if a stock breaches the lower Bollinger Band after an earnings report, it's no longer a valid long call trade. In the past, I have made the mistake in thinking with 2 standard deviations... I have a 95% chance that price will fall back within the BollingerBands within the lifespan of the trade. But often what ends up happening is the stock price moves in a "L shaped" pattern where the vertical end of the "L" is the drop after the major news event and the horizontal side of the "L" is the sideways price action the stock experiences for days ( sometimes weeks ) following the news event.
In this situation, the stock usually comes back within the 2 standard deviation range... but not until Theta decay has eaten up your call option's premium. So even if you eventually get the direction right, time will not be kind to your long call position. This is where applying the Put Credit Spread strategy comes in handy. With Put Credit Spreads, you are an option seller, rather than an option buyer. Time will erode the premiums of the spread making it cheaper to buy back later. What's even better, is if the stock moves up... then the Delta will negatively affect the puts making them cheaper to buy back.
Anyways, let's follow Biogen tomorrow and see if they beat or miss earnings and how the stock price reacts to the news. If it heads lower, we'll follow up in next weeks idea regarding the put credit spread setup.
Biogen: Sell opportunity.BIIB closed the week around +25% as news regarding a crucial patent ruling came out in the company's favor. With the company's earnings also higher than the forecast, investors seem upbeat with the stock's dynamics. Even though the 1D chart turned overbought (RSI = 75.219, MACD = 6.690), on the weekly chart there is still a clear Resistance Zone at 370.00 - 389.00 which has been holding since 2016.
The fact that the 1W candle pulled back making a big wick right after it entered the Resistance Zone, indicates that traders looked to book profits first. We see this as a strong sell opportunity towards at least the 267.00 Gap or even the 246.70 Symmetrical Support.
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Biogen: Further GrowthAfter the stock price touched new highs in October 2019 ( management confirmed rebooting of aducanumab's development), Biogen started a consolidation phase.
I plotted the Ichimoku Cloud on a daily chart, together with the Bollinger bands, to highlight the volatility and confirm the consolidation phase. Currently, from a technical point of view, we are in an exciting phase, testing the high line of the cloud with a bullish configuration, as also confirmed by the Stochastic.
The upward trend is also confirmed by fundamental analysis. Biogen counts on a strong collaboration with Roche in oncology, and on growing revenues thanks to Ocrevus (Multiple Sclerosis), as well as to a significant pipeline.
Furthermore, the complexity of Biogen's drugs makes the production of Biosimilars difficult.
Disclosure: My articles contain statements and projections based on assumptions on capital markets, and therefore inherently subject to numerous risks and uncertainties.
Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion or consult a financial advisor. Investing includes risks, including loss of principal.
I am not a financial advisor
Biogen Inc: Rare Long-Term Buy Opportunity.Biogen has lost over 30% of its value this month. Looking at the monthly chart, we have concluded that this is a rare investment opportunity as the current price is just above its 1M Support Zone.
Historically we see that such an aggressive sell off recently took place in 2015 - 2016 and again the stock managed to recover almost reaching the 390 Resistance again. This pattern may be similar to the one the long term (~10 year) consolidation that took place after the 2000 peak. The price then traded sideways roughly within 17.00 - 71.00, providing a buy opportunity on every major pull back.
We believe such an opportunity is presented now. Every dip near the 180 - 205 Support Zone can be bought with 350 - 390 as the Target Zone.
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Biogen Earnings Swing July 2018Biogen's (344.10 at close at the date of this writing) and Eisai's recent success with BAN24O1, an experimental medication for Alzheimer's which is currently in mid-stage clinical trials, in addition to a recent price target raise by Citi, and overall bullish analyst sentiment led to a rally between July 6-9, 2018.
Although the clinical trial's success was certainly reason for bullish sentiment, it ran too far too fast and indicators pointed towards to a sell off. I thus opened put options on July 9, expiring July 13 2018 (currently in the money). We are now only about two weeks away from Biogen's earning report. After studying historical data and charts, I've found that there is often a sell off prior to earnings OR there is a run up then a slight sell off right before the earnings date. I've annotated the chart with periods that indicate this.
In this case, I believe downward momentum will continue followed by a slight rally pre-earnings then a sell off. Opening JUL20 puts may be a smart move at this time.
In the long term, Biogen -0.21% is very scalable and overall is very promising. I agree with Citi's PT of 371.
www.wsj.com