Biogen trend line to watchBiogen today reported a huge earning beat, but disappointing guidance for the rest of the year. When you crunch the numbers, the midpoint of Biogen's guidance range for 2H 2020 came in slightly below Street consensus for both earnings and revenues.
Biogen has a reasonable, but not great valuation, with forward PEG of 3.78 and forward PSG of 1.27. It's currently in the lower half (26th percentile) of its three-year valuation range in terms of forward P/S and forward P/E. Biogen pays no dividend, and as a result the stock is more volatile than a dividend-paying stock would be.
Sentiment on Biogen improved quite a bit today. There have been no analyst upgrades yet, but options traders moved from net-bearish to net-bullish positioning for the short term, and from net-bearish to net-neutral positioning for the long term.
We're coming up on the strong season for pharmaceutical stocks in August. Biogen has only one phase 2 clinical trial result due in the second half of 2020 for its multiple sclerosis drug, but there are five results due in the first half of 2021, including a phase 3. These could prove to be major catalysts for the stock over the next year.
For the near term, watch for a possible trend line break as a sign that the stock will move higher.
Biotech
NSPR just getting started?Now buying my 3000 shares than seeing it pump to .61 (highest RH showed), was just luck with getting the news about Brazil approval NSPR product, yet looking at the chart begs to wonder is it over?
News
-CGuard got approval to be used in Brazil. I will post a DD at the end of this for NSPR, yet the consumer market of CGuard in Brazil can be up too 213 million citizens. The DD also suggest NSPR is looking for partners to China to distribute CGuard next.
-NSPR is looking for FDA IDE approval that it had to resubmit testing in May. If it gets approved it will get clinical trial testing to be able to be sold in the USA, which it already has approval for in Europe. It already has positive feedback from its test it submitted.
-Voting coming up to add more shares (double current shares). This is negative, yet with the price of a share atm I really don't think it will past, since they raised money already in early June.
-Insiders have be buying shares up to 4 million, which gives answers to the weird volume after the dump.
-Low float: tbh no clue what this means or what I'm looking at since I don't trade on what is low float. But alot of people say this stock volume should be above dollar with all the positive news.
TA
-Again volume is beyond head scratching, which reading the DD it makes since with 4million shares being bought up from CEO, Co, and other institutions.
-RSI is dead center
-MACD shows more momentum to the upside. Only thing that could affect it if tech stocks sell off again or a negative catalyst such as shares increase.
-now for the support and resitance lines short term and long term: support can be at the .50, .4922, and .4594. After that maybe new lows or a bear trap.
-Resistance is at .61/.5764, than next a bounce to $.7493-$.6491, $.9750, $1.1275, than all i got this a pump to $3.0811 (500%). One alysise has a $2 target, yet I don't see any activity since from $1.1275-$3.0811 was just a straight dump.
Final thoughts
I'll hold my 3k shares, since positive catalyist out number the negative one coming up. This company will have zero effect on its US and China relation, since its HQ is in Israel. With years of downside there is speculation what the overall outcome of this company, since it has been 15 years and its still around. I say its a hold and a buy between these ranges with .45 being buy, yet hold if it dips under that price.
DD
www.reddit.com
ABBV buy the dip ahead of pharma seasonAbbvie's volume has slackened somewhat after its recent triangle breakout, and it has broken its steep upward trendline. We may see a small correction late this month as Abbvie pulls back toward triangle top. However, if healthcare and pharmaceutical sector earnings continue to deliver this month (as they have so far), then Abbvie should get some buying volume along with the rest of the sector.
And then in August, a period of seasonal pharmaceutical strength begins. In The Stock Traders' Almanac, Jeffrey Hirsch makes an extensive study of seasonal stock market performance by sectors. His third-best-performing seasonal trade by average 10-year return (16.8%) is to go long biotech from early August to early March. I believe that's because this is the busy season for FDA drug application reviews.
The pharma sector does have an unusual level of political risk this year. Democrats have traditionally been hard on the pharma sector, and they look poised this year for a sweep. If the polls remain strongly blue, then we might see pharma underperform this year.
That said, I think a lot of the political risk is already priced in. Whereas most of the stocks I look at are at the very top of their 3-year valuation range in terms of forward earnings and sales, pharmaceutical companies like Abbvie and Merck are trading in the bottom quartile of their 3-year valuation range. With forward PEG ratio around 2, forward PSG ratio around 0.5, and a whopping 5% dividend, Abbvie looks really attractively valued. I've been doing a lot of deal-hunting lately, and this is one of the only stocks I've seen with both a strong growth story and a valuation I really like. The analysts and options traders like it too; Abbvie has a 9.9/10 Equity Starmine Summary Score, and near-dated options positions are heavily skewed toward calls.
$FIXX can rise in the next daysContextual immersion trading strategy idea.
Homology Medicines, Inc., a genetic medicine company, focuses on transforming the lives of patients suffering from rare genetic diseases.
The demand for shares of the company looks higher than the supply.
This and other conditions can cause a rise in the share price in the next days.
So I opened a long position from $16,45;
stop-loss — $15,75.
Information about take-profits will be later.
Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision.
Always do your own analysis before making deals. When you use any materials, do not rely on blind trust.
You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy.
If you like my content, you can subscribe to the news and receive my fresh ideas.
Thanks for being with me!
$CTIC can rise in the next daysContextual immersion trading strategy idea.
CTI BioPharma Corp., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and commercialization of novel targeted therapies for blood-related cancers.
The share prose rose after the company had announced enrollment of first patient in the COVID-19 PRE-VENT phase 3 clinical trial.
The demand for shares of the company still looks higher than the supply.
These and other conditions can cause a rise in the share price in the next days.
So I opened a long position from $1,38;
stop-loss — $1,25.
Information about take-profits will be later.
Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision.
Always do your own analysis before making deals. When you use any materials, do not rely on blind trust.
You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy.
If you like my content, you can subscribe to the news and receive my fresh ideas.
Thanks for being with me!
Biotech Channel Held 7/21/2020This is XBI at the 4 hour view. It seems that my biotech channel was a success. XBI tried to gap above the top of the channel. However, whenever the price goes above the long-term channel, it tends to get hammered right back in.
This may provide some safer short opportunities under these conditions.
1) XBI is at the top or above the top of the channel.
2) VIX is about found support.
3) After the hype of some vaccine news.
NSPR EMA and Volume rockingThe market atm is pretty boring. Bitcoin is doing nothing, stocks trading on news, Tesla mooning on earnings epectations with possibility of NASDAQ listing, cruise lines crap, and tech stocks booming. Now I been watching NSPR a little trying to find a good time to buy. NSPR is a medical stock that helps certain surgeries possible, yet its downfall is its not sold in the USA and it might be awhile till it is.
TA
-looking at the hourly and even the daily you can see its at its highest volume since June 02 the dump from .81 to now and has been mainting this high volume.
-hourly emas look to be cloing in a bullish move, yet on the daily it does get rejected, so entering the trade on emas targets range are .55-.7
-MACD is uptrending up on the daily and hourly
-RSI is overbought on the hourly, yet neutral on the daily.
-Earning are coming up and the last two earnings don't show much. Last one sideways and the other one it dumped, but pumped higher later.
I personally took a gamble and bought 3k shares, yet would keep this one on your radar just cause the volume at the moment is unlike anything it has done in the past.
$BPMC can rise in the next daysContextual immersion trading strategy idea.
Blueprint Medicines Corporation develops drugs of small molecule kinase inhibitors that target genomic drivers in genomically defined cancers, rare diseases, and cancer immunotherapy.
The share prose rose after the company had announced the deal with pharma giant Roche (RHHBY) to sell a cancer treatment, pralsetinib.
The demand for shares of the company still looks higher than the supply.
These and other conditions can cause a rise in the share price in the next days.
So I opened a long position from $79,21;
stop-loss — $76,47.
Information about take-profits will be later.
Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision.
Always do your own analysis before making deals. When you use any materials, do not rely on blind trust.
You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy.
If you like my content, you can subscribe to the news and receive my fresh ideas.
Thanks for being with me!
$BLI is giving a GREAT IPO LONG opportunity todayIPO intraday trading strategy idea
Berkeley Lights is a leading digital-cell biology company focused on enabling and accelerating the rapid development and commercialization of biotherapeutics and other cell-based products.
The share price is rising and gonna continue this trend today.
The demand for shares of the company still looks higher than the supply.
These and other conditions can cause a rise in the share price today.
So I opened a long position from $58,00;
take-profit — $77,00;
stop-loss — $50,00.
Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision.
Always do your own analysis before making deals. When you use any materials, do not rely on blind trust.
You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy.
If you like my content, you can subscribe to the news and receive my fresh ideas.
Potential descending channel for MMED?The green upward sloping line of support is potentially keeping a bullish flag in play here, but it appears as though downward pressure is indicating there may be a retest of the bottom blue channel where I have the red arrow pointing down.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
A descending channel is drawn by connecting the lower highs and lower lows of a security's price with parallel trendlines to show a downward trend.
Traders who believe a security is likely to remain within its descending channel can initiate trades when the price fluctuates within its channel trendline boundaries.
A more potent signal occurs with a breakout, which is when a security's price breaches an established channel's boundaries, either on the upper or lower side.
Biotech Channel 7/18/2020I've noticed that most tech related ETFs and the NQ are in the same general channel.
This is the XBI at the 4 hour view. It's the biotech ETF. As you may see, my buy zone is way below. This may be due to the coronavirus vaccine hype. Not sure.
Either way, biotech has been grinding at the top of my channel for a while. If it pops above it, it will likely get hammered down.
I'll short it if it pops above my channel and go long when it gets hammered down to my buy zone.
$RIGL can rise in the next daysContextual immersion trading strategy idea.
Rigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biotechnology company, engages in the discovery and development of small molecule drugs for the treatment of immune and hematologic disorders, cancer, and rare diseases.
The share prose rose after the company had announced that a drug used to treat an autoimmune disorder will be tested in a clinical trial in the United Kingdom as a treatment for COVID-19 pneumonia.
The demand for shares of the company still looks higher than the supply.
These and other conditions can cause a rise in the share price in the next days.
So I opened a long position from $2,19;
stop-loss — $2,00.
Information about take-profits will be later.
Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision.
Always do your own analysis before making deals. When you use any materials, do not rely on blind trust.
You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy.
If you like my content, you can subscribe to the news and receive my fresh ideas.
Thanks for being with me!
Who was here looking at that 80 cent BBI DipBBI is still a long in my opinion. For those of you who don't know, I think the current entry price is still pretty good. Post market recovery, this might start rallying again. Resistance and panic selling already been quite high and the negative positive retracement wedge is likely only to be better given trader's psychology. As always, this is on an opinion based basis. Invest at your own risk and do your own due diligence.
Amgen Just Broke Out. Now it’s Bouncing.Biotechnology has quietly moved up the industry rankings in the last month. We recently highlighted the long-term breakout in the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF and now its biggest holding (8% of assets) has some interesting patterns: Amgen.
AMGN broke out to new highs in late 2019 and crashed along with the rest of the market in March. It then proceeded to make a higher low in June as it found support at its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). This produced a cup-and-handle chart pattern.
The stock had a tight bullish flag above its 50-day SMA in late June, and then ripped to new highs after winning a patent case against Novartis.
AMGN pulled back last week. It formed a hammer candlestick on Friday and is now bouncing at its 8-day exponential moving average (EMA). That line can serve as a potential risk-management area.
There are two reasons why it may not dip a lot more. First, AMGN hasn’t run much yet versus its December highs. So, there may not be many profit-takers yet. Second, the relative strength in IBB following its recent breakout could provide tailwinds.
AMGN reports earnings after the closing bell on July 28.
ABIO: Currently looking for a Long EntryFirst off, please don't take anything I say as financial advice and as always everything is on an opinion based basis. Pursue your own due diligence. That being said, ABIO seems to have a decent setup for potentially another bull run quite soon. The resistance curve is about to pop and it looks like this is a close watch as with other stocks I been watching. In my opinion the risk isn't too high given the mostly neutral pattern after the bearish action that happened kicking off June. At that point, the risk got mostly reduced and this price for an entry isn't too bad. It still though is risky.
ILLUMINA (ILMN) potential breakout over resistance $372ILMN is one of the highest conviction picks by ARKK investments (ARKK). They invest in disruptive technology that could potentially change the world.
Another pick Invitae(NVTA) has a similar pattern and broke out recently.
Level exhaustion at the $372 level and a potential accumulation zone. A daily close above 372 would be bullish.
An overall bullish sentiment with the price well above the moving averages.
Some key metrics I looked at,
3Y revenue growth: 13.89%
ROIC: 14.22%
P/CF: 48.54
P/S: 15.48
DCF value: $162 (Simply Wall street)
PEG: 2.2X
Future growth: 26.8%
Historical growth: 17.6%
Rule of 40 = net margin + revenue growth = 29+13= 42 (42>40, OK)
Potential tailwinds,
- Leader by market share (More than 90%)
- Relatively new industry
- Covid19 accelerating genome revolution and health trends
- The decline in cost curve
VRCA Bounce Back Swing TradeVRCA has been tanking the last few days due to FDA Approval Delays
Has a history of bouncing around support and resistance levels around this price
Upside is around 80% if positive PR and price action takes place with the weeks
Low Float stock, can be volatile. (Enjoy the ride)
HTGM Patent
$HTGM
has been granted a key Covid-19 patent. The patent relates to a new way of detecting DNA and RNA in the same sample. Exemplary positive-strand RNA viruses include Coronaviruses (examples of which include SARS coronaviruses).
Looking for break of .70c with volume .
PT1 .78c
PT2 .91c
Stop loss set at .5 fib .58c