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Bitcoin-btcusd-btc

BITCOIN This 3D RSI rejection is far from ideal. CAUTION needed!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is trading today on the fourth straight red 1D candle and even though the pull-back is insignificant so far, there is a certain pattern on the 3D time-frame that is worrying. As you see, the 3D RSI hit last week the Lower Highs trend-line that started on January 07 2021 and defined this whole Bear Cycle. This week, we see that 3D RSI turning lower as the test turned out to be a rejection. This has also happened on March 26 2022 and November 06 2021, which marked the last two Highs of the market. Based also on the 3D MACD, which has been steadily rising since June 30, this pattern resembles the bottom sequence and subsequent first rise of the recovery phase during the previous Bear Cycle of 2019. As shown, the 3D RSI had a rejection exactly on the same level as today's one, while the 3D MACD was rising. As with today, the rejection came before hitting the 3D MA50 (blue trend-line) and took place on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (counting from the top of the last collapse, essentially the 3D Death Cross). The resulting pull-back found Support on the Higher Lows trend-line and the 0.236 Fibonacci level and after some more consolidation both the RSI Lower Highs and the 3D MA50 broke and a very strong rally took place. Now, the fundamentals behind that rally were different and a 3D MA50 break-out doesn't have to necessarily follow 2019 into such a strong rally. But still it will be evidence of the new Bull Cycle. If you are a short-term trader though, that 3D RSI rejection tells you to proceed to the next days with caution and look for that more confident lower buy. Do you agree? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
27
BITCOIN monthly is making a huge shift to the upsideThis is a simple Bitcoin (BTCUSD) analysis on the 1M (monthly) time-frame, using two powerful indicators that are often overlooked. Those are the Aroon Oscillator and the Vortex Indicator. The chart illustrated the Fibonacci MAs to give a sense of the long-term Support Zones, a level where we clearly are at now. As you see, every time the Aroon Osc turns sideways following a huge downfall, the Cycle bottoms. We are now sideways since June and that is typically the market accumulation phase. Once the Aroon shifts upwards even slightly, the first rally of the Bull Cycle will have already began. At the same time, the Vortex Indicator has already made its first Cross since April. Once the lines cross again, it will be an indication that the accumulation phase is over and the rally will begin, which is consistent with all prior Bear Cycle bottoms. That wraps it up on this short BTC update. Remember that sometimes, it is useful to keep a long-term perspective, especially in the crypto market. And that currently tells us that most likely we won't get a better opportunity to accumulate for the new Bull Cycle. Do you agree? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
7
Bitcoin's correction targets Bitcoin after breaking down its ascending trend-line (dashed one) it's highly likely to move downward and touch its target box showed on the chart. the first box ranges from 23800 to 24000 the second box from 23400-23600 the second one is kind of more important as it acts like a neckline for a double-top pattern. missing that could end up breaking the green strong support line on the chart. I hope it supports us again. ---------------------------------- I appreciate your support in any form such as sharing my ideas with others on social medias, leaving kind and heartwarming comments, donation, and etc. If you showed your support from me by donating, please feel free to get in touch with me so I can get to appreciate you personally ❤️️
Short
by sadmark
1
Bitcoin: Price Favors Bears.Bitcoin continues to linger and generate sell signals that fail to follow through. Is this a sign of renewed strength? Is this the beginning of the next big rally? Are you still fooled by such talk? The 22 to 24K resistance area has not been cleared, and the broader bearish context has NOT changed. This means price at current levels highly vulnerable to bearish catalysts and RISK is most unattractive for longs. Based on the current price action, you can draw converging trend lines on this time frame. These type of rare price patterns often hint toward a significant reversal (in this case BEARISH). Along with that, IF the current candle closes as a bearish pin bar, and the next candle takes out its low, another sell signal will be in play. I have been pointing out sell signals for weeks now, why won't price sell off? When markets are complacent, they tend to be very irrational, and can linger or lack any type of momentum until normalcy in terms of volume returns. Also just because sell signals appear, does not mean they "have" to follow through. Markets are highly random in case you forgot. In order to be best prepared for this environment, you NEED to pay attention to what is NOT obvious. The 25K AREA is a resistance which means selling activity is likely to appear. The context of the general environment (something you will NOT see on a chart) is NOT supportive of any sustainable rallies. The bond market has reversed lower (rates slowly rising again), the FED is still in rate rising mode, and we are about to enter the SLOWEST time of the year in terms of seasonal volume. For those who enjoy consuming "logic", the recent bullish sentiment is likely a result of too many shorts getting squeezed or getting forced out of their positions. If you pay attention to the bigger technical picture on Bitcoin (stop listening to talk), the current movement from 17K to 25K has a high chance of becoming a lower high within a broad bearish structure. Whether price establishes the lower low (break 17K?) or not is not something that can be forecast. You have to assign a probability to the event and based on current context and structure, that scenario is still a reasonable possibility. In these situations, all it takes is an unexpected catalyst. A chart will NOT help you with this. The most effective way to navigate this situation is by accounting for the RISK. For example: If 25K is cleared, 28K is the next resistance, but if a new sell signal follows through, 20K or even 17K can be tested relatively quickly. The RISK is greater than the potential for longs at these prices or on the flip side, RISK favors the shorts. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.
EIGHTCAP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
77
Bitcoin - 3 bottoms in compressed time (Update)As Bitcoin continues to show its growing technical strength since I last shared this chart, I thought it might be a good time to revisit this comparative analysis of bear market bottoms - 2015 (right), 2018 (middle) and 2022 (left) The first thing to note about this comparison is the similarities that only become visible when the timeframes are compressed and in particular, when price breaks above the channel we have seen a spike in both volume and price to signal that the trend has reversed. With uncanny similarities in the MACD, RSI, Moving Averages and Price structures, between the 5-day (2015), 2-day (2018) and 1-day (2022) timeframes, it certainly looks like price could continue to move higher. This will require a break above the 1D 100MA (light blue line) and increasing volume. Notably, this is the 3rd day that price has held above the channel, but sandwiched by the 1D 100MA, which makes a break of this MA the likely trigger for a surge upward. Do you think a break to the upside of the 1D 100MA will be significant factor for a price rally?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Crypto-Swing
2
BITCOIN 1H TA; Can record a new HH?In the previous analysis, we identified the resistance and support zone that successfully broke your position and approached the previous peak. Currently, if it successfully breaks this area, it can register a new peak and the upward trend will gain strength. Otherwise, the possibility of correction up to the trend line and in case of breaking the trend line up to the specified areas is not far from expected. Its not Buy or Sell SIGNAL DYOR BY : Mohamad Teriz - @AtonicShark
by AtonicShark
6
BITCOIN hit its 1D MA100 for the firsts time since April!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within a sustainable Channel Up every since the June 18 Low and today hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since April 21 2022. The trend looks strong considering that the MACD on the 1W time-frame is on a Bullish Cross, however if you are a short/ medium-term trader you should be skeptical of these levels. The reason isn't just the fact that the 1D MA100 is a Resistance but as you see, the last 1W MACD Bullish Cross (March 30) was formed on a market top and failed to deliver a sustainable rise. As a result, we should be looking for a break above the November 10 2021 Lower Highs trend-line (started after the market's All Time High), which would be a bullish break-out signal towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). On the long-term, only a break above the 1D MA200 can call for a long-term trend reversal to bullish, as the MA200 was the one that rejected BTC on the March 28 High. Also on the long-term, it would be useful to consider the importance of the 0.382 - 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels, when the 1D MA200 breaks, as the highest volatility of this Bear Cycle has been seen within those levels. Feel free to share your work and comment below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
19
Bitcoin long-term view - bottom time decreasing ??!!Bitcoin long-term view - bottom time decreasing ??!! Of course only few BTC data points - but comparing the bottom phase 2015 and 2019 we can see a reduced length (10 month >> 4 month) Will the current bottom phase (if we are in it) be again reduced ?! Explanation: red - candle of PI cycle bottom yellow - candle breaking out on RSI green - candle breaking out sideways action (start bull run) What are your thoughts dear Crypto Nation? *not financial advice do your own research before investing
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Crypto4Everybody
4
BITCOIN Radical Cycle Comparison gives the next Top around 140k!This is not the first time I use the fractals of the previous Cycles under a certain rules of parameters in order to make a projection. This is by far the best methodology to make long-term projections on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) as its cyclical behavior has been extremely consistent over the years. This time is no different and the dynamic under which I compare the Cycles is a Lower Highs zone. As you see if we start all Cycles from their market Bottom on the same straight (Support) line, they all make their Top on the same Lower Highs zone. As a result I've used all past Cycle models (July 2010 - October 2011 = Black, November 2011 - January 2015 = Blue, February 2015 - December 2018 = Green, January 2019 - June 2022 = Orange), and fit them under this Lower Highs zone to expand the model with an average projection. If we then take all those new projections and start them on the actual price action (time-frame on 1W) starting from the June 2022 Low, we can get a fair estimation. It is interesting to see that with the expection of the first (black) Cycle which was the most aggressive, the remaining three all give an estimated top within 115 - 140k! The first Cycle (black), being quicker, rising to the Lower Highs zone much higher, gives the next Top around 230k but it is unlikely to get that aggressive price action again. Again, those are just projections based on Bitcoin's 10+ year price action and a certain set of parameters. The future trend doesn't have to follow any of those but all of them bundled together do make a fair average projection indeed. So where do you personally have the next Cycle Top at? Do you think this model can offer a good projection? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! P.S. Because the chart has these bar projections (different colors) plotted and not constant, it may appear distorted based on your screen's/ browser dimensions. The original looks like this below, so if yours doesn't, adjust the vertical/ horizontal axis in order to make it look like this and better understand what is illustrated: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
9
Descending The Well of Hope: Is 4-Digit Bitcoin Next?You may have come across the phrase: "Climbing a wall of worry." This describes the phenomenon whereby the market continues higher and higher, despite overwhelming evidence that it shouldn't be climbing at all. Take a look at the stock market during the pandemic. Imagine climbing up a looming wall, worried that you'll fall off any moment because the wall looks unstable. Riches await on the wall's other side, but of course only if you manage to climb successfully down once you reach the top. This symbolizes a successful long term trade - you are able to successfully navigate the descending portion of your journey by selling at the right time and reducing risk. The Well of Hope is my attempt at illustrating the opposite phenomenon, as it applies to people who remain stubbornly bullish on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. To those individuals, overwhelming evidence seems to suggest that price will eventually go back up. For instance, long term holders continue to accumulate and inflation is out of control (this is what Bitcoin was designed for, right?) Nevertheless, clearly Bitcoin's finite supply is a pretty pointless metric because the Bitcoin code can be forked, and endless other cryptocurrencies can be created, which essentially makes the supply of all cryptocurrencies combined infinite and inflationary, much like the fiat monetary system itself. The market also seems to require inflationary stablecoins to remain liquid. Bitcoiners' complaints about the fiat system are valid, but their solution often results in circular arguments and logical fallacies, in my opinion. There's more on that in some of my other posts. Now, imagine climbing down a well to find water because a bunch of nearby villagers told you a pool full of gold exists at the bottom, but you do not yet have a pulley or bucket to retrieve any water. As you go deeper and deeper, you keep expecting to find water and gold, but you remain empty-handed. Eventually, you are so deep that it is almost impossible to return back to the surface. In the end, you find no gold, even though everyone told you that there would be some. Unfortunately, there isn't much you can do once you reach the bottom, because you expended all your energy getting down there. This differs from the wall of worry because you cannot successfully climb back up. When you climb the wall, you have a choice to let go and fall back at any time, even though you might die or get seriously injured. This is meant to illustrate what I believe to be the inherent value of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which is essentially nothing. There is no Gold at the bottom of the well. Likewise, it's very possible Bitcoin never returns to all-time high. So, how does this translate to the chart? Well, if we are indeed descending a "Well of Hope" with no precious gold at the bottom, then we can expect Bitcoin to complete a full-retrace of its recent bull market rally. Many still hope to purchase Bitcoin at sub-$15k levels, such as $13.8k, $12k, or $10k. However, I think there is a greater than 50% probability that Bitcoin has seen its absolute high in terms of purchasing power. Note: Even if the dollar goes to zero (as many Bitcoin pundits expect) and Bitcoin is worth $5 Million per coin, its purchasing power can still be almost nothing. If the dollar is worthless, than something worth $5 Million is ALSO worthless. This means I think it's more likely Bitcoin continues descending the well of hope, with the next stop being below $10k. The last wave down took BTC from $48.2k to $17.6k - cutting price by almost 2/3rds, or nearly 66%. A similar proportional drop from $24k would place Bitcoin in the $8-9k zone on its next wave down. I have been speculating about a relief rally heading into the final quarter of 2022 for markets, but there is also the possibility this does not materialize, if things fall apart quickly for heavyweight companies this week. As shown on the righthand chart, Bitcoin has failed at both the 9 week EMA and the 200 week MA. This is incredibly bearish. In my last analysis, I wrote about how those resistances must be cleared. Particularly after last week's close, the chart has never looked this bearish in the asset's history. Finding resistance at the 200 wee MA is very troubling indeed. In addition, the daily MACD is dangerously close to flipping back to red, just near the zero line, showing serious failure to produce bullish momentum. Here is my most recent post: I'm also still watching Tron (TRX), which suspiciously still has not dropped from its highs, unlike almost every other crypto out there. Microstrategy has also experienced a harsh rejection at the 200 week MA, as it has been labeled as "overvalued" by investors. It has a long way to fall, should shares collapse in similar fashion to the dotcom bubble pop. The double-whammy of a recession (declining demand for their product) and Bitcoin's collapse could put MSTR in serious trouble. What About The Bullish Scenario? It still exists. In the short term, the futures market seems to be biased to the sell-side, so we could see a short squeeze. Bitcoin must reclaim the 9 week EMA (orange) and the 200 week MA (teal). It also must show a bottoming structure. So far, this resembles previous bear flags. The resistance is incredibly strong. Here is a recent post where I outlined what Bitcoin needs to accomplish in order to look bullish long term again. This is a tall order, and seems very unlikely at the moment. But, as we know, Bitcoin tends to do what most people think is very unlikely. This means we see $100k this year, or we plunge back to $6k and lower. One of the main reasons sustained upside seems unlikely is that the futures market seems to be largely influencing price. Open interest has been leading the market for months now, and these traders are biased to the long side. This tells me the market is being propped up by derivatives, since not enough liquidity exists in the spot market. The lack of liquidity in the spot market is a result of a supply shortage from sellers on exchanges and a lack of dollars on the sidelines due to pressures from inflation and demands from debt amidst rising interest rates. More evidence for this is that open interest has been consistently decreasing as price decreases. If the futures market were biased to the short side, we'd likely see open interest increase as price heads lower. This was something that happened last summer, and what helped me anticipate the short squeeze. Recently, open interest has consistently skyrocketed on every bounce, as traders are eager to time the bottom. This is a very different situation from the summer of 2021. Although....what if there is no bottom? Welcome to the Well of Hope. This is meant for speculation and entertainment only, not as financial advice! This only represents my opinion and feelings at the moment. Before making any significant financial decisions, please consult a professional financial advisor who can work with your own needs, risk tolerance, and financial circumstances. -Victor Cobra
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by VictorCobra
15