Bitcoin Analysis.I still believe that the markets are still down trending. We will see how prices react to the discount imbalances to see if we get a reaction from the weekly third trend line touch.
Bitcoin-btcusd-btc
BITCOIN Can this wick keep the 2019 fractal alive?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is not having the best 3 week stretch as it broke below its 2 month Channel Up. The April 2019 fractal, that has drawn widespread comparisons with the current price action recently, broke its Channel Up on a 1D candle wick, hit the Support made off the 1st Low and rebounded. Once the MACD formed a Bullish Cross, the next bullish wave started.
Today's pattern (on 2D) has the Support of the 1st Low at 20500, a little above the MA50 (blue trend-line). Is this the last resort keeping the the 2019 fractal alive or totally irrelevant in your opinion? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
BITCOIN Hidden Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern points to $165k!As Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is battling to break its 1W MA50 and extend the rally of the new Bull Cycle, as all previous Cycles did, we looked at the 1W time-frame from a different angle and present to you an outlook that may have gone overlooked.
As you see, every BTC Cycle Bottom can be viewed as the Head of a giant Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern. The first two Cycles topped on the 3.0 Fibonacci extension counting from the 0.786 retracement level of the previous Cycle's top-to-bottom. The most recent Cycle topped on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension.
As you see an uncanny constant on all Cycles so far is that the first High coming out of the Bear Cycle (that gives a pull-back that breaks below the 1W supertrend indicator) has always reached (or almost) the 0.786 Fib of the previous Cycle's Top. Assuming that is the completion of the Right Shoulder of the IH&S pattern, we measure the Fibs from the bottom and end up with the 3.0 Fib extension Top on the first two Cycles and the 2.0 Fib Top on the third (previous) Cycle.
A repeat of the moderate 2019 - 2021 Cycle to the 2.0 Fib extension gives as a projected Top for the current Bull Cycle at $165000! Do you agree that this is realistic in the next 2 years? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
BTCUSD Falling Wedge driving to the lower Supports.Bitcoin is now bearish on the 1D time frame (RSI = 40.648, MACD = -188.700, ADX = 20.767) as it has completed 3 weeks trading inside a Falling Wedge pattern that crossed today under the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This Wedge is guiding gradually the price to the lower Supports of S1 (21,375) and S2 (20,425) and will continue to do so unless it breaks to the upside.
The chart shows that the Fibonacci levels form very accurate Supports and Resitances. We will be buy each time a candle closes over a Fibonacci level and target the one above. Likewise, we will sell every time a candle close below a Fibonacci level and target the lower one (so far only Fib 0.786 and eventually 1.0 the bottom are left to the downside).
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
BITCOIN A Fibonacci Circles Roadmap you've never seen before!This is a unique representation of the Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Cycles using the Fibonacci Circles, a tool than certainly prints a very interesting Roadmap relative to the previous historic Cycles. The chart focuses on the last two Cycles but for a more complete projection we also incorporate 2015 - 2017.
Each Cycle's epicenter is located on the candle that breaks and closes below the horizontal Bear Cycle Support. The 2022 Bear Cycle bottomed on the 2.618 Fib extension while the 2018 Bear Cycle started rising on the 1.618 Fib. It is no coincidence that the current struggle on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is done exactly on the 2.618 Fib as in April 2019, the same 1W MA50 struggle was done on the edge of Fib 1.618. The symmetricity between the Cycles is striking indeed. In that regard, the current Bull Cycle appears to be more similar with the 2015 -2017 Bull Cycle as its 1W MA50 struggling was also made on the 2.618 Fib. That Cycle didn't really start rising before hitting Fib 3.618 as you can see on the chart below:
We have plotted both of those two past Cycles on the current Bull Cycle, based on which Fib they bottomed. As you can see the representation offers valuable insight as to how the current Cycle may evolve. It is very likely to see a pull-back to Fibonacci 3.618 before the 1W MA50 finally breaks and starts the real Bull Cycle rally.
Do you think that's a realistic scenario or the next Cycle Fib will be breached at a much higher (than the current) level? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Bitcoin Outlook 7th March 2023Following the news that Silvergate Capital Corp suspended its crypto payments network and expressed doubts over the viability of its business, Bitcoin and most other crypto currencies crash to trade significantly lower.
Before the news, Bitcoin was trading slightly above the 23,400 price level with market expectations that the price could reach 25,000.
However, Bitcoin broke below the 23,000 support level to trade down to the 22,000 support level following the Silvergate news.
Currently consolidating along the 22,500 price level, it is more likely that Bitcoin could see further downside, especially if the price breaks out of the consolidation to the downside.
Beyond 22,000, the next key support level is at 21,400.
BITCOIN Moment of truth to confirm or dismiss the 2019 fractal!There has been tons of talk about Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) similarity of the current bottom reversal with the 2019 one. A lot of comparisons have been made, we've started doing that since November, but the time has come that BTC either confirms or dismisses the 2019 fractal.
As you see on the left chart (2023) the consolidation within the Bullish Megaphone that Bitcoin has been trading in for the whole month of December is naturally creating an RSI Bearish Divergence due to the aggressive January rally. We can see the very same formations in 2019 (right chart), with the RSI supported by a Higher Lows trend-line. The time-frames are different (3D against 2D) to account for the fundamental noise and serve better the purpose of comparison.
The market has now no other choice but to make its move by either validating the 2019 fractal by breaking above the orange trend-line or negating it and end the comparison discussions once and for all.
What do you think the market has in store for us? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
BITCOIN Limited by the weekly candle body Resistance.Many have been focusing in the past days at the inability of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) to close above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). Surely that is essential for maintaining the pace of the January - February rally and as we've analyzed recently, it draws comparisons with the past Cycles where they were testing their own 1W MA50.
** Resistance/ Support levels based on the 1W candle closing **
Another, overlooked for sure, aspect on the 1W time-frame the Resistance/ Support levels enforced by the 1W (weekly) candle closings. As you see on this chart, BTC not only failed to close (despite breaking it) above the 1W MA50 in the previous 2 weeks but also failed to close those candles above the 24360 Resistance which has been formed since the weekly candle of July 18 2022. As you see no candle closed above that Resistance level in July - August and the recent failures certainly show its importance. The same can be said about the 1W candle body Support at 18750, which held all weekly closings above it from June until the FTX crash.
** The Vortex Indicator **
As a result, a weekly close above 24360 will achieve a double bullish break-out as not only will it close above the 1W MA50 for the first time since April 25 2022 but also above the most important horizontal Resistance on the 1W time-frame. In order to keep things into a long-term perspective, we have added on this analysis the Vortex Indicator (VI), widely used in previous years, that has been on a Bullish Cross since mid-January. This shows that the new Bull Cycle has started and is still in its early stages.
** Projection **
It appears that even though they are not absolute, the Fibonacci retracement levels will play some part as Resistance levels in this new rally. Once BTC makes this double bullish break-out, we have the 1W M100 (green trend-line) as the next pressure level, hence potential Target and if the second part of the rally is as strong as January, it can make contact with the 1W MA100 around the 0.5 Fibonacci level, which is roughly at $32650.
So what do think? Is this 1W candle body Resistance the level to break? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
RLinda ! ETHUSDT-> ethereum continues to consolidate ETH continues to consolidate within the local uptrend. This accumulation is clearly aimed at a retest of the resistance area of the descending channel.
The local support trendline indicates that the price is in the long zone. The triangle, the upper boundary of which coincides with the channel resistance, indicates consolidation.
Earlier on the daily chart, price bullishly tested the 50-day moving average. Bulls continue to test the resistance for a breakout
In the medium term, I expect a breakout of the resistance of the descending price channel in the area of 1650-1675 and an upward movement of the price to the resistance zone of 2020.
Regards R. Linda!
BITCOIN 1 year left until the next Halving! Start to DCA!As we left February behind, few realize that there is only 1 year left for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) before the next Halving (no4) as it will experience this supply shock event in March 2024! This 1W time-frame, is a simple illustration of why it is still a good idea to start Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA).
** Similarities with past Cycles. 1W MA50 test **
We see a lot of similarities with past cyclical positioning on this date, particularly with the previous two Cycles. As you see 371 days (53 weeks) before their Halving events, both Cycle 3 on April 29 2019 and Cycle 2 on June 29 2015 were already on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) attempting to break it, but at the time failing to. This is exactly where BTC is at right now. This symmetry is uncanny. Needless to say that it doesn't hold on Cycle 1, which was much more aggressive, hence shorter.
** The 0.618 Fibonacci at the time of the Halving **
It is equally interesting to see that at the time of each Halving, the price was on or marginally above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the Cycle's bottom. In November 12 2012 it was at $12 (marginally above Fib 0.618), in July 04 2016 it was at $690 (little above Fib 0.618) while in May 04 2020 it was at $10000 (exactly on Fib 0.618). This model suggest that if Bitcoin is trading again at least on its 0.618 Fib at the time of Halving 4 (March 2024), then it will be around $40000. Whether it breaks this level earlier and then retreats back to it, this projection doesn't associate with, it simply suggests where it could be at the time of Halving 4.
Do you think we will be at $40k then by March 2024? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this analysis!
BITCOIN Breakthrough Fibonacci Grid mapping the new Cycle!This is a unique analysis of Bitcoin displayed on a grid pattern made of the Fibonacci retracement levels (black trend-lines) applied from the top of the previous Bull Cycle to the bottom of the Bear Cycle and the Fibonacci extension levels (blue trend-lines) applied on the Lower Lows and Lower Highs of the Bear Cycle.
Using the Symmetrical Pivots as the new Resistance levels/ gaps to be filled, we have mapped a potential course using those as targets on Bitcoin's way to reach its $69000 All Time High by Halving 4 (March 2024).
Can that be useful in identifying potential volatility zones and mapping a course on this Bull Cycle that has just started? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Bitcoin Short Term Sell IdeaD1 - Price respected a strong resistance zone and is bouncing lower.
Bearish divergence.
Price still has room lower towards the key support zone.
H1 - Bearish trend pattern.
Currently it looks like a correction is happening.
Until the two strong resistance zones hold my short term view remains bearish here.
BITCOIN The Fear & Greed Index prompts to an immediate rally!On this chart, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is shown on the 1W time-frame using the Fear & Greed Indicator (F&GI). A month ago it broke above 50, which is the neutral level between Fear and Greed. Since then it has stabilized sideways around 55 as the market is split with some being greedy for further rise while others waiting for a good pull-back to enter.
Historically however, every time the F&GI broke above 50, the Cycle bottom was in and BTC was at the beginning of an aggressive rally. In both of the previous 2 Cycles, the immediate target before a mid-Cycle pull-back was the 0.786 Fibonacci (green flag). This level on the current Cycle is at $50000!
Do you think this will be next? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Bitcoin: Higher Low Buy Signal.Bitcoin swing trade long signal in play from the 23,250 level. If bullish momentum follows through, a higher high can follow with a test of the 26 to 28K AREA over the coming week. This move has prompted me to call for a risk adjustment on the short trade that I shared privately from the 24,150 level. At this point, that trade is now RISK FREE if you adjust the stop.
In my previous article, I described the compelling argument for a Wave 5 completion and anticipated the beginning for a corrective structure (Wave 2). While it's possible Wave 2 may be in progress, I'm not willing to get stuck in any opinions. While there is a broader 5 wave structure in place, it can extend itself for whatever reason. The short term trend is bullish and until that changes, I expect less from bearish signals. That means play strong defense, reduce risk as quickly as possible and/or take profits when a conflicting signal appears.
As far as longs go, there is a higher low established at the 23,250 area, This is the reference point to measure risk which is about 2K points. If the 26K area is used to measure the profit potential, the reward/risk is about 1.5:1. I have laid out enough information here for you to arrive at your own conclusion in terms of a swing trade idea.
This game is more about quantifying risk and assessing probabilities which can be done with information that is available on a chart. You just have to know what information carries any value. Unless you have inside info, the LESS retail nonsense you consume, the better able you will be to make sound judgements.
All markets today are extremely efficient, and only getting more so. Mean while short term profits come from inefficiencies. This means if you are unable to identify a very specific opportunity and why it should exist, then you are playing a completely random game. You might as well flip a coin, because you will get the same result. Can't build an account that way.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.
BTCUSDTBitcoin Price Prediction For Tomorrow, Next Week and Next Month
As you can see for few weeks Bitcoin was very low volatile and it seems like bitcoin stock at 25000$ to 24000$ But as we mention we are not in a bull and still hoping for bitcoin to get crash as soon as possible,
we Deducted a Pattern which is called Bullish Shark pattern The shark pattern which is Mentioned in our Book is Developing in Bitcoin in a weekly timeframe, it almost developed its Three legs, these three legs took two much time to developed but here more leg need to complete the pattern, however no one can predict that how long this leg is going to take in developing but according to rule we conformed that there is one more leg,
For full article check out the website fibcrypto.com
BITCOIN Radical Grid Fibonacci analysis you've never seen beforeAs Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has taken a short-term paus on its early 2023 rally on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), following the first Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame since May 2020, we naturally go back to the start of the previous Bull Cycle in 2019 to see how it behaved on this important stress test.
** The 2019 Bull Cycle **
As you see, BTC also took a sideways pause on its 1W MA50 in April 2019, also after a 1D Golden Cross, while being above the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level (blue dotted trend-lines) of its Cycle High. So far the current Cycle with 2019 are identical.
** The Channel Fibonacci levels **
We decided to take this symmetry a step forward in order to get a better understanding of how the new Cycle may play out. We have applied the Fibonacci Channel (green trend-line) starting of course from the December 2017 High. As you see, the Cycle's 1st rally, which is what we are experiencing now, firmly traded within the 0.5 - 0.618 Channel Fibonacci levels (green) before getting rejected on the 0.786 horizontal Fib (blue). The Cycle's 2nd rally, which was the final and most aggressive part of the Bull Cycle, was within the 0.786 - 0.936 Channel Fibs (green).
** The Time Fibonacci levels **
Besides the Channel and horizontal Fibs, we have incorporated the Time Fibs (black vertical lines). Starting from the top of the previous Bear Cycle (December 2017) and ending at its bottom (December 2018), we see that it has more or less classified each part of the Cycle and even caught pretty well the next Bear Cycle, roughly within Time Fib 4.0 - 5.0.
Based on that model, the new Cycle's 1st rally should be within Time Fib 5.0 - 6.0 and the 2nd rally some time after Time Fib 6.0. It is widely known that the Halving events (supply shock for Bitcoin) is what officially start the final rallies. In 2020 that was in May and the next one (Halving 4) will be in March 2024.
** Conclusion **
Based on the above parameters put together, we are now experiencing Bitcoin's 1st rally of the new Bull Cycle, within Channel Fibs 1.5 - 1.618. The 2nd rally should start fundamentally after March 2024 (Halving 4), but technically it can do so if the price closes a 1D (or even better 1W) candle above horizontal Fib 0.786. By Time Fib 7.0, the market should have made a new All Time High (i.e. be above $69000) and by Time Fib 8.0 already place the new Cycle Top.
Do you agree with the projections suggested by this Fibonacci Grid Model? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Season of the bull 😤 It was an interesting start of the new week as traders gathered round in mass and tried to break support. The dip that should have been bought has passed and now we can only buy in higher. But fear not, this is only the beginning of the new run, the lows are in and we can enjoy months of up only. Macro doesn't matter in these times as greed will only fuel the beast. So I ask of you, are you in or will you watch from the sidelines? The time to act is upon us.
Mirror MarketBe like the sea.
Bitcoin is finding its feet once more.
Bear pressure is lifting. The Chinese are buying.
Compare the past and predict inverse price action. Median line illustrated.
33,333 magnet.
BITCOIN Bearish Correction Ahead! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
BITCOIN grew super fast
In the last 24 hours and
The coin is overbought
So as it is retesting
The horizontal resistance
A bearish correction
Seems to be inevitable
Sell!
Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading!
See other ideas below too!
Could the market recovery take another 11 months?Looking a the past bear markets we can make an educated guess as to when this current bear market might end, when the accumulation phase will start and when we might see another recovery, (and maybe even a bull run in the far horizon).
Historically the same happened in the previous bear market, (not shown in the chart), but I will use the last 2 for illustration. The previous bear markets had less data, (less trading), but the same information holds)
2018-2019 Bear market
One of the first bear market with enough data, showed us that it lasted about 370 days, as well as a drop of 85% from the all time high, this was then followed by a short accumulation period and then 170 days to the next top.
The growth from the bottom to the next high was about 300%, it did not take us to a new ATH, but the market was a lot healthier and started moving sideway from then on until the next Bull run.
There was less uncertainty in the market, (investment was coming back in the market, less fud and so on).
2022-2023 Bear market
Using the same logic as the previous bear markets, we can go from the ATH and see that 370 days should take us to November 2022 and could see a candle or two as low as $12K, (using the 85% drop).
There would then be a short period of accumulation followed by 170 days of growth and a 300% jump from there.
That would take us to June 2023 and around $48K, then the market should be a lot more positive again.
Even if the bottom was reached now, or we do not go as low as $12K, the macro economic factors do not show any kind of turnaround until the end of 2023
In summary
The bottom would be around $12K to $15K
The market will be unpredictable until November 2022
If we do not reach $15K then the market will keep moving sideway as traders will be expecting new lower lows.
The recovery will be slow and take us to June 2023
The next full bull run should be in 2024, another indication that a solid recovery should happen in the middle of 2023.
To be clear, the recovery will not see us to new ATH, but rather in a much more confortable, positive and healthy position, the next 'true' bull run should happen around the next halving in May 2024.
Bitcoin - BTC frost zone❄️& heat zone🌞scenarioBitcoin frost zone❄️& heat zone🌞scenario
Look at the great Entry🌞and Exit❄️points for a BTC bullish run in past heat zones🌞
And now... next cross ahead⁉️🚨
Give me a ♥️ if you ♥️
Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗
⬇️⬇️⬇️
Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗
Disclaimer:
Not financial advice
Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
BITCOIN The Pitchfork approach that reveals the Bull Run!Why don't we see the Pitchfork tool applied to Bitcoin (BTCUSD)? We show on today's analysis that this often very overlooked technical tool has been particularly spot on at identifying BTC's Bull Runs.
It is a simple application and we will keep the commentary that way. As you see on this 1W time-frame, we have applied the Pitchfork from Bitcoin's first Low to the 2014/15 Bear Cycle. As you see the Fibs drawn, provide an excellent framework for the majority of the Bull Cycle's trajectory:
* The 2015-2017 Bull Run was almost entirely within the 0.5 (dashed blue trend-line) and 1.0 (solid blue) Fibs, until it broke in the final month of the Bull Cycle to peak on the FibMA Multiple 7.
* The 2019-2021 Bull Run started off more aggressively as it was initially hyped by the Libra news but later corrected within the 1.5 (dashed black) and 2.0 (solid black) Fibs.
* The new Bull Run has started after the November (FTX crash) bottom and is now within the 2.5 (dashed orange) and 3.0 (solid orange) Fibs. This should technically by the new Channel Up for the new Bull Run.
It appears that each Bull Run is a whole 1.0 Fib level lower than the previous one. This is consistent with Bitcoin's Theory of Diminishing returns over time.
Also all bottoms hit or came extremely close to the 1W MA350 (bold green line).
We can estimate in addition a rough 121 week (847 day) time range from the bottom of the Cycle to the Top of the top of the next one. This gives us a projection for the next Cycle Peak on March 2025.
As for what price the actual Top can hit? Moderate scenario the Multiple 5 (orange) and aggressive scenario the Multiple 7 (red).
Do you agree with the conclusions of this Pitchfork approach? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
BITCOIN Alignment of Cycles is the Ultimate Cheatsheet!We have done similar studies before, aligning past Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Cycles to get a projection of the current one. We have used Halvings, Peaks, Bottoms etc but this is the first time that we don't just use everything into one mega analysis, but also incorporate the Fibonacci retracement and extension levels that show not only the Buy Zones put also the peak projection, making this study the Ultimate Cheatsheet!
** Cycles Tops and Bottoms **
The chart is pretty much self-explanatory. The time-frame on the 1W (weekly) and the starting point of all Cycles (we use the past 3, the first one is too aggressive to be relative for conclusion on this study), is their respective Tops/ Peaks. We didn't distort any Cycle, all are just they way given by the Bars Pattern on their log scale. The orange trend-line represents Cycle 2022/23 (the current one), the black trend-line represents Cycle 2018/21 and the blue trend-line represents Cycle 2014/17.
** Cycle Convergence - Divergence and the Buy Zones **
As you see, their alignment during their Bear Phase of their Cycles is remarkably tight, as the don't diverge by as much as one would expect. With the use of the Fibonacci levels, taking as Fib 0.0 the bottom of the 2018/21 Cycle (Black), we can designate two Buy Zones: The first one within Fib 0.382 - 0.236 and the Ultimate within Fib 0.236 - 0.0. As you see the current Cycle made a bottom and bounced just over the Ultimate Buy Zone.
What's really interesting, is that the 2014/17 (Blue) and 2018/21 (Black) Cycles always converged after a divergence, which simply indicates the standard nature of the course of each Bull Cycle. We have to mention at this stage that the big divergencies of the 2018/21 Cycle was first on the April - June 2019 rally due to Facebook's Libra enthusiasm/ speculation and second September - March 2020 due to the massive money printing and rescue packages to stimulate the economy from the COVID lockdowns.
** The amazing Halving Symmetry **
We have also incorporated the Halvings and as you see the symmetry is astonishing as all there are within a 2 month range. Halving 4, which is the next one is in the middle (May 2024), Halving 3 is on the left (May 2020) while Halving 2 is on the right (July 2016). This is just another demonstration of Cycle stability. Keep in mind that the Halving events are major cyclical events for Bitcoin as they cause a Supply Shock, thus stimulating the Demand. It is no coincidence that the Phase of the Parabolic Rallies has always started after the Halving.
** Where will this Cycle Peak? **
As for the projected peak, since every Cycle offers diminishing returns, the Peak is (or should be) lower each time. The 2014/17 Cycle (Blue) peaked on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension and the 2018/21 (Black) peaked on the 1.618 Fib. The next range in line is the 1.382 - 1.236 Fib Zone, which is approximately within $100k - $132k. A projected path (orange dotted line) to this Target Zone doesn't again diverge much from the other Cycles.
We have to also account for outside fundamentals/ news, moving the projected trend higher if news like those in 2019 (Libra) or 2020 (stimulus) inject a new wave of enthusiasm into the market. For that reason, we have added a projected path to an extremely positive scenario (see chart below) than trends in the middle of the Black and Blue Cycles and shows a Peak above Fib 1.618, roughly above $250k. Unrealistic or not, it is a projection taken from this specific model.
Do you think this is the Ultimate Cheatsheet for Bitcoin or not? Feel free to let us know why in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
