XU100 - Short Term Bear Channel FormedAttention
200MA in the hourly chart, which is around 5396, is now a resistance (previously it was a support!)
Red Channel
Now focus on the red channel: On Jan 5 and Jan 6, its highs and lows are formed respectively. And today, on Jan 9, we saw that the top of the channel is verified at the start of the day. Looks like we will be in this bear channel for a couple of days, until the appetite is back. (remember, it's an intensely inflationary country and the stock market's direction is up unless something drastic happens xD).
The best scenario: The index hits the previous high at 5093 and bounces. The obvious price action move. However I don't expect this to go off, since the retail investors are really panicky and they will act in a bipolar manner.
Good scenario: The index hits 4992 (where the daily 50MA will be) and bounces from there.
Bad Scenario: The index hits 4772 (where the 4hour 200MA will be) and bounces from there. It will also be very close to the support at 4770 which we found from the price action. This looks to me like the most probable scenario.
Basically, I expect the daily RSI to go as low as 30-35s and get up from there.
