Bitcoin: Path To 33K Not Easy.Since the 30K break out, it would be wise to adjust relevant support levels. The 28K AREA is the new zone of support that I am watching for the possibility of a new SWING trade long (the previous level was 25K). As you can see from the forecast line that I illustrated on my chart (a week ago), Bitcoin appears to agree with the break out scenario that I outlined in my previous article. The question is: what to do from here? Here is my suggestion.
As an interesting side note, my trade scanner called Bitcoin long 3 days before the 30K break out (talked about this in my recent stream). While I suggest a reward/risk of 1.5:1, this move delivered 2 or 3:1 at least if your stop was placed at a proportional level. I mention this because my system chart is potentially setting up to generate a new buy signal over the next few days. While there is no guarantee that it will, or that it will work, its track record so far has been compelling. The signals are based on trend following criteria and will not generate any counter trend signals.
As illustrated on my chart, price is now hesitating around the mid point between the 28K support and 33K resistance zone. The 30K break out confirms the bullish structure and increases the probability of 33K being tested over the next two weeks. These facts suggest that shorting at current levels is NOT favored in terms of my SWING trade strategy. For the contrarians, the lower risk alternative is to work on smaller time frames and do NOT expect an outsized retrace (like 25K). A move into the mid to low 29s is somewhat reasonable.
At the same time, price is still NOT at an attractive level for swing trade longs EITHER. This situation is common and same as the short side, longs should be considered on smaller time frames only, along with proportional expectations. What separates the two scenarios is: the broader structure IS bullish which means catalysts are more likely to take price to the next resistance (33K).
The key to navigating this is: adequate RISK parameters. STOP obsessing over news, and other frivolous information. My trade scanner is ignorant to news, opinions, emotions, gimmicks and retail nonsense. It simply WAITS for criteria to be met.
The IDEAL SWING trade scenario would be a retrace into the 28Ks (see blue square on chart) followed by a long setup with a take profit expectation in the 33Ks. IF price finds support earlier (low 29Ks or even low 30Ks), look for intraday setups with proportionally tighter stops (500 to 1K points is within reason). 33K is NOT a guarantee, it is a potential objective. The reward/risk ratio offers a more effective mechanism to determine exiting positions.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
