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Bitcoin-btcusd-btc

Bitcoin: The Halving Range.Bitcoin appears to be in a consolidation (see converging lines on chart) as the halving event nears. Makes sense, especially since events like this tend to be "buy the rumor, sell the news". There is no way to know how Bitcoin will react going into the halving because there are many factors in play, often too many to effectively act upon. Many like to resort to history, but history does NOT repeat itself exactly the same way every time. The illustration on this chart shows the scenario that I am anticipating for the coming week. As of now, IF 68,850 is compromised, a new swing trade buy signal will be in effect on this time frame. IF the consolidation stays intact, then it is not likely to go very far (71K area resistance). This means a better way to participate is day trade with low expectations. I repeat that a lot because MOST of the time, there is little to no opportunities on the larger time frames that make sense in terms of the associated RISK. Sure you can enter at any price and it MAY go your way, but how much risk are you taking? Big wins with high risk = unsustainable account performance (exchanges, forex dealers, prop firms and casinos LOVE this idea). Another way to capitalize on this consolidation is to WAIT for supports to be tested such as the 66K and 64K levels. If 64K is compromised, a test of 60K becomes much more likely which would extend the range of the consolidation. Upon testing such levels, waiting for confirmation before entering is key because markets are HIGHLY random and there is no guarantee supports hold. Technical analysis helps to develop a plan, evaluate risk and manage expectations. It is NOT a method to forecast the future as many believe. Anything can happen, any time, all it takes is an unexpected piece of news. The information I provide here is to help you operate under a realistic set of expectations as defined by historical MARKET structure, NOT how I feel or think. Realize that this is actually a game of information. Whoever has the best information will profit from the majority of participants who "believe" they are acting on useful information. As a short term oriented trader, I am not trying to be "right". I am trying to gain insight into areas of price behavior that may offer a greater probability of a positive outcome. In other words looking for price action clues that point to repetitive behaviors that I can capitalize on. Let that sink in before consuming another Youtube video featuring a rocket ship. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
Editors' picks
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
38
BITCOIN hit a record 7 straight green months! NOT APRIL FOOL'S !Yes it is not April Fool's, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just closed a record 7 straight months of gains for the first time in history. Since it's inception, there hasn't been an exchange where BTC made more than 6 bullish monthly (1M) candles in a row. What started in September 2023 as merely a hold and bottom formation on the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), eventually evolved into a record breaking sequence. In fact, Bitcoin has only had 3 red months in the past 15, which makes the feat even more impressive! Being the lengthiest such bullish sequence in history, doesn't mean that the rally is over. In fact, we can argue that it has only just begun as based on the 1M RSI, which is trading within the 0.786 - 0.618 Fibonacci Channel range, we are on symmetrical terms relative to past Bull Cycles, where the price was on November 2020, February 2017 and February 2013. We can see that this is an impressive symmetry, and shows that we are at a point far from the cyclical peak. The previous 3 Cycles topped 12, 10 and 10 months from that RSI position respectively. If this continues, we can expect Bitcoin to rally for at least another 10 months before the Cycle peaks and the RSI approaches the Channel Top where we can gradually start taking profit! But what do you think? Does this impressive 7-month bullish streak still have at least 10-month fuel in it? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
14
Bitcoin: 73K Break Or Fake?Bitcoin continues to flirt with the 70K resistance zone (blue rectangle on chart) and has followed the first leg of my previous chart illustration. With the halving coming very soon, there continues to be over exaggerated claims of Bitcoin "going to 100K by next month" nonsense. Again stop listening to people, LISTEN TO PRICE. Let me explain some scenarios to watch for this week. First, realize that my analysis and perspective is for the short term trader. NOT the investor. My time horizon for my articles is typically 1 to 2 WEEKS out. If you are an investor wondering if you should invest, this analysis will not be helpful. As a quick note, when prices are flirting with all time highs, and looks its best, it is usually NOT a good time to be investing, especially with leveraged products. As for scenarios for this week: you will notice an arrow pointing to the previous all time high and a blue rectangle between 73,500 and 76,500 AREAs. This is the high probability bearish reversal zone of fake out zone. If Bitcoin is going to fake out, this area is where it is most likely to begin. Watch for bearish pin bars, bearish engulfing candles, etc on the larger time frames. Keep in mind if price is pushing into the 76K area, it is going to get a LOT of attention by the hype machine. Meanwhile these are highly vulnerable prices for longs. IF price retraces from this area, it can still considered a B wave, and can find support in the 64K to 60K support areas. I would NOT be overly bearish in this scenario, it is more likely to consolidate recent gains rather than become a "bear market". Markets are NOT binary nor are they simple. Many forces are in play simultaneously and it would take a major catalyst to surprise the market in order to initiate a "bear market" or a broader correction. As of now, there is a new swing trade long signal in effect from the 70,500 area. Since it is appearing inside a resistance zone, it is less than ideal and carries greater risk. This could be the beginning of the push the 73K test and fake out scenario I just described. In situations like this, (trend continuation signals at unattractive prices) it is best to work on smaller time frames in order to compensate for the greater risk. Day and swing trades that carry LOW expectations. Like a push into the 71.5 or 72K area is within reason for these type of strategies. Expecting 80K, etc. is much less reasonable in terms of probability. Another important thing to note: similar to the reversal zone from 73,5 to 76.5, there is a larger magnitude zone (not on this chart) that spans as high as 83K. Which means over the next few MONTHS, Bitcoin can probe this area before a broader correction ensues. IF we see this, the mega internet hype can be relentless and strongly placate to your GREED. Make sure to understand, markets move in CYCLES not straight lines. IF a correction begins from this larger magnitude fake out zone, it will likely be steeper and longer than most expect. I am not being bearish or pessimistic, I am simply pointing out the potential risk. I understand how many can get frustrated with my warnings and claim that it costs "money" by missing out on greater valuations. This feeling is rooted in greed and all I can say is the market is a much more expensive educator than I am. Missing out has to do with how willing you are to take risk, and I learned the hard way that the key to this game is taking SMALL risks and is the position that I write from. There is no way to know where the market will be in the future, all we can do is MEASURE the potential and the RISK. From there only only you can decide how to go about participating. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
27
BITCOIN immediate target is 78k based on this SPX fractal.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is currently repeating on its 4H time-frame a fractal of S&P500 (SPX) on its 1W time-frame. As BTC is pulling back towards the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and a Bullish Cross is about to be formed, the symmetric development on the S&P500 fractal indicates that this Bullish Cross should be treated as a Buy Signal. On S&P500 it started the aggressive rally that the market is currently still on. As you can see, both fractals started with a Bearish Megaphone after their respective tops, hit and held their MA200 (orange trend-line), while a MA50/ MA100 Bearish Cross marked the Bottom. The Channel Up that emerged led the recovery. From an RSI perspective a similar Channel Up took both to the overbought territory after an oversold Double Bottom, which was an additional Buy Signal. As a result, for BTC we are now on the 0.786 rejection phase and after this pull-back is completed, the S&P500 fractal suggests that the target should be just shy off the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. We therefore have $78000 as our immediate Target. Do you think it can be achieved on such a short period of time? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
3
Bitcoin: 73K Test Or Not?Bitcoin has peaked in the 73K Area which completed the 5th of the 5th wave. I specifically mentioned this in my previous article when I said "THE PARTY IS OVER". If you were fooled by the internet hype, you can only blame your own greed. Markets don't unfold in straight lines, they unfold in cycles and now we are in a corrective one. Let me explain what I am anticipating over the coming week in light of this scenario. I have to mention that I have seen numerous videos showcasing tons of tables and graphs that show promising facts and figures. This is great for entertainment, but it FAILS to address RISK, especially on the short term. IF the underlying catalyst for the recent rally in Bitcoin is no longer in play, price can consolidate for weeks or months before a new catalyst comes along, and there is NO guarantee it will be positive. It is UNKNOWN, which is why it is better to get good at calculating RISK instead of indulging in dreams. I am not a pessimist NOR bearish on Bitcoin, I am realistic and FOLLOW the story of PRICE which I found to be the best way to gauge RISK. Now let me explain my chart: the lower blue rectangle (58 to 60K AREA) is a high probability BULLISH reversal zone. IF price can test this area throughout the week, I will be looking for reversal patterns for a swing trade long. Profit potential can be estimated in the mid to high 60Ks. While ANYTHING is possible, I am not willing to bet on a higher high because we are likely in a corrective phase. Currently, price is attempting to take out an inside bar for a swing trade long (break of 66K). What makes this less attractive is it is not in the reversal zone so I would consider is a 50% probability. The next leg higher may be the B wave which is the one that usually makes the lower high (see chart). Which means again, I would not expect the next leg to compromise the 73K area all time high. The blue rectangle in the 70K area is the high probability BEARISH reversal zone. This is a good area to gauge profit potential or look for aggressive short setups. Buying in this area, ESPECIALLY for investors is HIGH RISK. The lines drawn on the chart illustrate one scenario (consolidation) that I am anticipating over the next week or so. Best way to navigate this is using day trade or swing trade strategies and waiting for a price action confirmation in a reversal zone. Markets are motivated by greed and fear which makes movements IRRATIONAL. Most participants are not even aware of how their own motivations blind them to the liabilities of being part of the herd. In this game, opportunities are often found by exploiting the mistakes of others. To recognize those mistakes you first have to remove yourself from the mindset of greed which is at the root of these opportunities. You can begin by changing the information that you are naturally drawn to. Less logical "facts and figures" that are irrelevant in a game that is highly random, and more on the emotional patterns and tendencies that can only be expressed by price itself. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
24
BITCOIN Is $175000 so easy to achieve?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke its All Time High (ATH) this month, making history once again. The quest for the rest of the month is to close the March 1M candle above the previous ATH (69000). Why is this important? Because every time it did so in the past on each and every Cycle, the price never looked back and it entered the most aggressive part of the Bull Cycle: the Parabolic Break-out Phase. This has coincided with the 1M RSI breaking above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of the Fibonacci Channel Down. As you can see on the chart every time it did so, it reached (or almost) the top of the Channel Down (blue circle) while the price hit the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. During the first 2 Cycles the price went on even considerably higher than that (red rectangle) before the Cycle peaked, while the 1M RSI again hit the top of the Channel Down. During the previous (most recent) Cycle though, there was no 2nd RSI top, as the price only marginally exceeded the 1.618 Fib with its 2nd top, in fact it didn't even close a 1M candle above it. As a result, we may have a similar 'Double Top' Cycle this time also, but that's just the modest scenario. In any case the 1.618 Fib extension is now priced at $175000, which technically is a 'certainty' (if you can ever say that in investing) based on this historic chart and the Target of this Cycle. But what do you think? Is $175k a given and if yes, will BTC surpass the 1.618 Fib for an even higher Cycle Top? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
12
BITCOIN New bottom formed. Rally could aim well above $100k.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is at the early stages of a new parabolic rally, similar to January - March, as a key bullish development took place. The 1D RSI hit the 50.00 neutral (middle) level for the first time since breaking above it on January 26 2024 and rebounded, while keeping the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) intact. This is a strong bullish signal for the Bull Cycle. BTC has been within a range for the majority of this month and last time all those parameters emerged together was in late November - early December 2020. At that time, Bitcoin also hit the 50.00 RSI level, held above the 1D MA50 and after being ranged for almost a month, it started a new parabolic bullish leg towards the 6.0 Fibonacci extension before the next 1D MA50 pull-back. As you can see, both sequences capped a roughly +100% rise since the previous Lows where the price made contact with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and eventually bounced. The 1D MA100 wasn't touched again for almost 7 months, not before BTC approached the 8.0 Fib extension, completing a +563% rise from that Low. The fractals are virtually identical so far and if the current price action continues to replicate 2020/ 2021, we expect the 1D RSI to hit 90.00 again before retracing. If $100k isn't hit at that time, we will book profits regardless and buy again on the next 1D MA50 contact. Until then, $100k is our next Target. But what do you think? Is 100k a realistic target that soon and if yes can Bitcoin repeat 2021 to its full extent and even reach 250k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
18
Bitcoin: Correction Just Starting.Bitcoin is now correcting from the 73K all time high, just above my short term high probability reversal zone (upper blue rectangle). Prices between 64.5 and 69K were highly vulnerable to this type of move to begin with and coupled with the 10K retrace of two weeks ago, there was plenty of warning for investors who understand markets. I hope you were NOT one of those who were convinced this was going to 100K in the next month or so. As I have been pointing out repeatedly in my streams, the completion of 5 waves usually means THE PARTY IS OVER. What that means is Bitcoin is likely to be in a corrective structure over the next few months. Corrective waves typically unfold in three legs. The first leg, Wave A, can find support somewhere around 64,500 OR the 60K AREA. There is NO WAY to know how the market will play out in advance. These levels were previous resistances which are now likely to act as supports. Buying after price action confirmation makes sense for day and swing trades, but these are FAR from ideal investing levels. Markets move in cycles, NOT straight lines. Buying this too early (which many will do) will result in taking a lot of unexpected pain. IF 60K happens to break, you are looking at 58K, 55K and 52K areas for supports. These are points of reference to evaluate further. In situations like this, particularly for swing trades, it is best to wait for some type of complex reversal pattern like a double bottom either on this time frame or something like a 4H (which is what my bot uses). The coming corrective structure is NOT to be misunderstood as a "bear" market. It is more likely to be a bullish consolidation which can eventually lead to a positive break out. A great example of this is Gold. For a number of years gold has been in a higher low bullish consolidation and just recently broke out. During that time, especially at the break out attempts all the hype promoted "5K next month" nonsense getting people to buy into those high risk prices. Be prepared for the same nonsense with Bitcoin. I often get asked "what is Bitcoin going to do next?" and the answer is I have NO idea. People who ask this are missing the point. Navigating the markets for profit has NOTHING to do with trying to figure out what will happen next. IT is about evaluating a range of high probability scenarios on BOTH sides of the market. This can be done with historical price information like we find on a chart. Once you have narrowed a reasonable range of scenarios, you can then prepare, and WAIT for the market to confirm which path IT decides to choose.Only then can your risk management plan go into effect. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
23
BITCOIN The ETF multiyear rally has only just begun(Gold's case)With Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) continuous bullish run, day after day, running basically the 7th straight green month, we thought it may be a good time to put things into a greater perspective from a macro point of view, as many seem confused over this hyper aggressive bullish sentiment. The reason is one and one alone and has a very short name: E T F Yes, everyone that is following the market knows that on January 11 2024, the first Bitcoin ETF was launched on the U.S. market and after a quick dip, the price has been rising every since. Other macro factors are playing their role, such as the AI technological innovation, the upcoming Halving, the anticipation of Fed rate cuts by June etc. But BTC has never made a new All Time High (ATH) before the Halving before, and this is primarily attributed to the ETFs introduction. What better case to compare Bitcoin's price action to Gold's following its own ETF launch. That was done on March 28 2003 and the result you can see on the right hand chart. Gold used its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as a Support to fuel an 8 year parabolic rally, which only broken during the shock of the 2008 Housing Crisis, but still managed to recover the extend the rally until August 2011. That peak almost on the 4.0 Fibonacci extension level from the High (January 1996) that preceded Gold's ETF. If Bitcoin follows a similar trend to Gold's (note that Gold's market cap is around $14.530 Trillion, while BTC's is 'only' $1.445 Trillion), it can reach and even surpass emphatically the $1000000 mark (the 4.0 Fib for Bitcoin is at $6 million). Crazy as this may sound (well that's Bitcoin's life story, everything has been 'crazy' at $1, then $10, $100, it was deemed expensive by some even at $1000 and so on), there is no time restriction nor the necessity to reach seemingly extraordinary levels in 8 years or 10. As the market matures, fiat currencies are devalued by more inflation etc, and adoption is accelerated, this may be a process that takes up 15, 20, 30 years. The key, not just for fund managers but also average investors, is to hold Bitcoin in their portfolios just as it has been paying off since 2003 to hold Gold. Buy what do you think about these two assets and their potential similarities of their post ETF trends? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
16
BITCOIN hit 70k! Can a 60k pull-back deliver 100k in 3 months?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke the $70000 psychological barrier today, smashing yet again a benchmark level during this Bull Cycle and on a momentum basis, it does not give any signs of stopping. However based on the 2020 post-COVID crash fractal, which started after the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crossed above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), and that BTC has been following on an almost identical trade for the past 1 year (since March 2020), the price may experience a short-term pull-back at this stage. If the fractal continues to play out, then a $60000 correction towards the end of the month, may come as a technical necessity is Bitcoin is to see a new High as we get closer to April's Halving. As you can see, even the 1D RSI sequences between the two fractals are quite similar. Based on that fractal we may even see Bitcoin at $100000 as early as June! Do you agree with that? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
7
Bitcoin in accumulation phase since last channel cross⭐️🚨🚨🚨Bitcoin in accumulation phase since last channel cross⭐️🚨🚨🚨 We stay in this phase until BTC closes above the channel and the pre-bull run begins Like & Follow if you are accumulating dear Crypto Nation🤗 Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Disclaimer: Not financial advice Do your own research before investing The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Crypto4Everybody
6
BITCOIN What is next narrative it will break?Since th 2021 Bear Cycle started, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) entered a phase that few could have predicted. You can very easily even call it the 'Cycle of Narrative Destruction' as since the June 13 2022 break below the previous All Time High (ATH), Bitcoin started breaking narratives that have been well established throughout its history and few thought could break. ** Five major narrative breaks so far ** Starting from the very first narrative destruction on the week of June 13 2022 (we are viewing this chart on the 1W time-frame), Bitcoin managed to break below the previous ATH (19350) for the first every in its history. Then a few months later in November 2022 in the aftermath of the FTX crash, it broke below the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) also for the first time ever. This resulted into the first ever 1W Death Cross around February 2023 and following the recovery during 2023, it naturally formed the first ever 1W Golden Cross around the last week of December first week of January 2024. The most recent narrative that BTC has destroyed was this week as it made a new ATH marginally above $69000, which was the first time it did so before the Cycle's Halving (which is due in mid April 2024). ** Which narrative is next to break? ** As you can see, those are 5 major narrative breaks in the span of 18 months. So what narrative will BTC break next? The first that comes to our mind as the market is rising that fast this high, is the Theory of Diminishing Returns (TODR). This theory implies (and has been correct so far) that each Cycle delivers lower returns than the previous. As you see on the charts, the first Cycle gave +531681% returns, the next one +62325%, then +11808% and the most recent +2051%. ** So 330k is realistic?? ** If this narrative is to break, it means that BTC would need to make a little over +2051% during the current Cycle. That suggests that we can be looking at a Cycle peak above $330000! Of course if that happens, it would mean that Bitcoin will also break above its historic Parabolic Growth Channel, which can be considered another narrative destruction. But what do you think? Can the Theory of Diminishing Returns be the next narrative to break and if not, which one do you think it will be? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
12
BITCOIN Perfect symmetry shows $170k!This chart on the 1W time-frame shows how symmetric Bitcoin's price action has been before and after the March 2020 COVID crash with the price action has been before and after the November 2022 FTX crash. Both within the long-term structure of a Channel Up, the bottomed below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), turned a Resistance into Support when the rally really took off, while the 1W RSI was ascending on a Channel Up. Within this nearly 7 year Channel Up, BTC made its two Higher Highs peaks after a +1000% rally, which indicates that is the standard for the pattern. A repeat of a +1000% rise from the November 2022 bottom gives us a projected peak around $170000! How realistic do you think that is? Do you agree with that model? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
5
Bitcoin: 5th Wave Completion?Bitcoin has rallied over 10K points from the 52K break out level that I wrote about in my previous article and refuses to deliver a meaningful pullback. In situations like this, you must not give in the the hype and fear of missing out. I see talk of 100K, etc. and all the video titles popping up on my feeds. What you should be focused on is how to best participate in this while acknowledging the magnitude of risk that comes along with it (no one talks about the risk). My chart now shows the label Wave 5?. Clearly 5 waves can be counted which makes this the 5th of a 5th wave. Within this 5th wave, there appears to be 4 subwaves which implies one more leg higher (see higher low consolidation between 60,300 and 63,500). This next bullish leg can test the 64,500 resistance or even the 69K all time high. This is also where MOST retail traders will think this market looks the greatest, and has the most potential, especially when the herd mentality hype machine pushes this idea. In reality, the opposite is true. What most traders do not realize is that corrective structures tend to follow 5th waves. In this case, it would be a broader corrective move that points to the potential scenario of price testing the 50K or even 40K level. This is NOT a forecast, this is the potential RISK that no one it talking about. Such a bearish scenario can take weeks or months to unfold so it is no something to expect tomorrow. Many traders are frustrated because they missed the home run, and they are not sure how to go about participating in this. Here is my suggestion: day trades only, long side only. Look for a pullback or break out on smaller time frames like 30 minute. For example, right now, the 63,500 range high is the next break out resistance. If price pushes through, that can qualify as an aggressive long day trade with the expectations of testing the 64K area. Expecting more puts you at greater risk of getting caught in a broader retrace. The ones who will get caught in this are the ones who believe whatever they are told. While anything is possible, it is the potential risk that will eventually be realized. All those who bought at 50K now "feel good" because the market has reinforced this high risk behavior. When the broader correction unfolds, it is these same people who get stuck because they are caught between greed and the fear of missing out. Broader corrective moves begin OUT OF NOWHERE. Usually coincides with some unexpected news. Do you remember what turned this market around the first time at 69K? Markets tend to move in cycles NOT in straight lines. Growth is followed by corrections, but there is no way to know how long or how far each cycle will persist. What we can measure is the potential risk, and that is what the basis of your judgement should be, NOT "100K is next!" because Bozo the Youtuber said so. In these situations it is more effective to take profits at highs, trade smaller and on lower time frames and expect LESS. Things always look the greatest at the top. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
44
BITCOIN Today's monthly closing can start a rally to $81000!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is closing the monthly (1M) candle today and to the surprise of most, it is near the November 2021 All Time High (ATH). In fact it is exactly at the level where the ATH monthly candle (Nov 2021) made its closing. As a result if the month of February closes today above it, we will have a new ATH monthly closing! ** The importance of the monthly closing ** Why is that so important? Because every time in history BTC closed a 1M candle above the closing of the previous ATH candle closing, it started the Parabolic Rally Phase of the Bull Cycle and never looked back until the Cycle top. This is a key level as there were 2 times it got tested but as the 1M candle didn't close above the previous ATH candle closing (August 2012 and June 2019), the price got rejected and took numerous more months before the next test and eventual break-out. ** The 1M RSI and Fib bands ** It is important to highlight that on the tests that were successful and made a new 1M candle close above the previous ATH candle closing, the 1M RSI was overbought above 70.00 (blue circle and arrow), while the 2 times it failed, the RSI was below 70.00. Also during those successful tests, the 1M candle was recently detached from the Fib MA Multiple 3 (blue trend-line) and in reached Multiple 5 (yellow trend-line) within the next 2 months maximum. ** What's next if successful? ** This indicates that if today's monthly candle closes above our critical level, we should see $81000 by April! And if you want to make a rough estimate of the top of the Cycle, it should be at or marginally below Multiple 7 (red trend-line) with a fair projection being $150000. You should also consider to start profit taking once the 1M RSI approaches its historic Lower Highs trend-line, which has timed the pricings of all Cycle tops. And with the exception of the last one, that was on a Double Top on the Lower Highs. But what do you think? Will Bitcoin makes a closing above the ATH 1M candle closing today and if so, will it hit 81k by April? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
8
BITCOIN, Massive Broadening Wedge, Targets Active + ETF Volume.Hello There! Welcome to my new analysis of BITCOIN in the daily timeframe perspective. The current bull run is still holding on and BITCOIN does not back off and is printing one hew high after the other. This uptrend is backed by real events that support the bullish case such as the Bitcoin ETFs release which is the preliminary fundament of new and fresh volume moving into the whole cryptocurrency market. When considering the developing dynamics in my technical chart perspective now it has to be pointed out that BITCOIN since it bounced several times within the 50-EMA established the ability to form this gigantic broadening wedge formation. Recently BITCOIN formed the crucial breakout above the upper boundary of the formation above which it is now developing a main bullish triangle continuation formation. There is also a major wave count ongoing which is supporting the broadening wedge development as the major waves A and B already formed the fundament of the broadening wedge BITCOIN is now continuing to form the wave C simultaneously with the bullish expansion wave. What is also an important factor that is stabilizing the bullish trend here is the horizontal support marked in orange. Taking all these factors into consideration the most meaningful insight here is that BITCOIN now activated the main target zones with the initial target zone to be reached once the bullish continuation triangle has completed with the continued extensive bullish breakouts. Once the initial target zone has been reached and the bullish BTC ETF volume is holding on together with bullish technicals the final target zone will be reached. Thank you everybody for watching my idea about BITCOIN! Support is greatly appreciated. VP
INDEX:BTCUSD
by VincePrince
12