The cyclical nature of Bitcoin by RB
Hello, dear friends!😊 I present to Your attention a weekly chart of Bitcoin, which includes price action since 2016, helping us to see a more complete picture and forecast further price behavior.👍
Today, let's focus our attention on the cyclical nature of Bitcoin .
The cyclical nature of Bitcoin is a concept based on observing repetitive patterns and phases in its price dynamics.
On the chart, You can see a huge ascending broadening wedge, which I marked in white 🤍. The price has been within it since 2016. 😳 At the moment, it can be assumed that the price is aiming for the upper boundary of this wedge. 🚀
Inside this wedge, I noticed a very interesting regularity, which I'm eager to share with You.❤️
For the THIRD time, every three years, after the distribution phase (marked in orange), the price follows a significant rise of 550 percent, followed by the formation of a descending wedge, which ends with the same distribution phase and subsequent rise.
If we assume that this cyclicality is true and will repeat more, then by the end of this year or the beginning of the next, Bitcoin could reach $160,000.😱
🧐What do You think about this? Is this scenario realistic? What are You waiting for and what are You counting on?
Share Your thoughts with me in the comments!🙏
Thanks for Your attention🫶
Always sincerely Yours, Kateryna💙💛
Bitcoin-btcusd
B I T C O I N So, I believe it's a bit premature to get excited over these most recent bull rallies.
Why? It's due to multiple reasons, which I'll share with you all.
-Price is reaching the A.T.H.
-MH will be hit for 1st time
-Price haven't retraced after breaking multiple key levels
-Monthly divergence 🐻
-Weekly high's 2nd hit
Seeing that price swept the weekly M.R.L. while also running into the EQ, I can see how most will look at this as a sweep for bull continuation, which it is! However, I am viewing it as a set-up for what's truly about to take place (IMO), which is a sweep of equal highs in order to begin the retracement phase to the downside.
The range I'll keep an eye on to see when price action start to flip bull/bear is $76K - $80K, and I wouldn't be surprised if the process starts sometime this upcoming week from the H1/H4 perspective.
A.O.I. $31,900 - $45,600
S.S. $35,200
I can very well be wrong on my analysis, and if I am, I'll look for the new weekly low ($55,600 - $55,900) to hold for further bull continuation. We all shall see..
BTC still looks good to head higher,still upside bias
Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Last week mentioned about its bullishness...and it went up higher..this week at the current 67-68k might face some headwinds. But Clearing this should see more up side to last high at 72-ish!
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
-- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! --
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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BTC → towards $73kThe chart provided shows a 4-hour Bitcoin (BTC) price analysis with USDT as the quoted currency for Binance. Let's break down the technical analysis:
Trend and Pattern Analysis
1. Descending Wedge Breakout:
- The price was previously in a descending wedge pattern, marked by converging trendlines.
- The breakout from this wedge occurred around July 11th, indicated by a sharp upward movement. This breakout is typically bullish, suggesting a reversal of the downtrend.
2. Resistance and Support Levels:
- Current Resistance: Around 66,446.00 USDT, which the price is testing currently.
- Support Zones: Significant support can be seen around the 62,500.00 USDT level.
- Future Resistance Targets:
- 69,577.08 USDT: The price is expected to face resistance here after the current level.
- 73,184.17 USDT: This is the next significant resistance level following 69,577.08 USDT.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) Analysis
- The RSI is currently around 64.08, slightly below the overbought threshold of 70.
- Divergence Noted: A bearish divergence is marked on the chart, where the price made a higher high, but the RSI made a lower high. This could suggest weakening momentum and a potential for a short-term pullback.
Price Projections
- The projected price path indicates a potential minor pullback from the current resistance level.
- Following this pullback, a rise towards the 69,577.08 USDT level is expected.
- If the price manages to break this resistance, the next target is the 73,184.17 USDT level.
Summary
- Bullish Outlook: The breakout from the descending wedge and the overall uptrend suggest a bullish sentiment.
- Short-term Caution: The bearish divergence on the RSI indicates the potential for a short-term pullback before continuing higher.
- Key Levels to Watch:
- Immediate support at 66,446.00 USDT.
- Resistance at 69,577.08 USDT and 73,184.17 USDT.
Trading Strategy
- Long Position: Considering entering on a pullback to a support level with targets at 69,577.08 USDT and 73,184.17 USDT.
- Risk Management: Place stop-loss orders below key support levels, particularly below 62,500.00 USDT, to manage risk in case of a false breakout or deeper correction.
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Bitcoin - Next Resistance is Previous ATHAfter price has consolidated around the 200 EMA range price has bounced back from the 200 EMA.
Also price has broken local resistance around 65K which was crucial to for the bullish trend to continue. Currently price is around 67K and heading towards the resistance which is around the previous ATH 73K (overall resistance zone is around 70-73K range)
I'm expecting price to easily breach the 75K barriers and we have decent trade opportunity here.
We can enter a long trade at the current price with local support of 65K as the SL
Entry Price: 67K
Stoploss: 64K
Target 1: 68K
Target 2: 69K
Target 3: 70K
Target 4: 72K
Don't forget to keep stoploss.
Cheers!
GreenCrypto
One more short before...
Hello, friends! 💙💛 In recent days, Bitcoin has shown significant growth, attracting the attention of many investors and traders. But are You ready for a possible price drop before the next surge? Let's dive deeper.
On the hourly chart, Bitcoin's price has risen to new heights, but it is now trading close to a key support level. It's anticipated that before any further upward movement, the price might dip to the $60,500 level. This level is a crucial support that could become the launchpad for a new strong upward move.
What Should You Consider?
Support and Resistance Levels: The $60,500 level acts as significant support. If the price reaches and holds this level, it could signal the preparation for a new powerful upward movement.
Historical Data: Historical data shows that such corrections are common before strong bullish moves. This might be an opportunity for those looking for optimal entry points.
Action Plan:
🔶 Monitor the $60,500 Level: If the price drops to this level, it could be a good opportunity to enter the market.
🔶 Analyze the Market: Use various analytical tools to confirm your expectations.
🔶 Be Ready for Volatility: The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, so be prepared for unexpected changes.
Let’s watch the developments together! Your thoughts and comments are always welcome.🫶
Thanks for Your attention and support!
Always Yours, Kateryna🩷
BITCOIN Will Keep Growing! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
BITCOIN is going up now
And the coin broke the key
Horizontal level of 63,500$
Then made a retest and
Shot upwards again which
Reinforces out local bullish
Bias and makes us expect
A further move up
Buy!
Like, comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
BITCOIN LONG TO $77,000 (4H UPDATE):If you go back & check the original analysis, you'll see we had 2 options on how Bitcoin will turn bullish & so far our first option is playing out. We've seen a break of structure to the upside, as price has taken out the last high of $63,700 indicating a bullish structure is now in play. Patiently waiting for a retest of our new supply zone at $61,600 - $59,300 before entering a buy position🤙🏽
CONFLUENCES:
⭕️Wave 4 (3 Sub-Waves A,B,C) Complete.
⭕️Wave 5 Still Pending.
⭕️Liquidity (Double Top Trap) Sitting On The Upside.
Bitcoin: Watch Retrace 55K Area.Bitcoin has retraced back to the 60K resistance (as anticipated by previous scenario). As a previous major support level it is likely to act as a new resistance within this broader range bound structure. While there is no confirmation or reason to sell at this time, the 60K to 62K area still serves as a potential bearish reversal point at least for the shorter time horizon (coming week). Such a location can offer aggressive short opportunities for traders who employ lower time frame strategies. The key in these situations is CONFIRMATION along with LOW expectations.
As important reminder, markets are MOSTLY RANDOM. Price adjusts as new information is processed by the MARKET, NOT what you "think" is going to unfold. My goal is to isolate a small range of scenarios that are more likely to unfold over the next week or two. These scenarios are based upon the broader trend and historical inflection points. These data points CANNOT forecast the future with any accuracy but they can help to assign probabilities. When you are dealing with probabilities, that means there is a chance you can be WRONG. Since the chance of being wrong is about 50%, RISK must be carefully assessed in order to determine if a trade is worth taking. The professional looks to minimize and control risk while the novice focuses only on potential profit (and dreaming about Ferraris).
In the case of Bitcoin in the 60K area, based on previous activity, there is a greater chance of a minor retrace. This situation is attractive for smaller time frame shorts which require specific confirmation (Trade Scanner Pro). It is important NOT to get carried away with where such a short can go in the future. If you notice, it is always after an extreme move, (like the test of 53K) all of the "experts" start calling for 45K, and not a reversal to 60K resistance. My Trade Scanner Pro signaled a long on the hourly off the 53K support that was worth 3K points for 1.6K point risk.
It is also important to note that the general area between 52.5 and 56.5 is a proportional reversal zone (compared to the previous 56K low). This is not something I can explain here in detail but the key take away is: this area should be considered a high probability zone for BULLISH reversals. Which brings me to this point: Any retest of this area followed by a bullish confirmation not only offers a high probability swing trade long, but one with great potential. What makes this most attractive is the relatively low amount risk associated with this scenario (see arrow). Think about it: which location carries greater risk to longs, 70K (near range high) or 53K (near range low within broader bullish structure)?
The most common novice mistake I see is "reacting" to what you see. This is a game where the reality of what is actually moving price is hidden from us. Reacting means you are rooting decisions and taking risk on information that is typically irrelevant to the real catalyst. We are often fooled into believing the "real" catalyst is the news at hand, etc. Which is usually only part of a much more complex puzzle. Instead of trying to solve the puzzle, I look for the least amount but more effective information points to assess probabilities and risk, without paying ANY attention to outside factors such as news, expert opinions, complex charts, etc. Less is more in a game where 99% of the info you consume is not relevant.
So for the coming week, I anticipate a minor retrace, possible double bottom (see illustration). Good for aggressive shorts for traders on small time frames. At the same time, I do respect the possibility that price may continue through 60K and potentially reach the 62K to 63K area which can be good for momentum continuation patterns. Which scenario you choose and what expectations to associate will all depend on your style, personal risk parameters and time frame.
Like I demonstrated in a recent meeting, first you choose the type of trade you are looking for, day trade or swing trade. That decision BEFORE even looking at a chart will shape how you assess risk, potential and context for the entirety of your personal decision making process. This is NOT about forecasting the future, its about assigning probabilities and then LETTING THE MARKET confirm or NOT. If you "think" you lose because the market is ALWAYS right.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITCOIN A 'game' of angles...This isn't the first time we post this chart on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and the relevance that its Cyclical Angles have but it is an added step with its RSI and phases.
We are on the 1W time-frame where as you can see every Cycle has been so far approximately 10 degrees (°) less than the previous one from top to bottom. The 1st Cycle (2012 - 2013) was 54°, the 2nd (2015 - 2017) was 42° and the 3rd (2019 - 2021) was 30°. Based on this progressive sequence, we can expect the current one to top at around 20° from the bottom.
Even though the price is on a declining angle rate, the 1W RSI is remarkably stable. As you can see, every Bull Cycle is around 25°, so there is no reason to expect the current one to diverge from this. This way when the RSI tops, we will now when to sell and sit back with the profits until the next Bear Cycle bottom.
On top of all the above, we see that according to the Bull Cycle phases classification, Bitcoin is still within its Accumulation Phase (blue Rectangle), so we haven't yet seen its most aggressive part, the Take-off Phase (orange).
But what do you think? Are we about to see that parabolic rally of the Take-off Phase and if so, is this 'Angle' analysis accurate at predicting when to take profit? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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$BTC may do something like this#bitcoin #btc is still moving in the ascending channel after recent dump. Ascending channels more often confirms the down trend continuation but rarely results trend reversal. I may expect movement like this while P.A. is still bearish.
Invalidation: If #btcusd breaks out channel permanently.
Not financial advice. DYOR.
Bitcoin- Major false break and back to 70k after?Last week, Bitcoin broke below the important 60k support level, which coincides with the neckline of a double top.
However, after an initial drop to the 53k zone, the price quickly recovered, forming a daily pin bar and leaving a double bottom on short-term time frames.
Now, Bitcoin is back in the broken support level zone.
Considering the quick recovery, in my opinion, this will prove to be a false break, not a test and continuation downwards.
I am looking to buy dips against the recent low with a target around 70k.
BTC discount today sponsored by German GovernmentHi guys.
This is an update for a longer term LONG position I am building from these levels.
We had a German Government dumping 12k BTC on the market and re-visited 55k area .
This selloff was absorbed by market .
German Government has 23.7k BTC left in their wallet down from 50k .
Bitcoin ALL-TIME-HIGH is STILL COMING: Here's WhyA hint... the RSI.
The RSI is one of those reliable old-timers, especially useful in higher timeframes to determine longer period price action, such as near term and long term.
Together with Elliot Wave Theory, I'm going to present to you an argument for why Bitcoin is STILL BULLISH and what my strategy/expectation is for the coming weeks. I'll also share key metrics to watch and do regular updates should the conditions mentioned in the video be met.
Although I am short term bearish, I remain longer term bullish, making it really impossible to label this post as solely "short" or "long".
Cheers to the Top10%'ers 🥂
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BINANCE:BTCUSDT
BTC - what if it's lower than $56 522?On May 21, the INDEX:BTCUSD chart formed a model on the weekly timeframe that describes the key logic behind the price movement.
The model was confirmed by touching the trend line:
After an unsuccessful attempt to retest the trendline between June 5 and June 8, the price retreated towards the 4 point ($56 522).
Right now the price is trying to consolidate above this level, but if INDEX:BTCUSD still fails to trade higher during the week and goes back under $56 522, we could see price levels like $43 349 and $33 229 in the long term.
Elementary Bitcoin in its entirety for beginnersUnlike all kinds of cryptocurrencies, the issue of Bitcoin is limited by the condition of a regular reduction in the size of the mining reward. Naturally, the American dollar will always be issued without any special restrictions. This allows you to make a basic calculation: “infinity” divided by “21 million” = “infinity”. That is, theoretically, in the infinite future, Bitcoin can cost as much as you like; based on general data, you can already calculate the nearest maximum target of $120k at the end of 2025. Of course people won't spend all their dollars on Bitcoin because they have other needs to survive. People will buy and sell Bitcoin to achieve their budget goals. Therefore, the price will not rise every day.
Looking at the figure, you can see three symbolic exponents (blue at the bottom, red at the top and orange in the middle) the struggle between buyers and sellers unfolds. But this is not a fact that the price will reach them, since the real exponential median is extended into eternity, or at least for the next hundred years until all Bitcoin is mined. The most likely upward trend will fluctuate around a straight white line. I think the price will charge below this line and shoot exponentially much higher again and again as mankind's speculative sentiment never runs out.
Therefore, in the near future, since the price has not reached its nearest maximum immediately, a break is needed to recharge. Anything can happen at once, but most likely it will drop below the previously mentioned orange exponential and below the white straight line to collect at least part of the liquidity between $28k-33k and reverse fast back to its nearest target at $120k. I believe this downward and upward movement will occur before the end of 2025. However, from my own experience, I can note that my scenarios are implemented much faster because we are not given time, we create it ourselves. Therefore, just stay in touch and watch the unfold of events vertically if you are not in a hurry. =]
I still provide brief comments as the story progresses from that “Watchlist, details and news” section in the upper right corner of the screen on the stationary monitor.
Best wishes.
Bitcoin Price Recovery StallsMany Bitcoin traders believe that this was an isolated liquidation dip caused by "reasons" such as MtGox and Germany. This price movement is part of a broader picture (below) and while many hoped to see 60k recaptured this weekend it does not seem that will be the case. Futures markets will open in a few hours and last for the last two weeks the Sunday-Monday action has been that of holding resistance and continuing lower.
In the bigger picture Bitcoin is still well within its new bearish trend. Price found support last week at a key level; the 50% Retracement of the ETF launch rally. However, as seen above, it failed to recapture the liquidation low of June 24th which was the dip that plunged Bitcoin into the confirmed bearish trend.
Be sure to catch up on the level by level analysis over the last few weeks and where I analyze Support will finally be in my posts linked below.
BITCOIN - Heading Below 20K...It's A Good Thing!We know this is an unpopular opinion BUT technically, Bitcoin is ripe for a move to the downside.
On the monthly chart, we can see that we've completed a major wave 1 impulse and now we're in a wave 2 correction. We're looking for one more move down to complete this wave 2.
See monthly chart below:
It looks as if we're making a 535 correction and therefore, we believe we'll be moving towards the 20k region to complete wave C.
Please note that we are still bullish on Bitcoin, as well as Crypto. We're looking for any buying opportunities to hold for the long term!
We'll be loading up for the long term anywhere below 20k region.
What do you guys think?
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
See our previous setups below:
BITCOIN - Watch Top For MAJOR Shorts! BIG Risk:Reward Setup!Following on from our last analysis where we identified that Bitcoin was in a 335 flat correction, we finally have the top in place.
We are now expecting 5 waves down to complete wave C of the major flat correction.
We've already completed wave 1 and now in wave 2. We're expecting price to move back up near the highs where we'll be looking for price to stay below ATH and make a major move down.
The risk to reward of this trade is unparalleled and an entry at the top will allow us to hold with very little drawdown, if any.
Trade Idea:
- Watch for price to move back towards the highs
- Expecting price to stay below ATH = stops above ATH
- Enter shorts when we see reversal signs such as trendline breaks, BOS etc
- Targets: 40k, 30k, 20k, 15kk
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
BTC PA Model- i usually don't speak much when i don't see anything.
- Right now we can just speculate on some scenarios.
- so you can just imagine those scenarios with the figure i drew ( ending Diamond )
- you can notice some H&S and a big inversed H&S in the middle of graph.
- BTC volatily is still low ( around 15ish)
- i didn't find any convincing divergences yet.
- The PA range have been respected almost perfectly.
- it seems like a consolidation between 60 to 70k+.
- BTC tried to break 70k++, 5 Times exactly.
- Soon or later a breakout will happen ( next could be 85k$ ish )
- Halving is still young and the decoupling not yet started.
- if we dip under 60k.
- 50k is next small support.
- 40k is a strong support.
- very simple.
- There's a time for trading and a time for waiting.
Happy Tr4Ding!