BTC - A Healthy Pullback or a Sign of More to Come?Hey fellow crypto enthusiasts! Let's dive into Bitcoin's recent price action and what we can expect in the coming months.
The Correction Phase: Why It's Not All Doom and Gloom
First off, don't panic about the current correction phase. After the halving, a correction was not just expected. It’s healthy! Think of it as Bitcoin catching its breath before the next big sprint. We're seeing an ABC correction pattern, which savvy traders will recognize as a typical and necessary, market movement.
Timing the Market: When to Make Your Move
So, when’s this correction likely to wrap up? Our crystal ball suggests somewhere between July and August/September. This is the perfect window to dollar-cost average (DCA) into your positions. By buying a fixed dollar amount of BTC at regular intervals, you can average out your entry price, reducing the impact of volatility.
Long Positions: Entering long positions in the 50000-52245 range could be a smart move, considering the support levels and the bullish outlook post-summer.
Key Levels to Watch: The Golden Zone
Here’s where it gets interesting. The big kahuna level to keep an eye on is 50K. Not only is it a psychological level, but it’s also where several technical indicators converge. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the smaller wave sits at $52,245, while the 0.382 Fibonacci level of the entire 491 day bull run is at $51,690. This zone also hosts an old trading range, known as a bullish order block. Translation? This area is packed with historical significance and potential support.
Fibonacci Levels:
Fib 0.618 of the smaller wave is at $52,245.
Fib 0.382 of the entire 491-day bull run is at $51,690.
Ichimoku Cloud: Your Support Safety Net
On the daily timeframe, the Ichimoku cloud’s edge (custom settings) aligns around the 50K mark, offering additional support. It's like having an extra safety net below a tightrope walker.
Altcoins: The Unsung Heroes
Don't forget about altcoins! Many have pulled back significantly, with some seeing 60-80% corrections. This is a golden opportunity to DCA into altcoins and position yourself for potential gains. Remember, during market corrections, altcoins often offer lucrative entry points for those looking to diversify.
Wrapping Up: The Bigger Picture
While the correction phase may seem daunting, it’s a natural part of the market cycle. The key levels around 50K-52K are not just numbers, they’re strategic entry points. With the support of the Ichimoku cloud there’s a lot to be optimistic about as we move towards the end of summer.
What do you think? Are you positioning yourself for the end of the correction? Drop your thoughts and let’s discuss!
With a clearer understanding of Bitcoin's correction phase and the key levels to watch, you're now better equipped to navigate the crypto waters. Happy trading!
Bitcoin-btcusd-btc
BITCOIN Are you going to be able to handle this rally???Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is consolidating on the exact symmetrical spot it did relative to the previous Cycles. The blue circle marks that position historically and is that consolidation that always preceded the Bull Cycle's most aggressive part: the Parabolic Rally.
The Cycle bottom-to-bottom time range is fairly consistent to 1400 days and has been the bottom-to-top of the last two to 1064 days. Having broken above the cyclical Lower Highs (blue trend-line) on February, BTC historically posts only Higher Highs from here. The top can be anywhere within the $150k - $300k range for this Cycle, but as this chart shows, the important thing is to time it as closely as possible.
But what do you think? Is Bitcoin about to experience the start of the new Parabolic Rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Just flashed the strongest Buy Signal of the Bull Cycle!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) turned oversold on its 1D RSI on Monday and yesterday immediately rebounded back above the 30.00 RSI oversold barrier. The previous 3 times it did that exact same sequence since November 09 2022, it was an indication that the bottom was formed and a structured rise / Channel Up would follow.
Technically we can claim that this is the strongest/ most consistent Buy Signal of the whole Bull Cycle so far. Those 3 times turned out to be the most optimal long-term buy entries for investors that buy on dips.
The Gaussian Channel shows that at worst, we are looking at a bottom formation process/ consolidation of another 2 months (as BTC did from August 17 2023 to October 16 2023) but the upside on this Fibonacci Channel Up is significant, with a repeat of the lowest % rise these past 2 years (+91.05%) giving us a minimum Target of $110000.
Do you agree with that? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Hit 60k! Is the bleeding finally over?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) followed the medium-term June bearish forecast and as we projected on the following 2 analyses (see charts below), made the expected correction on the Support Zone around 60k:
Now the market has entered into a medium-term buy opportunity again and once we get confirmation from the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), it will be a long-term one too. The May 01 Low and ultimate Support level is at 56550.
As you can see the 4H MA50 (red trend-line) has been resisting throughout the majority of the Channel Down/ corrective wave but the Resistance and true bullish confirmation was last time given (May 15) when the price broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As the top chart above shows, last year's accumulation phase (green) took another 2 months (August 17 - October 16 2023) to rise after the price broke below the 4D MA50, so we may see real movements at the end of the Summer when the price hits the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Bull Cycle's Channel Up.
In any event, BTC is on levels that long-term investors start consider buying again. Our standard medium-term Target is $72000. Note also that the 1D RSI is massively oversold at 25.50, last time it was this low was 10 months ago (on August 26 2023).
But what do you think about this price action? Is Bitcoin a solid buy now that it hit 60k again? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: Impulse Break Now What?Bitcoin price has violated the wave i overlap that I have been writing about in previous weeks. This means the lower magnitude impulse structure is no longer valid and reduces the probability of a wave v higher in the near term (which is why I removed the labels from my chart). Based on this price action, I am anticipating the continuation of the complex consolidation that this market has been in since the peak in March. Since the long term trend is still bullish, it is a good idea to watch RANGE LOWS for bullish reversal opportunities in the coming weeks.
The current momentum continues to be bearish. I wrote specifically about inside bars appearing the week before, and there are another two present as I write this (see arrow). These are momentum continuation patterns which means at least over the next couple of days prices are likely to test the 62K to 60K support zone (see illustration on chart).
While situations like this may be uneventful for investors and larger time frame traders, there are ample opportunities on intraday time frames. My trade scanner alone has been excelling in this environment because of the reversal signals off of the supports. Having such a system or well defined strategy in place not only offers a clear suggestion on when to get in, but more importantly when to EXIT the market in this highly RANDOM environment.
IF 60K is broken this week, it will increase the probability of a test of the consolidation low which is 56K. These are the kind of scenarios to consider when looking to increase your investment exposure. Again there is NO WAY to know if the market will choose this. This game has NOTHING to do with forecasting the future. It is about BEING PREPARED for a RANGE of possibilities that the market may present. While at the same time ALWAYS accounting for the associated RISK.
Opinions often ruin accounts. It is better to evaluate then let the market validate, otherwise you REEVALUATE. This thought process is much more effective in a market environment for one simple reason: markets are MOSTLY RANDOM. I repeat this a lot and while the words are easy to understand, applying this concept to your decision making framework it not. Emotions, fear of missing out and other herd behaviors are what make you susceptible to the irrelevant opinions of others. The BEST source of market information is THE MARKET.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITCOIN Is it just a giant Cup and Handle that we couldn't see??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame resembles a giant Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern started from the top of the previous Bull Cycle. Even though this is a valid technical pattern, it may have gone ignored by some as traders tend to focus either on shorter term price action or cyclical structures that are often repeated from Cycle to Cycle.
It is undeniable though that the C&H principles are applied on this chart almost to the last little detail and the pattern is now in the process of completing its Handle, in the form of a Channel Down.
How low can it go before completed, largely depends (in our opinion) on which of the following MA periods will hold: the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) or the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line)?
The 1D MA200 provided the earliest Support of the current Bull Cycle on the week of March 06 2023, in fact it was an excellent 'touch-and-rebound' wick. The 1W MA50 has been supporting since the March 13 2023 break-out and came closer to the price action on the week of September 11 2023.
What seems even more useful/ reliable than the above, is the expected % rise after the bottom is made. As you can see, every since the November 2022 Bear Cycle bottom, Bitcoin has had 3 expansion legs, ranging from +91% to +99%. Starting from the first, each has been -4% to -5% less than the previous.
As a result, assuming the 1D MA200 holds and the Handle is completed there, we can expect the next Expansion Leg to reach the $100k - $110k Target Zone.
But what do you think? Which MA will hold, the 1D MA200 or 1W MA50? And what will your Target be after? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: Impulse Still In Play?Bitcoin has retraced into the high 64Ks and overlapped Wave i of the minor impulse structure. Is the impulse no longer valid? I will explain, plus what to anticipate as far as bullish and bearish scenarios for the coming week. It is IMPORTANT to continuously evaluate BOTH sides of the market in order to gain a better perspective which plays a significant role in decision making.
The Wave i/iv overlap is a key criteria when it come to validating impulse structure. If the structure stays intact (wave i/iv do not overlap) then it is within reason to anticipate a Wave v (test of 73K). IF Waves iv/i overlap, then Wave v becomes much less likely. In this scenario, it is more reasonable to expect the consolidation to continue which means there is a greater possibility price tests range lows like 56K or 60K areas respectively.
Now, while there has been price overlap, it is NOT significant enough to really count. The overlap occurred briefly and it consisted of long candle tails. In my opinion, in order for the impulse structure to no longer be valid, price NEEDS to close significantly lower than 64K (see small blue square). Candlestick tails and swift rejection of the area can be interpreted as the impulse structure still being in play and it's within reason to anticipate Wave v developing in the coming week or two.
How about the bearish scenario? At the moment there are two inside candles present (see arrow). Inside candles are typically momentum continuation patterns relative to the recent broader candle (which is bearish). A break below these candles (around 64,500 area) will likely lead to a test of the 62K to 64K area in the coming week. In this scenario, the bullish impulse is no longer valid and further consolidation becomes the reasonable expectation.
How you navigate these scenarios is going to largely depend on your personal style and risk tolerance. There are always more opportunities on smaller time frames and the information that I provide here can be used to prepare for potential signals or trade ideas on these time frames. Some experience helps when it comes time to confirm such opportunities because markets are MOSTLY RANDOM. A confirmation tool like my Trade Scanner Pro shines in this area.
Either way, there are 3 types of signals to recognize: continuation, random and reversal. Reversal is the easiest to spot because it begins with a predetermined support/resistance level and can be evaluated respective to the broader trend. Continuation patterns are tricky because they can be more random, and random signals you are always trying to avoid even though they can product a positive outcome. Knowing what to look for in advance helps immensely when navigating consolidating environments like the one Bitcoin is within.
When it comes to skill in this game, its the ability to adjust to new information since markets are MOSTLY random. "Thinking" you know where the market will go, having opinions etc, is precisely why you will be continuously fleeced. Reject the herd mentality by first accepting that NO ONE can forecast where the market will be. They do by coincidence. Second, do your best to develop a decision making process that relies on the LEAST amount of information possible. Most of the information available at the retail level is NOT for your benefit. From there you have to identify actionable information (HINT: start with trend. support/resistance).
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITCOIN Failure to hold the 1D MA50 leads to $60k.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was rejected yesterday on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and that caused another pull-back that is about to test the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) once again. On Tuesday this level held and is critical to continue to do so as a breach might lead us to $60000.
This is what took place on the April 08 - 19 Channel Down. It is important to note that after the bearish break-out, the price was rejected straight on the 1D MA50, which basically confirmed the continuation to 60k.
We are currently on a similar Channel Down. Do you think the 1D MA50 will hold or break and push BTC to 60k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin's Impressive Trajectory and the Road to $100,000Over the past 15 years, Bitcoin has consistently exceeded projections and expectations. In just over a decade, its value has surged from mere pennies per coin to over $50,000 by 2021, capturing global attention.
As of June 2024, Bitcoin's price hovers around $70,000, with the next major milestone being the highly anticipated six-figure mark. While reaching $100,000 may seem ambitious, historical trends suggest it's increasingly likely. The pressing question remains: When will Bitcoin surpass the $100,000 threshold? Could it happen in 2024?
Any prediction regarding Bitcoin's future is inherently speculative, but such speculation encourages us to evaluate long-term developments in the investment landscape.
To forecast Bitcoin's performance, it's crucial to consider trends related to its halving events. A halving is a pre-programmed occurrence approximately every four years that halves the reward for mining new blocks, forming the basis of Bitcoin's monetary policy. This mechanism decreases the rate at which new bitcoins are created over time, contributing to its scarcity and historically driving price appreciation. Bitcoin's most recent halving in April 2024 reduced its inflation rate to just 0.85%.
Examining previous halvings reveals that Bitcoin's price typically increases by around 125% in the year of a halving. Starting from a price of $44,000 at the beginning of 2024, a 125% increase would place Bitcoin at $99,000. If this halving has a similar impact as previous ones, Bitcoin should be close to the $100,000 mark in 2024. However, there's another variable to consider that could boost Bitcoin beyond this threshold: the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Historically, Bitcoin's rise was driven mainly by retail investors. With the advent of spot Bitcoin ETFs, institutional investors can now accumulate Bitcoin without regulatory or custodial concerns. This new vehicle for Bitcoin exposure is already making an impact. In February, ETFs were purchasing Bitcoin at a rate 10 times the daily production rate, pushing its price to a new all-time high. Although the buying rate has cooled, it’s likely just the beginning. If buying resumes at those levels post-halving, ETFs would outpace Bitcoin's daily supply by 20 times.
2024 is shaping up to be the year Bitcoin could reach $100,000. With its price around $70,500 today, this represents a potential 40% gain. However, it’s important to note that Bitcoin often sees its most significant gains in the year following a halving. Historically, Bitcoin has soared by more than 400% on average in the post-halving year. If Bitcoin doesn't reach $100,000 in 2024, 2025 remains a strong possibility.
Whether it happens this year or next, ongoing halvings, increasing adoption, and institutional involvement make a compelling case for Bitcoin to continue surprising us for years to come.
Bitcoin: Back To 64K Again?Bitcoin has rejected the 70k to 72K resistance area AGAIN. This failed breakout may lead to a retest of the 64K to 66K support zone in the coming week. IF 64K is compromised, it will imply that the current minor impulse structure is not valid and reinforces the argument that price is likely to consolidate further. This scenario opens the possibilities of testing 60K and 56K in the coming weeks.
The arrow on my chart points to the 64,500 area where waves (i) and (iv) can potentially overlap. This is key to maintaining the impulse structure and short term bullish expectations. IF this area continues to hold, it implies wave (iv) is still in play and a bullish leg higher is within reason. For this reason, the 64K to 66K area is an ideal location to anticipate bullish setups on smaller time frames. The confirmation is the key to capitalizing effectively and this is where my Trade Scanner Pro shines and what I demonstrate during my streams.
IF wave (v) follows, the 73K resistance is likely to be tested and favored to break. This level still represents a place reduce risk (take profits) and look for low expectation short setups. A strong break should see price close in the 74K area at LEAST. Keep in mind "probability" means there is still a chance price can fail. A favorable pattern on a chart does NOT guarantee certainty.
Knowing your levels in advance and evaluating them within the scope of a relevant trend is a key component to success in this game. Being able to adjust to new information will serve you better than clinging to an opinion, no matter how logical it may be. The collective perception of market participants is what determines the value of an asset or price. This "perceived value" is constantly changing as new information reaches the market. Having an opinion, especially a "logical" one offered by an expert is ineffective because it typically operates under the assumption that nothing material will change. This is why NO ONE was able to forecast the infamous pullback to 15K. Remember that?
By utilizing a LESS IS MORE framework, I am able to anticipate short term movements but MORE importantly evaluate them in terms of RISK. If you see my articles written over previous weeks my anticipated scenarios (illustrated on the chart) have been inline with the actual outcome. These forecasts are a result of ONLY 2 components: Relevant TREND, SUPPORT/RESISTANCE level, NOTHING more.
I don't aim to be right, I aim to contain RISK. Markets are MOSTLY RANDOM, which means to successfully navigate, the focus should be on what we can control. How you manage risk will shape your entire decision making process, techniques and strategies you choose to employ. By filtering out most information and purely focusing on the limited information that carries any relevance at all I am able to gain an actionable point of reference. From there it is totally up to the market to show its hand. Managing risk is about ADJUSTING to new information while following a set of rules to keep losses and expectations proportional to ones account.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITCOIN SWING SHORT|
✅BITCOIN is approaching a supply level of just below 74,000$
So according to our strategy
We will be looking for the signs of the reversal in the trend
To jump onto the bearish bandwagon just on time to get the best
Risk reward ratio for us
SHORT🔥
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BITCOIN You might not be ready for such June!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is doing it and yet again it is going under the radar for some. The price broke out yesterday from its short-term Falling Wedge and as we showed you is extending the Bullish Leg of the Channel Up.
Zooming out to the 1M time-frame, we can see that May closed in gains (green) and since August 2023, there has only been one month of losses (red 1M candle) and that was April. Even though that injected some uncertainty to market participants, we clearly see on this long-term chart that sporadic 1 month losses are very common in Bull Cycles, especially during parabolic rallies.
In fact they are essential as they create the right shake-out conditions to keep fueling the rally. The symmetry among BTC's Cycles is remarkable and right now with the 1W MA50 (black trend-line) in deep support, it is attempting to get detached from the Mayer Multiple (MM) 1 SD above (grey trend-line), much like it did on October 2020 and April 2017.
Based on that, we are looking for the rally to extend to at least the end of the year and reach a Target Zone within $150k - $200k within MM 2 and 3 SD above (orange the red trend-lines respectively). Last but not least, take a look at the 1M RSI, which is also on a symmetry with the previous Cycles and once it touches the Lower Highs trend-line, we should consider to start taking profits regardless of whether of the range the price might be at the time.
But what do you think? Are you prepared for a 'hot' June and if yes, how high do you think BTC will go? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin on the Brink of a New Bull Run Post-HalvingBitcoin's price has begun to surge once again, indicating a potential new bull run following its recent halving. The price action is currently within a bullish channel, and technical indicators combined with Fibonacci ratios suggest the onset of a fresh bullish impulse.
The Halving Effect: A Catalyst for Price Appreciation
On April 19, Bitcoin underwent its fourth halving event. These halvings, which occur approximately every four years, are integral to Bitcoin's monetary policy. They aim to maintain scarcity by halving the inflation rate, which has now dropped to just 0.85%—a lower rate than that of gold, often deemed the ultimate store of value and inflation hedge.
Over the long term, the reduction in Bitcoin's inflation rate is expected to drive price appreciation. As demand for Bitcoin increases, the limited supply of 21 million coins will face increasing pressure, creating significant potential for price rises.
Even in the short term, the halving effect enhances Bitcoin's attractiveness as an investment. Historically, Bitcoin's price has risen by an average of 125% in years when a halving occurs. This suggests that, starting from the beginning of the year, Bitcoin's price could potentially exceed $100,000, offering substantial returns given the current price around $69,000. Furthermore, Bitcoin's best performance typically happens in the year following a halving, with historical gains exceeding 400%.
Significant Institutional Interest and Bitcoin's Role in the Financial Landscape
For much of its history, Bitcoin's rise has been driven by retail investors. However, this dynamic is set to change significantly. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs has made it easier for institutional investors with vast capital reserves to invest in the cryptocurrency. This influx of major Wall Street players is likely to exert unprecedented pressure on Bitcoin's finite supply, echoing its early days of high demand.
The approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF also reflects the market's current perception of Bitcoin and its role in the financial ecosystem. In contrast, Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, faces ongoing debates over ETF approval as regulators determine whether it is a security or a commodity. This regulatory scrutiny extends to all cryptocurrencies, creating uncertainty about their classification.
It's crucial to note that an SEC classification of a cryptocurrency as a security does not spell the end for that blockchain. Many of these assets are highly decentralized and would continue to operate even if faced with litigation from the SEC. Cryptocurrencies are traded globally and are not confined to the laws of any single country.
However, regulatory risks are a significant concern for markets. Bitcoin stands out as a relatively safer investment in this regard. The SEC has already classified Bitcoin as a commodity, placing it outside the agency's regulatory control. This classification grants Bitcoin unique staying power and a degree of protection against regulatory scrutiny.
Bitcoin's current bullish trend, supported by the recent halving and growing institutional interest, sets the stage for potential substantial price appreciation. The reduced inflation rate and increasing demand create a strong case for Bitcoin's long-term value. Meanwhile, its classification as a commodity provides a safeguard against regulatory risks, further solidifying its position as a leading asset in the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin: Push Back To 70Ks?Bitcoin support at the 66K area continues to hold and may be the higher low (wave (iv)) that may lead to a higher high over the coming weeks (see illustration). In order for a dramatic new high like 80K to be tested, price needs to prove itself by clearing 73K first. The key to navigating this is to WAIT for the market to provide evidence (confirmation), NOT get stuck on an opinion about the future. Even though the broader trend is bullish, UNTIL it breaks out, it is within reason to expect the consolidation to continue.
Recognizing the support/resistance levels within broader consolidations can help to uncover numerous opportunities, especially on smaller time frames. For example, while I consider the 66K area a minor support on this time frame (see arrow), this location is a great spot to anticipate longs on day trade time frames like the 1 or 5 minute chart.
When using such levels as a form of context to guide decisions, traders often do not understand how to shape expectations relative to the magnitude of the time frame. For instance, price movements on a 1 minute chart are typically smaller than a 5 minute or 1 hour chart. Knowing this should shape expectations in terms of reward/risk. This is one of the problems I aimed to solve when coming up with the idea for Trade Scanner Pro by automating the exit points using the average true range (ATR).
The same can be said about the 70K whole number resistance area. This is an ideal location to WAIT for sell signals, whether to take profit or an aggressive counter trend trade short. Again the location provides a point of reference where we can anticipate a particular price behavior or opportunity. It is up to the MARKET to confirm and even then, there is a chance it can get stopped out (markets are mostly RANDOM).
My analysis is meant to shed light on a select range of possibilities over the coming week for day and swing traders. I have to remind people of this because many come to these articles expecting to gain knowledge of the future. It will take some time to realize effective risk management has NOTHING to do with where price will be in the future. There is no way to forecast the future accurately, ESPECIALLY using the limited information that is available on charts.
The idea is to help you prepare for potential opportunities that I believe have a greater probability of a positive outcome because of the price location relative to the trend. The MARKET decides what scenario will play out, not me or anyone else. To align with the market, we must have a passive mindset, good listening skills and the ability to admit being wrong QUICKLY, especially on smaller time frames.
So here is how to prepare of the coming week: IF the low 66Ks are tested, look for longs, IF 66K breaks, avoid longs and reevaluate new levels. IF 70K is tested, look to take profits, or consider aggressive shorts (counter trend). IF 70K is cleared, watch for test of 73K. How you navigate your positions is a function of your risk tolerance and personal style. Most importantly, let the market do the THINKING, you simply adjust to the new information as it appears.
Thank you for your considering my analysis and perspective.
Strong Monthly Altseason Argument ETHBTCThe Gaussian Channel shows a bullish trend on this Monthly timeframe with a strong bounce off the middle line of the channel.
This as a point of reversal allows ETHUSD and other altcoins to out perform BTC on a Monthly scale.
I think BTC will Top very early compared to that of Ethereum and other altcoins.
BITCOIN Inverse Head and Shoulders targeting $79500Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is technically about to complete the Right Shoulder of the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern (IH&S) that followed the All Time High (ATH) of March 14. The driving vessel behind it is a (dotted) Channel Up whose Bullish Leg peaked at +19.50% and its two Bearish Legs so far have been around -8.00%.
As you may realize, there is a high degree of structural symmetry on these patterns as even the IH&S has distinct Support and Resistance Zones, with Sour interest currently being on Support Zone 1, which has already held twice since May 23.
As a result, as long as it holds along with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), the trend remains bullish and the IH&S technical dynamics target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at $89000. However we keep at the moment a shorter term perspective and before 89k, we will aim at $79500, which would be a +19.50% rise, similar to the Channel's previous Bullish Leg.
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD: Entering the parabolic phase.Bitcoin is on excellent bullish levels on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 66.472, MACD = 251.100, ADX = 42.204). Following the correction of the last two months, the market has entered the green zone of the Cycle, which is its parabolic phase. This historic chart on the 1W timeframe shows that this phase lasts around 560 days while the previous blue one, which extends from the bottom of the Cycle, lasts around 500 days. This is a clear indication that at least for a year, Bitcoin will most likely rise parabolically with a possible target zone of 200,000 - 300,000.
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BITCOIN There is no turning back from this.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has started the 5th Bullish Wave of the current Bull Cycle, following the consolidation of the past 2 months. Since the November 2022 bottom we have had 4 such waves with consolidations ranging from 1 month to 6 months (blue Channel of April 10 - October 10 2023). The current wave can technically take Bitcoin up to $100k alone.
What is even more bullish than that though is the fact that the whole (ellipse) structure since the October 2023 Low, resembles the sequences of April 2020 - March 2021 and May - December 2017. As you can see, both were Bullish Legs of the 7-year Channel Up. Symmetrically, it appears that we are past its 2nd consolidation (blue circle) and starting the final rally to the Top of the Channel Up.
That means that the Cycle Top can even be marginally higher than $200k until the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is breached again (note that we are past a 1W Bullish Cross also) which can make us start considering a Bull Cycle again.
But what do you think? Is this rise just the start of a wave that will take BTC to 100000 even 200000 if history repeats itself? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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