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BITCOIN Bottom completed. Bull Flag about to start the 30k rallyBitcoin (BTCUSD) is having a red week so far (1W time-frame) following last week's rebound. The worse than expected CPI is leading this pull-back fundamentally. Technically though, the price remains both above the Support provided by the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) and the Channel Down that started after the mid-August High. As long as no further Low is made, this Channel can be technically considered a Bull Flag, and is consistent with both prior Cycle bottom sequences. ** Past Cycles bottom formation ** As you see on this chart, the pattern that emerged after each prior Cycle bottom, was this Bull Flag. The price basically started to break above the Flag when a 1W MA50/ 1W MA100 Bearish Cross (1W MA50 in the blue trend-line crossing below the 1W MA100 in the green trend-line). Once the 1W MA50 break, the price never looked back and the parabolic rally of the new Bull Cycle took off. The 1D MA200 (black trend-line) is the first level of Resistance on the medium-term and is currently around 29800. The importance of this is high because on those past Cycles, every time the 1D MA200 crossed below the 1W MA100 to form a Bearish Cross, the Cycle's Bottom was priced. ** The Fibonacci levels as Targets ** Back to the 1W MA50, once it broke, the price reached the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which was just above the 1W MA100, very quickly in fact in a matter of 3 weeks. The next Target on the medium-term (and Resistance) for both prior Cycles, was the 0.786 Fibonacci. In 2016 it was hit in 32 weeks after the 0.5 while in 2019 in just 6 (but that was a rapid growth based on, among others, the Libra fundamentals). ** What's next? ** All the above suggest that if the same cyclical pattern continues to play out, Bitcoin should complete the Bull Flag now and start rising as the 1W MA50/100 Bearish Cross has been formed. A realistic technically target towards the end of the year would be the 0.5 Fib at $33900, where by that time it can make contact with the 1W MA50 potentially. We can then expect a 0.786 Fib test at just above $49000 by Q2 2023. All this calculated as the average projection of the past 2 Cycles. Do you agree that this Bull Flag, following the MA50/100 Cross is about to start a rally to test the August High and then $33900 before the year is over? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
32
btceur bull market till May 2022 at 15000 on 10 week cyclesIf bitcoin will not break 65000 €uro ca $75000 in December then we are in bull market and following 5 cycles in 10 week periods till May 2022 will be selling cycles, Price will slowly fall up to 15000. Green arrows are the cycles when buying is profitable (except the unpredictable fluctuation in March 2021 the COVID panic month). Red are the 10 week periods when selling shorting is profitable Whole is n big parallel channel
by viparmenia
5
BITCOIN The 3D cheat-sheet approaching a major Bull break-out!This is an analysis of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the alternative but highly informative 3D time-frame where we can claim that its cyclical behavior is most accurately displayed. As always, the MA50 is shown with the blue trend-line, while the MA200 with the orange trend-line). ** Bear Cycles & the Death Cross ** First let's start with the Bear Cycles. As you see, when the 3D MA50 crosses below the 3D MA200 and forms the popular Death Cross pattern, the market tends to give the last warning of a huge sell-off. On all Cycles, that was the last drop before the Cycle forms its market bottom. ** Accumulation and MA50 break-out ** Then on a Higher Lows trend-line as Support and the MA50 as Resistance, the market enters its Accumulation Phase (blue Triangle pattern), until the MA50 breaks and it officially starts rising on the new Bull Cycle. At the moment, with the MA50 at 25500 and declining rapidly, BTC is at the closest it has been to it since May 04. On top of that, the 3D RSI just broke above its Bear Cycle Lower Highs trend-line, just like it did on January 04 2019. ** Parabolic Rally above the MA200 ** So what now? Well if the price breaks above the MA50, chances are that Bitcoin will start rising (not necessarily as aggressively as in April - June 2019, which was based on outside factors as well), assuming that the macro-economic conditions don't get worse. Then, a new break above the 3D MA200 will most likely place BTC on the infamous Parabolic Rally course of the Bull Cycle. Notice how in the previous two Cycles, when the price broke above the MA200 and the Golden Cross was formed (MA50 crossing over MA200), the price used the MA200 as the Support of the Parabolic Rally (excluding of course the COVID crash in March 2020, which is a once in a life-time event). So what do you think about those 3D patterns and conditions? Does it offer a comprehensive road-map of this new Cycle and if yes, are you expecting a strong rally when the MA50 breaks? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
55
BITCOIN Might Pump on Eased Inflation (CPI)CPI is out in a few hours and an eased inflation is expected. A good indication is this: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Center for Microeconomic Data : Inflation Expectations Continue Decline at the Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Horizons Median one- and three-year-ahead inflation expectations both posted steep declines in August, from 6.2 percent and 3.2 percent in July to 5.7 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively. Median five-year-ahead inflation expectations, which have been elicited in the monthly SCE core survey on an ad-hoc basis since the beginning of this year and were first published in July, also declined to 2.0 percent from 2.3 percent. Expectations about year-ahead price increases for gas also continued to decline, with households now expecting gas prices to be roughly unchanged a year from now. Note: The newly released series for median five-year-ahead inflation expectations is now included as the last tab in the “Chart Data” Excel file provided under the downloads drop-down menu. For more details: Press Release: Inflation and Home Price Expectations Decline Further HOW ABOUT NEGATIVE INFLATION? Well there needs to be balance. A slightly eased inflation is good news, a more than anticipated eased inflation is a great news but a VERY decreased inflation is the worst kind of news as it could signify Recession. So, let's be careful as always , personally I am bullish to 23200 (resistance) and if price can break back into the channel then 25200. Check my chart for all key levels. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by FX_Professor
5
Un-finished business to the upside. This price action to me says the market is pricing in lower value for bitcoin. Now that doesn't mean it should just fall to it inception price. I have 23200 for Bitcoin to make another leg lower. Essentially in my own terms balancing the market for the time being. Now ive had other speculations for upside potential for the coin one being 26k but it fell just short. This tells me whatever institutions or company's or what have you, that are engineering price to a premium, so they can liquidate their longs at a better "price", these individuals are settling for less then what they really want. In lamest terms the liquidation of #bitcoin is happening and its happening quicker than what they thought. If we are to make it to 23200 and we soar right through ill look to re calculate for further upside potential. For now I see it going there(23200) then to 14460. Cheers.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Alexander50plus
BITCOIN Testing the most important long-term Resistance levels!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is currently on a strong +17% four day rally, the strongest since July 29. By doing so, it is about to test the important short-term Resistance of 22000, formed off the August 24 High. There is however a trend-line and cluster of critical Resistance levels on the long-term as well that the price is about to hit, and outweigh by far the short-term technicals. ** The ATH trend-line and Bullish - Bearish extremes ** That is the Lower Highs trend-line that started on the November 10 2021 All Time High (ATH). Basically this is the Lower Highs trend-line of the Channel Down pattern (log scale) that has been dominating the price action for most of the past 10 months. As you see on this 1D chart, the price has broken outside of this Channel Down twice these past 10 months. Once on March 22 where it made a Bullish Extreme but still was contained below the 1.382 Fibonacci extension and once on June 18 where it made a Bearish extreme but still was contained above the -0.382 Fibonacci extension. ** The 1D MA100 ** The last time BTC attempted a break above the ATH trend-line was on the August 15 High where it wasn't just rejected on the top of the Channel Down but also on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). Excluding the Bullish Extreme, the price has been trading below the 1D MA100 since December 03 2021 with three clear rejections on it. At the moment, the 1D MA100 is trading exactly on the ATH trend-line and has been doing so since the August 15 rejection. It is obvious that at the moment, this is the most important Resistance Zone that BTC is facing. A break and close above it though doesn't 'guarantee' the end of the long-term Bearish Trend as that took place when it broke on March 22 but was still rejected on the 1.382 Fib ext. As you realize, only a break above the 1.382 Fib turns the odd in favor of a long-term Bullish reversal and can sustain a rally invalidating bearish bias of March 29 - April 05. On a different occasion, the 10 month Channel Down will continue to dictate the trend. But what do you think is going to happen? Will a close above the ATH line and the 1D MA100 accumulate enough buyers to finally push above the 1.382 tolerance level and into a new Bull rally or we will get again rejected and stay within the long-term Channel Down? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
4
Bitcoin: 17K To 25K Test?Short squeeze off the 18Ks back to 21K quickly. What does this mean in terms of the bigger picture trend and momentum? Before you listen to the novices calling for 50K, it is important to objectively consider this shift in terms of price structure within the context of the economic environment. First, before you ask: "Isn't there a way to foresee such moves?". Answer: No. Markets are highly random which means there is no way to forecast them with any degree of accuracy.. While I have been writing about bearish signals and anticipating a test of 17K in most of my recent articles, I have been warning followers of the RISK and what can go wrong when selling into potential support areas, even when the overall structure favored a support break. Accounting for RISK is what prepares you for the possibility of such a short squeeze, whether it unfolds or not. Instead of asking "why?" you should only be asking "where?" in these situations and adjusting your outlook to the new piece of information. Here is what I consider: The broader structure (lower highs and lower lows) is still generally bearish over the long term. No major resistance has been taken out yet (25K). If you consider the economic context: trends in bond yields and the Dollar are still poised to continue higher which mounts bearish pressure on everything. This means any rally attempts in the stock market or Bitcoin (there is a correlation) have LITTLE potential or sustainability. That's the broader view. The short term view (one month out): The large green candle off of the 18K area has taken out a minor resistance at 20,500. This means the recent bearish movement off of the 25K peak is no longer in play. Momentum (NOT to be confused with the broader trend) may be bullish. Such a shift can lead price REASONABLY back into the 23 to 25K AREA RESISTANCE. IF this resistance is cleared, then 28K becomes a possibility. This is the same story for the S&P (correlation). Bear market rallies can happen and it is very important to recognize their limited potential and risks and not get carried away with hype. IF Bitcoin produces a new sell signal somewhere between 23 and 25K, it would still offer a short swing trade opportunity with a more favorable probability. Again that is "IF". On the other side of that, IF a bullish momentum continuation pattern appears somewhere between 20 and 21K that can offer an aggressive counter trend swing trade to the long side. The short idea is on the side of the broader trend and is still more favorable, while the long idea can help to capitalize on a bear market rally of limited duration. Was I wrong about the 17K test? The market made an attempt and never got back to 17K. It was a potential scenario that was possible but the market does not agree with. I don't pretend to know more than the market like every one else. I respect it and adjust. Now I look for a test of the 23 to 25K resistance area and see how price behaves IF it gets there. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.
EIGHTCAP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
19