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Bitcoin-btcusd-btc

Bitcoin: 17K To 25K Test?Short squeeze off the 18Ks back to 21K quickly. What does this mean in terms of the bigger picture trend and momentum? Before you listen to the novices calling for 50K, it is important to objectively consider this shift in terms of price structure within the context of the economic environment. First, before you ask: "Isn't there a way to foresee such moves?". Answer: No. Markets are highly random which means there is no way to forecast them with any degree of accuracy.. While I have been writing about bearish signals and anticipating a test of 17K in most of my recent articles, I have been warning followers of the RISK and what can go wrong when selling into potential support areas, even when the overall structure favored a support break. Accounting for RISK is what prepares you for the possibility of such a short squeeze, whether it unfolds or not. Instead of asking "why?" you should only be asking "where?" in these situations and adjusting your outlook to the new piece of information. Here is what I consider: The broader structure (lower highs and lower lows) is still generally bearish over the long term. No major resistance has been taken out yet (25K). If you consider the economic context: trends in bond yields and the Dollar are still poised to continue higher which mounts bearish pressure on everything. This means any rally attempts in the stock market or Bitcoin (there is a correlation) have LITTLE potential or sustainability. That's the broader view. The short term view (one month out): The large green candle off of the 18K area has taken out a minor resistance at 20,500. This means the recent bearish movement off of the 25K peak is no longer in play. Momentum (NOT to be confused with the broader trend) may be bullish. Such a shift can lead price REASONABLY back into the 23 to 25K AREA RESISTANCE. IF this resistance is cleared, then 28K becomes a possibility. This is the same story for the S&P (correlation). Bear market rallies can happen and it is very important to recognize their limited potential and risks and not get carried away with hype. IF Bitcoin produces a new sell signal somewhere between 23 and 25K, it would still offer a short swing trade opportunity with a more favorable probability. Again that is "IF". On the other side of that, IF a bullish momentum continuation pattern appears somewhere between 20 and 21K that can offer an aggressive counter trend swing trade to the long side. The short idea is on the side of the broader trend and is still more favorable, while the long idea can help to capitalize on a bear market rally of limited duration. Was I wrong about the 17K test? The market made an attempt and never got back to 17K. It was a potential scenario that was possible but the market does not agree with. I don't pretend to know more than the market like every one else. I respect it and adjust. Now I look for a test of the 23 to 25K resistance area and see how price behaves IF it gets there. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.
EIGHTCAP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
19
ETHEREUM - FOLLOW UP OR HUGE BULL TRAP ?We can see very nice move from oversold BTC. But. Seems to be huge short squeeze towards previous support (21 k) and trend line from April. So - we can see some move down and consolidation during which ETH and alts will follow up strongly. OR It's another move to mark tops and range bound for BTC during which (till the end of september or so imo) BTC will be forming bottom around 18.5 k while ETH will head towards range low (with keeping higher low imo) and alts will bleed much more heading towards their new lows. 1730 is crucial for ETH imo. If we can break it up then.. 1830 and even more should be next. But if we reject it here then correction will be continued imo. Last chance for bulls in bear/bull case will be correction towards 1570, keeping it and printing nice ascending triangle as accumulation pattern.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDShort
by mess_on_a_mission
3
BITCOIN The Double Bottom effect on Cycles. Huge rally starting?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) made a Low two days ago and today we are seeing a strong rebound on the biggest 1D candle (so far) since July 27. Based on the Cyclical Double-Bottom Effect, we can argue that this low is a hit on the Double Bottom zone of the June 18 market Bottom. What is that effect? Well it appears to be not just a Theory but a pragmatic phenomenon that has been seen on every Cycle bottom on Bitcoin's past three Cycles. On this 1D chart, you can see the current Cycle on top of the previous ones for a more effective illustration of the Double-Bottom effect. The range of the Double-Bottom is the green zone. Cycle 1 is displayed with the black trend-line making the 2011 Double Bottom, Cycle 2 with the blue trend-line making the 2015 Double Bottom and Cycle 3 in the orange trend-line making the 2019 Double Bottom. As it is shown, the Double Bottoms are fairly structured in the same way on each of the past Cycles and straight after each one was formed, a strong rally followed. The past cycles have been adapted in order to fit the Green Range, which is formulated by the current Cycle. Still, the bullish trend following each Double Bottom is obvious. This study isn't designed to show the time-length, but rather the bullish move that follows. You can view each Double Bottom plotted on top of each other, with the current Cycle being the green trend-line, in the chart below: So what do you think? Has the market double bottomed and if so, based on the above, are we about to witness a strong multi-month rally as the new Bull Cycle is starting? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
27
Seems like a big drop. And i'm okay with it.Its time. Let's get it over with. I've accepted it. Break a little more greed and lets move on. RSI looks like it has another good drop, volume is low. Dunno where to tho, I can't imagine breaking 10k. But who knows. Macro is kind of in control right now. At least in my opinion No confidence with $eth lookin like either a huge success or giant mess. Has a favorable chart. But still nothing to write home about. I'm in both, averaging in for awhile now...for transparency. Hope everyone is well, To you and your families!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Rigs
BITCOIN extends its bearish trend. Our options on the short-termBitcoin (BTCUSD) had yet another strong 4H red candle, consistent to the past two hard selling sequences since the August 15 High. Today's post is an extension to the short-term analysis we made a few days back. ** The selling patterns ** As mentioned, the time-frame here is the 4H (4hours). As you see, since the price broke above the former Triangle, it failed to stay above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and eventually yesterday made that strong 4H sell-off. The common characteristic with the previous two selling patterns that were within the Triangle, is that it did so when the price broke above the Higher Lows trend-line (bold dotted lines) that was supporting until then. ** Fibonacci targets ** The target yesterday was once again the 1.618 Fibonacci extension as with the previous two sequences. If a new Higher Lows trend-line emerges, then in line with the previous sequences, we should be expecting an upwards consolidation that could reach the 1.236 Fib. ** The former Lower Highs trend-line supporting ** What's really interesting is that since BTC broke above the former Triangle, its Lower Highs trend-line has been tested twice (including yesterday) and held. Can that turn into a Support and provide a new trend? Well this is the short-term and we have to keep looking into it and the every-day changes on indicators continuously. If that former Lower Highs line breaks, expect another flash crash, this time to test the ultimate Support level of the 1W MA300 (yellow trend-line). ** Neutral zone, Break-out Buy and a very consistent RSI ** We consider the range within the 4H MA50 and the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) as neutral space, thus a 'no-trade zone'. On the other hand, consider buying if the price closes above the MA100 and target the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). Among the fuss, just check how well-structured the 4H RSI has been, with a clear Higher Lows line providing a solid buy entry and a Resistance providing a sell. So do you think Bitcoin is up for yet another Higher Lows consolidation until it breaks downwards again or an MA100 break will save the day? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
5
BITCOIN Bullish Cross on MACD similar to the 2018/19 bottomBitcoin (BTCUSD) is about to form a Bullish Cross on the MACD (1D time-frame) as it trades below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). The last time it did a similar formation on those levels while Bitcoin was recovering from a market low was on February 07 2019, during the December 2018 - March 2019 Cycle Bottom formation. What followed was an instant price rebound which around 10 days it broke above both the 1D MA50 and 1D MA100 and a little after 2 weeks it tested the Bottom Fractal's Resistance. Once BTC broke above that Resistance it instantly broke above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) also and the Q2 2019 rally, the first of the previous Bull Cycle was already well underway. At the moment it appears that we are exactly on that kick-start point, supported on the 12° angle Higher Lows trend-line, with the Supertrend indicator flashing red. Do you think that this emerging MACD Bullish Cross, can repeat the post February 2019 sequence? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
29
Bitcoin: Another Sell Signal?Another minor lower high established around the 20,500 area but during a holiday period where price is likely to be very indecisive. With that, the bearish price action in the S&P and new highs on the Dollar are still facilitating an environment that favors LOWER prices over the coming week or two. As I have been writing for WEEKS, the bearish argument for the markets in general is CLEAR and has not changed. This means expect LESS from long signals and more from short signals. Until this context changes, expecting Bitcoin to rally in an economic environment that is not helpful for highly speculative assets is nothing more than irrational hope. In case you haven't figured it out yet, hope does not pay the bills. For those interested in shorting Bitcoin (I'm still not shorting it), a momentum continuation sell signal will be in play upon the break of 19,500 (swing trade idea). The risk can be measured from the 20,500 to 21,000 AREA. Keep in mind, 17K is the profit potential which in itself does not offer the most attractive reward/risk. Taking a momentum continuation signal is aggressive because often these occur at levels that are less attractive. To manage a trade like this, the idea is to give the market a chance to break 17K while at the same time going into this expecting to be wrong. Yes it is counter intuitive but this defensive mindset compensates for assuming risk at much lower probability levels. With this in mind, it would be wise to take a partial profit off at 17K IF the market offers such an opportunity. IF bearish momentum follows through, and 17K is cleared, then 14K becomes the next support and area to take profits. Again this is NOT a certainty, only a potential scenario that carries favor with the price structure and environment. Markets are highly random, which means they cannot be forecast accurately over long time horizons. If you believe otherwise, or worse, believe others who claim otherwise, then you will be misled by an opinion. Having an opinion implies you know more than the the market. Unless you have inside information, by thinking this way, it is almost certain that the market will empty your account. Respect the market, it is ALWAYS right. The best we can do is generate multiple short term scenarios that are based on technical information, while accounting for external factors that carry a lot of weight (like interest rates). This is how I assign probabilities and can make more objective choices (and NOT rely on HOPE). Assigning probabilities means you are preparing for the possibility of being right AND wrong. Knowing how to manage RISK (being wrong) is what leads to a better outcome for your account. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful. (Tomorrow is a U.S. holiday, stock market is closed and I will not be conducting any streams).
EIGHTCAP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
19
BITCOIN Broke above the Triangle. Short-term set-ups to considerBitcoin (BTCUSD) broke above the August Triangle but still got rejected on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This leaves us, on the short-term at least, inside neutral ground and it would be best to consider the following break-out set-ups for short-term trading. Even in the event of a break above the 4H MA50, we still have to consider the important Resistance of the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), which rejected the price on August 18 and practically caused the first important sell-off since June. As a result, we consider the space between the 4H MA50 and the 4H MA100 as a no-trade zone. A break above the 4H MA100, would be a bullish break-out signal, targeting the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). On the other hand, a break below the Lower Lows trend-line of the former Triangle, would be a bearish break-out signal targeting the -0.5 Fibonacci extension. Notice how so far the former Lower Highs of the Triangle stopped the September 02 sell candle and turned the price action sideways on a Higher Lows trend-line (black dots) similar to August 20 - 26. At the same time, the 4H RSI has been supported on Higher Lows but rejected on a horizontal Resistance, forming an Ascending Triangle. Which short-term set-up do you think is more likely to prevail? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
5