Bitcoin's Path: From Past Performance to 2025 ProspectsConsider the journey of Bitcoin: from its humble beginnings valued at mere pennies to surpassing $60,000 over the past fifteen years. While many foresee Bitcoin's continued ascent over the next decade and a half, what about its trajectory in the near future?
Let's delve into some speculation about where Bitcoin might be headed by 2025. Despite its notorious price volatility, Bitcoin has followed a surprisingly consistent pattern since its inception in 2009, cycling through roughly four-year phases. These cycles align with Bitcoin's halving events, which occur every 210,000 blocks added to its blockchain. Each halving event reduces Bitcoin's inflation rate by half, creating a supply shock that historically drives its price upward, even if demand remains steady.
Typically, this four-year cycle unfolds predictably. It begins with a bear market phase, as observed in 2022, marked by a sharp decline from a peak. The subsequent year often brings a recovery phase, akin to the upward trend seen in 2023. The third year, which includes the halving (as seen in April), usually witnesses significant price increases due to anticipation of reduced supply. If history repeats itself, the fourth year—2025 in this scenario—tends to see substantial gains for Bitcoin.
While no outcome is guaranteed, Bitcoin appears to be adhering to its historical cycle. Assuming this pattern persists, we can speculate on its 2025 price based on past performance. Let's first consider 2024, given Bitcoin's recent halving in April.
Halving events have a profound impact on Bitcoin's price. After the first halving in 2012, Bitcoin surged 119%. Four years later, in 2016, it climbed 93%. Following the 2020 halving, it soared by 174%. On average, Bitcoin has historically increased by approximately 125% during halving years. This historical context sets the stage for projecting Bitcoin's trajectory into 2025.
If Bitcoin were to grow by 125%, starting from its price at the beginning of 2024, a $99,000 Bitcoin by the end of the year would be a reasonable expectation. Considering Bitcoin has already appreciated by approximately 60% this year, achieving another 60% increase to meet historical norms might seem significant. However, Bitcoin has demonstrated in the past that it can achieve such gains in a matter of months.
If 2024 follows this trajectory, a near-$100,000 Bitcoin to start off 2025 would be impressive and present a compelling investment opportunity. Historical data suggests that the full impact of Bitcoin's halving event typically unfolds in the year following the halving.
After Bitcoin's first halving in 2012, it surged by an extraordinary 840% in 2013. Following the 2016 halving, it saw a 331% increase in 2017. Then, after the 2020 halving, it rose by a solid 174%. On average, Bitcoin has historically gained around 400% during these post-halving years. Projecting from a starting point of $99,000 at the beginning of 2025, a 400% increase could potentially elevate Bitcoin's price to nearly $500,000 by the end of the year.
It's essential to note that past performance does not guarantee future results. However, the continuation of Bitcoin's established four-year cycle remains compelling. The full impact of the halving typically takes at least a year to materialize. Even if Bitcoin falls short of the average gains seen in post-halving years in 2025 or if the cycle deviates, Bitcoin's unique attributes—such as its finite supply of 21 million coins, industry-leading decentralization, and robust security—suggest it holds significant long-term potential compared to other assets.
Bitcoin has established itself as the quintessential cryptocurrency, poised to continue its journey of price appreciation for years to come.
Bitcoin-btcusd-btc
BITCOIN on the most critical 1DMA50 test. Hard rally if it holdsBitcoin (BTCUSD) is testing today the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since July 19, on the most important 'break-and-pullback' re-test since October 11 2023!
That was the last time BTC re-tested the 1D MA50 as a Support after a recent break-out, following the April 14 2023 - September 11 2023 Bearish Leg of the 21-month Channel Up that started back at the bottom of the last Bear Cycle in November 2022.
Despite marginally breaking below it on the re-test, it managed to sustain candle closings above it and that kickstarted the October 2023 - March 2024 rally. As a result, we expect a similar rally to start if the same closing conditions hold, which will technically be the Channel's new Bullish Leg that may finally hit the $100k psychological benchmark. It has to be said also, that next week's Fed Rate Decision or at least a hint towards the September meeting will undoubtedly have a huge impact on it.
But what do you think? Will the 1D MA50 hold again and initiate that rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Bitcoin - Bulls Woke UpBitcoin finally gained bullish momentum after forming a bullish divergence on the daily timeframe on the RSI and breaking the downtrend line (and SMMA), I believe we may see a correction of this movement in the short term, but most likely we will reach 70k again in the coming days/weeks.
The German government has completed the sale of all Bitcoins, leaving this asset free to return to its Bull trend. (less selling pressure)
BITCOIN Will Keep Growing! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
BITCOIN is going up now
And the coin broke the key
Horizontal level of 63,500$
Then made a retest and
Shot upwards again which
Reinforces out local bullish
Bias and makes us expect
A further move up
Buy!
Like, comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Bitcoin: Watch Retrace 55K Area.Bitcoin has retraced back to the 60K resistance (as anticipated by previous scenario). As a previous major support level it is likely to act as a new resistance within this broader range bound structure. While there is no confirmation or reason to sell at this time, the 60K to 62K area still serves as a potential bearish reversal point at least for the shorter time horizon (coming week). Such a location can offer aggressive short opportunities for traders who employ lower time frame strategies. The key in these situations is CONFIRMATION along with LOW expectations.
As important reminder, markets are MOSTLY RANDOM. Price adjusts as new information is processed by the MARKET, NOT what you "think" is going to unfold. My goal is to isolate a small range of scenarios that are more likely to unfold over the next week or two. These scenarios are based upon the broader trend and historical inflection points. These data points CANNOT forecast the future with any accuracy but they can help to assign probabilities. When you are dealing with probabilities, that means there is a chance you can be WRONG. Since the chance of being wrong is about 50%, RISK must be carefully assessed in order to determine if a trade is worth taking. The professional looks to minimize and control risk while the novice focuses only on potential profit (and dreaming about Ferraris).
In the case of Bitcoin in the 60K area, based on previous activity, there is a greater chance of a minor retrace. This situation is attractive for smaller time frame shorts which require specific confirmation (Trade Scanner Pro). It is important NOT to get carried away with where such a short can go in the future. If you notice, it is always after an extreme move, (like the test of 53K) all of the "experts" start calling for 45K, and not a reversal to 60K resistance. My Trade Scanner Pro signaled a long on the hourly off the 53K support that was worth 3K points for 1.6K point risk.
It is also important to note that the general area between 52.5 and 56.5 is a proportional reversal zone (compared to the previous 56K low). This is not something I can explain here in detail but the key take away is: this area should be considered a high probability zone for BULLISH reversals. Which brings me to this point: Any retest of this area followed by a bullish confirmation not only offers a high probability swing trade long, but one with great potential. What makes this most attractive is the relatively low amount risk associated with this scenario (see arrow). Think about it: which location carries greater risk to longs, 70K (near range high) or 53K (near range low within broader bullish structure)?
The most common novice mistake I see is "reacting" to what you see. This is a game where the reality of what is actually moving price is hidden from us. Reacting means you are rooting decisions and taking risk on information that is typically irrelevant to the real catalyst. We are often fooled into believing the "real" catalyst is the news at hand, etc. Which is usually only part of a much more complex puzzle. Instead of trying to solve the puzzle, I look for the least amount but more effective information points to assess probabilities and risk, without paying ANY attention to outside factors such as news, expert opinions, complex charts, etc. Less is more in a game where 99% of the info you consume is not relevant.
So for the coming week, I anticipate a minor retrace, possible double bottom (see illustration). Good for aggressive shorts for traders on small time frames. At the same time, I do respect the possibility that price may continue through 60K and potentially reach the 62K to 63K area which can be good for momentum continuation patterns. Which scenario you choose and what expectations to associate will all depend on your style, personal risk parameters and time frame.
Like I demonstrated in a recent meeting, first you choose the type of trade you are looking for, day trade or swing trade. That decision BEFORE even looking at a chart will shape how you assess risk, potential and context for the entirety of your personal decision making process. This is NOT about forecasting the future, its about assigning probabilities and then LETTING THE MARKET confirm or NOT. If you "think" you lose because the market is ALWAYS right.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITCOIN A 'game' of angles...This isn't the first time we post this chart on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and the relevance that its Cyclical Angles have but it is an added step with its RSI and phases.
We are on the 1W time-frame where as you can see every Cycle has been so far approximately 10 degrees (°) less than the previous one from top to bottom. The 1st Cycle (2012 - 2013) was 54°, the 2nd (2015 - 2017) was 42° and the 3rd (2019 - 2021) was 30°. Based on this progressive sequence, we can expect the current one to top at around 20° from the bottom.
Even though the price is on a declining angle rate, the 1W RSI is remarkably stable. As you can see, every Bull Cycle is around 25°, so there is no reason to expect the current one to diverge from this. This way when the RSI tops, we will now when to sell and sit back with the profits until the next Bear Cycle bottom.
On top of all the above, we see that according to the Bull Cycle phases classification, Bitcoin is still within its Accumulation Phase (blue Rectangle), so we haven't yet seen its most aggressive part, the Take-off Phase (orange).
But what do you think? Are we about to see that parabolic rally of the Take-off Phase and if so, is this 'Angle' analysis accurate at predicting when to take profit? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
BITCOIN Massive Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
BITCOIN broke the support
Cluster of the rising support
And the horizontal support
Around 57,700$ and the
Breakout is confirmed
So we are bearish biased now
And we will be expecting
A further move down
Sell!
Like, comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
HAPPY JULY 4th with BITCOIN hitting the 1D MA200 after 9 months!Happy July 4th everyone! A little break from the traditional stock markets but not for crypto. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) in particular, just hit and broke below its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in almost 9 months (October 16 2023)!
Naturally this is a very strong long-term Support level and it is even more obvious on this 1D chart, where BTC's current consolidation is similar to the one from mid- April 2023 to mid-July 2023 (blue Rectangle).
With the long-term pattern being a Fibonacci Channel Up and the 1D MACD forming a sequence similar to the bottom formation that started on August 27 2023, Bitcoin is most likely entering the long-term Support Zone.
The ultimate Support level is the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) but we expect to come close to that not straight away vertically but in the next month while the price might trade sideways in similar fashion to September 2023.
In any case, since the November 2022 market bottom, this kind of distance from the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), has been the most optimal buy entry and including the current one, we've only had 4 such opportunities.
But what do you think? Is this the right opportunity to buy heavily again on Bitcoin? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
$BTC Bitcoin Hopium or No-pium?CRYPTOCAP:BTC price in ascending triangle pattern!
Current Price: $65100
Major resistance around $71,500
More precisely between 71500 - 73000
From my previous post $bitcoin lost a major support around 67000 and found support around 64300. Support around 64300 has not broken the angled support of the ascending triangle.
It is important that bitcoin does not break this trend line else next levels of support are around 60600 and 57900.
If 64300 remains support and trendline is intact then 67000 will be tested as now resistance! Waiting to see what happens at these levels.
What do you think? Hopium or Nopium?
BITCOIN History rhymes and calls for as high as $300k!This is a post Halving update to the 'Fibonacci Channel blueprint' analysis we've made almost a year ago. The price action has been even more aggressive than what we expected so relevant adjustments had to be made.
On this chart, we yet again rely on the long-term time-frames of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) for a more meaningful illustration of its historic Cycles. Those are patterns that have repeated themselves over and over again, with some variations of course based on the current market conditions.
** The Fibonacci Channels **
Right now the price has completed 4 months of consolidation following the early March All Time High (ATH), always above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). This consolidation is consistent with all previous post-Halving price actions as BTC always traded sideways and accumulated in the weeks after the Halving, in preparation for the Parabolic Rally, the Cycle's most aggressive phase.
The previous Cycles topped near Fibonacci trend-lines of prior Cycle Channels. For example the December 2017 Cycle Top was formed just below the bottom (Fib 0.0) of the orange Fibonacci Channel that started from the previous Cycle bottom. The November 2021 Top was formed just below the middle (Fib 0.5) of the blue Fibonacci Channel. This could be a +0.5 Fib progression and in that case the Top of the current Cycle might be just below the top (Fib 1.0) of the black Fibonacci Channel that started on the December 2018 bottom.
At the same time, another condition that it 'needs' to fulfil is being just below the 0.0 Fib of the Blue Channel, similar to what happened in December 2017 (just below Fib 0.0 of the orange Channel).
** The Halvings and $200k **
The 1.0 Fib is currently a little under $300000, and as we mentioned after the consolidation of each Halving, Bitcoin posts the most aggressive (parabolic) rally of the Bull Cycle. So that leads us to assume that the Top of the current Bull Cycle will be at least $300k. To give a relative sense of pathing, we have plotted the 'post Halving rallies' of the previous three Cycles on the current Channel starting on Halving 4.
As you can see, the orange (2013) and black (2020 - 2021) lines are more aggressive than the purple (2016 - 2017) but the latter is the one that, as we've posted numerous times, the current Cycle has the most similarities with. If Bitcoin follows the purple price action within the black Fibonacci Channel, then it should reach $100k by December 2024 and $300k by August 2025. If instead it transitions to the more aggressive Cycle models, then it could reach those levels much earlier.
But what do you think? Is $300k realistic within the current Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
BITCOIN Local Bullish Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
BITCOIN made a bullish
Rebound from the long-term
Rising support and we are now
Seeing a bullish breakout of
The resistance cluster of
The falling and horizontal
Resistance around 62k$
So we are locally bullish
Biased and we will be expecting
A further move up
Buy!
Like, comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
BITCOIN Will people regret not buying at this stage?Around this time last year (see chart below), we analyzed yet again the similarities of Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) current Cycle with the one in 2014 - 2017. In fact we were among the fist channels in late 2022 to bring that up as a strong possibility and as you can see Bitcoin didn't fail to deliver:
We have entered however a stage where, as the title says, people could regret if they haven't bought already as it might be the last opportunity to do so on such low prices. The time-frame on both charts is 3D and as you can see, the MA50 (blue trend-line) has been the most optimal buy entry throughout the 2015 - 2017 Bull Cycle.
If the similarities continue to unfold between the two Cycles, then last week's breach of the MA50, should be the best buying opportunity at this stage. As you can see, we are proportionally at the end of the blue elliptical pattern which in early 2017 consolidated around and mostly below the former All Time High (ATH) level and then started the Parabolic Rally.
Do you think the current MA50 touch has marked the start of this rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
BTC - A Healthy Pullback or a Sign of More to Come?Hey fellow crypto enthusiasts! Let's dive into Bitcoin's recent price action and what we can expect in the coming months.
The Correction Phase: Why It's Not All Doom and Gloom
First off, don't panic about the current correction phase. After the halving, a correction was not just expected. It’s healthy! Think of it as Bitcoin catching its breath before the next big sprint. We're seeing an ABC correction pattern, which savvy traders will recognize as a typical and necessary, market movement.
Timing the Market: When to Make Your Move
So, when’s this correction likely to wrap up? Our crystal ball suggests somewhere between July and August/September. This is the perfect window to dollar-cost average (DCA) into your positions. By buying a fixed dollar amount of BTC at regular intervals, you can average out your entry price, reducing the impact of volatility.
Long Positions: Entering long positions in the 50000-52245 range could be a smart move, considering the support levels and the bullish outlook post-summer.
Key Levels to Watch: The Golden Zone
Here’s where it gets interesting. The big kahuna level to keep an eye on is 50K. Not only is it a psychological level, but it’s also where several technical indicators converge. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the smaller wave sits at $52,245, while the 0.382 Fibonacci level of the entire 491 day bull run is at $51,690. This zone also hosts an old trading range, known as a bullish order block. Translation? This area is packed with historical significance and potential support.
Fibonacci Levels:
Fib 0.618 of the smaller wave is at $52,245.
Fib 0.382 of the entire 491-day bull run is at $51,690.
Ichimoku Cloud: Your Support Safety Net
On the daily timeframe, the Ichimoku cloud’s edge (custom settings) aligns around the 50K mark, offering additional support. It's like having an extra safety net below a tightrope walker.
Altcoins: The Unsung Heroes
Don't forget about altcoins! Many have pulled back significantly, with some seeing 60-80% corrections. This is a golden opportunity to DCA into altcoins and position yourself for potential gains. Remember, during market corrections, altcoins often offer lucrative entry points for those looking to diversify.
Wrapping Up: The Bigger Picture
While the correction phase may seem daunting, it’s a natural part of the market cycle. The key levels around 50K-52K are not just numbers, they’re strategic entry points. With the support of the Ichimoku cloud there’s a lot to be optimistic about as we move towards the end of summer.
What do you think? Are you positioning yourself for the end of the correction? Drop your thoughts and let’s discuss!
With a clearer understanding of Bitcoin's correction phase and the key levels to watch, you're now better equipped to navigate the crypto waters. Happy trading!
BITCOIN Are you going to be able to handle this rally???Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is consolidating on the exact symmetrical spot it did relative to the previous Cycles. The blue circle marks that position historically and is that consolidation that always preceded the Bull Cycle's most aggressive part: the Parabolic Rally.
The Cycle bottom-to-bottom time range is fairly consistent to 1400 days and has been the bottom-to-top of the last two to 1064 days. Having broken above the cyclical Lower Highs (blue trend-line) on February, BTC historically posts only Higher Highs from here. The top can be anywhere within the $150k - $300k range for this Cycle, but as this chart shows, the important thing is to time it as closely as possible.
But what do you think? Is Bitcoin about to experience the start of the new Parabolic Rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
BITCOIN Just flashed the strongest Buy Signal of the Bull Cycle!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) turned oversold on its 1D RSI on Monday and yesterday immediately rebounded back above the 30.00 RSI oversold barrier. The previous 3 times it did that exact same sequence since November 09 2022, it was an indication that the bottom was formed and a structured rise / Channel Up would follow.
Technically we can claim that this is the strongest/ most consistent Buy Signal of the whole Bull Cycle so far. Those 3 times turned out to be the most optimal long-term buy entries for investors that buy on dips.
The Gaussian Channel shows that at worst, we are looking at a bottom formation process/ consolidation of another 2 months (as BTC did from August 17 2023 to October 16 2023) but the upside on this Fibonacci Channel Up is significant, with a repeat of the lowest % rise these past 2 years (+91.05%) giving us a minimum Target of $110000.
Do you agree with that? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
BITCOIN Hit 60k! Is the bleeding finally over?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) followed the medium-term June bearish forecast and as we projected on the following 2 analyses (see charts below), made the expected correction on the Support Zone around 60k:
Now the market has entered into a medium-term buy opportunity again and once we get confirmation from the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), it will be a long-term one too. The May 01 Low and ultimate Support level is at 56550.
As you can see the 4H MA50 (red trend-line) has been resisting throughout the majority of the Channel Down/ corrective wave but the Resistance and true bullish confirmation was last time given (May 15) when the price broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As the top chart above shows, last year's accumulation phase (green) took another 2 months (August 17 - October 16 2023) to rise after the price broke below the 4D MA50, so we may see real movements at the end of the Summer when the price hits the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Bull Cycle's Channel Up.
In any event, BTC is on levels that long-term investors start consider buying again. Our standard medium-term Target is $72000. Note also that the 1D RSI is massively oversold at 25.50, last time it was this low was 10 months ago (on August 26 2023).
But what do you think about this price action? Is Bitcoin a solid buy now that it hit 60k again? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Bitcoin: Impulse Break Now What?Bitcoin price has violated the wave i overlap that I have been writing about in previous weeks. This means the lower magnitude impulse structure is no longer valid and reduces the probability of a wave v higher in the near term (which is why I removed the labels from my chart). Based on this price action, I am anticipating the continuation of the complex consolidation that this market has been in since the peak in March. Since the long term trend is still bullish, it is a good idea to watch RANGE LOWS for bullish reversal opportunities in the coming weeks.
The current momentum continues to be bearish. I wrote specifically about inside bars appearing the week before, and there are another two present as I write this (see arrow). These are momentum continuation patterns which means at least over the next couple of days prices are likely to test the 62K to 60K support zone (see illustration on chart).
While situations like this may be uneventful for investors and larger time frame traders, there are ample opportunities on intraday time frames. My trade scanner alone has been excelling in this environment because of the reversal signals off of the supports. Having such a system or well defined strategy in place not only offers a clear suggestion on when to get in, but more importantly when to EXIT the market in this highly RANDOM environment.
IF 60K is broken this week, it will increase the probability of a test of the consolidation low which is 56K. These are the kind of scenarios to consider when looking to increase your investment exposure. Again there is NO WAY to know if the market will choose this. This game has NOTHING to do with forecasting the future. It is about BEING PREPARED for a RANGE of possibilities that the market may present. While at the same time ALWAYS accounting for the associated RISK.
Opinions often ruin accounts. It is better to evaluate then let the market validate, otherwise you REEVALUATE. This thought process is much more effective in a market environment for one simple reason: markets are MOSTLY RANDOM. I repeat this a lot and while the words are easy to understand, applying this concept to your decision making framework it not. Emotions, fear of missing out and other herd behaviors are what make you susceptible to the irrelevant opinions of others. The BEST source of market information is THE MARKET.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITCOIN Is it just a giant Cup and Handle that we couldn't see??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame resembles a giant Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern started from the top of the previous Bull Cycle. Even though this is a valid technical pattern, it may have gone ignored by some as traders tend to focus either on shorter term price action or cyclical structures that are often repeated from Cycle to Cycle.
It is undeniable though that the C&H principles are applied on this chart almost to the last little detail and the pattern is now in the process of completing its Handle, in the form of a Channel Down.
How low can it go before completed, largely depends (in our opinion) on which of the following MA periods will hold: the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) or the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line)?
The 1D MA200 provided the earliest Support of the current Bull Cycle on the week of March 06 2023, in fact it was an excellent 'touch-and-rebound' wick. The 1W MA50 has been supporting since the March 13 2023 break-out and came closer to the price action on the week of September 11 2023.
What seems even more useful/ reliable than the above, is the expected % rise after the bottom is made. As you can see, every since the November 2022 Bear Cycle bottom, Bitcoin has had 3 expansion legs, ranging from +91% to +99%. Starting from the first, each has been -4% to -5% less than the previous.
As a result, assuming the 1D MA200 holds and the Handle is completed there, we can expect the next Expansion Leg to reach the $100k - $110k Target Zone.
But what do you think? Which MA will hold, the 1D MA200 or 1W MA50? And what will your Target be after? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇