XRPUSDT → Ripple prepares for 70% growth ↑BINANCE:XRPUSDT is forming a technical false break of support, in the long term consolidation above the zone should be formed with the purpose of continuation of growth, the potential of which can be opened by 50-70%
The price on W1 is squeezed within the triangle. Another attempt to retest the resistance zone is being formed. At the moment, the market is restrained from strong growth by the proceedings between the SEC and XRP. Ripple recently announced that they are willing to pay a $10 million fine instead of $2 billion, while two strong lawyers are resigning from the SEC. The upside potential will be a price consolidation above the 0.500 area and on a breakout of 0.73.
Support levels: 0.5000, 0.4226
Resistance levels: 0.6431, 0.7325, 0.8547
If the legal nuances are closed soon, a new bullish time will come for XRP and Ripple will start to conquer new peaks.
Regards R. Linda!
Bitcoin-btcusd-btc
Bitcoin: Watch For Pullback 60K.Bitcoin has retraced off the 56,400 area support (level has been on this chart for months), straight back to 64K. The arrows on the chart point to the consecutive lows that characterize a failed low pattern. This brings price to a tricky area for new swing trades. The 64K area is a resistance and NOT an ideal spot for new longs on this time frame. In this scenario I am waiting for the retrace (see illustration) back to 60K support to look for swing trade long signals.
In fact my system (Trade Scanner Pro) is showing a long at the current price on this time frame, but the risk is enormous (like 7K points). This is where having a good grasp of context can help to filter out such low probability signals. Identifying RELEVANT support/resistance levels in advance provides a way to ANTICIPATE price behavior and offers an effective reference point to expect signals. Not to mention the boost of confidence that comes from the preparedness when the signals appears.
It is also important to understand that when using conventional methods to evaluate ANY market, the random nature will most likely lead to a 50% probability of being right. Most traders (especially beginners) place heavy emphasis on being right (high win rate) and do not realize that is the equivalent of expecting a high win rate from a slot machine. Slot machines are 100% random (in theory anyway) while the market is not because markets trend. This means there is a chance to beat the market BUT it requires strong knowledge of inefficiencies and typical trader behavioral patterns (not common tools like RSI).
I mention this because the illustrations on my chart that represent the scenario that I am anticipating for the coming week are not always right and nor do I expect them to be. These are not forecasts, these are ideal patterns that I would like to see in order to confirm some kind of action or decision. It is basically a big IF. I have no clue where the markets are going, instead I come up with an estimate based on recent history and then ADJUST to what the market actually chooses to do from there. ADJUSTING is KEY.
The sooner you accept this idea, the sooner you will begin to appreciate high value market information vs. the 99% of nonsense that most traders consume (too much internet!). Less is MORE in this game simply because most of what is publicly available does NOT improve your chances of positive outcome over time.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
✅BITCOIN WILL GO DOWN|SHORT🔥
✅BITCOIN broke the key
Horizontal level of 61k$
So we are bearish biased
Now and as the pair is
Making a bullish correction
We will be waiting for the
Retest of the broken level
Which is a resistance now
From where we will be
Expecting a further
Move down
SHORT🔥
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Update on BitcoinThis is an update to my previous Bitcoin short idea. Price reached above 50% of the range which means it has reached the minimum premium for shorts being viable. I will monitor price action in the current Daily Order Block and see if we move lower from here. There is a resistance trendline with Buyside liquidity so we may still reach higher into the zone from my previous analysis and sweep buyside before moving lower. Only time will tell.
BITCOIN Bottom of the 6-month Megaphone. Will it hold?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) almost tested the Higher Lows trend-line that started on the October 12 2023 Low, which is technically the bottom of the 6-month Bullish Megaphone pattern. Having a notable Resistance on the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), which is where BTC last failed to make its bullish break-out, if this level holds, then we can expect a strong Bullish Leg such as those of February - March 2024 and October - December 2023 (blue ellipses).
As you can see, each Higher High on the Megaphone pattern has been proportionally higher, the first hit the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, the second hit the 2.618 Fibonacci extension, which is natural for Megaphones. As a result, if the pattern continues, reaching the all important psychological target of $100000 seems more than plausible as it sits just above the 2.0 Fib extension, where based on the pattern it can even reach the 3.0 Fib (127k).
But what do you think? Will the Megaphone's bottom hold and push BTC to 100k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Bearish BreakdownThe recent analysis of Bitcoin's price dynamics on the Binance exchange, captured on a 4-hour chart, indicates a significant bearish trend. The price has notably broken below a dynamic support within a descending channel, punctuating a swift decline in market value. This descent is further emphasized by a failure to hold above the support around the 51K area, which was a previous gap level, suggesting a robust bearish sentiment in the market.
Bollinger Bands show the price nearing the lower band, typically a marker of an oversold condition which could either predict a continuation of the current trend or signal a potential reversal if the market perceives it as too severe a drop.
Trading Volume at 18.4K BTC highlights active participation, giving weight to the price movement. High volume accompanying a price drop usually confirms the market's commitment to the current downward trend.
Simple Moving Average (SMA) positioned at 60480, with the price trading below this level, suggests a bearish outlook as it indicates that current prices are less than recent averages, pointing to declining market momentum.
Stochastic Oscillator values (%K at 15.44 and %D at 13.24) below 20 indicate an oversold market condition, which might lead to a temporary rebound or continued selling if the bearish pressure persists.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 28 also signals that Bitcoin is currently oversold, providing a potential for price stabilization or a minor recovery, depending on broader market sentiment.
MACD further validates the downward momentum, with both the MACD line and the signal line deep in negative territory, emphasizing the strong bearish momentum in the market.
This analysis underscores a phase of strong selling pressure characterized by the breakdown of key support levels amid significant trading volume and bearish indicators from both RSI and MACD. The current market scenario suggests cautiousness among traders and investors, with potential opportunities for those looking to capitalize on lower prices, should a reversal occur.
However, the prevailing market sentiment remains heavily bearished, advising vigilance and readiness for possible continued downward movements.
BITCOIN Sellers seem fully confident again. TIME TO BUY?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit and broke yesterday below the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) for the first time in more than 3 months (since January 23 2024). This is progressively turning the majority of news and traders across the market bearish and in full confidence of shorting to even lower prices. Should long-term investors panic?
The answer appears to be 'No' and in fact if anything, this is the time to add more quarterly buy positions. The reason is shown on this 1W chart. Compared to the 2014/ 2017 Cycle, Bitcoin has formed the exact Bull Flag that is currently in 5 times until its eventual top. Each time the Flag bottomed after breaking the 1D MA100 but never touched the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) until the end of the Bull Cycle. Of course the (green) Ichimoku Cloud also supported below all the way to the top.
It is interesting to also notice the 1W RSI sequence between the two Cycles. Both started with a Channel Up, which in the case of 2014/ 2017 it evolved into a Rectangle for the 2nd part of the Bull Cycle, with the price ranging from ovebrought (85.00 - 90.00) to borderline neutral (55.00). Currently the RSI is attempting to breach the Channel Up, thus flashing resemblances with the March 13-20 2017.
But what do you think? Is this the time to buy BTC again on a Bull Cycle basis or the narrative will be broken and it will test the 1W MA50? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Bollinger Squeeze attracting Bulls for 100k and above!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is about to test the bottom of the Bollinger Bands (BB) on the 3D time-frame for the first time in 3 months (since January 25). Right now the squeeze between the BB basis (blue line) and the bottom (green line) is extremely tight and since the start of 2023 this has been fairly accurate bottom call.
The trend since the November 2022 bottom has been parabolic (green parabola) and thus is most efficiently displayed by the use of the Fibonacci Channel extension levels. After breaking above the 1.0 Fib on the February 12 2024 candle, the recent All Time High (ATH) in mid March 2024 broke even above the 1.5 Fib. Technically on the new Bullish Leg that is about to start after the current squeeze attracts as many buyers as possible, we should reach at least (most likely even break it) the 2.0 Fib.
$110000 is a very realistic target under these conditions and we shouldn't neglect to mention also the BB Width (BBW) consolidating on its bottom, which again is related to high bullish activity and accumulation when performed on the BB green line.
But what do you think? Is this squeeze about to make bulls accumulate and break aggressively to the upside? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: 60K Test Or Higher Low?Bitcoin has retraced but not back to the 60K major support which I wrote about in my previous article. Instead, it is in the process of establishing a higher low along with a bullish pin bar (see arrow). The current candle has taken out the high of the pin bar which can be interpreted as a signal for a swing trade long. IF momentum takes hold, it is within reason for price to test the 69K area resistance in the coming week (see illustration on chart). The key to capturing such a move is to WAIT for the current candle to close to effectively measure risk.
What IF the current candle does not follow through? That scenario can be interpreted as a continuation of the corrective structure means the 60K support test is still possible. As I regularly remind my followers, this is NOT a game of forecasting the future, it is about identifying possibilities and WAITING for the market to confirm which path IT wants to take. Markets are HIGHLY random which means scenarios on both sides of the market should always be considered.
In terms of the bigger picture, as long as price stays above 60K, it maintains a broader bullish consolidation. This price structure serves as a higher low which means there is a greater probability of a higher high to follow in the coming months (break of 73K?). A greater chance does NOT equate to a guarantee or a high degree of certainty. This is why RISK must always be measured carefully.
How do we define risk? Using the current bullish setup as an example, one way to measure risk is to consider the pin bar low at 62,405. IF price takes this out and closes below it, the swing trade long idea is cancelled out. IF you are long from the 63,905 entry (pin bar high) then you are looking at approximately 1500 points of risk. You then have to consider this amount relative to your account size. For example if you have a 10K account, and you buy the equivalent of 1 coin, you are looking at 15% risk which is TOO HIGH for one trade. Typical risk should be around 2% per trade which means you should be risking ONLY $200 on 10K. You have to adjust your position size so that if you get stopped out at 1500 points, you only lose $200. Which for this example would be something like .125 of a coin.
Risk can be gauged on many magnitudes and another thing to keep in mind is the risk on the monthly time frame. IF the 60K range low breaks some time next month for example that can signal a broader correction is likely to follow. Such a move can lead to a test of the low 50Ks which would be more attractive levels for investing. Again this is NOT something to "think" is going to happen, the market NEEDS to prove itself one way or the other. This time frame expresses a TON of risk for those who are investing heavily at current levels.
When we first enter this game, we usually come with a lot of preconceived notions, "logic" and warped expectations as a result of consuming too much internet propaganda. When your emotions mix with this misinformation it is a recipe for the herd mentality. When you react to everything you see and hear, you are being motivated by greed and fear which means your outcomes will be no better than random. To start on the right path, tune out everything else and focus on learning how to assess RISK using technical analysis. If anything you will at least improve your ability to preserve your capital for when better opportunities appear.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITCOIN This is where historically the fun begins.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has successfully tested and held the Mayer Multiple (MM) Mean (red trend-line) and is now consolidating. As you can see by the green arrows, this is the point where historically the most aggressive part of the Bull Cycle begins, as even in the occasions where the MM Mean broke marginally (July 2013), the rebound that followed was even more impressive and strong.
We can actually get a progression out of those sequences as if we measure the Fibonacci extensions from the MM Mean's Low and the High before it, we can see that Cycle 1 peaked marginally above Fib 2.0, Cycle 2 was +2 Cycle 1's Fib i.e. 4.0 and Cycle 3 was +2 Cycle 2's Fib i.e. 6.0. We can assume, of course always with the relative degree of uncertainty that Cycle 4 might be +2 Fib more of Cycle 3's Fib i.e. 6.0 + 2.0 = 8.0.
Unrealistic or not, that gives us a $300000 projection and is undeniably technical as those are the exact High-to-Low measurements at the time it touched the MM Mean.
But what do you think? Is it possible for BTC to peak at such a high level on this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Halving chop is almost over. Do you really want to sell?Just a reminder. Bitcoin's Halving is only 3 days away.
Historically heavy chop trade took place before the Halving events. Only once (July 2016) did we see a new Low after the Halving.
Chances are the correction will be over before the Halving.
Do you really want to be holding shorts after that??
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
BITCOIN Is this simply a big Bull Flag?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) touched today the bottom of the Channel Down pattern that started a month ago on the March 14 High. Ever since is posted Lower Highs and Lower Lows, dropping under the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Since the long-term trend for months has been a parabolic rally, this pattern can be seen just as a big Bull Flag, a necessary short-term pull-back before new Highs.
As BTC is approaching the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), it is important to know that the last time it did was on January 23 and it held it as Support, closing the 1D candle above it. Technically that is the tolerance limit, in order to the uptrend to stay valid with low entry buyers.
The January 23 Low initiated a rebound that peaked marginally above the 2.618 Fibonacci extension, the March 14 High. If the same pattern is repeated, we can see $95000 by June.
How probable do you think that is? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Holding the ATH Zone! Is this like 2017?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) made a sharp decline on Saturday and is now in the process of recovering. The 1W candle wick dived as low as the low of almost 30 days back (March 20), extending the 1-month consolidation since March 13 High. This is of course directly related to the fundamental aspect of BTC's Halving, which is due at the end of the week and historically exerts high volatility onto the market.
Buy even from a technical point of view, those two sell-offs found Support and held the (red) All Time High (ATH) Zone, which is the range taken from the closings of the previous ATH candles. As we can see on the right chart, it was the exact case on the 2014/ 2017 Cycle, which is the Cycle that we first here most tightly correlated Bitcoin's current Cycle.
More specifically, the March 20 and April 10 2017 1W candles, were both contained at the bottom of the ATH Zone and sharply extended the rally right after. This means that the Halving event can be the ideal fundamental 'excuse' to kick-start the rest of the technical rally and fulfil the pattern.
But what do you think? Will history be repeated once more? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: Range Low Buy Signal.Bitcoin has rejected the 70K area resistance as the pre halving consolidation unfolds. In hindsight, you were better off listening to things like support/resistance LEVELS and price structure rather than all of the social hyperbole going into the halving event. "Buy The Rumor, Sell the News" seems to be what is in play here and usually makes fools of people who are easily mislead by rocket ships on thumbnails. Now that Bitcoin is flirting with a relevant support level, a swing trade long setup with reasonable potential has a greater probability of appearing this week.
To succeed as a trader or investor, it is IMPORTANT to gauge the market in terms of probabilities. This means arguments on BOTH sides of the market must be considered at all times and based on something relevant to the market. When it comes to short term speculation, technical analysis often provides substantial arguments because it serves as a reflection of the underlying supply and demand of ORDER FLOW.
If you have been following the support/resistance levels that have been on my charts for WEEKS now, you can see how price has reacted. This is why when price pushes new highs but happens to be in the midst of a resistance zone, I become RISK ADVERSE, NOT MORE OPTIMISTIC. And while I receive criticism for being too conservative during very broad moves, I found it to be more effective is miss an outlier than to be stuck on the wrong side of the probability. Novices don't realize, it may work the first or second time, but over time, the probabilities will catch up and you will give back any profit made on the outlier.
As of now, price flirts with the 64K support and is presenting an inside bar which can turn into a buy signal IF 65K is taken out upon the close. What is compelling about this buy potential swing trade long signal? Price location. It is part of the range low consolidation within a broader bullish trend. Probability favors a test of high from these levels which can take price back to 68K or 69K areas. Risking 2K points in an attempt to capture 3K or 4K points is a worthwhile reward/risk.
IF the 61K area support breaks instead, a test of the 58K to 60K area becomes more probable. Keep in mind a bearish consolidation breakout increases the chance of a broader corrective move that is both unexpected and overdue. Have you seen the monthly chart? Vertical markets are typically unsustainable.
It will be interesting to see how price action plays out once the halving event is out of the way. Markets are HIGHLY random, and all it takes is unexpected news to change expectations. Prices don't cling to logic because they are driven by greed and fear. Two emotional forces that are shaped by PERCEPTIONS of the future. Trust PRICE not people.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BTCUSD: 1D MA50 broken after 2 months. Selling isn't over.Bitcoin may be neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 46.271, MACD = 810.300, ADX = 25.259) but it just broke under the 1D MA50 for the first time in more than 2 months (February 6th last contact). In the meantime, it crossed under the HL trendline of the Ascending Triangle, so we have a full-scale technical bearish breakout. The RSI pattern looks very much like the January 12th 1D MA50 bearish breakout.
If Bitcoin closes the 1D candle under it, we will wait for the bottom to be formed on the S1 level, always above the 1D MA100 (which supported on the January 23rd low) and buy (should be a around a week after the Halving) targeting a little over the 2.618 Fibonacci extension (TP = 100,000). That was where the March 14th top was priced.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Bitcoin wave analysis 2023 - 20242023: sideway in range $16k - $30k to form A-B of B of 2
2024: go up at least $48.5k to form C of B of 2
Wave analysis details:
Bitcoin has started sub-wave orange A of white A of yellow B of 2
Since sub-wave yellow A of 2 has 3 swings (A-B-C), so wave 2 is flat correction which sub-wave yellow B has to go above 61.8% of A (around $48.5k)
BITCOIN consolidating around ATH = Mega BUY!Quick comparison of Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) current Cycle to the one in 2014 - 2017, which is the one that has been most tightly correlated to and as you can see by the charts below, we have spotted since January 2023, right at the market bottom:
The current consolidation around the previous All Time High (ATH) region is a clear buy signal, in fact based on the 2014/17 Cycle, it is the last we might get before the Parabolic Rally (green) phase starts.
As you can see both Cycle's started with a Falling Wedge leading to the bottom, then the Accumulation Phase as soon as the price broke above the 1W MA50, leading to the 1st take-off Phase to test the ATH.
The 1W RSI will mostly stay overbought from now on until the top of the Cycle, which is not the essence of the current idea, but we expect it to be at least at 200k. The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) should continue to support until the Cycle Top.
But what do you think? Do you expect BTC to start the parabolic rally phase shortly after the Halving which is around a week's time? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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