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Bitcoin: How to Trade around $20 000? The price stayed above $20 000 during the weekend and we can consider it as a bullish sign. RSI and MACD support the bullish sentiment and the further market movement will depend on the Stock market and the main Indices. I would consider 2 models, as usual. Bullish Model We need to keep the price above $20 000. Any reversal and false breakout signals around this key support can be used for opening long positions in the hourly time frames. Stop orders must be placed below the local swing lows. The main profit target is 50MA and the downtrend line of the local price channel. It is the strong resistance. IF the price breaks it, the 2nd profit target should be around $28 000 and the upper line of the main price channel. Bearish Model We need to see a breakout below $20 000 just to see the strength of the bears. This downward movement will be supported by the fundamental factors and a possible wish from the manipulator to cheat retail investors. The bears will have to update the daily swing low and it may give additional bearish pressure for the whole crypto market. It is possible to go short using the daily and hourly time frames. All short trades must have stop orders above the key swing highs. The main target for the bears will be $14 000 support. If they can reach it rather quickly and there won’t be enough activity from the bullish side, the next target may be $10 000 as a good round number level. I would plan exact trades considering these models. And of course I would use the Multi Market analysis as now, the Stock market influences the crypto market a lot. I have to remind you that the message above is not a Financial Advice. Just share with you my thoughts. I will be grateful if you support my work by smashing the LIKE button and a comment below. I read all comments and they are amazing) Also, there is an interesting situation for Bitcoin in the weekly time frame. Just show me you interest, through the feedback, and I will write a post about the key signals from the weekly chart. Thank you!
by DLavrov
10
BITCOIN Consistent to previous Cycles. The ultimate comparisonThis is a complete mapping of Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles from their previous top to the next one (with the exception of the first) all displayed on top of another: Cycle 1 (green trend-line), Cycle 2 (red), Cycle 3 (blue), Cycle 4 (black) and the current one Cycle 5 (orange). ** Diminishing Returns ** As you see, first of all, this showcases the Theory of Diminishing Returns, which suggests that as the market grows and higher adoption is achieved, BTC will show less and less returns in each Cycle. Every Cycle Top has been lower from the previous one. ** Cycle Convergence - Divergence ** Secondly, all Cycles particularly during their Bear Phase and for a short time after, tend to follow a common path. The illustration on this analysis is very clear as it starts with each Cycle's Bear Phase and you can see that when they diverge, they converge again quickly. The current Bear Phase is the longest in history, as so far it is 4 weeks longer (time-frame is on the 1W) than Cycle 4. ** Halvings ** It is well known that the Halvings are the catalysts in each Cycle that start its most aggressive part, the Parabolic Rally. The next one is projected for March 2024. This could mean that we may have almost 2 years of limited action and volatility (in Bitcoin terms) until the real rally begins. Of course this doesn't mean that the All Time High won't break until then, most likely it will and most likely a strong mini-rally may follow after its bottom is achieved. ** What's next for the current Cycle? ** If we compare the current Cycle (5) with Cycle 3 we can see that the Convergence - Divergence Model is holding. So far when Cycle 5 converged, it immediately diverged. Right now it is converging to Cycle 4 and if it is modelled after Cycle 3, the price will most likely turn sideways for the next two months in an attempt to converge and make contact with Cycle 4. This delay is because, as I've first mentioned in the crypto space, the current Bear Market is the 'smoothest' in history. In conclusion, Bitcoin tends to follow the steps of the previous Cycles. A bottom here is very likely, as is a smooth sideways transition to September and Q3. Depending on the global macro-economic conditions in the markets, we should re-evaluate at the time, as a favorable environment may give a rally similar to February - June 2019, while a negative environment (depression) may break the model downwards. So what do you think? Does this Cycle regression model offer any useful conclusion as to where Bitcoin might bottom and trend in the future? Is Cycle 3 the greatest fit for the current one? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
58
SPX500 overbought and near SMA resistance - more room for BTCSPX500 overbought and near SMA resistance - more room for BTC But a likely correction of S&P500 or Nasdaq100 should act as a bearish filter for possible Crypto moves in short-term Otherwise a flat correction near the SMA200 of traditional markets can also occur and reduce pressure on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Co. What do you think? Drop me a nice comment if you'd like me to analyze any other cryptocurrency. *not financial advice do your own research before investing
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by Crypto4Everybody
1
Bitcoin: 17K Low Test This Week?Bitcoin managed to stay above the 20K level for the week which means I am not going to consider the previous test of 17K a major support break. This also means I am NOT going to relabel the wave count from a Wave 4 to a Wave 2. Keep in mind, just because price managed to stay above 20K over the previous week does not mean it will hold for the coming week. In this report I will go over the potential bear market rally scenario. Bear market rallies are very deceptive mostly because they are accompanied by extreme hype, irrational nonsense and lots of HOPE. Do not be fooled. While price has managed to recover relatively quickly off the 17K low, it has YET to compromise ANY significant resistance levels. As I wrote previously: The 22 to 24K is a minor resistance and a potential area for aggressive SHORT signals if one appears (see blue lines). The 25 to 28K resistance is much more conservative and much less likely to be reached. IF price manages to get into this zone, and produces a sell signal, it would offer a higher reward/risk shorting opportunity. While I recognize the bearish potential and opportunity, I still do not short this market and I am not about to start now. Bear markets are hard for most traders and investors because these environments require much more objectivity. The typical retail trader will usually perform better in bullish markets because they can get away with "hoping" their positions back. Hope is NOT a skill and does not pay the bills. What often drives rallies in a bear market is short covering which is TEMPORARY and NOT a solid fundamental reason. Bitcoin is FAR from reflecting any long term bullish structure and IF a lower high is established around the low to mid 20Ks, then a lower low is likely to follow. That means a test of the 17K low is still a very high possibility over the next week or two. Keep in mind a rally in a bear market can also be VERY irrational and go much further than one would "think". An OPEN mind must be maintained which means NO OPINIONS. Evaluate structure and levels along with some broader context. The general economic environment (context) is a LONG WAY from anything that would be inviting for new money to join this game. It can take at least a year or more before the environment becomes attractive again for the type of order follow that would provide for sustainable rallies One good thing about a bear market: it is a good time to educate yourself. Bull markets promote bad habits while bear markets will teach you about risk. Take your time and learn. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
25
BITCOIN The Resistance that every Cycle broke to start the rallyFollowing the 'back to basics' analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and the reminder that the Parabolic Growth Channel is still dictating its long-term cyclical trend, I thought it would be useful to extend it a bit with new parameters. ** The Parabolic Rally and Bear Cycle Resistance elements ** As you see, I've incorporated new measurements on Each Cycle, namely the Parabolic Rally (green) measuring the most aggressive part of the Bull Cycle and the Bear Cycle Resistance (red), which is the Lower Highs trend-line that keeps all price action (practically the whole Bear Cycle) below it until it breaks and the Bull phase starts. ** Angles' symmetry ** What those factors show is that each move holds a certain symmetry. Every Parabolic Rally has so far been roughly on a 60° angle (or at least this is on my chart adjustments, if yours are different it will change but again the angle will change proportionally on all trend-lines). Similarly, the Bear Cycle Resistance has been approximately on a 25° angle. We can see that this analogy held perfectly for the previous Parabolic Rally (October 2020 - April 2021) therefore enabling us to assume that the pattern could continue for the Bear Cycle Resistance. I have applied that Resistance and this gives us a slight idea of when to take a confirmed Buy position once it breaks after the bottom is priced and the trend starts moving upwards again. As you see, the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement level from Cycle Top to previous Cycle Bottom, has always been a good estimation as to where the new Cycle may price its Low and right now we are trading exactly around it. ** Cycles comparison ** Also, for better illustration purposes and a cleaner comparison, I've put all prior Bear Cycles (including the current one) on top of each other, drawing the same Bear Cycle Resistance. You can see with this analogy just how proportionate each phase is and how close the bottom might be. So do you find this approach useful? Based on that are you willing to buy now or after the Resistance breaks? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
44
TOP SECRET RevealedI want to share with you the truth about trading, which «gurus» prefer to keep in a secret. Guys, do you know that nobody knows how the market will move and where the price reverse? That’s all) Okay, if you need more details, please read my arguments. 1. Every market is a very complicated «system». There are many different traders, investors, trading bots and all of them have their own goals and ideas how the market should move. Don’t forget about manipulators with their goals and resources to reach these goals. We don't know who wins in the market in the exact period of time and which goals they have in this moment. 2. There are too many fundamental and technical factors which impact the price all the time. The combination of different factors can give different reactions in the market. So, how to consider all factors in the right way? And don’t forget that the same news may impact the price in different ways. News influence the market for short, medium and long term. There are chart patterns and signals from indicators which trading bots use and they can be for or against fundamental news. So, there are many combinations of factors which push the market up or downward. Do you know how to consider them and be right all the time? 3. Every minute any market can be dumped or pumped because of unexpected news which nobody can predict. Yes, how you can predict the market movement with unpredictable news? So, this is a strong argument supporting the main statement of this post. Also, if you want to predict the market movement, you set up a very weird goal. It means you want to predict the future. If you have a Crystal ball, probably it is not an issue for you. But the majority of people don’t have Crystal balls or use a fake version of it. Yes, we can think about possible market movements around the key levels and lines and plan our trades according to possible patterns, signals and our preferences. But it is not about prediction, it is much more about planning future trades and following the market. And it is absolutely another story. If you like this post, please, smash the LIKE button below. I read all your comments and I'm grateful for your feedback!
by DLavrov
9
BITCOIN - In Sync with the PriceWe say a trader is 'In Sync with the market' when something like this happens and we can call the levels and how the price behaves exactly. Bitcoin ended up checking 19949 twice again, earlier this morning and just now. In his testimony to the Senate committee, Powell pledged an "overarching focus" on bringing down decades-high inflation and reiterated that ongoing increases in the policy rate would be appropriate, with the exact pace dependent on the economic outlook. "We are not trying to provoke, and I don't think we will need to provoke, a recession," Powell said. Powell's comments came a week after the Fed raised interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, its largest increase since 1994. Economists expect a similar move next month, followed by a half-percentage-point rise in September, according to a Reuters poll. "It's the dovish side of very hawkish ... a little bit less clear and a little bit less than totally committed," said Thomas Simons, money market economist at Jefferies, New York. "There isn't this we-will-do-whatever-it-takes ironclad commitment that you might expect would be the predecessor to perhaps really aggressive rate hikes that might lead to a rapid decline in output." One Love, The FXPROFESSOR
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by FX_Professor
3
BTCUSD Daily TA Neutral BullishBTC Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 51% BTC, 49% Cash. *Cryptos led stocks this week with a bullish weekend/Juneteenth leading into a bullish day for equities today, they could also just as easily lead them back down with a bearish catalyst this week (Powell testimony, PMI report, higher global inflation numbers, etc.). It's unclear how much further Bitcoin (and cryptos in general) can fall without forcing mass liquidations at already struggling institutions like 3AC, Celsius, Microstrategy and Babel; but to counter this argument, exchanges like FTX have been stepping in to fund liquidations at crypto lenders like Voyager and BlockFi . All that said, Bitcoin has yet to formally retest the uptrend line from April 2017 at ~$15k (last time was September 2020) so it is a scenario to be mindful of in these times of sporadic volatility.* Price is currently trending up at $20900 as it attempts to close above $21335; if this were to happen it would likely continue the rally to retest $24180 minor resistance. Volume remains Moderate and fairly balanced between buyer and seller dominance (indicative of consolidation); it is on track to shrink for a fourth consecutive session which hints at an impending breakout or breakdown. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $23250, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 31 as it attempts to reclaim support at the uptrend line from 01/22/22 at 25.60 support. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 32 as it tests 29.70 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently forming a trough at -2915, a break above -2497 support would likely form a bullish crossover. ADX is currently trending up at 43 and is beginning to form a soft peak as Price is seeing some buying pressure here in this relief rally, this is neutral at the moment but can turn bullish if it begins to trend downward as Price continues up. If Price is able to continue up here and close above $21335 (two consecutive times, so today + tomorrow) then it will likely retest $24180 minor resistance for the first time since December 2020. However, if Price breaks down here and falls back below $19417 support, it will likely retest the uptrend line from April 2017 at ~$15k for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $19417.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy