Happy New Year with BITCOIN breaking 45k!First and foremost allow me to wish everyone here in the TradingView community a Happy New Year and a prosperous 2024!
What a better way to start the year than Bitcoin (BTCUSD) breaking above 45000 mark, a level it last visited on April 06 2022. Every Cycle can be seen trading within a Megaphone pattern with the parabolic rally illustrated by the dotted curves. Note that every time the price breaks above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), it holds it as Support (exception of course was the COVID crash). The 1W MA50 is now 30000, which means that technically any pull-back/ correction that takes place until the peak of this Cycle, shouldn't break below this level and practically dip buyers have a benchmark to work with.
But what do you think? Are we about to witness an even more aggressive part of this new rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin-btcusd-btc
BITCOIN The Ultimate Pitchfan Cycle AnalysisBitcoin (BTCUSD) has seen a significant mid-Cycle growth in the past 2 months, approaching the pivotal 50k level. Technically a break above the 48.5k Resistance, constitutes the beginning of the Parabolic Phase of the Bull Cycle.
There isn't a better way to illustrate this transition than the use of the Pitchfan tool. Rarely used on BTC analysis and even more so on the long-term Cyclical patterns, it displays as you can see a very accurate illustration of the Cycles and specifically the stage we are currently at.
Every Resistance break-out usually takes place around the Halving event, which is the fundamental that typically signals the start of the rally to a new All Time High (ATH). The market is only 4 months away from this event and based on this every pull-back to the 1D MA50 is a buy opportunity to Dollar Cost Average (DCA).
So what do you think? Do you expect a Bullish Break-out into the new Parabolic Rally soon? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Will it hit 48k before the New Year?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is currently testing the 1-month Higher Lows trend-line that has been supporting the price action since the November 22 Low. Even though the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has been acting as a Pivot, the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) has been intact and supporting since October 15 and is right below that Higher Lows trend-line.
Technically, the price action from December 08 until now is similar to that between November 09 - November 27. What followed after the (d) wave bottomed on the Higher Lows trend-line was a +21% rally.
If the final sequence is repeated as well, we can expect the 48300 March 2022 High to get tested.
But what do you think? Will that be the case and if so, do you expect 48k to get hit before January 01 2024? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: 42,850 Swing Trade Setup.Bitcoin consolidation within a Wave 4 which is poised for one more leg higher (Wave 5) IF the 40K support holds over the coming week. At this time, a break above 42,850 will signal a swing trade long in anticipation of a test of the 45K high. IF price breaks lower instead, I will be watching for a test and reversal confirmation around the 40K level support (See blue square on chart).
The next two weeks are likely to be filled with optimism, positive news, etc which is typical this time of year. Volume is also likely to get lighter which can make for lack of follow through OR slow grinds which are especially tricky (and costly) for counter trend strategies.
The outcome of Wednesday's FOMC meeting set the tone. The S&P, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, Ten Year Note have gone vertical pricing in a dovish future. PLEASE keep in mind, just because the market is pricing this in does NOT mean something unexpected can't come along in Q1 or Q2 of next year. It is easy to get caught in the hype and think "its strong, its safe" and usually this is when risk is the GREATEST (see S&P in December of 2021).
In my opinion the best way to control risk and avoid getting caught is by keeping expectations LOW on BOTH sides of the market. Don't fight the momentum, while at the same time, it is not wise to expect that higher highs will just relentlessly continue. Day trade strategies are best OR just stay out and WAIT for a broader retrace. It may take a month.
This is why I cannot emphasize enough the importance of sticking to a well defined system that identifies particular setups in your chosen market. My Trade Scanner is a testament to this because while it does not produce a 100% win rate (nothing does), it has identified over a dozen winning trades over the previous 2 weeks across 3 asset classes (see results page).
It really pays to understand what you are up against as a retail trader before you can appreciate the value of automation. To use a poker reference: imagine the advantage you would have over your opponents IF you could see their cards. THAT is the advantage that exchanges, market makers, dealers and other counter parties have over all of US. THINK about that the next time you are wondering why you can never seem to make consistent money in this game.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
Bitcoin - BTC pair signal🟢just occurred🚨🚨🚨Bitcoin
HUNT HISTORICAL BITCOIN VOLATILITY PLOT
The pair signal🟢just occurred 🚨🚨🚨
Not always but often seen‼️
Imagine these were your BTC entry points over the years😉
What will the smart money do❓
Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗
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Disclaimer:
Not financial advice
Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
Bitcoin: Overlooking The Wave Count?Bitcoin appears to be in a smaller magnitude Wave 4 (see chart) which implies one more push higher to complete the impulse structure. such a move can see price into the mid to high 46Ks over the next couple of weeks. While this is good news for those who have been or are looking to go long, there is one technical problem that is likely being overlooked by most.
I am using the general wave count idea to illustrate the smaller magnitude impulse structure at hand. I am not accounting for where Bitcoin is on the broader magnitude. If you go out to a monthly time frame (not illustrated here) the risk is much more obvious. The completion of the current impulse appears to be a Wave C of a large magnitude B (I will review this further in my stream tomorrow).
This is important because IF this structure turns out to be true, then the coming corrective wave is likely to be a broader C Wave. This can take price back to levels completely unexpected or foreseen at this time. An extreme instance can be a test of the structure low at 15K. Keep in mind, a wave of this magnitude can take MONTHS or even a year to play out.
While this is NOT meant to be a precise forecast, it does highlight important RISKS, particularly for investors. Current levels are NOT attractive because there is a greater chance these are cycle highs. It should be no surprise that the faketuber thumbnail titles are once again coming out with "it's just getting started" and "early investors will make millions".
Markets are mostly random and do not operate on logic. There is no way to know if this bearish scenario will play out or not it is a function of perception. The third leg of this rally was initiated by EFT news and halving anticipation. Realize that bearish perception of the same magnitude can also come of out no where.
For these reasons, I control risk by having LOW expectations of further potential at current levels. Risk is controlled by your category of strategy. Day trades and swing trades are the best way to navigate current levels for the coming month at least. The idea being not getting caught with longs at cycle highs and assuming the MOST risk while letting others out for a nice profit.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BTCUSD: Amazing similarity with 2020. Will the 1D MA50 hold?Bitcoin has so far remarkably followed the fractal that followed the March 2020 COVID crash. Of course that was a pattern on the second phase of that Bull Cycle, whilst now (chart on the left) was the first rebound of the Bull Cycle. Nevertheless, the similarities are striking. Especially on the RSI's part. The 1D technical outlook is bullish (RSI = 60.001, MACD = 1547.200, ADX 26.937) and as long as the 1D MA50 holds, there is reason not to expect a bullish extension. Fractal-wise we are in a situation similar to the November 26th 2020 pullback, which gave way to a short term consolidation.
Do you think the 1D MA50 and initiate a new bullish wave?
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BITCOIN FULL REVIEWthis would be a little long idea, I'm sincerely asking you to read until the end with all the comments to understand my idea completely.
I'm gonna analyze the bitcoin chart from weekly to hourly time frame and using some kind of different indicators to see as much reaction and knots as we can to find the proper behavior of price since the last dump.
generally, I have 2 kinds of view for this idea: 1- bullish and. 2- correctional. I believe there is no falling or another dumping view for this chart anymore ( at least until there is no global financial crisis ).
we start from weekly :
as I see from the start of the bullish movement in march 2020 we reach the ATH of almost $65k which was the 0.68 point of FIBO extension, then we had a retrace to 0 points of it.
As can be seen from the past chart. The price will not grow evenly, so we need retracements along the way.
And given the location and collisions of the candlesticks with the specified levels, the price may be currently in a place that needs a retracement.
From the beginning of the last uptrend on July 19, 2021, until now, we have started a perfect bullish movement, and now it is possible to retrace it by reaching the first target, which is the range of 0.38 Fibo and median fork.
considered the target :
Given that the static channel front range (indicate in purple) with a green line ( representing the 50% range of the fork) can indicate a good level for the target of the corrective movement.
BITCOIN Megaphone breached! How high can the price go?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke yesterday above the Bullish Megaphone pattern that kept it at bay since the October 24 High. The previous Bullish Megaphone of September - October technically served as a consolidation belt before the price broke upwards to deliver a +31.86% peak from the Megaphone's last Higher Low and +40.50% from its first Low.
The ROC shows a similar behavioral structure between the two patterns. If it continues this way, then a new +31.50% leg will make a perfect contact on 48220, which is the March 28 2022 High, essentially the Bear Cycle's first Lower High and a key Resistance level of the current Bull Cycle. Technically, as long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) holds (has been doing so since Sep 28), that is a realistic end target for this bullish wave.
But what do you think? Do you agree that this is a likely extension for this rally before the price pulls back or you expect a pull back now? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Hello April 2022! 40k cleared!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke above the psychological 40000 mark, trading now even above 41k. Those are levels that we haven't seen since the week of April 18 2022! And we don't know yet where this euphoric (on Fed, ETF anticipation) candle will stop.
Technically, the next Resistance level is the 48220 High that was the first Lower High made after the November 2021 All Time High, on the week of March 28 2022. With the current trend structure it is not unrealistic to hit this zone as the pattern remains a Channel Up since the November 2022 market bottom. The current bullish leg resembles that of March 2023 and the price action now is on a course to price the new Higher High near the 48220 Resistance.
Beyond that it is high speculation but if it continues to repeat the waves of the Channel Up and the sequence after the April 10 2023 High, we could see a Falling Wedge bottoming close to Halving 4 (expected in April 2024) and as you are all aware of, the supply shock that the Halving causes to BTC, should gradually set in motion the Parabolic Rally of the Bull Cycle.
In addition to the above, BTC is about to complete in the next 2-3 weeks the first ever Golden Cross on the 1W time-frame, which is when the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). It will be really interesting to see how the market will react for the first time to such a bullish technical pattern.
But what do you think? Do you think that Channel Up is too scripted to be true? If not, can Bitcoin test 48k next straight away or a pull-back to test the middle/ bottom of the Demand Zone would be more realistic? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: Break To 45K Or 35K?Bitcoin has broken the 38K minor resistance and has tested the 40K whole number. The entire range between 38 and 40K is a resistance zone. Based on my thought framework, I place more emphasis on the probability of a short term bearish outcome from this level. This means risk for new longs is even HIGHER than it was at the 38K minor resistance. Based on this idea, I anticipate a retrace back to the 37 to 38K area (now a minor support) over the coming week (see chart illustration).
These situations are particularly hard for shorts. In a recent weekly update video I made, I pointed out that the price lingering around 38K could be interpreted as a sign of strength. I come to such a conclusion because price usually REJECTS resistance levels quickly, which it tried to do previously. This lures more shorts, particularly on smaller time frames, traders who do not have the perspective or experience to recognize the hidden strength.
This is precisely why in my previous article, I described a short day trade example, specifically mentioned to NOT expect much more than a move of 200 or so points. Counter trend setups are usually plentiful in these situations, but their potential is LOW.
While at the same time, price continues to flirt with a location that is not attractive for longs on the swing trade time frame. When risks are high on both sides of the market (bullish trend, but lingering at resistance) I have found it is most effective to either keep expectations very small on both sides (day trades only) OR just stay out completely until a higher probability scenario develops (test of support in bullish trend).
One more observation I want to point out is the weekly wave count (not illustrated here). If you go back to December of 2022, and begin the count there, the current wave appears to be a 5 of 3. If that's true, it points to the increased possibility of a Wave 4 corrective structure back to the 35K area support over the coming months. If a 5th wave appears after that, it implies a a test of the 45K area (this can take months). This is NOT to be meant as a forecast, but instead a point of reference to gauge risk.
Being in holiday mode, all of the markets are at risky levels. Take a look at S&P, bonds are also at a resistance level, etc. Don't get sucked into the hype that comes with this. Pay attention to LEVELS relative to their structure and constantly gauge and adjust RISK otherwise you will be fleeced. This game is NOT for your benefit that is why in my opinion the BEST DEFENSE wins.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
Bitcoin 4 Year Fractal update 2022 I've created this because I've had literally tens of people messaging me asking for an updated chart - There isnt a huge amount to update from the last one- we topped at the right time, wrong price - I've retraced 80-85% and then onward to a price target of 330k.
Trying to predict the price of a relatively new, risk asset in the middle of a pandemic and world war 3 is pretty poinless but this might be a bit of fun to track and its max pain for a lot of people, buying at 69k, seeing it drop into the teens then staying in the 20s for a year will flush a lot of people out...
But like I say, I dont think price can be held that low for long, there simply isnt enough corn and theres a lot of hodlers now.
Bitcoin Buy🟢and Sell🔴signals by Stochastic Momentum IndexLook at this great Bitcoin Buy🟢and Sell🔴signals by the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) with modified settings
Despite one false signal🟠quite great swing Trade gains dear BTC and Crypto Nation😎
Follow for the next cross❌update👀
Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗
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Disclaimer:
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Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
BITCOIN on the verge of a global money supply rally.On today's study we plot Bitcoin (BTCUSD) against two unique formulae that encompass the basic essence of the global money supply. The formula in blue has a differentiation towards Chinese bond yields while the orange on the Chinese Yuan. Both are regressed against the U.S. Dollar and the batch of the U.S. Balance Sheet, Chinese Central Bank Balance Sheet and the ECB's Assets.
BTC bottoms exactly when the orange trend-line bottoms and it starts the parabolic rally of its Bull Cycle when the blue trend-line bottoms on a Lower Low. Right now blue has started to rise after just bottoming on a Lower Low.
This is contrary to common belief and traditional Halving theory, but according to the above monetary metrics BTC may just be starting a new parabolic rally much earlier than anticipated.
Do you agree or it's too soon and you'll wait for the Halving? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD: Right where it's supposed to be.Bitcoin is on the very healthy bullish technicals on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 60.823, MACD = 1089.300, ADX = 23.103) extending a controlled uptrend. The 1W timeframe remains overbought though (RSI = 74.426) as there has been no hard correction since mid August. Perhaps the relief in late weeks is an attempt of 1D to neutralize the overbought state on 1W without a strong correction.
Regardless of this, Bitcoin is right where it's supposed to be when compared to the previous Cycles. On this chart you see the harmonic structure of every bottom that leads to cyclinder pattern that ultimate paves the wave for the end of Cycle rally.
There has always been one extreme event' crash on every Cycle, after which the market bottomed and never looked back. It was COVID and Bitfinex before, this time we had FTX and now the market shouldn't break the 1W MA50 again before the next Bear Cycle starts. All that's left now to do is see how close the price will be to the 1W MA50 in the next Halving (April 2024) as from that point onwards the parabolic rally can start any moment.
See how our prior idea has worked:
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BITCOIN Monthly RSI tells you where the Cycle Top will be!Following our recent Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Thanksgiving study on the trend-line angles, we decided to expand it a bit further and apply a similar reasoning on the RSI, this time on the 1M (monthly) time-frame.
The result is more than informative as, with the additional use of the Fibonacci Channel levels for better display, we see that from bottom to top, every Cycle displays an RSI trend-line on a 40° angle (approximately). Applying the same measurement on the current Cycle, we get a rough date for the next Top at around March 2025. This doesn't of course give a dollar figure of BTC's price at that time but rather tells you to (at least) start considering taking (some) profits on your holdings.
Do you agree with that model? Are going to sell around that date? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: Playing 35K to 38K Range.Bitcoin range is confirmed between 35K and 38K (see blue rectangles on chart). As I went over in my previous article and stream, assign probabilities to these levels UNTIL one of them breaks. Since the broader trend (price structure) is still BULLISH, the resistance area (38K to 40K) is favored to break while the 35K support is more likely to hold. Using these expectations is like assigning loose probabilities to the levels which can adequately prepare you for potential opportunities while mitigating risk.
The purpose of this article is to provide insight and perspective into the scenario that I believe is most probable for the coming week or two. It is based on my evaluation process which is focused purely on price action principles. I am not always right, nor do I expect to be because first and foremost I accept markets are mostly random (not ALWAYS random).
Capitalizing on the current range is easier said than done mostly because of lack of perspective, poorly defined system, emotional baggage, etc. Just as a side note, I asked my followers in my previous stream how they would trade around this particular scenario. They all answered it correctly (they've been following me for a while).
Here is what I suggest: If you are AGGRESSIVE: day trade shorts off the resistance. Right now 37,200 is the short entry on the daily time frame. This can be used on smaller time frames as a point of reference for day trades. "Why?" you ask? Day trades keep your risk smaller because your stop and take profit should be proportionally smaller (lower expectations). For example, if you sell 37,200 you should be looking for a move to 37K or maybe 36,950 max. If you expect more, you are asking for trouble. This is a broader BULLISH trend remember?
If you are conservative: WAIT for a test of 35K and then look for a bullish reversal confirmation on the daily time frame. Since this would be a trade on the side of the trend, it would be reasonable to have a higher profit expectation. A swing trade would be more appropriate here with a profit expectation of about 1500 to 2K points. Again, WAITING for confirmation is KEY. If 35K breaks, then you need to reevaluate and adjust to the new information.
Keep in mind, the scenarios I am describing here are one of countless possibilities. Price may not touch the 35K area. Price may reverse off of 37K and break out. Or maybe the 35K support breaks and the structure changes. The idea is NOT to get married to a scenario but instead be prepared IF one appears otherwise you adjust expectations.
The human element of markets is what contributes to its repetitive tendencies. These tendencies are frequent but NOT constant. As a trader it is in your best interest to WAIT until probabilities are stacked in your favor, otherwise you are simply gambling. It's like playing lousy poker hands over and over and making the other players at your table rich.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
The power of the black swan fractal.MIL:BTC will see a pre-halving ATH if it keeps copying previous cycle's post-black swan fractal.
After the FTX crash, we copied each phase that occurred after the COVID crash. If this continues, we'll see a new ATH early 2024. The ETF catalyst could make it happen.
BITCOIN TO FALL TO $18000 THEN RISE TO $100,000I am still temporarily still bearish on Bitcoin . $35-42k zone.
Bitcoin will fall to $18k then rise to $100k.
Pain before Joy
Harmonic Pattern : Bearish Crab
BTC will play in the resistance zone $37-42k.
Sell off to $20k (etf news will cause this sell off)
Massive bullrun from $18-20k to $100k in 2025
Bitcoin: 35K Test For New Long?Bitcoin has rejected the 40K area resistance swiftly over the previous week but that bearish momentum has also failed to follow through. What is going on here? This can be a bullish consolidation as long as the minor support at 35K stays intact. The higher probability opportunity in this case would be a double bottom or failed low off of the 35K support (see illustration on chart).
What IF 35K breaks? This would increase the possibility for a test of the 32 to 30K major support zone. A location that would still justify risks on the long side since the broader bullish structure would still be in play at that point.
Keep in mind this analysis is best suited for day trades and swing trades only. For example, waiting for long confirmations on a smaller time frame at these specified supports offers a better chance of a positive outcome as long as your EXPECTATIONS are in line with your time frame. If you don't understand this, do NOT risk real money.
Those who immerse themselves in news, logic, gimmicks to explain market movements or worse, forecast them are the MOST likely to be fleeced. The best we can do is form short term expectations based on recent price behavior. As price structures and levels change, our expectations should also change. If our goal is to generate a profit, then it is in our best interest to align with what the MARKET implies, NOTHING ELSE.
To be clear, the purpose of outlining this scenario is to PREPARE for a potential opportunity on the swing trade time frame that may develop over the coming week. Reacting to the price action at current levels is more likely to produce a random outcome. Random is not how you build accounts.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.