Bitcoin's Impressive Trajectory and the Road to $100,000Over the past 15 years, Bitcoin has consistently exceeded projections and expectations. In just over a decade, its value has surged from mere pennies per coin to over $50,000 by 2021, capturing global attention.
As of June 2024, Bitcoin's price hovers around $70,000, with the next major milestone being the highly anticipated six-figure mark. While reaching $100,000 may seem ambitious, historical trends suggest it's increasingly likely. The pressing question remains: When will Bitcoin surpass the $100,000 threshold? Could it happen in 2024?
Any prediction regarding Bitcoin's future is inherently speculative, but such speculation encourages us to evaluate long-term developments in the investment landscape.
To forecast Bitcoin's performance, it's crucial to consider trends related to its halving events. A halving is a pre-programmed occurrence approximately every four years that halves the reward for mining new blocks, forming the basis of Bitcoin's monetary policy. This mechanism decreases the rate at which new bitcoins are created over time, contributing to its scarcity and historically driving price appreciation. Bitcoin's most recent halving in April 2024 reduced its inflation rate to just 0.85%.
Examining previous halvings reveals that Bitcoin's price typically increases by around 125% in the year of a halving. Starting from a price of $44,000 at the beginning of 2024, a 125% increase would place Bitcoin at $99,000. If this halving has a similar impact as previous ones, Bitcoin should be close to the $100,000 mark in 2024. However, there's another variable to consider that could boost Bitcoin beyond this threshold: the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Historically, Bitcoin's rise was driven mainly by retail investors. With the advent of spot Bitcoin ETFs, institutional investors can now accumulate Bitcoin without regulatory or custodial concerns. This new vehicle for Bitcoin exposure is already making an impact. In February, ETFs were purchasing Bitcoin at a rate 10 times the daily production rate, pushing its price to a new all-time high. Although the buying rate has cooled, it’s likely just the beginning. If buying resumes at those levels post-halving, ETFs would outpace Bitcoin's daily supply by 20 times.
2024 is shaping up to be the year Bitcoin could reach $100,000. With its price around $70,500 today, this represents a potential 40% gain. However, it’s important to note that Bitcoin often sees its most significant gains in the year following a halving. Historically, Bitcoin has soared by more than 400% on average in the post-halving year. If Bitcoin doesn't reach $100,000 in 2024, 2025 remains a strong possibility.
Whether it happens this year or next, ongoing halvings, increasing adoption, and institutional involvement make a compelling case for Bitcoin to continue surprising us for years to come.
Bitcoin-btcusd
Bitcoin: Back To 64K Again?Bitcoin has rejected the 70k to 72K resistance area AGAIN. This failed breakout may lead to a retest of the 64K to 66K support zone in the coming week. IF 64K is compromised, it will imply that the current minor impulse structure is not valid and reinforces the argument that price is likely to consolidate further. This scenario opens the possibilities of testing 60K and 56K in the coming weeks.
The arrow on my chart points to the 64,500 area where waves (i) and (iv) can potentially overlap. This is key to maintaining the impulse structure and short term bullish expectations. IF this area continues to hold, it implies wave (iv) is still in play and a bullish leg higher is within reason. For this reason, the 64K to 66K area is an ideal location to anticipate bullish setups on smaller time frames. The confirmation is the key to capitalizing effectively and this is where my Trade Scanner Pro shines and what I demonstrate during my streams.
IF wave (v) follows, the 73K resistance is likely to be tested and favored to break. This level still represents a place reduce risk (take profits) and look for low expectation short setups. A strong break should see price close in the 74K area at LEAST. Keep in mind "probability" means there is still a chance price can fail. A favorable pattern on a chart does NOT guarantee certainty.
Knowing your levels in advance and evaluating them within the scope of a relevant trend is a key component to success in this game. Being able to adjust to new information will serve you better than clinging to an opinion, no matter how logical it may be. The collective perception of market participants is what determines the value of an asset or price. This "perceived value" is constantly changing as new information reaches the market. Having an opinion, especially a "logical" one offered by an expert is ineffective because it typically operates under the assumption that nothing material will change. This is why NO ONE was able to forecast the infamous pullback to 15K. Remember that?
By utilizing a LESS IS MORE framework, I am able to anticipate short term movements but MORE importantly evaluate them in terms of RISK. If you see my articles written over previous weeks my anticipated scenarios (illustrated on the chart) have been inline with the actual outcome. These forecasts are a result of ONLY 2 components: Relevant TREND, SUPPORT/RESISTANCE level, NOTHING more.
I don't aim to be right, I aim to contain RISK. Markets are MOSTLY RANDOM, which means to successfully navigate, the focus should be on what we can control. How you manage risk will shape your entire decision making process, techniques and strategies you choose to employ. By filtering out most information and purely focusing on the limited information that carries any relevance at all I am able to gain an actionable point of reference. From there it is totally up to the market to show its hand. Managing risk is about ADJUSTING to new information while following a set of rules to keep losses and expectations proportional to ones account.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BTC → breakout the trianglehello guys...
as you can see, the price broke the triangle so we can consider btc will reach to FWB:73K area at least!
on the other hand, it is sticking between the last trendline and breaking the bottom line of the ascending channel.
I think it will be on a compression for a while and then it will start an upward movement!
the last analysis:
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$BTC looks bearish#btc #bitcoin price didn't cross the major resistance area at 72K and then heavily dumped. Thus, a bearish double top has been formed. Short term bounces may be necessary but the continuation is bearish. In lower time frame, #btcusd is moving in the ascending channel.
By the way #gold and #silver heavily dumped, too. It seems rumors have been sold and the news will arrive.
Not financial advice.
Future TargetsBitcoin moved to the 4-hour support range of $70,500 - $70,150, found support, and then hit the resistance at $71,500, where it was initially rejected.
If Bitcoin breaks this resistance, it could move towards higher targets. Over the weekend, expect it to range within this area and complete a pullback before continuing upward towards $75,000. Currently, it is testing both static and dynamic resistance levels.
Key levels are: Support: $70,500 / Resistance: $71,500
BTC/USD Local trend 11/19/2023Logarithm. Time frame 3 days. Rising channel. The chart shows key support/resistance levels for working in a local trend.
Code zone 273 or synchronization specifically with the price of $ 27,3 00—this is the main key break zone of the downward trend. We are now in the zone of the previous distribution of the 2020-2021 cycle.
Scale for understanding.
Bitcoin: JUNE 7TH, 2024Hello dear traders. Hope you're doing ok.
This is my #btc expectation in the short and mid term.
Let's get down to the nitty-gritty of the PA.
Price MIGHT take out yesterday's low, fill the FVG, and then continue the upward momentum. If not, we'll move towards the clean highs at the top of the range, and the PA will be of significance there. I will definitely exit my long, especially if I see a major push with high volume, and monitor the price. Acceptance back into the range will be a short trigger towards some lows around 68500 and 66K. That will be the ideal scenario to long again towards some dizzying heights. However, if price manages to maintain above the range high, and form structure, I will begin to consider longing. Momentum EMAs have shaped up nicely, and I assume we'll pick up pace soon.
If you find the idea useful, please like, share, and subscribe for more updates. Good luck trading!
BITCOIN SWING SHORT|
✅BITCOIN is approaching a supply level of just below 74,000$
So according to our strategy
We will be looking for the signs of the reversal in the trend
To jump onto the bearish bandwagon just on time to get the best
Risk reward ratio for us
SHORT🔥
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BTC Price Analysis: Poised for Increased Volatility and...BTC Price Analysis: Poised for Increased Volatility and Potential Growth
Bitcoin (BTC) traded around $70,800 on Wednesday's opening, with insights from Glassnode suggesting that the largest digital asset could be primed for increased volatility if it reaches a new all-time high in the coming days.
Insights from Glassnode
Key metrics from Glassnode highlight the significant role long-term holders could play in dictating Bitcoin's price action in the near future. According to Glassnode:
1. Unrealized Profits: Most long-term Bitcoin holders are sitting on substantial unrealized profits, suggesting potential for market moves if these holders decide to realize gains.
2. Coin Age Metric: Coins younger than three months old account for 41% of the network's wealth. The coin age metric measures how long a coin has been held in a particular address, indicating liquidity distribution between short-term and long-term holders. The 41% share of <3-month-old coins shows that liquidity held by new demand is beginning to grow, suggesting increased market activity and potential volatility.
Technical Analysis Overview
From a technical standpoint, BTC remains within a bullish channel, trading above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP). Key technical observations include:
1. Bullish Channel: BTC continues to trade within a bullish channel, indicating an ongoing upward trend.
2. Support Levels: The price is currently retesting yesterday's high resistance level as a support level, signaling potential for further growth.
3. Indicators: Staying above the 50% Fibo and VWAP suggests strong support and potential for continued bullish momentum.
Market Strategy
Given the current technical setup and the fundamental backdrop provided by Glassnode's insights, our strategy involves looking for long positions in BTC. The bullish channel, strong support levels, and indicators of increasing liquidity held by new demand all point towards potential growth.
Bitcoin is positioned for potential increased volatility and growth, supported by both technical and fundamental factors. Insights from Glassnode indicate that long-term holders and growing new demand could play significant roles in BTC's price action. Technically, the bullish channel and strong support levels further reinforce the bullish outlook. As a result, the current market environment presents an opportunity to consider long positions in BTC, anticipating continued upward movement and potential new all-time highs.
$70,000 continues to be an obstacle for BitcoinYesterday, Bitcoin again tested the resistance near $70,000 but failed. After soaring to $70,258, it quickly dropped below $69,000, where it currently trades. Overall, not much has changed from a technical perspective since our previous update; merely the sideways trend of a lesser degree became more apparent, with Bitcoin struggling at the $70,000 mark. As such, our focus continues to lie at this point, along with the two sloped channels shown below.
Illustration 1.01
The daily chart of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) above shows the descending channel, with its upper bound acting as an important resistance for the price. To support a bullish case in the short term, it would be ideal for Bitcoin to close above the resistance level for multiple consecutive days; the resistance’s importance grows with each retest.
Illustration 1.02
The image above shows the ascending channel within the larger descending channel; its lower bound acts as a resistance.
Illustration 1.03
The illustration above displays an alternative trendline on Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) daily graph, which acts as critical support for the price.
Technical conditions
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Bullish (losing momentum)
Monthly time frame = Bullish
Bitcoin addresses
Initially, the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC increased slightly after the big slump we described on 29th May 2024. However, while this figure is still above its 28th May 2024 level, it resumed a decline in a new month, which is not a particularly positive sign. The same trend can be observed among the addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Moon is near 🚀Hello, everyone! 🩷Have we finally made it? Is Bitcoin really about to surpass all previous highs? 🙏We’ll find out very soon, and I think it’s quite possible! Fingers crossed! 🤞
Bitcoin is rapidly gaining momentum, and this is a great signal that we are on the right track!
Many of you have seen my chart where I analyzed some price movement algorithms, and we are currently continuing the growth phase. For those who haven’t seen it yet, make sure to check it out by clicking on the post.👇
As for the current situation, what do we see on the chart?
The price broke out of the triangle upwards and tested it, indicating an organic movement, followed by further growth.
What can we expect next? We anticipate continued growth to levels of 🟢 74,000 - 78,000 in the short term, and in the medium term, 🟢 82,000 - 87,000!
If You’re also interested in learning how to trade the triangle pattern, You can find a detailed description in my post below. Learn and trade smart! 👇
Thanks for Your attention🫶
Always sincerely Yours, Kateryna💙💛
Bitcoin- rise to at least 85kBitcoin's price action has been pretty boring in recent days. In fact, for the past three months, BTC/USD has been stuck in a range.
However, as I mentioned in my previous analysis, bulls have held very well above the important 67k support level.
At the time of writing, the price is 71k, once more facing the established resistance.
A break of this level is expected, and a rise of at least 20% should follow afterward.
I remain bullish as long as the price stays above 67k.
An increased inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFBitcoin moved higher lately, breaking some key resistance barriers. This might have been initiated by the inflow of new funds into the Bitcoin ETF.
#BTCUSD EASYMARKETS:BTCUSD
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
BITCOIN You might not be ready for such June!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is doing it and yet again it is going under the radar for some. The price broke out yesterday from its short-term Falling Wedge and as we showed you is extending the Bullish Leg of the Channel Up.
Zooming out to the 1M time-frame, we can see that May closed in gains (green) and since August 2023, there has only been one month of losses (red 1M candle) and that was April. Even though that injected some uncertainty to market participants, we clearly see on this long-term chart that sporadic 1 month losses are very common in Bull Cycles, especially during parabolic rallies.
In fact they are essential as they create the right shake-out conditions to keep fueling the rally. The symmetry among BTC's Cycles is remarkable and right now with the 1W MA50 (black trend-line) in deep support, it is attempting to get detached from the Mayer Multiple (MM) 1 SD above (grey trend-line), much like it did on October 2020 and April 2017.
Based on that, we are looking for the rally to extend to at least the end of the year and reach a Target Zone within $150k - $200k within MM 2 and 3 SD above (orange the red trend-lines respectively). Last but not least, take a look at the 1M RSI, which is also on a symmetry with the previous Cycles and once it touches the Lower Highs trend-line, we should consider to start taking profits regardless of whether of the range the price might be at the time.
But what do you think? Are you prepared for a 'hot' June and if yes, how high do you think BTC will go? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin on the Brink of a New Bull Run Post-HalvingBitcoin's price has begun to surge once again, indicating a potential new bull run following its recent halving. The price action is currently within a bullish channel, and technical indicators combined with Fibonacci ratios suggest the onset of a fresh bullish impulse.
The Halving Effect: A Catalyst for Price Appreciation
On April 19, Bitcoin underwent its fourth halving event. These halvings, which occur approximately every four years, are integral to Bitcoin's monetary policy. They aim to maintain scarcity by halving the inflation rate, which has now dropped to just 0.85%—a lower rate than that of gold, often deemed the ultimate store of value and inflation hedge.
Over the long term, the reduction in Bitcoin's inflation rate is expected to drive price appreciation. As demand for Bitcoin increases, the limited supply of 21 million coins will face increasing pressure, creating significant potential for price rises.
Even in the short term, the halving effect enhances Bitcoin's attractiveness as an investment. Historically, Bitcoin's price has risen by an average of 125% in years when a halving occurs. This suggests that, starting from the beginning of the year, Bitcoin's price could potentially exceed $100,000, offering substantial returns given the current price around $69,000. Furthermore, Bitcoin's best performance typically happens in the year following a halving, with historical gains exceeding 400%.
Significant Institutional Interest and Bitcoin's Role in the Financial Landscape
For much of its history, Bitcoin's rise has been driven by retail investors. However, this dynamic is set to change significantly. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs has made it easier for institutional investors with vast capital reserves to invest in the cryptocurrency. This influx of major Wall Street players is likely to exert unprecedented pressure on Bitcoin's finite supply, echoing its early days of high demand.
The approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF also reflects the market's current perception of Bitcoin and its role in the financial ecosystem. In contrast, Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, faces ongoing debates over ETF approval as regulators determine whether it is a security or a commodity. This regulatory scrutiny extends to all cryptocurrencies, creating uncertainty about their classification.
It's crucial to note that an SEC classification of a cryptocurrency as a security does not spell the end for that blockchain. Many of these assets are highly decentralized and would continue to operate even if faced with litigation from the SEC. Cryptocurrencies are traded globally and are not confined to the laws of any single country.
However, regulatory risks are a significant concern for markets. Bitcoin stands out as a relatively safer investment in this regard. The SEC has already classified Bitcoin as a commodity, placing it outside the agency's regulatory control. This classification grants Bitcoin unique staying power and a degree of protection against regulatory scrutiny.
Bitcoin's current bullish trend, supported by the recent halving and growing institutional interest, sets the stage for potential substantial price appreciation. The reduced inflation rate and increasing demand create a strong case for Bitcoin's long-term value. Meanwhile, its classification as a commodity provides a safeguard against regulatory risks, further solidifying its position as a leading asset in the cryptocurrency market.
BTC / m1the massive HS on BTCUSD/M1
M1 is the money supply that encompasses physical currency and coin, demand deposits, traveler's checks, and other checkable deposits.
For a few years ive been very curious about this way to look at things.
It looks very very bullihs, and so does SPX/M1 as I link to here :
It all can fit as a new dot.com boom featuring AI and crypto.
I mean.. isnt that coming ?
$BTC is testing the major resistance zone#bitcoin #btc price is about reclaim the trend line. If breaks out resistance zone #btcusd price will be more optimistic. This' also the bearish retest of the zone #btcusdt lose the dormer trend support and so i call here as major resistance zone. Not financial advice.
Bitcoin: Push Back To 70Ks?Bitcoin support at the 66K area continues to hold and may be the higher low (wave (iv)) that may lead to a higher high over the coming weeks (see illustration). In order for a dramatic new high like 80K to be tested, price needs to prove itself by clearing 73K first. The key to navigating this is to WAIT for the market to provide evidence (confirmation), NOT get stuck on an opinion about the future. Even though the broader trend is bullish, UNTIL it breaks out, it is within reason to expect the consolidation to continue.
Recognizing the support/resistance levels within broader consolidations can help to uncover numerous opportunities, especially on smaller time frames. For example, while I consider the 66K area a minor support on this time frame (see arrow), this location is a great spot to anticipate longs on day trade time frames like the 1 or 5 minute chart.
When using such levels as a form of context to guide decisions, traders often do not understand how to shape expectations relative to the magnitude of the time frame. For instance, price movements on a 1 minute chart are typically smaller than a 5 minute or 1 hour chart. Knowing this should shape expectations in terms of reward/risk. This is one of the problems I aimed to solve when coming up with the idea for Trade Scanner Pro by automating the exit points using the average true range (ATR).
The same can be said about the 70K whole number resistance area. This is an ideal location to WAIT for sell signals, whether to take profit or an aggressive counter trend trade short. Again the location provides a point of reference where we can anticipate a particular price behavior or opportunity. It is up to the MARKET to confirm and even then, there is a chance it can get stopped out (markets are mostly RANDOM).
My analysis is meant to shed light on a select range of possibilities over the coming week for day and swing traders. I have to remind people of this because many come to these articles expecting to gain knowledge of the future. It will take some time to realize effective risk management has NOTHING to do with where price will be in the future. There is no way to forecast the future accurately, ESPECIALLY using the limited information that is available on charts.
The idea is to help you prepare for potential opportunities that I believe have a greater probability of a positive outcome because of the price location relative to the trend. The MARKET decides what scenario will play out, not me or anyone else. To align with the market, we must have a passive mindset, good listening skills and the ability to admit being wrong QUICKLY, especially on smaller time frames.
So here is how to prepare of the coming week: IF the low 66Ks are tested, look for longs, IF 66K breaks, avoid longs and reevaluate new levels. IF 70K is tested, look to take profits, or consider aggressive shorts (counter trend). IF 70K is cleared, watch for test of 73K. How you navigate your positions is a function of your risk tolerance and personal style. Most importantly, let the market do the THINKING, you simply adjust to the new information as it appears.
Thank you for your considering my analysis and perspective.