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BITCOIN Cyclical 1D MA200 model shows bottom & bullish break-outBitcoin (BTCUSD) tends to have a constant cyclical behavior, repeating certain aspects over and over again during each Cycle. The model that I will quickly analyze on today's post is no different and it involves the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). ** Similar dips and break-out durations ** On this 1W time-frame, you can see that during the past two Cycles, the price dipped -65% (Jan 12 2015) and -63% (December 10 2018) after the last rejection on the 1D MA200, before making the Bottom of the Bear Cycle. Also, the times from the rejections until the price broke again above the 1D MA200 are comparable, as it respectively took 33 weeks (231 days) to break above it on June 29 2015 and 36 weeks (252 days) on the April 01 2019 1W candle. As you see, those are roughly identical numbers and continue to hold during the current Cycle as well, as the drop from the last 1D MA200 rejection (March 28 2022 candle) to the June 13 2022 Low, has also been -63%, making it a bottom according to the model. If this process is fulfilled, then the price will break above the 1D MA200 again by the week of December 05 2022 the latest. ** Williams Alligator showing the Bottom is in ** An additional indicator that brings value to this model, is the Williams Alligator used on a 3W time-frame here. As shown during the past two Cycles, the market Bottom was made right when the green trend-line (lips) crossed below the blue trend-line (jaw). Similarly when the green trend-line crossed back above the blue, BTC had already started rising into the new Bull Cycle and that was an indication that the first rally of the Cycle made its top. So do you think that this model will be repeated once more, meaning that the market has already bottomed and Bitcoin will break above the 1D MA200 by the week of December 05 2022 the latest? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! P.S. Because the chart has the added element of the Williams Alligator plotted and pinned to scale Z, it is not constant and may appear distorted based on your screen's/ browser dimensions. The original looks like this below, so if yours doesn't, adjust the vertical/ horizontal axis in order to make it look like this and better understand what is illustrated: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
20
BITCOIN 1W MA50/100 Cross! No better time to buy than now!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) saw a strong pull-back last week after it failed to break above its 1D MA100 and got rejected. We've already addressed that but what we do need to update you on is the fact that the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is crossing below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). This is technically a Bearish Cross but as the chart shows, during the previous two Bear Cycles, it has always been a signal that the price has formed its Cycle low and that BTC was inside the Accumulation Zone leading to the new Bull Cycle. It is evident that the current price action is very similar to those of February 2019 and April 2015 where BTC made its 1W MA50/100 Bearish Cross following a pull-back. With the 1W MA300 supporting, we may be closer to a 2015 type price action than 2019. In any case, there is another important set of indicators showing that the bottom is in. First the 1W LMACD making a Bullish Cross. Every time it made this formation after touching the -0.20 level, BTC was well inside the Accumulation Zone of the new Bull Cycle. Secondly, the RSI on the 1M time-frame hit and is rebounding on the historic Lower Lows trend-line (Support). Every time this happened the Cycle bottom was in and when the RSI broke above its MA (yellow trend-line), a new rally (first of the Bull Cycle) started above the 1W MA50. Do you agree that this indicator combo is enough evidence that the time to buy is now? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
25
BTCUSD Miner Capitulation ended! Best Buy but eyes on the USD.Two days ago the Hash Ribbon on the well-known indicator flashed a buy signal, technically ending the Miner Capitulation! What does this mean for Bitcoin (BTCUSD)? Well historically, Miner Capitulation periods have occurred on absolute market bottoms (or lows during uptrends), providing the most attractive buy entries. The 'blue' buy signal on this indicator practically marks the end of this period, which gives the most optimal entry for a long-term investor. With the price being within the Buy Zone that comes all the way from the previous Bear Cycle bottom, still on Higher Lows, continuing to imitate the December - March 2019 bottom formation process, we may be in a spot similar to Jan 12 2019, when the price broke below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) after having marginally broken above it previously, stayed below for 2-3 weeks but when it recovered it again, it didn't break it for months, starting the first rally into the new Bull Cycle. BTC is again currently below the 1D MA50 after trading above it for the majority of August. A break above it again, could be the last we see for months, initiating the new rally. The only objection we have against this pattern getting repeated, is the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) displayed by the green trend-line, which has been rising aggressively since mid August and is something that isn't consistent with Bitcoin rallies. Technically, BTC doesn't rise when the USD rises as well. Check the recent history where all major bottoms (Dec 2019 and March 2020) have coincided with the USD trading at least sideways. Do you think however that the Miners Capitulation ending can provide a boost strong enough on its own regardless of the rising USD? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
12
BTCUSDT A quick and thorny way of growth BTC price to $180-230kToday, you have two fractals with a positive scenario at the base. A quick scenario - growth from the current BTCUSDT price to $180,000 by the end of May 2023. Thorny way - predicts a protracted consolidation of the Bitcoin price in the range of $20,000-26,000 until May 2023. And only after that, long-term growth can begin with the goal of $230,000 by June 2025. In both scenarios, the critical point is the $19800 level. If the BTCUSD price fixing below this level, then the next strong support is far from below - in the area of $12,000 per BTC _______________________________ Since 2016 , we have been analyzing and trading the cryptocurrency market. We transform our knowledge, trading moods and experience into ideas. Each "like under the idea" boosts the level of our happiness by 0.05%. If we help you to be calmer and richer — help us to be happier :)
by P_S_trade
35
Bitcoin: Wrong Retrace For Long.The 24K resistance AREA is NOW established as a LOWER HIGH. I wrote about this scenario specifically in my previous article and described what the short setup would look like. Are you short? Here are some important considerations for the coming week. If you are short from the 23,500 level, by now it would be wise to take a partial profit. I also wrote about this specifically in my previous article in regards to the 20K whole number support AREA. 20K is a key level and buying activity had a greater potential to appear, and it has. Is the current price a good place for a new swing trade long? Not for a swing trade. Now that 24K is a lower high, a lower low is more likely to follow in the coming week or two. A lower low can see price revisit the 17K area or possibly the 14K support which I have been talking about for WEEKS. For smaller time frame traders, a retrace back into the 23Ks is within reason and can offer some small bite opportunities but expectations need to be MINIMIZED. If you love exaggerated stories and messages of hope about Bitcoin going back to 40K, there is plenty of misinformation available on the internet to stimulate your greed and fear. As long as price trades below the 24K resistance AREA, BEARS remain in control. Based on the current price structure and economic context, LOWER prices are likely to follow. There's no HOPE here, only objective analysis. Counter trend trades need to be managed very carefully in terms of profit expectations because the potential is much smaller relative to the short side at this time. Missed the short entry? The next best thing to do is WAIT for a retrace into the 23Ks followed by a setup OR wait for a momentum continuation pattern. What can the continuation pattern look like? At the moment, IF the next series of candles produces an inside bar, and the low is taken out after its close, then a momentum continuation pattern will be in play. Keep in mind even after such a signal, the chance of a fake out is high. Why not short now? The risk around the current location for shorts is high. Even though the broader trend is bearish, and the short term momentum is bearish, temporary short squeezes are very possible like the one from 17K to 25K. You don't want to get caught at the bottom of a short squeeze, so WAIT for prices that offer greater reward/risk AND probability. The skill in this game is recognizing changes before they are obvious. ANYONE can recognize a signal, but since the market is highly random and EFFICIENT, there is NO WAY to know if a signal will follow through. I have called 3 sell signals on Bitcoin over the recent weeks. The first two offered some profit potential, but the follow through was very limited and the reward/risk was not satisfied. That's the market, you don't question it, you accept it and adjust. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.
EIGHTCAP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
43
BITCOIN Will the historic Growth Support come to the rescue?Since the rejection on the 1D MA100 five days ago, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been on a short-term pull-back which got accelerated yesterday. We covered the short-term outlook with an urgent update yesterday: For long-term traders and investors, the scene is a little different and is best illustrated on the 1W time-frame. This shows the price breaking below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) but still considerably above the 1W MA300 (red trend-line), which was the level that provided the support and immense rebound in March 2020 during the COVID asset-wide collapse. What is perhaps more relevant than ever now, is BTC's Historic Growth Zone (blue) which has held on the mid-June low and is about to be put up to test again. That Support Zone has started back on the August 2015 low, the first after the 2014 Bear Cycle. Respecting this level, means that we are still inside the ultimate Buy Zone and therefore at the start of a new Bull Cycle. At the same time the 1W RSI is (naturally) pulling back a notch and seems to be consistent with the April 2015 and January 2019 pull-backs, which where right before the start of the first rallies of the new Bull Cycles. So what do you think? Will the historic Growth Support come to the rescue once again or not? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
11