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Bitcoin-btcusd-btc

BITCOIN 1st step into the Bull Cycle successful. One left to go.This week's big development for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been the break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since April 21. On this analysis I compare the patterns of the current Bear Cycle and the past two in an attempt to find if this break can be a structured move into a sustainable recovery. First of all, the time-frame on the candles is 1D (daily) but a lot of MA periods including the RSI and MACD indicators are displayed on the 1W because that prints a more complete picture. As you see the similarities of the current Bear Cycle with the past two are remarkable, despite it being an expanded flat correction as opposed to the other two which where sharp correction patterns. ** The Bear Cycle until now ** The RSI clearly shows that the top of the Cycle was in April 2021. That was followed by a sharp drop and rebound on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), which is consistent with the past two Cycles. After the September - November 2021 pump that broke the sharp correction of the other two, the price quickly resumed the Bear Cycle model, was supported and rebounded near the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) to the 1W MA20 (yellow trend-line) where it was rejected. That initiated the final sell-off sequence of the Cycle, where the capitulation was again (as with the past two Cycles) evident by the 1W MA200 crossing below the 1W MA100. The June 18 bottom has been formed just above the -0.618 Fibonacci extension (counting as 0 the Low of the 1W MA50 test) and that caused a rebound that broke this week above the 1D MA50. As you see on the chart, all this has so far been remarkably consistent with the past Bear Cycles. ** What's next? ** To answer this we naturally have to look at how the past two Cycles traded. Following the 1D MA50 break-out, neither Cycle was able to post a sustainable rally. Instead, it was only when the price broke above the 1W MA20 and (especially in the case of 2015) above the 1W MA50 too, that the market was able to rally into the Bull Cycle. So naturally what we would like to see next to largely confirm a Bull Cycle turnaround, is a break above the 1W MA20, which currently is considerably higher, trading at 32700, but declining rapidly. Until then, we continue to be in an Accumulation Phase. But what do you think about this comparison? Do you need to see a break above the 1W MA20 to confirm the recovery sentiment into a new Bull Cycle or feel that this week's break above the 1D MA50 is strong enough on its own? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
20
Bitcoin is still on the rise. Volume is still up. Daily chartAs you can see the trend is still up on the 1day chart. Getting close to closing above the EMA ribbon cable. Volume is rising. Last time we had this trend started a big change like this was march 24th 2020 where it ran from was when it went from $6674 to $54,961 exactly 1 year later on march 24th 2021. The chart closed above the ribbon on April 24th 2020 which was the start of the big bull run. This time around it looks like we will break above somewhere between July 21th to July 26th if the trend doesn’t change and we stay within the channel. This looks to be the start of the next 2020 type bull run. Zoom in to march 24th 2020 and to july 21st 2022 to see what im talking about. There are yellow dotted trend lines showing the direction.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by buster84
BITCOIN broke above both the 1D MA50 and 1W MA200! What's next?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has now broken above both the 1D MA50 (green trend-line) and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). This is a critical benchmark as it last hit the 1D MA50 on April 21 (3 months ago exactly) and it has been trading below the 1W MA200 since the June 13 1W (weekly) candle (more than 1 month). As I've mentioned before numerous times, since the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) held as Support as it last did during the early March 2020 COVID collapse, a break above those trend-lines would be the first and perhaps most decisive signal that the Bear Cycle has bottomed. ** The TSI and MFI ** Notice how the True Strength Indicator (TSI) and the Money Flow Index (MFI), two key indicators for Bitcoin, has printed the same sequences during both the March 2020 and December 2018 bottoms. The TSI now just needs to make a new Bullish Cross (first since August 2021) while the MFI a break above its Falling Wedge, in order to confirm a new rally similar to those of April 2020 - April 2021 (blue pattern) and February 2019 - June 2019 (green pattern). ** Two possible rallies ahead ** For comparison purposes I've plotted those two Rally Sequences on today's price action. Note that this is just an illustration in an attempt to project the trend's action if the same pattern is repeated. If this is indeed the bottom of the Bear Cycle and the beginning of a new Bull Cycle, then the price is more likely to post the less aggressive rally of early 2019 (which was still much stronger than the previous Bull Cycles) as Bitcoin tends to still accumulate after a market bottom and posts the aggressive rally of the Cycle after the Halving. It is worth noting though that both projections show that they will make contact with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) almost exactly at the level they did when they originally played out. This is remarkable and goes to show that there is indeed a degree of symmetry between phases. So do you think that the break-out above both the 1D MA50 and 1W MA200 has signalled the bottom of the Bear and start of a new Bull Cycle? If yes, what projection is more likely for you, the green to $80000 towards the end of the year or blue to $200000 by mid 2023? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
26
BITCOIN hit the 1DMA50 for the 1st time in 3 months! Whats next?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit today the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since April 21. There are various patterns and trend-lines to consider at the moment, but mostly I want to bring forward the similarities with the November 2021 - March 2022 drop. ** Fractal comparison ** That sequence broke its 1D MA50 when first tested but pull-back back near its bottom shortly after. However it recovered equally quickly and tested both the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1D MA200 proved to be the ceiling of that potential recovery as the price got rejected exactly there, which happened to be just over the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. It is worth noting that both sequences made their bottoms around the same time from their tops (75 and 82 days respectively). Also note the similarities on the RSI structures. The 1D MA50 test coming after the RSI broke above its most recent Resistance. ** Level's to consider now ** The 1D MA50 test on today's sequence, comes at exactly the same level with the Lower Highs trend-line from the top. That could add extra rejection pressure. In addition, it is exactly on the Higher Highs (top) trend-line of the small Channel Up pattern that has been formed since the June 18 bottom. As a result, that's technically a triple level Resistance. A break above the 1D MA50, naturally targets the 1D MA100 and similarly above that, targets the 1D MA200. If the Nov-March fractal tells us anything, its that the market shouldn't be expecting a long-term bullish reversal before closing above the 1D MA200, which has been containing the price action below it since December 31 2021, so practically for the whole year! Do you think its time to change that? Would a break above the 1D MA50 signal a bullish reversal, for the short-term at least? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
5