Bitcoin: 52K Break Out Starts Wave 5?Bitcoin continues to find support around the 50,500 area. This is particularly important for intraday strategies. The consolidation that Bitcoin is within is still part of what looks like a Wave 4 configuration. This wave can expand to 48K and even lower and still maintain the integrity of the broader bullish impulse structure. The idea here is to look for trade signals that align with this structure, can capture at least of portion of the next leg higher which can potentially test the 56K area.
Not much has changed on the bigger picture. The 48K area is still the next major support in play. The ideal swing trade scenario would be a test of 48K over the coming week followed by a bullish reversal pattern (see line illustration on chart). I have been describing this scenario for some weeks now and the market simply does not deliver this opportunity.
Keep in mind there is no guarantee the market will present this pull back scenario, AND it is also possible for 48K to break while still maintaining a broader bullish structure. As long as Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1, it would be reasonable to consider longs on the bigger picture.
It is important to WAIT for the setup, especially when it comes to a swing trade. What if 48K is never touched and 50K holds? Then the event to watch for is the bullish break out of 52K. Such a move can lead to a test of the 56K area or higher IF momentum persists. This is what I am considering to be the Wave 5. As I have pointed out many times, once this wave completes, a broader corrective wave is likely to follow and risk on the long side increases dramatically.
All you need to make adequate decisions are just a few essential elements that paint a realistic picture based on price. Trend, support/resistance, candlestick and price patterns draw from recent price history and provide a routine way to gauge potential movements in the near future. These elements can be evaluated on any time frame, and can serve investors as well as day traders alike.
Over complicating analysis is a common mistake which is often part of a larger problem: most traders/investors are unable to think beyond the limitations of their own human nature. This is precisely why the herd mentality exists and offers opportunities to those who recognize it in themselves and others.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
Bitcoin-btcusd-btc
Pi Cycle Indicates The Bottom of Bitcoin.Pi cycle indicator has shown a bottom signal in July month, that’s the third time in the history of bitcoin.
This indicator accurately predicted the 2015 and 2018 bitcoin bottom.
If this indicator works for the third time then we are at the bottom of the bitcoin bear cycle.
Thanks
Hexa
BITCOIN just made the most important 1W closing of this Cycle!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) made last week a closing that is going under the radar by the market. The closing of the last 1W candle was made above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level from the November 2021 All Time High (ATH). But why is that of such a significant value? Because every time in BTC's history it closed a 1W candle above the 0.786 Fib of the ATH, the price never closed below it again.
In fact we can claim that for every past Cycle, such a 1W closing is the final confirmation for the start of the Parabolic Rally. It has to be noted that after such closing, Bitcoin made new ATH in maximum 2 months! That suggests we could see a new Historic High at the time of the Halving! Are just starting the new rally?
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: 52K High New Wave Count.Bitcoin has pushed the 50K resistance area and peaked in the 52Ks. The recent bearish pin bar has signaled a swing trade short which is not following through (no surprise there). Over the coming week it is within reason to see a retest of the 48K area support. This is the price location where a high probability swing trade long setup can appear and where I am preparing for a signal.
In my previous articles, you will notice that I had a "B?" in the 46 to 48K resistance area. That was what I was waiting for the market to confirm, but the market never confirmed. We got a resistance break and run to 52K instead. A move like this calls for a new wave count which you can see on my chart now.
This illustrates an important point: you cannot get married to wave counts because the market does whatever IT wants to do. One drawback to wave counts is you have to relabel after the fact. They only serve as a basic guide that the market will either confirm or NOT.
The new wave count presents an impulse wave with 3 legs complete, with a potential 4th wave developing. This implies there is one more wave higher which can lead price into the 55K or 60K areas over the next few weeks (IF it follows through). This impulse would actually be the 5th wave (which I thought was completed at the previous test of 50K). This also means once 5 waves are complete, the probability of a broader corrective wave to follow becomes greater.
At this point, the plan is simple: WAIT for retrace to 48K area support and look for buy signal on larger time frames. IF this opportunity unfolds I will point it out to my members along with the other parameters such as stop and take profit prices.
The broader Wave C (monthly) that I have been pointing out in recent articles is also a LOW probability scenario unless or until the 40K support is broken. Again the key to this game is knowing how to adjust to new information, NOT getting stuck on opinions. The market changes and we must change our expectations with it if you want to be aligned with the probabilities.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITCOIN $BTCUSD - Nov. 20th, 2023BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $35550 - $49240
DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $30320 - $35550
No sell/short zone shown.
The market has a clear bullish sentiment and I would not look to enter shorts here. I've drawn the levels and zones (from the daily and weekly frames) that I would look towards when entering. Price reaction to these areas would be significant in determining the trend. Recently BTC has shown strong bullish momentum in respect to the most recent level/zone break. The current test on the next level is the third one in less than two weeks. Although there is resistance to the level, there have been no large structural breakdowns and entering into the third test we see support on the 4H level combined with an ascending triangle.
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
Update: BTC near Golden Crosses & ResistanceBitcoin is very near golden crosses of its 50/200 MA (dotted lines) and EMA (solid). It is also just below resistance.
If it is going to get a re-test near wedge top, where it broke out (green wedge), or near the 50 MA or EMA, it'll happen soon.
It could just run to ~26 and ~30k, get those golden crosses, get above resistance and head towards double-top targets, but a re=test near top of wedge could lead to an inverted head/shoulders formation that would give us higher targets above resistance, near ~33-37k and provide a new buying opportunity that takes us closer to next halving and lead to a higher high, possibly even a new ATH.
Inverted HS might look something like this:
Related chart ideas linked below.
BITCOIN to 40k or 69k?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within a long-term Channel Up pattern since the November 21 2022 market bottom. The price broke today above the psychological level of $50000 and is about to touch that very top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up.
As the 1D RSI broke above its 4-month Lower Highs trend-line and is largely overbought near 80.00, this technically resembles the same break-out of June 23 2023. As a result, as long as the 1D candles close within the Channel Up, BTC could pull-back to a 'fair' value near $40000 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Time-wise it would be ideal to reach that level before April's Halving and start attracting long-term buying interest then.
If however a 1D or even better, a 1W candle closes above the Channel Up, we will turn again largely bullish on the medium-term break-out as we can see an price action resembling the short-term Channel Up that started on October 24 2023 that paved the way for the December 08 2023 High. That High was on a +79.77% rise from the September 11 2023 Low, the last technical Higher Low of the Channel Up. A new +79.77% run from the recent January 23 2024 Low would peak marginally above $69000, which in that case will be our Target.
Which scenario do you think is more likely to prevail now? 40k or 69k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: Elevated Risk For Longs.Bitcoin is now pushing into the 50K AREA resistance zone while presenting a potential momentum continuation pattern (inside bar). A break of the inside bar high can lead to a test of 50K and possibly higher. The zone between 50 and 51K (blue rectangle on chart) is a high probability bearish reversal zone which means unattractive place for new longs, especially for larger time frame investors.
Strategies that make the most sense in terms of risk right now are day and swing trades with low expectations on the long side. Stop placing so much weight on what you can SEE, think more about what you CAN'T SEE which is the potential RISK. The further price stretches into the reversal zone, the greater the risk of reversal.
The blue line illustration on the chart is the scenario that I anticipate over the coming week or two. Again it is important to understand that markets are highly random and that there is NO way to know the future. The market can present us numerous scenarios and we want to be prepared for a narrow range of scenarios that are more likely to appear. The key to acting on this is CONFIRMATION from the price action.
Right now, all we have is an inside bar developing that is often a momentum continuation pattern. If the high is taken out, that is a signal to go long, BUT if the low is taken out, that could be the beginning of a broader retrace back to the 44, 45K area.
Also I wanted to mention that B waves (which this still might be), can produce a higher high while confusing many into thinking the market is breaking out. WATCH carefully for the fake out in this situation. It often looks like a bearish pin bar (judge only on the close).
My goal here is NOT to scare people out of participating, it is to make you AWARE of the risk. It is usually at these points where people can no longer handle the fear of missing out and buy the top. While there is never a "bad" time to invest, you can control the risk you take by knowing how to effectively categorize price points. I will cover this topic more during my Monday stream.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITCOIN Cycle Phases like you've never seen them before!On today's post we are basically upgrading our previous analysis (see chart below) with the addition of actual circle shapes on Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles and pies on their phases:
As you can see this reveals a groundbreaking illustration of the historic Cycles. We don't want to get you in the technical details of the trend, you can find everything by clicking on our previous publication.
But as you can see, on top of the tradition measuring of the Cycle phases (Bear, Accumulation, Bull), we have place Wedges/ Pies that fit into the actual Circles. Those Circles (as well as the pies naturally) are all the same size/ symmetry, which just goes to show you how similar BTC's Cycles are despite the different news and fundamentals that take place during each Cycle.
We use a Double Circle pattern to demonstrate more vividly the Cycles. Most of BTC's price action tends to be within that Zone that is made, even the 2018 - 2021 Cycle, despite the notable divergencies during the Accumulation (Libra euphoria) and Bull (Musk, Tesla adoption) phases, it eventually fell back within the Channel.
The presentation also reveals Bitcoin's current position relative to the previous Cycles (black "We are HERE" arrow). That's near the end of the Accumulation Phase, only a few weeks before the Halving, above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and within the 0.618 - 0.5 Fibonacci Zone. The upside is enormous and since the price is above the Circles Channel as during February 2020, who is to say we won't see another outperformance, especially if positive fundamentals hit the market (ETF approvals already, potential Rate Cuts, more news of adoption every day etc).
But what do you think? Is this Cycle presentation accurate and if so are you expecting a massive rally as we approach the Halving? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: 40K In Play For Bounce.Bitcoin failed attempt to break 40K means the broader support area is still in play. While the broader resistance is 45K, the minor resistance is 42.5 which appears to be affecting price now. IF a bearish pin bar appears at this location, it increases the chances of a bearish retrace back into the 40.5K area. THIS is the scenario I am looking for in order to justify risk for a new swing trade long.
Upon a retest of 40K, if there is no confirmation, then I stand aside to see if there is a retest of 38.5 again. IF 38.5 breaks, then I stand aside because the broader trend at that point goes into question. As of now, the broader trend can still be argued as bullish. It is important to keep in mind that markets do not necessarily go from bullish to bearish, they can consolidate. As the market provides new information, arguments and expectations can be adjusted.
Assessing a market effectively requires evaluating smaller time frame information in light of larger time frame information. I am not trying to forecast the future (this is a typical retail mistake). I am gathering clues from recent price action in an attempt to narrow the range of possibilities that the market can present over the next week or two. From there it is up to the market to confirm or not which justifies if I can take risk or not. This is the passive mindset, which facilitates an open mind in contrast to jumping to conclusions or thinking in absolutes.
I also wanted to mention, do not lose sight of the monthly time frame. A break of 38.5 will add more weight to the monthly C Wave scenario that I have been describing for weeks. Realize that IF the market chooses this route, price will NOT move in a straight line. It will takes months to unfold and there will be many conflicting situations (bullish reversals) along the way. This is why it is essential to constantly gauge the levels in play and what to expect relative to the trend structure.
IF price manages to retrace back to 45K, I would not expect much more than that. This level is ideal to take profits. From there the market will have to continue to prove strength.
Traders and investors have many obstacles to deal with which they aren't even aware of. One such obstacle is the value of the information. Understand that if you consume the same information as everyone else, you have NO advantage which means your outcomes will most likely be random. Information is NOT just news reports, etc. Price itself offers much more value in the absence of inside information because it paints a picture of reality. You just have to learn how to interpret it.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITCOIN Every monthly pull-back is a BUY opportunity from now onOn this 1W analysis we see Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) amazing symmetry through its historic Cycles. A symmetry which upto this date, is holding and we will explain why right away.
Before we begin, note that the current study can be used in combination with our legendary Golden 51%-49% Ratio publications shown below:
** Three Cycle Phases **
Now as to the cyclical symmetry. The chart classifies each grand Cycle into three phases:
a) The Bear Phase (red), which starts at the top of the previous Cycle and ends on its bottom. The price breaks below the 1W MA50 during that phase.
b) The Accumulation Phase (blue), which continues where Bear left off and is when investors buy for the long-term following the market bottom. The price breaks above the 1W MA50 during that phase.
c) The Bull Phase (green), which starts after the Halving event (orange vertical line) and ends on the new Cycle top. The price never closes a 1W candle below the 1W MA50 during that phase.
** The Symmetry **
As you can realize just on first glance, the Phases along the Cycles are on an amazing symmetry. The Bear Phases has so far been 59 weeks (413 days), 52 weeks (364 days) and the most recent 58 weeks (406 days) respectively. The Accumulation Phases have been 77 weeks (539 days) and 73 weeks (511 days) respectively. The Bull Phases have been 75 weeks (525 days) and 79 weeks (553 days) respectively.
The current Accumulation Phase will be 71 weeks (497 days) by the time of the Halving, which is remarkably along the lines of the previous 2. As for the new Bull Phase after the Halving, we could assume a minimum duration of 75 weeks (525 days) as in 2016 - 2017.
** Fibonacci role on the Halving date **
The key at the moment as we approach the upcoming Halving in April, are the Fibonacci retracement levels. During the previous two Halvings, BTC had already reached the 0.786 Fib once and at the time of the Halving was around the 0.618 Fib, which is basically the current price levels within 39000-40000. The 1W MA50 is about to touch the 0.5 Fib level which is around 33000 and technically, based on this model, is as low as the correction can extend to.
Technically we should be expecting price levels around 40k as we enter April, which of course doesn't dismiss the possibility of another run to 50k earlier. In conclusion, assuming the 1W MA50 is the new long-term Support from now on, every monthly correction, should technically be a buy opportunity as we head into the Bull Phase.
But what do you think about this Cycle mapping? Do you expect history to continue to repeat itself? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN MACD bottom pattern shows when to Buy and when to Sell !Over the years we have discovered many historic patterns applicable to Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles. With a relative degree of volatility every time, since each Cycle has it's own distinct characteristics and fundamental events that shape it, those patterns can help traders/ investors construct strategies for buying and selling on a long-term scale.
This time we have come across a very unique pattern on the 1M time-frame, which can identify where to Buy and where to Sell, near the Tops and Bottoms respectively, on a Cyclical scale.
Starting from the November 2011 bottom onwards, each Cycle is measured at either 3.58 or 3.83 years to the point where the 1M MACD bottoms. The last MACD bottom and start of reversal was on February 2023, while BTC was trading around 23k on average. Still not as appealing as the November 2022 16000 but low enough to provide an excellent (and confirmed) long-term dip buy entry compared to the previous $69000 All Time High.
At the moment the price is on the 0.236 Fibonacci level of the current Cycle and as you can see on the chart, this is the level where BTC makes a 1-2 month pull-back. The Tops are priced either on the 0.5 or 0.618 Fibonacci levels. This means that long-term investors could take their profits either on January 2025 or July 2025, if the current Cycle lasts again 3.58 years. And as for the next bottom based on the model, it is expected on December 2026, where we can take a (relatively) confirmed buy position again for the long-term.
But what do you think about that MACD bottom model? Are you also expecting a new Cycle Top within January - July 2025? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Bullish Continuation to 50kCRYPTOCAP:BTC price has been consolidating at highs as we await the imminent ETF approval announcement. At this point a bullish pennant pattern has formed and the daily bollinger bands have tightened, signalling that we will soon see volatility that triggers a breakout.
In terms of targets, the fib extension of the chart pattern says 47.3k to 49k. I am keeping in mind however that Bitcoin has never exceeded the 61.8% retracement of the previous drawdown pre-halving. Although the ETF approval announcement could make things different this time. If we exceed 50k, buckle up lads.
Is 2024 Set to Be the Toughest Year for the Crypto Market ?Technical Analysis:
Right now, the market's showing signs that might point to a 'cup and handle' pattern in the price charts. For those who aren't familiar, a cup and handle pattern looks a bit like a "U" with a slight dip at the end. Not to get too bogged down in details, but interestingly, in early January 2024, Bitcoin's price hit a ceiling around the same high it did back in March 2022, which was about $48,000.
From what I can see, it looks like Bitcoin might be on a bit of a downward trajectory in the short term. I'm thinking we might see the price retract to around the $30K-$34K area in the next few weeks, which could be a point where more buyers jump in. However, this is something we need to watch closely because that range might just turn out to be a support level.
If the price falls through that $30K-$34K range I mentioned, then I'm expecting it could drop even further, maybe hitting a new low (we could be talking as low as zero or around $10K).
News:
Switching gears to the news, there's something intriguing about the BRICS nations considering backing their currency with gold. My first reaction is, "Wow," because it's pretty common to want a currency backed by something as solid as gold. But the big question is how this move will affect the relationship between their currency and cryptocurrencies. If this really takes off, it could be a very tough year for the crypto market.
Summary:
For now, I'm just keeping an eye on the market's pulse and price movements. I haven't jumped into the market yet, but I'm patiently waiting for the right moment and Brics news.
Bitcoin: 40K Break Trend Change?Bitcoin rejects the 50K resistance area and goes from 49K to 41,500 over a two day period. If you have been following my analysis on here you should NOT be surprised. I have been highlighting the extreme risks above 46K in my articles AND my streams since the beginning of the month. Is this an adequate pullback to buy into? I will address that now.
The first question that we must consider is: has anything changed in terms of trend? From a technical perspective, NOT YET. The 40K support is still intact, and until this level is clearly compromised, it is still within reason to anticipate the overall support to hold. One thing to keep in mind though, there is a large red candle coming off a major resistance level and this means momentum is bearish. IF this momentum continues, 40K can break at which point a change in trend would be in play.
For this reason, BEFORE considering any swing trades on the long side, I will WAIT for a complex reversal pattern (see illustration on chart). This can appear in the form of a classic double bottom or failed low in the 40K AREA. A couple of green inside bars is NOT enough in this situation because of the recent surge in momentum. Typically inside bars in this configuration are often momentum continuation patterns which at the moment favors the bears.
In previous reports and streams I have specifically mentioned the relevance of the monthly time frame and potential of a bearish C wave developing. IF 40K breaks, this further confirms that argument. A bearish C wave can potentially lead to a test of 15K (this can take months to play out). It is important to be cognizant of this scenario particularly for investors who plan to dollar cost average into the next pullback. Don't make the mistake to getting too big too soon.
There is no way to know if 15K will be tested, maybe the bottom of C turns out to be 30K, or maybe Wave C never unfolds at all, and 40K holds. The point is, don't get married to any opinions bullish OR bearish. Avoid getting swept up into the nonsense machine (the internet). You only need a few components of information to make reasonable decisions. Start with having a repetitive way to identify trend and changes of trend, and second the same for KEY support and resistance levels. These two components alone can improve decision making because they help you align with market intent.
This game is NOT about "thinking" and being right. It is about ADJUSTING as the market processes new information. Unless you are ahead of the information curve, you have to accept that the market is ALWAYS right. It can do whatever IT wants, WHENEVER it wants for ANY REASON. Charts help to isolate a probable range of scenarios which you can reference to better quantify risk. The more you over think it, the greater the chance that you lose.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITCOIN The path to All Time Highs is scripted.It has been 14 months (November 14 2022) since we published our first (and to this date most important) Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Cycle comparison between 2022/ 2023 and 2014/ 2015:
www.tradingview.com
As you can see the main driver behind this comparison was the FTX crash in November 2022 and the Bitfinex crash in August 2015, which both acted as catalysts for the bottom. Following the FTX crash/ bottom, the price action has so far followed quite closely the 2015/ 2016 recovery.
On today's analysis, also on the 1W time-frame, we focus on the Rising Wedge that funneled the price action from the Cycle bottom to the bullish recovery. The similarities between the two Cycles are remarkable:
1. Bounce on the Lower Highs and 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) break-out, which basically confirmed the transition into the Bull Cycle.
2. Immediate Channel Down after the 1W MA50 break-out on the Rising Wedge's first Higher High.
3. 1W MA50 supporting since the break-out.
Right now we are in the stage where the price has broken above the Rising Wedge. In June 2016 this caused a short-term correction back inside the Wedge towards the 1W MA50, which as mentioned held. If BTC continues to replicate that Cycle, does it mean that such a technical correction is due? The 1W MA50 is currently above 30000 and rising aggressively.
But what do you think? Are you expecting a 1 - 1.5 month pull-back from here and then a new All Time High after April's Halving? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN ETF APPROVED!! Aggressive rally to $120k possible?Exactly a year ago (January 18 2023) we posted our last Fibonacci MAs study and called for a calculated rally while the rice was still at 20k:
It is now time to expand on our original idea and update it using the Mayer Multiple Bands. Basically, as you can see on the chart below, the Mayer MA helped us on June 17 2022 identify the Bottom Phase on the 1W MA300:
On the current analysis the 1W MA300 is portrayed by the blue trend-line but our focus has shifted to the black trend-line (Mayer Multiple Mean), which just broke emphatically this week. As you can see, when BTC has broken above this level since November 2015 (green circles), it starts aggressive rallies (lowest of those 3 has been the April - June 2019 of +180%).
The dashed curve represents the Bull Cycle Rally phases and if the +180% mininum black trend-line rise is repeated, expect at least $120000 as the current Cycle High. It might be less aggressive than the previous ones (Theory of Diminishing Returns and Cycle lengthening) but it should hit at least the orange trend-line (2nd upper SD) as it has always done in the past.
But what do you think? Are we going to see such a strong rally now that the Mayer Multiple Mean has been broken? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC Bitcoin Strong Bullish Will Rise to 37000,46000 and 71000USDBTC Bulls to Retarget $31,500
BTC could be in for a choppy session as investors consider the chances of SEC approvals for the ETFs and US inflation in focus.
the crypto news wires provided much-needed support. News of Fidelity filing for a spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) was the key to the bullish session.
This morning, BTC was down 0.03% to $30,524. A bearish start to the day saw BTC fall from an early high of $30,534 to a low of $30,507.
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), the EMAs sent bullish signals. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA ($30,032). The 50-day EMA pulled further away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.
A hold above S1 ($30,158) and the 50-day EMA ($30,032) would support a move through R1 ($30,882) to give the bulls a run at R2 ($31,232). However, a fall through S1 ($30,158) and the 50-day EMA ($30,032) would bring S2 ($29,784) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.
Resistance & Support Levels
R1 – $ 30,882 S1 – $ 30,158
R2 – $ 31,232 S2 – $ 29,784
R3 – $ 31,956 S3 – $ 29,060
Strategy Bullish
3Lots
2 Lots will be excecuted at Profit Target Zones
1Lot will follow the Trend
It will be only!!! excecuted ,if Bullish Trend changes
The stops will be delivered as soon as possible to break even,better some pips above the Buyinh price
I have marked my profit targets
Psychology:
1:The price is always right
2The Market is alwas right
3 The Chart is always right
4 IGNORE THE NEWS; Plan your trades and trade your plan.
5Drawdowns are partof the game
6 Risk management and money mangement is King!
7 wHATEVER HAPPENS;sTICK TO YOUR PLAN!
8 In a bear market no price is weak enough
9 In a bull market no price is strong enough
10 Patience !Wait for confirmation: Control emotions and tensions.