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Bitcoin-btcusd-btc

Bitcoin: 18.5K Break Scenario.Bitcoin price action has produced numerous buy and sell signals that go nowhere. How best to interpret this? Objective answers come from price structure and context which I will explain in this article. Most importantly. In these situations, RISK must be accounted for on both sides of the market. Bitcoin is consolidating between the 20,500 resistance and 18,500 support. All of the price action between these levels is nothing but random NOISE. If you are considering swing trades, it is more effective to focus on the consolidation levels and the RISK. Having an opinion, trying to “figure out” the next move, or listening to others (especially those with very dramatic emotional appeals) can be very costly in this situation. Let’s now consider the risk. When prices consolidate, often volume is increasing on both sides over time. Meaning more and more participants are getting both long and short for countless reasons. When the market breaks one way or the other, half of this population will be wrong and forced out of their positions which is what often culminates into a dramatic break followed by price momentum. No matter what side you take, you need to be very aware of what “wrong” looks like to minimize getting caught on the wrong side of this. The scenarios here are simple, how you manage them is not. IF 20,500 is cleared and price closes above it, a short squeeze to the 22K to 24K resistance becomes more likely. If you are taking the bullish break out long in anticipation of the squeeze, 18,500 becomes your point of reference for risk. Keep in mind the long scenario, while it is possible, it is still NOT favored by the broader price structure or economic context. This means profit expectations should be LOWER. There is not enough evidence to call this the bottom of Bitcoin. 17K and 14K are still within range. IF 18,500 breaks, (which is FAVORED by structure and context), the bearish momentum should follow through quickly (like the next candle or two). Price targets are the low 17Ks and possibly 14Ks. Risk can be defined from the 20,500 level in this scenario. With the S&P sitting on lows and potential catalysts like NFP on the horizon, it is within reason to be more aggressive on this side. As I remind my followers often, the skill in this game is not “being good at charts”, it is being able to recognize when you are wrong and adjusting to risk quickly and confidently. “Thinking” will only lure you into the herd mentality. This game requires a passive mindset, which requires that you LISTEN to the market. Embracing the random nature of the market should prevent you from operating with any opinions. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.
EIGHTCAP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
36
BITCOIN and VIX. Buy/ Sell signals based on the Volatility IndexThis two chart layout depicts Bitcoin (BTCUSD) at the top and the Volatility Index (VIX) at the bottom. A rather simple correlation analysis between the two assets. As you can immediately realize, VIX can give buy signals on BTC (green circles) when the price is High and sell signals (red circles) when it is low. More specifically we see a clear Higher Lows trend-line and Resistance Zone on VIX. Since Bitcoin's November 2021 market High, every time VIX hit the Higher Lows trend-line, BTC started falling (some days variance), while every time it hit the Resistance Zone, BTC started rising (though rises are rather limited in strength during Bear Cycles). In total we've had 11 such signals since Nov 2021, and only one failed to deliver (May 02 2022). Yesterday VIX gor rejected just below its Resistance Zone and posted a very strong red 1D candle. It remains to be seen if this very strong correlation will continue to hold and provide another excellent signal, at least on the short-term. What do you think? Do you agree with this finding? Will the VIX rejection, indicating lower upcoming volatility, cause a rise on Bitcoin? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
12
BITCOIN The scariest fractal right now.------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yesterday's sudden reversal to Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) strong rise early in the day, just below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) was far from ideal as it closed the daily candle in red. That brings to memory the last time that happened and was the last signal before a massive sell-off. That was on May 04 2022. As you see the price was again rejected just before hitting the 1D MA50, only a few days after it marginally broke above it (April 21) but again failed, just like on September 13. Following the May 04 rejection, the resulting sell-off initially dropped by -36% and by June 18 it completed a -63% fall from the March 28 Top. Such huge decreases have not been uncommon throughout this Bear Cycle (which has been trading within a Bearish Megaphone pattern) and especially since the November 10 All Time High, whose subsequent drop was around -52%. I have replicated the January 22 - June 18 price action (blue) and pasted it on the post June 18 sequence. That fractal that hints to a -61% drop at around $10000. If it follows the Megaphone's first drop of -52%, then it would result to around $12000. Whatever happens, that is indeed a scary fractal, in fact the scariest projection that can be made on BTC right now. It may or may not happen. What matters is to be prepared for both and apply a strategy that utilizes the appropriate risk management. But what's your view on this fractal? Do you think it is realistic? What are your targets for Bitcoin on a 1-2 month horizon? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
43
[09/27] Beast Trading _ Today's Bitcoin Analysis Beast Trading _ Today's Bitcoin Analysis Finally, the boring convergence seems to be over. Eventually, it deviated upward from the convergence pattern, rose slightly, and then rose in the morning with trading volume attached, and now it seems that the wave frame is being taken little by little. Up to 18.1k, it came down to five waves, and it seems that the waves have ended, and the current section after that is important 18.1k - 19.5k = A 19.5k to 18.8k = B (Triangle convergence) It seems that the C wave has been rising since 18.8k. If this ABC wave is a "B wave" in this big picture and the selling pressure is a little severe, and the C wave does not come out short, it is likely to go up to 20.3 to 20.4k. After that, it is expected to fall quite strongly with five waves, and it is likely to break 17.6k in this downward wave and renew its previous low. We recommend that you do not hold a long position or respond briefly, and if there is a rebound up to 20.3k, it is better to enter a short position by looking at the trend change signal on the line!
Short
by BeastTrading_Sehyun
4
BITCOIN The Blueprint to the next Cycle TopThis is Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame and displays a projection both in terms of pricing and timing of its next Cycle modelled out of the previous three using the following attributes: * The Halvings. * Fibonacci extensions from Cycle Top to Bottom to calculate the next Top. * Top-to-Top-to-Bottom-Bottom-to-Halving stats and vice versa. Basically this is an extension and combination of previous studies that we've published here on TradingView. The features of the New Cycle based on the previous ones: - There is a potential Bottom for the current Cycle around $11500 and this is based on a -83% decrease from the $69000 Top. The previous two Cycles made a Bottom at -83% and -86% from their respective Tops. - This Bottom is expected to be on the week of November 07 2022 based on the Top-to-Bottom stat, calculated at 52 weeks (364 days). This is consistent with the previous two Cycles Top-to-Bottom stats at 52 weeks (364 days) and 59 weeks (413 days) respectively. - The Bottom-to-Top range for the next Cycle is calculated at 152 bars/ weeks (1064 days), giving a potential Top on the week of October 06 2025. The previous two Cycles Bottom-to-Top stats have also been 152 weeks (1064 days), while the earlier one 110 weeks (770 days). - That Top of the new Cycle , can potentially be around $200000, calculated on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level of the previous Top and the next potential Bottom. The Top of the previous Cycle was a little over 1.618, while the Tops of the previous two Cycles were around the 2.383 Fib. Having lower tops, i.e. lower returns is consistent with the Theory of Diminishing Returns in time. - The Halving-to-Top ranges at 83 weeks (581 days), while the Top-to-Top at 204 weeks (1428 days) projected after the previous two Cycles. - The price on the date of the Halving can potentially be around $34500. That is calculate at -50% from the top, consistent with the previous three Cycles (-50%, -46% and -60% respectively). - Also the Bottom-to-Bottom stat (calculated at 204 weeks/ 1428 days) gives an estimated Bottom to the next Cycle around the week of October 05 2026. If I forget something, it is all on the chart for you to see and draw your own conclusions. As the title says this is a Blueprint of the next Cycle, a roadmap purely drawn on Bitcoin's historical data at hand. The reality can turn out to be quite different if the fundamentals weigh differently this time but in a market of constantly moving variables, this 'Blueprint' may be a good way to start and do your own research. So how useful do you think this model is? Do you agree with the potential Bottom and Top levels? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoyed this idea! Also share your ideas and charts with the community down below! This is best way to keep it relevant and support me and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Editors' picks
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
108
Where are we? Should we be here? where are we going?No body knows, following the trend and the pattern most people will se say BIG dump right now, but, BUT more realistic way of Bitcoin will be an slow up trend to 22k - 23k zone and then a possible dump to around 12k, after that it will be long side trend with a little ups and downs of course but nothing big until a bullrun that will be next year, I assume. It's a tough position know nothing is clear and everything can change i na matter of seconds but that is what trading is all about :). Now to understand why I think it will go up then down is simply because most of people expect dump around 4. sep and 7. sep but then, BOOM, really fast uptrend of a 19% which wasn't expected at all and I am afraid that same thing will happen again. So guys be patient, don't rush, THINK. See you all in the green zone one day!
by MarinDead
3
BTCUSD 26/9/22' 05:45UTC-4Asset: Bitcoin Hello guys, weekend passed, nothing changed. My idea about market is unchanged and still valid, expecting volatility comin upcoming days, so I guess we find out soon right, if we move lower as I expect or next move will be up and our Idea invalid. Would suggest have stop losses in reasonable area, as ment in previous post. We still positive 2+ % from our entry point. Stay patient, for this reason we gave our estimate 13 days time window to play this out. Happy trading, Joe Based on:
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by cryptocapitaltrading