BTCUSD: Phase 4 of Bull Cycle just started.Bitcoin is about to turn neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.562, MACD = -3343.000, ADX = 34.423) as it is making a big 1W comeback on this week's candle following a nearly perfect touch of the 1W MA50. Every test of the 1W MA50, as well as every test of the S1 1W RSI level, has been a straight buy opportunity inside the Bull Cycle's Channel Up since the very begining of the November 2022 bottom.
As first the price action was concentrated on the lower half of the Channel Up (green zone) but since February 2024 it has been primarily on the upper half (blue zone) as the rallies got more aggressive, with the only exceptions being the 1W MA50 tests such as the current one (green Arcs). Every bottom rebound has increased by at least +98.76%, so that gives us a peak estimate of TP = 150,000. An temprary high around 120k and pullback to 100-90k is a possible scenario based on all previous rallies/ Phases. Phase 4, which should technicall be the final of the Bull Cycle, has just started.
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Bitcoin-btcusd-btc
BITCOIN Is this a Falling Wedge bottom formation?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is trading since the February 28 Low within a Falling Wedge pattern, below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and at the same time supported by the 1W MA50 (red trend-line).
Throughout its dominant Bull Cycle pattern, the +2 year Channel Up, it has formed another 6 such Falling Wedges, all below the 1D MA50 and all turned out to be market bottom formations, which paved the way for an immediate bullish break-out. On all occasions, the 1D CCI has been almost as low as on the February Low.
The shortest rebound it made before another break below the 1D MA50, was +26.68% and the highest was +106.96%. As a result this gives us a minimum immediate potential Target of $96800 and a maximum of a little more than $150000. Given that the price has touched the bottom of the long-term Channel Up, like the bottom formations of September 06 2024 and September 11 2023, it is quite likely to see the stronger rebound probability taking place.
But what do you think would be the case? Is this a classical Falling Wedge bottom break-out formation and if so what may be the Target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Money Supply, Dollar and Bonds pushing for MEGA RALLY!This is not the first time we publish a Bitcoin (BTCUSD) analysis in relation to the U.S. Dollar Index (green trend-line) or Chinese Bonds (red trend-line) and Global Liquidity (blue trend-line). In fact we have been doing this since the late 2022 bands in China and like the highly bearish sentiment that was in the market then, we decided to dive into this cross-asset analysis yet again in order to put the current sentiment in perspective.
Well it couldn't be more relevant. What we discovered is that all the financial assets mentioned above have yet again aligned to offer the strongest bullish confirmation for BTC since the November 2022 Bear Cycle bottom!
More specifically, we are a little past the point where the DXY peaks and declines aggressively, Global Liquidity bottoms and starts rising, while Chinese bonds (our CN02Y/CN20Y ratio) bottom and rise aggressively. In the past 10 years this combination of events has happened 6 times, 2 times during each Cycle: one at the bottom of the Cycle and the other when the final, most aggressive rally starts.
Notice also that (naturally) this is where the stock market (SPX, black trend-line) also bottoms and starts rising aggressively.
As a result, the above market conditions are an indication that despite the recent monthly correction and turbulence due to a number geopolitical and other trade fundamental reasons, the macro-economic parameters remain intact for the wider picture of this Cycle. Truthfully, this is where an announcement next week of future Fed Rate Cuts would come very handy.
So what do you think of this analysis above? Are you fearful that a new Bear Cycle is starting or more confident that the market will soon recover and price a new High? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin - The Uptrend Remains 100% Valid!Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) can create a textbook break and retest:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Over the past couple of weeks we have only been seeing a consolidation on all cryptocurrencies, governed by the slow movement on Bitcoin. With today's drop Bitcoin is now approaching the previous all time highs, which are now acting as a major support, pushing price much higher.
Levels to watch: $70.000, $300.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
BTCUSD: Last 1W MA50 rebound to the top of the CycleBitcoin remains bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 40.004, MACD = -3484.800, ADX = 36.461) but today we see the first recovery attempt. The technical reasoning behind it is that the market is testing its 1W MA50 and in due time it will price the new HL of the Bull Cycle and form the bottom that will hold for the rest of the year until the cycle's very top. This is no different than the last two Cycles, the 1W RSI is even rebounding on its S1 level. Based on that pattern we are looking at a potential Cycle peak between 150k - 200k.
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BITCOIN Cycle pattern completed. Year-end Target locked at $150kBitcoin (BTCUSD) is showing the first signs of life after nearly testing the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) early this week. Whether this leads to a full on recovery or not, can been partially answered by this Cycle's price action so far.
Historically we do know that BTC's Bull Cycles so far tend to peak towards the end of their 3rd year and that's 2025. This Cycle has been predominantly trading within a Fibonacci Channel Up, since its very start, the November 2022 bottom. Its 1W MA50 has been supporting since the March 13 2023 break-out, so it's been exactly 2 years of holding and throughout this time period has provided two excellent buy opportunities.
As you can see, the Channel Up can be classified into two main Phases so far: each has a Primary correction (red) of more than -30% drop, followed by a rally (blue), then a Secondary correction (yellow) of more than -20%, followed by the second and last rally (blue). All rallies have so far been around +100%. Based on this model, we are now on the Secondary correction of Phase 2.
Notice that all corrections (either primary or secondary) hit or approached apart from the 1W MA50, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from their previous Low. This is actually the first time that the price has marginally broken below the 0.382 Fib. At the same time, the 1D RSI almost got oversold last week (34.50) and according to the August 05 2024 (Higher) Low, this is were a series of RSI Higher Lows would be a signal of a new bottom formation.
The bottom and recovery process may take a while though, another 4-6 weeks. According to the Time Fibs (blue dashed vertical lines), each correction (whether primary or secondary) has ended at or a little before the 1.0 Fib with the 0.0 being the bottom of the previous one and 0.5 Fib the Top of the rally. Based on this, we can expect the new rally to start by the week of April 28 the latest.
So now as to how high this can get, if it repeats the 'weakest' rally of the Channel's three so far, it should rise by +95.95%, which gives us a straight price of $150000 as a Target. If the rally symmetry also holds, this should come by late September, perfectly aligning with Bitcoin's historic Cycle expectation for the final year.
Do you think that will be the case? Recovery starting within 4-6 weeks and if so, are you expecting $150k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Short term Channel Down rebounding.Bitcoin / BTCUSD is having a rebound after the price hit the bottom of the 10 day Channel Down.
The bullish wave should attempt at least a +13.73% rise (similar to the previous one) and target 87000.
That is the short term bullish plan as the price may be rejected again at the top of the Channel Down.
If however the 4hour MA200 breaks, it will be the first time since February 4th and should be enough to restore the long term bullish bias back to the market.
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BITCOIN Great Investment Opportunity! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
BITCOIN keeps falling down
In a strong correction move
But the coin will soon hit a
Massive key horizontal
Demand level of 72,500$
From where a bullish
Rebound and a move up
Is likely to happen
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
BITCOIN Is this the last defense before the narrative changes?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) got yet again increasingly volatile during the weekend and is approaching the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). As mentioned on the title, this is "the last defense" for BTC as so far this price action hasn't diverged a bit from the Channel Up of the 2015 - 2017 Bull Cycle but a break and 1W candle close below it, would jeopardize that.
** The key 1W MA50 **
In fact the only times that Bitcoin closed below its 1W MA50 during a Bull Cycle and the Cycle continued was of course during the March 2020 COVID global market flash crash and November 18 2019. But the current Bull Cycle is nothing like in 2019 - 2021, it doesn't have the initial overextension of the Libra hype (May - June 2019) or Elon's early 2020 hype nor of course the pandemic shutdown. On the contrary it is incredibly similar with 2015 - 2017 with the only difference being that, thanks to the ETF launch in January 2024, the market marginally breached the previous All Time High (ATH) earlier.
** Symmetry playing out **
So back to the similarities between those two Cycles. The Cycle count indicates that we are at the end of the (blue) Bull Rectangle in March 2017 (847 days) when the price almost tested the 1W MA50 and then started the (green) Parabolic Phase to new ATHs (217 days). Even in terms of 1W RSI and MACD, the two fractals are similar, with the RSI being on its 2nd 'Buy the dip Volatility Phase' bottom and the MACD on its 2nd Bullish Cross.
** How high can it get? **
Now as to how high the new Cycle Top can be, can be anybody's guess, but if it repeats the less aggressive 2021 Top, it could be on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, i.e. around $170k, while if it repeats the (much more unrealistic for such short period of time in terms of market cap) 2017 Top, it could be on the 2.382 Fib ext, i.e. around $520k. The worst case scenario is to have Fib extension Tops on a decreasing rate, in which case the 1.5 - 1.382 levels are next, giving us a potential target range of 120k - 145k, which would be almost a Double Top similar to November 2021.
So what do you think? Will the 1W MA50 come to Bitcoin's rescue yet again or the narrative will change this time? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN $BTCUSD | BTC BEARISH TREND & STRATEGIC BITCOIN RESERVEBITCOIN BITSTAMP:BTCUSD | BTC BEARISH TREND & STRATEGIC BITCOIN RESERVE Mar09'25
Sparros Exchange Trend Table:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Weekly: Bullish
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Daily: Bearish
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 4H: Bearish
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 1H: Bearish
Bitcoin Zones:
Bitcoin BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $90,500 - $106,000
Bitcoin DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $84,000 - $90,500
Bitcoin SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $69,000 - $84,000
Bitcoin is currently trading at $86,000, reflecting a bearish trend after reaching its all-time high nearly two months ago. The cryptocurrency has experienced substantial volatility, with the price having previously consolidated in higher ranges.
As of recent developments, the U.S. government has announced a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve," indicating the government’s growing commitment to digital assets. This move is seen as part of a broader strategy to strengthen the U.S.'s position as a leader in the global digital currency space, though no specific amount of Bitcoin has been disclosed for this reserve.
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
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BITCOIN may take 1 month to form bottom but upside is huge.Bitcoin / BTCUSD is consolidating on the 1 stdev below following February's pullback.
With the 1day RSI rebounding after turning oversold, this reminds us of all the previous major Lows of the current Bull Cycle.
Those took around 1.5 - 2 months to be priced, so don't be susprised if Bitcoin doesn't rise before mid April.
The upside until the end of the year remains huge however and if it 'only' tests again the Mean MM, it can reach $140k.
If it approaches the 1 stdev above, the estimated value can be as high as $180k.
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BITCOIN and the People's Bank of China Liquidity.Bitcoin / BTCUSD is often correlated with traditional assets that can be easily related to like the USD, stock indices etc.
On this idea we introduce the Liquidity of the People's Bank of China and as you can see there is a strong correlation between the two.
Every time China's central bank pumps money into the markets, BTC enters a strong Bull Phase. On the contrary, when it starts tightening, BTC enters a Bear Phase.
For the past two years we've been inside a Bull Cycle. Towards the end of 2025, the Liquidity should have topped based on the Time Cycle tool, and that should be our signal to exit the market with the highest profit possible in this Cycle.
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BTCUSD: Historic comparison shows hyper rally about to begin.Bitcoin turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 55.581, MACD = 979.600, ADX = 19.348) as it recovered last week's selloff and rebounded on its 1D MA200. Technically the pattern since 2024 is identical to 2020 as you can see on the chart above. The moment Bitcoin crossed again above its 1D MA50, a new hyper rally started. This suggests that a final target inside the 160,000 - 200,000 Zone is quite possible to take place.
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BITCOIN Like a well tuned Swiss clock...Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has had a red February with a correction that touched its 1D MA200 and almost hit the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), spurring massive liquidations and ETF outflows. On the wider picture though and the long-term technical trend of this Cycle, this looks nothing more than a normal technical pull-back at the start of the last year of the Bull Cycle.
More specifically, since the start of the current Bull Cycle following the November 2022 market bottom, BTC has been replicating to almost perfection the 2015 - 2017 Bull Cycle. As this chart on the 1W time-frame shows, every medium-term top and bottom since July 2023, matches harmonically the tops and bottoms since July 2015.
In addition, the 1W RSI is now on its 2nd bottom of the 'Buy the dip Volatility Phase', which started after the Higher Lows trend-line that was initiated on the market bottom, peaked and turned sideways. In 2016 - 2017, that was the ultimate guide to buy low through Bitcoin's last year of Bull Cycle all the way to the Top.
Based on this analogy, BTC should now form a Channel Up that might form the next Higher High in June, pull-back in July, then new Higher High in August, pull-back in September and final push for a Cycle Top around November. Based on this pattern, this may very well be around $200k but again, a 1W RSI top sell signal is more fitting.
But do you think the market will continue replicating the 2015 - 2017 Bull Cycle all the way to the top? And if yes, is a $200k peak plausible? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Is this a healthy Bull Cycle pullback or new BEAR CYCLE?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has broken below the $90k barrier, reaching so far today 89000. The market is undeniably bleeding and this is roughly a -19% price decrease from January's All Time High (ATH). Talks about the end of this Bull Cycle have resurfaced again, but is this the start of a new Bear Cycle or simply a usual technical pull-back during a Bull Cycle?
Well we can find the answer by examining the 3 most recent Bull Cycles. As you can see, such declines are common during Bull Cycles, and they've been very well present on the current (2023 - 2025) Bull Cycle as well.
Going back to the 2015 - 2017 Bull Cycle, we can see four -40% corrections, with an average Cycle decline of -35.28%. The average in the following Bull Cycle (2019 - 2021) declined to -26.12% with many -30% corrections this time. On the current Cycle, the average is so far -23.60% with the vast majority of corrections being around -20%, which is exactly what we are up against at the moment.
As you realize, the corrections have been greater in the past, which is natural as so were the total Cycle gains, so the higher the rallies, the stronger the corrections have been. As Bitcoin started to normalize, become mainstream and adopted, the Cycles returns started to diminish, offering subsequently smaller/ more manageable pull-back phases.
As a result, it is very likely for BTC to be experiencing at the moment a typical Bull Cycle pull-back and equally probable not to diverge much from the -20% mark of the current Cycle standard.
But what do you think? Is this the start of a new Bear Cycle or just a Bull Cycle pull-back? And if it's the latter, will it stop around the current -20% levels? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Drops Below Major Support - Is $93,000 the Next Target?COINBASE:BTCUSD has decisively broken below a key support level, signaling a potential shift in momentum. The recent price action shows a rejection at this broken support, now acting as resistance, indicating that sellers are regaining control. This rejection reinforces the bearish outlook, as failed attempts to reclaim the level suggest continued downside pressure.
If bearish momentum persists, BTC could extend its decline toward the $93,000 support zone, a key level where buyers may attempt to step in. However, a sustained move back above the resistance zone would invalidate the bearish setup, signaling a potential shift in momentum. In this scenario, buyers could regain strength, possibly driving the price higher and negating the bearish bias.
Traders should remain cautious and monitor price action around these key levels to confirm directional bias before committing to a position. Risk management remains essential, given the volatility of BTC/USD.
BITCOIN Can it reach 200k by the end of the year?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is under a heavy consolidation for the whole month of February bringing discomfort to the market, which thought that an immediate rally in 2025 was in order. Libra's rug pull and last week's ByBit's hack didn't help, quite the contrary, the first calls of a Bear Market have started to resurface again.
This chart on the 1W time-frame however, pays good justice as to the situation BTC is currently facing. First of all, the price has dropped below the Mayer Multiple 1SD above (grey trend-line), which is not encouraging as in the previous Cycle this only happened in mid-May 2021 and in the two Cycles before, didn't happen until the new Bear Cycles started.
This isn't however that alarming as it was natural for Bitcoin to be more aggressive during its first years, with the price so low (and with much greater potential ahead of it) and the market capitalization still in infant stages.
This is why, as you may notice, the Parabolic Channels get less and less aggressive on each passing Cycle, with the current one being the most 'conservative' of all. This explains why last Cycle 'only' hit the MM 2SD above (orange trend-line), while the two Cycles before that easily hit and broke above the MM 3SD above.
Naturally, we may assume the following to parameters for the remainder of the current Bull Cycle:
a) It is not necessary to hit the MM 2SD above again, in fact it is more likely not to do so.
b) Since the last two Cycles both lasted 1064 days (152 weeks) from their Bear Cycle bottom to the Bull Cycle top, we can expect the current one to top around October 06 2025.
Despite those limitations, BTC can hit the $200k mark based on the tranjectory of the current Parabolic Channel, which would still be considerably below the MM 2SD above, by the end of 2025.
Do you think that's realistic to expect or $200000 is too much to expect during this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: Bybit Hack Surprise? Watch For 90K.Bitcoin has established a lower high at the 100K range resistance. In this context it appears a support break (lower low) is more likely to follow. This means a 90K retest can unfold as early as this week. Will 90K hold? There is NO way to know, it all depends on the price action that unfolds at that level. Having opinions of the future will NOT help you at all, ESPECIALLY in this environment.
Case in point: over the previous week, we had Coinbase reveal that the SEC is planning to give up their legal case against them, Bitcoin goes to 99K. This level is the range resistance that I specifically highlighted in my previous week's article. This is followed by The Bybit hack which brought price right back to the 94K range low. Knowing your levels would have prepared you much MORE effectively to navigate the price action around these moves compared to simply reacting to the news.
One observation I would like to assert here is the fact that 99K was rejected so quickly. These situations often attract a LOT of longs who then get stuck in the trade because the unexpected reversal. These longs will be pushed out of their positions if price extends too far which will bolster selling pressure. It is this process that can facilitate the move to 90K especially if it is accelerated by more unexpected bearish news.
As a swing trader, it is best to WAIT for levels in this situation, evaluate the price action, measure risk and wait for some form of confirmation, I repeat this all the time. It is the best we can do, and AVOID trying to forecast the future. Unless you were an insider at Coinbase or a member of the hacking team, you had NO idea that these events were coming. And with the new administration in this country, new financial drama can come out of no where at any time. All I can say is focus on price levels and trend structure and you will be much better prepared than most.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BTC consolidation, The Week Ahead 24 Feb ’25 The Bitcoin (BTC) price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. However, since the spike to an all-time high of 109,000 on 20th January 2025, the BTC price action is starting to display some signs of bearish behaviour by potentially forming a double-top reversal pattern.
The key trading level is at the “Neckline” 91,900 level, which is the current swing low. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 91900 level could target the upside resistance at 100,650 (20-day moving average) followed by the 105,590 and 109,460 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the “neckline” 91,900 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 85,275 support level followed by 79917 and 75060 (200-day moving average).
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
BTCUSD: Fvg to be FIlled?Hello. Relatively new in the BTC field, any feedback will be appreciated.
As seen on my chart, im expecting price to come back and fill a FVG formed on a recent dump. Seems that we have a somewhat decent bullish trend.
My entry is based on liquidity, currently set at 96206, but I am aware we might see a stop hunt slightly below.
First TP was set on a possible liq sweep reversal point since market does not really have a strong direction as of now, and Second TP is at the fvg start point.
SL is set right below a lower high to avoid getting stopped from a stop hunt, if it reaches said point.
Please, let me see your thoughts and if possible, to get feedback and learn more together:)
BITCOIN Is the USDT dominance about to spark new rally to $150k?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been on a fierce consolidation the past few weeks, a lagging price action not helped at all by the recent market fundamentals.
From a technical view point though, the current BTC market structure is a Re-accumulation Phase similar to the Re-accumulation Phases of both previous Bullish Legs since the November 2022 bottom.
Those Re-accumulation Phases took place when the USDT dominance (chart on the right) posted a peaking 1D RSI struture similar to today's and the DXY (blue trend-line) was having a pull-back.
The current technical sequences matches the exact Re-accumulation Phases of BTC, which took place around the 0.5 Fibonacci level. If we apply this Fib structure now, even assuming the less ideal scenario that the 0.5 Fib is on the January 13 Low and not in the middle of the Re-accumulation, we get a potential Target for the upcoming rally at $150k.
SO what do you think? Can this unique USDT dominance pattern spark a new rally on Bitcoin to 150000? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Decoding the current consolidation. $112k to print soon.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been consolidating within roughly a 5000 range (100k - 94.1k) for the past 12 days. During all this time, it's been testing but never closed above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). There hasn't been a tighter consolidation of this duration in the past year and there is a technical explanation behind it.
The 3-month pattern has been a Channel Up and the last sub-1D MA50 consolidation before the current one, has been its previous bottom formation on its Higher Lows trend-line. The 1D RSI sequences between the two bottom fractals are so far identical and it appears that we are now on the way to complete Leg (f), which is the final step before a Double Bottom is formed. A new 1D MACD Bullish Cross may come as confirmation of the new Bullish Leg.
As a result, the market is close to its most optimal buy opportunity. Given that a 1.5 Fibonacci extension Target has been a fair expectation within this Channel Up, our medium-term Target on BTC after the new Bullish Cross would be $112000, which is still below the 1.5 Fib ext and very close to the top of the Channel Up.
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