Bitcoin: Just Getting Started Again?Bitcoin has retraced to the 90K support (anticipated in my previous article) and is now attempting to retest the 100K high for the second time. Markets are mostly RANDOM, which means there are countless scenarios than can unfold from here. In this article I will focus on just TWO possibilities that I am anticipating for the coming week. The market chooses the outcome and it is our job to use available information to identify the market's intent. For me, that means using price action confirmation to improve probability and quantify my risk for whatever type of trade I am interested in pursuing. The amount of risk you are willing to accept is your responsibility from here.
The first scenario is the Captain Obvious one. Price breaks the high of the yesterday's inside bar and tests the 100K level over the coming week. While this may seem great, IF there is no major catalyst behind this, the chances of a FAILED HIGH are significant. The previous retrace serves as a sign that momentum is slowing in general. IF a failed high (double top) appears and confirms, the next retrace can be substantial to the tune of mid 80Ks. This is not a forecast, it is a potential RISK you must accept from current levels. The other thing to consider is even if 100K is cleared, what potential does it have relative to this risk? With that in mind, if I were to do anything with this scenario it would only be on small time frames, because that is the best way to avoid the large magnitude risk while participating in whatever is left of this move.
The second scenario is the retrace to the high 80's low 90K area for a failed low. This is more in line with the potential consolidation that appears to be developing (sub Wave 4 of 5?). IF Bitcoin offers this opportunity, along with the confirmation, it has a greater potential than the first scenario (inside bar). The arrows on the chart along with the lines illustrate the failed low scenario. This can be pursued on day trade as well as swing trade time frames. The confirmation at the second low is the key to entering this while keeping risk within reason.
A few things to keep in mind about this environment: the catalyst behind this momentum is the U.S. election. Market cap is at all time highs for this sector. Most of the large cap alt coins have reached major resistance levels on weekly and monthly time frames, but nowhere near all time highs. The "experts" are once again all coming out claiming "this is just the beginning". A market testing major resistance levels AFTER sharp break outs is usually NOT "the beginning". In my opinion times like this are ideal for reducing risk or taking profits. I will always suggest this at cycle highs (just like in 2021).
"Great" investing opportunities require long periods of WAITING and watching a market go lower and be completely off the mainstream radar. In this space, cycle lows can take a YEAR or TWO to play out. Alt coins are NOT long term assets, they are just a gamble. When asset bubble money flows, it often makes its way to complete nonsense which can be NFTs. Keep an eye in that area for the risk appetite overflow.
This is NOT a game of getting "rich" as every single video on Youtube is claiming. It is a game of how much RISK you are willing to take. If you have no problem with a healthy retrace giving back 20%+, then by all means do what you have to do. IF you can't handle losing the money, then you are in the wrong game. There are infinitely more people in position to get rich from this entire space BEFORE you. Markets CYCLE from low to high, etc. Just KNOW the RISK associated with the part of the cycle we are in. Hint: When 5 waves can be counted, it usually means there is a greater chance of a coming corrective move. Just ask all the geniuses who bought the highs back in 21.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
