BITCOIN facing the most important Roadblock of the Cycle.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) reached $112000 yesterday, testing the May 22 2025 All Time High (ATH) and immediately got rejected. This ATH rejection is key to the continuation of the bullish trend as the entirety of the ATH Resistance Zone is perhaps the last (and most important) Roadblock before the final rally of the Cycle that could potentially price the new Top.
You can see that this Resistance Zone already had 3 rejections previous on its bottom and yesterday was the first one on its top.
A break above it can target $118400 at least within days, in anticipation of a +10.20% Bullish Leg, similar to the one following the June 22 Low.
If the rejection prevails however, we may see a pull-back that will test the bottom of the (blue) Channel Up.
Which scenario do you think will prevail? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin-btcusd-btc
BITCOIN hit new ATH above $118k and isn't stopping there!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke above its previous All Time High (ATH) Zone and the buying pressure accelerated so much that it even crossed above the $118k level early in the E.U. session.
Technically the bullish trend doesn't seem to stop there as following the Bull Flag (we've analyzed this extensively the previous days) break-out of mid-May to June, the long-term Bullish Leg that started on the April 07 2025 bottom, is looking now for its 2nd Phase (extension).
Based on the previous two Bullish Legs since 2024, we should be expecting at least a +91.12% rise from the April bottom, as so far the symmetry among all three fractals is remarkable. Equally strong Bearish Legs (around -32%) of roughly 112 days each, gave way to the Bullish Legs, which supported by the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) pushed the market higher.
If this pattern continues to be replicated, we should expect this Leg to peak a little over $140000 before the next correction.
Do you think we'll get there? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Epic Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
BITCOIN is trading in an
Uptrend and the coin made
An epic bullish breakout
Of an ATH level of 112k$
Which reinforces our bullish
Bias and we will be expecting
A further bullish move up
Buy!
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BITCOIN Is there enough time for another parabolic rally?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is practically consolidating on the short-term, having just recently been rejected off its new All Time High (ATH). Despite the short-term volatility, the long-term outlook is still a very strong, structured uptrend, a Channel Up pattern that is now technically aiming for its next Higher High.
Incredibly enough, this Channel Up since the November 2022 market bottom, has been almost entirely within the Buy Zone (green) of the Fibonacci Channel Up going back all the way to April 2013!
As you can see during the previous two Cycles, every time BTC got above that Buy Zone, it started a parabolic rally. So far, we haven't got such rally on the current Cycle and with time running out (assuming the 4-year Cycle model continues to hold), do you think we will get one this time around?
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Short-term Target = $117kBitcoin (BTCUSD) is coming off a 4H Golden Cross, attempting to hold the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as its short-term Support. The early hours of the E.U. session today show that this might be a difficult task, however comparison with May's Bullish Leg, gives positive signs.
Almost the entire month of May sequence has been an uptrend, which looks very similar to today's. Almost identical rises from their bottoms (+13.60% against +12.60%) until the first top, with similar 4H RSI fractals also, we can expect the current uptrend to make a second top soon near the 1.5 Fibonacci extension at $117000.
Are you expecting such an outcome in the coming days? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Golden Cross going to slingshot it to $130kBitcoin (BTCUSD) has completed a Golden Cross on the 4H time-frame and is attempting to keep the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support. If successful, it has high probabilities of staging a Channel Up similar to April - May, which peaked on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension.
So far, the bases of those to fractals are virtually identical, with a Lower Highs trend-line initially acting as a Resistance, which broke and on the current one it is testing the final Resistance (dotted trend-line).
This is the green circle, which on April 21 staged a quick consolidation before breaking aggressively upwards. If the pattern continues to repeat itself, we can get $130k (Fib 2.618 ext) at the end of the Channel Up.
Do you think it will? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN STRONG RESISTANCE AHEAD|SHORT|
✅BITCOIN is going up now
But a strong resistance level is ahead at 112,000$
Which is also an All-Time-High
Thus I am expecting a pullback
And a move down towards the target of 107,300$
SHORT🔥
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BITCOIN Bull Cycle's next two probable stops..Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within a 2.5-year Channel Up throughout the entirety of its 2023 - 2025 Bull Cycle, showcasing incredible consistency. This is perhaps BTC's most stable Bull Cycle and that can help us estimate to some degree its next two key levels, before its tops.
As you can see, every major Higher High of this pattern has been either on or marginally above a +0.5 Fibonacci interval:
Fib 0.5 was the February 2023 High and Accumulation Phase.
Fib 1.0 the April - September 2023 Accumulation.
Fib 1.5 December 2023 - January 2024.
Fib 2.0 March - September 2024.
Fib 2.5 December 2024 - February 2025.
Right now the market seems to be attempting a break-out above a Bull Flag, following the massive April 07 2025 rebound on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), a level that has been the most optimal buy entry in the past 2 years.
The next stop based on this model is the 3.0 Fibonacci extension level at 133000, where there are high probabilities for the market to consolidate (accumulation phase) in preparation for perhaps the final stop and Cycle peak on the 3.5 Fib ext around 191000. As we've discussed on previous analyses, a final Target between those two around $150000 may be more fitting, carrying less risk into the final months of the Bull Cycle.
So what do you think? Do you believe that's the blueprint to follow until the end of the year/ Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Can this Inverse Head and Shoulders deliver $168000?We saw yesterday how Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within a short-term Channel Down pattern, which as mentioned was just a Bull Flag on the long-term scale.
Today we examine this on the longer term time-frame and what stands out on 1D is an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S). Such patterns are incredibly bullish but are more often seen on market bottoms initiating strong long-term bullish reversals.
This time it has been formed on a 1W Bull Cycle uptrend (Channel Up), so it technically serves as a (very) long-term Accumulation Phase between the Cycle's previous All Time High (ATH) and the next one, which most likely will be the final (peak) of the Bull Cycle.
As mentioned numerous times in the past, IH&S patterns target their 2.0 Fibonacci extension level once broken. That is now at $168000 and falls well within the broader 150 - 200k range that most studies have as a potential Cycle Top.
So do you think that is realistic to expect? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD: $150,000 on a repetitive pattern.Bitcoin is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.823, MACD = 486.400, ADX = 23.402) possibly going through the last consolidation before the next breakout to a new ATH. The whole 2023-2025 Bull Cycle has been on a repetitive pattern, bottoming on the HL Zone and peaking on the HH trendline, while forming clear wave structures. According to this, the next HH should be around 150,000 (TP).
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Bitcoin: Bearish Signal Watch 107,400 To Confirm.Bitcoin bearish pin bar developing, which is a bearish sign at least for the short term. IF this candle closes and low is compromised, (107,400?) A sell signal will be in effect (see arrow). This will also confirm a failed break out (see trend line) of a multi month consolidation. The signal in question is an ideal setup for swing traders or day traders looking for aggressive shorts, while the broader trend is completely intact. A reasonable price objective for such a move is the 103K area which is basically the mid point of the consolidation and near the 102 to 100K support. While the market can potentially break lower than that, there is NO way to forecast such an event. Market confirms first, then expectations can be adjusted effectively.
The wave count has been adjusted on this chart. The current consolidation is likely the sub wave 4 of the broader 5 which means implies the trend is still bullish since the sub wave 5 of 5 is not in play yet. Maybe after this next retrace? The next bullish setup (around 103K?) may present a high probability swing trade opportunity on the long side possible over the next week or two.
Keep in mind, it is not a good idea to get married to any opinions. I don't care how bullish the fundamentals are, all it takes is an unexpected catalyst and this market retraces hard. A week ago we were flirting with 98K, today 108K. Levels and price action are a much more accurate gauge of where the market is likely to go on the short term, and more importantly offer greater insight into the potential reward and RISK.
I adjust my outlook constantly because I know that the MARKET is ALWAYS right. It offers guidance if you know how to listen and be flexible. "Outlook" can be categorized by time which helps to keep expectations inline with market intent. For example, reward and risk expectations for a swing trade (4H time frame) will be smaller compared to a position entered for investment (weekly time frame). Keeping these expectations separate will help you control risk in a much more optimal way compared to having a swing trade turn into an investment.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BTCUSD: Hasn't gone parabolic yet.Bitcoin is just now re-entering the bullish state on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 55.820, MACD = 291.960, ADX = 15.180), being correcting/consolidating in the past 30 days. According to the Mayer Multiple Bands, it's stil inside the range (upper band) of the 1 Stdev Below-Mean-1 Stdev Above (yellow range). This suggest significant upside potential as being roughly 19 weeks before the Cycle tops, it matches the late June 2021 bottom inside that zone as well as the July 2017 bottom just over the top of that zone. The orange trendline has been the minimum target on every Cycle but looks unlikely to hit it by the end of the year. If however it goes parabolic as all Cycles had at this stage, $200,000 isn't at all far fetched before the Cycle tops.
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BITCOIN Just wait until OIL turns bullish!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has a unique long-term relationship/ correlation with WTI Oil (USOIL) and this charts shows why.
In the past 11 years, when Oil started to decline sharply, Bitcoin formed a market bottom before Oil did. When Oil started to rise again, Bitcoin was out of its bottom and has initiated its Parabolic Rally stage (green Rectangle). Then Oil peaked after BTC has already priced its own Cycle Top.
Based on this correlation, we can assume that we haven't yet seen BTC's Parabolic stage as Oil hasn't yet started to rise. If we assume that the late April Low on Oil was its market bottom, then only now it has started its rise, so at best BTC has just started the Cycle's Parabolic Rally. If that turns out o be true, then the upside potential is huge for BTC. Needless to say other key macroeconomic factors have to assist e.g. higher adoption, ETF inflows, FED Rate Cut, but that's what the current chart says!
So do you think that Oil can be the driver behind a new Bitcoin parabolic rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Cup & Handle completed! Technical Target $169k!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is about to complete the Handle of a Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern. This comes only days after breaking below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) buy holding the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and rebounding.
Well the 1D MA50 has been recovered and on top of that, the 1D MACD just formed a Bullish Cross. This (isolated) Bull Flag, which is the Handle, technically targets the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at $169000.
Do you think that's realistic or a little excessive within thin time-frame? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Major Pivot bounce eyes $140000!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has started off the week with a huge 1W candle bounce on the former Lower Highs trend-line (that started on its All Time High), which has now turned into a Pivot. That trend-line held both last week and 3 weeks ago.
The very same Pivot test took place (October 2024) at the start of the previous Bullish Leg, resulting into a massive rebound that peaked upon a +108.08% rise. That was even higher than the Bullish Leg before it (+92.12%), which also started after a 1.5 month consolidation (Dec 2023 - Jan 2024).
Interestingly enough those Legs show an amazing frequency as the Time Cycles show on their bottoms. Assuming the current Bullish Leg will follow the 'bad case' scenario of +92.12%, we should be expecting to see at least $140000 before the next pull-back/ consolidation.
Do you think such Target is feasible by the end of August? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Is this just a giant Bull Flag??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) saw a strong sell-off yesterday in the aftermath of the U.S. strike in Iran and fears of retaliation, but in later hours recovered some of the lost ground. The recovery is being extended into the Asian and early E.U. hours today and the emerging Channel Down pattern already draws strong similarities with the one in December 17 2024 - January 13 2025.
Both broke below their respective 1D MA50 (blue trend-lines) to form a Lower Low, which in the case of Jan 2025, it initiated a rebound that tested the All Time High (ATH) Resistance. See also how similar their 1D RSI patterns are, testing the same Support level too (41.20).
Given that this time the uptrend has been much shorter since the April 07 2025 Low, this Channel Down may be nothing but a giant Bull Flag in the middle of a standard Bull Cycle Leg. Until confirmed with a 1W candle closing above the ATH Resistance though, the medium-term Target is $111900.
Notice also the formation today of a 1D MA100/200 Bullish Cross, the first since November 13 2024.
So what do you think? Is $111900 your short-term Target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Break: Watch 100K Revesal Or Test Of 95K.Bitcoin broke 100K support without any type of retrace attempt (YET). This move which is attributed to global events should not be entirely surprising. Most importantly do not OVERREACT, especially with all the nonsense hype this will generate. Here is a more effective way to process the current situation.
Avoid bias and pay attention to the bigger picture. In terms of wave count, Bitcoin can technically retest the 85K area and STILL be considered within a broader Wave 4. This implies the broader structure is still BULLISH (Wave 1 overlap). A swing trade or investing buying opportunity can develop in the 95K area or lower (see illustration).
The short term momentum is bearish as per break of 100K. This should guide shorter time frame strategies like day trades. A new bearish trend line is in play (see arrow). At this point without any meaningful reversal pattern in play (4H or above) look for bearish continuation patterns like consolidations (triangles) inside bars, etc. The 95K support would be a price objective to consider if you are open to aggressive short strategies. Keep in mind, shorting into such a low is HIGHLY risky and best suited for those who have adequate experience.
This situation proves once again, "expert" opinions mean nothing. A few short weeks ago, Bitcoin was poised to break out and everyone was going to be rich again (remember the Bitcoin conference?). So much for that. The market does NOT care what you, me or Michael Saylor thinks. It reflects the perception of the future, whether or not that future plays out.
This is precisely why CHARTS can offer value in terms of measuring potential and RISK. You don't even need to be that technical, just take a look at the weekly time frame. The previous week's bearish pin bar low was broken signaling weakness, NOT Bitcoin 100 million K.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITCOIN Free Signal! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
BITCOIN is retesting a
Horizontal support level
Around 101,288$ from
Where we will be expecting
A local rebound so we can
Go long with the Take Profit
Of 104,324$ and the Stop
Loss of 100,300$
Buy!
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Symmetrical Triangle: Volatility Squeeze Before Breakout?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is currently trading within a well-defined symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart. This formation is characterized by converging trendlines—higher lows and lower highs—indicating a period of consolidation and decreasing volatility.
Price action is tightening, suggesting a potential breakout is imminent. Symmetrical triangles can break either way, but in this case, the pattern follows a strong prior uptrend, hinting at a possible bullish continuation. Still, traders should watch closely for a confirmed breakout with volume.
⚠️ Key levels to watch:
Upper resistance: ~$111,000
Lower support: ~$96,000
A decisive break above or below these boundaries could set the tone for BTC’s next major move.
BITCOIN This is the long-term picture. Don't get distracted.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been consolidating lately after making a new All Time High (ATH) last month and this is already making part of the market nervous over whether that's the Cycle Top or not.
This is one of those times when it would be best to ignore the short-term noise/ volatility and stick to the long-term picture. And that's exactly what's shown on this chart, with BTC on the 1M time-frame showing the incredible symmetry among its 4-year Cycles, with Bear Markets lasting 12 - 13 months and Bull Markets 35.
Based on that, this Cycle's Top is expected to be priced by October (2025). This also matches the Sine Waves as implied by the 1M RSI, which as been trading within a Channel Down (diminishing returns) since Bitcoin's inception.
So do you also think that we have around 4 months before the market tops? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Is exactly where it should be this time on every Cycle!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has made a new All Time High (ATH) last month, following the April 2025 rebound on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). No matter how odd this price action may look to some, BTC is simply replicating the pattern it has during every past Cycle around this time of its final year.
As you can see, besides April 2025, it made 1W MA50 pull-backs and rebounds on June 2021, July 2017 and July 2013. The consistency is remarkable and since we are already now half-way through June, historically Bitcoin only went upwards!
In fact, those pull-backs have been the strongest the market saw before the Cycles peaked on each and every occasion. Two Cycles peaked just above the 2.0 Fibonacci extension while in 2017 it peaked a little below the 5. Fib ext. This indicates that the minimum Cycle Top we can be expecting towards the end of the year is $160000 (marginally below the 2.0 Fib ext).
Many studies point towards the same Target. Do you think it's inevitable? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Cup and Handle making double bounce on the 1D MA50.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is about to complete a Cup and Handle (C&H) formation, having consolidated for almost a month since the May 22 All Time High (ATH). What makes the bullish potential even stronger is that it is rising after making a Double Bottom on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since October 10 2024.
Given that the long-term pattern is a Channel Up and the 1D MA50 is acting as its natural support trend-line, the Cup and Handle can provide a short-term Target on its 2.0 Fibonacci extension at $122000. On the long-term the Channel Up still has the potential to lead it much higher.
So do you think that 122k is achievable after this Cup and Handle making double bounce on the 1D MA50? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Consolidation: Easy, Walk Away.Bitcoin consolidation in progress. The easiest thing to do in these situations is avoid taking any trades until a new trend is established. Even smaller time frames will be harder to trade unless you are employing mean reversion strategies. At some point the market will choose which way it wants to go but trying to guess in advance is a coin flip. The broader trend is bullish but the 110K and 113K area is a tough resistance. If price struggles to break this area over the next few weeks, then a broader retrace may be more likely.
In this situation it pays to wait for specific levels to take any action at all. What type of action you take will depend on your risk tolerance and time frame. In my opinion, the higher probability scenarios will be a test of the 102K area supports, followed by reversal patterns. Even if they don't follow through to new highs, at least there will be some attempt to maintain the support since Bitcoin is still generally strong.
IF Bitcoin breaks the support (anything is possible) that will confirm the broader corrective scenario which can see price testing 95K at minimum. There is no way to know the certainty of this scenario, it is all about how price action unfolds and confirms.
This time of year is typical of lower volume, lower momentum and less follow through. Often it is better to just sit it out and wait until the season shows clear signs of improvement. Seasonal volume does not typically get back to consistently high momentum levels until November. This does not mean there will be no opportunities at all, it just means if there is going to be a time to purposely be more selective, the next couple of months would be that time.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.