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Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)

Bitcoin's Structure Breaks — PRZ May Trigger a BounceBitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) has finally continued its downward trend , as I expected in my previous idea . Do you think this downward trend will continue or not? Bitcoin has now managed to break the Support zone($104,180-$103,670) and the lower line of the Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , Bitcoin appears to be completing microwave C of the main wave Y of the Double Three Correction(WXY) . I expect Bitcoin to continue to decline to the Support zone($102,000-$107,120) and the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and then start to rise again. I choose to label this idea as ''Long''. Note: If Bitcoin falls below $100,200, we should expect further declines. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
19
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #109👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro! Let’s dive into the Bitcoin analysis and key crypto indicators. As usual, I’ll walk you through the futures triggers for the New York session. ⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe In the 1-hour chart, as you can see, yesterday Bitcoin activated the short trigger at 103899 and dropped below the 101750 level. This setup gave an opportunity to open a short position—hopefully you took advantage of it. ✨ After that bearish leg, the downtrend ended and the price began to rise again, now reaching back to the 103899 level. 🔍 If the price gets rejected once from 103899 and then forms a higher low compared to 101750, we can consider a long position on subsequent attempts—if 103899 breaks. If the price breaks this level sharply, the next long triggers will be 105087 and 106586. 📉 For today's short position, we can enter on a pullback to 103899. Personally, I’ll look for a bearish trigger in lower timeframes; if confirmed, I’ll open a short. The main bearish trigger remains the break of 101750. 📊 Currently, volume favors buyers, but we’ve seen divergence during this bullish leg, and volume increased on the last bearish move. So, I still see a higher probability of the market turning bearish rather than bullish. 👑 BTC.D Analysis Looking at Bitcoin dominance, yesterday it made an upward move to 64.67 after breaking through 64.23. This 64.67 level is a strong resistance, and as shown, the dominance got rejected there. 💫 If this rejection is confirmed, there's a high chance of a retracement back to 64.23. In that case, if the market continues to drop, Bitcoin will likely be a better short than altcoins. ☘️ However, if 64.67 breaks, dominance could initiate another bullish wave. 📅 Total2 Analysis As for Total2, after activating the 1.16 and 1.13 triggers, it dropped to the 1.1 zone and is now making a pullback to its previous support—similar to Bitcoin. 💥 For a long position, we’ll need a Dow Theory confirmation. For a short, we can wait for a pullback to 1.13 and look for a bearish confirmation to enter. 📅 USDT.D Analysis Now onto Tether dominance: yesterday, after breaking 4.79, it moved up to 4.98. Following that, it reversed and is now back down to 4.79. 🔑 If 4.79 breaks, Tether dominance could drop further to 4.70 and 4.64. But if it holds and finds support there, another bullish leg may begin. ❌ Disclaimer ❌ Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel. Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
by tradecitypro
4
Bitcoin - Will the $100K Level Hold?Since reaching its all-time high (ATH) on May 22nd at an impressive $112,000, Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a corrective phase that has caught the attention of traders and analysts alike. After a strong and relentless move to the upside, such a phase is not uncommon in crypto markets, where rapid rallies are often followed by cooling-off periods. As of now, BTC is trading at around $101,000, marking a decline from its peak but still maintaining a significant portion of its recent gains. This retracement has not only been healthy in terms of price structure but also offers potential opportunities for those closely monitoring key technical levels. 4H FVG One important aspect of the move leading up to the ATH was the formation of a 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG). These imbalances, left behind during aggressive moves in the market, are often revisited and filled as part of a broader effort by price to return to equilibrium. The current FVG spans from approximately $100,500 to $99,800. This range is especially noteworthy, as such gaps tend to act as magnets for price action, creating zones of potential support where buyers may step in to defend the structure. As BTC approaches this region, it's plausible to expect at least a temporary bounce, particularly if market sentiment remains constructive. Golden Pocket Fibonacci Adding further weight to this zone is the confluence of the Golden Pocket, the area between the 0.618 and 0.65 Fibonacci retracement levels, derived from the latest upward leg. This specific Fibonacci region is widely regarded in technical analysis as a high-probability reversal zone, often attracting significant buying interest. Interestingly, the Golden Pocket aligns almost perfectly with the aforementioned FVG, both residing in the $100,500 to $99,800 range. The overlapping of these two technical indicators strengthens the case for this area to act as a firm support level, or at the very least, a point where the ongoing correction could take a breather. Conclusion Taken together, the alignment of the 4H FVG and the Golden Pocket around the $100,000 mark creates a technically compelling scenario. The psychological impact of a round number like $100,000 only adds to its potential as a battleground between buyers and sellers. If this zone holds, it could spark a notable bounce, either a temporary relief rally or potentially the beginning of a renewed leg to the upside, depending on broader market conditions. Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment!
Long
by Youriverse
19
Bitcoin’s Reversal from Supports — Is the Correction Over? Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) moved as I expected in the previous idea , and it also reversed the decline I intended and started to rise from the Support zone($102,000-$107,120) , Support lines , and 50_SMA(Daily) . Bitcoin is trading near the Resistance zone($104,380-$103,670) , Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($105,500-$105,265) , and Resistance lines . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that Bitcoin has managed to complete the main wave Y . The main corrective structure was the Double Three Correction(WXY) . If the Resistance lines are broken , we can confirm the end of the main wave Y . I expect Bitcoin to start rising after a re-correction from Cumulative Long Liquidations Leverage and reach the targets I have specified on the chart. Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $102,883-$102,181 Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $101,318-$100,748 Note: If Bitcoin falls below $100,200(Worst Stop Loss(SL)), we should expect further declines. Note: $105,500 is an important price for Bitcoin, and if Bitcoin can close the 4-hour candle above it, we can expect a break of the Heavy Resistance zone($104,380-$103,670) Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
5
BITCOIN Log Channel and Waves show we're nowhere near the top.This is Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on its Logarithmic Growth Channel with the use of Rainbow Waves on it. This model accounts for the Halvings (light blue vertical lines) and with the use of Fibonacci Time extensions, it estimates the potential Cycle Bottoms (green vertical lines) and Tops (red vertical lines) within the Parabolic Growth Curve. A fair value is estimated around the purple trend-line (zone top and bottom) as well as a maximum (red trend-line) and minimum (light blue trend-line) wave. Interestingly enough, BTC hit that minimum wave trend-line on the April 07 2025 Low for the first time since June 17 2017, making it the strongest buy signal we could get at this stage of the Cycle. So based on all the above, Bitcoin is nowhere near the top of its Cycle and this isn't just because it hasn't yet touched the next red vertical line (Time Fib 4.382) which is on October 27 2025, but also because it is currently trading below the Fair Value Zone (even below its bottom half). Both previous Cycles topped considerably above that Fair Value Zone and almost hit the maximum wave. Even if by October 27 2025, Bitcoin 'only' hits the purple (Fair Value) trend-line, it would have reached $135000 and if earlier it can even hit $145000. That is the bare minimum based on that model. If it hits the top of the Fair Value Zone by October 27, then we can see prices as high as $180000 even. Which price do you think we are more likely to see? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
1
HelenP. I Bitcoin may grow to resistance zone from trend lineHi folks today I'm prepared for you Bitcoin analytics. This chart shows how the price declined to the trend line and then made an impulse up to the support level, which coincided with the support zone. Also, price started to trades inside a pennant, where it soon broke the support level and then traded some time near it. Later, it continued to grow and in a short time rose to the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone and broke this level as well. Then BTC reached the resistance line of the pennant, turned around, and dropped below the 108000 level, after which a few moments traded between this level. After this, price continued to fall and after it broke 108000 leve one more time, it dropped to the trend line, which is a support line of the pennant too. Price has traded near this line and recently BTC rebounded up. So, I expect that BTCUSDT will correct to the trend line and then rise to the resistance level. After this, I think the price may break it and enter to resistance zone. That's why I set my goal at 108800 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Long
by FirstNameHelen
15
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #108👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro! Let’s dive into the analysis of Bitcoin and key crypto indices. As usual, in this analysis, I’ll review the futures session triggers for New York. ⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe As you can see in the 1-hour timeframe, yesterday the 105087 trigger was activated, and now after a pullback to that level, the price is heading toward the 103899 support. 💥 If you entered a short position based on the 105087 trigger, you can hold it until 103899. If you haven’t opened a position yet, you can consider today’s triggers. 🔽 The first short trigger for today is the 103899 level. A break below this level can start a major bearish move. Personally, I’ll enter a short if this level breaks. ⚡️ Breaking below 38.95 on the RSI will give us a suitable momentum confirmation. If selling volume increases, the probability of a bearish move will rise. 📈 For long positions, our first trigger is the same 105087 level. If a higher low is formed compared to 103899 and this level breaks, it will provide a good long opportunity. 💫 The main long trigger is 106586. If this level is broken, the uptrend can resume and price could move toward higher resistance levels. 👑 BTC.D Analysis Looking at Bitcoin Dominance, a range box has formed between 63.93 and 64.23. ✨ A break above 64.23 confirms bullish continuation, while a break below 63.93 confirms a bearish trend in dominance. 📅 Total2 Analysis Moving to Total2, yesterday it closed below 1.17, and now after a pullback, it's heading toward 1.16. ✅ If 1.16 breaks, a short position can be opened. If the downward move turns out to be fake, a break above 1.18 gives us a long trigger. 📅 USDT.D Analysis Looking at Tether Dominance, yesterday it confirmed above 4.70 and is now moving toward 4.79. A break of 4.79 could signal a continuation of the upward move. 📊 If it closes back below 4.70, the price could move toward 4.64. A break below 4.64 would signal a bearish trend in USDT dominance. ❌ Disclaimer ❌ Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel. Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
Long
by tradecitypro
3
BITCOIN under brutal 4H squeeze. Buyers or sellers will prevail?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is currently under the strongest squeeze we've seen this year as it's being compressed between the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). Such tight price action usual precedes explosive moves. Technically two patterns prevail: a long-term Channel Up and a short-term Head and Shoulders (H&S). Naturally, as long as the Channel Up holds (and is still valid), the pattern will attempt to push the price to he 2.0 Fibonacci extension at $121500 (and higher). If on the other hand it breaks (4H MA200 would be an early signal), the H&S may push the price to the -1.0 Fibonacci extension at $95000. So what do you think? Which pattern will prevail? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
10
BTCUSD: Just hit the 1D MA50 and is rebounding.Bitcoin turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.000, MACD = 923.400, ADX = 25.014) as it hit its 1D MA50 for the first time since April 19th. That is a straight up buy signal, especially since the the current Channel Up with its 1D RSI HL structure, resembles September - December 2024. TP = 165,000. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by InvestingScope
1
Bitcoin, Fast & Easy. $100,000 Support Holds +AltcoinsThe main support is not $100,000 but $102,000, so we make this a range. Yesterday, for the first time this range was tested and it holds easily... We are strongly bullish above $102,000 and Bitcoin is already trading above 103K. This is really good news but we are not fully in the green yet. Bitcoin can continue sideways, consolidation, and only after closing above $106,000 we are looking for higher prices. Once $110,000 gets conquered, we can start talking about new all-time highs and sustained bullish growth. Meanwhile, the altcoins grow. So we are not there yet but this is the best ever. For Cryptocurrency to thrive we need a strong Bitcoin and Bitcoin right now is very strong. Are you trading any altcoin? If you are, feel free to accumulate, load-up, buy and hold. As for Bitcoin, here is a very easy trading approach: While above $100,000, ALL-IN bullish confirmed. If it goes below $100,000, stay out and wait to see what the market does. As soon as there is a support level created, we go LONG. If it goes below $100,000 just to recover the next day, we are again ALL-IN as soon as Bitcoin starts trading above 100K. This process can be repeated many times but once Bitcoin takes off, buying below $110,000 is a major win because soon Bitcoin will be trading above $150,000. We have targets around $180,000 and even beyond $200,000 is possible this same year. Never forget the bigger picture. The bigger picture is bullish for Bitcoin and the altcoins, the short-term can create confusion because the chart, market conditions, can change within hours. But there can be a drop, a retrace or a market flush, but knowing that Bitcoin will be trading above $150,000 soon turns such an event into a non-event, it makes it into a simple hold. The action on the side of the altcoins confirms that Bitcoin will continue to grow. Short, mid and long-term. There is no retrace, there is no correction, only a small consolidation phase in anticipation of the next bullish wave. You already know this. If you didn't, now you know. In 2025, Bitcoin will continue to grow. Just as it grew in 2023 and 2024. We are entering bull market season. Bullish momentum will only start to gain force. Namaste.
Long
by MasterAnanda
1
This is a deception or maybe a technique !!!I think this head and shoulders pattern is trying to deceive us and is fake. I expect the price to drop to the support line and then rise to $109k. WAIT FOR IT.... Give me some energy !! The Crypto Market Game: How to Win Against Fear and Manipulation Did you really think profiting from the current bull run (a comprehensive upward market) would be easy? Don't be naive. Do you think they’ll let you buy low, hold, and sell high without any struggle? If it were that simple, everyone would be rich. But the truth is: 90% of you will lose. Why? Because the crypto market is not designed for everyone to win. They will shake you. They will make you doubt everything. They will create panic, causing you to sell at the worst possible moment. Do you know what happens next? The best players in this game buy when there’s fear, not sell—because your panic gives them cheap assets. This is how the game works: strong hands feed off weak hands. They exaggerate every dip, every correction, every sell-off. They make it look like the end of the world so you abandon everything. And when the market rises again, you’re left sitting there asking, “What just happened?” This is not an accident. It’s a system. The market rewards patience and punishes weak emotions. The big players already know your thoughts. They know exactly when and how to stir fear, forcing you to give up. When you panic, they profit. They don’t just play the market—they play you. That’s why most people never succeed: they fall into the same traps over and over again. People don’t realize that dips, FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt), and panic are all part of the plan. But the winners? They block out the noise. They know that fear is temporary, but smart decisions last forever. We’ve seen this play out hundreds of times. They pump the market after you sell. They take your assets, hold them, and sell them back to you at the top—leaving you with nothing, wondering how it happened. Don’t play their game. Play your own.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CobraVanguard
8
Bitcoin - We have to see new highs now!Bitcoin - CRYPTO:BTCUSD - is now at the previous highs: (click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻) It could really not be more exciting on Bitcoin at the moment. With the current "all or nothing" potential breakout or double top creation, we will either see a bullrun or a bear market. So far, bulls are still strong, so the chances of a breakout luckily remain higher. Levels to watch: $100.000 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by basictradingtv
Bitcoin's Roadmap: Price Structure, Fair Value & Market RhythmSince bottoming on November 21, 2022, Bitcoin has embarked on a remarkable bull run, rising +623.5% over 927 days and reaching a new all-time high (ATH) of ~112K. When compared to the previous bull cycle, spanning 1061 days and producing a +2086% gain, this current rally shows signs of diminishing returns, a typical behaviour of maturing markets. Traders now face a critical question: has Bitcoin peaked for this cycle, or is another surge toward ~120K+ possible? Historical Echoes: Elliott Wave Comparison The 2018–2021 bull market formed a five-wave Elliott structure. That cycle ended with a -77.5% correction. The current cycle similarly traces out a completed five-wave advance from the $15.5K low, suggesting we may now be in a corrective phase. Current hypothesis: Bitcoin is in Wave B of an ABC correction, with Wave C potentially targeting $64K–$70K. Harmonic Confirmation: Cypher Sigma Pattern A refined harmonic formation, I call it the Cypher Sigma Harmonic Pattern (CSHP) and it has proven highly effective in volatile assets like Bitcoin. It differs from the classic Cypher by: BC projection: 1.07–1.136 of XA (vs. 1.272–1.414) CD retracement: 0.786–0.886 of XC BD extension: 1.272–1.618 of BC (not present in traditional Cypher but often targets 1.272-2.0) In 2022, this pattern predicted the bottom near $16K. Currently, another Cypher Sigma is potentially forming, pointing to a possible correction to ~$64K. This target aligns with historical level (the 2021 ATH zone) and represents a possible -40% pullback. Multi-Layered Technical Confluence Pitchfork Resistance: Bitcoin rejected the upper resistance (Fib 1.0–1.136 zone) Pitchfork Golden Pocket Support: ~$64K matches the golden pocket and high-liquidity area Fibonacci Circles: Rejection precisely at the 1.618–1.65 circle arc (~$112K) Speed Fan 0.618: Key structural support intersects projected retracement zone Previous 2021 ATH Together, these tools strongly support the hypothesis of a macro top forming. Fair Value Trend Model (FVTM) – New Indicator As part of ongoing research into Bitcoin’s long-term valuation, I developed the Fair Value Trend Model—a logarithmic regression-based indicator tailored for Bitcoin. Here is an example on the monthly timeframe. Key Features: Computes a log-log regression: ln(Price) vs ln(Days since inception) Yields a power-law growth curve: F(t) = C · ^b Includes dynamic channel bands at user-defined percentage offsets Projects the trend forward in time with linear extrapolation I have just freshly published this indicator for free on TradingView. Visit my profile, add it to your chart, and explore how Bitcoin consistently revisits its fair value in bear markets before launching new macro waves. Use Cases: Identify overextensions above the fair value channel Spot mean-reversion setups near the lower channel band Gauge long-term trend continuation via slope and forecast The indicator is best used on daily, weekly and monthly charts, and it supports both all-time and rolling-window modes. Educational Insight: The Fair Value Trend Model isn’t just a tool! It's a lens to view the long-term rhythm of the Bitcoin market. By understanding where the fair value lies, you gain the clarity to separate short-term volatility from long-term opportunity. Every great trader starts with a desire to understand. If you're learning, experimenting, and observing patiently—you’re on the right path. Let this model be your guide through the noise. Trust the math, respect the cycles, and never stop refining your edge. Study day and swing trading, improve your technical and psychological skills, and wait patiently for high-probability trade setups, whether short-, medium-, or long-term. Being patient is key. Psychological Insight: Mastery Over Impulse The greatest returns favour the patient. Traders who ignored the noise in 2022 and accumulated around $16K were rewarded exponentially. As Bitcoin potentially enters a correction, the same principle applies: monitor, learn, and prepare—not panic. Top-tier traders execute based on structure, not emotion. This cycle will reward those who: -> Study multi-timeframe confluences Outlook: Bearish Retracement, Bullish Opportunity While a push to $120K+ is possible, the confluence of Elliott Wave, harmonic patterns, and macro tools suggest a potential 40% retracement into ~$64K by end of 2025/early 2026. This aligns with historical patterns and may offer a great buying opportunity. This cycle isn’t about catching the exact top—it’s about navigating it intelligently. Use tools that reflect structural value, not just reactive price action. Combine the Fair Value Trend Model with other tools to gain clarity. Most importantly: remain curious, remain disciplined. Happy trading. Thanks for reading =) stay sharp, stay patient, and keep evolving 🚀 _________________________________ If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.
Short
by SiDec
4
Bitcoin may break resistance level and continue to move upHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. If we look at the chart, we can see how the price entered an upward channel and declined to the support line. Then it started to grow and soon reached the 93500 support level, after which it broke this level and then some time traded near. After this, the price rebounded and continued to move up inside an upward channel, where it later reached a resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone. When BTC reached this level, it broke it too and even rose to the resistance line of the channel, but soon it turned around and dropped to the seller zone. In this area, the price long time traded and later tried to grow, but failed and continued to decline. Soon, BTC broke the 106500 level and fell below the resistance level. But recently, price turned around and grew to this level again, and now trades very close. In my opinion, Bitcoin can decline a little and then break the resistance level one more time. After this movement, I expect that the price will continue to move up inside the upward channel, so I set my TP at 112000 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Long
by LegionQ8
11
BITCOIN - Price can reach resistance area and then dropHi guys, this is my overview for BTCUSDT, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 Recently, the price bounced from the $104500 level and rose to the $110400 level, breaking this level and rising a little more. But then price turned around and started to decline inside a falling channel, where it fell below $110400 level. Price tried to back up, but failed and when it touched $110400 level, it in a short time declined to support line of channel. Then price rose above $104500 level and some time traded near this level, but not long time ago it dropped. BTC broke $104500 level and even fell further and exited from falling channel, after which it started to grow. Now, I expect that Bitcoin can enter to resistance area and then drop to $100900 from this area. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Short
by WalterMoon
1
Bitcoin Breaks below $102,500 Support : Watch For RejectionIf you have been following my research on Bitcoin, you already know I published a prediction of a Double-Top pattern and a potential breakdown in Bitcoin on May 20, 2025. TradingView selected this video as an Editor's Pick and it received thousands of views. Thank you for all the great comments and questions from everyone. Now, after about 3+ Weeks, we are starting to see BTCUSD move below my $102,500 support level (my breakdown level) and this could be the start of a broad downward price phase for BTCUSD and US/Global assets. If you have followed any of my longer-term research, you'll quickly understand why I believe the US markets will struggle through most of 2025 as the world attempts to adjust to Trump leadership. This uncertainty will likely result in a sideways-consolidation phase in many global markets and a disruption of hard and soft assets. In this regard, you can read the content of my original post (May 20). Right now, I want to warn you that an immediate price rejection of the breakdown move is likely - possibly targeting $105k or higher. This type of rejection is very common before price makes a much bigger move. So, be prepared for BTCUSD to attempt to reject and move back above $105k, then stall and break downward very hard - trying to move below $80k in an initial downward price phase. It's going to be very interesting to see how this plays out with my broad cycle research. I'm still expecting a July 2025 and October 2025 MAJOR LOW cycle phase to play out. Buckle up. Get some #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BradMatheny
1
Bitcoin – Entering a distribution phase after a bull trap?Since the second week of May, Bitcoin (BTC) has exhibited a textbook accumulation phase, with a well-defined trading range forming just below the previous all-time high. Beginning around May 12, price action became increasingly compressed, marked by a series of higher lows and relatively flat resistance, indicating growing demand and waning selling pressure. This consolidation structure persisted for more than a week, suggesting that larger players were accumulating positions in anticipation of a breakout. Now it could be making the Power of 3. Accumulation, manipulation and distribution. Accumulation, manipulation and distribution Eventually, this coiled energy resolved to the upside. BTC broke through the upper boundary of the accumulation zone with increasing volume and momentum, triggering a sharp rally and leading to the formation of a new all-time high. At that point, market sentiment turned decidedly bullish, with breakout traders entering the market, expecting continuation. However, the price failed to sustain above the previous ATH for long. Despite the breakout’s initial strength, Bitcoin was unable to establish a solid foothold above the critical psychological and technical level, which has now proven to be a key inflection point. Soon after setting a new high, BTC began to reverse, shedding gains and retracing back below the former resistance level, which had temporarily acted as support. The breakdown below the $106,000 mark, previously the ceiling of the accumulation range, signaled a notable shift in market structure. What was initially viewed as a healthy continuation pattern evolved into what now appears to be a classic bull trap. This type of failed breakout often leaves market participants vulnerable, as late buyers are caught in drawdowns and early longs may be incentivized to exit positions. Given this context, the recent price action carries the hallmarks of a Power of 3, where market makers and institutions may be offloading positions to less informed participants. This phase is often mistaken for continued accumulation by retail traders due to its structural similarity; however, the key difference lies in the failure to maintain new highs and the emergence of lower highs on any attempted bounce. The rejection above the ATH and the subsequent breakdown below $106K has introduced significant overhead supply, which may act as resistance in the near term. Target levels As BTC continues to trade below this critical level, the likelihood of a further retracement grows. The market appears to be transitioning into a phase of redistribution or distribution proper, where price is likely to be capped on rallies and pressured lower over time. It is reasonable to expect that Bitcoin could revisit $100.000 to mid-$90,000s, an area that may serve as a magnet for liquidity and a potential staging ground for the next major move. This region could represent a "Last Point of Supply" (LPSY) within the Wyckoff framework, typically the final area where smart money distributes before initiating a more decisive markdown phase. Nevertheless, this potential pullback should not be viewed solely as a sign of weakness. In many bull cycles, such corrections and shakeouts serve to flush out over-leveraged positions and reset sentiment, ultimately laying the groundwork for renewed upward momentum. Should BTC find stability and demand re-emerge in the $95K–$100K range, it could mark the beginning of a new re-accumulation phase, leading to a healthier and more sustainable advance. Conclusion In summary, the recent breakout above ATH followed by a sharp reversal and loss of key support paints a cautionary picture in the short term. Bitcoin may currently be navigating a distribution zone, with downside pressure likely to persist as the market digests recent gains. However, such corrections are typical in broader uptrends and often present opportunities for strategic entries once the next accumulation structure becomes clear. Patience and disciplined observation will be essential as the market defines its next directional bias. Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment!
Short
by Youriverse
60
Bitcoin Crashes To $81,346.77? Good News & Bad NewsBitcoin is crashing... ? Not really, Bitcoin continues really strong above $100K. We have good news and bad news. Bad news. The very ultra-strong, long-term unbreakable support zone is being challenged. This is the $100,000 - $102,000 price range. God news. It holds. This support zone is being challenged but so far it holds. So far there is nothing unexpected here we know the market can shake, the market is bound to produce swings. If 100K breaks though this would be a completely different story. If it breaks, Bitcoin continues bullish producing a retrace only to end as a higher low followed by additional growth. Will support break or hold, is there a way to know? Bitcoin's retrace after the all-time high so far amounts to -10%. A standard retrace can easily push prices between 0.382 and 0.5 Fib. retracement. Anything lower and this would be a correction rather than a retrace. Will it break? It is possible but so far 100K is a very strong support. We have EMA55 here as well as several Fib. levels but if Bitcoin remains below $102,000 then it can definitely break. The next major support below 100K sits at MA200 or $95,000. This is in-between 0.382-0.5 Fib. retracement. This can be used as the higher low zone and re-entry zone. But, Bitcoin is really strong and demand is big, so we have to wait for the weekly close. Remember, Bitcoin will continue slightly bearish, consolidating, until the Fed decision. After the event, it is very likely to go full blown bullish. The altcoins will grow as well. Watch the market shake just to recover the next day. Are you a weak hand or a strong hand? Do you have a trading plan? If you do, nothing changes, simply short-term noise. If you don't have a plan, right now you might be thinking that the world is close to its end. It isn't, Bitcoin will continue to grow, it takes time for the bulls to recharge before the next wave of growth. Focus on the long-term. Thanks a lot for your continued support. Namaste.
by MasterAnanda
2
Where Can Bitcoin Go? Part 7Title: Where Can Bitcoin Go? Part 7 Post: 🌍📊 Where Can Bitcoin Go? Part 7 🧭🔥 This is it — Part 7 of our ongoing macro Bitcoin analysis — and this one is rooted in the three all-time trendlines that I’ve used for years to map out Bitcoin’s biggest moments. We are now heading north, potentially to do something historic : test the upper trendline resistance for the third time . 📈 When Bitcoin does this, it tends to either break out massively ... or signal the end of a cycle . That’s why this zone — 114.5K to 115K — is critical . A successful breakout here and $100K becomes history . It would unleash Bitcoin into a new phase of its long-term bullish evolution. 🦅 On the flip side: this might also mark the final resistance of the current cycle . Either way, it’s a zone where serious decisions will be made — and manipulation will likely spike. 👀 🔑 Key Levels: 114,520–115,000 : Breakout zone — reclaim this and we’re headed higher. 97,770 : Key support — fail to hold, and we reassess the bullish case. 🎥 Want to better understand the levels in play? Watch my latest video idea, where I draw comparisons between BTC now and the Brexit 2016 setup. This will help you see why I’m preparing for major volatility . 🚀📈 Bitcoin smells like 'Brexit to the NORTH Pole!' 💥🇬🇧 I’ll post the video link below once live — keep an eye out for it! 👇 Previous post: “Bitcoin smells like 'Brexit to the NORTH Pole!’” One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 ps. Big breakout at 115k or end of cycle? I am hoping for the first!
Long
by FX_Professor
3
Volatility period has begun. Hello, traders. Please "Follow" to get the latest information quickly. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- We need to see if the price can hold above OBV Low. We need to see if the price can hold above OBV High or HA-High. It is showing a downward trend while failing to rise above OBV Low. If this continues to decline further, we should check if the HA-Low indicator is newly created. This volatility period is expected to start around June 6 (June 5-7) and continue until around June 13 (June 12-14). If the auxiliary indicator OBV falls below the Low Line, there is a possibility of another large decline. At this time, the key is whether it can receive support and rise near 99705.62. If not, it is expected to select the trend again when it meets the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart. The basic trading strategy is to buy at the HA-Low indicator and sell at the HA-High indicator. If you apply this basic principle, you buy when it rises above 102049.52 and shows support, and sell near 104938.72. For this basic principle to be applied normally, OBV is rising and the StochRSI indicator is rising. However, it is better if the StochRSI indicator has not entered the overbought zone if possible. However, if it is resisted and falls at the HA-Low indicator, it is likely to show a stepwise downtrend, and if it is supported and rises at the HA-High indicator, it is likely to show a stepwise uptrend. Therefore, when testing support near the HA-Low indicator, if the OBV shows a downward trend and the StochRSI indicator shows a downward trend (if possible, a downward trend in the overbought area), the possibility of a stepwise downtrend increases. The end of the stepwise uptrend that occurs after meeting the HA-Low or HA-High indicator is a downtrend, and the end of the stepwise downtrend is an uptrend. Therefore, the trading method should be a fractional trading method. I think the important thing in spot trading is how much you increase the number of coins (tokens). Of course, depending on the situation, it may be better to make cash profits. Since the coin market allows trading in decimal units, it is a useful investment market for increasing the number of coins (tokens). Therefore, we can increase the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to profits while conducting trading according to the basic trading strategy. That is, when the price rises by the purchase amount for each purchase price, sell it and leave the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to the profit. At this time, you should be careful to include the transaction fee in the purchase amount and sell it. The coins that are good for increasing the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to the profit rather than cash profit are BTC or ETH. Additionally, BNB is also possible. I think it is better to obtain cash profit if possible for the rest of the altcoins. However, if there is a coin (token) that you think you want to increase in the medium to long term, you can increase the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to the profit by increasing the number of coins (tokens). - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful transaction. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​This is an explanation of the big picture. (3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern) I will explain more details when the bear market starts. ------------------------------------------------------
by readCrypto
1
Tesla Still Slightly Bearish Until FED Cuts RatesOne of my followers asked, "how about now?" The question comes because he is bullish and I am sharing bearish charts. Here is the thing, the chart is still bearish of course because of the red candles and the double-top. This can't change unless the last high is broken with significant rising volume. I'll make it easy. This stock is likely to continue bearish until after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. When they lower the stuff, they do their magic their numbers then the market will turn bullish. So bearish before, bullish after. And this is a classic dynamic. The market goes through a retrace or correction preceding a major bullish development. Since the bullish development will definitely push prices up, the market must express its bearish tendencies before the event shows up. So bearish now. When the Fed announces that they are reducing interest rates later this month, then 100% bullish I agree of course. Thanks a lot for your continued support. This same analysis applies to Bitcoin and all related markets. The altcoins though are a different thing because these are smaller and already trading at bottom prices. They will recover sooner and will start moving ahead of the pack revealing what is coming to the bigger ones. All is good. Thank you for reading. Namaste.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by MasterAnanda
12
1️⃣ Bitcoin. Analysis of US Treasury DocumentsHello, crypto enthusiasts, decentralization adepts, and those who still believe in "financial freedom". Get ready, because what you are about to read might shatter your template, but it will clarify where your beloved market is heading. In June 2016, the blockchain world witnessed an unprecedented event – the hacking of The DAO , which called into question the fundamental principles of decentralization and smart contract security. This incident not only led to Ethereum's historic hard fork but also became a powerful impetus for the development of safer and more reliable solutions in DeFi and DAOs. This article is dedicated to that event. Now, we won't be talking here about "future technology," "blockchain revolution," or how your shitcoin will fly to the moon. No. First, we'll talk about how the "system" is preparing to digest and rebuild the crypto market to suit its needs, using everything from Forbes covers to global economic crises. Here, the author shares not just predictions, but presents in an accessible form a broad understanding of the interconnected global processes, where crypto is just one 🧩 puzzle piece of the overall picture of the future digital "brave new world" of cyberpunk . This scenario is not someone's wishful thinking, but the most plausible course of events. You may like it, you may not, it doesn't matter; what matters is what you will do with this information next. The article will be divided into three separate ideas: 1️⃣ Main Idea: Analysis of US Treasury Documents 2️⃣ Who's Next? Or: Operation "Saving Private Saylor" 3️⃣ Altcoins and the US Crypto Reserve Get ready, the article will intentionally be long to immediately filter out all "clip-thinking" gamblers. In general, everything as you love it, written with love in a rebellious style, with a 🤏"touch" of cynicism, sarcasm, and tragicomedy. If you are interested in continuing any of the topics, follow the links (which will be below), and then return to this root idea. So, let's go! 1️⃣ Main Idea: Bitcoin and Crypto. Analysis of US Treasury Documents For a long time, the world of cryptocurrencies was the "Wild West" – a place where anonymity, quick money, and the dream of complete independence from traditional banks and governments reigned. Bitcoin, with its idea of "digital gold," became a symbol of this freedom, promising refuge from inflation and manipulation by fiat currencies. But, as they say, the "Wild West" doesn't stay wild for long, especially when trillions of dollars and a threat to global financial stability – which is, of course, always "national" – loom on the horizon. It's no longer a secret that US authorities and major financial institutions are carefully studying and analyzing the digital asset market. In this article, we will uncover a multi-step scenario where the "invisible hand of the market" is actually controlled by quite visible structures. We will show how a series of seemingly independent events – from the media's "Forbes curse" to an inevitable financial crisis – perfectly fits into a plan to create a US "crypto-reserve" and fully integrate (read: subjugate) digital assets into the traditional, centralized financial system. Prepare for the harsh truth. This is not a story about crypto saving the world from fiat slavery. This is a story about how the fiat system, when faced with a challenge, adapts and absorbs the threat, using its own ideas. And, unfortunately for some, it will do so at the expense of those who believed in unlimited growth. Let's dive into the details of this cunning plan, where Michael Saylor is not just an investor, but a key figure in this spectacle of life unfolding before our eyes. 📜 Our "sacred scriptures" – this is an analysis of three crucial documents published on the US Treasury website: 1. The Future of Money and Payments (FM&P, September 2022): This is like Grandpa's first tentative step into using a smartphone. "Oh, what's this interesting thing you have here? Fast? Cheap? And here we old folks are still rustling with checks..." 2. Digital Assets and the Treasury Market (DA&TM, October 2024): Here Grandpa already figured out that the smartphone can count money. "So, these 'stablecoins' of yours – they're buying our bonds? That's even better than the Chinese!" 3. Digital Money (DM, April 2025): And here Grandpa is confidently tapping the screen and even seems to be trying to take a selfie. "Alright, stablecoins are our new MMFs, and if anything happens – I'll arrange a 'run' for you, like in 2008! And your Bitcoin is just 'digital gold' for nervous investors who run from our inflation to it, and then back to us for a hedge!" Forget about conspiracy theories – they're writing it themselves! Documents like those presented by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) clearly outline their views on "Digital Assets" and "Digital Money." In these reports, Bitcoin is no longer a "speculative toy," but a "store of value, aka 'digital gold' in the decentralized world of DeFi". And if it's "gold," then, by their logic, it should belong to the state, shouldn't it? Prepare yourselves, because today we're going to look under the hood of how serious gentlemen from the American financial elite suddenly "fell in love" with digital assets. ❓ So, what are these US financial authorities really trying to achieve? By studying and analyzing this open information, one can understand the scope and plans of the US financial elites. The main aspects extracted from those three documents are highlighted below: 1. The dollar is the world's drug, and we will control the dose, even in digital form! Stablecoins? They're our "digital servants"! In DA&TM and DM, they are no longer just "digital assets," but "ubiquitous cash on the blockchain". And most importantly – these naive crypto-enthusiasts (without even knowing it) are buying short-term US Treasury bonds as collateral! This is a goldmine! We're already printing debt, and now the crypto market is financing it. "Thank you for using our services to ensure your unstable stability!" "Wildcat banknotes" vs. "real dollar": DM doesn't hesitate to draw direct historical parallels. "Remember those 'wildcat banknotes' in the 1800s? Poorly collateralized, constant runs... And then the government came and said: 'Want reliability? Here's our dollar!'" It's the same story with stablecoins: "Your USDT and USDC are nice, of course, but only if they are 100% backed by our T-bills. Otherwise – no offense, but we remember the Terra/Luna story (and can repeat it if necessary), and you certainly don't need such happiness!" "Your 'stable' coins must be our stable coins!" DM explicitly states: "Stablecoins will be regulated as narrow banks or money market funds!" This means: no more shenanigans with 'algorithmic' wonder-coins, like Terra! Now you will be backed only by highly liquid, risk-free assets... guess which ones? That's right, our own, American Treasury bonds ! Hello, Tether, you are now officially our best client! "Our CBDC is not 'Bitcoin for the people,' but a 'prison blockchain' for control!" FM&P cautiously hints at CBDC as a "safe" alternative. But let's be honest: they don't just want a "convenient" digital currency. They want complete control. To know where every cent went, so that no Uncle Vasya can conduct a suspicious transaction without oversight. It's as if the NSA released its own crypto in 2008 – super-duper secure and decentralized, but every sneeze you make on the blockchain is recorded and tracked. 2. "We're for innovation! But only if it's on our platform, under our control, and preferably – on a private blockchain where you won't stick your curious nose!" "Blockchain is cool! But not the one you're on!" DA&TM clearly states: "Public, permissionless blockchains? Oh, no, that's a nightmare! Scalability is lame, security is questionable, and let's not even talk about money laundering! We don't want every John Doe to be able to anonymously transfer millions. We need 'private and permissioned blockchains' where we know who's doing what, and can control everything." "Tokenization is not a revolution, it's just a new Word for old documents!" Yes, they talk about "increasing efficiency" and "atomic settlements". But, in essence, they want to take their old, dusty Treasury bonds, slap a "token" on them and say: "Look, we're trendy too! Now you can 'instantly' exchange our bonds!" It's like buying a new iPhone but installing Windows 95 on it. Looks trendy, but works old-school. Tokenization of Treasury bonds is not for your pet hamster to buy a share in a T-bill, it's for "atomic settlements" and "improved collateral management" between large banks and institutions. If anything gets faster, it's their corporate ⚙️ gears, not your small transactions. 3. "Financial stability means your money is with us, not on some DeFi protocol!" "We remember 2008 and 2020! And your stablecoins are MMFs on steroids!" DM very clearly shows that "runs" on stablecoins are exactly the same as "runs" on money market funds during a crisis. And the consequences? "Fire sales" of Treasury bonds, falling prices, chaos. "So, folks, if you want to be 'stable,' be like our MMFs – backed only by our government's risk-free securities!" "Banks are sacred, and don't encroach on their deposits!" DM expresses unambiguous concern that these "interest-bearing stablecoins" could draw deposits away from banks. And this, begging your pardon, "could negatively affect banks' ability to attract deposits and make loans". That is, on bank profits. And we cannot allow that, because banks are the pillars of our system! Thus, the "US financial authorities" are not just a group of boring accountants. They are strategists who play the long game. They cannot (or do not want to) stop the crypto revolution, but they can direct it into a channel that is beneficial to them. They want to: "Regulate" stablecoins so they are simply a digital embodiment of their Treasury bonds. Use blockchain for their own infrastructure, but with such centralization and control that Satoshi Nakamoto would turn over in their anonymous grave. Ultimately, issue their own "digital dollar" (CBDC), which will be both "innovative" (in words) and "controlled" (in practice), so that no "private digital currency" infringes on their monopoly. This is not about "freedom," it's about "controlled dominance". They are not chasing the crypto train – they are buying it, repainting it in the colors of the American flag, renaming it the "Financial Stability Express," and selling tickets that you will buy with your own, strictly regulated, stablecoins. Our three documents are not just bureaucratic papers. They are, in essence, a strategic plan to "tame the beast" and redirect its energy in the right direction. Or, as some official would say, "optimization of national interests". And in our language – "how not to lose global financial hegemony while these hipsters play with their numbers". In the end, the US financial authorities are engaged in a kind of "digital colonialism". They cannot ignore blockchain and crypto, because it's no longer just "internet money for geeks," but a multi-trillion dollar market. Therefore, their goal is not to fight windmills, but to build their own, much more efficient windmills on the wind of digital innovations. And at the same time, ensure that all these windmills grind flour for their loaf of bread, that is, for the US dollar. They want you to continue using the dollar, even if it's "digital". They want your "stable" assets to generate income for them by buying their bonds. They want any "effective" blockchain solutions to be under their watchful eye, so that no one escapes into the "wild, unregulated" world of anonymity and decentralization. This is not about "freedom of financial innovation," it's about "innovation under strict supervision". Or, if you prefer, "controlled digital expansion". After all, what's the point of new technology if it doesn't serve the interests of good old hegemony? 🔍 Let's examine in more detail what is stated in the document: "Digital Money" (DM, April 2025). Or "The American Pump: Why Washington Wants 2 Trillion of Your 'Stablecoins' (and what they'll get for it)" Imagine, our bureaucratic friends from TBAC (a club of clever people who whisper with the US Treasury) held a secret meeting in April 2025. And what did they see there? A prophecy! 💥 A prophecy that the stablecoin market, currently hovering around $234 billion, will soar to $2 trillion by 2028! That's an 8.5x increase, if you can count! A typical crypto bro would say: "Whoa, pump! We're making x's!" But a serious uncle from the Treasury would say: "Excellent structural demand for our Treasury bonds! Finally, these 'digital monies' are working for us!" So, how is the US government going to arrange this "pump" without admitting it? 📝 The "Digital Milking Machine" Scenario (or why your stablecoin is their new wallet): "Our Dollar – Your Problem!" ▫️ "Stablecoins? They're our best friends!" At first, they frowned, saying, "anonymous, decentralized, risky." But then they saw that 99% of stablecoins are just digital dollars, pegged to their own paper! And they are used as "cash on the blockchain," meaning people in the crypto world are already actively using them. "Aha," they thought, "so the world has already accepted our dollar in digital form, even without our direct involvement. Excellent! Now we need to ride this and monetize it." ▫️ "Hey, stablecoins, buy more of our bonds!" The cherry on top from DA&TM: "Stablecoins hold $120 billion in Treasury bonds!" And if the market grows to $2 trillion, imagine: how much will that be in our precious, ever-deficient T-bills? It's just a celebration! "Please, keep issuing your stablecoins, the more the better! And we will give you paper with interest. And you, naive ones, will think it's 'collateral,' and we will think it's 'a new source of financing our debt'!" "Regulation is Love (for our interests)!" ▫️ "We will regulate you to death... so you can be 'stable'!" TBAC explicitly states: "If history teaches anything, stablecoins must be regulated like 'narrow banks' or 'money market funds'". This is not for your safety, folks, it's for theirs. "We don't want you playing with 'algorithmic stability' and crashing markets like Terra/Luna. No, no, now you will walk the line, backing every dollar of yours with OUR Treasury bonds. Because only that is 'real' risk-free collateral, right?" ▫️ "But your 'interest-bearing' stablecoins... we don't really like them!" Why? Because they can "compete with bank deposits" and "undermine banks' ability to make loans". That is, if your stablecoins start earning you real interest, you'll run from the banks! And that's an assault on the sacred. "Propaganda for 'Tokenization' is a new 'quantum leap' (for our national debt)!" ▫️ "Tokenization? What's that? Oh, it's just our new way to sell bonds!" FM&P and DA&TM talk about "increasing efficiency of clearing and settlement" through tokenization. Sounds boring, but the meaning is this: "We want to make our national debt even more liquid and accessible. If these crypto-guys love tokens so much, then let our bonds be tokens too! And then, who knows, retail might follow, through these 'tokenized Treasury bond funds'!" ▫️ "Forget 'decentralization' for bonds, that's only for 'us'!" DA&TM clearly states: "Public blockchains are garbage for Treasury bonds". They need "private, permissioned blockchains". This means: "Blockchain is cool, but only if it's controlled by us, our banks, and you sit there like mice and don't make a peep. No anonymous movements!" So yes, the US government will indeed "pump" the crypto market, but not in the way you think. It won't buy Bitcoin or Ethereum (at least not openly). It will "pump" the stablecoin market because it's: A brilliant way to finance its own national debt by attracting capital from the crypto world. An ideal tool to expand the global influence of the dollar, making it convenient "digital cash" in decentralized ecosystems, but under its control. A method of "taming" the wild crypto-west, forcing it to play by its rules of financial stability, lest any glitch should harm their "traditional" system. It's as if a casino decided to "pump" its players by saying: "We'll let you play with chips that are backed by our own debts. The more chips you make, the more of our debts you buy! And if your chips crash, that's your problem, because we warned you it was 'risky'!" So, yes, expect stablecoin capitalization to grow by at least $2 trillion by 2028. 🎮 All right, if you want to delve deeper into these documents yourself, follow the links above, and we'll move on. Now let's play a guessing game with you. The task: by elimination, figure out who on this list are "their guys" for the US government, who is a "stranger," and who cannot be touched, and who can or even should (from the US perspective) be "taken advantage of"? 📊 Largest Known BTC Holders (as of May 2025): 1. US Government: ~200,000 BTC (confiscated during investigations) 2. Satoshi Nakamoto: ~1.1 million BTC (not moved since mining) 3. BlackRock (iShares Bitcoin Trust - IBIT): ~650,000 BTC 4. Fidelity (Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund - FBTC): >200,000 BTC 5. MicroStrategy (MSTR): ~576,000 BTC (as of May 2025) 6. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC): ~187,000 BTC (outflows occurring) 7. Coinbase (reserves): >600,000 BTC (exchange balance, including client funds) 8. Binance (reserves): >500,000 BTC (exchange balance, including client funds) 9. Bitfinex (reserves): ~400,000 BTC (exchange balance, including client funds) 10. Gemini (reserves): >127,000 BTC (balance including client funds) 11. Tether (USDT, own reserves): ~100,000 BTC (in addition to fiat reserves) 🧮 Who are "their guys" and who is a "stranger"? Distribution of influence in the crypto market. In the grand game for control over the future financial landscape, especially in the digital asset sphere, the US government and its affiliated traditional financial institutions act strategically. Their goal is not to destroy cryptocurrencies, but to integrate and subjugate them on their own terms , creating a "National Crypto Reserve" and a new, controlled digital financial infrastructure. This process implies a clear distinction: who is "one of us" (a useful or tamed element of the system), and who is a "target" (a source of assets or a potential object for threat elimination). There are also unique cases that fall outside this dichotomy. Let's analyze the list of the largest BTC holders as of May 2025 from this perspective: "Their Guys" (fully integrated, tamed, or cooperating): These players are already deeply embedded in the traditional US financial system or are actively striving for full regulatory compatibility. For the US government, they are either direct partners or "tamed" assets that contribute to achieving strategic goals. They are not touched, but used as tools or components. 1. US Government (~200,000 BTC): Status: absolute "their guy" and main player. They are the ones who will "take advantage" of others. They are the ones who set the rules and collect dividends. Their Bitcoins are confiscated assets, a "free" replenishment of the future "National Crypto Reserve". 2. BlackRock (iShares Bitcoin Trust - IBIT: ~650,000 BTC) and Fidelity (Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund - FBTC: >200,000 BTC): Status: key institutional "their guys" from traditional finance. These are Wall Street giants who have received SEC approval for their spot Bitcoin ETFs. Their massive BTC accumulations are not speculation, but a strategic integration of cryptocurrencies into the existing system. They act as main gateways for institutional capital, channeling it into a regulated stream. They are actively involved in shaping the new financial architecture, for example, BlackRock with the BUIDL fund for tokenized Treasury bonds, which fully aligns with the TBAC vision. They cannot be touched; they are part of the control mechanism. 3. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC: ~187,000 BTC): Status: tamed "their guy." After the trust's conversion to an ETF and massive outflows, GBTC came under direct SEC control. Despite asset losses, the remaining assets are now in a regulated product. Grayscale was forced to fully adapt to the system's rules. There's no need to touch it – it's already in the system. 4. Coinbase (reserves: >600,000 BTC): Status: key "their guy" in the US crypto market. This is the largest regulated American crypto exchange that actively cooperates with authorities. Coinbase serves as the "main entrance" for retail and institutional investors in the US. Its transparency and compliance make it indispensable for the system as a tool for data collection and control over fund movements. It will not be touched, but will be used as part of the regulated infrastructure. 5. Tether (USDT, own reserves: ~100,000 BTC): Status: "tamed" and useful "their guy." Tether, being the largest holder of US Treasury bonds, is already deeply integrated into the financial system. The system does not seek to destroy it, but to fully subjugate it to regulatory control. For the government, it is a source of demand for their debt (Treasury bonds) and a potential tool for controlling digital flows. It will be "regulated" in the sense of "finally brought to heel," so that it becomes absolutely transparent and controllable, essentially a private digital dollar under supervision. (See DA&TM pp. 4, 17, 25). 6. Bitfinex (reserves: ~400,000 BTC): Status: "their guy" through affiliation with Tether. Since Tether is already recognized as "their guy" and is under regulatory pressure, its affiliated structures, such as Bitfinex, also automatically fall under this logic. If Tether is "tamed," then Bitfinex, as part of the same ecosystem and holding significant assets, will also be forced to comply with the same standards of transparency and compliance. This is not a "stranger" in the full sense, but rather a "younger brother" controlled through the elder. 7. Binance (reserves: >500,000 BTC): Status: already "regulated." Lawsuits, multi-billion dollar fines, and CZ's removal are classic examples of how the system forced the largest global, but previously less regulated, player into submission. Now Binance, although still a powerful force, is forced to operate within the given rules. It no longer needs to be "touched" in the same sense – it has been "tamed" and included in the sphere of influence. 8. Gemini (reserves: >127,000 BTC): Status: "their guy," but with caveats. Gemini is an American exchange actively striving for compliance. Despite past regulatory difficulties (e.g., with the Earn program), it remains part of the regulated American crypto infrastructure. It will be used to control flows, but also kept under constant supervision. Neutral Player (not participating in the game): This anonymous entity is outside the system of control and is neither "their guy" nor a "target" in the traditional sense. Satoshi Nakamoto (~1.1 million BTC): Status: Neutral, not participating in the game, and untouchable. These Bitcoins remain untouched and symbolize true decentralization and uncontrollability. The US government cannot touch them , unless "Satoshi" himself decides to move funds to a regulated platform or an incredible cryptographic vulnerability is found. So, the only major target that can be 'taken advantage of' is, 🥁 drumroll: Micro Strategy (MSTR: ~576,000 BTC) Status: 🎯 Main Target. Although Michael Saylor is a prominent Bitcoin supporter, and Micro Strategy is a public company, their aggressive accumulation strategy (often through debt) makes them extremely vulnerable to the price of Bitcoin. In the event of a serious market crash, Micro Strategy will face enormous pressure (margin calls, debt obligations). In such a scenario, their significant assets could become targets for forced liquidation or acquisition by organizations with deeper pockets and government backing. Their "high-beta" nature (as described in TBAC documents) makes them vulnerable. For the continuation of Michael's story, see the separately published idea: 2️⃣ Operation: "Saving Private Saylor." Or how Uncle Sam "nationalizes" Bitcoin while Michael is busy with micro-strategies. 🎼 "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes" – and for Michael Saylor, this rhyme echoes with unsettling persistence. In 2000, he, the shining dot-com hero, faced the prose of numbers when the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) knocked on his door . The overstatement of revenue by MarginCallStrategy MicroStrategy and non-compliance with "Generally Accepted Accounting Principles" (GAAP) – all this led to a restatement of financial results and a stock collapse of -60% in a day, and then almost -90% in a few weeks. But this episode was just the first line in a long poem. Two decades later, Michael Saylor re-emerged on the scene, now as a prophet of "digital gold," transforming his company into the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. His passionate belief in decentralization and the unique nature of BTC is striking. He claims that Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation, an eternal store of value, immune to the manipulations of the fiat system. But the louder his sermons about Bitcoin, the more they rhyme with the past: excessive confidence, public bravado, and disregard for fundamental risks. History does not repeat itself literally, but it rhymes. Michael Saylor in 2000 and Michael Saylor today are two lines of the same poem, where the final chord will belong not to "digital gold" in its pristine, decentralized form, but to "tokenized government bonds" and CBDCs, which will become the foundation of a new, controlled financial order. Bitcoin, of course, will survive another -70% collapse, but in a completely new role that better suits Washington's needs than the dreams of crypto-anarchists. Let's delve deeper. To avoid overloading the article, it has been decided to publish the section on altcoins and the scenario for replenishing the US "Crypto-Reserve" separately from the main root idea. If you are interested in learning how the government intends to make the US the "crypto capital of the world," and the fate of altcoins with a forecast for 2025-2028, follow the link: 3️⃣ Altcoins and the US "Crypto-Reserve" Excellent, let's continue. Now we are on the home stretch! Connecting all the dots: the Forbes curse, the inevitable crash, the insidious plans of the US government, and finally, the final mega-pump. Washington's Grand Crypto-Gambit: How they will crash the market to orchestrate a 'Final Pump' (and why they need your altcoins at dirt-cheap prices for this) My previously published basic crypto forecast is not just relevant – it is becoming even more ominously realistic; it's just (as usual) slightly shifted in time. Because the "big guys" in Washington are not some Elon Musks who pump with tweets. They work on a schedule, and their schedule is called "global economic recession," which the Democrats have stubbornly delayed until Trump's presidency since 2023. ◻️ Part 1: "Pre-Pump Cleanse" – Why a crash is coming (and why Bitcoin won't hold up either) 2025-2026. While you rejoice that Bitcoin is demonstrating "phenomenal resilience," trading around $75,000 - $100,000 (thanks to Bitcoin ETFs and migrating Chinese, at least some demand!), I'll tell you straight - it's an illusion. It's like the last dance before the fall. ▫️Bitcoin – king, but on a shaky throne: Yes, demand from ETFs and "fleeing capital" from China have kept the price around $100k for the last three quarters. But, let me remind you what TBAC said (and that, by the way, is the voice of the Treasury!): Bitcoin is a "high-beta asset." This means it amplifies market movements. If the stock market sneezes pretty hard (down -30-40%), Bitcoin will catch pneumonia (down -60-70%). ▫️Alts – it's already a "bloodbath": While Bitcoin is setting its historical highs (essentially drawn on the enthusiasm of new funds), alts are already howling in pain. The altcoin index CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS is already -40% lower since the beginning of the year, with its capitalization falling from $450 billion to $260 billion. The Impending (US-Managed) Armageddon in the Markets: "Debt market? What's that?" The absence of buyers in the debt market (hello, USA, Japan, EU!) – this is not just a "small problem," it's a systemic crack. Who will finance all these government expenditures if no one wants to buy bonds? "Liquidity? What liquidity?" The liquidity problems in the global "Eurodollar" financial system are no longer a joke. When the world's largest financial arteries become clogged, blood stops flowing. US stock market (SP500 and NDQ100) crash of -30-50% from their ATH in 2025. This is not just a "scare," it's a controlled demolition of an old building to construct a new one. And in the still "very small cryptocurrency market" (by traditional market standards, of course), this will result in a further -60-80% drop from current levels! Buckle up, Bitcoin to $30,000 - $50,000! Yes, my forecast is harsh, but realistic. Before a new phase of growth for the entire cryptocurrency market (yes, not just Bitcoin, but your beloved altcoins too), we are obliged to see a final sell-off. ◻️ Part 2: "Final Pump: When Uncle Sam Becomes Your Crypto-Manager" (2026-2028) This is where it gets really interesting. After the market is flushed out, "weak hands" are eliminated, and Michael Saylor's (and many others') "digital gold" is "nationalized" at a bargain price, they will enter the stage – the US authorities. "Our dollar – your digital wallet!" Remember TBAC's forecasts that the stablecoin market will grow to $2 trillion by 2028? This is no coincidence. It's a plan. They don't want to "pump" Bitcoin; they want to "pump" their stablecoins, which, of course, will be 100% backed by their own Treasury bonds. This is the ideal mechanism for financing their bottomless debt! "Regulation? No, it's controlled growth!" They will "regulate" the market to make it safe... for them. Stablecoins will become "narrow banks," and private blockchains – "permissioned." This means: "Use our 'digital currency' (stablecoins), buy our bonds with them, and everything will be fine. And if you want 'innovations,' only on our centralized infrastructure!" "Tokenization of all America": When traditional markets are in ruins, they will announce a "new era" – the era of tokenization! Tokenized Treasury bonds (convenient for buying with your stablecoins!), tokenized stocks (after the crash, they will become very "attractive" for buying via blockchain!), tokenized real estate... And all this under the supervision of "reliable" centralized structures. "Final explosive growth" (under control): It is precisely this controlled growth, this inflow of liquidity through stablecoins and the tokenization of traditional assets, provoked and financed by the US authorities, that will be the "final explosive growth" for the entire crypto market in 2027-2028. Crypto will grow not because it is "decentralized," but because it has finally been "tamed" and integrated into the global financial system, but on Big Brother's terms. 📉 Periodic Crashes – A Tool for Capital Redistribution Many current fresh gamblers "investors" don't understand a simple thing: periodic crashes in financial markets, be it stocks or cryptocurrencies, are not a "bug" or an accident, but a built-in "feature" of the system itself. This is a powerful tool for redistributing capital, constantly transferring wealth from some to others. At each turn of the economic cycle, when "bubbles" inflate (be it dot-coms, mortgages, or crypto), and then deflate with a resounding crash, a massive redistribution of wealth occurs. This is not a natural disaster, but rather a well-oiled mechanism. Accumulation of assets by "dumb money": During periods of rapid growth, when markets are overheated and assets are rising rapidly, "dumb money" enters the game – that is, ordinary retail investors, small speculators, newcomers without a deep understanding of risks. Inspired by stories of successful success and the fear of missing out (FOMO), they pour their savings into the market at its peak, often using borrowed funds or buying the most volatile and overpriced assets. They buy "hype," not value. It is here that MicroStrategy, aggressively buying Bitcoin with borrowed funds, becomes a symbol of this vulnerability, albeit on a larger scale. Shaking out weak hands: For the "system," there are two main methods to get rid of "excess passengers" and "weak hands" in the market. The first is sharp, panic-driven crashes, when fear forces investors to sell assets at a loss, just to "get out of the game." The second, no less effective, is the exhaustion of enthusiasm over time (prolonged periods of stagnation). These are months or even years of boring "sideways" trading (trading in a narrow range) or slow but steady price declines. At such moments, the belief in quick profits fades, and investors, especially those who invested in altcoins without fundamental understanding, lose patience and leave, abandoning their assets at throwaway prices. Both methods effectively "clear out" inexperienced or insufficiently patient participants. Creating "liquidity" for institutions: Crashes and price declines, as well as periods of stagnation, create what is called "liquidity" – an opportunity for large players to buy assets at significantly discounted prices. When the market is "bleeding," or when "hamsters" get tired of waiting and sell everything in despair, that's the "meat" that the "falling knife" provides for "smart money." Benefits for "smart money": Giants like BlackRock, Fidelity, Vanguard, or legendary investors like Warren Buffett, do not invest in "hype." They create trends and wait. They possess enormous capital reserves, access to insider information (analytics, government plans, such as TBAC documents), and, most importantly, iron discipline and patience. They do not succumb to panic; they create it when needed! When markets are bleeding and "ordinary mortals" sell everything in a panic, these "sharks" of the financial world go hunting, buying quality assets (be it stocks, real estate, or even Bitcoin, which is already recognized as "digital gold" in certain circles) at prices inaccessible to small players. Centralization of wealth: As a result of each such cycle, a further centralization of wealth occurs. Capital flows from less informed, less disciplined, and more emotional market participants to those who play by the rules of the "big game," having access to resources, analytics, and, possibly, even a certain influence on the system itself. Market crashes are not system errors, but its key redistribution function, allowing capital to remain in the hands of the elite and constantly increasing their share of the overall wealth pie. This is a brutal but extremely effective mechanism of "natural selection" in the world of finance. And these are not some "conspiracy theories" but the harsh truth, whether someone likes it or not. According to 2022 data, people with capital over $1 million, making up only 1.1% of the world's population, own ~50% of the world's wealth, while the richest 12.2% of people own over 85%. At the same time, the poorest 55% of the planet's population controls only 1.3% of the world's wealth. Between these two poles, about half of the global wealth is (for now) dispersed. And in 2026-2028, you will have the last chance to enter this "middle class," which is systematically being destroyed by those at the top of the pyramid. ✴️ Your place in the "New World Crypto-Order" (or why freedom is an illusion) We live in an era when even the seemingly most "decentralized" and "independent" market, like crypto, ultimately finds itself under the close scrutiny of those who hold the strings of the global financial system. Documents like TBAC (which you will hopefully now read with double attention) are not just bureaucratic reports; they are roadmaps to how "Big Brother" intends to integrate, and essentially subordinate, the "wild" world of digital assets to its interests. So, we have established that: The upcoming stock market crash and, consequently, crypto crash in 2025-2026 – this is not just an "unexpected market correction," but an inevitable managed stage of "cleansing" that will allow the "system" to get rid of "weak hands" and acquire assets at a discount. Your altcoins, which are already bleeding, will become even cheaper before they are picked up by those who know what they are doing. "Pump" of stablecoins to at least $2 trillion by 2028 – this is not a sign of your victory, but a brilliant way for the US government to find a new, bottomless source of financing for its ever-growing national debt. Your "stable" money will become their "stable" bonds, as most stablecoins, especially USDT and USDC, are backed by US Treasury bonds, which creates direct and massive demand for US debt obligations. "Continued growth of stablecoins... will create structural demand for short-term US Treasury obligations." (DA&TM, p. 16) The narrative "Bitcoin – digital gold" – this is not just a marketing ploy by crypto enthusiasts, but a convenient concept that the government can use to "nationalize" large crypto assets at a bargain price and use them for its own benefit. The hidden, but key goal of this narrative is to create a new, global tool for absorbing and refinancing part of the colossal US national debt. The higher the recognition and price of "digital gold" controlled by the state, the more financial leverage it will gain to manage its obligations, turning a decentralized asset into a new pillar of the fiat system . ❓ What does this mean for us, mere mortals, trapped in this crypto-matrix? This means that the next six months are a time not for euphoria and not for buying a "strategic reserve," but for strategic retreat and patient waiting. While "Big Brother" squeezes the market and prepares for the "nationalization" of crypto assets through defaults and margin calls, we should: Keep a finger on the pulse of the global economy: Attention to the debt market, Eurodollar liquidity problems, and the predicted stock market crash in 2025 – this is not background noise, these are the main indicators of the upcoming "cleansing." Forget about FOMO for Bitcoin at $100k: These are just the death throes of a "bull market," supported by artificial demand. The target range of $30-50k is an entry point that "their boys" are preparing for themselves. Aim for altcoins: Your favorite altcoins, which have already fallen by -40% since the beginning of the year and still have room to fall (by -60-80% from current levels) – this is where the real "bloody auction" will be. It is these assets that, after the crash, will become most attractive to those who understand what will follow the market "cleansing" and which coins will end up in that very US "crypto-reserve." 🏁 Final Act: Controlled Explosive Growth (2026-2028) When the dust settles, and Michael Saylor's (and many others') Bitcoins are in the hands of the "State Crypto-Reserve" at a large discount, the real "pump" will begin. But this will not be a pump of "decentralization" or "freedom." This will be controlled, institutional, government-funded growth, based on: Excess liquidity created by banksters. Growth in the broad cryptocurrency market, especially on such a massive scale, is impossible without an influx of "cheap" money into the global financial system. For this excess liquidity to appear, appropriate conditions must be created: low-interest rates (close to zero) and a reactivated "printing press" (Quantitative Easing – QE). To achieve this, the stock market (and, consequently, the traditional economy) must first be sharply crashed to force the Fed to abruptly "change course" and begin "saving" the economy by injecting trillions of dollars into the system. This "flood" of liquidity will be the fuel for a new wave of crypto market growth, but strictly under the control of their guys institutions. Trillions of stablecoins, backed by US national debt. These stablecoins, as we already understand, create structural demand for short-term US Treasury obligations, becoming a powerful tool for managing national debt. Mass tokenization of traditional assets on "private, permissioned blockchains" managed by banksters. This will create huge new markets and capital flows that will be controlled by their players. And, of course, a legitimized Bitcoin as "digital gold," which will now be in safe government hands, not with some "alchemists" or "micro-strategists." 💡 Be smart, not emotional. The cryptocurrency market – is not just a set of charts and technologies. It's a battlefield where the interests of decentralization and centralized control clash. In the coming years, we will see how the last "wild" frontier of digital assets will be integrated into the traditional financial system. Your task is to understand this scenario, step aside while the "elephants dance," and prepare to enter when "blood is flowing in the streets." Only then will you be able to become part of this final explosive growth, which, ironically, will be provoked and financed by the very forces that are now trying to herd crypto into a corral. ⚠️ See you in 2026! And remember: knowledge and understanding – this is your only superpower in this zero-sum game, as everyone, to the extent of their understanding, works for themselves, and to the extent of their misunderstanding – for those who know and understand more. 🚀 As a token of gratitude, don't forget to hit the rocket under this unique work. 🙏 Thank you for your attention. 📟 Stay in touch.
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by T_A_R_A_S