BITCOIN Will Keep Growing! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
BITCOIN keeps growing
And we are seeing a
Strong bullish breakout
Of the key level around 74k$
Which reinforces our bullish
Bias and we will be expecting
A further move up
Buy!
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Bitcoin-btcusd-btc
BTCUSD Can it repeat Nikkei's 80s mania phase?This is of course a highly speculative but fun chart between Bitcoin / BTCUSD and Nikkei.
As you can see Bitcoin has been following Nikkei's post 1950 parabolic curve up to the point that it tested the 1month MA50 and rebounded aggressively to cross above the curve.
That was Nikkei's 80s Mania Phase that inflated the economic Bubble that burst emphatically and caused hyperinflation, not allowing Japan to recover up to this date.
Bitcoin is based on that comparison on a similar pre-breakout situation.
If it does break above the parabolic curve, which will mean a new narrative for Bitcoin with industry wide adoption and commerce use, we should be seeing (again based on this Nikkei comparison) an extension to the 10 Fibonacci level.
Previous chart:
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BITCOIN fully supported targeting $170k after the ATH breaks.Exactly 3 months ago (August 05, see chart below) when the price was on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), having hit it for the first time since the week of March 12 2003, we claimed that this was the last stand for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) if the market wanted to maintain the Bull Cycle, as based on the previous 3 Cycles, it was the absolute supporting trend-line:
The 1W MA50 eventually held not once but twice and that gave way to a rally that last week tested the 73800 All Time High (ATH). That is incredibly bullish, especially only two days before the U.S. elections, as from the historic patterns we've shown you before, a Parabolic Rally has started after each election.
So according to our August comparison chart, if history is repeated, BTC is looking towards at least the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the ATH, which is roughly a little over $170k.
But what do you think? Are you expecting the ATH test to start a massive rally similar to all previous Cycles? And if so, is $170000 a realistic Target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: Double Top Or Buying Op?Bitcoin missed all time high by 200 points. Are you long from the RISKIEST price location since March? If you observe this price action from a larger time frame (weekly), you should recognize the failed high which is a variation of the classic double top formation. If you got long betting on the break out (on this time frame) and a red candle develops the next day or so (see arrow), that is usually a good reason to exit in order to avoid the 6K to 8K associated risk. Rather than getting stuck in a painful position, it is far more effective to gauge the probability and RISK in advance and adjust to it. Let me explain.
There is no question, Bitcoin is generally strong, but that does NOT guarantee a break out will follow through. Betting on break outs is a viable strategy, you just have to know how to manage the position if it fails. The main idea here is you MUST accept the fact that there is NO WAY To know if the break will fail or succeed in advance. All you can do is ask: if it fails, how much risk am I taking? And your answer will depend on the time frame you are operating within. The larger the time frame, the greater the risk. In the case of the daily chart, the next support is the 68K to 66K area (old resistance/ new support).
Also when taking such a trade, you should be acting on specific entry criteria (some kind of pattern) that provides some level of objectivity to your decision making process. IF you got long as a reaction to a price spike. or worse, as a result of consuming mainstream news, you will find out the hard way that acting on low quality information makes you a profit opportunity for someone else. For optimal results (and to profit from those who react to noise) you MUST have a clear decision making process that defines profit objectives/risk the same way for EVERY trade or investment you make (Trade Scanner Pro).
So what about buying this pullback? That is sensible BUT I have yet to see a buy signal. The location is attractive (see illustration), but without a signal there is no way to measure risk. The other important point is to have a realistic profit objective in terms of PROBABILITY OF PROFIT. While a "higher high" is likely in a bullish trend (74K+?), you have a greater chance of exiting green at a lower price (test of 71.5K). This decision depends on your degree of confidence and willingness to embrace risk. While price is favored to make the higher high, there is NO guarantee. Accept the fact that there is NO WAY to know for sure. You place a bet and hope it works out. And if not, you have a plan in place to control the risk. That is the trader mentality in a nutshell.
If you look at my previous articles, my forecasts (illustrations) have been wrong. I have been anticipating a retrace to a support, but Bitcoin does not agree. It is important for you to understand that at highs I will usually look for a pullback and at lows I will look for a bounce. While this does not work 100% of the time, it has helped me effectively navigate this range bound market that Bitcoin has been gyrating within since March and has yet to break out of.
Unlike many "gurus" I do not pretend to be able to forecast the future, I simply play the probabilities, just like going all in on pocket aces before the flop. It doesn't ALWAYS work, but probability favors a positive outcome because that is the strongest hand you can start with.
The more time you factor into an idea, the less of a chance you have of being accurate. This is because markets are HIGHLY random. Price has retraced off the high and that is ideal for a swing trade long (which can be good for a few days/week). Its just a matter of confirmation at this point. What happens after that is anyone's guess.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITCOIN TARGETING ALL TIME HIGHS - BTC LONG IDEAI projected and shared the idea that Bitcoin would reach $70,000 and potentially $73,000 within a few days. It happened in just two days! I hope you took the trade and made some profits, as I did.
Now, I’m preparing to position myself with the expectation that we’ll reach all-time highs within a week or two.
We recently broke a massive bearish trendline that has held since March 2024. Just before that, a daily demand zone formed, which helped break the trendline, making it a key area for me. Additionally, the equilibrium level of the bullish leg aligns perfectly with my point of interest.
I expect the price to retrace to the daily demand zone, hit the discount Fibonacci area, test the trendline, and take off from there toward new all-time highs.
Of course, I’ll be looking for lower time-frame confirmations before initiating a long position.
BITCOIN Closed 2 straight green 1M candles after 7 months!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is closing today the monthly (1M) candle and unless it drops by 7000 in a few hours, it will close the month of October in green. That will be the 2nd straight green 1M candle since March!
This 7 month consolidation period is no stranger to BTC as such patterns, where there are no straight green 1M candles, are standard Accumulation Phases that we see during Bull Cycles. So far on the current one we've had three (including March 2024) and once the market closed 2 straight green 1M candles, it rallied.
The 2019 - 2021 Bull Cycle had three such straight green candle occasions and a very clear Accumulation Phase, while the 2015 - 2018 Cycle had numerous. One thing is clear based on this multi-year chart. When the market closes two straight green 1M candles, it is always a good signal to buy.
But what do you think? Do you find this indicator reliable? Are you buying based on this? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Gaussian Channel telling you the rally has already begunBitcoin (BTCUSD) is illustrated here on the 1W time-frame from the 2011 Cycle until today. We've used the Gaussian Channel (GC) after a long time and the reason is simple. Since the August 05 2024 Low, it has been supporting the uptrend up to today's test of the All Time High (ATH).
** Gaussian October support every 4 years **
This continuous support is a critical feature moving forward as every time the GC held at this stage of the previous Cycles (October 2020, 2016 and 2012), BTC started its final (and most aggressive) Parabolic Rally of the Cycle.
** Resistance turned Support **
What's equally interesting is that during those stages, the price also re-tested and held the former Resistance (of the previous Higher High), turned it into a Support (while the GC held) and bounced to the Parabolic Rally. This is a remarkably consistent feature taking place every 4 years!
** The green GC length matters **
Now as to the GC in more detail. What we want you to keep from it, is that the green part of the GC has lasted in the previous Cycles 123, 144 and 148 weeks respectively, which translates to 861, 1008 and 1036 days, until it turned red. As a result, we can expect the current green phase to last until December 08 2025 (minimum) and June 01 2026 (maximum). It is more reasonable to expect the longer case as the recent Cycles tend to have stabilized most of their common time patterns.
The Bear Cycle tends to start when a 1W candle is closed below the GC. Until then, based on the parallel Channel Up patterns that encompass 3 Cycles each time, we can even expect a price as high as $200000 for this Cycle Top.
Do you think that's realistic? And if so, do you also expect the GC wave to support a parabolic rally all the way to the top? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Short From Resistance! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
BITCOIN is retesting a
Horizontal resistance level
Around 74k USD which also
Happens to be an all-time-high
So despite our bullish bias
We will be expecting a
Local bearish correction
Sell!
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BTCUSD: Will it make new All Time High or get rejected?Bitcoin turned overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 71.973, MACD = 1675.300, ADX = 39.493) as it is on the 4th straight bullish day, approaching the 73,800 All Time High. The rise is being charged by the 1D Golden Cross formation two days ago and with the 1W time-frame still far from being overbought, we can see this bullish trend extending. If it breaks the ATH, we expect a slower ascend to 80,000 but if the price is rejected on the ATH level, we may see a new test of the 1D MA50 (TP = 67,500) so that the market tests the buying strength once more before breaking the ATH.
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BITCOIN RESISTANCE AHEAD|SHORT|
✅BITCOIN broke the falling
Resistance line just as I predicted
And we are bullish biased mid-term
However, the coin is locally overbought
So after it hits the horizontal resistance
Of 74k$ we will be expecting a local
Bearish correction
SHORT🔥
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ATCryptoScan : BTCUSD at that time before launch againLooking back at the BTCUSD weekly charts, there appears to be similar, if not the same, technical conditions before the start of a massive BTCUSD rally. This comes with both MACD and VolDiv crossovers and a breakout of a trendline after a period of consolidation.
Marked out by time lines, the Green lines are the most similar to current (yellow), and the orange has only a differing VolDiv. All are breakout points and appears to be great accumulation start points for the next year or two.
Just weeks ago, a similar technical set up was made, and today is a couple of weeks after...
Clear correlation here, so we know what the most probable for the next year going forward...
Seriously Bullish BTC
PS. this is the repeat post... the amended version.
Bitcoin: Hasn't Reached Optimal Price.Bitcoin showing a higher low consolidation just above the 64K area support. Relative to the previous bullish structure, this signifies a higher likelihood that a higher high will follow, it's just a matter of catalyst. In the mean time, price can fluctuate either way from the current point (random). While the trend may be obvious in this situation, timing it effectively has everything to do with recognizing high probability price locations, setups etc. Otherwise you can make the mistake of assuming greater risk than you realize. In this article, I will describe the high probability, lower risk scenario that the market MAY OR MAY NOT present in the coming week.
One thing I recognize is that price continues to flirt with a resistance zone which makes this a tricky play for swing trades (at the time of writing current candle is inside bar). The 67K to 70K area is still a resistance zone (blue rectangle) and a higher risk location for long swing trades. In such scenarios when location is high risk but buy signals appear (break of inside bar high for example), it is more effective to assume risk on smaller time frames like 4H or 1H, and attempting to participate for a smaller bite. The risk that you are minimizing in this situation is the possibility that the 65K minor support is tested again and/or broken (see arrow).
The higher probability and lower risk scenario would be IF price can test the 64K support, followed by a reversal confirmation. The location is much more attractive since the potential profit is greater (3K+ points) coupled with much lower RISK (1 to 1.5 max) compared to 3K+ points of risk at the moment relative to this time frame. The illustration on the chart summarizes the ideal scenario that IF the market shows, would be a high probability swing trade long opportunity (which requires entry confirmation).
These scenarios that I present are dependent on the price action confirmation otherwise risk cannot be justified. Even having a confirmation process (like the Trade Scanner Pro) does NOT guarantee the trade idea will produce a positive outcome. After all, markets are HIGHLY random and outcomes are often the result of unexpected information being priced in. This is why technical analysis cannot be relied upon over longer time horizons, but can be helpful for quantifying risk.
Managing a position effectively no matter the time frame has everything to do with having properly aligned market expectations. First you uncover an idea, LET the market confirm the idea, from there it goes the right way or the wrong way. Your expectations will then shape how you manage the position as it fluctuates. The key to effective management is having an open enough mind to let the market pay you more when IT wants to, while being decisive enough to get out the moment you recognize what "wrong" looks like (or using other risk control methods like a stop). All of this information can be acquired from price charts or tools developed to simplify this process. Without any "process" you are most susceptible to relying on intuition and "hope" which will result in the typical retail trader experience: win sometimes but the account never grows for some reason.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITCOIN This 1D Golden Cross can push it to the ATH ($73800).Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is ahead of a major bullish formation as most likely by next Monday, it will form a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame, the first such formation since October 29 2023. As we've analyzed before, it is no coincidence that exactly 1 year later a new 1D Golden Cross emerges as seasonality and long-term Cycles play a pivotal role for BTC.
On top of that, the price made a major re-test (and so far bounce) at the top of the former Channel Down that broke upwards last week. If this re-test holds, it is the best short-term signal for a new High. In fact the price has been making Higher Highs since the August 05 bottom, forming a double Channel Up pattern, and those Higher Highs are the reason why the market got behind this rally and supported it to break above the 7-month Channel Down.
So the Higher Highs along with the 1D Golden Cross are the bullish combination that the market needs to look (much) higher. The first technical target now is naturally the 73800 All Time High (ATH). It is very possible to see it get tested by the election day.
But what do you think? Do you expect the ATH to break aggressively after the elections, just like the October 2023 1D Golden Cross did? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN When the 4 year Cycles do the talking..It's been some time since we last used the Mayer Multiple Bands (MMB) on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) but the timing is just right to bring you an update, only 2 weeks before the U.S. Presidential Elections with the market ahead on an imminent bullish break-out.
This time we look into how the price was trading on this date every 4 years. As you know BTC is trading roughly within 4 year Cycles that keep a high degree of symmetry and tend to repeat a lot of dynamics each time.
Right now, towards the end of October (2024), the price is trading within the Mean MM (black trend-line) and the 1st SD above (grey trend-line). It has already started rising off the Mean MM. Based on the 4-year Cycle Theory, it is no surprise then that the price was within the exact same range in October 2020, October 2016 and October 2012. The degree of symmetry is remarkable and is yet again showcased by this indicator.
We can also see that by this time every 4 years, the price had already started rising off the Mean MM, just as it is doing now. With the green Rectangles we display the date range between these 4-year intervals and the peak of the Bull Cycle. For October 2012 it took 58 weeks (406 days) until it topped, October 2016 was 60 weeks (420 days) while October 2020 was 55 days (385 days). So time-wise the Cycle tends to peak roughly the same period.
As a result, if we take the minimum scenario of 55 weeks, we can expect the Cycle to top by mid November 2025. As far as targets are concerned, the first two Cycles hit (and broke) the 3 SD above (red trend-line), while the last one the 2 SD above (orange trend-line). Again assuming a 'worst case scenario' hitting 'just' the 2 SD trend-line, we can set a Target Range of 190k - 250k, depending on whether the price hits it halfway through the 55 week range or towards its end. Nevertheless, an exciting rally appears to be starting for Bitcoin.
So what do you think? Is this October MMB fractal about to break to a parabolic rally? And if so, will it hit the orange trend-line? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD: Broke above the 7 month pattern and turned bullish on 1WBitcoin just turned bullish on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 56.534, MACD = 2298.400, ADX = 20.606) as it crossed over the top (LH) of the 7 month Bearish Megaphone. This is a major bullish breakout and the only one remaining is the R1 level (70,000). This is practically the reason of today's pullback because the price is being rejected just under the R1 level. Still, there is no cause for concern as since Sep 20th, Bitcoin has crossed and sustained trading above its MA trendlind, a sign of a trend reversal.
Furthermore, the Bullish Megaphone that started on the November 2022 bottom just formed a Bullish Cross on the 1W MACD and with the support of the 1W MA50 is now looking to establish the new bullish wave. If similar rallies like the previous waves take place, then Bitcoin can target 100k at least (TP = 100,000), even as early as January 2025.
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Bitcoin: Bullish Into Range Resistance?Bitcoin over the recent week has blown through the 64K resistance and now hesitating at 68K. The blue square on my chart highlights the resistance zone that price fluctuates within. Is Bitcoin more likely to continue higher or retrace back to 64K from here? In this article I will evaluate the possibilities of both outcomes and how to better align your decision making with market intent.
First I will address my previous week's scenario. If you read the article, my conclusion was that Bitcoin was more likely to retrace and test the 60K support area. Boy was I wrong about that one, but the question is: could I have anticipated that resistance break? The blue arrow on the chart points to a sharp move higher as a result of China surprising the market with a stimulus package (which translates into rising global inflation). Gold, silver and Bitcoin were pushing highs the whole week which serves as a valuable lesson when it comes to how a news events can change the a market outlook in an instant. This is why NO ONE can accurately forecast a market far in advance (unless you have REAL inside information).
Any trade or investment can GO WRONG for any reason at any time. Effective RISK management is the key to this game for this precise reason. You have to be prepared to get out of something that is showing the wrong look so to speak and be able to adjust your mindset to the new information at hand. That is the market, you either accept that or simply donate all of your capital to someone who is more flexible than you.
That brings me to Bitcoin now. This week I am anticipating a bearish retrace (see illustration) back to the 64K support (old resistance). The sell signal is confirmed when the inside bar low is compromised (previous candle). Even in the face of the inflationary news, I am bearish at these levels for one simple reason: previous tests of this range have attracted selling activity (look backwards on chart). Since "history repeats itself", I believe probability favors selling activity at least for a week or so. Also what adds even more to the short term bearish argument is the fact that Bitcoin continues to respect the broader consolidation which it has been within since March. Until 73K breaks, I will expect the range to stay intact which means both supports and resistances are more likely to HOLD not break.
What can go wrong here? IF the current momentum persists, and the inside bar high is compromised instead, it will cancel out my bearish scenario. In this instance, the 70 to 73K zone can be tested. Again this is about ADJUSTING to market action, not getting married to an idea.
How you navigate opportunities that are derived from price momentum depends on having clear objectives and being aligned with respective time frames. Before you even pull up a chart, you must know if you are looking for day trade or swing trade setups. From that point you can better utilize what I share here by incorporating my levels, price structure along with my confirmation references. Respect the price, simplify your decision making process as much as possible and learn to recognize "wrong" quickly. It is easier said than done but this at least should put you on the right path.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITCOIN 'Angle Theory' unlocking this Cycle. Is $140k the top?Exactly 1 year ago (October 02 2023, see chart below), we published a renewed approach on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) historic Cycles, using the 'Angles Theory' on the logarithmic curve to make a more accurate roadmap of the current Cycle:
Back then, the price was 'just' $28000 and a few months later it catapulted to almost $74000. Below we present again the basics of that analysis, in order to refresh your memory.
** Cycle Peaks and angles **
BTC's Cycle peaks in historical order have been $32, $1250, $19800, $69800. They all made contact with the Logarithmic top Growth Curve, a historic pattern that is holding since BTC's inception.
Every peak-to-peak measurement appears to be roughly half of the previous peak. The automatic angle measurements on the (red) dotted lines may differ based on the screen's display and how the horizontal/ vertical axis move but on ours (and the screenshot of the idea) goes like this: 42°, 22°, 11°. We estimate a 7° angle for the new Cycle peak on the log Growth Curve.
** Next Cycle peak? **
If we take all previous Cycles and apply them to fit the new price action towards the top of the Log Growth Curve, that 7° line gives a projected Cycle peak within $140000 - 160000 (slightly updated from our study a year ago). It is also interesting to apply the same angle principle to the Cycle bottoms. We can see that those (green dotted lines) can also roughly be half of what the previous bottom was (though the variations are higher). The new bottom is estimated to be on a 8° angle.
Remarkably the angles of the tops and bottoms of each Cycle have approximately the same measurements, indicating that despite being logarithmic within a curve, they can be viewed separately in Channels.
** Last year compared to now **
So how has this Theory worked out compared to last year? Well beyond doubt, the Cycle was much more aggressive that the previous two (blue and orange) due to mainly the Bitcoin ETF launch, and is certainly more similar to the first Cycle (black). That suggests that it will top by January 2025 but the Sine Waves Tops, which have caught Bitcoin's cyclical peaks with incredible accuracy, indicate it will be around November 2025. As you can see, this is exactly where the projection of the blue and orange fractals show.
But what do you think? Will the current Cycle peak at the end of 2025 and if show will it be at a minimum of $140000 and a maximum of $1600000, as the 7° angle on the Log Curve suggests? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN One year later, the pattern is repeated and leads to 88kThis is not the first time we make a case for October being the start of an aggressive rally for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and lately we have presented you the evidence on the long-term 1W time-frame.
This time we want to focus on the 1D chart, where a more detailed analysis can be made on the fractals that lead to this rally. It was the very same pattern that helped us catch last year the amazing October 2023 - March 2024 rally, as you can see on our September 28 2023 post (see chart below):
As you can see both fractals (2023 and 2024) traded initially within a Triangle pattern that bottomed on an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S). The bottom took place at the same time of the 1D Death Cross formation. Throughout the whole process, they were supported by the 1W MA50 (red trend-line).
Right now on the October 2024 fractal we are at the point where BTC just broke above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Triangle. On the 2023 fractal that led to a brutal rise that only took a 'break' after reaching the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, right after forming a 1D Golden Cross.
As a result, it is possible to see $88000 (Fib 2.0 ext) in December, before the market 'cools' again. Much of course will depend upon how the markets will digest the November U.S. elections but as we've shown you in analytical charts here, the result of event tends to make little difference.
So what do you think? Can this break-out lead to 88k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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