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BITCOIN Closing of the month reveals the start of the rallyThis is Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1M (monthly) time-frame. I am using various indicators to plot the current position relative to past Cycles and the more you add, the closer it looks that the market has bottomed. ** The importance of the LMACD ** As we have 1 week before the end of July, the monthly candle closing can reveal a lot, particularly in terms of the LMACD indicator. As you see in the past two Cycles, then the 1M LMACD histogram turned from dark red into light red, BTC had already priced its Cycle bottom. At the moment, the LMACD is exactly at the point where the past two Cycles bottomed. So giving a light red histogram next Monday (August 01) will most likely confirm the start of this Cycle's Accumulation Phase. That Accumulation Phase, can be fast (2019) or slower (2015). It appears that closing above the 1W MA20 (blue trend-line) is the difference between having a faster or a slower phase into the new rally. ** The Gaussian Channel ** In any case, having held the 1W MA300 as Support as it did twice in 2019 and 2020, the price looks ready for accumulation. An indicator that I have never used on this time-frame, is the Gaussian Channel. However it provides excellent insight because, as you see on the chart, when the price (almost) touched its green trend-line on March 2020 and August 2015 (circles), a strong rally began. Right now this trend-line is closer than ever and if Bitcoin accumulates some more before breaking to the upside, it can hit it by November, if not sooner as it is aggressively rising. In my opinion all the above paint a very promising 2nd half to the year for BTC that can end with an aggressive rally. Do you also see the LMACD as being the key for starting the new phase? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
19
Bitcoin: Trend Reversal In Play?Bitcoin has pushed into the 22 to 24K resistance and appears to be developing a higher low formation. Is this the beginning of a bullish trend? It is too early to arrive at such a conclusion. In this article, I will explain why and what to look for in the coming week. First thing to keep in mind: The broader price structures have yet to be compromised and continue to favor a bear market. The 22 to 24K resistance is the first area that needs to be cleared before I would be open to the greater possibility of higher prices. A buy signal may be in the process of setting up at the moment, but it is appearing in a very conflicted location. It is the LOCATION that carries more weight in this instance, signals can appear ANYWHERE randomly. Until 24K is CLEARED, I will continue to maintain a bearish outlook. The coming week is heavy with economic events and major company quarterly reports. With the yield curve still inverted, not to much has changed in terms of the economic environment and continues to favor a more bearish outcome in the near term. Any surprises resulting from the events this week can act as a very bullish or bearish catalyst and change things VERY quickly. Understand that markets are HIGHLY efficient and mostly random which means NO ONE, no matter what kind of nonsense they throw at you can accurately forecast how this situation will play out. The best we can do is evaluate price structures and gauge a short term probability. And when it changes, YOU CHANGE WITH IT. There is no room for absolute opinions in a market environment that is random. The best way to keep risk to a minimum in this situation is to operate on smaller time frames or stay out completely. Long setups are extremely risky, and while the location is attractive for swing trade short setups, there are none at the moment. Recent sell signals have offered small profits and have not followed through at all which could be an effect of lower than usual activity associated with summer time (this is very typical for stock market in the U.S.). IF you are operating on smaller time frames: The 21,500 AREA is potential minor support and a break and close above 23,250 is a new buy signal. IF price manages to clear 24K this week, then the 28 to 30K area is the NEXT resistance zone to consider. There is NO WAY to know if price will get there. Trades have to be monitored closely, especially in the face of important economic events. Bear market rallies are confusing because they often go against "logic". Markets are IRRATIONAL and can do whatever they want for ANY reason. Learn to TRUST and LISTEN to PRICE NOT PEOPLE OR LOGIC. Being a LISTENER of the market, I am completely open to the possibility of a trend change, BUT the proof has yet to appear. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
25
BITCOIN 1st step into the Bull Cycle successful. One left to go.This week's big development for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been the break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since April 21. On this analysis I compare the patterns of the current Bear Cycle and the past two in an attempt to find if this break can be a structured move into a sustainable recovery. First of all, the time-frame on the candles is 1D (daily) but a lot of MA periods including the RSI and MACD indicators are displayed on the 1W because that prints a more complete picture. As you see the similarities of the current Bear Cycle with the past two are remarkable, despite it being an expanded flat correction as opposed to the other two which where sharp correction patterns. ** The Bear Cycle until now ** The RSI clearly shows that the top of the Cycle was in April 2021. That was followed by a sharp drop and rebound on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), which is consistent with the past two Cycles. After the September - November 2021 pump that broke the sharp correction of the other two, the price quickly resumed the Bear Cycle model, was supported and rebounded near the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) to the 1W MA20 (yellow trend-line) where it was rejected. That initiated the final sell-off sequence of the Cycle, where the capitulation was again (as with the past two Cycles) evident by the 1W MA200 crossing below the 1W MA100. The June 18 bottom has been formed just above the -0.618 Fibonacci extension (counting as 0 the Low of the 1W MA50 test) and that caused a rebound that broke this week above the 1D MA50. As you see on the chart, all this has so far been remarkably consistent with the past Bear Cycles. ** What's next? ** To answer this we naturally have to look at how the past two Cycles traded. Following the 1D MA50 break-out, neither Cycle was able to post a sustainable rally. Instead, it was only when the price broke above the 1W MA20 and (especially in the case of 2015) above the 1W MA50 too, that the market was able to rally into the Bull Cycle. So naturally what we would like to see next to largely confirm a Bull Cycle turnaround, is a break above the 1W MA20, which currently is considerably higher, trading at 32700, but declining rapidly. Until then, we continue to be in an Accumulation Phase. But what do you think about this comparison? Do you need to see a break above the 1W MA20 to confirm the recovery sentiment into a new Bull Cycle or feel that this week's break above the 1D MA50 is strong enough on its own? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
20
Bitcoin is still on the rise. Volume is still up. Daily chartAs you can see the trend is still up on the 1day chart. Getting close to closing above the EMA ribbon cable. Volume is rising. Last time we had this trend started a big change like this was march 24th 2020 where it ran from was when it went from $6674 to $54,961 exactly 1 year later on march 24th 2021. The chart closed above the ribbon on April 24th 2020 which was the start of the big bull run. This time around it looks like we will break above somewhere between July 21th to July 26th if the trend doesn’t change and we stay within the channel. This looks to be the start of the next 2020 type bull run. Zoom in to march 24th 2020 and to july 21st 2022 to see what im talking about. There are yellow dotted trend lines showing the direction.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by buster84
BITCOIN broke above both the 1D MA50 and 1W MA200! What's next?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has now broken above both the 1D MA50 (green trend-line) and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). This is a critical benchmark as it last hit the 1D MA50 on April 21 (3 months ago exactly) and it has been trading below the 1W MA200 since the June 13 1W (weekly) candle (more than 1 month). As I've mentioned before numerous times, since the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) held as Support as it last did during the early March 2020 COVID collapse, a break above those trend-lines would be the first and perhaps most decisive signal that the Bear Cycle has bottomed. ** The TSI and MFI ** Notice how the True Strength Indicator (TSI) and the Money Flow Index (MFI), two key indicators for Bitcoin, has printed the same sequences during both the March 2020 and December 2018 bottoms. The TSI now just needs to make a new Bullish Cross (first since August 2021) while the MFI a break above its Falling Wedge, in order to confirm a new rally similar to those of April 2020 - April 2021 (blue pattern) and February 2019 - June 2019 (green pattern). ** Two possible rallies ahead ** For comparison purposes I've plotted those two Rally Sequences on today's price action. Note that this is just an illustration in an attempt to project the trend's action if the same pattern is repeated. If this is indeed the bottom of the Bear Cycle and the beginning of a new Bull Cycle, then the price is more likely to post the less aggressive rally of early 2019 (which was still much stronger than the previous Bull Cycles) as Bitcoin tends to still accumulate after a market bottom and posts the aggressive rally of the Cycle after the Halving. It is worth noting though that both projections show that they will make contact with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) almost exactly at the level they did when they originally played out. This is remarkable and goes to show that there is indeed a degree of symmetry between phases. So do you think that the break-out above both the 1D MA50 and 1W MA200 has signalled the bottom of the Bear and start of a new Bull Cycle? If yes, what projection is more likely for you, the green to $80000 towards the end of the year or blue to $200000 by mid 2023? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
26