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Bitcoin-btcusd-btc

BITCOIN You might not be ready for such June!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is doing it and yet again it is going under the radar for some. The price broke out yesterday from its short-term Falling Wedge and as we showed you is extending the Bullish Leg of the Channel Up. Zooming out to the 1M time-frame, we can see that May closed in gains (green) and since August 2023, there has only been one month of losses (red 1M candle) and that was April. Even though that injected some uncertainty to market participants, we clearly see on this long-term chart that sporadic 1 month losses are very common in Bull Cycles, especially during parabolic rallies. In fact they are essential as they create the right shake-out conditions to keep fueling the rally. The symmetry among BTC's Cycles is remarkable and right now with the 1W MA50 (black trend-line) in deep support, it is attempting to get detached from the Mayer Multiple (MM) 1 SD above (grey trend-line), much like it did on October 2020 and April 2017. Based on that, we are looking for the rally to extend to at least the end of the year and reach a Target Zone within $150k - $200k within MM 2 and 3 SD above (orange the red trend-lines respectively). Last but not least, take a look at the 1M RSI, which is also on a symmetry with the previous Cycles and once it touches the Lower Highs trend-line, we should consider to start taking profits regardless of whether of the range the price might be at the time. But what do you think? Are you prepared for a 'hot' June and if yes, how high do you think BTC will go? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
5
Bitcoin on the Brink of a New Bull Run Post-HalvingBitcoin's price has begun to surge once again, indicating a potential new bull run following its recent halving. The price action is currently within a bullish channel, and technical indicators combined with Fibonacci ratios suggest the onset of a fresh bullish impulse. The Halving Effect: A Catalyst for Price Appreciation On April 19, Bitcoin underwent its fourth halving event. These halvings, which occur approximately every four years, are integral to Bitcoin's monetary policy. They aim to maintain scarcity by halving the inflation rate, which has now dropped to just 0.85%—a lower rate than that of gold, often deemed the ultimate store of value and inflation hedge. Over the long term, the reduction in Bitcoin's inflation rate is expected to drive price appreciation. As demand for Bitcoin increases, the limited supply of 21 million coins will face increasing pressure, creating significant potential for price rises. Even in the short term, the halving effect enhances Bitcoin's attractiveness as an investment. Historically, Bitcoin's price has risen by an average of 125% in years when a halving occurs. This suggests that, starting from the beginning of the year, Bitcoin's price could potentially exceed $100,000, offering substantial returns given the current price around $69,000. Furthermore, Bitcoin's best performance typically happens in the year following a halving, with historical gains exceeding 400%. Significant Institutional Interest and Bitcoin's Role in the Financial Landscape For much of its history, Bitcoin's rise has been driven by retail investors. However, this dynamic is set to change significantly. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs has made it easier for institutional investors with vast capital reserves to invest in the cryptocurrency. This influx of major Wall Street players is likely to exert unprecedented pressure on Bitcoin's finite supply, echoing its early days of high demand. The approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF also reflects the market's current perception of Bitcoin and its role in the financial ecosystem. In contrast, Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, faces ongoing debates over ETF approval as regulators determine whether it is a security or a commodity. This regulatory scrutiny extends to all cryptocurrencies, creating uncertainty about their classification. It's crucial to note that an SEC classification of a cryptocurrency as a security does not spell the end for that blockchain. Many of these assets are highly decentralized and would continue to operate even if faced with litigation from the SEC. Cryptocurrencies are traded globally and are not confined to the laws of any single country. However, regulatory risks are a significant concern for markets. Bitcoin stands out as a relatively safer investment in this regard. The SEC has already classified Bitcoin as a commodity, placing it outside the agency's regulatory control. This classification grants Bitcoin unique staying power and a degree of protection against regulatory scrutiny. Bitcoin's current bullish trend, supported by the recent halving and growing institutional interest, sets the stage for potential substantial price appreciation. The reduced inflation rate and increasing demand create a strong case for Bitcoin's long-term value. Meanwhile, its classification as a commodity provides a safeguard against regulatory risks, further solidifying its position as a leading asset in the cryptocurrency market.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FOREXN1
1
Bitcoin: Push Back To 70Ks?Bitcoin support at the 66K area continues to hold and may be the higher low (wave (iv)) that may lead to a higher high over the coming weeks (see illustration). In order for a dramatic new high like 80K to be tested, price needs to prove itself by clearing 73K first. The key to navigating this is to WAIT for the market to provide evidence (confirmation), NOT get stuck on an opinion about the future. Even though the broader trend is bullish, UNTIL it breaks out, it is within reason to expect the consolidation to continue. Recognizing the support/resistance levels within broader consolidations can help to uncover numerous opportunities, especially on smaller time frames. For example, while I consider the 66K area a minor support on this time frame (see arrow), this location is a great spot to anticipate longs on day trade time frames like the 1 or 5 minute chart. When using such levels as a form of context to guide decisions, traders often do not understand how to shape expectations relative to the magnitude of the time frame. For instance, price movements on a 1 minute chart are typically smaller than a 5 minute or 1 hour chart. Knowing this should shape expectations in terms of reward/risk. This is one of the problems I aimed to solve when coming up with the idea for Trade Scanner Pro by automating the exit points using the average true range (ATR). The same can be said about the 70K whole number resistance area. This is an ideal location to WAIT for sell signals, whether to take profit or an aggressive counter trend trade short. Again the location provides a point of reference where we can anticipate a particular price behavior or opportunity. It is up to the MARKET to confirm and even then, there is a chance it can get stopped out (markets are mostly RANDOM). My analysis is meant to shed light on a select range of possibilities over the coming week for day and swing traders. I have to remind people of this because many come to these articles expecting to gain knowledge of the future. It will take some time to realize effective risk management has NOTHING to do with where price will be in the future. There is no way to forecast the future accurately, ESPECIALLY using the limited information that is available on charts. The idea is to help you prepare for potential opportunities that I believe have a greater probability of a positive outcome because of the price location relative to the trend. The MARKET decides what scenario will play out, not me or anyone else. To align with the market, we must have a passive mindset, good listening skills and the ability to admit being wrong QUICKLY, especially on smaller time frames. So here is how to prepare of the coming week: IF the low 66Ks are tested, look for longs, IF 66K breaks, avoid longs and reevaluate new levels. IF 70K is tested, look to take profits, or consider aggressive shorts (counter trend). IF 70K is cleared, watch for test of 73K. How you navigate your positions is a function of your risk tolerance and personal style. Most importantly, let the market do the THINKING, you simply adjust to the new information as it appears. Thank you for your considering my analysis and perspective.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
9
BITCOIN Inverse Head and Shoulders targeting $79500Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is technically about to complete the Right Shoulder of the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern (IH&S) that followed the All Time High (ATH) of March 14. The driving vessel behind it is a (dotted) Channel Up whose Bullish Leg peaked at +19.50% and its two Bearish Legs so far have been around -8.00%. As you may realize, there is a high degree of structural symmetry on these patterns as even the IH&S has distinct Support and Resistance Zones, with Sour interest currently being on Support Zone 1, which has already held twice since May 23. As a result, as long as it holds along with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), the trend remains bullish and the IH&S technical dynamics target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at $89000. However we keep at the moment a shorter term perspective and before 89k, we will aim at $79500, which would be a +19.50% rise, similar to the Channel's previous Bullish Leg. Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
2
BTCUSD: Entering the parabolic phase.Bitcoin is on excellent bullish levels on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 66.472, MACD = 251.100, ADX = 42.204). Following the correction of the last two months, the market has entered the green zone of the Cycle, which is its parabolic phase. This historic chart on the 1W timeframe shows that this phase lasts around 560 days while the previous blue one, which extends from the bottom of the Cycle, lasts around 500 days. This is a clear indication that at least for a year, Bitcoin will most likely rise parabolically with a possible target zone of 200,000 - 300,000. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by InvestingScope
BITCOIN There is no turning back from this.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has started the 5th Bullish Wave of the current Bull Cycle, following the consolidation of the past 2 months. Since the November 2022 bottom we have had 4 such waves with consolidations ranging from 1 month to 6 months (blue Channel of April 10 - October 10 2023). The current wave can technically take Bitcoin up to $100k alone. What is even more bullish than that though is the fact that the whole (ellipse) structure since the October 2023 Low, resembles the sequences of April 2020 - March 2021 and May - December 2017. As you can see, both were Bullish Legs of the 7-year Channel Up. Symmetrically, it appears that we are past its 2nd consolidation (blue circle) and starting the final rally to the Top of the Channel Up. That means that the Cycle Top can even be marginally higher than $200k until the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is breached again (note that we are past a 1W Bullish Cross also) which can make us start considering a Bull Cycle again. But what do you think? Is this rise just the start of a wave that will take BTC to 100000 even 200000 if history repeats itself? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
2
Bitcoin: 64K To 66K Retrace.Bitcoin pushed into the 70K resistance area over the previous week and retraced. Those who read my articles and watch my streams should not be surprised. My Trade Scanner Pro take profit price is at 72,632 which was missed by a few hundred points (entry was 62,907 on 5/2). As I continue to remind my followers, CONTEXT is key to navigating this consolidation and it can be summarized by two components: Trend, Support/Resistance. To gauge risk, profit potential and probabilities on shorter time horizons, this is ALL you need to know. Before I get into more of an explanation, here is my scenario for the coming week. There was a new buy signal off 69K (inside bar see arrow). While a higher low typically should lead to a higher high, the 70K resistance area is still intact and appears to be in play. IF the current candle closes weak and the next candle takes out its low, a test of 66K to 64K becomes more likely (see illustration). This is just ONE scenario of countless that I anticipate based on the price structure and support/resistance on this time frame (CONTEXT). To be clear, this analysis is meant for those who day trade or swing trade Bitcoin. IF you are only interested in longer time horizons, there is no shortage of 'experts' who will be happy to keep you entertained. So you know, the broader the time horizon, the more RANDOM the outcome. More is NOT better in this game. I estimate that 99% of the information available to the retail trader/investor is nothing more than misinformation or entertainment. Consuming more of it only leads to confusion and random outcomes. This is why I aim to SIMPLIFY by focusing ONLY on information that provides some ACTIONABLE VALUE. This is where TREND and SUPPORT/RESISTANCE come into play. Markets TREND, that fact alone is why we can argue that markets are not 100% random. For the retail trader, this is one of the few areas of the market that can provide some kind of advantage even if temporary. Trend provides a basic gauge of probability. This piece of CONTEXT helps to support/resistance levels into perspective and gives a reference point to better shape expectations. For example, for Bitcoin on this time frame, the broader trend is CLEARLY bullish while the shorter time horizon (going back3 months) is range bound. Recognizing this helps me form reasonable expectations about particular price levels in the future (60K, 64K, 70K, 73K etc). Support/Resistance levels are inflection points where a particular behavior occurred and MAY occur again in the future. While the levels can be broken randomly, knowing trend helps me anticipate which is likely to hold, and which is likely to break. IF the market chooses to compromise a level unexpectedly (it happens) then I ADJUST to the market NOT get stuck on an opinion. For example, in the context of a broader bullish trend, the 70K resistance on Bitcoin should break, and continues to be vulnerable even though a significant break has yet to occur. Context helps to shape expectations in line with MARKET generated information. As NEW information reaches the market, price adjusts, and we must also adjust. This phenomenon is rooted in the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. This is why those who think they can forecast the future from looking at a bunch of lines on a chart are fooling themselves and you. As a retail trader/investor it serves us best to evaluate BOTH sides of the market and assign a probability to each side. From there at least we can gauge risk and profit potential as per a chosen time frame more effectively and not be misinformed by others (too much internet). Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
9
Bitcoin: 64K Test For New Longs.Bitcoin has followed my anticipated scenario nicely over the recent two weeks (it doesn't always agree). As I have written in my previous two articles, the 64K and 68K resistance areas are potential take profit zones, NOT locations to put on more risk. Price action appears to be confirming that and is attempting to retrace off the 66K area minor resistance (See upper arrow). While this price action appears to be bearish it must be considered in light of the broader structure. Since the March peak, Bitcoin has been in consolidation mode (upon completion of 5 waves). This structure represents a broader HIGHER LOW with 56K established as the bottom of the range. This implies that the broader trend continues to be BULLISH even though recent price action has yet to push major resistances. This is a key piece of context because it helps to shape risk and profit potential for the near future. How you navigate this will depend on your risk tolerance and trade style but no matter how you look at it, current prices are unattractive for longs on most time horizons in my opinion. The scenario I anticipate this week (see illustration) is a minor retrace to 64K (old resistance/new support) followed by a momentum continuation into the 70K resistance. If a long confirmation appears (Trade Scanner Pro), this can play out well for traders on shorter time horizons. While I am optimistic in this regard, I also consider that price CAN break 64K and test 60K again. There is NO way to forecast how the market will behave, ESPECIALLY the longer the time horizon. Managing risk and capitalizing on movements EFFECTIVELY requires knowing how to evaluate market structure in order to stack probabilities. Based on this context if I can determine the trend is bullish for example, I can estimate that supports have a greater than 50% chance of staying intact. I can also expect long signals to have greater than 50% chance of generating some amount of profit, but there is no way to anticipate how much exactly (markets are MOSTLY RANDOM). Adjusting to price action and looking for signal conflicts or using a trailing stop helps to improve decision making in such an environment. If you get stuck on ideas, cling to hope or consume too much internet, you will soon learn how ineffective this is. The market is a great teacher but the lessons are often VERY EXPENSIVE. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
32
#Bitcoin [ Inverted Head And Shoulders - Short Squeeze Combo ] BTCUSD has printed an allbeit slanted yet very nice inverted head and shoulders that has retested and played out perfectly so far. The measured move coincides with multiple high time frame short liquidation levels (Not marked on this chart) with the biggest level being a 6 MONTH high volume liquidation level at $74,045. This strong of a #shortsqueeze could easily amplify the measured move, which I have extended, using the 150%-161.8% fib levels. The extension also lines right up with where all short liquidation levels end on the Coinglass heat map.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by DoozerInvest
BITCOIN starting a mega rally. See when alts will follow.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just completed the final consolidation phase (red Rectangle) that as per the price action of past Cycles, is the final stage before the 1-year rally to the new Top. As you can see alt coin market (black trend-line) tends to bottom after Bitcoin's rally has already started and when it turns sideways again for a few weeks. Technically alts make that 2nd major Higher Low on their Cycle and rebound when BTC investors take some profits and direct a certain portion of capital to the riskier but more generous in terms of returns, altcoin market. So if you're wondering what to do next, be bullish on BTC and as the new rally extends, start taking profits towards August and make sure you're invested in alts. The lower their dominance is by then, the better. Do you agree with this approach? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
2
Bitcoin: New Buy Signal Off 60K.Bitcoin has found overall support just off the 56K level (on my chart) and has rallied back to the 64K resistance only to retest the 60K level (see illustration on chart). This is the scenario I described in my previous article and price is now in an ideal location for a swing trade long on this time frame. Interestingly enough, my Trade Scanner Pro system generated a long signal upon the close in the 64K area which I warned people against taking. Now is the time to be using the system to look for longs on smaller time frames such as the 1 hour. When using this system (or ANY system) CONTEXT is key. Context comes in many forms, but when it comes to my trend following momentum reversal system, it is all about trend relative to support/resistance levels. These two components are ALL you need to identify higher probability signals vs. more random signals or noise. It is best to think of the signals as a form of confirmation. For example, the 60K area for Bitcoin is CLEARLY a major support level. While there is no guarantee long signals will produce an positive outcome from that level, there is a GREATER probability since price has reacted in this way MULTIPLE times over the previous few months. With or without a system, it is better to be looking for buying opportunities at such a level. The more important question is how much to risk? Typically on this time frame you are looking at about 1500 pts. based on the recent candle stick pattern. The Trade Scanner is showing even greater risk, but also a greater potential reward (TP is near 72K). Again,CONTEXT carries more weight in these situations. While 72K is a possibility since the broader trend is still bullish, it is better to expect less in a consolidating environment. Using the 64K, and 68 to 70K resistance areas would be better choices in my opinion which puts reward/risk between 2.5:1 to greater than 4:1. Expecting LESS means IF price reaches the first resistance, TAKE something off the table. It is very important to understand that markets are MOSTLY RANDOM (I repeat this A LOT). This means NO system or analyst can accurately forecast where price will be in the future consistently. Price is determined by the perception of the active market participants, which can be retail traders, institutions, algos, etc. And all of these participants buy and sell for numerous reasons. What drives prices one way or the other are when there are large imbalances in the order flow. This is why a piece of unexpected news can come out of nowhere and completely change the participants perception of the future. Just two months ago, Bitcoin was going to be at 100K by now based on what the internet gurus were forecasting. No one was calling for a test of 56K when price was pushing 73K. This game is about probability and risk, NOT about how "early investors will make billions". There is a misconception that investors outperform traders and if you comparing the average investor to the average trader this statement may hold true. The part they don't mention though is that investors ASSUME MORE RISK since they are always in the market. People who happen to buy at LOW prices will outperform, but what about the people who buy near the top? This is when the average investor typically buys because the market looks its greatest (and the internet hype is the loudest). To outperform the typical investor or trader, you still need to have a way to gauge context: how low is low? how high is too high? And these questions are ALL a function of how much RISK you are willing to take. Profitability comes from good RISK management which is rooted in gauging opportunities that carry a greater potential relative to the associated risk. And this can be accomplished by knowing how to evaluate CONTEXT. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
10
BITCOIN Another 1D MA50 rejection. More bleeding ahead?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke again below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) after the 3rd rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) in almost 1 month (since the April 13 bearish break-out). If it stays unbroken, it is a far from ideal development as the 1-year price action has shown us that such a pattern risks making a Lower Low. The technical structure since April 08 is a Channel Down nonetheless, so such feat is certainly possible on the short-term. As you can see from past 1D MA50 bearish break-outs, BTC tends to get more than 2 rejections and excluding January 2024, it has stayed below the 1D MA100 for longer. What's interesting is that if that Lower Low is made, it wouldn't just make a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) test, but would also almost complete a -30% decline from the recent All Time High. Something that during Bull Cycle rallies is perfectly natural for Bitcoin. SO do you think the market will go for it?? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
11
BITCOIN Nothing to stop this Channel reaching 100k.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is trading within the Rally Channel (green) with the price having already reached its bottom, making the 2nd Higher Low of the pattern. This is the very same pattern that emerged in the previous Cycle after the Growth Channel Up and took BTC to its new All Time High (ATH) at the time. Both Growth Channels had a crash event below them, the previous Cycle even had a bubble event above it (Libra euphoria). But once the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) turned into a Support after the Halving, the Bitcoin rally never looked back. The 1W STOCH indicator, which is very similar to the past Cycle as well, shows that we might even be much earlier in the Cycle symmetrically than we think of. In any case the next two Higher Highs for the Rally Channel are $100k and $140k. But what do you think? Are those Targets even plausible, let alone achievable by the end of Summer? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
7
USDT Dominance just failed and doing BTC a huge favor!On this chart we see a major development on the USDT Dominance (USDT.D). It formed its first ever Death Cross on the 5D time-frame, with the MA200 (orange trend-line) turning into Resistance since the start of February. That has never happened in its history and as you can see, when USDT.D declines, Bitcoin (black trend-line) rallies, which has been doing so aggressively since early October 2023. This is a sign that the current rally on BTCUSD might be far from over and if anything can even be much more aggressively than we initially thought. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by TradingShot
3
XRPUSDT → Ripple prepares for 70% growth ↑BINANCE:XRPUSDT is forming a technical false break of support, in the long term consolidation above the zone should be formed with the purpose of continuation of growth, the potential of which can be opened by 50-70% The price on W1 is squeezed within the triangle. Another attempt to retest the resistance zone is being formed. At the moment, the market is restrained from strong growth by the proceedings between the SEC and XRP. Ripple recently announced that they are willing to pay a $10 million fine instead of $2 billion, while two strong lawyers are resigning from the SEC. The upside potential will be a price consolidation above the 0.500 area and on a breakout of 0.73. Support levels: 0.5000, 0.4226 Resistance levels: 0.6431, 0.7325, 0.8547 If the legal nuances are closed soon, a new bullish time will come for XRP and Ripple will start to conquer new peaks. Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
12
Bitcoin: Watch For Pullback 60K.Bitcoin has retraced off the 56,400 area support (level has been on this chart for months), straight back to 64K. The arrows on the chart point to the consecutive lows that characterize a failed low pattern. This brings price to a tricky area for new swing trades. The 64K area is a resistance and NOT an ideal spot for new longs on this time frame. In this scenario I am waiting for the retrace (see illustration) back to 60K support to look for swing trade long signals. In fact my system (Trade Scanner Pro) is showing a long at the current price on this time frame, but the risk is enormous (like 7K points). This is where having a good grasp of context can help to filter out such low probability signals. Identifying RELEVANT support/resistance levels in advance provides a way to ANTICIPATE price behavior and offers an effective reference point to expect signals. Not to mention the boost of confidence that comes from the preparedness when the signals appears. It is also important to understand that when using conventional methods to evaluate ANY market, the random nature will most likely lead to a 50% probability of being right. Most traders (especially beginners) place heavy emphasis on being right (high win rate) and do not realize that is the equivalent of expecting a high win rate from a slot machine. Slot machines are 100% random (in theory anyway) while the market is not because markets trend. This means there is a chance to beat the market BUT it requires strong knowledge of inefficiencies and typical trader behavioral patterns (not common tools like RSI). I mention this because the illustrations on my chart that represent the scenario that I am anticipating for the coming week are not always right and nor do I expect them to be. These are not forecasts, these are ideal patterns that I would like to see in order to confirm some kind of action or decision. It is basically a big IF. I have no clue where the markets are going, instead I come up with an estimate based on recent history and then ADJUST to what the market actually chooses to do from there. ADJUSTING is KEY. The sooner you accept this idea, the sooner you will begin to appreciate high value market information vs. the 99% of nonsense that most traders consume (too much internet!). Less is MORE in this game simply because most of what is publicly available does NOT improve your chances of positive outcome over time. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
7