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Just as promised, here is a detailed video analysis on NASDAQ:VKTX Viking Therapeutics! 🧬 This trade meets all the criteria of my "High Five Setup" trading strategy, backed by solid technical analysis. Also, it has the potential to return over 100% on your capital deployed.
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#Trading #StockMarket #Biotech #Investing #HighFiveSetup
Biotechstocks
Gilead Sciences (GILD): Will Support Hold or Will We See a Drop?We've neglected Gilead Sciences for a while, but it's time for an update. Unfortunately, our entry looking back wasn't ideal, as the stock has fallen below the 61.8% retracement level. It found support just below the 78.6% level, which marks the bottom of our range. This level was precisely touched, and we saw a relatively good movement upward from there.
However, the outlook remains uncertain. We hope that the stock does not fall below this range bottom, as it would prompt us to consider cutting it. Our first take-profit target is at the range high around $86.5, but reaching this level will take time as Gilead Sciences is currently underperforming.
Unlike most other stocks, Gilead Sciences operates in the research sector, not the tech sector. This means it follows a different cycle and is influenced by different capital flows. It tends to perform well when tech stocks do poorly. If tech stocks remain bullish, Gilead Science might continue to struggle. However, if there's a shift, Gilead Science could reverse and potentially reach up to $123, though this is quite far off.
We are holding our position for now, hoping not to cut if the stock falls out of the range. If it does, we will take necessary action.
MGNX a biotechnology penny stock LONGMacrogenenics sold-off 75% from a moderately bad earnings miss 2 weeks ago. It will be a slow
and gradual recovery in the 10 -12 weeks until the next earnings unless a favorable catalyst
appears. 5 patients died in a clinical study about the same time as earnings were due. This was
a news catalyst amplifying the earnings miss. What is unclear is the total number of patients
being studied, how many who died got the developmental drug and how many got the placebo.
Two deaths were deemed to be unrelated to that drug possibly because they did not receive
it. No matter, the investigation continues. I suspect the clinical trial is at least suspended
and could get terminated. MGNX has six other drugs in development. None are past Phase 3
and so none are revenue producing. MGRX could fail financially or clinical but then again it
could recover. If fialing it could sell-off its intellectual property and clinical trials data or
look for a rich uncle looking to get in to the cancer drug market. Only time will tell.
I see this as a very risky long trade targeting fib levels. I will devote a small capital position
here anticipating anything from a 200-250% return to hitting a 25% stop loss and calling it
finished. IF MGNX can move up I will make sure the stop loss is raised and diminshed a bit.
Those without risk appetite and a pinch of greed should take a pass on this one. Another piece
of bad news could be catastrophic while on the other hand clearance of liability by the FDA and
resumption of the clinical trial would be quite uplifting. It could be a coin flip.
JAN on watch for bullish continuation LONGJAN had earnings but I cannot find the report. It is trading with heavy volume and it shows in
the price action. Price has pulled back in the after-market in a standard Fibonacci retracement.
A pullback is appropriate here as price has gained 250% in a month. I see the pullback
as healthy and JAN is now well positioned for another bullish continuation. Volatility
and volume supports the conclusion. I will set a stop loss at 10% and targets at 50%, 75% and
100% to take partial profits on an anticipated trend up. Alerts will be set onto a set of
moving averages on the 30 minute time frame to detect death cross unders. Once profit is
hits 10% I will change the stop loss to a trailing 10% stop loss and once above 75% make the
trailing loss 5% and once over 100% change it to 3% so I can let the trade run itself from
those orders.
SRZN a Penny biotech LONGSRZN has had good momentum. It has no revenues. Clinical trials but a lot of cash. SRZN has
advanced trials underway for a product to treat alcoholic hepatitis presumably settling it down
before it becomes irreversible cirrhosis (only for patients who are alcohol-free) and also useful
for liver metabolic disorders from a genetic basis.
SRZN has been trending up for a week with a bit of a pause in the middle of it. It picked up
60% of its price while breaking out through the anchored VWAP lines and the volume profile.
The far greater market is the former.
It is priced at 90 or more off it's all-time high of about $160. IF it picks up hype from the
last clinical trial getting a report and a calendared review by the, SRZN could reach for that
all time high. This is speculative and risky as are most biotechnology penny stocks. They are
trading news and potential not current net revenues. A small position with room in the stop
loss for the average range and volatility is best. This is a typical high risk higher potential
reward type of trade.
HRTX a biotech penny stock with 70% in two months LONGHRTX has been suggested by various trading websites as a potentially explosive penny biotech
stock for 2024. It has experienced excellent price actions since an earnings beat in November.
It beat the estimates; that is to say it burned about half as much cash as the analysts estimated
the it would. Today it pumped 11%. Relevant articles can be found compiled on the Yahoo
Finance page linked here.
The chart is 120 minutes. A alpha trend indicator is shown and the supertrend since the
November earnings is upward. An AI Lorentzian indicator is added with a 2000 candle lookback
to generate buy and sell signals. It calculated a 59% win on 83 trades over those 2000 candles
two hours each; this amounts to about 2000 x 2 / 6 hrs per session or more than 600 trading
days = 2 1/2 years.
Also supporting an entry at this time is the faster (45 min) RSI line rising over the 50 level
while the slower ( 240 minutes in red) RSI line has been over the 50 level since those earnings.
The ADX indicator had a DI- and DI + flip with a mini pullback to close out last week's trading
( profit taking).
The volatility indicator also showed that dip with selling volatility greater than buying which
has now flipped.
Given that price has went 5X in 2 months , there is a possibility HRTX is overbought.
Analysts seem to think otherwise.
I will take a stock position here and anticipate holding the position into the next earnings.
For trade management I will take partials of 5 % each at the high of day for ten days going
into earnings and hold the remaining 50% through the earnings. In the meanwhile I will review
the trade if the machine-learning alo indicator generates either a buy or sell signal.
For those lacking the risk tolerance for money-losing biotechnology penny stocks with high
potential but are aware that biotechnology is expected to be "outperforming" in 2024,
XBI and LABU are ETFs with risk-mitigation in the form of a diverse portfolio from the sector.
Moderna Break of Major Support, Short PotentialThis is a Technical Analysis on Moderna (MRNA) on the 1 Week Timeframe.
Current price action shows that we are currently in the process of breaking a MAJOR SUPPORT Zone.
We held critical SUPPORT multiple times ABOVE the $115.00 level, for a span of about 26 months. Expressed by the GREEN circles. But notice we havent been able to successfully rally and stay above the "MAJOR RESISTANCE" line.
Though the CURRENT candle has not yet closed, which it will end of trading session Monday, the 7th of August.
This in my opinion is a critical development. If we CONFIRM below this $115 ish area, the lower range of about $82.00 of the ORANGE zone becomes more likely.
The ORANGE zone, or price range between $115 and $82 has barely any market structure or in other words barely any candles. It would be easy for price to fall stright down, in my opinion.
This can be an area to take a SHORT position.
Another thing to notice since the BLOW of top, we have been forming a DESCENDING TRIANGLE. Its been forming since August 2021, this is NO JOKE. Measuring the target of the end point of descending triangle we get about a 75% drop target. Just remember it doesnt have to play out exactly but its something to consider and keep in the back of the mind.
So just to mention:
1st Target = $82 ish area
2nd Target = $57- $47 range
Last Target = Descending triangle measured target of $29 ( *Less likely for the time being)
RSI has been:
1. printing Lower Highs
2. is currently below the Black Moving average, which i use as an indication of price moving down
3.Is currently in process of ALL TIME RSI LOW, provided we close this weeks candle at current RSI lvl.
STOCH RSI -> Setting up for a BEARish cross. This if it occurs and we are below the MAJOR SUPPORT, bearish momentum can push price down.
Lastly ADX & DI -> We have RED line cross above Green and pointing up. We need to observe this, this indicates also the BEARISH momentum is coming in. If the BLACK moving average curves up and starts moving towards the RED/GREEN line with RED being on top, this will indicate bearish momentum.
CONCLUSION:
We are at major cross roads for MRNA. If we don't have any buying occur during Mondays trading session, and we close below MAJOR SUPPORT, it may be time to SHORT MRNA. We have not had any luck trying to break and stay above the "MAJOR RESISTANCE" line. This, along with multiple touches on MAJOR SUPPORT, has made this WEAK (in my opinion). Short targets include the primary, secondary and descending triangle target levels. Indicators are also shaping up to support the current price action. At times like this, it is important to observe further clues of bearish activity, to be patient and take it one step at a time.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. When trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
FULC Biotech Fib Level BouncdFULC on the 15 minute chart had a good response to favorable earnings and then retraced.
It is now bounding off the Fib 0.5 level and also confluent with the POC line of the volume
profile and the mean of the anchored VWAP. Buying volume appropriately overtook selling
volume on the reversal Luxalgo's Echo indicator, an AI predictive tool, suggests a 10% price
rise in the after-hours which is typically a busy trading period for biotechnology penny stocks.
I will take a long trade on FULC in after hours and take off a part of the position in the next
trading day and hold the rest through the weekend.
APLT Biotech NASDAQ Penny LONGApplied Therapeutics is an uptrending biotechnology company that has earnings
in prior quarters and is heading into another earnings report about may 11th.
The run up in price cction is largely on the proposition of future growth much
like TSLA back in the day.
On the chart besides the obvious uptrend, the volume indicator shows a dramatic
volume surge compared with the running 50 day average while the MACD shows
the lines above the histogram and running upward and parallel.
The ideal entry would be a pullback as the price is now quite extended however
I do not believe that will occur until at least after earnings. I believe
this strong runner will continue until earnings unabated.
As a penny stock many shares can be taken and then the position can be closed
in partials along the way thus taking profits and decreasing the risk in steps.
The same applies to the call options.
SIGA a Biotech breakout last summer- then breakdown ? reversalAs shown on the daily chart dating back to last summer SIGA has been on a persistent decline since the cooling down from the parabolic
breakout last summer. Is there a repeat in the picture? Fundamentally, earnings continue to be weak. much of the stock is held by insiders and
the whole monkey pox thing is settled down although the main product may have use in malaria, leper's disease or whatever other orphan use
it has indications by the FDA and its foreign counterparts.
The technical picture is that it is sitting just above support shown by the Supply Demand Zone indicator of Luxalgo having double bottomed
and now a bit above it. The volume indicator shows a mild increase in buying volume in the past couple of weeks. Price is more than one
standard deviation below the long-term anchored VWAP in the undervalued over-sold zone.
With a weak biotechnology company where insiders have a fair portion of the shares, manipulation can occur. Once a price rise issues
short sellers will buy to cover, and retail traders will jump on board, insiders will "manufacture" a catalyst to prime the pump further.
At some point, the run-up will stall, and the implode itself. I will get on the ride early, a biotechnology speculative trades are
in my playbook. The stop loss here is below the demand zone while the target is the 50% retracement of the downtrend drawn onto
the chart by the Fibonacci Retracement tool.
NVAX - Novavax Biotech Short or not?NVAX as seen on the weekly chart has been in price distress for a long time.
It has only one product on the market due to various issues with the FDA process.
It has a variety of products in development as linked below.
The question is whether it will run out of cash before a sustained revenue
stream develops. FDA approvals for the pipeline products could take years
( the days of emergency approvals for COVID and related are over)
It would seem that a rich uncle like Moderna ( MRNA) would codcme
around with a take-over offer that could send shares into a moonshot
to back when NVAX thrived before its 95% price decline in the past two
years. This seems to be a great short swing play until more products come
to market or a take-over is announced. This is affirmed by the MACD
histogram being persistently negative for the long-term.
BZYR: Potential long term investment - with riskI've become interested in BZYR which trades only OTC at this time. Why is this OTC stock of high importance for long term investors? In order to set this out my post is broken into various parts:
1 - Introduction
2 - The historical battles
3 - Efficacy of a cancer treatment
4 - Summary
5 - The risk to reward for long term investors.
The above cannot possibly avoid referring to organisations and materials in the public domain - as matters of fact and truth before the courts.
Introduction:
The founder has discovered a treatment for cancers that cannot be treated by conventional treatments, that is better than anything out there at this time. The research has been in the public domain for the last 30-odd years. The discovery is called Antineoplastons - which is a combination of various peptides and other 'chemicals'.
Historical battles:
The research evidence for efficacy has not been faulted. The FDA (in the public domain) took the founder through 4 grand juries. The case failed at the Texas State Supreme Court, in an attempt to remove the founder's medical licence.
The whole story runs very deep back to the 1980s - but despite strenous efforts to shut down the treatment (and the founder), it persists to this day, through the endless legal battles. Staying within the 'House Rules' means that I am cautious not to breach.
In 1982 the FDA stated " never have and never will approve a new drug to an individual but only to a large pharmaceutical firm with unlimited finances ." Therefrom sprung one of the most severe fights in FDA history. dealings with the FDA commenced in 1983 at that point the FDA commenced a civil action to try to close the clinic and stop all patients from receiving the medicine before the judge in this case.
Before the judge in the 1983 court case had announced her ruling the FDA sends her a letter warning her in advance " if this court declines to grant the injunction sought by the government thus permitting continued manufacture and distribution of antineoplastons the government would then be obliged to pursue other less efficient remedies such as actions for seizure and condemnation of the drugs or criminal prosecution of individuals. "
Efficacy of cancer treatment with Antineoplastons:
Mainstream cancer research organisations will say " There is not enough reliable evidence to use it as a cancer treatment " or that the treatment is ' experimental '. But this is not true. If there has been an experiment, it was fully under the watch of the FDA, and the results are beyond belief for success.
Double-blind randomised controlled trials in Japan have proved the superior efficacy of the treatment (which is not 100% but far better than what exists).
Summary
Antineoplaston treatment has weathered all battles for over 30 years. It's not going away. It's survival suggests something novel and unique has been discovered. Why is this treatment surviving at all? Why all the battles against it? Those are matters for you to ponder.
The risk to reward for long term investors:
The weeky chart will show that BZYR (an OTC stock) is near rock bottom and possibly in an accummulation phase. Note carefully that OTC stocks are not on conventional exchanges like NYSE and NASDAQ.
The potential growth over a 5 year period could be significant in relation to a fixed risk of loss which should be an affordable one, if more research confirms it's specific kind of efficacy. This could be the next 'Amazon' of the biomedical world.
As always I emphasise the risk - and I am unable to provide tips on how to manage that. Disclaimers apply.
$PSIL Bombed out #Weed #ETF $MSOS attacking resistance lines...Will it pull up the
AdvisorShares Psychedelics ETF?
Strength in the #Biotech sector would also be a friendly situation.
here are the top holdings:
CMPS COMPASS PATHWAYS PLC 13.12%
ATAI ATAI LIFE SCIENCES NV 9.73%
CYBN CYBIN INC 7.97%
SEEL SEELOS THERAPEUTICS INC 6.90%
ITCI INTRA-CELLULAR THERAPIES INC 6.44%
HUGE FSD PHARMA INC-CLASS B 5.82%
SAGE SAGE THERAPEUTICS INC 5.23%
ALKS ALKERMES PLC 4.84%
DRUG BRIGHT MINDS BIOSCIENCES INC 4.70%
I can see this ETF targeting $3.2 as its first port of call.
Biotechs are on fire! Gossamer and upcoming event! Biotechnology is the favorite sector of one of our analysts, most of his portfolio consists of biotechs, and he himself claims that it is the cryptocurrency of the common stock market.
Why? Let's explain :
High risk/reward and high volatility.
Imagine this: you invest in a company that has no revenue or any specific product, yet you believe in the idea it promotes. You're taking giant risks because it's far from clear what to expect.
But for that you get a great opportunity to make a quick buck. In biotech, soaring by 20%, 30%, or even 100% is the absolute norm. But you have to approach it carefully, because if you fail, the reaction can be devastating.
Here is an example of successful investment in biotech companies:
Axsome Therapeutics
Ranks: 48.
The company recently grew by more than 30% after successful results from a clinical trial of its drug to treat agitation in Alzheimer's disease.
Cool? Absolutely.
Our analysts have found another attractive company with a catalyst in the coming days!
Its name is Gossamer Bio.
Ranks: 11
Financials are really weak, the Ranks system also gives it a low rating, but the coming catalyst could immediately change everything. In the coming days, the company is expected to present the data of phase 2 of its core drug GB002. Take a closer look at the company!
Biotechs are scam or great potential
9/28/22 XBISPDR S&P Biotech ETF ( AMEX:XBI )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $ --
Current Price: $81.20
Breakout price: $84.40
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $80.50-$74.75
Price Target: $99.10-$100.80
Estimated Duration to Target: 75-81d
Contract of Interest: $XBI 12/16/22 85c
Trade price as of publish date: $5.40/contract
ABBV up;respecting wma50 despite LABU biotech 3x etf falling 10%ABBV is one of Warren Buffet’s holding in BRK.B. It has been respecting the weekly wma50 for a long time while holding an uptrend.
I think the sentiment has been too bearish & a shortterm rebound in the general market is due in the next few days.
Not trading advice.3
LABU 3X LEVERAGED BIOTECH ETF on support for LONGAMEX:LABU
LABU a 3x leveraged EFT in the biotechnology sector has diverse holdings.
My thesis is that biotechnology and healthcare are relatively unhinged from the broader general market.
On this 15 minute chart, consolidation at support is seen in July, Price then rapidly rose
into a triple top in mid-August followed by a descent into a double bottom at the support level.
This is a leveraged ETF with good volatility which can be traded.
The volume profile of July through mid-August sets a POC as 8,65. This is the best support level
within the zone. In the same fashion the volume profile of mid-August through the present sets
a POC at 12.45 which is the bottom of the resistance zone. The spread is approximately 40% upside
over perhaps two weeks of the expectant uptrend.
The zero-lag SMA / EMA oscillator is showing green at its most recent print with an uptrend noted.
I will take a trade in a call option with a strike 20 % higher than current price
given the potential immediate upside of 40%. I will select an expiration in 4-6 weeks and hope
for a 100-200% return.
MRNA has rallied 66% from its bottom MRNA has rallied 66% from its bottom set in mid june.
Technical indicators suggest a strong turnaround.
The P/E ratio and Forward P/E ratio remain in the low single digits.
I boosted my position when the price crossed above the 50 day EMA.
I will take advantage of any pull-back below the 200 day EMA close or low.
Overall, this is still a nice entry point if you wish to go long MRNA for the rest of the decade.