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[09/27] Beast Trading _ Today's Bitcoin Analysis Beast Trading _ Today's Bitcoin Analysis Finally, the boring convergence seems to be over. Eventually, it deviated upward from the convergence pattern, rose slightly, and then rose in the morning with trading volume attached, and now it seems that the wave frame is being taken little by little. Up to 18.1k, it came down to five waves, and it seems that the waves have ended, and the current section after that is important 18.1k - 19.5k = A 19.5k to 18.8k = B (Triangle convergence) It seems that the C wave has been rising since 18.8k. If this ABC wave is a "B wave" in this big picture and the selling pressure is a little severe, and the C wave does not come out short, it is likely to go up to 20.3 to 20.4k. After that, it is expected to fall quite strongly with five waves, and it is likely to break 17.6k in this downward wave and renew its previous low. We recommend that you do not hold a long position or respond briefly, and if there is a rebound up to 20.3k, it is better to enter a short position by looking at the trend change signal on the line!
Short
by BeastTrading_Sehyun
4
BITCOIN The Blueprint to the next Cycle TopThis is Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame and displays a projection both in terms of pricing and timing of its next Cycle modelled out of the previous three using the following attributes: * The Halvings. * Fibonacci extensions from Cycle Top to Bottom to calculate the next Top. * Top-to-Top-to-Bottom-Bottom-to-Halving stats and vice versa. Basically this is an extension and combination of previous studies that we've published here on TradingView. The features of the New Cycle based on the previous ones: - There is a potential Bottom for the current Cycle around $11500 and this is based on a -83% decrease from the $69000 Top. The previous two Cycles made a Bottom at -83% and -86% from their respective Tops. - This Bottom is expected to be on the week of November 07 2022 based on the Top-to-Bottom stat, calculated at 52 weeks (364 days). This is consistent with the previous two Cycles Top-to-Bottom stats at 52 weeks (364 days) and 59 weeks (413 days) respectively. - The Bottom-to-Top range for the next Cycle is calculated at 152 bars/ weeks (1064 days), giving a potential Top on the week of October 06 2025. The previous two Cycles Bottom-to-Top stats have also been 152 weeks (1064 days), while the earlier one 110 weeks (770 days). - That Top of the new Cycle , can potentially be around $200000, calculated on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level of the previous Top and the next potential Bottom. The Top of the previous Cycle was a little over 1.618, while the Tops of the previous two Cycles were around the 2.383 Fib. Having lower tops, i.e. lower returns is consistent with the Theory of Diminishing Returns in time. - The Halving-to-Top ranges at 83 weeks (581 days), while the Top-to-Top at 204 weeks (1428 days) projected after the previous two Cycles. - The price on the date of the Halving can potentially be around $34500. That is calculate at -50% from the top, consistent with the previous three Cycles (-50%, -46% and -60% respectively). - Also the Bottom-to-Bottom stat (calculated at 204 weeks/ 1428 days) gives an estimated Bottom to the next Cycle around the week of October 05 2026. If I forget something, it is all on the chart for you to see and draw your own conclusions. As the title says this is a Blueprint of the next Cycle, a roadmap purely drawn on Bitcoin's historical data at hand. The reality can turn out to be quite different if the fundamentals weigh differently this time but in a market of constantly moving variables, this 'Blueprint' may be a good way to start and do your own research. So how useful do you think this model is? Do you agree with the potential Bottom and Top levels? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoyed this idea! Also share your ideas and charts with the community down below! This is best way to keep it relevant and support me and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Editors' picks
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
105
Where are we? Should we be here? where are we going?No body knows, following the trend and the pattern most people will se say BIG dump right now, but, BUT more realistic way of Bitcoin will be an slow up trend to 22k - 23k zone and then a possible dump to around 12k, after that it will be long side trend with a little ups and downs of course but nothing big until a bullrun that will be next year, I assume. It's a tough position know nothing is clear and everything can change i na matter of seconds but that is what trading is all about :). Now to understand why I think it will go up then down is simply because most of people expect dump around 4. sep and 7. sep but then, BOOM, really fast uptrend of a 19% which wasn't expected at all and I am afraid that same thing will happen again. So guys be patient, don't rush, THINK. See you all in the green zone one day!
by MarinDead
3
BTCUSD 26/9/22' 05:45UTC-4Asset: Bitcoin Hello guys, weekend passed, nothing changed. My idea about market is unchanged and still valid, expecting volatility comin upcoming days, so I guess we find out soon right, if we move lower as I expect or next move will be up and our Idea invalid. Would suggest have stop losses in reasonable area, as ment in previous post. We still positive 2+ % from our entry point. Stay patient, for this reason we gave our estimate 13 days time window to play this out. Happy trading, Joe Based on:
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by cryptocapitaltrading
Bitcoin: Bears Still In Favor 17K.Since the 19,500 swing trade sell signal (previous article), Bitcoin has offered about a 1K+ profit potential, but barely enough to justify the risk (depends where you placed the stop). Either way, price refuses to break 18K and has even attempted to print a conflicting signal (bullish pin bar) which could have justified an aggressive long. As a swing trader, what is the best choice of action here? It is important to realize that Bitcoin does NOT trade on its own. Since the FOMC meeting over the previous Wednesday, the stock market (S&P) and bond market (10 YR Note) have pushed lows while the Dollar index has made new highs. This economic situation will mount bearish pressure on Bitcoin over time if it continues, even if Bitcoin appears to be going against the trend at the moment (one bullish pin bar hardly means anything). The economic environment is still BEARISH (don’t fight the FED), and the broader technical structure is still BEARISH (lower highs everywhere, resistances respected). While Bitcoin appears to hold the 18K support area, probability continues to favor a bearish break. It’s a matter of catalyst. No matter what any of your favorite fake gurus tell you, focus on the market facts, NOT people’s opinions or emotional reactions (your magical RSI will not help you here). Keep in mind good risk management is the recipe for success in this game, not big wins. As far as swing trades, while a buy signal may develop around the 18,500 to 19,500 area over the coming week, (fake gurus will scream double bottom), the potential for any sustainable rallies is LOW. If you go long, the 21K AREA is a reasonable expectation (not 40K). Short squeezes can happen, but do not confuse this for a broader trend reversal. The short side is still the right side (for now). The thing is, you do not want to get caught short from a bad price (the low). A dramatic short squeeze can be very costly. I called a short from 19,500 which is technically still in play. The NEXT short signal would be another momentum continuation pattern upon the break of 18,500. Risk can be defined from the 20,500 level. 2K points of risk means you need to make AT LEAST 2K points or more to justify the risk. The more conservative scenario would be to WAIT for a sell signal to appear upon the test of the 21 to 22K area resistance. This can take a week to develop. Probability and reward/risk are better around relevant resistance levels. I just want to mention that for weeks I have been calling for the 17K price target. The market refuses to break. I can’t tell the market what to do nor do I think I know more than the market. While probability still favors this forecast, it does not mean that the market will deliver the outcome. Markets are highly RANDOM and unless you have inside information, there is no way to forecast longer time horizons accurately (even though many gurus make these claims). When trade signals appear, it does not mean you have to assume risk. A signal needs to be evaluated carefully. Where is it appearing? Is it with or against the broader trend and economic context? Most importantly what will negate the signal and call for an adjustment? What are the chances the momentum will continue and how far is a reasonable profit target? These questions need to be answered BEFORE you take a position. Sometimes the profit potential barely justifies the risk and the best choice is to stay out. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.
EIGHTCAP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
36
BITCOIN, Major Diamond-Bottom To Pump On $21,000 USDT Target!Hello Community, Welcome to this analysis about Bitcoin on the 4-hour timeframe perspective. Bitcoin since holding above the $18,400 USDT level is building an interesting pattern that can lead to unfolding potentials down the line. When looking at my chart we can watch there Bitcoin is now developing a worthwhile Diamond-Bottom-Formation above the $18,400 USDT level. Such a formation has the solid ability to convert into a paramount bottom with the resulting pump emerging out of it. This means when Bitcoin finally managed to complete the formation with the breakout above the upper-right boundary of the formation as seen in my chart it will be the setup for the next steps to determine Bitcoin's further volatility acceleration. Once Bitcoin is above the red line the continued pump will have the increased likelihood possibility of finally reaching out further targets determined by the main target at $21,000 USDT as marked in my chart. Thank you for the support and all the best! Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
by VincePrince
3
BITCOIN The S&P tests MA200. Crucial week ahead for BTC.Simple 1W chart. Every time the S&P500 index (SPX) hit and broke above or (nearly) bounced on its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), Bitcoin has formed a bottom and started along with the S&P rally phases. This week the S&P500 will have an opportunity for such a test. Will it find Support and cause Bitcoin to bottom finally and rally? Or is this time different? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoyed this idea! Also share your ideas and charts with the community down below! This is best way to keep it relevant and support me and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
8
Next downward drop within 48hours!Hi Traders, If you are still in spot of positions/long trades its time to consider exiting those if not already done so. This Monday/week i shaping up both technically and macroeconomically to be a volatile day/week. I expect prices to remain some what as they are IF not slightly higher (BTC to 20.3k possibly as a trap) before getting sent below 17k within 48hours. There is no bullish hope to hold on to so please don't be delusional... investors have only 'more pain' as the FED noted to look forward to - this reality will be playing out shortly. BTC is showing extreme weakness right now, the likes of which when institutional traders as dropping their risky trades in favour of holding cash. Also similar price action as prior big breaks lower have shown. Some things to note; -XRP pumping without any reason, hugely bearish signal that whales are squeezing the final $ they can from reality in order to dump the market/create more bagholders. - FED acknowledged more rate increases to come ie NO HOPE yet. - September STILL has 1 week left, plenty of time to crash the market and stay on historical trend of a heavy red month - Russia looks likely to spook the market more with aggression towards Ukraine (maybe announcing war officially/increasing fighting) given the mobilisation laws. - Bonds in disarray/Japan in big economic trouble maybe dumping US bonds... and the list goes on. SO WHAT TO DO Personally I am waiting for the next 12hours to play out as ASIA prepares to open markets, i will be adding to/making new short positions across many coins that have showed strength on late. BNB/XRP/ATOM some noteworthy ones but theres plenty if you simply search, and of course BTC/ETH are good shorts also considering theres a-lot of room downward to go especially for ETH. Get some low/mid range level shorts in over the coming 12hours are get ready to hold those for the coming week as selling ramps up. DO NOT CLOSE EARLY BTC - looking to see 16k touched initially but that is not likely to hold very long if at all, 14/15k is the first pause area and then 12k. SO please do not close shorts early on the first sign on a green candle... Goodluck, Asset mastery
Short
by AssetMasteryandInvesting
2
BITCOIN In DANGER if this level breaks. Can this save the day?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within a Falling Wedge pattern ever since the August 15 top. This analysis is on the 1D time-frame but we do incorporate the 4H MA50 (green trend-line) and the 4H MA200 (grey trend-line) to help us understand critical Resistance and break-out level. ** The Falling Wedge and the importance of the 4H MA50 ** What stands out here is that while Bitcoin is on Lower Lows (Falling Wedge), the 1D RSI has been on Higher Lows, showcasing a Bullish Divergence. However that is not enough on its own to start a rebound to the top of the Wedge. What is needed is a candle closing above the 4H MA50. We haven't had one since September 12, which was the previous High of the Wedge. Even before that, since August 15, we see that the candle never closed above the 4H MA50 and only when it did once (Sep 09), did the price rebound. As a result we should consider a closing above the 4H MA50 as a bullish break-out signal targeting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Falling Wedge, on the short-term term only. We can derive further confirmation if the 1D MACD makes a Bullish Cross again (last did on Sep 09, exactly when the rebound took place). ** The danger of breaking a Triple Support cluster ** The danger for BTC lies on the potential 1W MA300 (red trend-line) test. As long as the 4H MA50 keeps rejecting a break-out, the price should continue trading lower on the Lower Lows trend-line. Eventually that can test the 1W MA300 on the first week of October. Interestingly enough, this is where the current Support level is (17600), formed by the June 18 Low. If this Triple Support level breaks and the week closes below it, an enormous sell-off can taken place. During this 2021/22 Bear Cycle, it has been common for Bitcoin to fall within -45.50% and 55.50%, as the following chart suggests: Assuming that the August 15 High was the start of such a sell-off, then a -45.50% move can be completed around 14000 while a -55.50% drop can be completed at around 11500. What probabilities would you give to see those targets? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoyed this idea! Also share your ideas and charts with the community down below! This is best way to keep it relevant and support me and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 👇⬇🔽 👇⬇🔽 👇⬇🔽 👇⬇🔽 👇⬇🔽 👇⬇🔽 👇⬇🔽
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
14
BITCOIN Do we have a clear recovery pattern based on pastCycles?Just as we are waiting for today's Fed Rate Decision, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) remains low, in fact it is the closest it has been to June's Low with the 1W MA300 (bold red trend-line) approaching from below. Is this the last selling before a bottom is formed. One way to look at it is by analyzing Bitcoin's past Bear Cycles. On this analysis we will compare the structure of the current (2021/22) Cycle to the previous two, 2018/19 and 2014/15. Let's look at the similarities: * All patterns have hit the 1.5 - 1.618 Fibonacci Zone following their most aggressive sell-off of the Cycle. The 2018/19 Cycle recovered after making a 2nd low and pull-back on a W-shaped pattern, while the 2014/15 had two pull-backs on an M-shaped recovery. * No (weekly) candle closed below the 1W MA300. * All RSI sequences formed a Falling Wedge pattern and when it broke to the upside (for 2018/19 and 2014/15), it signaled the start of the new Bull Cycle. For 2021/22, it broke upwards this month. * The 2018/19 and 2014/15 MACD sequences formed the final Bullish Cross (green arrow) after bouncing on the -0.20 level, which is where the MACD is currently at. Also their red histograms where on an Ascending (Higher Lows) pattern. The first green bars after that, signaled the start of the Bull Cycle. As you may have noticed, we are using the Fibonacci MAs on these charts, painting a fairly clear picture of the steps the price took within the Cycles. So far, BTC's current Cycle is extremely consistent with the past two, especially with the 2014/15 one. If yet another Cycle gets completed by repeating this, then we are either at the very low and the start of a rally is imminent on a W-shaped recovery, or we will bounce once more and pull-back to test the 1W MA300 towards the end of the year, before starting the new Bull, on an M-shaped recovery. Which of the two do you think is going to be? Or do you expect to close below the 1W MA300 and invalidate this historic model? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
80
BTCUSD 21/9/22' 02:30UTC-4Asset: Bitcoin Hello guys, looks like it was still about right time to jump in at moment of yesterday post. Everyone who decided jump in,grats but I would still suggest being carefull and pateint. There is still high chance of revisiting E to T1 area and with it another opportunity to entry around suggested Targets above Equilibrium. After we may experience a quick decline. For now, we are in ideal scenario with our Short trade, sitting around 3,5% in profit from our ideal entry. To protect capital I would suggest Stop Loss in Break Even area, just enought to not press it pre-maturely in scenario of possible shakeout. Expecting big volatility around 8am, be carefull. Happy trading, Joe Yesterday idea
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by cryptocapitaltrading
Bitcoin: analysis for September 20The market is in the uptrend on the Daily timeframe. The market reached the support level on September 19 and the bullish candle was formed. That formed the pullback buying opportunity. The first target in the upward movement is the resistance level formed on September 11 – 13 with the borders of $22,355 – $22,780. In case of successful development of the trend, a more distant target will be on the highs of August 12 – 15, where the next resistance is located with the borders of $24,500 – $25,210. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe. The borders of this support are $18,395 – $18,777.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JIexa1701