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Bitcoin - Forecast with Elliot WavesHi Traders, Investors and Speculators📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. The Elliott Wave theory is named after Ralph Nelson Elliott (28 July 1871 – 15 January 1948). He was an American accountant and also an author. Inspired by the Dow Theory, Elliott concluded that the movement of the stock market could be predicted by observing and identifying a repetitive pattern of waves. I find this another useful take on market cycles/phases, R Elliot is considered one of the 5 titans of chart analysis. Let's take a BRIEF look at the Elliot Wave Theory: Simply put, movement in the direction of the bullish up-trend is unfolding in 5 waves while any correction against the trend is in three waves (called corrective wave). From this you can already conclude that there is no specific time frame limit - you can have multiple waves in a larger wave, for example: The movement in the direction of the UP-trend is labelled as 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. The three-wave bearish correction is labelled as A, B, and C. These patterns can be seen in long term as well as short term charts. Smaller patterns can be identified within bigger patterns. Think of it like this: Elliott Waves are like a piece of broccoli🥦 , where the smaller piece does in fact, look like the big piece. This information on smaller patterns fitting into bigger patterns, offers the trader a level of anticipation and/or prediction when searching for and identifying trading opportunities with solid reward/risk ratio. The world is changing at an exponential rate, and some changes need to be considered as we take a look and plot the waves. We have five major classes of market: Stock market, forex market, commodities market, cryptocurrency markets and bond markets. The Elliott Wave Theory was originally derived from the observation of the stock market (i.e. Dow Theory), but certain markets such as forex exhibit more of a ranging market. In today’s market, 5 waves move still happen in the market, but many analysts recently suggest that a 3 waves move happens more frequently in the market than a 5 waves move . In addition, market can keep moving in a corrective structure in the same direction. In other words, the market can trend in a corrective structure; it keeps moving in the sequence of 3 waves, getting a pullback, then continue the same direction again in a 3 waves corrective move. So not just ABC, but possible ABCABCAB etc. until a bottom is established via candlestick analysis. To conclude, don't be too rigid with rules especially considering the ever changing markets and the fact that the Elliot Wave theory was originally designed for stock markets. However, this does not make it obsolete ! By combining a few of the methods mentioned above, one can get a reasonable idea of which market phase we are trading in and confirm it by taking a look at the charts from multiple perspectives and theories. Currently, I enjoy using Wyckoff Method, Elliot Waves, Fibonacci Retracement + trend based Fibonacci Extension , Candlestick analysis, Chart patterns (occasionally) as well as major supply and demand zones / whale zones. I like to use support zones and resistance zones for lower timeframes / the lower the timeframe analyzed, the higher the risk. __________________________ 👀Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 📉 Hit like & Follow 🔔 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
Long
by CryptoCheck-
64
Bitcoin - 3 bottoms in compressed timeHere’s an interesting view of the current daily BTC price action (left) compared against a 2-day perspective of the 2018 bear market bottom (centre) and a 3-day perspective of the 2015 bear market bottom (right). “Interesting” because there is a very similar narrative apparent when viewed in this way. The common narrative for 2015 and 2018 is: A rally to the top of the channel, a drop below the midline, a rally to the top of the channel, a drop back to (and overshoot through in 2015) the midline to find it as support, then rally through the top of the channel with the 12MA (purple) and 20MA (brown) providing support into a rising market trend. Now look at 2022 on the left. Does it not fit the same narrative? I also note the similarities in the RSI and the MACD. Another similar feature is the 50MA turning upwards after entering the channel. In fact, the only feature missing is a large green spike in the Volume (Circled) coincident with a burst over 70 on the RSI and a dramatic launch of price beyond the channel. What do you think? Is this a case of apophenia (seeing patterns and relationships where they don't exist) or has the bottom of the bear market been printed?
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Crypto-Swing
2
Bitcoin – be ready for this move!Hello, everyone! Many times I told you that the bear market is not over, but closed to it’s end, I am waiting for the last wave 5 and I am sure we will see $17.5k, but market today shows us that before we can see another one push to the upside. My job is to make you aware before something happened. At the 4h timeframe BTCUSDT chart we can see that the price is going to form the terminal diagonal triangle – the formation which ends the trend. This scenario almost perfectly corresponds to the other analysis tools. We can see that the Bitcoin found support and showing the bullish reaction exactly from Fibonacci golden pocket. Thus it can potentially pump to Fibonacci zone 27(Fib div strategy target), approximately to $25k. We can execute the trade with the stop loss below Fibonacci golden pocket. This potential pump looks even more logically for me than the crash from the current price. In this case we will see the true bearish divergence with MACD which can start the last crash. I am not going to execute this trade, but I re entered to the positions which I closed when the Bitcoin price was $24k, hence in every case I will be in profit according to my tradevesting strategy. The pump’s probability for me now = 80%. Good luck!
Long
by Skyrexio
8
BITCOIN starting a recovery similar to post COVID.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within a very structured Channel Up following the June 19 Low. Both charts are on the 12H time-frame, which illustrates remarkable similarities between the current pattern of 2022 and that of late 2019/ early 2020 following the COVID bottom. As you see at the moment, the price has turned the 12H MA50 (blue trend-line) into a Support, with the 12H MA200 right above, posing as the Resistance. The 1W RSI has just crossed above its MA (yellow trend-line) putting us potentially in the exact same position as late April 2020. As you see, BTC was also within a Channel Up at the time that eventually broke above the 12H MA200. However due to the instant recovery on the March 13 2020 bottom and the price jump attributed to the expectation that the trillions of USD printed will keep the economy moving from the lockdowns, that Channel Up was formed much higher than the current one, which is technically a Bear Cycle bottom. Typically their transition is slower. I have plotted the 2020 recovery sequence on today's price action in order to make one possible projection. As you see, many aspects on the two patterns are similar: both had their MA50 and MA200 cross three times before the bottom, both got rejected on the 0.786 Fibonacci, their Lower Lows were roughly on a -35° angle and both rebounded on the 1W MA300 (red trend-line). Do you think we will have a similar recovery to that of post COVID? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
17
Temporary bounce up to 24k and then back down again? Continuation of my idea from yesterday where I called the top of the rising channel. A small bounce up from the center of the channel is possible like we did last time, perhaps up to 24k before treading back down. Still overall bearish and expecting to break the channel maybe within a week or so to the downside. I think people have not fully appreciated the monetary tightened environment we're in. Nearly everyone, both retail and institutions and corporations were credit addicts for the past decade and more. Everyone was already overleveraged. People have not saved up money for higher interests or inflation events like this one. At least for now, money will not be flowing into crypto or equities. Nor have I really heard much talk about the absolutely unprecedented disaster coming for world food prices and security. 12% of the world's calories come from Ukraine and Russia's grain and oil seed exports. 25% of fertilizer as well (which increase yields 30-50%). Conservative estimate maybe around 28% of the world's calories will not make it into markets. Africa and Middle East will have famines while food prices everywhere else will skyrocket. This isn't even fear porn and calling it that and not doing something now about it will lead to a lot of needless suffering. 2023 looking grim if we don't do anything to reverse this, my guess is we'll try half-heartedly and fail. Stay safe and love one another. Not trading or financial advice.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by kievanrusbazaar
1
BITCOIN correlation with Nasdaq on market bottoms.Rally imminentThis is a simple long-term analysis on the 1M (monthly) time-frame, comparing Bitcoin (BTCUSD) to Nasdaq (NDX), with a focus on their market bottoms. On the left chart I have Bitcoin's price action with Nasdaq on top of it (green candles) and on the right, Nasdaq alone. Both have their respective RSI sequences below them. As you see, BTC has been (naturally) following closely the tech index over its years, being a technological breakthrough itself. What's even more interesting, is that during every BTC Bear Cycle, Nasdaq only pulled back later (and some times much later) into the Cycle. This somewhat validates our belief that the true top during BTC's current Cycle has been in April 2021 and not November 2021, which coincidentally was when the Nasdaq topped and started correcting. On July's monthly candle, we saw a strong reaction on both assets. Note that this is the first 1M green candle after three straight monthly losses. Nasdaq in particular hadn't seen this since December 2018. So right now the two seem to be in sync and the positive news for Bitcoin come from the NDX's long-term behavior. As you see on the right chart, July's rebound came after June made a (near) bottom on the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). Such rebounds following near hits on the 1M MA50 have been the ultimate buy entries on Nasdaq since the recovery started after the 2008/09 Housing Crisis (more specifically since July 2010). As a result it is much more likely that this is the start of a new long-term rally on the tech index. With its correlation with Bitcoin being so tight at the moment, this is more likely to be the start of the new Bull Cycle as well. Last but not least, notice that both on BTC's and NDX's 1M RSI sequences, the price is currently retesting the prior Support as a Resistance. A break above it is technically a very bullish sign. So do you think that the Nasdaq can now drag Bitcoin to a new powerful rally? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! P.S. Because the chart on the left has two assets together, it may appear distorted based on your screen's/ browser dimensions. The original looks like this below, so if yours doesn't, adjust the vertical axis in order to make it look like this and better understand what is illustrated: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
6
Bitcoin PI Cycle Indicator - MAs with 195% distanceHow would you rate the entry points (yellow cycles) for Bitcoin when you look at the naked chart (see below in the comments)?? We got quite nice entry-points for Bitcoin with less or no more downside every time when the PI Cycle Indicator MAs had a distance of 195% Of course that is no guarantee for the future and the MAs distance was higher at some points... ...but the probability that Bitcoin is near a bottom is not small looking at these facts in the chart Tell me your opinion about that dear Crypto Nation 😎 *not financial advice do your own research before investing
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Crypto4Everybody
1
BITCOIN bottomed and prepares the post summer rallyAn increasing number of long-term indicators have been showing lately that Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is past its bottom for this Bear Cycle. On this analysis I am shifting to an even longer-term time-frame, the 4W, using an overlooked but often very powerful indicator: the Williams Alligator. During the past two Cycles, the bottom was formed when the green trend-line (lips) crossed below the red trend-line (teeth). On both of then that took 15 bars from the Top of the previous Bull Cycle. Then the green trend-line Bearish Cross below the blue trend-line (jaws) ushered the Accumulation Phase and it wasn't until the red trend-line crossing below the blue that we had the final signal of the first strong rally of the new Bull Cycle. This time the Green/ Red Bearish Cross took place on the current candle, 17 bars this time from the top. The Green/ Blue Bearish Cross has been formed on the September 12 candle, while the Red/ Blue on November 07 2022. As result this prints a quite reliable roadmap on how BTC's price action might trade in the coming months. It basically suggests that by late October, Bitcoin could be ready for a strong end-of-the-year rally. At the same time, we shouldn't ignore the, always reliable on long-term projections, RSI indicator. This shows that it hit the Support, which has formed the bottoms of 2014 and 2018, two candle's ago and is now rebounding. Additional strong information is that when the RSI broke above its MA (yellow trend-line), the rally started. Do you agree with the Williams Alligator that the bottom is behind us and we've entered the Accumulation Phase of the new Bull Cycle as BTC prepares for a Q4 rally? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
16
Bitcoin bull run when DXY tops out ??!!Bitcoin bull run when DXY tops out ??!! Look at the last BTC behavior when the US Dollar Index left the overbought area on the weekly RSI We had a 140 weeks bull run to the next cycle top - the BTC price distance to the long MA was ~222% (green line) These days DXY left the overbought area on the weekly RSI again - the distance to the long MA is ~222% Coincidence... sure!!! ;-) Tell me your thoughts on that possible BULL Scenario *not financial advice do your own research before investing
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Crypto4Everybody
BTC market overview for July 28The market is in the uptrend on the Daily timeframe starting from July 19 after breaking through $21,955 - the upper border of the resistance. The correction came to an end yesterday, and the market is rising now. This correction formed another resistance with the borders of $24,280 - $23,390 This price zone is the target for the bullish movement after the correction is finished. And we see that the price has already hit this zone Scenario 1 : The market continues to go up, and breaks through the resistance. The next target is on the highs of June 7 - $31,965 - $31,400. Scenario 2 : The price bounces from the resistance and the correction starts Scenario 3 : The market reverses and the bearish trend begins. Signals to buy are relevant until the market is above the support . The nearest support was formed yesterday.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JIexa1701
BITCOIN A mind-blowing approach to Cyclical Theory based on DXY This is an alternative representation of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and its Cyclical behavior based on the long-term price action of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). A simple yet eye-opening approach that links BTC to the USD more than any other asset. ** Traditional Cycle Theory vs BTC/DXY Divergence/ Convergence Theory ** Traditional theory suggests that Bitcoin's current Bear Cycle is the 4th one. The 1st was in June - November 2011, 2nd in December 2013 - January 2015, 3rd in December 2017 - December 2018 and 4th (current one) in April 2021 - now. However this BTC/DXY Divergence/ Convergence Theory shows that Bitcoin could only be trading on its 2nd ever Historic Cycle and in fact preparing for the final rally that will complete it (curved arrow). ** DXY hyper rally and BTC Bear Phase ** How's that so? Well by looking at the DXY (green trend-line on your chart), we see that the hyper rally it has been trading on since May 2021 is identical to that of March 2014 - March 2015. Both started a few weeks after Bitcoin peaked (4) and started a Channel Down correction (Bear Phase) that would find a bottom (5) and prepare for the final rally. When that happened in mid 2015, the DXY had peaked and turned sideways for an extended period of time (almost a year). Bitcoin's final rally peaked (6) when DXY bottomed. ** The Cycle's Bullish Megaphone pattern ** But what led to this Bear Phase (4-5) and rally (6)? Well it was a period of volatility on DXY which formed a Bullish Megaphone pattern on Bitcoin. The early phase of the pattern (1-2-3) was accumulation after BTC's rally peak (6) when DXY had recovered from its April 2011 bottom and traded on high volatility and as this sideways move progressed, BTC gained power. Notice the huge Divergence (Rectangle pattern) where Bitcoin peaked (6) and DXY bottomed that was what paved the way for Bitcoin's Megaphone. The Convergence happened on Phases 1-2-3. ** This is Bitcoin's only 2nd Cycle ** As you have noticed, this is the exact same pattern that Bitcoin and DXY haven been trading in since December 2018. The Divergence led to the Convergence of the two and creation of the new Megaphone (1-2-3), which based on the model is just its 2nd Cycle ever. DXY's hyper rally that started in May 2021 following the crash of March - December 2020 due to the COVID trillion rescue packages, which distorted DXY's true bottom, gave rise to the April 2021 - now Bear Phase (4-5). This is where we are today. With the DXY on a 1 year hyper rally, which has most likely reached its top as its identical March 2014 - March 2015 rally was completed in one year. If that's the case, then Bitcoin's Bear Phase has also bottomed and as discussed at the start of the analysis, it is entering the short accumulation phase that will initiate the final rally outside of the Bullish Megaphone, which validates being its only 2nd Historic Cycle. But what do you think? Do you agree with the BTC/DXY Divergence/ Convergence Model indicating that we are only on Bitcoin's second every Cycle? And if so are we about to see the DXY turning sideways and a mega rally on Bitcoin? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! P.S. Because this chart has two assets together, it may appear distorted based on your screen's/ browser dimensions. The original looks like this below, so if yours doesn't, adjust the vertical axis in order to make it look like this and better understand what is illustrated: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
23