Bitcoin BTC-USD Long Setting up for a run within 10 days.Looking at my charts I see BTC-USD setting up VERY nicely for a bullish run at 30k+ zones over the next 10 days. MY current by zones for BTCUSD is between 28750 and 27000 over the next week. I see the possibility of price action hitting off the Midline of the Bollinger bands as a support level then retesting upward to find the new limits of the upper Bollinger band. The longer term Moving Average is just now starting to come into a play as a supporting indicator here and should provide additional momentum conformation for other traders.
I think sometime this year when BTCUSD crosses strongly into the 40k area that we will again start to see Institutional and Corporate investing start to add BTC to their balance holdings similar to 1/4 to 1/3 their exposure levels of Gold/Silver. Look for a LOT of world turmoil and conflict with the bloc ditching the US Dollar and this will drive even the most dedicated T bill holder into a new bitcoin dabbler, looking for some trend, stability, and possibly some recovery in a really rocky income market later this year.
Once we hit 30k we should expect to fall back to support 2 or 3 times around 28k before staying above 30k for any extended period of time.
Just documenting my thoughts for myself :) Do your own research.
Bitcoin-btcusd-btc
BITCOIN What happens if 30k breaks?A lot of market participants are calling for a firm end to Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) rally around the 30k mark. Who can blame them? Bitcoin has been on a very aggressive rally since the start of the year with its price in the low 16000s at the time. As we pointed out at an earlier analysis however, the breaking and closing of a 1W candle above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), set in motion the 2nd phase of this rally towards $30000.
** Former Support Zone turned into Resistance **
This is the level that most are afraid of and rightly so as the broader range of 29500 - 32500 is the former Support Zone (now Resistance) of the Bear Cycle, the Zone that initially supported the first sell-off and closed all candles above it for many months. When it finally gave in in May 2022, BTC entered the 2nd, most aggressive but final phase of the Bear Cycle. In fact, such Zones were present in BTC's previous Cycles. The Resistance Zone in 2019 was within 5800 - 6200 while in 2015 with 350 - 410.
** The 0.5 Fibonacci **
What's perhaps more important than this Zone itself, is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level since the Cycle's top. On the current Cycle that's at $32800. In these past two Cycles, when Bitcoin closed a 1W candle above the 0.5 Fib, the price rallied and hit the 0.786 Fib in 6 and 8 weeks respectively! The 0.786 Fib on the current Cycle is at $50000.
But why do we give more weight to the 0.5 Fib instead of the Resistance Zone around the 30k mark? Because even though in the previous Cycle on the week May 06 2019, BTC broke above it and aggressively extended the rally, in the Cycle before on the week of November 02 2015, it broke (even above the 0.5 Fib) but got sold massively only to close the 1W candle back below it. As a result, a closing above the 0.5 Fib would be a more accurate signal.
Notice also that by the time the post 0.5 Fib rally reached the 0.786 level and peaked, the 1W RSI was at or slightly above 80.00 (obviously massively overbought). A strong medium-term sell/ take profit signal.
But what do you think will happen if 30k breaks? Will it rally to 50k and the 0.786 Fibonacci or pull-back and and consolidate for a multi-week period until it does so? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN closed below the 4H MA50 and can drop lowerBitcoin (BTCUSD) broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) with both the 4H RSI and MACD under their neutral limit. This indicates short-term weakness and as with the February 05 and February 22 4H MA50 break-outs, we may see a re-test of the 4H MA50 as a Resistance where a new rejection may cause a bigger pull-back.
The previous two break-outs made a Lower Low within the 1.618 - 1.786 Fibonacci extensions. Of course the March 10 low on the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) took place in the aftermath of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, a fundamental event outside of the technical sphere. Better us the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) as the targeted Support, by early next week it should be within the 1.618 - 1.786 Fib Zone.
The 4H RSI also has a clear Support Zone. Technically a Low within 25300 - 25000 seems a fair technical value with a Higher High at 30000, representing a solid short-term target. Do you also think such a pull-back would be healthy at this stage? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Cycle comparison and how China bonds initiate new Bull!This is not the first time we incorporate the Chinese bond yields element (CN02Y/CN20Y) to Bitcoin (BTCUSD) analysis, but it is the first time we do so in such an illustrative way by displaying all Cycles from a common starting point. We have made a case in the past how strong of a correlation the Chinese bond market has with Bitcoin and how efficiently that can predict its Cycles.
As you see on the chart, each Cycle portrays a certain period: Red = Cycle 1 -2 (2010 - 2014), Blue = Cycle 2 - 3 (2015 - 2018) and Orange = Cycle 3 - 4 (2019 - now). The CN02Y/CN20Y ratio is displayed in Grey. A key characteristic is that all Cycles have a common start, the bottom of the previous one. We see the effect of diminishing returns as each Cycle is less aggressive (naturally) from the previous one.
We also see the strong connection with CN02Y/CN20Y, as when the ratio starts declining, BTC enters a Bear Cycle, and once the ratio starts rising, BTC initiates a Bull Cycle. Right now it appears that we are at the point where the CN02Y/CN20Y ratio typically peaks and consolidates, which for BTC is translated to the time it breaks above its 1W MA50 and practically starts a new aggressive rally, the first of the new Bull Cycle.
Based on this model, Bitcoin should extend the rally it started this year. Do you agree? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN is repeating late January. Small rise and consolidation Bitcoin (BTCUSD) in terms of RSI and MACD on the 4H time-frame, is replicating the formations of late January. We have applied the Pitchfork tool since January's Low and is shows a highly accurate pattern whose Fibonacci levels form Resistance/ Support lines.
The 4H MACD is about to make a Bullish Cross and on January 20 that was the start of a mini price jump before a 3-week consolidation. This is portrayed by the green Rectangle. As long as the 4H MA50 holds (blue trend-line), it is not unlikely to see another mini pump. The Support is located within the 0.236 - 0.382 Fibs, assuming it follows January's sequence.
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BITCOIN $50000 is a realistic target by November!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) satisfied those that kept comparing the 2022/23 Cycle to the 2014/15 one as after the a clear rejection on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), it rebounded on the Cyclical Lower Highs trend-line and since last week it closed above it as well as the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
This symmetry is remarkable and it doesn't stop here. Right now we are 101 weeks after the Cycle's true technical top on the week of April 12 2021. Notice that the 2nd week following the first 1W candle closing above the 1W MA50 in 2015 was on the October 26 2015 candle. That was 100 weeks after the Cycle Top!
If this amazing symmetry continues to hold, then we can expect BTC to reach the 0.786 Fibonacci level in 33 weeks from now, i.e. on the 1W candle of November 06 2023. That gives an exact target of $50000.
Do you think this pattern will hold until then? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Bull Market Support Bands 👀🚨🚨🚨NOW🚨🚨🚨❓❓❓Bitcoin Bull Market Support Bands
Despite on false signal at Corona sell-off every cross above the Bands led to a great bullish momentum for BTC👀
🚨🚨🚨NOW🚨🚨🚨
Next cross above Bands since more than 500 days dear Crypto Nation❓
$19,266🟢
Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗
⬇️⬇️⬇️
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Disclaimer:
Not financial advice
Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
Bitcoin - Life isn't all black⬛️or white⬜️Bitcoin
Life isn't all black⬛️or white⬜️...
Yes‼️ Is it‼️
Look at the beautiful gains while BTC was in the⬜️
Current price to switch from black⬛️to white⬜️is $27,250 - updates here🚨
RT & Follow appreciated dear Crypto Nation🤗
And wait for the⬜️😉😎
Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗
⬇️⬇️⬇️
Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗
Disclaimer:
Not financial advice
Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
GOLD's and BITCOIN's correlation. BTC about to drop?This is a chart displaying Gold's (XAUUSD) correlation with Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the short/ medium-term. As you see the two have been tightly correlated since late last year. When Gold started dropping aggressively after the February 02 High, Bitcoin followed shortly, though with not such an aggressive note. With Gold declining rapidly today, is this an early indicator that Bitcoin is about to do so as well to the 26k-25k zone?
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BITCOIN Knocking on the massive 2-year Liquidity Zone's door.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) closed last week the first 1W candle above the 1W MA50 since March 2022, ending a full year of intense selling pressure. This closing opens up enormous long-term bullish possibilities as the new Bull Cycle has just started and the first challenge is the massive Cycle Liquidity Zone (green range) that goes back to January 2021!
As you see this zone, which sits around the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and within the 0.382 - 0.618 Fib range, has provided long-term Support three times but when 2 straight 1W candles closed below Fib 0.5, it turned into Supply and opened the way for the May-June 2022 collapse.
It is easy to understand therefore the importance of this Cyclical Zone. BTC is about to enter it and most likely will test Fib 0.5 (32750) and provide us with the direction. A double candle closing above it, could be what fuels Bitcoin to even higher Highs. Don't neglect also the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), which most likely will be on the 0.5 Fib by the time of a potential test.
It is worth noting that all the time the Liquidity Zone was tested, were with the Supertrend indicator in red. This time the indicator is in green, showing that Bitcoin has indeed started a new Bull Cycle.
So what do you think this Liquidity Zone test has in store for Bitcoin? Will it be bullish or bearish? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Does Fetch.AI pave the way for BTC?Striking similarities between Bitcoin (BTCUSD) in the past 2 years with Fetch.AI (FETUSDT) on the 1D time-frame. The charts are pretty self-explanatory as we have pointed out the basic features they share. But as BTC is rising aggressively off its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), when Fetch.AI did that on December 20 and reached its 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, it broke above Fib 0.5 equally fast and easily where it consolidated before eventually filling the gap on the April 2022 Resistance Zone and Fib 0.786 where it consolidated again and even this time pulled-back below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
If this is a roadmap for Bitcoin then the 48000 - 50000 Zone can be a real possibility much quicker than most expect. Do you think that will be the case? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin - DPPM Oscillator occurred🔴🟢after last fake switch🟠Bitcoin
Next clear switch of DPPM Oscillator by LazyBear occurred🔴🟢after last fake switch🟠
Remember BTC reaction afterwards in 2015 and 2019
🚨🚨🚨
Will history repeat❓👀
Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗
⬇️⬇️⬇️
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Disclaimer:
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Do your own research before investing
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BITCOIN - ABCD PATTERN !?The Bitcoin Price Broke The Daily Resistance Level !
The Broken Resistance Becomes New Support Level ✔
So, I Expect a Pullback to 25950 and retest 📉
then! we will see a huge Bullish Move 📈
TARGET: 29800🎯
...
if you agreed with this IDEA, please leave a LIKE, SUBSCRIBE or COMMENT!
BITCOIN and S&P500 on similar fortunes. Target 64000 and 4900.his is not one of our usual analyses but we found a pattern that Bitcoin and S&P500 shared in the past and may replicate in the future now that the Bull Cycle has restarted.
Based on this the first target for both of them when the get out of a Bear Cycle is Fibonacci 2.0 from the last High before the final selloff.
For Bitcoin that target is 64000 and for the S&P500 4900.
Long term outlook don't get confused with our usual shorter term signals.
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BITCOIN The S&P/GOLD ratio is leading the way!This is a unique study showing the correlation of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) with the S&P500/Gold ratio (SPX/XAUUSD) displayed by the orange trend-line.
On this 1W time-frame, Bitcoin has broken above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and will attempt to make the first closing above it, in order to confirm the new Bull Cycle beyond any doubt. In the previous Cycle this took place on the week of April 29 2019.
As you can see, the patterns between the two Cycles are identical. Bitcoin tends to peak earlier when the S&P500/Gold ratio makes its last Higher High before it eventually tops after BTC is well within its Bear Cycle. The S&P500/Gold ratio then forms a series of Lower Highs, the second of which is when BTC bottoms (excluding the FTX crash, that would have been the bottom). At the moment we are expecting a Lower Low on the S&P500/Gold ratio in order to price the first High of the first rally of the new Bull Cycle.
Do you think the S&P500/Gold ratio is leading the way for Bitcoin? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Two opposite views, and One common drop!On the Bitcoin chart, we have Two moves ahead. First, the bottom was the low of November 22, and BTC is making the first impulsive wave in a very bullish structure. Second, the up move from that last low, $15600, isn`t more than a C wave which might, structurally, end soon, and the drop might be sharp then the price will resume the bearish big wave down to a new low under 15k. The second move (left chart) is more probably to take place, but if the other will b the correct one, we`ll see potentially a 20% drop in both cases then the price will decide whether path to follow.
(This is from a pure wave structure perspective)
BITCOIN Can we finally end the comparisons with August 2015?As everyone is aware, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) made an incredible rebound on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) 5 days ago shortly after forming a Bullish Cross with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). As many analysts have been comparing the current Cycle Bottom to that of 2015, it is perhaps time to call it a day on expectations for a 15.5k Double Bottom as it happened on August 2015.
As we have clearly explained to you and published on our January 21 analysis, expecting a drop like August 2015 wasn't an optimal strategy as it was caused by the Bitfinex flash crash:
As you see, that analysis has quite accurately grasped BTC's movement these past 2 months, projecting also February pull-back. Its first target before another consolidation/ pull-back was around the 0.5 Fibonacci (33k). On the current analysis we will take it a step further, showing another angle by comparing it with the 2015 fractal, excluding of course (as we also told you 2 months ago) the August 2015 Bitfinex crash, which was an unexpected event that distorted the sound technical trend up to that point.
** Similarities between 2023 - 2015 **
First of all, observe how similar the 1D RSI sequences traded. The new rebound started once the 1D RSI broke into the 30.00 oversold barrier. If we also exclude the November 08/09 2022 FTX crash, we can see that on both fractals the range from the prior Low to the Resistance is around +40%. Assuming the Bitfinex crash in August 2015 never happened, and we calculate the impulse rise from the 1D MA200, we get an exact +100% rise on the November 04 2015 High. If this gets repeated today, it gives a $39000 target.
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BITCOIN above the August High! Congratulations buyers!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rebounded on the 1D MA200 much more easily and much faster than anticipated as per our Inverse Head and Shoulders buy signal 4 days ago:
The long-term target of 41300 is intact but as the price broke above the 25250 August 15 High with force, we are taking our perspective on the more short-term again, on the 4H time-frame.
As you see, if we exclude the naturally unexpected sell-off of March 09 -10 due to the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) bankruptcy news, the pattern that stood out was the Bullish Megaphone. That was technically supporting until the SVB fundamentals took over.
Now that the price is close to the top of the Megaphone (Jan 21 Higher Highs) and the 2.236 Fibonacci extension, we expect a technical pull-back towards Pivot Zone 2 (Pivot Zone 1 was the range that supported the previous Megaphone correction) and the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). The short-term target is 28500, a little below the 2.786 Fibonacci extension. On a side-note, notice the 4H RSI testing its Lower Highs trend-line.
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BITCOIN is about to explode as GOLD/DXY is leading the rally!This is Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame against the Gold/DXY ratio. As you see, since 2016 the Gold/DXY ratio has been a leading indicator to BTC's trend on the long-term, filtering out what's needed.
In the last two Cycles, the ratio bottomed out first before BTC, broke above its Bear Cycle Support and posted a Bull Flag before BTC and topped before BTC. At the moment the ratio just broke above its Bull Flag, while BTC is rising too and will have a crucial week, attempting its first 1W candle closing above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
We have claimed for weeks on our channel that Bitcoin is currently in the same symmetrical level it was in April 2019. A closing above the 1W MA50 would validate this and set a short-term target on the Bear Cycle Support around $29000 and then pursue our longer term targets.
Do think that the Gold/DXY ratio is the leading indicator for Bitcoin's new rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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❗ Bitcoin bulls eye $24,000 after SVB shoring-up, but easy moneyCryptocurrencies rose when money was sloshing around cheaply, and suffered when the Federal Reserve began raising rates.
More recently, it tumbled on fears of cash starving at banks, and is benefiting from the shoring up of SVB depositors. The better market mood is helping BTC/USD recover, and it stopped only at the 4h-200 SMA, and after entering overbought conditions. Resistance is 22,612, followed by 23,029 and then 24,000, a double-top. Support is at 22,131, followed by 20,996.
I expect it to fall not only on overbought conditions but also as the collapse of SVB means tighter financial conditions, and less easy money for risky assets like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin: B Leg Of Wave 2?After probing the 19K area low, Bitcoin appears to be "bullish" again. That is if you tend to "react" to price information. The 20K break is significant on the broader time horizon AND further confirms the idea that Bitcoin is in the midst of a Wave 2 correction. Two things I will point out in this article: how to evaluate Wave 2 AND how to maintain an EFFECTIVE mindset for this type of environment.
First, the mindset. If you are still fooled by unqualified "experts" that claim charts tell them the future, well, you get what you pay for. Back in January, every "expert" and their cousin was saying Bitcoin 40K. If you bought into that idea, you had the pleasure of watching price peak at 25K and then test 19K. I guess the chart "pros" were not able to account for the recent banking problems that came out of no where.
My point is: IF you instead accepted that markets are HIGHLY random, you would realize that there is no way to know if Bitcoin will be at 40K in a few months. Charts do NOT account for unexpected news whether positive or negative. Scrutinize the situation by evaluating things like price structure and levels. These factors alone will AT LEAST help you have a better gauge of RISK compared to listening to unaccountable cowards who hide behind fake names.
By evaluating structure, levels and patterns I was able to share a short swing trade idea at 24,150 with a price target that I shared AT THE TIME of the trade idea (3 weeks ago), of 20,150. When this trade reached 22K, I suggested moving the stop to break even, and lock in some profit. Price never retraced back to the entry, and is now a locked in profit (my members can confirm all of this). This trade idea was simply the result of knowing price structure, probabilities, risk and maintaining an OPEN mind (NO opinions). No magical strategy, oscillators or any other retail NONSENSE.
Now lets get into the current situation and wave count. After the 5 Wave completion at 25K, I warned that a broader Wave 2 correction is likely to follow. If you know the rules of the Waves, you know that it is possible for Wave 2 to correct 100% of Wave 1. That opens the possibility of a 16K retest in this case. For this Wave 2 idea to be negated, price will NEED to clear the 24K AREA. So KEEP EXPECTATIONS REALISTIC if you are attempting to buy this bullish retrace.
If the current bullish retrace fails somewhere between here and 24K, it is may be a B Wave, which can be followed by a bearish C Wave. This is NOT a forecast. This is a potential scenario to be watching for.
If the short term momentum transitions to bullish from here, I will look for a swing trade LONG on the next pullback. I am not going to react to the initial move that we are potentially seeing now. Again I need to see confirmations, levels and setups before I can justify risk. Longs should be short term oriented in light of the current macro economic environment.
Speaking of economics: Chairman Powell continues to assert the idea that the central bank will continue to raise rates. While the recent reaction in the bond market seems to counter this fact, it is still something that "investors" should not ignore. A rising rate environment LIMITS near term potential for speculative assets like Bitcoin. Listen to Powell NOT Santa Claus. This adds weight to the Wave 2 scenario, not the nonsensical "expert" technical forecasts. Just something to think about.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.