Bitcoin-btcusd-btc
Bitcoin: Overlooking The Wave Count?Bitcoin appears to be in a smaller magnitude Wave 4 (see chart) which implies one more push higher to complete the impulse structure. such a move can see price into the mid to high 46Ks over the next couple of weeks. While this is good news for those who have been or are looking to go long, there is one technical problem that is likely being overlooked by most.
I am using the general wave count idea to illustrate the smaller magnitude impulse structure at hand. I am not accounting for where Bitcoin is on the broader magnitude. If you go out to a monthly time frame (not illustrated here) the risk is much more obvious. The completion of the current impulse appears to be a Wave C of a large magnitude B (I will review this further in my stream tomorrow).
This is important because IF this structure turns out to be true, then the coming corrective wave is likely to be a broader C Wave. This can take price back to levels completely unexpected or foreseen at this time. An extreme instance can be a test of the structure low at 15K. Keep in mind, a wave of this magnitude can take MONTHS or even a year to play out.
While this is NOT meant to be a precise forecast, it does highlight important RISKS, particularly for investors. Current levels are NOT attractive because there is a greater chance these are cycle highs. It should be no surprise that the faketuber thumbnail titles are once again coming out with "it's just getting started" and "early investors will make millions".
Markets are mostly random and do not operate on logic. There is no way to know if this bearish scenario will play out or not it is a function of perception. The third leg of this rally was initiated by EFT news and halving anticipation. Realize that bearish perception of the same magnitude can also come of out no where.
For these reasons, I control risk by having LOW expectations of further potential at current levels. Risk is controlled by your category of strategy. Day trades and swing trades are the best way to navigate current levels for the coming month at least. The idea being not getting caught with longs at cycle highs and assuming the MOST risk while letting others out for a nice profit.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BTCUSD: Amazing similarity with 2020. Will the 1D MA50 hold?Bitcoin has so far remarkably followed the fractal that followed the March 2020 COVID crash. Of course that was a pattern on the second phase of that Bull Cycle, whilst now (chart on the left) was the first rebound of the Bull Cycle. Nevertheless, the similarities are striking. Especially on the RSI's part. The 1D technical outlook is bullish (RSI = 60.001, MACD = 1547.200, ADX 26.937) and as long as the 1D MA50 holds, there is reason not to expect a bullish extension. Fractal-wise we are in a situation similar to the November 26th 2020 pullback, which gave way to a short term consolidation.
Do you think the 1D MA50 and initiate a new bullish wave?
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BITCOIN FULL REVIEWthis would be a little long idea, I'm sincerely asking you to read until the end with all the comments to understand my idea completely.
I'm gonna analyze the bitcoin chart from weekly to hourly time frame and using some kind of different indicators to see as much reaction and knots as we can to find the proper behavior of price since the last dump.
generally, I have 2 kinds of view for this idea: 1- bullish and. 2- correctional. I believe there is no falling or another dumping view for this chart anymore ( at least until there is no global financial crisis ).
we start from weekly :
as I see from the start of the bullish movement in march 2020 we reach the ATH of almost $65k which was the 0.68 point of FIBO extension, then we had a retrace to 0 points of it.
As can be seen from the past chart. The price will not grow evenly, so we need retracements along the way.
And given the location and collisions of the candlesticks with the specified levels, the price may be currently in a place that needs a retracement.
From the beginning of the last uptrend on July 19, 2021, until now, we have started a perfect bullish movement, and now it is possible to retrace it by reaching the first target, which is the range of 0.38 Fibo and median fork.
considered the target :
Given that the static channel front range (indicate in purple) with a green line ( representing the 50% range of the fork) can indicate a good level for the target of the corrective movement.
BITCOIN Megaphone breached! How high can the price go?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke yesterday above the Bullish Megaphone pattern that kept it at bay since the October 24 High. The previous Bullish Megaphone of September - October technically served as a consolidation belt before the price broke upwards to deliver a +31.86% peak from the Megaphone's last Higher Low and +40.50% from its first Low.
The ROC shows a similar behavioral structure between the two patterns. If it continues this way, then a new +31.50% leg will make a perfect contact on 48220, which is the March 28 2022 High, essentially the Bear Cycle's first Lower High and a key Resistance level of the current Bull Cycle. Technically, as long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) holds (has been doing so since Sep 28), that is a realistic end target for this bullish wave.
But what do you think? Do you agree that this is a likely extension for this rally before the price pulls back or you expect a pull back now? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Hello April 2022! 40k cleared!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke above the psychological 40000 mark, trading now even above 41k. Those are levels that we haven't seen since the week of April 18 2022! And we don't know yet where this euphoric (on Fed, ETF anticipation) candle will stop.
Technically, the next Resistance level is the 48220 High that was the first Lower High made after the November 2021 All Time High, on the week of March 28 2022. With the current trend structure it is not unrealistic to hit this zone as the pattern remains a Channel Up since the November 2022 market bottom. The current bullish leg resembles that of March 2023 and the price action now is on a course to price the new Higher High near the 48220 Resistance.
Beyond that it is high speculation but if it continues to repeat the waves of the Channel Up and the sequence after the April 10 2023 High, we could see a Falling Wedge bottoming close to Halving 4 (expected in April 2024) and as you are all aware of, the supply shock that the Halving causes to BTC, should gradually set in motion the Parabolic Rally of the Bull Cycle.
In addition to the above, BTC is about to complete in the next 2-3 weeks the first ever Golden Cross on the 1W time-frame, which is when the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). It will be really interesting to see how the market will react for the first time to such a bullish technical pattern.
But what do you think? Do you think that Channel Up is too scripted to be true? If not, can Bitcoin test 48k next straight away or a pull-back to test the middle/ bottom of the Demand Zone would be more realistic? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: Break To 45K Or 35K?Bitcoin has broken the 38K minor resistance and has tested the 40K whole number. The entire range between 38 and 40K is a resistance zone. Based on my thought framework, I place more emphasis on the probability of a short term bearish outcome from this level. This means risk for new longs is even HIGHER than it was at the 38K minor resistance. Based on this idea, I anticipate a retrace back to the 37 to 38K area (now a minor support) over the coming week (see chart illustration).
These situations are particularly hard for shorts. In a recent weekly update video I made, I pointed out that the price lingering around 38K could be interpreted as a sign of strength. I come to such a conclusion because price usually REJECTS resistance levels quickly, which it tried to do previously. This lures more shorts, particularly on smaller time frames, traders who do not have the perspective or experience to recognize the hidden strength.
This is precisely why in my previous article, I described a short day trade example, specifically mentioned to NOT expect much more than a move of 200 or so points. Counter trend setups are usually plentiful in these situations, but their potential is LOW.
While at the same time, price continues to flirt with a location that is not attractive for longs on the swing trade time frame. When risks are high on both sides of the market (bullish trend, but lingering at resistance) I have found it is most effective to either keep expectations very small on both sides (day trades only) OR just stay out completely until a higher probability scenario develops (test of support in bullish trend).
One more observation I want to point out is the weekly wave count (not illustrated here). If you go back to December of 2022, and begin the count there, the current wave appears to be a 5 of 3. If that's true, it points to the increased possibility of a Wave 4 corrective structure back to the 35K area support over the coming months. If a 5th wave appears after that, it implies a a test of the 45K area (this can take months). This is NOT to be meant as a forecast, but instead a point of reference to gauge risk.
Being in holiday mode, all of the markets are at risky levels. Take a look at S&P, bonds are also at a resistance level, etc. Don't get sucked into the hype that comes with this. Pay attention to LEVELS relative to their structure and constantly gauge and adjust RISK otherwise you will be fleeced. This game is NOT for your benefit that is why in my opinion the BEST DEFENSE wins.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
Bitcoin Buy🟢and Sell🔴signals by Stochastic Momentum IndexLook at this great Bitcoin Buy🟢and Sell🔴signals by the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) with modified settings
Despite one false signal🟠quite great swing Trade gains dear BTC and Crypto Nation😎
Follow for the next cross❌update👀
Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗
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Disclaimer:
Not financial advice
Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
BITCOIN on the verge of a global money supply rally.On today's study we plot Bitcoin (BTCUSD) against two unique formulae that encompass the basic essence of the global money supply. The formula in blue has a differentiation towards Chinese bond yields while the orange on the Chinese Yuan. Both are regressed against the U.S. Dollar and the batch of the U.S. Balance Sheet, Chinese Central Bank Balance Sheet and the ECB's Assets.
BTC bottoms exactly when the orange trend-line bottoms and it starts the parabolic rally of its Bull Cycle when the blue trend-line bottoms on a Lower Low. Right now blue has started to rise after just bottoming on a Lower Low.
This is contrary to common belief and traditional Halving theory, but according to the above monetary metrics BTC may just be starting a new parabolic rally much earlier than anticipated.
Do you agree or it's too soon and you'll wait for the Halving? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD: Right where it's supposed to be.Bitcoin is on the very healthy bullish technicals on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 60.823, MACD = 1089.300, ADX = 23.103) extending a controlled uptrend. The 1W timeframe remains overbought though (RSI = 74.426) as there has been no hard correction since mid August. Perhaps the relief in late weeks is an attempt of 1D to neutralize the overbought state on 1W without a strong correction.
Regardless of this, Bitcoin is right where it's supposed to be when compared to the previous Cycles. On this chart you see the harmonic structure of every bottom that leads to cyclinder pattern that ultimate paves the wave for the end of Cycle rally.
There has always been one extreme event' crash on every Cycle, after which the market bottomed and never looked back. It was COVID and Bitfinex before, this time we had FTX and now the market shouldn't break the 1W MA50 again before the next Bear Cycle starts. All that's left now to do is see how close the price will be to the 1W MA50 in the next Halving (April 2024) as from that point onwards the parabolic rally can start any moment.
See how our prior idea has worked:
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BITCOIN Monthly RSI tells you where the Cycle Top will be!Following our recent Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Thanksgiving study on the trend-line angles, we decided to expand it a bit further and apply a similar reasoning on the RSI, this time on the 1M (monthly) time-frame.
The result is more than informative as, with the additional use of the Fibonacci Channel levels for better display, we see that from bottom to top, every Cycle displays an RSI trend-line on a 40° angle (approximately). Applying the same measurement on the current Cycle, we get a rough date for the next Top at around March 2025. This doesn't of course give a dollar figure of BTC's price at that time but rather tells you to (at least) start considering taking (some) profits on your holdings.
Do you agree with that model? Are going to sell around that date? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: Playing 35K to 38K Range.Bitcoin range is confirmed between 35K and 38K (see blue rectangles on chart). As I went over in my previous article and stream, assign probabilities to these levels UNTIL one of them breaks. Since the broader trend (price structure) is still BULLISH, the resistance area (38K to 40K) is favored to break while the 35K support is more likely to hold. Using these expectations is like assigning loose probabilities to the levels which can adequately prepare you for potential opportunities while mitigating risk.
The purpose of this article is to provide insight and perspective into the scenario that I believe is most probable for the coming week or two. It is based on my evaluation process which is focused purely on price action principles. I am not always right, nor do I expect to be because first and foremost I accept markets are mostly random (not ALWAYS random).
Capitalizing on the current range is easier said than done mostly because of lack of perspective, poorly defined system, emotional baggage, etc. Just as a side note, I asked my followers in my previous stream how they would trade around this particular scenario. They all answered it correctly (they've been following me for a while).
Here is what I suggest: If you are AGGRESSIVE: day trade shorts off the resistance. Right now 37,200 is the short entry on the daily time frame. This can be used on smaller time frames as a point of reference for day trades. "Why?" you ask? Day trades keep your risk smaller because your stop and take profit should be proportionally smaller (lower expectations). For example, if you sell 37,200 you should be looking for a move to 37K or maybe 36,950 max. If you expect more, you are asking for trouble. This is a broader BULLISH trend remember?
If you are conservative: WAIT for a test of 35K and then look for a bullish reversal confirmation on the daily time frame. Since this would be a trade on the side of the trend, it would be reasonable to have a higher profit expectation. A swing trade would be more appropriate here with a profit expectation of about 1500 to 2K points. Again, WAITING for confirmation is KEY. If 35K breaks, then you need to reevaluate and adjust to the new information.
Keep in mind, the scenarios I am describing here are one of countless possibilities. Price may not touch the 35K area. Price may reverse off of 37K and break out. Or maybe the 35K support breaks and the structure changes. The idea is NOT to get married to a scenario but instead be prepared IF one appears otherwise you adjust expectations.
The human element of markets is what contributes to its repetitive tendencies. These tendencies are frequent but NOT constant. As a trader it is in your best interest to WAIT until probabilities are stacked in your favor, otherwise you are simply gambling. It's like playing lousy poker hands over and over and making the other players at your table rich.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
The power of the black swan fractal.MIL:BTC will see a pre-halving ATH if it keeps copying previous cycle's post-black swan fractal.
After the FTX crash, we copied each phase that occurred after the COVID crash. If this continues, we'll see a new ATH early 2024. The ETF catalyst could make it happen.
BITCOIN TO FALL TO $18000 THEN RISE TO $100,000I am still temporarily still bearish on Bitcoin . $35-42k zone.
Bitcoin will fall to $18k then rise to $100k.
Pain before Joy
Harmonic Pattern : Bearish Crab
BTC will play in the resistance zone $37-42k.
Sell off to $20k (etf news will cause this sell off)
Massive bullrun from $18-20k to $100k in 2025
Bitcoin: 35K Test For New Long?Bitcoin has rejected the 40K area resistance swiftly over the previous week but that bearish momentum has also failed to follow through. What is going on here? This can be a bullish consolidation as long as the minor support at 35K stays intact. The higher probability opportunity in this case would be a double bottom or failed low off of the 35K support (see illustration on chart).
What IF 35K breaks? This would increase the possibility for a test of the 32 to 30K major support zone. A location that would still justify risks on the long side since the broader bullish structure would still be in play at that point.
Keep in mind this analysis is best suited for day trades and swing trades only. For example, waiting for long confirmations on a smaller time frame at these specified supports offers a better chance of a positive outcome as long as your EXPECTATIONS are in line with your time frame. If you don't understand this, do NOT risk real money.
Those who immerse themselves in news, logic, gimmicks to explain market movements or worse, forecast them are the MOST likely to be fleeced. The best we can do is form short term expectations based on recent price behavior. As price structures and levels change, our expectations should also change. If our goal is to generate a profit, then it is in our best interest to align with what the MARKET implies, NOTHING ELSE.
To be clear, the purpose of outlining this scenario is to PREPARE for a potential opportunity on the swing trade time frame that may develop over the coming week. Reacting to the price action at current levels is more likely to produce a random outcome. Random is not how you build accounts.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
On the cusp of a legendary runLooking at the chart you can see we found support at the 200 Ema using 2 week candles at the beginning of this year. Price has more than doubled since then. We've regained the 8 Ema over the 21 and are starting to expand rapidly. Edge to edge cloud trade would put us at $42,500 as a short term target. The only thing that has kept this run in check so far is the 77 Vwma. I believe if we can decisively break that, Bitcoin will start a historic bull run topping out around $336,000 based on a fibonacci plot from a previous move. This is all without taking into the likelihood of a spot Bitcoin ETF slated to be approved by January 10th, 2024. That could be the catalyst to finally push through the 77 Vwma. All dips are for buying for the immediate future in my opinion and will be adjusting my trading strategy accordingly. Best of luck tradingviewers.
Bitcoin's next impulse They say there are two pairs of everything in the universe just like two possible scenarios seen on this chart (White & Yellow arrows)
Bitcoin's Overlapping .5 fib and top of the weekly cloud is the target as price could and should respect the 4hr cloud
In theory...
Prevailingnine 11.7.23
Current structure looks bullish lets see how it develops
Bitcoin: Bears Are Active 35K.Bitcoin is exhibiting signs of exhaustion around the 35K resistance area. A failed high can potentially develop here which can lead to a retest of the 32K support AREA over the coming week. This activity should not be too surprising since it appears to be motivated by rumors rather than reality.
People love throwing around opinions and pointing to explanations (human nature again). That's great if you consider the financial markets as a form of entertainment. If you are interested in making money and managing risk, then you should only be concerned with probabilities, not opinions.
In this situation the conservative trader would WAIT for the retrace into the support area. From there look for a price action setup and confirmation for a new long. This means WAITING for the 33 to 32K area test followed by a reversal pattern. The broader price structure is still bullish which means probabilities still favor the long side (assuming a test of support).
The aggressive trader would be considering short setups on smaller time frames off the 35K resistance anticipating the pull back. While this is plausible at such levels, going counter trend requires keeping expectations LOW since probability generally favors buying.
Confused? Then just stay out. Having a strict set of rules solves this problem because either the criteria is met or it is not. This is where bots (like my trade scanner) shine.
Since I don't short Bitcoin, the conservative scenario is the one I wait for.
It is also important not to get swayed by general sentiment. The previous week gave us some market optimism by implying rates will have to pause or be cut. Keep in mind, like Bitcoin was motivated by fake news apparently, markets can also be temporarily affected by perceptions of the future. Short term movements (especially ones that do not have any significant changes on the broader structure) are likely to be temporary reactions. It is best to think of them this way UNTIL they prove otherwise. A couple of green candles on the 10 Year note futures do NOT confirm a new bullish trend.
Markets are RANDOM for the most part. If you are focusing on anything but weighing probabilities, you have yet to realize that chances are an ALGO is on the other side of your trades. Algos are the equivalent of RATIONAL traders/investors which makes for an efficient market. You can't beat efficient markets via conventional means.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BTCUSD You will get another opportunity to buy if you missed thiFew are looking into what has perhaps given historically the most accurate results on Bitcoin, the 1M timeframe. Technically, it has just gottern out of neutrality and turned bullish (RSI = 56.333, MACD = 1504.800, ADX = 27.300) suggesting that the market is past the dangers of the previous Bear Market and has already started the Bull Market.
The current rally is being performed on an October rebound on the 1M MA50. It is not over yet, there are high probabilities of peaking between December and January. Looking at the 1M LMACD, the benchmark is the Bullish Cross that was formed in June (2023). Every prior Bullish Cross, initially delivered a rise then minor pull-back and eventually the final parabolic rally of the Bull Cycle.
We have measured the bottom of the LMACD on each Cycle to its peak and the previous two have been 25 and 27 months in duration respectively. A 25 month estimate for the current Cycles gives us a peak projection for March 2025. We can't of course be certain of the exact peak price but what the LMACD has shown is that every Cycle High is priced when the LMACD hits the 10 year LH trendline. Best to realize profits on your Bitcoins near that level.
Before that, Bitcoin should give us one final pull-back going into the new Halving (April 2024), so that will be your new opportunity to buy if you missed the entry on the current rally.
See how well our prior idea has worked:
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BITCOIN Will a BTC ETF mirror Gold's post approval +350% rise?Undoubtedly it's been the talk of the year. We are talking of course about a potential Bitcoin ETF approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Many analysts believe that BTC's recent rise has been due to euphoria on a potential positive result. Expectations certainly are not always met but this time, they are higher than ever.
** Are Bitcoin and Gold comparable? **
So, do we have any historic framework to relate to and work on? Possibly. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been dubbed as the digital Gold due to its store of value (theoretical) attribute. Even though they are different markets and two assets that certainly have different volatilities, it is understandably so, as Bitcoin (portrayed on the chart by orange trend-line) is relatively new (compared to Gold's traditional monetary backing), on much lower capitalization and is natural to be so volatile in its early stages until mass adoption happens and the market matures.
** Gold's ETF approval pattern **
As a result, Gold's ETF introduction back in March 28 2003 may be the perfect (and perhaps only dependable) comparison we can make if we want to put a potential Bitcoin ETF approval into context. As you can see, Gold (portrayed on the chart by the candles) rose massively by +350% since its ETF approval. The rise from the previous peak (January 1980) to the post ETF one (August 2011), has been +124%. Even though they are on different time-frames (but understandably so as Bitcoin is digital and moves on a much faster pace), we have adjusted BTC's last Bear Cycle and the subsequent first Bull Cycle rally, on Gold's price action from the 1980 peak to the March 2003 ETF approval. Of course this assumes that Bitcoin's ETF will be approved and even more so now, but this is the only basis for comparison we can make. When/ if approved, the width (and price ranges) can be adjusted.
** Bitcoin's projection based on Gold's ETD pattern **
So on the right chart we can see a post ETF approval projection for Bitcoin based on Gold's pattern. As +350% rise would push the price near $160000. The symmetry is astonishing as the peak-to-peak trend-line from BTC's November 2021 High to that potential +350% one (160k) would also be +124%, exactly like Gold's! Amazing coincidence indeed but certainly shows us just how pattern recognition and comparison can give interesting results. Especially on identical fundamentals.
But what do you think? Will a SEC approved Bitcoin ETF follow into Gold's footsteps? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: 36,250 Break To 37K Area?Bitcoin has generated a new swing trade long signal on the daily time frame upon the break of the 26,250 candle high (couple of days ago). This is a momentum continuation pattern and it can lead to a test of the next resistance area around 37K over the coming week. This context is ideal for day trades or swing trades only, these are far fro ideal levels for new investing.
In my previous article I described a test of the 33K resistance followed by a potential pull back. This scenario never came to be and Bitcoin surged through the resistance area, pushing into the 35K resistance. The key takeaway here is this: we can come up with all the scenarios we want and assign probabilities to them, until price confirms the scenario, it carries little weight. In other words, markets are RANDOM and it is ineffective to navigate them successfully with "opinions".
There has not been one confirmed short setup (based on my system) since this rally has begun. There have been 3 long setups on the daily time frame with the third one confirming at the break of 26,250. Having a well defined system for decision making in such an environment cannot be emphasized enough. This is what keeps emotions in check and helps to minimize the nonsense and noise coming from the internet.
The 37K resistance area dates back to 2021 where it served as an important support area. Old support has a tendency to become new resistance which is a function of human behavior.
This is the price area to measure profit potential from, and place take profit orders for swing trades, etc. IF price FAILS to reach this area and instead produces a conflicting signal, adjustments have to be made as soon as possible to risk/reward expectations (like moving stop to break even).
What about rates? And why is Bitcoin rallying while stock market is pushing lows? Markets can be irrational for any reason. I don't waste time trying to figure out why, instead I adjust my expectations and orders to what the markets wants to do, NOT what I "think".
With that being said, my "opinion" (which I do not trade on) is still that interest rates are far from favorable in terms of sustaining a bull market. Just like we had the AI hype in the stock market throughout the summer which went against a rising rate environment. I believe the move in Bitcoin is being engineered in a similar way, except that there is even less regulation.
While I will not trade on such an opinion, I do consider this when it comes to profit expectations and probabilities. Until rates and the Federal Reserve start making some changes, I will NOT be optimistic about any type of asset bubble any time soon. Overly dramatic moves like we have seen are temporary in this environment.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
Bitcoin - Cycle Channel Oscillator left the white box⬜️Bitcoin
Last time the Cycle Channel Oscillator left the white box⬜️BTC went up +1,500%🚨🚨🚨
We left the box again dear Crypto Nation👀
Doesn't it look similar to you so far❓
Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗
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Disclaimer:
Not financial advice
Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion