BTCUSD: Right where it's supposed to be.Bitcoin is on the very healthy bullish technicals on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 60.823, MACD = 1089.300, ADX = 23.103) extending a controlled uptrend. The 1W timeframe remains overbought though (RSI = 74.426) as there has been no hard correction since mid August. Perhaps the relief in late weeks is an attempt of 1D to neutralize the overbought state on 1W without a strong correction.
Regardless of this, Bitcoin is right where it's supposed to be when compared to the previous Cycles. On this chart you see the harmonic structure of every bottom that leads to cyclinder pattern that ultimate paves the wave for the end of Cycle rally.
There has always been one extreme event' crash on every Cycle, after which the market bottomed and never looked back. It was COVID and Bitfinex before, this time we had FTX and now the market shouldn't break the 1W MA50 again before the next Bear Cycle starts. All that's left now to do is see how close the price will be to the 1W MA50 in the next Halving (April 2024) as from that point onwards the parabolic rally can start any moment.
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Bitcoin-btcusd-btc
BITCOIN Monthly RSI tells you where the Cycle Top will be!Following our recent Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Thanksgiving study on the trend-line angles, we decided to expand it a bit further and apply a similar reasoning on the RSI, this time on the 1M (monthly) time-frame.
The result is more than informative as, with the additional use of the Fibonacci Channel levels for better display, we see that from bottom to top, every Cycle displays an RSI trend-line on a 40° angle (approximately). Applying the same measurement on the current Cycle, we get a rough date for the next Top at around March 2025. This doesn't of course give a dollar figure of BTC's price at that time but rather tells you to (at least) start considering taking (some) profits on your holdings.
Do you agree with that model? Are going to sell around that date? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: Playing 35K to 38K Range.Bitcoin range is confirmed between 35K and 38K (see blue rectangles on chart). As I went over in my previous article and stream, assign probabilities to these levels UNTIL one of them breaks. Since the broader trend (price structure) is still BULLISH, the resistance area (38K to 40K) is favored to break while the 35K support is more likely to hold. Using these expectations is like assigning loose probabilities to the levels which can adequately prepare you for potential opportunities while mitigating risk.
The purpose of this article is to provide insight and perspective into the scenario that I believe is most probable for the coming week or two. It is based on my evaluation process which is focused purely on price action principles. I am not always right, nor do I expect to be because first and foremost I accept markets are mostly random (not ALWAYS random).
Capitalizing on the current range is easier said than done mostly because of lack of perspective, poorly defined system, emotional baggage, etc. Just as a side note, I asked my followers in my previous stream how they would trade around this particular scenario. They all answered it correctly (they've been following me for a while).
Here is what I suggest: If you are AGGRESSIVE: day trade shorts off the resistance. Right now 37,200 is the short entry on the daily time frame. This can be used on smaller time frames as a point of reference for day trades. "Why?" you ask? Day trades keep your risk smaller because your stop and take profit should be proportionally smaller (lower expectations). For example, if you sell 37,200 you should be looking for a move to 37K or maybe 36,950 max. If you expect more, you are asking for trouble. This is a broader BULLISH trend remember?
If you are conservative: WAIT for a test of 35K and then look for a bullish reversal confirmation on the daily time frame. Since this would be a trade on the side of the trend, it would be reasonable to have a higher profit expectation. A swing trade would be more appropriate here with a profit expectation of about 1500 to 2K points. Again, WAITING for confirmation is KEY. If 35K breaks, then you need to reevaluate and adjust to the new information.
Keep in mind, the scenarios I am describing here are one of countless possibilities. Price may not touch the 35K area. Price may reverse off of 37K and break out. Or maybe the 35K support breaks and the structure changes. The idea is NOT to get married to a scenario but instead be prepared IF one appears otherwise you adjust expectations.
The human element of markets is what contributes to its repetitive tendencies. These tendencies are frequent but NOT constant. As a trader it is in your best interest to WAIT until probabilities are stacked in your favor, otherwise you are simply gambling. It's like playing lousy poker hands over and over and making the other players at your table rich.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
The power of the black swan fractal.MIL:BTC will see a pre-halving ATH if it keeps copying previous cycle's post-black swan fractal.
After the FTX crash, we copied each phase that occurred after the COVID crash. If this continues, we'll see a new ATH early 2024. The ETF catalyst could make it happen.
BITCOIN TO FALL TO $18000 THEN RISE TO $100,000I am still temporarily still bearish on Bitcoin . $35-42k zone.
Bitcoin will fall to $18k then rise to $100k.
Pain before Joy
Harmonic Pattern : Bearish Crab
BTC will play in the resistance zone $37-42k.
Sell off to $20k (etf news will cause this sell off)
Massive bullrun from $18-20k to $100k in 2025
Bitcoin: 35K Test For New Long?Bitcoin has rejected the 40K area resistance swiftly over the previous week but that bearish momentum has also failed to follow through. What is going on here? This can be a bullish consolidation as long as the minor support at 35K stays intact. The higher probability opportunity in this case would be a double bottom or failed low off of the 35K support (see illustration on chart).
What IF 35K breaks? This would increase the possibility for a test of the 32 to 30K major support zone. A location that would still justify risks on the long side since the broader bullish structure would still be in play at that point.
Keep in mind this analysis is best suited for day trades and swing trades only. For example, waiting for long confirmations on a smaller time frame at these specified supports offers a better chance of a positive outcome as long as your EXPECTATIONS are in line with your time frame. If you don't understand this, do NOT risk real money.
Those who immerse themselves in news, logic, gimmicks to explain market movements or worse, forecast them are the MOST likely to be fleeced. The best we can do is form short term expectations based on recent price behavior. As price structures and levels change, our expectations should also change. If our goal is to generate a profit, then it is in our best interest to align with what the MARKET implies, NOTHING ELSE.
To be clear, the purpose of outlining this scenario is to PREPARE for a potential opportunity on the swing trade time frame that may develop over the coming week. Reacting to the price action at current levels is more likely to produce a random outcome. Random is not how you build accounts.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
On the cusp of a legendary runLooking at the chart you can see we found support at the 200 Ema using 2 week candles at the beginning of this year. Price has more than doubled since then. We've regained the 8 Ema over the 21 and are starting to expand rapidly. Edge to edge cloud trade would put us at $42,500 as a short term target. The only thing that has kept this run in check so far is the 77 Vwma. I believe if we can decisively break that, Bitcoin will start a historic bull run topping out around $336,000 based on a fibonacci plot from a previous move. This is all without taking into the likelihood of a spot Bitcoin ETF slated to be approved by January 10th, 2024. That could be the catalyst to finally push through the 77 Vwma. All dips are for buying for the immediate future in my opinion and will be adjusting my trading strategy accordingly. Best of luck tradingviewers.
Bitcoin's next impulse They say there are two pairs of everything in the universe just like two possible scenarios seen on this chart (White & Yellow arrows)
Bitcoin's Overlapping .5 fib and top of the weekly cloud is the target as price could and should respect the 4hr cloud
In theory...
Prevailingnine 11.7.23
Current structure looks bullish lets see how it develops
Bitcoin: Bears Are Active 35K.Bitcoin is exhibiting signs of exhaustion around the 35K resistance area. A failed high can potentially develop here which can lead to a retest of the 32K support AREA over the coming week. This activity should not be too surprising since it appears to be motivated by rumors rather than reality.
People love throwing around opinions and pointing to explanations (human nature again). That's great if you consider the financial markets as a form of entertainment. If you are interested in making money and managing risk, then you should only be concerned with probabilities, not opinions.
In this situation the conservative trader would WAIT for the retrace into the support area. From there look for a price action setup and confirmation for a new long. This means WAITING for the 33 to 32K area test followed by a reversal pattern. The broader price structure is still bullish which means probabilities still favor the long side (assuming a test of support).
The aggressive trader would be considering short setups on smaller time frames off the 35K resistance anticipating the pull back. While this is plausible at such levels, going counter trend requires keeping expectations LOW since probability generally favors buying.
Confused? Then just stay out. Having a strict set of rules solves this problem because either the criteria is met or it is not. This is where bots (like my trade scanner) shine.
Since I don't short Bitcoin, the conservative scenario is the one I wait for.
It is also important not to get swayed by general sentiment. The previous week gave us some market optimism by implying rates will have to pause or be cut. Keep in mind, like Bitcoin was motivated by fake news apparently, markets can also be temporarily affected by perceptions of the future. Short term movements (especially ones that do not have any significant changes on the broader structure) are likely to be temporary reactions. It is best to think of them this way UNTIL they prove otherwise. A couple of green candles on the 10 Year note futures do NOT confirm a new bullish trend.
Markets are RANDOM for the most part. If you are focusing on anything but weighing probabilities, you have yet to realize that chances are an ALGO is on the other side of your trades. Algos are the equivalent of RATIONAL traders/investors which makes for an efficient market. You can't beat efficient markets via conventional means.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BTCUSD You will get another opportunity to buy if you missed thiFew are looking into what has perhaps given historically the most accurate results on Bitcoin, the 1M timeframe. Technically, it has just gottern out of neutrality and turned bullish (RSI = 56.333, MACD = 1504.800, ADX = 27.300) suggesting that the market is past the dangers of the previous Bear Market and has already started the Bull Market.
The current rally is being performed on an October rebound on the 1M MA50. It is not over yet, there are high probabilities of peaking between December and January. Looking at the 1M LMACD, the benchmark is the Bullish Cross that was formed in June (2023). Every prior Bullish Cross, initially delivered a rise then minor pull-back and eventually the final parabolic rally of the Bull Cycle.
We have measured the bottom of the LMACD on each Cycle to its peak and the previous two have been 25 and 27 months in duration respectively. A 25 month estimate for the current Cycles gives us a peak projection for March 2025. We can't of course be certain of the exact peak price but what the LMACD has shown is that every Cycle High is priced when the LMACD hits the 10 year LH trendline. Best to realize profits on your Bitcoins near that level.
Before that, Bitcoin should give us one final pull-back going into the new Halving (April 2024), so that will be your new opportunity to buy if you missed the entry on the current rally.
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BITCOIN Will a BTC ETF mirror Gold's post approval +350% rise?Undoubtedly it's been the talk of the year. We are talking of course about a potential Bitcoin ETF approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Many analysts believe that BTC's recent rise has been due to euphoria on a potential positive result. Expectations certainly are not always met but this time, they are higher than ever.
** Are Bitcoin and Gold comparable? **
So, do we have any historic framework to relate to and work on? Possibly. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been dubbed as the digital Gold due to its store of value (theoretical) attribute. Even though they are different markets and two assets that certainly have different volatilities, it is understandably so, as Bitcoin (portrayed on the chart by orange trend-line) is relatively new (compared to Gold's traditional monetary backing), on much lower capitalization and is natural to be so volatile in its early stages until mass adoption happens and the market matures.
** Gold's ETF approval pattern **
As a result, Gold's ETF introduction back in March 28 2003 may be the perfect (and perhaps only dependable) comparison we can make if we want to put a potential Bitcoin ETF approval into context. As you can see, Gold (portrayed on the chart by the candles) rose massively by +350% since its ETF approval. The rise from the previous peak (January 1980) to the post ETF one (August 2011), has been +124%. Even though they are on different time-frames (but understandably so as Bitcoin is digital and moves on a much faster pace), we have adjusted BTC's last Bear Cycle and the subsequent first Bull Cycle rally, on Gold's price action from the 1980 peak to the March 2003 ETF approval. Of course this assumes that Bitcoin's ETF will be approved and even more so now, but this is the only basis for comparison we can make. When/ if approved, the width (and price ranges) can be adjusted.
** Bitcoin's projection based on Gold's ETD pattern **
So on the right chart we can see a post ETF approval projection for Bitcoin based on Gold's pattern. As +350% rise would push the price near $160000. The symmetry is astonishing as the peak-to-peak trend-line from BTC's November 2021 High to that potential +350% one (160k) would also be +124%, exactly like Gold's! Amazing coincidence indeed but certainly shows us just how pattern recognition and comparison can give interesting results. Especially on identical fundamentals.
But what do you think? Will a SEC approved Bitcoin ETF follow into Gold's footsteps? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: 36,250 Break To 37K Area?Bitcoin has generated a new swing trade long signal on the daily time frame upon the break of the 26,250 candle high (couple of days ago). This is a momentum continuation pattern and it can lead to a test of the next resistance area around 37K over the coming week. This context is ideal for day trades or swing trades only, these are far fro ideal levels for new investing.
In my previous article I described a test of the 33K resistance followed by a potential pull back. This scenario never came to be and Bitcoin surged through the resistance area, pushing into the 35K resistance. The key takeaway here is this: we can come up with all the scenarios we want and assign probabilities to them, until price confirms the scenario, it carries little weight. In other words, markets are RANDOM and it is ineffective to navigate them successfully with "opinions".
There has not been one confirmed short setup (based on my system) since this rally has begun. There have been 3 long setups on the daily time frame with the third one confirming at the break of 26,250. Having a well defined system for decision making in such an environment cannot be emphasized enough. This is what keeps emotions in check and helps to minimize the nonsense and noise coming from the internet.
The 37K resistance area dates back to 2021 where it served as an important support area. Old support has a tendency to become new resistance which is a function of human behavior.
This is the price area to measure profit potential from, and place take profit orders for swing trades, etc. IF price FAILS to reach this area and instead produces a conflicting signal, adjustments have to be made as soon as possible to risk/reward expectations (like moving stop to break even).
What about rates? And why is Bitcoin rallying while stock market is pushing lows? Markets can be irrational for any reason. I don't waste time trying to figure out why, instead I adjust my expectations and orders to what the markets wants to do, NOT what I "think".
With that being said, my "opinion" (which I do not trade on) is still that interest rates are far from favorable in terms of sustaining a bull market. Just like we had the AI hype in the stock market throughout the summer which went against a rising rate environment. I believe the move in Bitcoin is being engineered in a similar way, except that there is even less regulation.
While I will not trade on such an opinion, I do consider this when it comes to profit expectations and probabilities. Until rates and the Federal Reserve start making some changes, I will NOT be optimistic about any type of asset bubble any time soon. Overly dramatic moves like we have seen are temporary in this environment.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
Bitcoin - Cycle Channel Oscillator left the white box⬜️Bitcoin
Last time the Cycle Channel Oscillator left the white box⬜️BTC went up +1,500%🚨🚨🚨
We left the box again dear Crypto Nation👀
Doesn't it look similar to you so far❓
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The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
Bitcoin: Poised To Break 30K?Bitcoin short squeeze continues to the 30K resistance. In terms of momentum this move is significant and should shape smaller time frame strategies, BUT the bigger picture is another story. New resistance is the 31K AREA, new support is 27.5 to 28.5 AREA.
Based on the new developments in price structure, I suspect a potential test of 31K BUT I believe a break is low probability. A test of the 28.5 to 27.5 support area is more likely in my opinion over the coming week.
The bullish move (sparked by fake news apparently) appears to be a short squeeze. These type of moves are NOT sustainable over the long run and is nothing more than traders getting shaken out of short positions.
Gold has also expressed a similar move almost touching 2K. We can sit here and entertain ourselves as to "why" this may be and why it should continue. We can also watch Youtube videos featuring rocket ships on their title thumbnails (how original!). The REALITY is interest rates are at their highs (see US10Y). As long as money is getting more expensive to borrow, the probability of Bitcoin going beyond 31K is LOW.
Sure this may also be money looking for safety, but it is most likely temporary. Sustainable rallies and asset bubbles are driven by cheap money, NOT temporary catalysts based on fear.
IF Bitcoin cannot clear 31K decisively over the next week, then I will be looking for the test of the newly established support 28.5 to 27.5K (see drawing on chart). I would consider shorting this to be aggressive since it is against price structure. Waiting for bullish setups around 28K would be conservative. Either way, day trades or swing trades are most appropriate at these levels, these are not attractive levels for investing.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BTCUSD over the 1W MA100 again after 532 days!It has been 76 weeks (532 days) since BTCUSD traded over the 1W MA100, a Resistance finally broken this week. Even though the weekly closing is critical, this mere breakout itself, opens the way for a Bullish Cross between the MA50 and MA100. The 1W technical outlook is on excellent bullish levels (RSI = 65.377, mACD = 378.900, ADX = 35.081) increasing the high probabilities of such a Bullish Cross.
The pattern is so strong that every time Bitcoin formed it, an uptrend started that never looked back and led it to the Cycle's parabolic rally (exception COVID crash which is a different set of fundamentals). Along with that pattern, the 1W MACD always formed a Bullish Cross and as you see, we may only be days away from a new one.
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The Clearance Theory Dear Followers
As an analyst I always watch the market and take a notes
I would like to share one of my theorys today
I did notice this pattern did happen before throw the last few years
I call it the The clearance
it did happen before when the market was about to move strongly toward a new direction
and for making sure it will face a weak resistance the market will try to fulfill most of the pending orders before his final move
it takes the pending orders and dumb it till all the major orders fulfilled, Then >>>>>>>>
Good luck everyone
BITCOIN Yuan & China bonds tell you everything you need to know!This is not the first time we emphasize the strong correlation of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) with Yuan (USDCNY) and the Chinese Bond Yields (CN02Y and CN20Y). We made an analysis right in the aftermath of the FTX crash, indicating why those indicators have all aligned, paving the way for BTC's new Bull Cycle. As you see that happened and this time we incorporate two mixed elements, the USDCNY/CNY20Y (red trend-line) and the CN02Y/CN20Y (blue trend-line).
** The CN02Y/CN20Y ratio **
Every time the CN02Y/CN20Y ratio's Lower Highs broke in the past, Bitcoin started the second phase of the Bull Cycle. Typically this was achieved while BTC was within a Channel Up (green). Right now the CN02Y/CN20Y ratio is testing its Lower Highs trend-line.
** The USDCNY/CN20Y ratio **
The CN02Y/CN20Y break-out has historically taken place a little after the USDCNY/CN20Y ratio peaked and started to decline. Not unexpected based on hard economics as a cheaper currency favors capital flowing to risky assets (such as Bitcoin). Right now the USDCNY/CN20Y ratio has started to decline but not emphatically yet, even though the 2023 rally is very similar to the ratio's peak rallies of January - March 2020 and June - October 2016.
** The harmony of the Sine Waves **
It is very interesting to point out the high degree of symmetry between those CN02Y/CN20Y break-outs and USDCNY/CN20Y rejections. We have applied the Sine Waves tool on them and the trend turns out so harmonic, almost like a Cycle itself. This shows that at the bottom of the Sine Waves, it has never been a bad idea to buy historically.
This mix is incredibly bullish for Bitcoin technically and it prompts to a new parabolic rally as we get closer to the next Halving, the likes of which we may have not seen in the past. But what do you think? Is this pattern good enough for you to buy when the ratio's Lower Highs break-out takes place? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN The Gaussian giving one of the rarest buys you can get.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within the (now green) Gaussian Channel since the mid-August decline. It is no surprise that it held that low and trade basically sideways as once the Gaussian turns green historically, it has signaled the phase of the bull market before the Halving. It shouldn't turn red again before the new Bear Cycle.
Last time BTC dipped inside a green Gaussian Channel after breaking into while red, was in October 2019. December - January 2020 followed with a strong rise before the non-technical and outside of any model's reach Black Swan event of COVID (which is an irregularity and doesn't count on our models).
As a result, such Gaussian green dip and trade is a rare buy opportunity during a Bull Cycle while prices are still relatively low. For reference, such an opportunity didn't emerge in the 2016 - 2017 Bull Cycle. Perhaps a 1W RSI at 40.00 would be the most ideal buy entry (lowest risk/ highest return).
But what do you think? Is this Gaussian pattern good enough for you to buy? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Cycle mapping like you've never seen it before!On today's Bitcoin (BTCUSD) study, we plot the historic Cycles on top one another, classifying them into different phases. This is an alternative but very useful way at looking in BTC's historic cyclical action as it offers a sound perspective regarding our current place on the Cyclical Scale.
As you can see, the 2011 - 2013 Cycle is displayed in blue, the 2014 - 2017 Cycle in orange, the 2018 - 2021 Cycle in black and the current one 2022 onwards in red. The phases are: Bear (red), Accumulation (orange), 1st Rally (blue) and 2nd Rally (green). The three most recent Cycles are plotted as they are in terms of duration but the 2011 - 2013 one is stretched in order to fit the phase classifications and relate to the more recent Cycles.
As a result, its Halving (1) is also moved to its respective spot. It is no coincidence then that all Halvings (1 through 4) fall close to each other on what we call "the Halving Belt". Now this Cycle display gives a sound sense of Bitcoin's Cyclical perspective in relative terms (for Cycle 1). The "we are here" vertical line reveals the respective place relative to the past Cycles. As you see, it is about to end the Accumulation Phase and as it approaches Halving 4, start the 1st Rally Phase of the Bull Cycle.
So what do you think? Does this chart give a fair sense of where we are now? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD: The key to aggressive expansion.BTCUSD is neutral both on the 1W (RSI = 53.284, MACD = 507.200, ADX = 28.424)) and 1M (RSI = 49.845, MACD = 467.000, ADX = 18.857) timeframes, an encouraging outlook as it is recovering ground from the 2022 Bear Cycle. This is a chart illustrates quite accurately the Cycles of Bitcoin, transitioning from Bear to Bull and vice versa. Right now we are in the retest phase of the Bear Cycle's Support that broke in order to create the bottom. Every Cycle did that retest and in all cases it was performed on the green part (buy level) of the accumulation that preceded the Aggressive Expansion phase. If the top dashed line breaks, the Aggressive Expansion starts.
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Bitcoin - BTC comparing Alligator cross-over 1.🔴 2.⚪️ 3.🔵 4.🟢Comparing Alligator cross-over...
1.🔴
2.⚪️
3.🔵
4.🟢...
...dear BTC and Crypto Nation👀
Will call out loud for you when next 3.🔵 occurs🚨🚨
Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗
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Disclaimer:
Not financial advice
Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion