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Bitcoin-btcusd-btc

BITCOIN Cycle unlocked with Angle Theory! Can we reach 140-150k?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is having a strong break-out day on the 1D time-frames and below but this is only on the short-term. Still it is a step in the right direction on the long-term after trading sideways in the last 6 months within the 1W MA50 (Support) and 1W MA100 (Resistance). ** Cycle Peaks and angles ** Today's study brings you the a multi-cycle depiction on the 1W time-frame of BTC since the peak of its very first Cycle at $32. Those that followed ($1250, $19800, $69800) all made contact with the Logarithmic top Growth Curve, a historic pattern that is holding since BTC's inception. It appears that every peak-to-peak measurement is roughly half of the previous peak. The automatic angle measurements on the (red) dotted lines may differ based on the screen's display and how the horizontal/ vertical axis move but on ours (and the screenshot of the idea) goes like this: 38°, 19°, 10°. We estimate a 6° angle for the new Cycle peak on the log Growth Curve. ** Next Cycle peak? ** If we take all previous Cycles and apply them to fit the new price action towards the top of the Log Growth Curve, that 6° line gives a projected Cycle peak within $140000 - 150000. It is also interesting to apply the same angle principle to the Cycle bottoms. We can see that those (green dotted lines) can also roughly be half of what the previous bottom was (though the variations are higher). The new bottom is estimated to be on a 7° angle. Remarkably the angles of the tops and bottoms of each Cycle have approximately the same measurements, indicating that despite being logarithmic within a curve, they can be viewed separately in Channels. So what do you think? Can Bitcoin reach $140-150k during this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
2
My noisy chart. Yes, I trade these.I make these for myself and I am sharing this as-is to show how you can use alignment, geometry, price/time to capture price action with trends and pivots from intersections. I know how to read it because I built it but I hope this is proves valid confluence for others. The simple way to look at it is to follow the price , and see if it respects the trends or fails/rejects them. Pivots are marked with vertical lines and most are colored to correspond with what should be continuation/momentum. These colored areas will be great data regardless as you will be able to at minimum be able to use them as divergence (mark the price/time with a crossline) if the price does not react (change direction) that may also be data worth having because these pivots/zones are 100% meaningful. Horizontal lines can be added at all MAJOR intersections for simple price levels. You can add Fib tools and Gann fans to and from corners and intersections to build your own chart. This will also allow you to extend the chart past the current drawing limits as these trends will work for at least a few more months. COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT INDEX:BTCUSD Short term N Long Look I am always long on BTC big picture.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CaptBlackBeard
4
BITCOIN Don't expect any rebound as long as the USD is rising!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) failed again to break above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), closing instead the 1W candle in red and is pulling back. Today's study is on the 1W time-frame and compares BTC's price action through the whole year to the U.S. Dollar's (DXY). You would expect a correlation between the two but as you can see on these charts, it has gotten increasingly tighter lately. BTC's last two medium-term declines are the direct consequence of DXY's price increases. When DXY bottomed and started to rise, BTC topped and started to decline (vice verse DXY topping, BTC bottoming). Obviously a far riskier asset like Bitcoin is trading in a more aggressive pattern like a Channel Up while the more stable by nature currency is trading/ consolidating within a Megaphone. DXY the approaching the top of that Megaphone pattern, in fact it is very close to the 105.900 High of March. Having broken above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) this month, while BTC is still supported on its own, we can't be realistically expecting Bitcoin to rebound as long as the DXY continues to rise, unless an outside catalyst such as very favorable (adoption) news hit the market. Until then Bitcoin should seek a Support confirmation on its 1W MA50, while DXY should start forming a top in October. But what do you think? Will Bitcoin rise irrelevant of what DXY will do, or we need to see a top on the latter first? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
13
Bitcoin: Bearish And Bullish?Bitcoin has spiked back into the high 26K resistance. While this is a minor resistance, price can go EITHER way from here. So how to navigate the risk around this highly random situation? The first decision you must make is: are you conservative or aggressive? This will shape how you interpret the price action that COMES NEXT. Having a rules based system helps immensely in these situations because it removes any indecision or emotional reactions. Whether you are conservative or aggressive will make it easier to take the trade once the criteria is met, or to avoid the setup altogether WHETHER the trade has a positive outcome or NOT. This is precisely why I developed my trade scanner. It is a rules based trend following momentum reversal system. And it even tells me the stop loss and take profit levels. All I have to do is evaluate the context around the trade idea to see if it fits into a conservative or aggressive framework. For example: the broader trend on Bitcoin is still BULLISH until the 25K support is compromised. This is CONTEXT. Price has presented a double bottom and has reversed in an area where such a probability was HIGHLY likely. The trade scanner (tracking smaller time frame momentum) has been generating SHORT signals into a major support area It is at this point where you must make a judgement: Are you conservative or aggressive? If you are conservative, you should NOT take short signals going into a major support. While it can work, the probability of a positive outcome is smaller. If you are aggressive, you can consider these highly risky trades, KNOWING that probability is working against you. This requires heavy monitoring and being quick to exit the trade BEFORE the stop is reached if momentum is not following through. Aggressive trades should be taken on PAPER if you are a beginner. As of now, the trade scanner has generated a number of short signals across alt coins like Litecoin, Polygon and a few others. Bitcoin is also in a position where IF 26,200 is taken out, and momentum follows through, a test of the 25K low MAY be tested AGAIN. While this is all well and good, we must NOT overlook the broader context: price still flirts with a major support. IF price takes out 26,850 area, a squeeze can potentially push into the 28K area. Which side do you choose? Are you conservative or aggressive? Its NOT about accurately FORECASTING the future because markets are MOSTLY random. It is about considering a number of scenarios and ADJUSTING expectations and risk as price provides NEW information. If you're confused, stay out altogether. Protecting capital is the number one priority ESPECIALLY in this extremely conflicted economic environment. Use this time to learn the reality of how markets work so that when the markets get better, you are prepared and confident. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
5
BITCOIN Above the 4H MA200 starting to test the Resistances.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke yesterday above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since August 09. This was a critical Resistance as it made the emphatic August 29 rejection in the Greyscale aftermath. With the 4H MA50's (blue trend-line) support, the price has now started to test the Resistance levels one by one with the first being the Lower Highs 1 trend-line that has been in effect since the August 08 High. If BTC closes a 1D candle above it, we will have the first bullish break-out signal and we will buy targeting the 0.382 Fibonacci level and Lower Highs 2 trend-line at 27550. This trend-line has been in effect since the annual High of July 13. Note that if this target is achieved, BTC will most likely form a Golden Cross on the 4H time-frame (would be the first since June 22). Beyond that, we will only engage in buying if a 1D candle is closed above the 1D MA100 (red trend-line), a key level which is located slightly above Resistance 1 (28150) and slightly below the 0.5 Fibonacci. In that case our target will be 30220 (Resistance 2), marginally below Fibonacci 0.786. Among all this, notice the significant Bullish Divergence that has been unfolding on the RSI, which has been on Higher Lows while Bitcoin traded on Lower Lows. So what do you think about this critical test of the 4H MA200? Is it the first Resistance to break and many more will follow? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
8
Bitcoin: 25K Support Vulnerable.Lower highs often lead to lower lows. If 25K is cleared on Bitcoin, 22K becomes the next relevant support area. Situations like this can be very confusing, but in this article I will explain the mental framework I utilize to effectively shape expectations and manage risk when facing technical conflicts. First we must ALWAYS accept the fact that markets are MOSTLY RANDOM. I do NOT expect to "forecast" a market which implies a degree of certainty. Instead I attempt to assign loose probabilities to scenarios based upon clues that are present on the chart. The confusion comes in when price is flirting with a major support while bearish short term momentum continues to persist. It is easy to obsess over the support and believe it will not break because the broader structure is bullish. The thing is, price should not linger too long at the support if the market is in fact strong. Momentum reversal setups should follow through, NOT establish lower highs (see blue squares). The fact that price has attempted to squeeze twice and has failed within a major support area implies weakness. I have found it is better to anticipate momentum will continue until proven otherwise. To prove otherwise in this situation, a resistance needs to be taken out, like 27K to 28K area OR at LEAST a higher low formation. All we have is persistent tests of support. If this price action does not change, it implies that a support break is more likely which can lead to a test of the 22K area in the next week or two. This is NOT a forecast, it is a scenario that carries a greater probability and shapes my expectations for trade strategies. For example, I recently called a swing trade long at 26,200 which filled. While the trade has not gone to the stop, chances are it will and why I am calling for an early exit. Meanwhile my trade scanner (automated system) has been calling shorts the entire time. It's most recent short on Bitcoin was called at 25,985 and is still in play. The system follows momentum while I consider a broader context. Which is better? While the bot can get caught at times because it can't see context, it has been outperforming me because it follows its rules without exception. It is not perfect, but it takes emotions out of the game and improves performance efficiency dramatically especially for a trader with little to no experience. The best case is when you can recognize context and use that to better shape your expectations for the automated signals. In the Bitcoin situation shorting into a major support should be considered high risk, even though it can work. Knowing this, you can trade smaller, expect less or avoid the signal completely. Success is not defined by profits, it is defined by how you measure and take risks. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
9
BITCOIN : Moon SignalHi everyone, Let's show some positive news! The trend shows us that we probably started a new BULLISH Trend : We get an amazing GOLDEN CROSS that appeared very recently... Each time we get this Golden Cross, we has started a great bullish trend and for sure, ALTCOINS will follow (after a little delay). Anyway, I'm waiting to see a very hard and fast correction (US recession?) between the end of 2023 and the spring 2024. Just a normal part for a cycle market... Let's get the ball rolling! Stay safe! PS: it's not a Financial Advice.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Horus83
4
BITCOIN Needs to break the 1W MA100 to confirm bullish extensionBitcoin (BTCUSD) is rebounding after hitting the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the June 12 1W candle, which provided a rise. Technically on the 1W time-frame, the trend has been neutral basically with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) supporting and the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) as the Resistance, having the July 10 rejection. In fact, the 1W MA100 has been unbroken ever since the May 02 2022 bearish break-out that started the final and more aggressive decline of the Bear Cycle. If BTC reclaims it, technically it should turn into Support until the next Bear Cycle. At the same time the price continues to respect the 1M Support/ Resistance Zones, which is part of an analysis we conducted in June. The Resistance Zone (red), was previously a Support in 2022 having closed all 1M candles up to April 2022 above it, despite some large wicks that broke much lower but where bought back aggressively in the end. That Support Zone is now the new Resistance Zone, in a similar way as the Resistance Zone of July - August 2022 (green) is now the new Support. The 1W MA50 is within that Support Zone, in a similar way the 1W MA100 is trading within the Resistance Zone. All this while the 1W RSI is within a Channel DOwn since it hit the 70.00 Overbought barrier on April 10 but is close to the Higher Lows trend-line of June 2022, which is the current Cycle's Support. As a result, the price is currently within a huge Neutral Zone that although based on the 1M candles closings, a 1W candle closing above the 1W MA100, will be the first bullish break-out signal towards 45900 - 48500, which is the next Resistance Zone ahead and our medium-term target. But what do you think? Will Bitcoin break above the 1W MA100 (Resistance) or the 1W MA50 (Support)? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
7
We Have Our Answer!Traders, A few posts ago, you will see that (2) two gaps were being focused on. The question was posed about which might be filled first. Many of my followers understand that my bias was to the upside gap being filled first. Thanks to the Blackrock ETF approval, this has occurred. And, as I stated in my video yesterday, I have unloaded 50% of ALL my positions (alts included), taken profits, and moved my stops up to break even. I will let the remainder ride for now and hopefully take the rest off at the 50 day ma of the SPOT BTC chart which intersect exactly with the bottom of that important support (now resistance) which I talked about in yesterday's video at 28,750. If we don't hit that and I get stopped out instead, no issue cuz I move all my stops to break even and will take no loss now. There still remain (2) two unfilled gaps: one at 20,290 from March of this year and one at 35,180 from May of last year. I still believe both will be filled soon. Stay tuned for more on this unfolding price action as, through charting research, I hope to gain a better grasp on how it will go. Stew
CME:BTC1!Long
by stewdamus
BTC USD ideaWe find ourselves in a range-bound scenario at the moment. It's important to note that our weekly bias remains bullish. Now, the question arises: will it be supply or demand that propels us out of this range? A key factor to monitor is the movement of the Dollar Index (DXY), as a potential decline could provide us with a clearer direction for Bitcoin. As we navigate these waters, maintaining a vigilant eye on both supply and demand dynamics, coupled with the behavior of the DXY, will aid us in making informed decisions. This kind of professional vigilance allows us to position ourselves effectively in the ever-shifting tides of the market.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by themarketknight
BITCOIN Can it hit $50000 by the end of the year?This Bitcoin (BTCUSD) study is centered around the MACD Bullish Cross that took place on the 1M time-frame two months ago. Since 2014, the 1M MACD has formed a Bullish Cross another 3 times. In all cases the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level was hit either before (only time the June 2019 Libra hype) or after. At the same time, the Symmetrical Support level from the last Lower High of the Bear Cycle held and closed all 1M candles above it (exception of course is the Black Swan non-technical irregularity of the COVID flash crash on March 2020). This is the position that the recent price decline has brought us to, testing that Symmetrical Support, which has held twice already in June and May 2023. The situation is more like the December 2015 1M MACD Bullish Cross, which took 6 months until it reached the 0.786 Fibonacci level. This time range is completed in 4 months, which means that by December 2023 BTC can reach the 0.786 Fib, which is at $50000. So do you think that this Bullish Cross will have history repeated and make firstly the Symmetrical Support to close the month above it and secondly that the price will reach $50k by the end of the year? Is this the final red monthly candle before a relentless rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
25
BITCOIN Not many opportunities to buy it at a better discount.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) had a noticeable correction recently, bringing the price back to mid-June levels and spreading fear across the market. This effect isn't however until we zoom out to the larger time-frames (1W on the current study) and the multi-year Cycles that we realize that this is a natural technical phenomenon, an early Bull Cycle correction after the first rally of the new Bull market. As you can see we compare today to where the price was in 2019, 2015 and 2012 all 238 days before the Halvings of their respective Cycles, which is how long away we are currently (238 days/ 34 weeks) from Halving 4 (estimated in April 2024). In 2012 and 2015, the price was within the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, same as today. The exception is 2019 when the price was considerably above that zone, mainly due to the sheer aggressive nature of the 2019 rally. However the correction that followed was equally strong as (even excluding the COVID crash), the price scratched the top of the 0.618 Fib. As a result, we can argue that BTC is exactly where it is supposed to be during that respective phase of the Cycle, based on its historic cyclical activity. This doesn't mean that it can't fall some more, but most likely there won't be many opportunities to buy it at a better discount. Do you think that's the case or are you waiting for a (much) lower price to buy? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
15
BTC forming a bearish pennant but...I expect this to break down and reach the 24K area, should price break below that one we'll see again the 20K area. Right now we're ranging and it's waiting for some volume to move things. However considering the bullish DIV in formation we could see a breakout until the 28K where I think we'll see a rejection. Bottom line: good if you're doing DCA, I'm doing a "reasoned DCA" meaning I buy alts in certain period where I think it's convenient, however despite having bought a potential bottom it's likely we'll see new bottoms for altcoins. Keep up!
Short
by Shotokhan
Bitcoin: Adjusting To The 28K Support Break.Bitcoin news takes everyone by surprise and breaks 28K support. My swing trade from 29,600 got stopped out at 28,300. While stop outs are never expected, they SAVE money in the long run. This is a very valuable lesson for short term traders who don't respect stops. My max exposure was 1300 points, while price went lower by 5K points. I can only imagine all those who were liquidated as a result of following numerous instances of extremely optimistic analysis. First, understand that there is NO WAY to see something like this coming in terms of technical analysis. The only way to know is to know the news in advance. The only clues on the chart were the fact that we had a failed breakout at 31K and a couple of buy signals that lacked the follow through. During this time of consolidation, the broader structure still maintained a bullish bias (price staying above the 28K key support). When there are dramatic moves in the market, I don't REACT and instead ADJUST to the new information. THAT is the BEST We can do as traders/investors from a technical perspective. Here are the adjustments I am making: 1) Short term trend is now BEARISH (Trade Scanner is now looking for short setups). This means bullish signals carry a lower probability. It will be tempting to buy the bounce, especially off the 25K support, but probability of follow through is LOW. If taking longs, expectations must be small. 2) Key support is NOW 25K AREA. I am using the June low of 24,700 AREA as a key level to further shape mid term expectations. If that level is decisively compromised again, I will consider the mid term trend bearish. 3) Key resistance is now 28K. This is the metric I will use to measure potential for new swing trade longs IF the ideal scenario presents itself. Keep in mind at this point, the mid term trend can be going into a consolidation (similar to the multi year range in Gold). 4) A new bearish continuation signal will be in play if the low of the previous inside bar is taken out. 5) While it is tempting to go long in this situation, the bearish momentum must NOT be overlooked. In these situations I prefer to wait for the ideal setup (which may never appear). That is the failed low or double bottom off the 25K support (blue lines on chart). This type of setup would be considered for a swing trade long only. Keep in mind, if you were expecting BTC 50K or anything nonsensical like that, you really need to question the information you are consuming. The bond market has been warning for WEEKS that potential in these markets is very limited. While losing trades will always be a factor in this game, they can be MINIMIZED in terms of RISK and FREQUENCY. This is especially important in the type of market environment we are in. Instead of looking outward for the answers or to be "informed", it actually has to come from how YOU interpret information relative to the risk you are willing to take. This process begins with a set of SPECIFIC rules that define the type of setup, trade and risk that you are comfortable with. Then you WAIT for the market to meet the criteria, do NOT force or make up trades. WAITING is the hardest part for most beginners and that is why I developed a tool like the trade scanner. And now we can automatically track its results. As I explain to people often, most traders come to this game with the absolute WRONG expectations and beliefs. This is NOT a game of reward, it is a game of RISK. If you don't look at it purely from that perspective, you will simply get fleeced like everyone else. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
EIGHTCAP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
11
BITCOIN First time on the 1D MA200 in 5 months. Disaster ahead?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit yesterday the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since the March 10 2023 Low and closed a 1D candle below it for the first time since January 12 2023. Can this be an early warning that the worse have yet to come? It certainly could, considering that the price also broke and closed below the Higher Low trend-line that started BTC's recovery from the Bear Cycle back in December 2022. However the (massive) decline is so far contained within the March Channel Up. As long as it stays above the Channel's bottom, we expect a short-term (at least) rebound to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at 28800. Below it, we expect the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) to be tested at 24000. In addition, the 1D RSI hit the 20.45 Support level (massively oversold) that was formed on the bottom of June 18 2022. But a weekly candle closing below the 1W MA50 could be catastrophic and reverse the long-term trend to bearish again. Do you think that's the case? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
14
#Bitcoin - thoughts out loud #19Good evening, we are from Ukraine! Dear colleagues, I am glad to welcome you! Having familiarized myself with the market situation on the younger time frames, I can note several key points of the situation that need to be paid attention to. First of all, the current decline in volatility on the first cryptocurrency indicates that the "spring" is narrowing and should soon shoot. The false distribution phase is coming to an end, so I expect a successful spike test or the last point of resistance, as it happens, if one of the signals is present, this is a 90% long scenario and then we will see how easy it will be to stop this locomotive. Secondly, in the case of a true distribution, the price should break the local highs above 32000 and then we can safely talk about Bitcoin at 27000, possibly even cheaper. This is a short action plan in a few words, thank you for your attention, all the best. A like or a comment would be the best thank you from you. To those reading, I wish you all the best of luck! Thank you for your attention, and a special thanks for your likes and comments. Sometimes you win /sometimes you learn . #Bitcoin
Long
by WVitalievich
BITCOIN This is the last barrier standing before going parabolicBack in May we first showed on this channel the unique Bullish Cross that the KST indicator was about to make and how the previous three clear (July 2020, January 2016 and June 2013), all have kickstarted major Parabolic Rallies. The Bullish Cross was completed in late May, BTC rose again in June on a new yearly High but failed again to break above its 3W MA50 (blue trend-line). This is the last Resistance standing on a Cyclical basis as in the previous Cycles once the 3W MA50 broke, it turned into Support (exception of course the COVID flash crash in March 2020) that guided the price into the Bull Cycle's final parabolic rally. But what do you think? Is the MA50 the last barrier for Bitcoin before turning it into Support and breaking out parabolically? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
23
Bitcoin: Waiting For Higher High.Bitcoin is in the process of establishing a higher low formation around the 29,300 area on the daily chart. Higher lows often lead to higher highs. In this seasonally slow time of the year, a major catalyst will have to come along in order to create enough momentum for a higher high to be realized. In this context, a reasonable level to expect for a higher high is the 32 to 33K area. I have not made any adjustments to the swing trade signal that I shared from 29,600 recently. The adjustment I anticipate is moving the stop to break even at the appropriate reward/risk ratio. As the month continues, I am anticipating the next two weeks to be the PEAK of SLOW season. Again this is a function of average volume. If you must trade in such an environment, it is imperative to follow a strict set of rules. Even this will not fully protect you from the noise, but if you can minimize mistakes or stop outs, you are more likely to preserve your capital and CONFIDENCE. This alone will put your in a better position to capitalize on the opportunities that will appear when the markets get back to normal volume. Profit for the retail trader comes from the MISTAKES of other traders. The less experience, the more of a chance of mistakes. Who do you think you are up against in this current environment? Mistake making Tik Tok content consumers or pros/algos? Pro poker players know to avoid tight tables, and know that highest probability of profit comes from prime time (drunken tourists). I realized a long time ago that sitting in front of a computer for hours WAITING for criteria to lines up is not productive. Human nature in terms of boredom, confirmation bias, and other psychological factors can hinder overall performance, ESPECIALLY in low volume environments. With the technology that is available today, I figured there had to be a better way and that is what lead to the development of my trade scanner. The thing is, if you don't know what specific market inefficiency you are looking for, a screener or automation won't help anyway. The scanner waits for MY criteria to be met and then produces a raw idea. The more advanced version even generates stop loss and take profit prices at the time of notification. While it doesn't produce a 100% win rate (nothing can) it certainly helps me to be much more selective without having to spend time evaluating charts. Less trades is MORE in this game, especially for the next two weeks. Like I wrote earlier, profit comes from mistakes. These mistakes are rooted in human nature. Human nature is our great obstacle to success in this game. If you can't get over yourself, you will only serve as a profit source for others. The first step is to stop consuming the information EVERYONE else consumes. Stop assigning value to the WRONG information as a consequence of conventional logic. Learn how the game works from a not so obvious level, like micro structure, price action, momentum, market efficiency, etc. If "news" is your source for decisions, let me know because I will be more than happy to do the opposite. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
EIGHTCAP:BTCUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
5
BITCOIN rally starting and next Top expected at least $200k!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has made a 1D Double Bottom and seems to have priced the final low before a new rally that will take it to a new yearly high. The price is already on a 15 day high and it is an excellent time now to look at potential highs for this Cycle. As we've done in the past, we will rely on the long-term time-frames for a more meaningful illustration of BTC's historic Cycles. Those are patterns that have repeated themselves over and over again, with some variations of course based on the current market conditions. ** The Fibonacci Channels ** Right now the price is above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), on a 8-month rally that hasn't been anything like short-term Bear Cycle rallies. The previous Cycles topped near Fibonacci trend-lines of prior Cycle Channels. For example the December 2017 Cycle Top was formed just below the bottom (Fib 0.0) of the orange Fibonacci Channel that started from the previous Cycle bottom. The November 2021 Top was formed just below the middle (Fib 0.5) of the blue Fibonacci Channel. This could be a +0.5 Fib progression and in that case the Top of the current Cycle might be just below the top (Fib 1.0) of the black Fibonacci Channel that started on the December 2018 bottom. ** The Halvings and $200k ** The 1.0 Fib at the time of (the next) Halving 4 (April 2024) will be above $200000, and as we know after each Halving, Bitcoin posts the most aggressive (parabolic) rally of the Bull Cycle. So that leads us to assume that the Top of the current Bull Cycle will be at least $200k. To give a relative sense of pathing, we have plotted the 'post Halving rallies' of the previous three Cycles on the current Channel starting on Halving 4. Do you think that we will see $200k by 2025 Q3? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
30