Bitcoin is ABSOLUTELY under Pressure - It MUST react before DECI have been looking at this in detail for some time and have decided to change how I calculate things and here is the result.
There are 2 things of Massive importance to see here.
First is that Curve that PA has been under since 2010
The Lower Dashed Line is the Trend line formed in 2011. It is Strong and it is Valid and PA is currently running along it.
Here is a closer image to show you where we are in relation to it right now. Directly below PA currently, we hit that line around 67K
The Apex of this "Triangle" is December THIS YEAR
PA Has to break Above that Arc, the same Arc that has Rejected PA EVERY TIME since 2011
BUT THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT - IT HAS TO BE and here is why
I am not going to explain the % increase each Cycle Low to ATH, it is in the chart but I do want to show you this,
The first real push of Bitcoin was a massive % rise that created the ATH that formed the 1st point of the Lower Trend line of the New channel. This is A on the chart
The Next push was to B. This push was 1.433% of the Original push A - smaller by a long way in % terms.
These 2 moves created the channel that PA has remained in ever since. ( see dashed upper trend line)
From this point on, we can see that each cycle push , while in channel, has been approx 20% of the previous rise. Or around 1/5 of the size in % terms
Or to put is another way, Each Rise has been a diminishing % rise from previous.
Look at that curve. It has pushed PA down each cycle ATH
This cycle, we are currently at 26.7% of the previous push ( to 2021 ATH ) and it has created a cycle ATH currently.
But is the cycle Over ? - Hopefully NOT
Because if it is NOT over, we need to break through that Curve of resistance by December.
The Much expected 200K ATH is way over that curve and would result in a 55% of previous push rise. That would break the "trend"
This is VERY Different. But Absolutely required.
So, the question that should be on Everyone's lips is "Which is stronger ? The line or the Arc ?"
My expectation is that we will break through. That Arc has been a Major part of the formative years of Bitcoin PA but now, it could prove detrimental. Because, if we do not break through it, It will push Peice DOWN, through that line of Long term support.
We do not want that
SO, Maybe THIS is why the Bulls are waiting for the Weekly MACD to reset to Neutral...PA Needs the strength to break through.
So, Go Buy your Local BULL a Beer ( or white wine lol ) and Lets get on.
Watch this Close. It really is more important that Trumps Reserve, Saylors Love nest or Bezos after burners.................
Bitcoin-btcusd
Bitcoin will reach $221,000The chart explicitly labels a "Breakout" point around December 15, 2024, where the price moves above the $80,000 resistance level of the ascending triangle. This breakout is a significant technical event, suggesting strong buying pressure and a continuation of the uptrend. Following the breakout, the chart notes a "Retracement" phase, where the price pulls back to test the breakout level (now acting as support at approximately $80,000). This behavior is common in technical analysis, as prices often retest previous resistance levels after a breakout to confirm support.
As of March 14, 2025, the current price of $80,228.30 is just above the $80,000 level, suggesting the price may be in the early stages of this retracement or has recently stabilized after testing the support. This positioning indicates potential buying opportunities for traders looking for entry points near this level, with expectations of further upward movement.
Projected Price Target: $221,000
One of the most notable annotations on the chart is the "TG $221,000" label, which stands for "Target Price" of $221,000. This target is projected based on the breakout from the ascending triangle, likely calculated by taking the height of the triangle (the difference between the resistance at $80,000 and the lowest support at $55,000, which is $25,000) and adding it to the breakout level ($80,000 + $25,000 = $105,000). However, the chart's projection to $221,000 suggests a more aggressive target, possibly involving a multiple of the height (e.g., 3x the height, $80,000 + $75,000 = $155,000, still not reaching $221,000) or a Fibonacci extension beyond standard calculations.
Given the significant gap between the current price ($80,228.30) and the target ($221,000), this projection is an unexpected detail, implying a potential multi-fold increase in Bitcoin's value. It aligns with the chart's bullish patterns but involves considerable uncertainty, as market conditions, macroeconomic factors, and adoption rates could influence actual price movements.
Additional Technical Observations
Beyond the ascending channel and triangle, the chart includes several other technical elements:
Support and Resistance Levels: The $80,000 level, initially a resistance during the triangle, becomes a key support level post-breakout. The lower trendline of the ascending channel also acts as dynamic support throughout the uptrend, providing a floor for price corrections.
Volume Indicator (Implied): While not explicitly shown, breakouts like the one labeled are often accompanied by increased volume, which would confirm the strength of the move. Without a visible volume histogram, this remains an inference.
Fibonacci Retracement (Potential): The retracement after the breakout could be analyzed using Fibonacci levels (e.g., 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%) to identify key support zones, though these are not drawn on the chart.
Momentum and Moving Averages (Implied): Although not visible, momentum indicators like RSI or MACD could provide additional insights. For instance, a strong breakout might correlate with overbought RSI, while the retracement could indicate a return to neutral levels. Moving averages (e.g., 50-day, 200-day) might have supported the uptrend earlier, with the price potentially approaching these for support during retracements.
Implications for Traders
The analysis suggests Bitcoin is in a robust bullish trend, supported by the ascending channel, triangle breakout, and projected target. Traders may consider the following strategies:
Buy on Pullbacks: Look for buying opportunities near the $80,000 support level, especially if volume and other indicators confirm buying pressure.
Target Setting: Use the projected target of $221,000 as a long-term goal, but be mindful of market volatility and external factors that could affect price.
Risk Management: Given the significant gap to the target, set stop-loss levels below key support (e.g., below $80,000) to manage risk.
BITCOIN Is this a Falling Wedge bottom formation?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is trading since the February 28 Low within a Falling Wedge pattern, below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and at the same time supported by the 1W MA50 (red trend-line).
Throughout its dominant Bull Cycle pattern, the +2 year Channel Up, it has formed another 6 such Falling Wedges, all below the 1D MA50 and all turned out to be market bottom formations, which paved the way for an immediate bullish break-out. On all occasions, the 1D CCI has been almost as low as on the February Low.
The shortest rebound it made before another break below the 1D MA50, was +26.68% and the highest was +106.96%. As a result this gives us a minimum immediate potential Target of $96800 and a maximum of a little more than $150000. Given that the price has touched the bottom of the long-term Channel Up, like the bottom formations of September 06 2024 and September 11 2023, it is quite likely to see the stronger rebound probability taking place.
But what do you think would be the case? Is this a classical Falling Wedge bottom break-out formation and if so what may be the Target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin’s Wild Ride: Up or Down, I’m Watching!Hey there, trading family—just chilling and watching Bitcoin like it’s my buddy on a rollercoaster. It’s hanging out near that FWB:83K spot, and I’m like, “Dude, if you bust through, I can see you tearing up to $120K-$130K—time for a high-five and a snack!” But if you start slipping with those lower lows, no biggie. You might drop to $79,600, then maybe $78,700, $77,000, or even $73,500. I’m just kicking back, enjoying the show—up or down, it’s all good vibes! If you liked this, comment below, boost, or follow—let’s keep the trading love going!
Kris/ Mindbloome Exchange
Trade Smarter Live Better
BITCOIN Money Supply, Dollar and Bonds pushing for MEGA RALLY!This is not the first time we publish a Bitcoin (BTCUSD) analysis in relation to the U.S. Dollar Index (green trend-line) or Chinese Bonds (red trend-line) and Global Liquidity (blue trend-line). In fact we have been doing this since the late 2022 bands in China and like the highly bearish sentiment that was in the market then, we decided to dive into this cross-asset analysis yet again in order to put the current sentiment in perspective.
Well it couldn't be more relevant. What we discovered is that all the financial assets mentioned above have yet again aligned to offer the strongest bullish confirmation for BTC since the November 2022 Bear Cycle bottom!
More specifically, we are a little past the point where the DXY peaks and declines aggressively, Global Liquidity bottoms and starts rising, while Chinese bonds (our CN02Y/CN20Y ratio) bottom and rise aggressively. In the past 10 years this combination of events has happened 6 times, 2 times during each Cycle: one at the bottom of the Cycle and the other when the final, most aggressive rally starts.
Notice also that (naturally) this is where the stock market (SPX, black trend-line) also bottoms and starts rising aggressively.
As a result, the above market conditions are an indication that despite the recent monthly correction and turbulence due to a number geopolitical and other trade fundamental reasons, the macro-economic parameters remain intact for the wider picture of this Cycle. Truthfully, this is where an announcement next week of future Fed Rate Cuts would come very handy.
So what do you think of this analysis above? Are you fearful that a new Bear Cycle is starting or more confident that the market will soon recover and price a new High? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin - The Uptrend Remains 100% Valid!Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) can create a textbook break and retest:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Over the past couple of weeks we have only been seeing a consolidation on all cryptocurrencies, governed by the slow movement on Bitcoin. With today's drop Bitcoin is now approaching the previous all time highs, which are now acting as a major support, pushing price much higher.
Levels to watch: $70.000, $300.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
BTCUSD: Last 1W MA50 rebound to the top of the CycleBitcoin remains bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 40.004, MACD = -3484.800, ADX = 36.461) but today we see the first recovery attempt. The technical reasoning behind it is that the market is testing its 1W MA50 and in due time it will price the new HL of the Bull Cycle and form the bottom that will hold for the rest of the year until the cycle's very top. This is no different than the last two Cycles, the 1W RSI is even rebounding on its S1 level. Based on that pattern we are looking at a potential Cycle peak between 150k - 200k.
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BITCOIN Cycle pattern completed. Year-end Target locked at $150kBitcoin (BTCUSD) is showing the first signs of life after nearly testing the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) early this week. Whether this leads to a full on recovery or not, can been partially answered by this Cycle's price action so far.
Historically we do know that BTC's Bull Cycles so far tend to peak towards the end of their 3rd year and that's 2025. This Cycle has been predominantly trading within a Fibonacci Channel Up, since its very start, the November 2022 bottom. Its 1W MA50 has been supporting since the March 13 2023 break-out, so it's been exactly 2 years of holding and throughout this time period has provided two excellent buy opportunities.
As you can see, the Channel Up can be classified into two main Phases so far: each has a Primary correction (red) of more than -30% drop, followed by a rally (blue), then a Secondary correction (yellow) of more than -20%, followed by the second and last rally (blue). All rallies have so far been around +100%. Based on this model, we are now on the Secondary correction of Phase 2.
Notice that all corrections (either primary or secondary) hit or approached apart from the 1W MA50, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from their previous Low. This is actually the first time that the price has marginally broken below the 0.382 Fib. At the same time, the 1D RSI almost got oversold last week (34.50) and according to the August 05 2024 (Higher) Low, this is were a series of RSI Higher Lows would be a signal of a new bottom formation.
The bottom and recovery process may take a while though, another 4-6 weeks. According to the Time Fibs (blue dashed vertical lines), each correction (whether primary or secondary) has ended at or a little before the 1.0 Fib with the 0.0 being the bottom of the previous one and 0.5 Fib the Top of the rally. Based on this, we can expect the new rally to start by the week of April 28 the latest.
So now as to how high this can get, if it repeats the 'weakest' rally of the Channel's three so far, it should rise by +95.95%, which gives us a straight price of $150000 as a Target. If the rally symmetry also holds, this should come by late September, perfectly aligning with Bitcoin's historic Cycle expectation for the final year.
Do you think that will be the case? Recovery starting within 4-6 weeks and if so, are you expecting $150k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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MicroStrategy - Wave D Since 2002 Just Completed...AriasWave analysis indicates that MicroStrategy, now known as Strategy, is poised for a sharp decline reminiscent of the Dot-Com Bust era.
The anticipated drop in Wave E is expected to coincide with a significant downturn in broader indexes and cryptocurrencies.
Additionally, my latest Bitcoin analysis, set to be released later this week, suggests that Bitcoin has finally peaked, and a price collapse is only a matter of time.
BITCOIN Short term Channel Down rebounding.Bitcoin / BTCUSD is having a rebound after the price hit the bottom of the 10 day Channel Down.
The bullish wave should attempt at least a +13.73% rise (similar to the previous one) and target 87000.
That is the short term bullish plan as the price may be rejected again at the top of the Channel Down.
If however the 4hour MA200 breaks, it will be the first time since February 4th and should be enough to restore the long term bullish bias back to the market.
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
ETHEREUM CRASH TO $786! (UPDATE)Remember my Ethereum sell prediction from September 2024? Despite it pushing a little higher, price has remained within the trendlines & bearish channel, keeping its trend in a 'downtrend'.
We're still within a 3 Sub-Wave (A,B,C) corrective channel, with the current bearish move down being Wave C. Wave C target still remains around $786🩸
Bitcoin Drops 27% from Record High Amid Market SelloffBitcoin fell to $78,000 on Monday, down 27% from its all-time high, as crypto and stock markets lost a combined $6 trillion. Crypto market capitalization dropped 4% to $2.67 trillion, its lowest since November 9, shedding $1.2 trillion since December 17. Bitcoin hit a multi-month low, falling from its January peak of $107,000. Stocks mirrored the decline, with the S&P 500 losing $1.4 trillion—its worst single-day drop since 2022. The sharp selloff reflects a shift from risk assets, with the Fear and Greed Index plunging to 14, a two-year low, signaling extreme risk aversion. This contrasts with last year’s post-Trump election rally, where the index peaked at 92.
Technically, the first support for BTC is at $78k, with subsequent levels at FWB:73K and $65k. On the upside, the initial resistance is at GETTEX:89K , followed by $95k and $100k.
BITCOIN at Key Support – Ready to Bounce to $94,000?COINBASE:BTCUSD is trading at a key demand zone, which has previously acted as strong support within the ascending channel. The recent retracement has brought the price back into this area, increasing the probability of a bullish reaction. The confluence of the support zone and the ascending trendline suggests that buyers may step in to regain control.
If price confirms support within this zone, we could see a bullish continuation toward the $94,000 level, aligning with the channel’s midline and the next major resistance. However, a failure to hold this level could invalidate the bullish bias and signal a potential shift in momentum.
Traders should monitor for bullish confirmation signals, such as rejection wicks, bullish engulfing patterns, or increasing buying volume, before considering long positions. A breakout above minor resistance levels along the way could further strengthen the bullish outlook.
If you agree with this analysis or have additional insights, feel free to share your thoughts! 🚀
BTC/USD Breakdown! Bearish Target: $78K🔍 BTC/USD 30-Minute Chart Analysis
📉 Market Structure:
The chart displays an ABCDE corrective pattern, likely a descending wedge or contracting triangle, which has now broken to the downside.
Price action shows a breakout below the wedge, leading to further bearish momentum.
The 200-period moving average (red line) is acting as resistance, reinforcing the downward trend.
📊 Current Price: ~$83,057
🔻 Bearish Target: $78,049 (marked as the potential support level)
🛑 Key Observations:
Rejection from wave E indicates a lack of bullish strength.
Lower highs and lower lows confirm a continuation of the bearish trend.
Potential retest of ~$85,000 before dropping further.
🚀 Trading Insights:
Bearish Bias: Short opportunities on pullbacks toward resistance.
Bullish Reversal? Look for price action near $78,049—if buyers step in, a potential bounce could occur.
⚠️ Watch out for:
Sudden Bitcoin volatility (news-driven moves).
A fake breakdown (if buyers reclaim above ~$85,000).
Bitcoin's Battle for 79,478 – Reversal or Further Decline?VIDEO:
🤖💥 Bitcoin's Battle for 79,478 – Reversal or Further Decline? 📉🚀
Bitcoin has taken a massive dip, crashing 7.8% along with Ethereum. But the real question now: Is this the bottom, or are we heading lower?
Key levels to watch:
📌 79,500 – A reclaim could push BTC back towards 83,000.
📌 Failure to hold could send Bitcoin to 66,000 or even 62,000.
📊 The Nasdaq is also testing key support, and Tesla is in trouble, struggling at $220. Altcoins are getting crushed, with only Shiba Inu showing some resilience.
🌍💣 Meanwhile, external factors are brewing – Tesla, X, and even Elon Musk are facing attacks, and broader market sentiment remains shaky.
Will Bitcoin rebound, or are we heading for a deeper correction? Let me know your thoughts below!
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoCrash #Trading #MarketAnalysis
BITCOIN Great Investment Opportunity! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
BITCOIN keeps falling down
In a strong correction move
But the coin will soon hit a
Massive key horizontal
Demand level of 72,500$
From where a bullish
Rebound and a move up
Is likely to happen
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
BITCOIN Is this the last defense before the narrative changes?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) got yet again increasingly volatile during the weekend and is approaching the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). As mentioned on the title, this is "the last defense" for BTC as so far this price action hasn't diverged a bit from the Channel Up of the 2015 - 2017 Bull Cycle but a break and 1W candle close below it, would jeopardize that.
** The key 1W MA50 **
In fact the only times that Bitcoin closed below its 1W MA50 during a Bull Cycle and the Cycle continued was of course during the March 2020 COVID global market flash crash and November 18 2019. But the current Bull Cycle is nothing like in 2019 - 2021, it doesn't have the initial overextension of the Libra hype (May - June 2019) or Elon's early 2020 hype nor of course the pandemic shutdown. On the contrary it is incredibly similar with 2015 - 2017 with the only difference being that, thanks to the ETF launch in January 2024, the market marginally breached the previous All Time High (ATH) earlier.
** Symmetry playing out **
So back to the similarities between those two Cycles. The Cycle count indicates that we are at the end of the (blue) Bull Rectangle in March 2017 (847 days) when the price almost tested the 1W MA50 and then started the (green) Parabolic Phase to new ATHs (217 days). Even in terms of 1W RSI and MACD, the two fractals are similar, with the RSI being on its 2nd 'Buy the dip Volatility Phase' bottom and the MACD on its 2nd Bullish Cross.
** How high can it get? **
Now as to how high the new Cycle Top can be, can be anybody's guess, but if it repeats the less aggressive 2021 Top, it could be on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, i.e. around $170k, while if it repeats the (much more unrealistic for such short period of time in terms of market cap) 2017 Top, it could be on the 2.382 Fib ext, i.e. around $520k. The worst case scenario is to have Fib extension Tops on a decreasing rate, in which case the 1.5 - 1.382 levels are next, giving us a potential target range of 120k - 145k, which would be almost a Double Top similar to November 2021.
So what do you think? Will the 1W MA50 come to Bitcoin's rescue yet again or the narrative will change this time? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin will make a Breakout Chart Analysis:
1. Timeframe and Price Context
Timeframe: 4-hour chart (each candlestick represents 4 hours of trading).
Price Levels:
The current price is $92,812.72, with a slight decrease of 0.23% as of the latest data point.
The price range on the chart spans from approximately $80,000 to $108,255 (the recent peak).
Trend Overview:
Late 2024: Bitcoin experienced a strong uptrend, peaking near $108,255.
Early 2025: The price has corrected downward, forming a descending triangle pattern, with the current level at $92,812.72.
2. Key Patterns and Annotations
Descending Triangle:
The chart features a descending triangle pattern, a common consolidation pattern that can signal either a continuation of a downtrend or a reversal.
Upper Resistance: A horizontal resistance line around $108,255 (the recent peak where the price failed to sustain higher levels).
Lower Support: A descending trendline (sloping downward) that the price has been testing, currently near $92,000-$93,000.
The price is nearing the apex of the triangle, suggesting an imminent breakout (upward or downward).
Accumulation Zone:
The chart labels an "Accumulation Zone" near the $80,000-$85,000 range, indicating a potential area where large players (e.g., whales) may have been buying during the correction.
The current price ($92,812.72) is above this zone, suggesting a bounce or stabilization after reaching this support.
Breakout Prediction:
An upward arrow with a Bitcoin symbol points toward $120,000 or higher, indicating a potential bullish breakout targeting a new all-time high.
3. Support and Resistance Levels
Support:
The $92,000-$93,000 level is acting as immediate support, aligning with the lower boundary of the descending triangle.
The $80,000-$85,000 accumulation zone is a stronger support level, likely a key area of buying interest during the correction.
If this support fails, the next level could be around $75,000 (a psychological and historical support).
Resistance:
The $108,255 level is a major resistance, marking the recent high.
The next significant resistance could be around $120,000 (as suggested by the arrow), a psychological level and a potential new all-time high.
4. Volume and Momentum (Not Visible but Inferred)
Volume bars are not clearly visible, but typical behavior suggests:
Volume likely peaked during the rally to $108,255 and decreased during the correction as selling pressure eased.
A breakout would require a volume spike to confirm, especially if the price breaks above the descending trendline (around $100,000-$105,000).
Momentum indicators (e.g., RSI or MACD) could indicate if Bitcoin is oversold or showing bullish divergence, supporting a reversal.
5. Potential Scenarios
Bullish Breakout:
If Bitcoin breaks above the descending trendline (around $100,000-$105,000) with strong volume, it could confirm the breakout.
The target of $120,000 (a ~29% move from $92,812.72) is plausible, especially if whale accumulation in the $80,000-$85,000 zone drives momentum.
This aligns with the upward arrow and suggests a resumption of the prior uptrend.
Bearish Breakdown:
If the price fails to hold the $92,000-$93,000 support and breaks below, it could signal a bearish continuation.
The next support at $80,000-$85,000 would be tested, potentially leading to further downside toward $75,000.
Consolidation:
If the price remains within the triangle (between $92,000 and the descending trendline), it might continue to consolidate until a catalyst (e.g., market news, volume surge) triggers a move.
6. Market Context
Whale Activity: The accumulation zone at $80,000-$85,000 supports your earlier narrative of whales accumulating during corrections to set up a breakout. This could indicate strategic buying by large players.
Market Sentiment: As the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin’s price heavily influences altcoins like Ethereum and UNISWAP (from your previous charts). A bullish breakout in BTC could trigger similar moves in the broader market.
Timing: The chart’s position near the triangle’s apex suggests a breakout could occur within days to a week on a 4-hour timeframe, depending on market conditions.
The bitcoin will continue decreaseOn the monthly chart it is visible that the turning figure was created. MACD shows divergence, other technical indicators it confirm. I expect decrease the price at least up to 0.5 according to Fibonacci - the purpose for me 62800.
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market.
Two key scenarios for BTC - Q2 mostly sideays/down!Two scenarios at this point:
We have a new range, but it could break quickly since there’s an active downtrend expiring on the 20th.
That means I can’t blindly bid into the low $80Ks like before—it’s getting trickier, and we’ll need to rely on proper triggers.
If it breaks down and continues lower, I’d like to see the GETTEX:59K -$62K zone get tested.
The **uptrend remains intact**, and I think we can all agree that **Bitcoin could be higher later this year**. I don’t see it going above **$200K**, but at the very least, I expect it to challenge its current **ATHs**.
For now, I’m just focusing on **key levels** and patiently waiting for **triggers—if any**.
There are plenty of ways to play this:
- Another **mid-level retest** and **reclaim** → I'll go **long**.
- If it **bounces**, I’ll look to **short** into the **low $90Ks**.
- If **nothing happens** and it starts **breaking down**, then **$75K** is a key zone, and **$71K** becomes pivotal for both **longs and shorts**.
Just **keep your levels clear** and **wait** until they are breached.