BITCOIN 1D Golden Cross vs 1W Death Cross. Which will prevail?Two major technical events are about to be materialized for Bitcoin (BTCUSD). On the 1D time-frame a 1D Golden Cross, which is when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), is about to be formed, while on the 1W time-frame a 1W Death Cross, which is the opposite, is about to be formed. So what do those conflicting formation tell us? And which one will prevail?
We decided to view this through the dominant technical patterns available. As you see right now the one that stands out is an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S), which is a pattern typically seen on market bottoms. This is one of the drivers that guide BTC at the moment. In similar fashion, it was a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern that formed the November 2021 market top and initiated the Bear Cycle.
The symmetry on that pattern is remarkable as the price dropped -52.50% from the H&S top to the bottom of the Right shoulder, and another -52.50% from that level to the bottom of the Bear Cycle. Similarly, depending on where the IH&S neckline is formed, we expect an proportional rise. If the neckline is formed on the best case scenario a little over the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) at 27000, completing a +73.80% rise, then another +73.80% would put BTC's next bullish wave to around $47000. If on the other hand the price peaks now within the green neckline and just below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) completing a +56.50% rise, then another 56.50% would but the top of the next wave at around $38500 before the next pattern emerges.
It is not unlikely to the medium-term High here as based on the 1D RSI Bearish Divergence (being on Lower Highs against the price's Higher Highs) indicates that the rally is losing strength. The 1W RSI however marginally missed the 60.00 mark and indicates that there is still room for the rally to grow before it turned overbought at 80.00.
Which one do you think will prevail? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin-btcusd-btc
Bitcoin - RVGI indicator❌cross just occurred🔵🚨👀The RVGI indicator❌cross just occurred🔵🚨🚨🚨👀
Look at the great entry points🟢for Bitcoin when these crosses❌occurred in the past on the US10Y-US02Y chart dear BTC and Crypto Nation💥🚀😎
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Eviler long term chartThis is an updated version of the previous chart based on halvings again. Maybe the hype is wearing down for this cycle and the next 18 months will be a cool off period. And then about 6 months before next halving the hype starts up again. This would be near the beginning of 2020.
If the Bitcoin 25.2-23.3k zone cannot be crossed... #bitcoin the 25.2k-23.3k zone is an important resistance area. If this region cannot be crossed, my expectation is that the 11.6k-9.8k range is the first target, but I will prepare for a decline that may come up to the 6.4k-3.8k range and I will make a gradual purchase in 2 regions and wait for 48.2k-43.2k
BITCOIN The potential Resistance in 2023 based on the DXY.In continuation of our recent BTC-DXY cross comparison studies, we will quickly bring you today a trend-line that may have gone overlooked and can pose a real Resistance to Bitcoin (BTCUSD) in 2023.
As you see, if we exclude the March 2020 COVID crash period which is a non-technical irregularity, there is an underlying trendline on both assets, which on Bitcoin was the Support since late 2016 while on the U.S. Dollar (DXY) was its Resistance. A more controlled rise/ decline respectively may provide the true Resistance level in 2023.
What are your thoughts?
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Bitcoin - BTC On Balance Volume Oscillator❌🟢Bitcoin
We are out of the red cross❌phase since more than 2 weeks now 🚨👀
Chances of no lower prices than $15,563 are high IMO
Past false signal green crosses🟢consisted only of one cross so far
VERY bullish😎
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BITCOIN Major bullish signals aligned.Powell's icing on the cakeLots of euphoria yesterday after Jerome Powell's Press Conference where he gave the markets what they wanted to hear regarding future policy and how inflation is under control. The rates got increase by +0.25% but on a lower rate than the previous meeting. This may just be the icing on the cake for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) as technically we are close to three major indicators aligned for a huge triple buy signal.
We have moved up a time-frame to 3W to see an even longer term perspective that successfully filters out all the noise of short-term fluctuations. As you see, the RSI is already above its MA, the LMACD should complete the Bullish Cross on the next candle while STOCH is just below the 49.50 level. This is the last hurdle to overcome before BTC issues this triple buy signal as it is the level where STOCH got rejected on June 2015 and delayed the rally for another 2 months with one last low. However the LMACD Bullish Cross was formed after this low so if we get it on the next candle then most likely STOCH will be above the 2015 rejection point as well, or it will be invalidated.
Will this final alignment put the new Bull Cycle beyond doubt? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN The Super Cycle Theory based on the USDThis is not the first time we look into the Super Cycle Theory, which is the idea that Bitcoin (BTCUSD) may have just finished its 2nd Cycle instead of the traditional notion of the Four Cycles driven by the Halvings.
It is however the first time we look into it using the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and our favorite CN02/CN20Y ration (Chinese Bond Yields 02Y/20Y). As you see on this 1W chart, this correlation is indeed eye-opening as it paints very efficiently the picture of the two Super Cycles.
The DXY (strong) pull-back shows that we are past leg (6), which is the bottom of the Super Cycle and have entered the rally phase. The Higher High on the CN02/CN20Y shows that we could be much closer to the start of the parabolic part than we think. If the DXY extends its aggressive decline, it will confirm the latter notion but a rebound and multi-month consolidation (on the DXY) will take us more smoothly into the rally phase.
Do you agree with this Super Cycle Theory based on the USD? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin surprise moveIt might not make much sense in the current mood because the majority of market participants expect either more downside or sideways price action for the next 12/18 months, but I feel the real surprise would be an upside move.
A strong move, forcing the many in disbelief to rush in mid-to-late on the way to an early top somewhere in the low 6 figures range.
I give this idea a 60% confidence rate.
BTCUSD Head and Shoulders reversalBitcoin has formed a Head and Shoulders pattern following the break-out below the Channel Up and the MA50 4H.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell as long as the price is under the 23500 neckline.
2. Buy above the 23500 neckline.
3. Further Sell under 22300.
Targets:
1. 22500 (top of Support 1).
2. 25400 (representing a +13.10% rise, a norm during this rally).
3. 20500 (top of Support 2).
Tips:
Textbook Bearish Divergence on the RSI.
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Bitcoin & Consumer Confidence Index by University of Michigan⚫️Update:
US Consumer Confidence Index by University of Michigan⚫️
Index with a bear channel breakout on the way up - needs to be confirmed above 65.2 dear Bitcoin and Crypto Nation 🚨🚨🚨
Exciting to see if a BTC🟠 #bullish run begins afterwards
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Bitcoin Retrace After 5 Waves?After some brief consolidation, a new buy signal has appeared off of the 23K level, but what is NOT obvious to the herd is the low probability. From the SWING TRADE perspective, this would NOT be a buy signal to capitalize on. There are two factors that emphasize this: level and wave count.
1. Level refers to support/resistance. At this time, Bitcoin is above the 22K support and about 1300 points below the 25K resistance. 25K is historically significant, and is a location where selling activity is LIKELY to assert itself. If you took a swing trade long from lower prices, this would be a time to give the trade a chance to see how it behaves IF it can probe into the 24Ks or test the 25K level. Can't it break through 25K like all the frauds like to promote? Anything is possible but it is better to respect probabilities than it is to believe in Santa Claus.
2. Wave Count: The bullish impulse I am referring to originate from the December low. It is possible to clearly count 5 waves into the current high. This OFTEN means the current bullish move does not have much left in it and that a broader retrace into the 22K or 20K supports is more reasonable to expect over the next two weeks, IF this retrace unfolds, it can potentially become a Wave 4 with the possibility of testing the high once more. Please note: IF this structure overlaps Wave 1, then it cancels out the entire expectation.
This analysis pertains to the swing trade perspective. This particular time frame has periods when the risk is too high to justify taking risk and requires a LOT of waiting (could be weeks). The solution to this is to work on smaller time frames to mitigate the large magnitude of risk while participating in the brief spurts of momentum.If the risk expectation is smaller, the profit expectation must also be in proportion. If you take a day trade with a swing trade price target, you are highly likely to be stopped out.
It is important to UNDERSTAND: Markets are HIGHLY random. This means a LOT of things: setups can appear randomly, levels can be broken randomly, markets cannot be forecast far into the future and ANYONE (especially those who HIDE from accountability) can make calls that appear to be right. IF consistency is your goal, then being able to recognize probabilities AND playing good defense is what improves your chances. Defense means cutting losses EFFECTIVELY or being able to AVOID a loss altogether. Losing trades and our own behavior are the only things we CAN control.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.
BTC ranging, good time to buy altcoinsBTC has been ranging in the 22k4-23k3 box for a week now. In the 1H timeframe, BTCUSD is also creating a triangle pattern. Some traders might be comfortable trading the range, but that is not always safe because we have seen many candles poke through the box and then come back. The best option here is to wait for a confirmed breakout of any direction before considering entering a trade.
Next week, FED will announce the interest rate. This news will affect every financial market and might trigger a long waited correction wave.
With BTC continuing its sideway and BTC Dominance showing signs of correction, this is a good time to buy altcoins. Some altcoins are testing their November resistance. Those are the coins that need to keep an eye on. Wait for BTC correction then buy your favorite coins is one good strategy.
The volume might lower over the weekend, next week, we will publish charts of potential altcoins for your preferences. Stay tuned.
Like always, remember to trade at your own risk and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
Bitcoin - TRIX indicator❌with new bullish momentumBitcoin
After a momentum drift on the TRIX indicator❌sponsored by FTX misery we see a clear momentum increase🔵🚨
A very bullish sign for BTC IMO dear Crypto Nation😉
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BITCOIN It's blue-print is Gold and it is a bullish one.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is displayed on this 1W chart alongside Gold (XAUUSD) by the black trend-line. The text will be short as the chart is pretty much self-explanatory.
Every time Gold breaks its Lower Highs trend-line, BTC is past its bottom and well into its Bull Cycle, starting an aggressive rally. Right now Gold is dangerously close to that Lower Highs trend-line, while Bitcoin is already posting an impressive rally this first month of the year.
If Gold breaks its trend-line again, will you take it as an additional signal that the new BTC Bull Cycle has officially started? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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AT CryptoScan: BTCUSD to retraceSince the last post on BTC, it surged to 23,815 and is consolidating in a range at the interim top. Breakdown for a retracement is expected, and 20,633 is the support that should hold for a bounce and then a continued rally higher. Else, 19,000 is the base support to not break below.
Watching these levels...
BITCOIN Yuan and China bond yields point to a mega rally!This is not the first time we emphasized the strong correlation of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) with Yuan (USDCNY) and the Chinese Bond Yields (CN02Y and CN20Y). We made an analysis right in the aftermath of the FTX crash, indicating why those indicators have all aligned, paving the way for BTC's new Bull Cycle.
As you see that happened and this time we incorporate the element of CN02Y/CN20Y. This shows that every time the ratio's Lower Highs broke in the past, Bitcoin started the first phase of the Bull Cycle. For shorter or longer periods, this was achieved within a Channel Up (green). Right now we have started the new one.
Adding the fact that every time the USDCNY topped and dropped as aggressively as it has been doing since October 24, Bitcoin has started the most aggressive part of the Bull Cycle, the parabolic rally.
This mix is incredibly bullish for Bitcoin technically and it prompts to a mega rally next, the likes of which we may have not seen in the past. Do you agree? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN This is the Bullish Cross that will take it to $33kBitcoin (BTCUSD) just made a hugely important and unique Bullish Cross on its LMACD. Those who follow us regularly over the years, know that we like looking into assets (and Bitcoin in particular) from different time-frames that provide a more spherical overview of the market and the direction. This time we analyze the 15D chart as it just formed a Bullish Cross on its LMACD indicator.
This is a very rare pattern which below the 0.00 (LMACD) level has always formed straight after a Bear Cycle Bottom. Even during Bitcoin's first Cycle (2011/12) and the March 2020 COVID crash, the Bullish Cross was formed marginally above the 0.00 level.
Now the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) comes into the spotlight, as it is the Resistance to beat. Every 1W MA50 break following a 15D LMACD Bullish Cross, hit at least the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level in a maximum of two weeks. We can make a case about the 0.618 Fib as well, which failed to get hit only marginally on October 28 2015.
As a result, with the 1W MA50 currently at 25615, we can expect another sharp 2-4 week rally once BTC breaks it, that will target at least the 0.5 Fib at $32900 with a riskier extension being the 0.618 Fib at $38900.
What do you think? Has this 15D LMACD Bullish Cross shaken your last bearish bias and if so, will you buy the 1W MA50 break-out confirmation? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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