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Bitcoin-btcusd-btc

Temporary bounce up to 24k and then back down again? Continuation of my idea from yesterday where I called the top of the rising channel. A small bounce up from the center of the channel is possible like we did last time, perhaps up to 24k before treading back down. Still overall bearish and expecting to break the channel maybe within a week or so to the downside. I think people have not fully appreciated the monetary tightened environment we're in. Nearly everyone, both retail and institutions and corporations were credit addicts for the past decade and more. Everyone was already overleveraged. People have not saved up money for higher interests or inflation events like this one. At least for now, money will not be flowing into crypto or equities. Nor have I really heard much talk about the absolutely unprecedented disaster coming for world food prices and security. 12% of the world's calories come from Ukraine and Russia's grain and oil seed exports. 25% of fertilizer as well (which increase yields 30-50%). Conservative estimate maybe around 28% of the world's calories will not make it into markets. Africa and Middle East will have famines while food prices everywhere else will skyrocket. This isn't even fear porn and calling it that and not doing something now about it will lead to a lot of needless suffering. 2023 looking grim if we don't do anything to reverse this, my guess is we'll try half-heartedly and fail. Stay safe and love one another. Not trading or financial advice.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by kievanrusbazaar
1
BITCOIN correlation with Nasdaq on market bottoms.Rally imminentThis is a simple long-term analysis on the 1M (monthly) time-frame, comparing Bitcoin (BTCUSD) to Nasdaq (NDX), with a focus on their market bottoms. On the left chart I have Bitcoin's price action with Nasdaq on top of it (green candles) and on the right, Nasdaq alone. Both have their respective RSI sequences below them. As you see, BTC has been (naturally) following closely the tech index over its years, being a technological breakthrough itself. What's even more interesting, is that during every BTC Bear Cycle, Nasdaq only pulled back later (and some times much later) into the Cycle. This somewhat validates our belief that the true top during BTC's current Cycle has been in April 2021 and not November 2021, which coincidentally was when the Nasdaq topped and started correcting. On July's monthly candle, we saw a strong reaction on both assets. Note that this is the first 1M green candle after three straight monthly losses. Nasdaq in particular hadn't seen this since December 2018. So right now the two seem to be in sync and the positive news for Bitcoin come from the NDX's long-term behavior. As you see on the right chart, July's rebound came after June made a (near) bottom on the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). Such rebounds following near hits on the 1M MA50 have been the ultimate buy entries on Nasdaq since the recovery started after the 2008/09 Housing Crisis (more specifically since July 2010). As a result it is much more likely that this is the start of a new long-term rally on the tech index. With its correlation with Bitcoin being so tight at the moment, this is more likely to be the start of the new Bull Cycle as well. Last but not least, notice that both on BTC's and NDX's 1M RSI sequences, the price is currently retesting the prior Support as a Resistance. A break above it is technically a very bullish sign. So do you think that the Nasdaq can now drag Bitcoin to a new powerful rally? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! P.S. Because the chart on the left has two assets together, it may appear distorted based on your screen's/ browser dimensions. The original looks like this below, so if yours doesn't, adjust the vertical axis in order to make it look like this and better understand what is illustrated: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
6
Bitcoin PI Cycle Indicator - MAs with 195% distanceHow would you rate the entry points (yellow cycles) for Bitcoin when you look at the naked chart (see below in the comments)?? We got quite nice entry-points for Bitcoin with less or no more downside every time when the PI Cycle Indicator MAs had a distance of 195% Of course that is no guarantee for the future and the MAs distance was higher at some points... ...but the probability that Bitcoin is near a bottom is not small looking at these facts in the chart Tell me your opinion about that dear Crypto Nation 😎 *not financial advice do your own research before investing
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Crypto4Everybody
1
BITCOIN bottomed and prepares the post summer rallyAn increasing number of long-term indicators have been showing lately that Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is past its bottom for this Bear Cycle. On this analysis I am shifting to an even longer-term time-frame, the 4W, using an overlooked but often very powerful indicator: the Williams Alligator. During the past two Cycles, the bottom was formed when the green trend-line (lips) crossed below the red trend-line (teeth). On both of then that took 15 bars from the Top of the previous Bull Cycle. Then the green trend-line Bearish Cross below the blue trend-line (jaws) ushered the Accumulation Phase and it wasn't until the red trend-line crossing below the blue that we had the final signal of the first strong rally of the new Bull Cycle. This time the Green/ Red Bearish Cross took place on the current candle, 17 bars this time from the top. The Green/ Blue Bearish Cross has been formed on the September 12 candle, while the Red/ Blue on November 07 2022. As result this prints a quite reliable roadmap on how BTC's price action might trade in the coming months. It basically suggests that by late October, Bitcoin could be ready for a strong end-of-the-year rally. At the same time, we shouldn't ignore the, always reliable on long-term projections, RSI indicator. This shows that it hit the Support, which has formed the bottoms of 2014 and 2018, two candle's ago and is now rebounding. Additional strong information is that when the RSI broke above its MA (yellow trend-line), the rally started. Do you agree with the Williams Alligator that the bottom is behind us and we've entered the Accumulation Phase of the new Bull Cycle as BTC prepares for a Q4 rally? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
16
Bitcoin bull run when DXY tops out ??!!Bitcoin bull run when DXY tops out ??!! Look at the last BTC behavior when the US Dollar Index left the overbought area on the weekly RSI We had a 140 weeks bull run to the next cycle top - the BTC price distance to the long MA was ~222% (green line) These days DXY left the overbought area on the weekly RSI again - the distance to the long MA is ~222% Coincidence... sure!!! ;-) Tell me your thoughts on that possible BULL Scenario *not financial advice do your own research before investing
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Crypto4Everybody
BTC market overview for July 28The market is in the uptrend on the Daily timeframe starting from July 19 after breaking through $21,955 - the upper border of the resistance. The correction came to an end yesterday, and the market is rising now. This correction formed another resistance with the borders of $24,280 - $23,390 This price zone is the target for the bullish movement after the correction is finished. And we see that the price has already hit this zone Scenario 1 : The market continues to go up, and breaks through the resistance. The next target is on the highs of June 7 - $31,965 - $31,400. Scenario 2 : The price bounces from the resistance and the correction starts Scenario 3 : The market reverses and the bearish trend begins. Signals to buy are relevant until the market is above the support . The nearest support was formed yesterday.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JIexa1701
BITCOIN A mind-blowing approach to Cyclical Theory based on DXY This is an alternative representation of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and its Cyclical behavior based on the long-term price action of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). A simple yet eye-opening approach that links BTC to the USD more than any other asset. ** Traditional Cycle Theory vs BTC/DXY Divergence/ Convergence Theory ** Traditional theory suggests that Bitcoin's current Bear Cycle is the 4th one. The 1st was in June - November 2011, 2nd in December 2013 - January 2015, 3rd in December 2017 - December 2018 and 4th (current one) in April 2021 - now. However this BTC/DXY Divergence/ Convergence Theory shows that Bitcoin could only be trading on its 2nd ever Historic Cycle and in fact preparing for the final rally that will complete it (curved arrow). ** DXY hyper rally and BTC Bear Phase ** How's that so? Well by looking at the DXY (green trend-line on your chart), we see that the hyper rally it has been trading on since May 2021 is identical to that of March 2014 - March 2015. Both started a few weeks after Bitcoin peaked (4) and started a Channel Down correction (Bear Phase) that would find a bottom (5) and prepare for the final rally. When that happened in mid 2015, the DXY had peaked and turned sideways for an extended period of time (almost a year). Bitcoin's final rally peaked (6) when DXY bottomed. ** The Cycle's Bullish Megaphone pattern ** But what led to this Bear Phase (4-5) and rally (6)? Well it was a period of volatility on DXY which formed a Bullish Megaphone pattern on Bitcoin. The early phase of the pattern (1-2-3) was accumulation after BTC's rally peak (6) when DXY had recovered from its April 2011 bottom and traded on high volatility and as this sideways move progressed, BTC gained power. Notice the huge Divergence (Rectangle pattern) where Bitcoin peaked (6) and DXY bottomed that was what paved the way for Bitcoin's Megaphone. The Convergence happened on Phases 1-2-3. ** This is Bitcoin's only 2nd Cycle ** As you have noticed, this is the exact same pattern that Bitcoin and DXY haven been trading in since December 2018. The Divergence led to the Convergence of the two and creation of the new Megaphone (1-2-3), which based on the model is just its 2nd Cycle ever. DXY's hyper rally that started in May 2021 following the crash of March - December 2020 due to the COVID trillion rescue packages, which distorted DXY's true bottom, gave rise to the April 2021 - now Bear Phase (4-5). This is where we are today. With the DXY on a 1 year hyper rally, which has most likely reached its top as its identical March 2014 - March 2015 rally was completed in one year. If that's the case, then Bitcoin's Bear Phase has also bottomed and as discussed at the start of the analysis, it is entering the short accumulation phase that will initiate the final rally outside of the Bullish Megaphone, which validates being its only 2nd Historic Cycle. But what do you think? Do you agree with the BTC/DXY Divergence/ Convergence Model indicating that we are only on Bitcoin's second every Cycle? And if so are we about to see the DXY turning sideways and a mega rally on Bitcoin? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! P.S. Because this chart has two assets together, it may appear distorted based on your screen's/ browser dimensions. The original looks like this below, so if yours doesn't, adjust the vertical axis in order to make it look like this and better understand what is illustrated: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
23
BTC sees swift retrace below $21,000, a retest of upside next?Bitcoin price analysis: BTC sees swift retrace below $21,000, a retest of upside next? Bitcoin price analysis is bullish today. BTC/USD broke past $21,000. Selling pressure is currently weak. Bitcoin price analysis is bullish today as we expect another retest of upside after a strong drop over the last 24 hours set another clear lower local low. Therefore, we expect BTC/USD to rally back towards previous support at $21,500 and set another lower high.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by henryartem
BITCOIN The ultimate Bear pattern slowly breaking to the upsideThis is a very interesting pattern that perhaps was ignored but paints Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) whole picture during this Bear Cycle. ** Mini Channels within Main Channel Down ** As you see the dominant structure has been a Channel Down but with the use of the Fibonacci Channel levels we can see that it can be divided into two secondary (mini) ones that seem to have almost the same trading pattern (the first (A) within the 0.0 and 0.382 Fibs and the second (B) within the 0.618 and 1.0 Fibs). The RSI sequences tend to agree with that thesis and right now we are at the point after the mini Channel (A) broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which following a pull-back to the 0.786 Fib, rebounded to the -0.236 extension. That happened to be on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at the time and causing a rejection, kick-started mini Channel (B). ** The Bearish and Bullish extremes ** We may be missing an important detail though. By breaking above the 1D MA50 last week, BTC broke above the main Channel Down of the Bear Cycle. However it did a proportional break to the downside of the Channel on December 04, which I call (Bearish Extreme) and that came close to the -0.236 Fib. Similarly this may be the Bullish Extreme to the 1.236 Fib symmetry. A break above it, invalidates the bearish bias and breaks the main Channel Down completely to the upside, opening the way for a new pattern for the first time since the November 11 2021 All Time High (ATH). As a result it would be ideal to break above the -0.236/1.236 Resistance cluster above as soon as possible to confirm the first pattern into the new Bull Cycle. Until then there seems to be heavy sell accumulation around 26k. Do you think this is the ultimate pattern we've been ignoring for so long and if yes do you expect a break above the 1.236 Fib extension to take us into the new Bull Cycle? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
7
Bitcoin - Does turbulence lie ahead? In the past few weeks, we reiterated our lack of belief in the trend reversal in Bitcoin. We said the price bounce would be temporary and that it was too premature to call the bottom. Additionally, we stuck to a short-term bullish call and medium/long-term bearish call. Furthermore, we also hinted at signs of weakness that led to the inability of BTCUSD to continue higher. Among these developments, we also hinted at structural problems in the cryptocurrency market. These also remain today with the latest addition of Coinbase to troubled companies in the sector (due to alleged investigation). Threats from higher interest rates, economic tightening, and global recession also continue to persist. With these new developments in the market, we turned bearish on Bitcoin in the short term. That is mainly due to Bitcoin retracing below 21 868 USD. We said that such development would be bearish in the setup we introduced in our latest idea. Accordingly, we stick to what we said. However, if the immediate resistance/support is broken to the upside, it will cause us to turn bullish again. Because of that, tight stop-losses should accompany trade entries. *The FED meeting is scheduled for Wednesday. We will be very cautious as the FED is expected to raise interest rates and further worsen economic conditions.* Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of BTCUSD. It also shows the downward sloping channel. The upper bound connects two peaks and acts as the resistance; meanwhile, the lower bound is parallel to the upper bound and acts as the support. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and Stochastic turned bearish. DM+ and DM- performed bearish crossover. The MACD is neutral. The ADX contains a relatively low value which hints at a weak trend. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 Recently, we hinted at the presence of low volume accompanying the breakout above 21 868 USD price tag. We noted that this was a sign of weakness, and if the volume stayed insufficient, then the market was due to reverse abruptly. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
26
Bitcoin short-term view - breakdown of bullish flagBitcoin short-term view - breakdown of bullish flag (a) This occurred without bullish divergence - a fakeout seems not likely (b) the move stopped at the important $21.000 Bulls hope for a kind of W-shape pattern with a second leg on the FIB golden pocket combined with a bullish divergence on RSI Bears hope for a confirmation of the breakdown What are you dear Crypto Nation - BULL or BEAR? *not financial advice do your own research before investing
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Crypto4Everybody