BITCOIN BULLISH TO $114,000 - $116,000In Q1 2025 I said I expect a retracement back towards $86,000 - $78,000 as Wave IV retracement.
BTC has now hit our Wave IV target. So according to my report & analysis, our next target is Wave V. Priced around the $114,000 region.
Market Structure Invalidation: $74,450❌
Bitcoin-btcusd
BITCOIN just triggered the ultimate post-Halving BUY SIGNAL!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit last week the top of the green Gaussian Channel (GC), a key indicator as last time it did (September 02 2024), kickstarted the massive 2024 rally towards the end of the year.
In fact, it can be argued that when BTC makes contact with the GC during a Bull Cycle, it is the ultimate pull-back Buy Signal after Halving events. More specifically, during the previous Cycle and after the May 2020 Halving, the price touched the GC three times (August 31 2020, July 19 2021 and September 20 2021), all of which were the most optimal pull-back Buy Entries as Bitcoin rebounded instantly.
So far during this Cycle and after the April 2024 Halving, this is the 2nd time the GC is tested. As mentioned the first also initiated an instant rebound. As a result, the current GC test is technically considered a very strong buy opportunity for the remainder of the Cycle, which based on the Time Cycles of the last 2 Cycle Tops, it should peak around October 06 2025.
So what do you think? If buying now towards a potential October 2025 Top, the perfect opportunity? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Sell everything in October!Yep, kind of a clickbait title but it doesn't fail to serve justice to this very important Bitcoin (BTCUSD) chart.
Today's analysis displays in the most illustrative way the extremely tight symmetry between BTC's Cycles and how this can help us time our Sell at the Top of the Cycle and equally have the patience to buy as close to the next Bottom as possible.
As you see, in the past +10 years since the 2014 Bear Cycle, every Cycle has almost identical time ranges/ durations. All three Bear Cycles since then, lasted for approximately 1 year, and both Bull Cycles for almost 3 years (152 weeks, 1064 days to be exact). More specifically, the last two Bear Cycles were exactly 1 year long, the 2018 one started on the week of December 11 2017 and ended on December 10 2018 and the next Bear Cycle started on November 15 2021 and ended on November 07 2022. So it's been December-to-December and November-to-November Bear Cycles respectively.
If this high degree of symmetry continues to hold, counting 1064 days from the last Cycle Bottom o November 07 2022, gives a time estimate for the next Cycle Top on (the week of) October 06 2025. If also that holds for the Bear Cycle, expect an October-to-October duration, with an approximate bottom on October 12 2026.
So Sell everything up to October 2025 and Buy back as we get close to October 2026 is the strategy?
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin - This Is Just Wonderful!Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) creates textbook market stucture:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
The entire stock market is selling off significantly but Bitcoin and most cryptocurrencies are still holding their strong levels. This is clearly a sign of bullish strength and even if we see a retest of the previous all time high, the overall uptrend remains perfectly valid over the next months.
Levels to watch: $70.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles- by FXPROFESSOR🏆 The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles™ by FXPROFESSOR
Video:
Friends, today I’m sharing what may be the most important Bitcoin framework of 2025.
Forget the broken halving expectations. Forget the chaos of macro headlines.
What if the real signal has been here all along?
What if Bitcoin’s true rhythm follows the capital rotation between itself and the U.S. Treasury market?
📊 Introducing: The Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles™
This is not a model of where Bitcoin could go (like Stock-to-Flow)…
This is a model of when and why it moves — based on the trust rotation between U.S. Treasury Bonds (TLT) and Bitcoin.
What I’ve found is a repeating structure — not based on supply or halvings, but on macro trust dynamics.
🔁 The Two Core Phases:
• Correlated Periods 🟦 (Blue zones): BTC and TLT move together — both rising or falling
• Inverted Periods 🟩 (Green zones): BTC and TLT move in opposite directions
These aren't random — they're structural rotations that occur at key technical levels in the bond market.
🧠 The Cycle Timeline:
Jan 2019 – Feb 2020 → Correlated (pre-COVID calm)
Feb 2020 – Sep 2021 → Inverted (Fed QE, Bitcoin moon)
Sep 2021 – Nov 2022 → Correlated (everything dumps)
Nov 2022 – Oct 2023 → Inverted (TLT collapse, BTC recovers)
Nov 2023 – Aug 2024 → Correlated (sideways digestion)
Aug 2024 – Now (Apr 2025) → Inverted again — and compressing fast
We're now in Period 6 — an Inverted Period — but all signs point to an upcoming Reversion.
📉 What Happens at Each Flip?
These transitions tend to occur when:
• TLT hits major channel support or resistance
• Macro fear or liquidity shocks drive trust shifts
• Smart money starts reallocating across asset classes
Right now, TLT is at channel support — a zone that has previously triggered reversions into correlated periods.
📌 What Comes Next:
According to the Bitcoin Trust Flow Cycles™:
→ We are statistically due for a reversion** back into correlation
→ If TLT bounces from 76–71 zone… BTC may follow — not fight
→ The target remains: BTC breaking above 115 resistance
This flip — from inverse to correlated — has historically marked breakout windows for Bitcoin.
🔮 This Is Bigger Than a Halving
Plan B’s Stock-to-Flow gave us valuable insight into long-term valuation.
But it doesn’t explain timing.
This model isn’t about supply mechanics.
It’s about macro trust mechanics.
When institutional confidence leaves Treasuries…
And enters Bitcoin…
That’s the rotation we track.
That’s what moves the chart now.
🎯 Watchlist: • TLT support: 76 → 71 zone = reversal signal
• BTC breakout trigger: 115 resistance
• Cycle shift: Reversion = Bitcoin joining TLT upside
If this plays out, it could mark the most important trust cycle breakout we’ve seen since the COVID inversion.
Bitcoin doesn’t need permission anymore.
It just needs a macro trigger. And this model helps us spot it.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
📌 Missed the full credit market breakdown? Check my recent posts on BKLN, HYG, LQD, and TLT to understand the full Trust Flow rotation.
Forget halving hype. This new model tracks when Bitcoin moves with (🔄) or against (🔁) U.S. Treasuries — based on macro trust flows.
And right now? We're at the edge of an EPIC reversion.📈📈📈
👇
#Bitcoin #Macro #TrustFlow #TLT CRYPTOCAP:BTC
Market Update - This Stock Market Analysis Aligns With Bitcoin..What if I told you that the stock market’s pattern could actually reveal what’s coming next for Bitcoin—would you stick around and watch the entire video? That’s exactly what I’m diving into here. I didn’t force this analysis to fit; somehow, over the past week, it just lined up this way.
In this video, I break down exactly why the next market move could be more severe than anything we’ve seen in our lifetime—yet it’s not the end of the world. In fact, if approached correctly, this could be the opportunity of a lifetime. The rebound that follows could be massive.
I’ve always had a gut feeling about this, but now the patterns are speaking loud and clear. This is the reason I created AriasWave—and this is exactly where we are right now.
This also aligns with my latest Euro analysis linked below in related ideas.
BITCOIN's 1D MA50 Flip = GREEN LIGHT for the NEXT BIG PUMP!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) closed Saturday's 1D candle above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in more than 2 months (since February 03)! The 1D MA50 got tested and rejected the price 6 times since then. At the same time, the price marginally broke above the Lower Highs trend-line that started on the January 20 All Time High (ATH).
This is the most powerful short-term bullish combination as it was staged on a Bullish Divergence 1D RSI, which is on Higher Lows against the bearish trend's Lower Lows. Technically such break-outs immediate Target is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which now happens to be just below the $100k mark at $99500. In not such a coincidental fashion, that is he last Resistance level that run through February 05 - 21 before BTC's strong tariff sell-off.
So do you think the 1D MA50 break is the green light for a $99500 rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin: Anything Goes Inside The Range.Bitcoin has rallied out of my anticipated 76K AREA reversal zone (see my previous week's analysis). I anticipated this move BEFORE all of the news and drama that transpired over the week because I focus on relevant information that came from this chart. As of now, price is fluctuating in the middle of a consolidation. While price is still attractive in terms of the bigger picture for investment, the fact that it is in the middle of a short term consolidation must be strongly considered for day and swing trade strategies. Here's my perspective.
A double bottom (failed low) has been established around the 74 to 76K area. It does NOT matter why, all that matters is the structure is now in place. This is very important for two specific reasons: 1) it is a broader higher low (Wave 4 bottom?) which implies a higher high or at least test of high is more likely to follow. This means test of 109K over the coming months is within reason. 2) Resistance levels have a greater chance of breaking while supports have a greater chance of being maintained. Current prices up into the 90K resistance are attractive for dollar cost averaging while broader risk can be measured by the 76K area low.
As for swing trades, price is fluctuating at a mid point of a consolidation. The range low is around 76K, the high around 88K (see arrow). When it comes to smaller time frame strategies, consolidation mid points are HIGHLY random areas. This is where you either WAIT it out for a support or resistance to be reached before taking a signal OR go with continuation patterns (Trade Scanner Pro great for this). The higher probability scenario would be a minor retrace into the high 70Ks or low 80Ks for a swing trade long. Otherwise WAIT for the 88K to 90K resistance area for short signals which would be EXTREMELY aggressive given the fact Bitcoin is generally bullish.
And day trades strategies have a similar outlook. Being in the middle of the range means smaller time frame supports and resistances within the area 83K to 88K are going to be less reliable or more random until price momentum asserts itself on the bigger picture. Beginners should simply avoid this environment, but if you must participate, the best way to adjust is work on smaller time frames like 5 minute or less and accept the whatever the R:R ratio is for that time frame. Either way do NOT expect BIG moves until price makes its way to one of the outer boundaries of the range. The Trade Scanner Pro quantifies the R:R for your chosen time frame and gives you a much better idea of what to expect.
The illustration on the chart points to a short term rejection of the 88K to 90K area resistance. This can be attractive for those who are willing to accept greater risk and operate on smaller time frames. IF Bitcoin breaks 90K, it can easily squeeze into the 95K area and all it takes is an unexpected news announcement which seems to happen regularly in this environment. NO ONE knows where the market is going, we can only assign probabilities which is why RISK must be assessed and RESPECTED before ANYTHING else.
This game is hard not because traders lack intelligence, it is because MOST participants believe they are consuming information that is relevant, especially if this behavior has been reinforced by random wins. As retail traders we have to operate with a blind fold while a small minority of participants operate with HIGH quality information. Here's a hint: you will not find truly relevant information on public platforms like Twitter, mainstream news, etc., yet people still turn to these sources when they feel the need to be "informed". Everything you NEED is on your chart.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
Bitcoin looking to break higherIntraday Update: Bitcoin over the weekend is challenging the descending channel trend line and above the channel is the 38% retracement at 87848. This level is being tested as headlines over the weekend suggest that tariffs will not be applied to phones, computer and chips. This should allow for risk assets like Bitcoin to continue to rise higher over the weekend.
BTC USD We're seeing a strong bullish shift across monthly, weekly, and daily timeframes, with significant volume supporting the move towards higher targets. We expect to see increasing volume as we approach those targets. Keep a close eye on the market during weekends and throughout the week; the upcoming weeks should be highly profitable. We've taken long positions and closed all short positions. This decision is based on strong divergences observed in our order flow analysis tools. We're optimistic after the long-awaited sideways price action.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Slammed Back Into Channel SupportBitcoin shed -2.46% today, reversing sharply lower from the top of its descending channel and the 50-day SMA, reaffirming resistance just below $88,700. The rejection puts focus back on the 200-day SMA and mid-channel support.
🔻 Price remains firmly inside the falling channel
📉 MACD is flattening below zero — no bullish crossover yet
⚖️ RSI sits at 44 — modest bearish momentum without being oversold
If price breaks below $79,000, eyes may turn to the lower channel boundary near $72,000, and eventually the long-term trendline closer to $68,000.
Momentum is weak and trend pressure remains tilted downward unless bulls can reclaim the 50-day SMA and break out of this channel decisively.
-MW
Litecoin LTCUSD Completing Final Leg Down Before LaunchAs you can see Litecoin is forming a very similar pattern. I think the rest of March will be corrective. Litecoin will likely come down and bounce off the trend line which coincidental also is a major support level. April will be slightly bullish, May and June will be majorly bullish which I believe Bitcoin will also fly up to 140k as well in this time. I believe Litecoin will outperform the majority of the market. Major hyperinflation will begin this summer which will be very positive for crypto. Many cryptos will die in this hyperinflation period. Only some will survive. Dollar is going to crash. Get ready for a wild ride into 2026. People calling for a bear market are ill informed and will kick themselves for selling. This is the beginning of the biggest run in some cryptos, we've ever seen. Buckle up. Good luck. Not financial advice.
[BTC short] Entry: 81.5k, SL: 83.5k, TP: 67kThe backdrop is my prediction of a 2008-style crash, with Bitcoin (BTC) dropping to $26k (see related ideas).
During the crash, I’ll aim to capitalize on short-term moves, targeting clear patterns with high reward-to-risk ratios.
Following a prolonged consolidation—resembling a triangle—an impulsive wave down has begun to form. I now expect the 200-hour moving average (MA200 H1) to act as resistance, pushing the price to a new low and trade accordingly.
BITCOIN Can a USD sell-off save the Cycle?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is hanging on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) amidst the market chaos and especially following last night's stronger 104% trade tariffs to China from the U.S.
This is a simple yet powerful classic chart, displaying Bitcoin against the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY, black trend-line). This shows the long-term negatively correlated pattern they follow on their Cycles.
Every time DXY entered an aggressive sell-off in the final year of the 4-year Cycle, Bitcoin started its final parabolic rally of its Bull Cycle. This time the DXY peaked exactly at the start of the year (2025) and is on a selling sequence up until today but due to the ongoing Trade War, BTC not only didn't rise but is on a correction too.
Can an even stronger DXY sell-off save the day and complete the 4-year Cycle with a final rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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[BTC] Crash to $26k: Generational Buying OpportunitySince 2022, Bitcoin has surged in a major bull market, hitting the psychological $100k milestone. However, a triple divergence on the weekly RSI signals an overbought market, pointing to an imminent pullback.
The recent peak likely marked the end of Wave (3). Given that Wave (2) was an expanding flat (verifiable on lower timeframes), Wave (4) should bring a sharp, significant correction.
Wave 4 of (3) formed a running triangle, followed by a short Wave 5—exactly as occurred. Running triangles in Wave 4 paired with a brief Wave 5 often indicate distribution, typically preceding a major move against the trend.
The price action from March 2024 into 2025 resembles classic distribution. Since peaking near $110k, Bitcoin has declined slowly but steadily, suggesting a major crash rather than a typical medium-term pullback.
The $26k–$30k range offers robust support, and it’s unlikely the price will drop much lower. Along the way, the 200-week moving average (MA200 Weekly)—Bitcoin’s strongest historical support—could trigger a significant bounce. However, if this level is decisively breached, full-blown panic could ensue.
Given my expectation of a 2008-style bear market in the S&P 500 (see related ideas), the timing aligns perfectly. A market-wide crash would inevitably impact Bitcoin, as panic drives capital out of all markets to meet margin calls.
The $26k zone should mark the crash’s bottom, potentially presenting a generational Bitcoin-buying opportunity. If the S&P 500 retests its COVID lows while Bitcoin only revisits its 2023 consolidation range, it would underscore BTC’s relative strength. Once panic subsides, capital could flood into Bitcoin from across the globe.
Technically, this would be the bottom of Wave (4). Wave (5) could then propel Bitcoin to $1 million per coin in a powerful uptrend.
BITCOIN Downtrend Continues – Is $70K the Next Stop?COINBASE:BTCUSD continues to trade within a well-defined descending channel, maintaining a clear bearish market structure on the daily timeframe. After a strong rejection from the upper boundary of the channel, the price has retraced to a minor support zone around $78,000.
Given the prevailing momentum and strength of the broader downtrend, this support is likely to break under continued selling pressure. A clean breakdown below this level would reinforce the bearish bias and open the door for a move toward the daily support zone near $70,000, which aligns with the lower boundary of the channel.
This zone marks a potential area of interest where price may react or attempt a short-term bounce. However, unless there is a significant shift in momentum, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
Traders should watch for confirmation of the bearish continuation, such as lower highs, weak bullish pullbacks, or increased volume on red candles, before considering short entries.
If you align with this outlook or have additional perspectives, feel free to share your thoughts below.
BTCUSD: Last chance to prove the Bull Cycle is still intact.Bitcoin remains bearish on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 40.819, MACD = 1234.500, ADX = 47.185) as it is on the 3rd red 1W candle in a row, which just hit the 1W MA50. First contact since Sep 2nd 2024. The weeky low is also almost at the HL bottom of the Bull Cycle's Channel Up. Needless to say, it has to hold in order for the bullish trend to continue. Practically this is the market's last chance to prove that the Bull Cycle is still intact. So far the -32% decline is no different that all prior inside the Channel Up but an Arc shaped bottom needs to start forming. If it does and that's the new bottom, expect $160,000 by September.
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Bitcoin Plan.I tried to explain simply the things to pay attention to.
* The purpose of my graphic drawings is purely educational.
* What i write here is not an investment advice. Please do your own research before investing in any asset.
* Never take my personal opinions as investment advice, you may lose your money.
BITCOIN Is it still on track with past Cycles??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) saw a strong correction last week as well as early trade yesterday on Monday, along with all major stock markets, but had an equally impressive round on Wall Street opening, which keeps it so far above its key 1W MA50 on a potentially weekly closing.
So the critical question now is this: Will it continue the pattern of past Cycles and give one more major rally in 2025?
Well based on the BTC Rainbow Waves, it is still on track and actually in a similar situation as July 2013 when after a 3-month correction/ pull-back sequence, it got back to the Blue Buy Zone and near the Fair Value green trend-line.
As you can see all Cycles peaked on the Red Zone and so far on this Cycle we haven't even reached the 1st orange trend-line. Based on the Time Cycles, the next peak should be around November 2025 and if the price action confirms the Rainbow Wave model again, the closest level to the Red Zone by then would be around $180000.
Do you think that amidst the trade war chaos, that's a realistic expectation? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
P.S. I am attaching a snapshot below in case the waves aren't displayed properly on the chart above:
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Bitcoin Signal for Short Lets Make Some Real GameThis is an educational trading setup for Bitcoin (BTC/USD), focusing on a short position opportunity between the $82,000 and $80,000 price levels. The analysis is based on technical indicators, price action strategies, and current market sentiment. Please note: this is not financial advice, strictly for learning purposes!
📉 Trade Concept:
Entry Zone: $82,000
Target Zone: $80,000
Setup Type: Short / Sell
Timeframe: Short-term / Intraday
Market Context: After an extended bullish rally, BTC/USD is showing signs of exhaustion near key resistance. High probability retracement expected towards the $80,000 support area.
🔍 Educational Insights:
Technical Indicators: Overbought RSI levels, bearish divergence, and candlestick reversal patterns around $82,000 zone.
Psychological Levels: $80,000 is a major psychological number where buyers may step in.
Risk Management: Always use stop-losses and proper risk-reward ratios in live trades.
💡 Purpose of Sharing:
This setup is shared purely for educational purposes to help traders understand how to spot potential short opportunities in volatile markets like Bitcoin. Learn how to analyze resistance zones, manage risk, and read price action effectively.
📢 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. For educational purposes only. Always do your own research and consult with a professional before making financial decisions.
#Bitcoin #BTCUSD #CryptoAnalysis #ShortTrade #BitcoinSignal #PriceAction #Educational #TradingStrategy #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoEducation #LearnTrading #RiskManagement
It could be worse for Gold and Bitcoin, right? Apple alone has shed nearly $640 billion in market capitalisation over just three days. The S&P 500 has fallen more than 10% during the same stretch—its worst performance since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. In Asia, the selloff is even more severe, with Japan's Nikkei 225 down nearly 8%, South Korea’s Kospi 200 off almost 6%, and Taiwan equities falling close to 10%, triggering circuit breakers.
In comparison, Bitcoin and Gold, while under pressure, appear to be weathering the downturn with relatively less panic.
Bitcoin has declined around 10%—a notable drop, but not unusual by crypto standards. Trading near $76,000, it has returned to pre-election levels, breaching both short- and long-term support zones.
Gold is tracking its worst three-day performance in over four years. Although some positive forecasts are emerging. Deutsche Bank has revised its year-end gold price forecast upward to $3,350, citing rising recession risks and renewed safe-haven demand.
BTCUSD: Can this M2 supply signal trigger a massive rally?Bitcoin has neutralized the previously oversold levels on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 35.383, MACD = -1887.100, ADX = 31.814) as it is making a strong technical rebound on the 1W MA50. Today's analysis features the Global M2 supply, which is a leading indicator for Bitcoin. Both in July 2024 and November 2022 (the last two major bottoms for the market) when the M2 started to rise aggressively, Bitcoin declined and consolidated. It followed the bullish trend of the M2 with a rise of its own much later. This is similar to what the market has been experiencing since January 2025, when the M2 started rising but Bitcoin peaked on its ATH and started a decline that continues to this very date. If the pattern gets repeated then by end of April - start of May we are in for a strong Bitcoin recovery (if not earlier).
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