Get started

Bitcoin-btcusd-btc

Bitcoin long-term view - bottom time decreasing ??!!Bitcoin long-term view - bottom time decreasing ??!! Of course only few BTC data points - but comparing the bottom phase 2015 and 2019 we can see a reduced length (10 month >> 4 month) Will the current bottom phase (if we are in it) be again reduced ?! Explanation: red - candle of PI cycle bottom yellow - candle breaking out on RSI green - candle breaking out sideways action (start bull run) What are your thoughts dear Crypto Nation? *not financial advice do your own research before investing
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Crypto4Everybody
4
BITCOIN Radical Cycle Comparison gives the next Top around 140k!This is not the first time I use the fractals of the previous Cycles under a certain rules of parameters in order to make a projection. This is by far the best methodology to make long-term projections on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) as its cyclical behavior has been extremely consistent over the years. This time is no different and the dynamic under which I compare the Cycles is a Lower Highs zone. As you see if we start all Cycles from their market Bottom on the same straight (Support) line, they all make their Top on the same Lower Highs zone. As a result I've used all past Cycle models (July 2010 - October 2011 = Black, November 2011 - January 2015 = Blue, February 2015 - December 2018 = Green, January 2019 - June 2022 = Orange), and fit them under this Lower Highs zone to expand the model with an average projection. If we then take all those new projections and start them on the actual price action (time-frame on 1W) starting from the June 2022 Low, we can get a fair estimation. It is interesting to see that with the expection of the first (black) Cycle which was the most aggressive, the remaining three all give an estimated top within 115 - 140k! The first Cycle (black), being quicker, rising to the Lower Highs zone much higher, gives the next Top around 230k but it is unlikely to get that aggressive price action again. Again, those are just projections based on Bitcoin's 10+ year price action and a certain set of parameters. The future trend doesn't have to follow any of those but all of them bundled together do make a fair average projection indeed. So where do you personally have the next Cycle Top at? Do you think this model can offer a good projection? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! P.S. Because the chart has these bar projections (different colors) plotted and not constant, it may appear distorted based on your screen's/ browser dimensions. The original looks like this below, so if yours doesn't, adjust the vertical/ horizontal axis in order to make it look like this and better understand what is illustrated: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
9
Descending The Well of Hope: Is 4-Digit Bitcoin Next?You may have come across the phrase: "Climbing a wall of worry." This describes the phenomenon whereby the market continues higher and higher, despite overwhelming evidence that it shouldn't be climbing at all. Take a look at the stock market during the pandemic. Imagine climbing up a looming wall, worried that you'll fall off any moment because the wall looks unstable. Riches await on the wall's other side, but of course only if you manage to climb successfully down once you reach the top. This symbolizes a successful long term trade - you are able to successfully navigate the descending portion of your journey by selling at the right time and reducing risk. The Well of Hope is my attempt at illustrating the opposite phenomenon, as it applies to people who remain stubbornly bullish on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. To those individuals, overwhelming evidence seems to suggest that price will eventually go back up. For instance, long term holders continue to accumulate and inflation is out of control (this is what Bitcoin was designed for, right?) Nevertheless, clearly Bitcoin's finite supply is a pretty pointless metric because the Bitcoin code can be forked, and endless other cryptocurrencies can be created, which essentially makes the supply of all cryptocurrencies combined infinite and inflationary, much like the fiat monetary system itself. The market also seems to require inflationary stablecoins to remain liquid. Bitcoiners' complaints about the fiat system are valid, but their solution often results in circular arguments and logical fallacies, in my opinion. There's more on that in some of my other posts. Now, imagine climbing down a well to find water because a bunch of nearby villagers told you a pool full of gold exists at the bottom, but you do not yet have a pulley or bucket to retrieve any water. As you go deeper and deeper, you keep expecting to find water and gold, but you remain empty-handed. Eventually, you are so deep that it is almost impossible to return back to the surface. In the end, you find no gold, even though everyone told you that there would be some. Unfortunately, there isn't much you can do once you reach the bottom, because you expended all your energy getting down there. This differs from the wall of worry because you cannot successfully climb back up. When you climb the wall, you have a choice to let go and fall back at any time, even though you might die or get seriously injured. This is meant to illustrate what I believe to be the inherent value of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which is essentially nothing. There is no Gold at the bottom of the well. Likewise, it's very possible Bitcoin never returns to all-time high. So, how does this translate to the chart? Well, if we are indeed descending a "Well of Hope" with no precious gold at the bottom, then we can expect Bitcoin to complete a full-retrace of its recent bull market rally. Many still hope to purchase Bitcoin at sub-$15k levels, such as $13.8k, $12k, or $10k. However, I think there is a greater than 50% probability that Bitcoin has seen its absolute high in terms of purchasing power. Note: Even if the dollar goes to zero (as many Bitcoin pundits expect) and Bitcoin is worth $5 Million per coin, its purchasing power can still be almost nothing. If the dollar is worthless, than something worth $5 Million is ALSO worthless. This means I think it's more likely Bitcoin continues descending the well of hope, with the next stop being below $10k. The last wave down took BTC from $48.2k to $17.6k - cutting price by almost 2/3rds, or nearly 66%. A similar proportional drop from $24k would place Bitcoin in the $8-9k zone on its next wave down. I have been speculating about a relief rally heading into the final quarter of 2022 for markets, but there is also the possibility this does not materialize, if things fall apart quickly for heavyweight companies this week. As shown on the righthand chart, Bitcoin has failed at both the 9 week EMA and the 200 week MA. This is incredibly bearish. In my last analysis, I wrote about how those resistances must be cleared. Particularly after last week's close, the chart has never looked this bearish in the asset's history. Finding resistance at the 200 wee MA is very troubling indeed. In addition, the daily MACD is dangerously close to flipping back to red, just near the zero line, showing serious failure to produce bullish momentum. Here is my most recent post: I'm also still watching Tron (TRX), which suspiciously still has not dropped from its highs, unlike almost every other crypto out there. Microstrategy has also experienced a harsh rejection at the 200 week MA, as it has been labeled as "overvalued" by investors. It has a long way to fall, should shares collapse in similar fashion to the dotcom bubble pop. The double-whammy of a recession (declining demand for their product) and Bitcoin's collapse could put MSTR in serious trouble. What About The Bullish Scenario? It still exists. In the short term, the futures market seems to be biased to the sell-side, so we could see a short squeeze. Bitcoin must reclaim the 9 week EMA (orange) and the 200 week MA (teal). It also must show a bottoming structure. So far, this resembles previous bear flags. The resistance is incredibly strong. Here is a recent post where I outlined what Bitcoin needs to accomplish in order to look bullish long term again. This is a tall order, and seems very unlikely at the moment. But, as we know, Bitcoin tends to do what most people think is very unlikely. This means we see $100k this year, or we plunge back to $6k and lower. One of the main reasons sustained upside seems unlikely is that the futures market seems to be largely influencing price. Open interest has been leading the market for months now, and these traders are biased to the long side. This tells me the market is being propped up by derivatives, since not enough liquidity exists in the spot market. The lack of liquidity in the spot market is a result of a supply shortage from sellers on exchanges and a lack of dollars on the sidelines due to pressures from inflation and demands from debt amidst rising interest rates. More evidence for this is that open interest has been consistently decreasing as price decreases. If the futures market were biased to the short side, we'd likely see open interest increase as price heads lower. This was something that happened last summer, and what helped me anticipate the short squeeze. Recently, open interest has consistently skyrocketed on every bounce, as traders are eager to time the bottom. This is a very different situation from the summer of 2021. Although....what if there is no bottom? Welcome to the Well of Hope. This is meant for speculation and entertainment only, not as financial advice! This only represents my opinion and feelings at the moment. Before making any significant financial decisions, please consult a professional financial advisor who can work with your own needs, risk tolerance, and financial circumstances. -Victor Cobra
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by VictorCobra
15
Bitcoin – Elliott wave analysisHello, everyone! Bitcoin has not reached our target for the insane short setup, but I closed today all speculative longs. Have only tradevesting part of deposit. I remembered the Elliott wave’s analysis and decided to refresh it today. On the 1D timeframe of the BTCUSDT chart of the WhiteBit exchange we can see the anticipated 12345 Elliott wave’s formation. We have short waves 1 and 2, super impulsive wave 3. I can understand it because of the minimal AO and Acceleration values. The current upward trend channel is very boring – this is the typical wave 4. We can see Bitcoin reached 3 times the 0.23 Fibonacci level, but was unable to break it through. The minimal correction target reached. Moreover if we take a look at the Williams alligator of the 1W timeframe. The price corrected exactly to the green line in got a rejection. It’s maximum target is the red line, but I don’t think the price have enough strength to do it. Also I want the bring to your attention the key fractal level. Bitcoin was also unable to close above it – extreme weakness. Thus according to trading chaos method there are no reasons to grow above the current price and the wave 5 can start right now. If you read my articles you have already known that the divergence with AO and Acceleration is the top-1 signal that the trend is over. I try to be patient and follow my main analysis, but to be honest sometimes it is very difficult because of emotions. Good luck!
Short
by Skyrexio
9
BITCOIN Failed to close 3rd green week but positive signs remainLast week, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) marginally failed to close its 3rd straight bullish 1W (weekly) candle, a feat that hasn't been achieved since the November 08 2021 weekly candle. This isn't ideal as BTC's last big rally (late July - late November 2021) started off with three straight (strong as well) green weeks. Despite this however, there is a growing number of positive indicators showing that this could be a sustainable accumulation period, preceding the start of a rally and the new Bull Cycle. ** The positives ** First and foremost, the price succeeded at closing above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the 2nd straight week. As you see on the chart below, this is essential during Cycle bottom formations and every time the price held above this level in past Cycles, it lead to a rally eventually: Secondly, the 1W MACD just formed a Bullish Cross, the first since late March 2022. Now of course that last pattern led to a new sell-off and Lower Low eventually but was much closer to both the 1D MA200 (yellow trend-line) and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), where the price got rejected. Now those levels are around 33223 and 40625 respectively, so there is much more room to grow before we can discuss about a rejection/ pull-back. Among all the above, we shouldn't forget to acknowledge the fact that Bitcoin has kept the 1W MA300 (red trend-line), which is the basic Support of the Cycle. As you see, on the snapshot above, that was the level that supported the market during the March 2020 COVID (black-swan) event. If it held that huge psychological test, there is on reason not to believe that it won't hold this time as well. ** Some hurdles ** We see the biggest Resistance levels, on the short-term at least, on the Fibonacci patterns drawn. The Fib Channel that is illustrated has kept the price closing below its 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level on 3 straight weekly candles. Similarly, on the horizontal axis, the price has failed to close (broke it on the July 25 candle but failed to close above it) above the 0.236 Fib retracement level (orange) also for 3 straight weeks. It is apparent that this Fib cluster forms a strong Resistance, at least on the short-term. Breaking above it, opens the way for the 0.382 Fib, potentially testing as well the 1D MA200. Rejection on the 0.236 Fib can result in short-term selling back to the June Support, on a similar Double Bottom scenario as in July 2021 and February 2022. Do you think this would still be enough to support the market and start the new rally in September/ October? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
7
Bitcoin long-term view - Stoch RSI cross below 1.00Bitcoin long-term view - Stoch RSI cross below 1.00 (smoothD - orange line) With my chosen indicator settings this event only happened three times in BTC history 1. cross November 2011 - smoothD 0.25 2. cross December 2018 - smoothD 0.65 3. cross July 2022 - smoothD 0.76 After the 1. and 2. cross we had massive gains followed - what will the 3. cross do for us dear Crypto Nation? *not financial advice do your own research before investing
BNC:BLXLong
by Crypto4Everybody
2
BITCOIN - EXTRA BULLISH MAJOR UPDATE 🚀I think this time is ok to FOMO: US printing money to fight inflation .. take a wild guess what that can do to Bitcoin (🚀🚀🚀🚀). Technical analysis: Still in ascending channel. The Top (resistance) is just below 25k. I see 70% chances of breaking over the channel and off to 28k Resistance (our first target as given few weeks ago). Watch the video and take a look at THIS: I think it ended up being Perfect. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by FX_Professor
7
BITCOIN formed a MACD Bearish Cross. Time to prove Bear is over?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has made a confirmed Bearish Cross on MACD on the 1D time-frame. Every such formation within 2022 has so far been extremely bearish, marking a top to a subsequent aggressive price fall. It may be above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and still within a Channel Up but we've seen similar patterns leading to MACD Bearish Crosses, followed by price falls. Currently BTC has failed to break even the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level where it was rejected exactly on July 30 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is intact since December 31 2021, is on the 0.5 Fib level, a strong Resistance. Do you think it is time for Bitcoin to finally invalidate a MACD Bearish Cross and prove that the Bear Cycle is indeed over? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
71
Bitcoin: Conflicting Signals 24K.Bitcoin price action has presented two sell signals within the 22 to 24K resistance zone in recent weeks but without any follow through to potential supports. Does this price action imply strength? Not within this context. Let me explain. The long term trend (since the 69K peak) is still BEARISH. Not one key resistance level has been compromised. Everyone likes to over complicate things and constantly search for reasons and logic. As long as the main resistance levels are in place, Bitcoin is still more vulnerable to LOWER prices. "Why!?" does not matter. Respect the market, don't question price. The key resistance level at the moment is the 22 to 24K AREA. Price has rejected this area multiple times which confirms weakness, but without follow through. While it can be argued that the short term trend is bullish (since the 17K low), when compared to the broader structure, this "bullish" trend can easily turn out to be a small retrace within a broader bearish trend. Do NOT lose sight of that, especially if you are operating on the swing trade or investing time frames. So how to interpret the lack of follow through? This is a summer time lower activity environment. For those with little experience, markets have a tendency to be seasonal in some ways. The summer time months in the U.S. are typically associated with lower volume and less eventful markets. How does this affect Bitcoin? In case you haven't noticed, there is a relationship between the S&P and Bitcoin. So until there is a dramatic enough catalyst or return back to normal activity (4th quarter), it is within reason to anticipate the ranges to hold. That means if a new sell signal develops in Bitcoin within the current resistance, expectations of follow through should be low (that means take profits sooner if you have the chance). Otherwise smaller time frame strategies make more sense here. While it can be argued that a new buy signal is in the process of developing, it carries very little weight on this time frame. That means the risk is very high compared to the potential profit expectations. To keep it simple, if you are new to this game, avoid low probability setups. Learn to trust and respect price. It factors in all the known information in the world. You can't beat an efficient market especially with conventional methods or "logic". Irrationality is one of the main factors that keep retail traders and investors from winning, while at the same time it is one of the few areas where opportunity exits for a retail trader/investor. Recognize charts for their expression of human behavior, because that is the factor that stays the same. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.
EIGHTCAP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
30
BITCOIN following Apple's 2008/09 Bear Fractal. Bottom is in!This is Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the right along with Apple (AAPL) on the left chart on a very interesting comparison on the 1W time-frame. I will keep it short as the picture is quite self-explanatory. As you see, Bitcoin's 2021/22 Bear Cycle has been very similar so far to Apple's 2008/09 Bear Cycle during the Housing Crisis. Following a rough Double Top (1 & 3) they both dropped below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and started slowing down only after breaking the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) but at the same time keeping the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) intact. Both turned their 1W RSI into oversold territory exactly when they broke below the 1W MA200 and recovered above their MA (yellow trend-line). That is where BTC is at currently. For Apple that RSI MA break was the start of a three month consolidation before the parabolic rally that took the stock into the new age of growth of the past 13 years. For comparison purposes I've plotted that same Apple recovery pattern on Bitcoin to give us a rough idea of an estimate. It doesn't have to follow that sequence of course but it makes an interesting projection. Perhaps the most useful conclusion we can draw from the whole comparison is that, assuming investor psychology doesn't differ among different asset classes, with history showing that psychological models in extreme market conditions tend to stay the same, Bitcoin has strong probabilities of already having priced its bottom. What is your opinion on this comparison? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
29