BITCOIN: Initiating a rally to 34,300 based on the STOCHRSI.Bitcoin keeps the 1D MA50 intact as Support inside the Channel Up since the start of the year. The 1D technicals turned neutral (RSI = 51.000, MACD = 329.200, ADX = 26.387) therefore starting to build up the conditions for buying again.
The 1D STOCHRSI formed an LL pattern and the previous three such formations inside the Channel, ended up with rallies of at least +16%. Buy and target this minimum rally projection (TP = 34,300).
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Bitcoin-btcusd-btc
BITCOIN Early August will trigger a massive rally!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has established itself above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) making steady Higher Highs since the start of the year and on the week of August 07 2023 is about to complete 60 weeks since the 1W RSI bottom (the Bear Cycle's technical bottom if it wasn't for November's FTX crash).
In the last two Cycles, the 60 week mark from the RSI bottom, triggered the start of a strong rally (green Channel Up) that reached +359% from the Cycle's bottom. Every Cycle can be viewed as an Ascending Triangle with the Top/ Resistance starting from the Bear Cycle's first Lower High. On the 2014/ 2015 Cycle the Resistance was at +300%. In 2019 the +359% mark was reached much earlier due to the Libra euphoria. Also the sudden collapse exactly after the 60 week completion was due to the March 2020 COVID crash, a non-technical irregularity. The Channel Up started shortly after regardless, harmonizing the patterns, right when the 1W MA50 was regained.
Notice how even the 1W RSI sequences look similar with each other, with the Lower Highs trend-line standing out.
In any case on the current Cycle, the +359% mark matches exactly the $69800 All Time High (ATH), while a +300% rise sets a Target at $63000. One thing looks certain based on this model, that the 60 week count is almost up and in August we can see the start of a new rally towards this target zone. Scale your buys accordingly!
Buy what do you think? Are you expecting BTC to follow this pattern of the previous Cycles or have a different projection in mind? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Near the 1D MA50, ready for a pump to $34000Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been consolidating for nearly a full month (since the June 23rd High) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is only 1000 points away. Since the bullish break-out exactly at the start of the year, BTC has used the 1D MA50 as the short-term Support and more specifically the bounce level before each Higher High.
As you see on this chart, the movement since the start of 2023 has been fairly Cyclical, a Higher Highs rejection starts a correction, which when the 1D MA50 breaks (1D candle closes below it), extends towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This sequence current has the last Higher High to give and we expect to start any time. Our target is $34000.
Do you think the 1D MA50 will hold or break? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD D1 - Long SignalBTCUSD D1
As mentioned on the above DXY analysis, slight adjustment to the SL positioning here on BTC, to cover yesterdays wick lows. Not entirely sure what to expect going forward.
Sitting on our hands at the moment until we get some sort of confirmation on where we may expect the dollar to head going forward. Break downside on DXY = BTCUSD long.
Bounce upside on the dollar index could see BTCUSD break that $30k support price.
$BTC cycle projection. Bottom and top targets for next 3 yrsI don't think BTC has bottomed yet. Yes, I'm one of the believers that we'll go sub $10k by March 2024.
After that though, I think the next cycle will be big taking us way over $100k price target.
I've charted out what I believe to be the bottom and top targets for this next cycle.
Let's see what happens.
BITCOIN Consolidation above the Gaussian starts parabolic rally.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is establishing a consolidating position above the Gaussian Channel on the 1W time-frame for the 4th straight week. On all of previous Cycles, such break and consolidation above the Gaussian was the start of a parabolic rally.
As far as targets are concerned, on the first 2 Cycles, the rally reached at least the 3.0 Fibonacci extension level measuring from the previous Cycle High and the Gaussian break-out level. The last Cycle (no3) reached (and exceeded) the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. Taking this 2.0 Fib 'worst' case scenario, we should be expecting this new rally to reach at least the $160000 mark.
Would you agree? Is your expected top higher or lower than 160k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: Finally time to break 31k? Bitcoin appears to be showing signs of retesting the 31k level once again. Should it successfully surpass this level, there is a possibility of a swift surge towards 31.5k. The current price action is displaying constructive patterns, indicating a potentially bullish momentum. However, in the event that the price falls back below the 30,250 level, it would be advisable to adopt a more cautious approach and wait for further market developments. NFA
Bitcoin: Lingering Strength.Bitcoin has been in tight range between the 29.5K support and 31K resistance for about a week. This can be a confusing area for some, especially those who think this is the "top". In this analysis I am going to lay out a couple of points to consider. Again this game is about interpreting and adjusting to new information as the market provides it, NOT to get stuck on irrelevant opinions.
Interestingly enough my Trade Scanner has generated 4 long signals for Bitcoin which have all offered some amount of profit, while at the same time, it is generating sell signals for some of the popular alt coins like MATIC, BNB, etc. What is going on here? This is a typical sign of relative weakness. It means that IF Bitcoin retraces further and takes out the 29.5 to 28K support zone (see blue square on chart), then these alts are likely to outperform on the short side. IF Bitcoin breaks the 31K resistance on the other hand, the shorts are not likely to perform. Since Bitcoin is still in a broader bullish trend, it is makes more sense to bet on the bullish break out until it proves otherwise. I often remind followers that counter trend signals or conflicting situations like these should be considered with LOW expectations or not at all. Bitcoin is the leader, like the S&P500 is for stocks.
What about the Bitcoin hesitation at 31K? Isn't this a bearish sign? Not in the context of a broader bullish structure. Weakness is often asserted QUICKLY around resistance levels. When price lingers around a resistance level, it is often a sign of strength. In terms of order flow, what typically happens in these situations is lots of shorts pile in, mistaking price hesitation for weakness. IF there is any bullish catalyst that comes out of no where, these shorts are going to contribute significantly to the bullish break out since they will get squeezed out of their positions. I'm not biased, I am just describing the situation that probability tends to favor based on other structural factors such as trend and levels.
How am I going to trade around this situation? For one, I am not interested in swing trades in the 31K area long or short. On the swing trade time frame and for Bitcoin in particular I prefer high probability signals on the side of the broader trend (and I still don't short Bitcoin). This means I have to WAIT for a test of the 28K support zone. If the market breaks out without such a test, then I miss the swing trade. I'm okay with that.
As far as smaller time frames, I am open to day trades if I see signals in the 30K area (like the trade scanner has been generating). The thing is, expectations have to be VERY low. That means if I can get away with 200 to 400 points, that is a win. Whether the market breaks out or not is irrelevant when I work with smaller time frames. Having an objective mindset improves your chances of a consistently positive performance NOT a GREED mindset.
One of the most common beginner mistakes I see is trying to maximize profits. To play this game successfully, you have to learn how to maximize PROBABILITIES for the LEAST amount of RISK. By letting greed shape your decisions, you only set yourself up as profit potential for someone else.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
Crypto Analysis - Bitcoin Monthly Price Action FVGWith so much indecision in the market the sentiment has been forked with Bulls and Bears ... the highest since 2003 according to bloomberg's analysis on the S&P targets for analysts High vs Low targets -
This general sentiment goes thru out markets that just follow an ebb and flow till something happens in that particular sector. A good example of this is Nasdaq bullish movement due to mostly AI boosting tech into new highs. Or the banking industry affecting the Dow.
With that said , Crypto looms with much uncertainty as nations adopt digital currency formed by legislations in their respective localities.
My personal standpoint is from a thesis that price action moves to liquidity and inefficiency. Crypto bull runs left much inefficiency and liquidity sits at key areas on the Monthly Timeframe:
The Annual Range midpoint for 2022 is noted at 31850
Orderblocks from June 2021 Mean threshold for Open to Close - 36168
Range midpoint 35061
A Fair Value Gap is formed for the month of May 2022
Quad levels for this area:
High - 37590
upper quad - June 2021 OB mean Threshold
Consequent Encroachement - Near June Close 2021
Lower Quad - 33370
Low, IOFED = ’22 Annual Range Midpoint
COINBASE:BTCUSD
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
BINANCE:BTCUSD
BTCUSD Is accumulating buyers for the next jump to 40k.BTCUSD has been trading sideways for nearly the last 2 weeks.
The long term pattern is a Channle Up since the start of the year and this appears to be the accumulation phase that technically precedes the Higher Highs.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 40000 (Gap 3 from the Bear Cycle).
Tips:
1. Every Higher High on this Channel Up has filled a Lower High gap from the 2022 Bear Cycle. The next one is marginally over the 40000 level.
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Bitcoin - Possible paths to 31k3 days ago BTC hit 200 weekly MA @ 25k
I'm concentrating now my view on the 31k mark, which represents the 1.618 fib of this precedent move AND a big support zone from the retracement from May-July 2021
From here we can see 2 possible ways :
- A breakout of the weekly 200 MA (25K) and a move up as fast as the precedent one to 31k, to maybe meets the line of the channel we are actually in since 2 years
- Some retracement from here between 17k5 and 20k5 before, following the fib retracement lines. After this we should see some struggle at 25k because the line of the channel will have moved to this area therefore the weekly 200MA will constitute an even bigger resistance
16k MUST HOLDS
BITCOIN is showing the way to Gold. Lift-off soon.For a little over a year (since April 2022), Gold and Bitcoin have been on a remarkably tight positive correlation as when one rose or declined, the other followed.
We see an incredible surge in the price on Bitcoin in the past week with Gold however failing to follow, declining instead, breaking for now this long term correlation.
As the market lacks the fundamental reasons for Gold to decline more on the long term (the Dollar is on a downtrend while the US10Y has hit an 8 month Resistance), we expect the correlation to return and for Gold to follow Bitcoin's lead higher.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy Gold on the current price.
Targets:
1. 1975 short term (first Resistance).
2. 2050 long term (final Resistance).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) on Gold is on a Rising Support dating from July 20th 2022, almost 1 year. We can't display this on this chart, but if it holds, it empowers the buy signal given.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Has Started the Next Bullish LegShort term view in Bitcoin (BTCUSD) from November 21, 2022 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse with extension (nesting). Up from November 21, 2022 low, wave (1) ended at 25270 and dips in wave (2) ended at 19569 as the chart below shows. The crypto-currency has extended higher in wave (3) with internal subdivision as a 5 waves impulse. Up from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at 26533 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 23940. Bitcoin has extended higher in wave ((iii)) towards 29380, pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 27833. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 31035 which completed wave 1.
Pullback in wave 2 ended at 24756 with internal subdivision as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 1, wave (a) ended at 26981, wave (b) ended at 29851, and wave (c) ended at 25800. This completed wave ((w)) in higher degree. Wave ((x)) rally ended at 28452 with internal subdivision as a zigzag. Up from wave ((w)), wave (a) ended at 27666, pullback in wave (b) ended at 25878, and wave (c) ended at 28452. This completed wave ((x)) in higher degree. The crypto currency extends lower in wave ((y)) with internal subdivision as a double three. Down from wave ((x)), wave (w) ended at 25350, wave (x) ended at 27388, and wave (y) ended at 24756. Near term, as far as pivot at 19553 low stays intact, expect Bitcoin to extend higher.
BITCOIN Knocking on 30k door and targeting 40000 if it breaksBitcoin / BTCUSD crossed and closed yesterday not only over the 1day MA50 for the first time since May 6th but also the Falling Resistance coming staight from the April 14th High.
That is a major bullish break out signal, similar in magnitude with those of January and March. Their rallies completed a +54.50% and +58.00% rise. That is +3% difference.
Adding +3% at 58.00% gives us a potential +61.00% rise that goes straight to the 40k Resistance, which is the High of May 4th.
Is is bye bye 30k, hello 40k from now on?
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BTCUSD: Testing the 1D MA50. Buy the candle close.BTCUSD is on neutral technicals on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 52.076, MACD = -177.600, ADX = 37.429) as it remaing inside the two month Channel Down but hit its top today, as well as the 1D MA50 for the first time since May 29th. If it closes the 1D candle over it (hasn't done so since May 6th), we will buy the breakout and target R1 (TP = 32,400), which is a 12 month top (since May 31st 2022). If it gets rejected though, we will wait until contact is made with the 1D MA200 before buying, with the same target.
The 1D RSI trend is fairly similar with December 2023. It has also a LH trendline, which if broken, gives its own buy signal.
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Bullish Reversal Bitcoin 28K?Bitcoin finds support off the 25K support area as I have been writing about for weeks. On Thursday I sent a note to my members pointing out the inside bar development. As a result some of them took the swing trade long (almost 1K points in profit). The take profit area continues to be in the 28K resistance area (R:R should be around 1.5:1). There was absolutely no reason to short this in the 25K area on this time frame.
The swing trade idea is based on the broader price structure which continues to remain bullish. The 25K area serves as a higher low support within a broader bullish trend. As long as this holds, I will anticipate higher prices over the near term. Higher lows often lead to higher highs and at this magnitude, that can translate into a push into the low 30Ks (this can take weeks to play out). This is NOT a forecast, it is a basic expectation in light of the information available now.
Interestingly enough, my trade scanner is more likely to call Bitcoin short which has been profitable in recent weeks, but would be a low probability idea in light of the bigger picture.
Signals that are based on smaller time frames carry less weight than signals on larger time frames. You need to be able to separate the two in order for your trades to have a better chance of a positive outcome.
If you missed the swing trade long, the next best thing to do is WAIT for a potential retest of support. It may or may not appear. This setup can develop in the form of a double bottom followed by a confirmation candlestick pattern. If I see it, I will share it.
Overall, it is important to keep in mind, the markets in general are in a lower volume season. Especially now that we are getting close to the next big holiday in the US. Markets can still move, but often trade ideas and setups can be very slow to develop. If anything you want to avoid taking too many trades, forcing trades, and clinging to opinions. Remember all that SEC drama a week ago? Neither does anyone else.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
Bitcoin on the rise. Where to sell?Hi everyone.
Last 3 weeks we've seen incredible strength from bulls. There are no doubts that bulls are in control. There were not any signeficent pullbacks during this pump. Many traders stayed on the sideline waiting for 10k.
However, it looks like everyone already forgot that BTC printed for the first time ever a Yearly bearish engulfing candle.
On crypto twitter you can see many analysts saying that Bitcoin has started a new Bull Market and it will go over 100k .
We believe that in the next few days Bitcoin will not give a chance to jump on the train for those that didn't buy at lower prices, but as we had a Yearly Bearish engulfing candle for the first time ever, it's doubtful that it will be left without any impact on the market.
It's probable that reaching new ATH will take way longer than everyone thinks.
There's a strong resistance around 28600$ - 30000$.
Moreover, the SuperGuppy indicator most likely will curve to the upside in the next few weeks and the upper lines of the SuperGuppy will be around 29k-30k which corrresponds with the price resistance therefore this is where we see a potential exit point for bulls and entry for bears.
What do you think? Do you agree? Feel free to share your opinion in the comment section.
BITCOIN Strong long-term buy signal by the BBWP!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just flashed one of the rarest buy signals on the 1W time-frame. The Bollinger Band Width Percentile (BBWP) bottomed at 0%, giving a narrow width signal. Historically, when the price was above the 1W MA20 (red trend-line) during that signal (4 times/ green circle), it skyrocketed shortly after, while when it was below (1 time/ red circle) it dropped massively.
At the moment the price is on the 1W MA20 and it will be interesting to see if BTC closes above or below it, as it can influence the trend of the coming weeks. What do you think, will it close above it and skyrocket or below and decline? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN The Megaphone bottoms lower, unless this breaks first.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) made a new Lower Low since the short-term Channel Down started on April 14 and is rebounding in the past five hours. The long-term pattern remains a Bullish Megaphone and this Channel Down is the corrective wave towards the Higher Lows trend-line. For as long as it holds, it is likely to see it bottom on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) just like it happened on the March 10 Higher Low.
Be prepared though to buy earlier if the price closes a 1D candle above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which hasn't happened since May 06 (exactly 1 month ago). In either case, our target is the next Resistance at 32400 (May 31 2022 High), which is where the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) is headed to, the last remaining MA Resistance.
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