BITCOIN Another 1D MA50 rejection. More bleeding ahead?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke again below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) after the 3rd rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) in almost 1 month (since the April 13 bearish break-out). If it stays unbroken, it is a far from ideal development as the 1-year price action has shown us that such a pattern risks making a Lower Low.
The technical structure since April 08 is a Channel Down nonetheless, so such feat is certainly possible on the short-term. As you can see from past 1D MA50 bearish break-outs, BTC tends to get more than 2 rejections and excluding January 2024, it has stayed below the 1D MA100 for longer.
What's interesting is that if that Lower Low is made, it wouldn't just make a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) test, but would also almost complete a -30% decline from the recent All Time High. Something that during Bull Cycle rallies is perfectly natural for Bitcoin.
SO do you think the market will go for it?? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin-btcusd
📉 Bitcoin Price Update: Medium-Term Downtrend Continues 📉Hello, fellow traders and investors! 😊Let's dive into the latest analysis of Bitcoin's price movement.
As we assess the current market conditions, it's evident that we remain within a medium-term downtrend. Despite recent attempts to break above the main descending trendline, the price has failed to sustain upward momentum. This failure to breach the trendline resistance suggests that further downside movement is likely in the near future.📉
What can we expect next?👀 With anticipated minor pullbacks along the way, it's reasonable to project a descent towards the key psychological level of $60,000. However, the journey doesn't end there. Once we reach this level, it will be crucial to closely observe price action for potential further developments.
While my bias leans towards a continuation of the downtrend with a target of $58,000 and potentially lower, it's important to exercise patience and vigilance. Market dynamics can change rapidly, and it's essential to adapt our strategies accordingly.📊
Stay tuned for more updates as we navigate through these market movements together! Don't hesitate to share your insights and observations in the comments below.🩷
Happy trading!🫶
Thanks for Your attention 🫶
Always sincerely with You, Kateryna💙💛
BITCOIN Nothing to stop this Channel reaching 100k.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is trading within the Rally Channel (green) with the price having already reached its bottom, making the 2nd Higher Low of the pattern. This is the very same pattern that emerged in the previous Cycle after the Growth Channel Up and took BTC to its new All Time High (ATH) at the time.
Both Growth Channels had a crash event below them, the previous Cycle even had a bubble event above it (Libra euphoria). But once the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) turned into a Support after the Halving, the Bitcoin rally never looked back.
The 1W STOCH indicator, which is very similar to the past Cycle as well, shows that we might even be much earlier in the Cycle symmetrically than we think of. In any case the next two Higher Highs for the Rally Channel are $100k and $140k.
But what do you think? Are those Targets even plausible, let alone achievable by the end of Summer? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Approaching Pullback SupportBitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling towards a pullback support that has been identified as the pivot. Could this crypto-currency stall around this level before potentially reversing to bounce higher towards the 1st resistance?
Pivot: 61,784.37
1st Support: 59,147.37
1st Resistance: 64,566.91
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bitcoin stages rebound but large speculators are not buyingFollowing a breakdown below $57,000, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rebounded last week in a broad market risk-on move. Currently, it trades near the $64,000 price tag, situated slightly above the 20-day SMA, which now acts as a critical support level; a failure to hold ground above this level will be concerning, while a success could foreshadow continuation higher. With that in regard, resistance at $67,241 and support at 60,760 are of the utmost focus.
Illustration 1.01
The image portrays the daily chart of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and two simple moving averages. The 20-day SMA acts as the critical support level, while the 50-day SMA acts as resistance. Thus far, Bitcoin has managed to close above the 20-day SMA for two consecutive days, which is quite positive. However, due to closes above this level occurring over the weekend, it is appropriate to wait for at least one more close above the 20-day SMA before committing to a bullish narrative.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows simple support and resistance levels on the daily chart of Bitcoin (BTCUSD).
Bitcoin addresses
Interestingly, despite last week’s drop below $60,000, the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC has not increased, potentially hinting at large speculators’ lack of appetite to buy Bitcoin at a discount. The same applies to the addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC.
Technical conditions
Daily time frame = Slightly bearish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Monthly time frame = Bullish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BTC (Bitcoin vs US Dollar) :: Super Bullish Trend Soon !!!On the monthly time frame, the RSI pattern of 2017 is repeating, which led to a great bull run.
I think it needs a monthly confirmation candle to close above the $75,000 price, in such a situation, a huge bull run in crypto could start.
At that time, the peak of 2013, i.e. $1,200, was a monthly major pivot, which in 2017 needed to form a monthly bullish candle to confirm the upward passage.
Currently, the 2021 peak of $69,000 is a major monthly pivot and a monthly bullish candlestick above $75,000 must be closed to confirm the breakout of the 2021 peak.
MarketBreakdown | EURUSD, BITCOIN, CRUDE OIL, EURGBP
Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list.
1️⃣ #EURUSD daily time frame 🇪🇺🇺🇸
EURUSD is trading in a bearish trend on a daily.
The price is falling steadily within a falling wedge pattern.
With a recent correctional movement, the price reached the resistance of the range.
A trend-following movement may initiate soon.
Alternatively, a bullish breakout of the resistance of the wedge will trigger a trend reversal.
2️⃣ #BITCOIN daily time frame ₿
After a very bullish movement on Friday, the market violated a resistance line
of a falling wedge pattern on a daily.
It is the important sign of strength of the buyers.
Looks like the market may keep growing.
3️⃣ #WTI CRUDE OIL 🛢️
As I predicted, Crude Oil keeps falling.
The price is very close to 2 significant demand clusters.
Probabilities will be high to see a pullback from one of these structures.
4️⃣ #EURGBP daily time frame 🇪🇺🇬🇧
The price nicely respected a key daily horizontal demand zone
and bounced from that.
With a clear strength of the buyers the pair may keep growing easily.
Do you agree with my market breakdown?
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
BTC/USD Long Signal: It's NOT over yet! Bullish Flag PatternWe're spotlighting a LONG opportunity for BTCUSD (Spot & Futures)
Trading Signal
Entries: 63.5k (Market Orders), 67k (Conditional Limit Orders)
Stop Loss: 57.9k to safeguard your trade (Limit Sell)
Profit Targets
Target 1: 82k, adjust to breakeven
Target 2: 89k
Target 3: 102k
Helpful Tips
Save Money: Use limit orders instead of market orders for lower fees.
Stick To Your Plan: This is key for making progressive gains!
Control Your Risk: Your stop-loss order protects you against unforseen market reversals.
We aim to provide high-quality signals that guide you to success. Happy trading!
Please make sure to Boost this idea & follow this account if you want to see more of this content. We appreciate it!
Pullback resistance at 78.6% Fibonacci retracementBitcoin (BTC/USD) is rising towards a pullback resistance that has been identified as the pivot. Could this crypto-currency stall around this level before potentially reversing to drop lower towards the 1st support?
Pivot: 64,566.91
1st Support: 61,784.37
1st Resistance: 66,916.02
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
MSTR MicroStrategy Incorporated Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold MSTR on this potential fair value retracement:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MSTR MicroStrategy Incorporated prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 1250usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-5-17,
for a premium of approximately $120.25.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
USDT Dominance just failed and doing BTC a huge favor!On this chart we see a major development on the USDT Dominance (USDT.D). It formed its first ever Death Cross on the 5D time-frame, with the MA200 (orange trend-line) turning into Resistance since the start of February.
That has never happened in its history and as you can see, when USDT.D declines, Bitcoin (black trend-line) rallies, which has been doing so aggressively since early October 2023.
This is a sign that the current rally on BTCUSD might be far from over and if anything can even be much more aggressively than we initially thought.
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XRPUSDT → Ripple prepares for 70% growth ↑BINANCE:XRPUSDT is forming a technical false break of support, in the long term consolidation above the zone should be formed with the purpose of continuation of growth, the potential of which can be opened by 50-70%
The price on W1 is squeezed within the triangle. Another attempt to retest the resistance zone is being formed. At the moment, the market is restrained from strong growth by the proceedings between the SEC and XRP. Ripple recently announced that they are willing to pay a $10 million fine instead of $2 billion, while two strong lawyers are resigning from the SEC. The upside potential will be a price consolidation above the 0.500 area and on a breakout of 0.73.
Support levels: 0.5000, 0.4226
Resistance levels: 0.6431, 0.7325, 0.8547
If the legal nuances are closed soon, a new bullish time will come for XRP and Ripple will start to conquer new peaks.
Regards R. Linda!
Bitcoin steady above support. Are bears done?At the beginning of the month, due to tensions in the Middle East, BITSTAMP:BTCUSD dropped below the crucial 62k technical support level, even dipping below 60k to reach a local low at 57k.
However, this breakdown was short-lived, with BTC spending only 2 days below this significant level before reversing strongly. This reversal confirmed a false break when the price returned above 62k.
Over the weekend, Bitcoin also broke above the falling trend line of the recent downward channel, further bolstering its bullish perspective.
Currently, we are facing resistance at both the technical and psychological level of 65k. Once (or if) we break above this level, the path becomes clear to revisit the old all-time high zone and potentially even move further upward.
As long as 62k remains intact, I maintain a strong bullish stance.
Bitcoin: Watch For Pullback 60K.Bitcoin has retraced off the 56,400 area support (level has been on this chart for months), straight back to 64K. The arrows on the chart point to the consecutive lows that characterize a failed low pattern. This brings price to a tricky area for new swing trades. The 64K area is a resistance and NOT an ideal spot for new longs on this time frame. In this scenario I am waiting for the retrace (see illustration) back to 60K support to look for swing trade long signals.
In fact my system (Trade Scanner Pro) is showing a long at the current price on this time frame, but the risk is enormous (like 7K points). This is where having a good grasp of context can help to filter out such low probability signals. Identifying RELEVANT support/resistance levels in advance provides a way to ANTICIPATE price behavior and offers an effective reference point to expect signals. Not to mention the boost of confidence that comes from the preparedness when the signals appears.
It is also important to understand that when using conventional methods to evaluate ANY market, the random nature will most likely lead to a 50% probability of being right. Most traders (especially beginners) place heavy emphasis on being right (high win rate) and do not realize that is the equivalent of expecting a high win rate from a slot machine. Slot machines are 100% random (in theory anyway) while the market is not because markets trend. This means there is a chance to beat the market BUT it requires strong knowledge of inefficiencies and typical trader behavioral patterns (not common tools like RSI).
I mention this because the illustrations on my chart that represent the scenario that I am anticipating for the coming week are not always right and nor do I expect them to be. These are not forecasts, these are ideal patterns that I would like to see in order to confirm some kind of action or decision. It is basically a big IF. I have no clue where the markets are going, instead I come up with an estimate based on recent history and then ADJUST to what the market actually chooses to do from there. ADJUSTING is KEY.
The sooner you accept this idea, the sooner you will begin to appreciate high value market information vs. the 99% of nonsense that most traders consume (too much internet!). Less is MORE in this game simply because most of what is publicly available does NOT improve your chances of positive outcome over time.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITCOIN - The Dreaded Update...Our last Bitcoin analysis caused quite the stir... Understandably those that are holding Bitcoin would want to see it moon BUT we would rather be cautious and mark out any other possible scenarios that may happen and would allow us to buy into Bitcoin more before it moons.
Now that we've completed wave B, we can see that we made a new high = can't be a 535 flat and so this 335 Flat correction appears to fit this bearish scenario.
We are expecting 5 waves down for Wave C. The best place to enter Shorts would be once we make the wave 2 correction. We'll have a tight invalidation level present and have incredible room to drop, allowing us a big risk to reward ratio.
Our bearish scenario invalidation level sits at around 74k. We'll remain bearish as long as we stay below that level.
Once we see the wave 2 correction, we'll be sure to update you guys!
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
See below for our previous analysis.
Bitcoin Price at CRITICAL Point!As a follow-up to my Idea from May 1st where I pointed out the key Volume Profile Support of 56.9k that has held and now we go into the weekend at the Volume Profile Resistance of 62k.
Which of these breaks... Support or Resistance... will be the way Bitcoin goes! Does the bull trend fail or continue? Ichimoku will be the decider.
Last Support for BitcoinToday Bitcoin has hit the last level of Support for the Bullish Trend that has persisted since October 2023. This comes after making a new All Time High but failing to truly capture the prior All Time High by closing decidedly above it on the Weekly/Monthly.
The Level in question price has hit is a medium-significance Volume Profile level from the bullish trend. Volume Profile has had incredible efficacy in predicting the inflection points of Bitcoin during the last few months.
The significant levels above the current price action are:
$62k Support to Turn Resistance
$51.8k Support
It is important to note WHY this is the "last Support" for Bitcoin here at $51.9k. In the near future I will publish a video about Bitcoin and the Daily Ichimoku cloud as an update to past talks about this method of analysis. TL;DR following the Daily Ichimoku Cloud for trend analysis with Bitcoin is superior to just HODL and I will prove it.
For now, price is NOT bearish. In fact, the bullish trend is contained by the cloud just as it was in January 2024.
However, if price moves down to the NEXT Support at $51.8k it will invalidate the bullish trend flipping it bearish. It is likely price will respond to that support but by then the bullish trend of 2023-2024 will have ended.
Price must hold here at this Support and then it can recapture the cloud to resume to Bullish Trend. This is a highly decisive moment in Price action today.
ALT SEASON can start as early as next week and this is why.We frequently look at the altcoin market and very often look for clues on its dominance and market cap. A historic comparison of alts with Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles shows that alts bottom after Bitcoin, a lag which is natural considering that BTC is the market leader. Similarly it is possible for alts to rally when Bitcoin is correcting or consolidating.
Using Bitcoin's Halvings as a measure to separate pre and post-Halving phases, we can see that in the past two Cycles, alts have made a dump within the green zone following Bitcoin's Halving.
On this Cycle however, we see that very same dump having started since late December 2023, while Bitcoin rallied aggressively, which is in our opinion attributed to the ETF anticipation and then launch in January 2024. It is therefore very probable that this was the alt market's 'post-Halving dump'.
In any case, Alts have reached the bottom of their usual Bullish Megaphone that is historically formed when they bottom. It is therefore very probable to see the new Alt Season, which is when alts rally parabolically and naturally more aggressively than Bitcoin, starting as early as next week.
What do you think?
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