Bitcoin short-term view - bearish divergence - correction likelyBitcoin short-term view
(a) bearish divergence - correction likely
(b) IMO a correction to ~$21.000 would be fine - (volume support, EMA, SMA, FIB50%)
(c) Expect RSI to get in oversold area soon
*not financial advice
do your own research before investing
Bitcoin-btcusd-btc
Bitcoin short-term view - correction likelyBitcoin short-term view - correction likely
BTC is overbought and showing bearish divergence on RSI
Correction should find first support at $21.000 - next lower support at $20.562 where SMA200 and EMA50 (4h chart) are waiting
Have a great day dear Crypto Nation
*not financial advice
do your own research before investing
Bitcoin short-term view - BTC confirmed $21.000 as supportBitcoin short-term view - BTC confirmed $21.000 as support
Next price action resistance at $21.913
A bearish divergence might occur on RSI - recovery even below $21.000 totally healthy dear Crypto Nation
*not financial advice
do your own research before investing
Bitcoin: Bearish Break Likely.Bitcoin is stuck within a lower high consolidation that ranges between the 22K resistance and high 18Ks. Meanwhile, structurally and environmentally, NOTHING has changed. Basically this market is out of play until a new catalyst comes along. Let's talk about which way price is likely to eventually break.
The short term structure is BEARISH and the 22K level has YET to be compromised. This resistance is a LOWER HIGH within the context of the bigger picture. Lower highs often lead to lower lows UNLESS a new piece of information comes into play.
At this time, the broader price structure still favors a test of lows. Along with that, bond yields are inverted which is a bearish sign.
What do treasuries have to do with Bitcoin? An economic recession is bad for the S&P and in case you haven't noticed, Bitcoin is correlated at the moment. On top of that, we have a Federal Reserve that is fighting inflation by supporting a rising rate environment, which further supports a very strong Dollar. These factors do NOT facilitate a bullish and highly speculative environment like we have experienced over the previous two years.
For Bitcoin to rally, (especially to nonsensical levels like some self appointed "authorities" are calling for), the economic environment NEEDS to be encouraging AT LEAST.
Even if Bitcoin manages to break the 22K resistance, it has many more levels to go before it proves that a change of trend is in play. For example, the 28 to 30K level (next major resistance) would have to be cleared at minimum.
I called a short the previous week off the sell signal that appeared near the 22K level. It pulled back into the 18Ks. IF you go back to that report, I shared an update the next day pointing out that it would be wise to lock something in even though there was no conflicting signal at that time.
Since then, a bullish outside bar developed and now price is trying to work its way higher. Could this be the rally everyone is waiting for? Probability is NOT in favor. The rational thing to do is cover the short for whatever you can and WAIT for the next sell signal. Your primary goal should be to mitigate risk, NOT chase profits. Greed is a liability of human nature and most retail traders/investors are not aware they are controlled by it.
If you are new to this game, instead of chasing false dreams and listening to cowards who hide behind fake names proliferate nonsense, take the time to learn how markets work. There is NO hurry, Bitcoin nor the stock market is likely to turn higher any time soon.
In order to make objective and effective decisions in any environment, you need to LISTEN to the market. You NEED to listen to PRICE. Markets are highly random and efficient which means NO ONE knows MORE than the market. That means markets cannot be forecast over long time horizons with any degree of accuracy.
At the same time, it is possible to isolate opportunities on smaller time frames that are associated with a reasonable level of risk. Charts are not perfect by any means, but there is enough information on a chart to make effective choices. Listen to PRICE NOT PEOPLE.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.
Potential Relief Rally, Or Will Bears Win?The unfortunate truth is that, bitcoin looks exhausted. This is the first red week (heiken ashi candles) and 2nd red week (regular candles) we've had, and a beat down from the ATH.
A couple concerns on the chart I see is the MACD is getting close to crossing.
We have also reached the "Pi Cycle Top"
And are tagging the parabolic trend line.
Do we get a surprise rally here or does bitcoin fall into a bear in coming weeks?
RSI needs to hold support.
There's some hope that we reach the 80s.. if a large announcement like WalMart buying bitcoin is released, it might do the trick. Fundamentals for BTC are better than ever right now, but I think that a lot just don't want to be buying btc at these levels, especially the "smart money".
Lets see how it pans out.
Bitcoins Fate.Bitcoin is in a very balanced trading range, happily building the profile we see to the right, we can see the areas of previous balance which has led to the market becoming imbalanced and seeking out fairer prices, we are currently in a balanced state, which is why it is surprising to see so many people trying to pre guess the market by becoming long or short right now, it is simply undecided, market is completing lots and lots of orders here, but the decision to go up or down is not here yet, we need to wait to see if the market is going to drive towards $30k or fall back to precovid levels.
Bitcoin short-term view - BTC at $21.000 resistanceBitcoin short-term view - BTC at $21.000 resistance and bearish divergence with RSI
If price gets rejected next volume support can be found at $20.562
A drop of RSI below 47 more likely IMO - what do you think dear Crypto Nation?
*not financial advice
do your own research before investing
BITCOIN The bottom is in based on RSI-Sine Wave structureThis is a very unique approach on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) where I take into consideration the wave length of the RSI on the 1W time-frame in an attempt to identify potential correlations with Cyclical behavior. The result is striking and aligns almost perfectly with Cycle Bottoms.
The first step is to turn to the 1W RSI and calculate the middle of the wave length that starts on one bottom and ends on the next. It is interesting to notice how the waves overlap as they contain all of the RSI action. This gives us the top of the wave which in candle terms it is far from the top of the Cycle. In fact it is at the start of the parabolic rise of the Bull Cycle.
If we take the Sine Wave tool and draw the peak on those RSI peaks, we see that the bottom of the Sine Waves on each BTC Cycle is almost on the actual bottom. And for the current Cycle that was on last week's (1W) candle. With the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) supporting so far, all the price action needs to do in order to confirm that is break above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) below which we're trading for the past month.
Do you think the bottom is in for Bitcoin? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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#Bitcoin short-term view - #BTC caught between SMA200 and EMA50Bitcoin short-term view - BTC caught between SMA200 and EMA50 (4h chart)
Next target after breaking SMA200 is $21.000
Next lower support if we break down through EMA50 (blue line) is the price action support at $20.137
Wish you all a great day
*not financial advice
do your own research before investing
Bitcoin short-term view - will price hold $19.892Bitcoin short-term view - will price hold $19.892 - ATH December 2017?
A nice BTC pump after CTI announcement yesterday - but EMA50 (4 h chart) was a strong resistance again
Also RSI needs to find support for another leg up IMO
What do you think dear Crypto Nation?
*not financial advice
do your own research before investing
Bitcoin Dominance ( Altcoins More Dump Soon So Be Ready ) Bitcoin Dominance Chart Update:-
BTC Dominance currently trading at 43.80%
And this area is Perfect Retest Area as I already mentioned in Previous Post also.
So Now I am expecting Upward move toward 50% Dominance Level.
So If Bounce and Go toward 50% then Altcoins will be bearish and One More Bloodbath can expect.
So If Dominance Above 43% then Not good For Altcoins.
Below 43% We can expect Altcoins sessions but Not Not good so Stay away from Altcoins.
But One more thing I am tracking at this Time.
If Dominance will increase then Bitcoin Price move Up Side.
Mean Currently Bitcoin Dominance = Proportional to Bitcoin Price.
Red Area = Blood Bath in Altcoins.
Below Red Zone= Good For Altcoins.
Resistance:- 48%/56%/62%
Support:- 43%
Keep watch before open any trades.
BTC Daily TA Neutral BullishBTCUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 51% BTC, 49% Cash. * SELL-OFF WATCH. The US June CPI report was released this morning and surpassed the 8.8% market consensus estimate with a 9.1% reading (Core CPI exceeded the 5.7% consensus estimate with a 5.9% reading). Cryptos, Equities, Treasuries, and Commodities initially sold off on the news but then came off of intraday lows to close the session flat or slightly up; all while USDX came off of a 20 year high of $108 in today's session . Logically, the Yield Curve (10 yr Treasury note yield fell below 2 yr Treasury note yield) inverted to levels not seen since 2007; which is prompting institutions like Bank of America to call for a 'mild recession' in 2022 . Fed Funds Rate Futures are currently at 97.50, implying that markets expect a 100bps rate hike on 07/27 to get the EFFR (Effective Federal Funds Rate) from 1.58 (current) to 2.5; the current probability of this happening two weeks from now is around 70%. That said, it's still premature to assume that this high-CPI rally isn't a short squeeze because there isn't enough current data to support that inflation has peaked.* Price is currently testing $19417 support after forming a Double Top (Hidden Bearish Divergence with RSI + Stochastic) at $21.5k. Volume is Moderate and currently on track to break a three day streak of seller dominance if it is able to close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $22.5k, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 39 after bouncing off the uptrend line from 06/18 at 34, the next resistance is at 42.41. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down as it begins to form a trough at 44. MACD remains bullish but is trending down slightly as it forms a soft peak at -869 minor resistance; if it crosses below -1160 it would be a bearish crossover, the next support is at 30. ADX is currently trending down slightly and is forming a soft trough at 30 as Price is attempting to rally off of $20k, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX is to start trending up as Price goes up, this would be bullish but if ADX continues trending down as Price continues up this would be mildly bearish. If Price is able to defend support at $19417, the next likely target is a retest of the one-month high at $22k before potentially testing $24180 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down here then it will potentially retest the uptrend line from April 2017 at ~$15k as support for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (one clear close below) $19417.
BITCOIN Clash of theories and the possibility of 10K as bottomBitcoin (BTCUSD) is on the 4th straight week of sideways trading following the mid June low. By doing so, it reached the bottom (Higher Lows) trend-line of a Channel Up pattern that fits perfectly BTC's price action since April 2013. With the LMACD hitting the Support trend-line of Feb 2015, all this looks like a Cycle bottom but let's examine this more carefully with the help of additional indicators.
** The Channel and its extremes **
As you see on this chart, the price action has broken above the Channel Up only twice these 9 years and that was during the formation of the November 2013 and December 2017 Cycle Tops. Those Bullish extremes took place exactly on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. There hasn't yet been a break below the bottom of the Channel but it is possible to do so if the price action fails to hold the Higher Lows trend-line in the coming weeks.
** The Bearish extreme argument to $10000 **
If it does fail, then we may very well see the first Bearish extreme and what better candidate for a bottom than the symmetrical Fibonacci level of -0.5. Bottoming there makes a perfect fit for an approximately -86% drop from the Cycle Top, which is a consistent correction percentage with all previous Bear Cycles. That would pull Bitcoin down to marginally below the 10k USD level.
** The LMACD **
As mentioned before the LMACD is on the Support level that marked both previous Cycle Bottoms. If this fails, it could be a first indication that we will be going for that first Bearish extreme of the Channel. On the bullish side though, if it holds, it validates this historic pattern which on the upside has two Lower Highs trend-lines that shape Cycle Tops. The oldest one that started in June 2011 has projected all Highs below the last two Cycle Tops. Since Dec 2017 it is the Diverging Lower Highs trend-line that marks the actual Cycle Tops. As a result, if the LMACD Support holds, keep an eye for a rather vast visit to the 2011 LH line for a first rally high similar to June 2019.
But what do you think about that? Do you expect the Channel to hold or go for a -0.5 Fib Bearish extreme of around 10000 USD completing a -86% drop? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin short-term view - now we have to break Dec ATH 2017Bitcoin short-term view - now we have to break Dec ATH 2017
After BTC fell lower the support at $19.280 seems to hold and now price is near December ATH at $19.892
Also RSI must get above resistance - can get difficult in short-term
*not financial advice
do your own research before investing
BTC/USDT : Possible scenarios in every timeframesBINANCE:BTCUSDT BINANCE:BTCUSDTPERP FTX:BTCUSD BITFINEX:BTCUSD BYBIT:BTCUSD BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BITMEX:XBTUSD
Hello everyone 😃
Before we start to discuss, I'll be so glad if you share your opinion on this post's comment section and hit the like button if you enjoyed it!
Are you'll ready for a $BTC's analysis tour?
Follow me in 3 Charts...
In 15Minutes Time-Frame, $BTC has formed a bullish cup&handle and the neckline has been located on $19500 - $19600.
- So if we get the closings above $19600, Then the breakout will be confirmed and bias could change into bullish, In terms of that; The market can climb to $19925.
- Otherwise, If we get the rejection below the marked blue zone, Then It's very possible for us to locate our Short towards $18800, Once it gets the hold below $19300.
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In the bigger picture, We have another two possible scenarios, In continuation of our last scenarios!
- As you can see, $BTC has broken below the last week's low and it's total bearish in the first view, But there'll be always a possible deviation on every break.
So, If we get the closings above $20000, Then we can confirm the deviation and our second Long towards $22000 will be triggered...
- Also, The bearish phase is still on, So if we get the closings below $18700, Then we can lay on our Shorts again and hold them till $16800.
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In our biggest picture today, We can see that the last two analyzes have a continuation relation together and this chart has the last relation with all of the two before!
- Currently, $BTC is moving in a bearish pennant, and in terms of a break below, It'll fall again as much as the pole has marked.
So, If we get the closings below $18600 or better to say $17600, Then we can confirm our possible dive to $15400.
- But also, There can be a pullback scenario as $BTC's still moving into the pennant.
So, If we get the closings above $23400, Then we can locate our Longs till $28550.
Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support us with your likes and comments!
Attention: this isn't financial advice we are just trying to help people with their vision.
Have a good day!
@Helical_Trades
Bitcoin peak VPVR & Peak Volume could mean bottomBoth the VPVR is showing very strong support right now as well as volume for BTCUSDT on Kucoin and other exchanges is highest it's been for a long time. This hump in the VPVR wants to keep price there, despite all the bearish sentiment, I think we might hover around here for a few more weeks, maybe a little lower. Not financial advice.