Bitcoin & DXY weekly - EMA20🟢🔴Bitcoin weekly needs to stay above EMA20 with constant bounces🟢while DXY should get rejected 🔴and find another leg down👀
That might lead to a bullish rally 2023
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Bitcoin-btcusd-btc
BITCOIN rhymes perfectly with previous Cycle bottoms. 25k next!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on Friday above its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since December 31 2021, which is the level we have rendered all this time as the one that will start the new Bull Cycle. On this analysis on the 1D time-frame, we compare BTC's current Cycle bottom to those of 2018/19 and 2014/15.
As you see, during those Bottoms, when the price broke above the 1D MA200, it quickly hit the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) within 3-4 weeks, always having the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support. On the April 02 2019 1D MA200 break-out in particular, the 1D RSI hit the 89.00 level before retracing, just as it did today. These RSI retracements don't indicate trend reversals, just a re-balancing of the enormous buying pressure.
It is interesting to add that on both previous bottoms, the 1W MA50 was hit on a Resistance level (red zone) made by a previous Lower High during the Bear Cycle. This time the strongest candidate for this level appears to be 25300 (August 15 2022 Lower High).
What could happen after that? Well, as long as the 1D MA50 supports, Bitcoin can continue the rally past the 1W MA50, as it happened in May-June 2019. A break below the 1D MA50 though, could deliver one last major pull-back to the 19k-20k or even 17k supply zones, similar to what happened on August 2015.
Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin - BTC ₿reakouts🟠of the RSI cyclic indicator Bitcoin
Looking at past ₿reakouts🟠of the RSI cyclic indicator with chosen settings..
..we got crazy entry points for BTC at all
The number of floors⚫️reduced over time
Last ₿reakout at confirmation area🟢dear Crypto Nation🚨🚨🚨
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Bitcoin Renko-chart Support zones⬜️🟦🟥 Bitcoin Renko-chart Support zones⬜️🟦🟥
Get a clean view by filter out the noise dear Crypto Nation🔇😉
BTC zones to keep an eye on👀
⬜️$18k - $19k - will it turn support❓
🟦$16k - $17k - support
🟥$11k - $13k - support
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Bitcoin short-term update - BTC just smached 2017 ATH🟣Bitcoin short-term update
(a) BTC just smached 2017 ATH🟣and is at important volume resistance $21,000👀
(b) next bullish target $21,595🐂
(c) next bearish target ATH🟣at $19,892🐻
(d) even correction to area $18,000 would not be concerning
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BITCOIN is massively undervalued and here is why.On this 1W time-frame analysis we make a case why Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is massively undervalued in relation to a technical factor as well as the effect that the U.S. 10 Year Government Bonds Yield (US10Y with the black trend-line) and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY with the green trend-line) have.
Bitcoin's rise this week may come as a surprise to most but it is no coincidence. The 1W RSI has been on Higher Lows since the mid-June 2022 Low, while BTC has been trading on Lower Lows. This is a technical Bullish Divergence and a lengthy one. The times the 1W RSI prints Higher Lows sequences that low, have always been Bear Cycle Bottoms.
At the same time, we see the US10Y and the DXY (aggressively) decline simultaneously. The previous four times this happened were on a Bitcoin (aggressive) rally phase.
The fact that we get those two occurrences taking place at the same time, simply shows the underlying strength on the market at a level that macro-economically is treated as a market Bottom. Possibly indicating that if it wasn't for last year's fundamental crashes of FTX and LUNA, the price potentially would have already been much higher, showing how deeply undervalued BTC is right now.
Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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Next big short for Bitcoin 🚀❌👎⚠️ From now on, the price enters a dangerous zone.
📈 The SMI (Stochastic Momentum Index) signals an overbought region.
⌛ Waiting for a sign of weakness in the current bullish move to go short.
Bitcoin short-term update - 🚨Attention: Double Top🟠pattern Bitcoin short-term update
(a) BTC with pump to price resistance $18,355 incl. rising volume👀
(b) RSI overbought
(c) next bullish target $18,750🐂
(d) next bearish target $18,000🐻
🚨Attention: Double Top🟠pattern possible🚨
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Bitcoin (BTC) Update 1/11/2022Bitcoin price surged yesterday as it closed with higher-than-average volume. The surge in price has continued until today as it tries to escape the trend channel as well as its current resistance price at 18300. This escape will likely be successful provided that it gets the same volume of trades as yesterday.
BITCOIN 1D Can break TrendLine? According to the drawn trend line and the resistance zone, we still have the resistance of the trend line and until this zone, if not broken the trend will not rise.
If the line breaks, the analysis process will be updated.
Its not Buy or Sell SIGNAL
DYOR
BY : M.TeriZ - @AtonicShark
Bitcoin short-term view - bearish divergence on RSI🚨Bitcoin short-term update
(a) BTC reached my mentioned target of $17,500
(b) bearish divergence on RSI🚨
(c) healthy consolidation to $17.190 likely IMO (meet SMA🟡EMA🔵🐻
(d) next bullish target $18,000🐂
Keep you updated dear Crypto Nation👀
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BITCOIN Major 1WRSI bullish breakout but heavy Resistances aboveBitcoin (BTCUSD) broke above its 1W RSI Lower Highs trend-line that was holding since January 2021! As you realize this is a major bullish break-out on the long-term scale and as the price turned the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) into a Support, it is staging a bull run.
However there are still significant Resistance levels ahead. The first is the Lower Highs trend-line that started on the August 15 2022 High but perhaps the most critical one is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), currently at 19545, which is unbroken since December 31 2021. The Lower Highs trend-line of the November 10 2021 High may be the oldest Resistance running, but technically there is more weight on the 1D MA200. Finally, breaking above the 25200 August 15 High, would mean the first Higher High since the 2021 market top.
There is still significant road to cover, as the Bullish Megaphone pattern that BTC is trading in since the November FTX crash could be another sell accumulation pattern, common within the 2021/22 Bear Cycle (see the dotted Rising Wedge, Channel Up patterns). As a result, a break below its bottom (Lower Lows) can lead to the 15500 Support again, even a new Low closer to 15000. But arguably the 1W RSI Lower Highs break-out after 2 years, is a signal that shouldn't go unnoticed but unfortunately such signals among extreme psychological states (greed/ fear) tend to go unnoticed near market tops of bottoms.
Do you think this is an early sign of a market bottom and bullish reversal? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Closed above 1D MA50 for the first time in 2 months!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has closed a 1D candle and is now comfortably trading above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 2 months (since November 07 2022), turning it into a Support.
The pattern since the August 15 High is a Channel Down, within a Falling Wedge (since the June 18 2022 Low). Having lasted for almost 6 months, this can be viewed as a huge accumulation zone. In any case, there are certain fully distinct formation within this pattern.
The price action since the FTX crash started on November 06, is quite similar to that since the August 15 High. As you see both peaked on a (red) Channel, made their fist fake-out above the 1D MA50 on the (red) circle, second on the (red) Flag and the price is now back above it as it was on October 25/26, potentially forming the final Channel that will test the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down. There is also an inner Lower Highs trend-line involved (dashed).
The 1D RSI is also repeating a similar pattern. So where do we stand now? Well a break below the 1D MA50, or even more accurately the Internal (dotted) Higher Lows trend-line) should be bearish targeting the 15500 Support (November 21 Low) or even a Lower Low on the Falling Wedge's bottom.
On the upside, a break above the top of the Channel Down/ Wedge, is the first bullish sign but we won't consider it confirmed on its own. Ideally we want to see a closing above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been unbroken since 2021 (December 31), in order to justify a long-term bullish reversal. In that case, potential targets in succession will be the Fibonacci retracement levels, which as you see since the June Low, align (almost) perfectly with Support and Resistance levels.
What do you think will happen next? Do you expect BTC to break again below the 1D MA50 or hold it and finally test the 1D MA200 first? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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Financial Wave. BTCOur preferred scenario in BTC brought prices to the target that we have indicated in past reviews. The movement in wave (c) looks almost complete, growth may stop in the range of $17337-17513, and we’ll need to evaluate the behavior of Bitcoin at these levels in order to understand its further prospects.
Bitcoin Inverted: BTC Macro Bearish3 Month Intervals, Log, Inverted. (inverting BTC can sometimes help avoid bias provide a different perspective on price. )
- Looking at this objectively (as possible), BTC looks like it has broken resistance at $17,200.
- RSI looks bearish with a 4 year divergence that has broken the 50 band across multiple exchanges.
- Expectation: Possible retest of $17,200 to start the year before move beyond $13k with initial low target of $7k supported by a trend-based Fib extension.
Harbouring a macro bearish bias across equities and perhaps too much Robert Prechter recently so taken with a pinch of salt.
Best, HF
Bitcoin short-term view - BTC near volume resistance $16,960👀Bictoin short-term update
(a) BTC with pump near volume resistance $16,960👀
(b) bullish if we break above - target $17,500🐂
(b) bearish if we lose SMA+EMA support - target $16,530🐻
Have a great Day dear Crypto Nation😎
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BITCOIN Perfect symmetry with 2015 shows recovery is imminentBitcoin (BTCUSD) has been practically flat since the early November FTX crash, which was a big blow fundamentally for the market. On the 1W time-frame, this is not the first time though we see similar RSI and MACD behavior. On this chart we compare Bitcoin's price action since the April 2021 High to the Bear Cycle of 2014/15.
** The true Cycle High **
As you see there are certain striking similarities. First of all, as we've mentioned numerous times on Tradingshot , BTC's true technical top of the previous Bull Cycle was in April 2021. The October/ November 2021 rise was the extension at the peak of the tech bubble caused by trillions of 2020 rescue packages.
** Lower Highs, 1W MA50/100, RSI and MACD **
The first similarity is that the duration between each Cycle's High 1 and High 2, which is where the Lower Highs trend-line (dashed) started, was 30 weeks in 2021 and 27 weeks in 2014. During that time, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) was supporting.
After the price broke below it, following the start of the Lower Highs trend-line, it hit the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). During that whole time, the 1W MACD was on a decreasing rate, as the red histogram shows, while the 1W RSI formed an identical print.
After a rejection on the Lower Highs trend-line, Bitcoin broke below the 1W MA100 and dropped significantly, forming the lowest RSI level. That started a Higher Lows (RSI) trend-line, which is holding to this day. At the same time the MACD has flattened.
It is also interesting to see that the duration from the RSI Low up until the Bearish Cross between the 1W MA50 and 1W MA100 was 12 weeks in 2022 and 13 weeks in 2015. Again almost perfect symmetry between the two fractals.
** Where are we today? **
Getting closer to today, this time BTC maintains a considerably distance from its 1W MA50 (roughly at 26700 now) that it was in May/ June 2015 after breaking above the Lower Highs (dashed) trend-line. A rejection on the 1W MA50 caused one last low before the recovery started with Bitcoin never looking back on Higher Highs and Higher Lows.
This time however the MACD is already near the same distance as in July 2015. The last low in August 2015 was 18 weeks after the 1W MA50/100 Bearish Cross. Today, we are on the 17th week since the September 05 2022 1W MA50/100 Bearish Cross.
Does this mean that the recovery is imminent? It looks like even with a few weeks of delay, Bitcoin may be close to starting the first rally of the next Bull Cycle and never look back.
Do you agree? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BTC is testing $17K and preparing for a possible drop to $15KAfter it failed to break the Fibo 38 level @ $17800, Bitcoin is testing Fibo 23 level @ $17000 and is preparing for a possible drop to $15000 and even $13000 levels, Signs of weakness appeared clearly especially on smaller time frames, where a reflective candle formed on the hourly chart, we still need to see how the daily candle will ends.
BITCOIN The January effect. Bottom's in?January of 2023 finds Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on an interesting place. There is a recurring pattern on every BTC Cycle in relation to the January after a Bear Market. As this 1W chart shows, every time Bitcoin is sitting within the MA350 (green trend-line) and Multiple 2 (blue trend-line), the market has already formed its Bottom and the price either consolidates or starts rising almost immediately.
This has previously happened on January 2019, January 2015 and January 2015. After the price broke above Multiple 2, it never looked back (exception COVID March 2020 Black Swan event) and rose for 1.5 - 2 years.
At the time of the January bottoms, the PSO was historically oversold at -1.00. Same level it is now. Do you think we have a new "January effect" and the market has bottomed? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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