Bitcoin traffic light scenario🚦Remember my Bitcoin traffic light scenario🚦
🔴Bearish phase
TKD indicator turned from green to red
🟡BTC accumulation phase
TKD indicator forms a top
🟢Bullish phase
TKD indicator turned from red to green
We are on track dear Crypto Nation😎
Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗
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Disclaimer:
Not financial advice
Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
Bitcoin-btcusd-btc
BITCOIN 7 sideways weeks is the norm. Embrace it and make profitBitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the November FTX crash bottom. Inside this pattern, it has already seen a 7 straight week (1W) consolidation phase, two times already and currently it is about to complete the 7th week of the third consolidation phase.
This is taking place right at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up. If the current 1W candle closes in green or with a strong upward closing inside the Channel (as March 06), then most likely we will see a strong bullish 1W candle following such as the ones on January 09 and March 13. The short-term Target is the 1W MA100, which has been holding as Resistance since May 02 2022 (green trend-line), at a projected price of $33000.
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BITCOIN next Top can be at least $200k!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is on a short-term pull-back and much of the crypto community casts doubts again over the recent rally and if this is indeed a new Bull Cycle or a bear market counter trend rally.
In times of short-term uncertainty we tend to rely our channel on the long-term time-frames and for BTC in particular its historic Cycles. Those are patterns that have repeated themselves over and over again, with some variations of course based on the current market conditions.
** The Fibonacci Channels **
Right now the price is above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), on a 5-month rally that hasn't been anything like short-term Bear Cycle rallies. The previous Cycles topped near Fibonacci trend-lines of prior Cycle Channels. For example the December 2017 Cycle Top was formed just below the bottom (Fib 0.0) of the orange Fibonacci Channel that started from the previous Cycle bottom. The November 2021 Top was formed just below the middle (Fib 0.5) of the blue Fibonacci Channel. This could be a +0.5 Fib progression and in that case the Top of the current Cycle might be just below the top (Fib 1.0) of the black Fibonacci Channel that started on the December 2018 bottom.
** The Halvings and $200k **
The 1.0 Fib at the time of (the next) Halving 4 (March 2024) will be above $200000, and as we know after each Halving, Bitcoin posts the most aggressive (parabolic) rally of the Bull Cycle. So that leads us to assume that the Top of the current Bull Cycle will be at least $200k. To give a relative sense of pathing, we have plotted the 'post Halving rallies' of the previous three Cycles on the current Channel starting on Halving 4.
Do you think that we will see $200k by 2025 Q3? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD on a strong buy signal supported by the 1day MA50BTCUSD is still trading inside the Channel Up from the start of the year.
Since March 13th the 1day MA50 has been basically supporting. The 1day MA100 is the long term Support.
There is also an inside Channel that broke upwards on April 10th to complete a 17% rise.
Buy and target 31500, which is still a modest target inside this Channel Up.
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Bitcoin, is it over soon? Back to the 15k region?Looking at the current trend, i am looking for a push upwards where profit from longs should be taken.. Pretty sure its going to get slapped down hard if it pushes up more, which points a level in orange around 15k for me that needs to be re-tested in my opinion (don't shoot me)..
Still in longs for now. But within the two red lines i will look for shorts and what the script tells me!
BITCOIN If the low volume worries you, see this chart!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been on a strong recovery since late November, following the FTX crash but is doing so on Decreasing Volume. This is something that has gotten many market participants worry as decreasing volume during rallies make the trend fragile.
A simple look however at past Cycle bottoms is enough to provide a good understanding of the current situation. As this chart (4D time-frame) shows, there was Decreasing Volume on all previous major market bottoms, especially in times of extreme capitulation such as the March 2020 COVID crash, or the August 2015 Bitfinex crash. With the FTX crash in early November 2022 being such a capitulation even, there should be no surprise that the volume has been decreasing ever since. With BTC almost doubled since then, we can strongly claim that this is a standard Cycle bottom rally.
If we start seeing the volume rising, then it means that the market is most likely headed for the mid Cycle peak, typically before the next Halving.
In any case are you worried about this decreasing volume while the price has been rising or agree that this is common after Cycle bottoms? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN When you see this, it will already be TOO LATE!This is an interesting analysis on the 1W time-frame of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) against the GOLD/SPX ratio(blue trend-line). The conclusion that this comparison offers can be very valuable.
As you see, when the GOLD/SPX ratio peaks and starts pulling back, Bitcoin starts the Parabolic Rally of its Bull Cycle. At the moment the GOLD/SPX ratio is on a Channel Up similar to 2018 - 2019. When the ratio broke that Channel to the upside, it peaked as in February 2016 and started to decline. At the same time Bitcoin kick started its Parabolic Rally.
Will you be on the look-out for such a spike or when it happens it will already be too late? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin - repeat of previous cycle? FOMC correlation!Legend :
Green: repeat of 2015 cycle
Yellow: repeat of 2019 cycle
Vertical Red lines: FOMC meetings
Today 05/03/2023 with the FOMC Fed meeting over, I have highlighted all the fomc meetings as vertical red lines and if we assume a pullback similar to the previous pullback, it could coincide with what usually happens after FOMC meetings and also a retouch of the bull market support band (Horizontal Red line) is a healthier correction like in 2015 cycle.
If Bitcoin follows 2019 cycle, there may not be any pullbacks for next few weeks with a parabolic rise to 40-45k. However, a repeat of 2015 cycle is healthier and sustainable. A repeat of 2019 cycle although can give a parabolic rise to 40-50k, it can fall back to 20k before next year having in April 2024.
With the S&P bullish bias due to the signal we got for bullish trend, we can assume buying the pull backs on bitcoin can help with a healthier accumulation.
I hope you guys are accumulating! If you need the Bitcoin prediction for the bull run after next halving in April 2024, let me know. I will publish my assumptions and forecast!
BTCUSD Double Buy EntryBTCUSD is on the MA50 (1d) with the RSI descending.
On many metrics as well as the price action, it is following a pattern much alike the January-March.
That dropped further to the MA100 (1d) and MA200 (1d) before making a new rally to a new High.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy if the price crosses above the Invalidation trend line.
2. Buy on the MA100 (1d).
Targets:
1. and 2. 35000 which is a 12.40% increase from the previous High as it did on March.
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is what gives away the similarity between the two phases. Technically though, Bitcoin doesn't test the MA100 (1d) many times during Parabolic Rallies.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
BITCOIN Never looked back after breaking this level!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is above the Multiple 3 (black trend-line) of the Fibonacci MAs for the third straight 3W candle. Every time it did so, the price always hit Multiple 4 (yellow trend-line). This level is now at $43300 and rising. Do you think this is BTC's next target within a 6 month time-frame? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN The astonishing symmetry with 2014/15 shows $49k in NovOn today's analysis we look into Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame and compare the current Cycle with that of 2014 - 2017. As you see there is so far an astonishing symmetry between the two, with the price currently consolidating after almost hitting the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level three weeks ago. For the Fibonacci calculations we have used the price top and bottom as suggested by the 1W RSI, which is the backbone of the analysis. This indicates that the Cycle Top (on RSI terms) was on the week of April 12 2021 (and not Nov 08 2021) while the Cycle Bottom was on the week of June 13 2022 (and not in November 2022, which was in the aftermath of the FTX crash).
So far the three Phases have lasted almost the same time. If Phase 3 (yellow) ends this week on a 46 week duration such as November 30 2015, then on the next 1W candle we will start Phase 4 (green), which in 2016 lasted for 28 weeks and on its end hit the 0.786 Fibonacci level. As a result, this is a highly probable target, with the 0.786 Fib being at $49000 and the 28 week span ends on November 13 2023.
With the 1W RSI pulling back after hitting the 70.00 overbought level in April, do you think BTC will start a strong Phase 4 next week towards FWB:49K ? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN How the VIX will push it (along with stocks) much higherYou may be wondering what Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has to do with the S&P500 index (SPX) and the Volatility Index (VIX). Well this chart gives you the answer and sets the tone for the remainder of the year and beyond.
As you see Bitcoin (chart on the left) rebounded on the Higher Lows trend-line that started on the December 2018 Low (and only broke during the COVID crash). The S&P500 (chart in the middle) is following a similar pattern as its Higher Lows trend-line (that only broke during the U.S. - China trade war and the COVID crash) held and gave the index a push last October.
At the same time VIX (chart on the right) has been holding its Higher Lows trend-line up until this month (April). This bearish break-out implies that the index that measures the market volatility will most likely drop further indicating a decline in uncertainty and setting a risk-on tone for stocks and crypto alike. The lower the volatility, the higher risky assets such as stocks and crypto trade.
Do you think that will be the case for the rest of the year and probably beyond after this bearish break-out on VIX? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN hit the 1D MA50 after 40 days!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit yesterday (and closed above it) the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line0 for the first time since March 13. At the same time it almost touched the 0.618 Fibonacci level of the Channel Up, which has been the last level of Support before the bottom of the Channel Up.
The key here are the 1D RSI and LMACD indicators. We've placed both on the same pane and as you see they both imply that we may be in a similar spot as March 07 - 10. Whether we get a macro catalyst (it was the Credit Suisse crisis then) that will pull the price back to the bottom of the Channel Up or not, that remains to be seen.
If BTC closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50, it is possible to see that last pull-back to the bottom of the Channel Up. If not, expect a rebound from current levels. In either case, our target is 33000.
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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The not-so-sexy truth about bitcoin's next bull runRemember when bitcoin made you rich over night? Unfortunately for BTC maximalists, those days might be history.
Fact: Each of the last 3 bull runs has been approximately 19% of its predecessor.
The last bull run ($3124 to $69K) was approximately 22.09x. What's 19% of 22.09x? A measly 4.2x. So, if we assume the bottom is around $17.6k, the next top projects to be around $73.9K. That's a whopping 7% above the previous ATH.
I still think $100K is possible, or even probable in a blow-off-top scenario. But if you're an investor under the age of 60, I wouldn't bet my retirement on old bitty. From a trading perspective however, 4x is a layup, practically guaranteed.
BITCOIN Cycle Phases in a very demonstrative way!post, we are looking into Cyclical phase and demonstrate them in a way like you've never seen before!
Each Cycle consists of the Bear (red), Transition (blue) and Bull (green) Phases. The Bear Phase ends at the bottom of the Cycle, where the Transition starts and typically after the price breaks above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, the Bull Phase starts.
At the moment BTC is above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), has already started its Transition Phase and is expected to stay within it, until the 0.786 Fib breaks. Technically this may not happen before the next Halving (4), which due on May 2024. If it breaks earlier, expect the next Bull Phase (which is usually the most aggressive/ parabolic part of the Cycle) to start earlier.
Do you like this Cycle representation? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
P.S. The Cycles and trend-lines may get distorted and displaced based on your screen display. Adjust the axis accordingly to view the image as it is shown outside the idea.
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No reason to be bearish yet..In the bigger picture, we are still heading up, we may see a week or two or more of corrective price action, as we have reacted off the 0.382 fib-speed fan as well as the 0.382 fib (nice confluence there), however, ultimately, I do think there's a good probability we rise this year into the 0.618 speed fan / 0.618 fib confluence. This also coincides with a bearish looking dollar
And bullish looking equities.
BITCOIN being pumped after China bonds macro cycle bottomIt is not the first time we look into how the Chinese bonds (with our unique CN02Y/CN20Y ratio displayed by the green trend-line) affect Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles:
It is however the first time we add stocks (S&P500 with the blue trend-line) in the mix. We can see the Cyclical behavior of the bond yields ratio as illustrated by the Sine Waves. Every time it bottoms, BTC and stocks bottom as well and start a cyclical rally. Additionally, you can see how the ratio has been on a Channel Down for the past 10 years, supporting the bullish expansion on both Bitcoin and the stock market.
Since the bond yields ratio is already rallying hard with BTC/ stocks following, do you think that this is just the beginning? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD potential short term scenarioBitcoin has given us nice rally from previous buying zone which allowed us to make long positions risk free and book partial profits. After that we got break of previous low, which made incomplete structure from the peak. Now crypto can see 28583-27401 are, which will be next zone for buyers to appear.