Bitcoin on the Brink of a New Bull Run Post-HalvingBitcoin's price has begun to surge once again, indicating a potential new bull run following its recent halving. The price action is currently within a bullish channel, and technical indicators combined with Fibonacci ratios suggest the onset of a fresh bullish impulse.
The Halving Effect: A Catalyst for Price Appreciation
On April 19, Bitcoin underwent its fourth halving event. These halvings, which occur approximately every four years, are integral to Bitcoin's monetary policy. They aim to maintain scarcity by halving the inflation rate, which has now dropped to just 0.85%—a lower rate than that of gold, often deemed the ultimate store of value and inflation hedge.
Over the long term, the reduction in Bitcoin's inflation rate is expected to drive price appreciation. As demand for Bitcoin increases, the limited supply of 21 million coins will face increasing pressure, creating significant potential for price rises.
Even in the short term, the halving effect enhances Bitcoin's attractiveness as an investment. Historically, Bitcoin's price has risen by an average of 125% in years when a halving occurs. This suggests that, starting from the beginning of the year, Bitcoin's price could potentially exceed $100,000, offering substantial returns given the current price around $69,000. Furthermore, Bitcoin's best performance typically happens in the year following a halving, with historical gains exceeding 400%.
Significant Institutional Interest and Bitcoin's Role in the Financial Landscape
For much of its history, Bitcoin's rise has been driven by retail investors. However, this dynamic is set to change significantly. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs has made it easier for institutional investors with vast capital reserves to invest in the cryptocurrency. This influx of major Wall Street players is likely to exert unprecedented pressure on Bitcoin's finite supply, echoing its early days of high demand.
The approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF also reflects the market's current perception of Bitcoin and its role in the financial ecosystem. In contrast, Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, faces ongoing debates over ETF approval as regulators determine whether it is a security or a commodity. This regulatory scrutiny extends to all cryptocurrencies, creating uncertainty about their classification.
It's crucial to note that an SEC classification of a cryptocurrency as a security does not spell the end for that blockchain. Many of these assets are highly decentralized and would continue to operate even if faced with litigation from the SEC. Cryptocurrencies are traded globally and are not confined to the laws of any single country.
However, regulatory risks are a significant concern for markets. Bitcoin stands out as a relatively safer investment in this regard. The SEC has already classified Bitcoin as a commodity, placing it outside the agency's regulatory control. This classification grants Bitcoin unique staying power and a degree of protection against regulatory scrutiny.
Bitcoin's current bullish trend, supported by the recent halving and growing institutional interest, sets the stage for potential substantial price appreciation. The reduced inflation rate and increasing demand create a strong case for Bitcoin's long-term value. Meanwhile, its classification as a commodity provides a safeguard against regulatory risks, further solidifying its position as a leading asset in the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin-btcusd
BTC / m1the massive HS on BTCUSD/M1
M1 is the money supply that encompasses physical currency and coin, demand deposits, traveler's checks, and other checkable deposits.
For a few years ive been very curious about this way to look at things.
It looks very very bullihs, and so does SPX/M1 as I link to here :
It all can fit as a new dot.com boom featuring AI and crypto.
I mean.. isnt that coming ?
$BTC is testing the major resistance zone#bitcoin #btc price is about reclaim the trend line. If breaks out resistance zone #btcusd price will be more optimistic. This' also the bearish retest of the zone #btcusdt lose the dormer trend support and so i call here as major resistance zone. Not financial advice.
Bitcoin: Push Back To 70Ks?Bitcoin support at the 66K area continues to hold and may be the higher low (wave (iv)) that may lead to a higher high over the coming weeks (see illustration). In order for a dramatic new high like 80K to be tested, price needs to prove itself by clearing 73K first. The key to navigating this is to WAIT for the market to provide evidence (confirmation), NOT get stuck on an opinion about the future. Even though the broader trend is bullish, UNTIL it breaks out, it is within reason to expect the consolidation to continue.
Recognizing the support/resistance levels within broader consolidations can help to uncover numerous opportunities, especially on smaller time frames. For example, while I consider the 66K area a minor support on this time frame (see arrow), this location is a great spot to anticipate longs on day trade time frames like the 1 or 5 minute chart.
When using such levels as a form of context to guide decisions, traders often do not understand how to shape expectations relative to the magnitude of the time frame. For instance, price movements on a 1 minute chart are typically smaller than a 5 minute or 1 hour chart. Knowing this should shape expectations in terms of reward/risk. This is one of the problems I aimed to solve when coming up with the idea for Trade Scanner Pro by automating the exit points using the average true range (ATR).
The same can be said about the 70K whole number resistance area. This is an ideal location to WAIT for sell signals, whether to take profit or an aggressive counter trend trade short. Again the location provides a point of reference where we can anticipate a particular price behavior or opportunity. It is up to the MARKET to confirm and even then, there is a chance it can get stopped out (markets are mostly RANDOM).
My analysis is meant to shed light on a select range of possibilities over the coming week for day and swing traders. I have to remind people of this because many come to these articles expecting to gain knowledge of the future. It will take some time to realize effective risk management has NOTHING to do with where price will be in the future. There is no way to forecast the future accurately, ESPECIALLY using the limited information that is available on charts.
The idea is to help you prepare for potential opportunities that I believe have a greater probability of a positive outcome because of the price location relative to the trend. The MARKET decides what scenario will play out, not me or anyone else. To align with the market, we must have a passive mindset, good listening skills and the ability to admit being wrong QUICKLY, especially on smaller time frames.
So here is how to prepare of the coming week: IF the low 66Ks are tested, look for longs, IF 66K breaks, avoid longs and reevaluate new levels. IF 70K is tested, look to take profits, or consider aggressive shorts (counter trend). IF 70K is cleared, watch for test of 73K. How you navigate your positions is a function of your risk tolerance and personal style. Most importantly, let the market do the THINKING, you simply adjust to the new information as it appears.
Thank you for your considering my analysis and perspective.
Right where we are supposed to be in the #Bitcoin cycle. Watch the calendar not
the price.
Hard to implement.
But it's the only way to keep your sanity investing in #Crypto :)
We have had double bubble's
Parabolic tops
marginally higher high, double tops
what next a rising wedge top, triple top , a clean head and shoulders?
all that we know , we must fear the euphoria and fade the crowd.
Bitcoin Marketcap v Federal reserve M1A nod to @unbeldi
And a updated chart
Swapping the Bitcoin price to marketcap over the M1 money
As BTC is a Trillion dollar asset again
and was invented to be peer to peer cash
It's good to compare the ratio vs the dollar.
And imagine one day in the future that it may dethrone the King.
Since BTC is natively digital and global
(M2 is slightly larger number and the more commonly used metric @ 20.86 Trillion)
The number of coins I used for the 100k & 400k price projections
was 19,791,006
If you wanted to check my maths
This is the current and supply and the estimate of number of coins in 10 months time.
WEN ATH for #Bitcoin ... July 2024Based on past cycles
The breakout should occur around 33 months post the 2021 high
With the top occurring Q4 2025
This could be front run of course. As the thesis laid out by Bob Loukas.
And I do lean into the idea this is going to be a major top for #BTC
Resulting in the halvening failing to provide the expected pump in 2028
The quickening of #BTC RSI & price extremes!I don't make the rules.
:)
We are just surfing the waves of emotions,
of the crowds.
Here we have Monthly line chart with the RSI
It clearly shows a quickening of the trend and how the 4 year cycle is likely to fail this time around.
It is too well know as a theory and will be front ran.
(in my opinion)
We should get a RSI peak at this rate, around May (could be June ofc)
and second lower peak around November (or DEC )
As always good luck in your speculations
#Crypto's are highly speculative instruments as we all know
During these tops you will be told many stories
you must have the wherewith-all to ignore the noise.
Strong Monthly Altseason Argument ETHBTCThe Gaussian Channel shows a bullish trend on this Monthly timeframe with a strong bounce off the middle line of the channel.
This as a point of reversal allows ETHUSD and other altcoins to out perform BTC on a Monthly scale.
I think BTC will Top very early compared to that of Ethereum and other altcoins.
BTCUSDT could be heading towards a new All-Time HighWe can clearly see that 67k is a very strong support/demand area, which is currently being respected. And as long as Bitcoin remains above, without a decisive daily break and close blow 66k, we will continue to expect a potential rally.
Along with the BTC, Alts should feel very strong as well, and many should go ballistic.
BITCOIN Inverse Head and Shoulders targeting $79500Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is technically about to complete the Right Shoulder of the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern (IH&S) that followed the All Time High (ATH) of March 14. The driving vessel behind it is a (dotted) Channel Up whose Bullish Leg peaked at +19.50% and its two Bearish Legs so far have been around -8.00%.
As you may realize, there is a high degree of structural symmetry on these patterns as even the IH&S has distinct Support and Resistance Zones, with Sour interest currently being on Support Zone 1, which has already held twice since May 23.
As a result, as long as it holds along with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), the trend remains bullish and the IH&S technical dynamics target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at $89000. However we keep at the moment a shorter term perspective and before 89k, we will aim at $79500, which would be a +19.50% rise, similar to the Channel's previous Bullish Leg.
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD: Entering the parabolic phase.Bitcoin is on excellent bullish levels on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 66.472, MACD = 251.100, ADX = 42.204). Following the correction of the last two months, the market has entered the green zone of the Cycle, which is its parabolic phase. This historic chart on the 1W timeframe shows that this phase lasts around 560 days while the previous blue one, which extends from the bottom of the Cycle, lasts around 500 days. This is a clear indication that at least for a year, Bitcoin will most likely rise parabolically with a possible target zone of 200,000 - 300,000.
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Bitcoin to 91kBitcoin is holding little down trend resistance, but it is a matter of time to break it. It is possible to see little correction to 64.5k - 65k area. Closing candle above 74k is gonna be huge sign to go up. In the end we are going to see 91k or even higher. This could be final push and after that Bitcoin could ease down a little give some chance to altcoins to go to up, to do that BTC.D ( Bitcoin Dominance ) must go down!
$BTC testing the trend line #bitcoin #btc must hold purple line support to be bullish in LTF. However, an inverse cup & handle pattern (bearish) is forming. If #btcusd breaks support, the next support is dEMA100 (the red bow), if dump gets deeper, the orange box is strong support zone.
Invalidation: #btcusdt price breaks out 72 - 75K zone permanently.
Not financial advice.
$BTC may draw something like this?#bitcoin #btc price has been in correction (or consolidation?) since march's top. There're still notable liquidations at 71 - 75K #usd zone. The lower boxes are there the strong resistance zones. In this scenario i may expect #btcusd price to retreat to daily EMA200 UNLESS #btcusdt breaks out 75K zone, so this is the invalidation.
Not financial advice.
btc → broke the trendlinehello guys...
as you can see, btc made a double bottom and broke the trendline at the same time!
we can expect an upward movement.
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