My thought of Bitcoin in next timeJust a script of BTC that is the most convincing to me.
This scenario will fail if BTC breaks the resistance level of 27700 (I will stop loss all my positions at this price).
Good luck!
Bitcoin-btcusd-btc
BITCOIN Cycle Phases in a very demonstrative way!post, we are looking into Cyclical phase and demonstrate them in a way like you've never seen before!
Each Cycle consists of the Bear (red), Transition (blue) and Bull (green) Phases. The Bear Phase ends at the bottom of the Cycle, where the Transition starts and typically after the price breaks above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, the Bull Phase starts.
At the moment BTC is above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), has already started its Transition Phase and is expected to stay within it, until the 0.786 Fib breaks. Technically this may not happen before the next Halving (4), which due on May 2024. If it breaks earlier, expect the next Bull Phase (which is usually the most aggressive/ parabolic part of the Cycle) to start earlier.
Do you like this Cycle representation? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
P.S. The Cycles and trend-lines may get distorted and displaced based on your screen display. Adjust the axis accordingly to view the image as it is shown outside the idea.
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BTC Short-term Forecast We're seeing a bit of relief from the rapid fall from 31000. I expect the upward momentum to continue until 28500 before ultimately breaking down with a target of 25000.
No reason to be bearish yet..In the bigger picture, we are still heading up, we may see a week or two or more of corrective price action, as we have reacted off the 0.382 fib-speed fan as well as the 0.382 fib (nice confluence there), however, ultimately, I do think there's a good probability we rise this year into the 0.618 speed fan / 0.618 fib confluence. This also coincides with a bearish looking dollar
And bullish looking equities.
BITCOIN being pumped after China bonds macro cycle bottomIt is not the first time we look into how the Chinese bonds (with our unique CN02Y/CN20Y ratio displayed by the green trend-line) affect Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles:
It is however the first time we add stocks (S&P500 with the blue trend-line) in the mix. We can see the Cyclical behavior of the bond yields ratio as illustrated by the Sine Waves. Every time it bottoms, BTC and stocks bottom as well and start a cyclical rally. Additionally, you can see how the ratio has been on a Channel Down for the past 10 years, supporting the bullish expansion on both Bitcoin and the stock market.
Since the bond yields ratio is already rallying hard with BTC/ stocks following, do you think that this is just the beginning? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC, it pains me to say thisBINANCE:BTCUSDT
Crypto was the easy play today, with eyes closed.
Dang, not often I give crypto credit for easy plays, LOL
BTCUSD potential short term scenarioBitcoin has given us nice rally from previous buying zone which allowed us to make long positions risk free and book partial profits. After that we got break of previous low, which made incomplete structure from the peak. Now crypto can see 28583-27401 are, which will be next zone for buyers to appear.
BITCOIN The next leg up can reach $40000Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to follow the pattern of February - June 2019. The consolidation on the Higher Lows 1 has now been succeeded by a consolidation on Higher Lows 2. On June 10 2019 that started the final rally, roughly symmetrical to the one that took the price from Higher Lows 1 to Higher Lows 2 (+75%), to the HKEX:13900 peak.
If BTC continues to replicate this, then the current Higher Lows 2 should give way to a +48% rise that can take the price to $40000.
Is this how high the next leg up can go? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: Path To 33K Not Easy.Since the 30K break out, it would be wise to adjust relevant support levels. The 28K AREA is the new zone of support that I am watching for the possibility of a new SWING trade long (the previous level was 25K). As you can see from the forecast line that I illustrated on my chart (a week ago), Bitcoin appears to agree with the break out scenario that I outlined in my previous article. The question is: what to do from here? Here is my suggestion.
As an interesting side note, my trade scanner called Bitcoin long 3 days before the 30K break out (talked about this in my recent stream). While I suggest a reward/risk of 1.5:1, this move delivered 2 or 3:1 at least if your stop was placed at a proportional level. I mention this because my system chart is potentially setting up to generate a new buy signal over the next few days. While there is no guarantee that it will, or that it will work, its track record so far has been compelling. The signals are based on trend following criteria and will not generate any counter trend signals.
As illustrated on my chart, price is now hesitating around the mid point between the 28K support and 33K resistance zone. The 30K break out confirms the bullish structure and increases the probability of 33K being tested over the next two weeks. These facts suggest that shorting at current levels is NOT favored in terms of my SWING trade strategy. For the contrarians, the lower risk alternative is to work on smaller time frames and do NOT expect an outsized retrace (like 25K). A move into the mid to low 29s is somewhat reasonable.
At the same time, price is still NOT at an attractive level for swing trade longs EITHER. This situation is common and same as the short side, longs should be considered on smaller time frames only, along with proportional expectations. What separates the two scenarios is: the broader structure IS bullish which means catalysts are more likely to take price to the next resistance (33K).
The key to navigating this is: adequate RISK parameters. STOP obsessing over news, and other frivolous information. My trade scanner is ignorant to news, opinions, emotions, gimmicks and retail nonsense. It simply WAITS for criteria to be met.
The IDEAL SWING trade scenario would be a retrace into the 28Ks (see blue square on chart) followed by a long setup with a take profit expectation in the 33Ks. IF price finds support earlier (low 29Ks or even low 30Ks), look for intraday setups with proportionally tighter stops (500 to 1K points is within reason). 33K is NOT a guarantee, it is a potential objective. The reward/risk ratio offers a more effective mechanism to determine exiting positions.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITCOIN Keep it simple. 1W RSI above 70 = rally!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame is about to see its RSI break above the 70.00 overbought barrier. A simplistic yet reliable historical way of viewing the current situation is that every time the RSI broke above this level, BTC was either starting a mega Parabolic Rally or was in the middle of a smaller rally. On five occasions the rallies were very aggressive, on four there were less, the kind of rallies we see at the start of a Bull Cycle.
What is it going to be this time? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN WEEKLYI think this is the path for bitcoin's next move overall a dip into the previous structure and another impulse higher
Prevailingnine 4.12.23
BITCOIN has started riding 'The Bollinger Wave'. Fullspeed rallyBitcoin (BTCUSD) is witnessing a strong green week, following three straight weeks of flat price action that got many questioning the strength and durability of the rally since the start of the year. A simple indicator comes to give the answer on the 1W time-frame. It is the Bollinger Bands that display a very distinct characteristic during BTC rallies (similarly during downtrends as well).
We call that "The Bollinger Wave" and it is the upper Bollinger Band (blue trend-line) on the 1W time-frame that Bitcoin rides as a "wave" during a Bull Rally. The chart on the left shows the last two such rallies, with the current being the 3rd one as the price has been "riding" the upper Bollinger since the week of January 16.
The chart on the right shows all such rallies since 2010. It is easily noticeable that when such rallies start there is now easy or quick stop to them and they are supported by the Bollinger's Basis (orange trend-line). This is the exact same trend-line that offered the strong rebound of March 6th.
How high the current rally can go before getting exhausted is anybody's guess but two things are a fact: a) It has only just started and b) the Bollinger Basis has risen to 22435 and is now the long-term Support.
So what do you think? Will Bitcoin continue to "ride the Bollinger wave"? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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XVSUSDT 76.92% ✅🚀#XVSUSDT
we published and shared this idea with you in our profile here as you can check the previous analysis for #XVSUSDT
and this analysis gave really good and massive profits
Target 4️⃣ : done✅
Entry price: 4.94$✅
Price reached : 8.74$ ✅
Profit: 76.92% ✅🚀🚀🤑
Bitcoin 30K: Play The Breakout?Bitcoin is on the verge of a consolidation break out into the 30Ks, but what is the most effective way to manage the risk presented in this scenario? Price location plays a very important role in shaping trade expectations. Let me explain.
You will notice a path that I have illustrated on the chart. Like I explained a few weeks earlier, this is NOT an absolute forecast, instead it is one possibility out of infinite possibilities. It is NOT about WHEN the market will follow this path, it is about IF it chooses to do so. We are followers in this HIGHLY RANDOM game and the only ability we have is to manage risk.
Here are the factors to consider:
1. The broader price structure continues to support the bullish argument.
2. Price has been consolidating between 26,500 and 29K for weeks.
3. Bitcoin appears to be less correlated to the broader markets in recent weeks.
4. All it needs is a catalyst to set it off and shorts will be forced to cover.
So the bullish break out is favored statistically, the problem is: the LOCATION is FAR from ideal and presents a much higher risk in terms of my swing trade strategy.
Even my newly setup trade scanner has been calling longs in the high 27K area which offered potential profits of a couple of hundred points IF managed carefully. The key to this is using the market context to SHAPE expectations in a way that optimizes RISK.
The way I go about doing this is simple: If I am seeing buy signals in a bullish context that are NOT aligned with a major support, then I have much LOWER expectations of the outcome. This translates into 1) focusing on smaller time frame strategies. 2) Looking to take profits as soon as risk is justified. 3) Time horizon expectations are limited to 1 day or less.
This mind set allows me to participate in scenarios that have a lower probability of following through.
So where is the ideal price for a swing trade with greater probability and reward/risk potential? 25K (see blue square on chart).
Otherwise, watch for a break of the 29,500 area and momentum follow through into the low 30Ks during the week. Also be prepared for a fake out and conflicting signal.
This is NOT a game of opinions, it is a game of adjusting to NEW information as the market presents it.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. Happy holidays to everyone.
BITCOIN Is 300k the true potential of this Cycle?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) isn't backing down, withstanding to perfection so far any noise in the stock market, a development that establishes that its new Bull Cycle is well underway. Having broken above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and what will most likely be the 4th straight weekly closing above it, we can see that it is testing (and so far struggling to break) the key former Support of the Bear Cycle (Fibonacci 1.0).
The previous Cycle made an aggressive rally to the 2.0 Fib extension after it broke above the Bear Cycle's Support (Fib 1.0) and peaked 28 weeks after the bottom. In an amazing act of symmetry, we see that these last two Bear Cycles lasted for 52 weeks each. Since so far the moves are proportional, we cannot easily dismiss the probability of this '1st Rally Phase' being also 28 weeks and reaching as high as the 2.0 Fib, which is a little over $53k.
Beyond this, a year of basically ranged trading wouldn't be unrealistic, until the Halving 4 event (which is programmed for March 2024) that will inflict a huge supply shock and as it did in May 2020, initiate the final, mega parabolic rally of the Bull Cycle. That part of the previous Cycle, from the time BTC reached the 0.2 Fib until its November 2021 peak, lasted 124 weeks. The peak was achieved a little under the 5.0 Fibonacci extension.
A repeat of makes $300000 by October 2025 a plausible target. Does this reveal Bitcoin's true potential for this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN About to wave goodbye to 30k for good if broken?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is ahead of a critical breakthrough on the 1W time-frame. The former Support of the first half of the Bear Cycle is around 30k and is currently being tested. History has shown that when this level gets tested as a Resistance and breaks during the start of a new Bull Cycle, it never gets retested (cannot count the irregularity of a once in 100 years event like the COVID pandemic in March 2020.
At the same time time, when it breaks the 9°Lower Highs trend-line, the Parabolic Rally starts and doesn't look back. All this while the 1W LMACD is on perfect symmetry with the previous Support tests.
Are we about to wave 'bye bye' to 30k for good? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Inverse Head & Shoulders gives historic bull runs!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is in the process of completing a peculiar Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern on a bullish slope. This has historically been extremely bullish for BTC. For reference, we post the most recent such formation (June - August 2021) and the whole 2017 Parabolic Rise which contained 5 similar patterns. The technical target is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, currently a little over $38000.
Do you think that's BTC's immediate target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: Relative Weakness.28K resistance still in play in the face of a dramatic stock market rally over the previous week. This is a sign of relative weakness and speaks volumes about the balance of order flow. The 25K support AREA (see blue square) is the price location that I am WAITING for in order to put on a new SWING trade long.
As a market technician focused on short term movement, I am not concerned with why a market is acting the way it is, I am only concerned with price structure, levels and confirmations. My only purpose is to manage risk and evaluate probabilities, it does NOT get any more complex than that.
With that being said, what is relative strength and why is it so important to be aware of? First, it has NOTHING to do with the RSI. Relative strength is the comparison of one market against a parent market or index. In the case of stocks for example, you would compare the price behavior of your stock to the S&P or Nasdaq. If the S&P rallies, and the stock in question hardly moves, that is a sign that selling activity or at least an absence of buying. Once the S&P becomes weak, the stock in question is likely to outperform on the bear side. This means it would be a good idea to consider short possibilities and avoid any longs.
Bitcoin is an index that I use in comparison to alt coins, but when it comes to comparing Bitcoin, the parent would be the S&P. The correlation fluctuates over time, BUT there has been plenty of instances where these markets generally move together over the short term (this is all relative to the Dollar). So if S&P rallies hard like we have seen over the previous week, Bitcoin should have also. Instead, Bitcoin can't get out of its own way. This implies NO ONE is buying, or if they are, they are being absorbed by greater selling activity.
For this reason, I anticipate once the weakness reasserts itself in the stock market, Bitcoin will correct into the 25K support area. This can take a week or two. In my previous article I described a price scenario of retracing to 25K and the market briefly agreed before it presented another scenario. Perhaps this was the stock market effect. As you should know by now, I don't pretend to know the future, I consider potential scenarios. I adjust with the market because markets are HIGHLY random.
Based on the current position of the bond market (10 Yr Note), the S&P while interesting, has still not proven any sustainability in terms of "bull market". The next retrace will be very telling. No major resistance levels have been taken out yet. This translates into: very high risk for long term stock and Bitcoin/alt positions.
The game plan is still the same: wait for retrace to relevant support, measure risk and WAIT for confirmation before taking a position. This does NOT apply to smaller time frame strategies.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BTCUSD Bearish Cross ahead. Potential for 25500.BTCUSD is very close to printing a Sell Cross of MA50-100 (4h). This has been consistent with sell opportunities in February and March.
Unless the Rising Resistance breaks, a pull back to the MA200 (4h) is more probable.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price as the Sell Cross is pending and we need to be ahead of the price action.
Targets:
1. 25500 (MA200 4h).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is under a Falling Resistance, which is the same Bearish Divergence that led to the February 9th and March 10th bottoms.
Please like, follow and comment!!
BTCUSDT → Strong consolidation. What is BTC preparing for?Bitcoin has been in a strong consolidation for two weeks, which is starting to form a pre-breakdown formation. The next retest of the 28650 level will be able to implement the buyers' plan. What is going on and what to expect from the price?
The flagship is in the stage of realization of the fifth wave. It is worth paying attention to the consolidation.
1. strong consolidation near the resistance level
2. no pullback after the false breakdown of the level 28654
3. many repeated tests of the resistance level
4. the local trend is ascending.
Proceeding from these nuances, we can conclude that the price is about to exit the upside range, break through the resistance level 28654 and go up to 30000, and then to the fibo level 1.618 at 31290 (preliminary target for the 5th wave).
There were no strong fundamentals this week, but there are a number of nuances worth paying attention to:
1. Vitalik Buterin: "there will be no more explosive growth of BTC".
2. Santiment: all major bitcoin transactions this year were made in March, and the nature of the transactions indicates "profit taking".
3. Bitcoin miners' earnings rose to a 10-month high
4. WhaleMap expects volatility to rise on the back of $5 billion worth of whale transactions at current levels. (Recall that the price is in consolidation - gaining energy to move further in one direction or the other)
5. Santiment notes bitcoin's strong dominance on social media among the crowd.
Regards, R. Linda!
btcusdtin my opinion, bitcoin made local high around the 2D supply zone
I think #bitcoin will retest the previous weekly range then make another retest to the local high and smash down into channel TBH.
I am totally bearish on short term
but after the sweep lows, I think the price can touch JUN high.
COINEX:BTCUSDT
Crypto is bullishCrypto has recovered above it's 4 year moving average- historically a very important MA for market bottoms. It should build from this level with upside to 1.2T in the near future. If it can break through that level, it could go to 2-2.5T sometime in the first half of this year. I think an ATH is unlikely given the nature of the previous cycles, but would be welcomed. BTC should give relatively good returns compared to the major altcoins during this bull period.
